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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  November 26, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST

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.oo little, too late huber looks for -- uber looks for a $40 billion valuation, more than twice the value in june. european markets, they are pretty much a little bit makes. this is the problem in the ftse 100. thes all about thomas cook. ceo stepping down. a little bit of a darker outlook in terms of bookings. let's get straight to the market open. >> in just 15 seconds, now 20 seconds into trading, let's see how we are opening. across the board tends to be higher. ftse up 1/10 of a percent. similar in france. we are meant to be following asia higher overall, extending that two-month high. data pretty mixed across the board.
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gdp a lot stronger than expected. a surprise drop in consumer confidence. what will we see for durable goods? what will we see in terms of jobless claims? keep an eye on the ftse because figures will come out. let's look at oil. oil has moved significantly. down 2%.ck, we are at $78 24. at are we trading that blow the moment? it is because many -- that a low at -- why are we trading so low at the moment? ryan chilcote managing to color the ceo.
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it seems russia does not mind if this price becomes $60. they say they can handle it. we have saudi arabia adding its voice, saying they don't see a need to cut reduction with them or the united states. all of this putting so much pressure on the oil price. let's have a look at what it is doing to oil stocks. could that be sending some oil related stocks lower on the back of oil prices. similar move that the french oil maker total. keep in mind also some concerns a trialing potentially in france. claims of corruption related to iranian contracts. bp trading lower. all of this really showing what oil concerns there are. let's look at some other stocks today. thomas cook unchanged, maybe waiting to open because herriot green is to lead.
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i really surprise move. she moves with immediate effect. she says, my job is done. i have increased market capitalization of thomas cook more than 1000%. she has taken it from 148 million pounds to in excess of 2 billion pounds. she says she wants a fresh challenge, but why leave so abruptly? the company sending warning tougher trading environment is set to come. they are more measured about their four-year outlook for next year. 44%, but we will wait to see how thomas cook opens. and congress group is down. the ninth biggest employer in the world. they fear their organic sales growth was up 4%, better
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dividend than expected, but there seems to be concerned that shares are down. daily mail up 4/10 of 1%. also they have got a risk management solutions catastrophe project that keeps being delayed. most visitedthe newspaper website in the u.k. in the english language. it seems their revenues are doing pretty well. >> thank you so much. a wrapup of the main stories we are watching. watch out for thomas cook. t's not open yet. we are expecting it to open lower. that is how markets are looking. at the top of the agenda are moves in oil. the strategist. great to have you on the program. jean-claudeer --
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juncker. for oil they are not going to cut. >> it seems like a mixed message. they were saying they are going to reach a stabilization of the oil price, but no real signs of it. it seems to be starting to drive some of the global flows at the moment. you have the asian economies that stand the most to gain. the secondary effect is are we beginning to see affects on consumers? it is one of the simplest things when they start to see natural prices drop at the pump. they start to think they can spend more, and that starts to spur growth. can it go much lower? we suspect not. does it stabilize? let's see. >> you are not expecting a shock, because a lot of people are. >> no, i don't think it is going to happen.
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people love to see the volatility to drive markets, but i don't see it happening. i think we are going to remain in the lower environment for the time being. >> without any cuts. you don't think opec are bluffing? think there is less controlled than ascribe to it. there is less control and an awful lot of bargains struck about who is going to continue producing and who says they won't continue producing but probably will anyway. it is less controlled than you is there going to be a major shock? i don't think so. if we start to see oil prices stabilize, it's not so much looking at the oil market i am concerned with. it is what are the effects in other markets. due to the recovering indian economy and the other asian economies? what does it mean for russia --
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what does it do to the recovering indian economy and the other asian economies? what does it do for russia? >> if you look at the shot, it is it is all geopolitics. that is going to take center plan unless the juncker succeeds. >> that is all whole box full of sandwiches short of a picnic. the juncker plan seems to be more about transferring what the e.u. is already doing and dressing it up as new lending program. >> we will have much more on that shortly. i just want to show viewers what we saw. thomas cook shares are down 20%. this is after they said that revenue missed, but we also heard from the ceo herriot green. leaving the company. thomas cook is down 20% at the open. the stock price was delayed.
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here is a look at the markets in general. we are seeing a lot of games, except for the ftse. it is still gaining. that is the thomas cook affect. we are back in two.
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>> welcome back. opec's meeting in vienna starts tomorrow, but the world oil producers have already gotten down to business.
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the leading suppliers from nations providing one third of the world's crude oil that together last night to see if cut inuld agree to a output. ryan chilcote was there and got the only interview with the ceo of the largest traded oil company. a big day. did it yield anything? in theid yield something sense the countries agreed to watch oil prices, but that's something that is very different from the countries agreeing to cut output. that's one of the reasons we saw oil fall to a four-year low. were fourere countries that have the ability -- the stomach to cut prices cut output to boost prices, it is the countries that met yesterday. saudi arabia, venezuela, russia, and mexico. remember in 1999 the price of
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barrel.ed below $10 a cut output.to no action yesterday. him after the meeting and tried to get an understanding of why we didn't see a supply cut? >> do you think of supply cut would raise the price of oil sufficiently to accomplish the ?ask >> you need to look at the fundamentals and subjective factors on the market. the fundamentals are that there is an overproduction of oil and supply exceeds demand. that's not so critical it could force prices down in the long-term. of the fundamental factors is dropping support for the dollar.
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i would also list the increase of shale oil production in the u.s. as an objective influencer. for how long is something we need to look into further. on additionaled monitoring and new consultation. that is really important for all of us. this monitoring will allow us to formulate new proposals to react to the situation on the market. sent oil pricets down yesterday. oil was up 1% going into that interview. it fell on the back of it. there are a lot of investors out there that now know those poor cut,ries are not going to
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but we still have opec ahead of us. >> what does this mean for the opec meeting in vienna? guess if the idea of a supply cut is a hot potato, it has been tossed into opec's court, and they can decide. we have heard from some of the smaller countries in opec like iran that they are not going to cut a single barrel simply because they cannot afford to. it comes down to saudi arabia and what the oil minister is going to do. know, we like to go for speed walks -- he likes to go in theed walks at 6:00 morning. he did so and said nothing about -- of substance in either of
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those speed walks, but he did indicate when he got there he does believe the market is oversupplied. that's something different from saying he is going to cut. if any country has the spare capacity to cut, it is saudi arabia. they could do that. remember, he has another problem on his hands, and that is u.s. inel producers, and the fear general is if they do cut production they would lose market share to u.s. shale producers. bys is not an easy meeting any stretch of the imagination. >> inc. you so much. so much.you ryan chilcote on the ground with the oil minister. bill, we were talking before. you don't expect oil price to go down? you expected to go up because the shell price revolution will pan out as such. >> we have a lot of factors.
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key thing is a lot of producers cannot afford to cut supplies. that keeps prices low. what is going to change the supply dynamic is the expectation in the states. prices come down, that changes the attractiveness of or fracking. i also think you have got these issues such as the pipeline and not going through because of worries about the environment, and then we start to see maybe next year some of the promises made for shale oil in terms of how much it is going to deliver at how it will be to followtional start little short because prices have fallen and made some things no longer attractive. that's what we might see people start to worry -- that's when we might see people start to worry less about the u.s. becoming dependent on foreign production and what the fundamentals are.
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thehe other big story is juncker plan. started talking at the european parliament. he says europe needs a kickstart. he says europe needs to boost investment. i want to go to that in a couple seconds. i want to ask you. 300 billion is structured in a way where he wants arrive at investment to come in there. will it kickstart growth? will we see it transfer into the real economy? >> it is about implementation but also new money. this is not new money. this is basically changing the way in which eu grants are given out to change infrastructure. take is this is another layer of bureaucracy. it makes the you look like they are doing something. i really want to hear this man look -- and makes the eu
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like they are doing something. i really want to see this man say they are doing something. let's have new money and new policies. i think the chances in europe are very slim because of the divisions. >> he can tell you whatever he wants, but he is not a decision-maker. he is a policymaker. that's the problem. does he not have a better chance than the previous commissioner because he staunchly believes in the project? >> he should have a better chance because the problem is so much worse. suffering a longer result of the global economy slowdown. europe is the driver of the next economic crisis. , but he'shat absolutely hog-tied in terms of his possible reaction to it. this announcement is just taking from one part of the budget to another. >> listen to what mr. juncker
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had to say. is to provide a risk bearing capacity that can unlock additional investment. our plan is built on three main pillars. creating a new fountain for strategic investments, guaranteed with public money. the front will be able to million -- 315 billion over the next three years. get some say this is not enough. this is aremind you great effort to mobilize the new budget to trigger additional investment and without changing the rules. i know some of you are worried about the impact on the research
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and infrastructure allocations. this will mean money is lost, but this is not the case. for every euro there are 15 euros for infrastructure. we are not just moving money around. we are maximizing the input. if member states step up and contribute, the effect of this amount will be bigger. the second plank of our package is as follows. we are going to create a credible project pipeline packageby an investment
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to promote investment in european projects. this is not the job of politicians. we don't select the project. we should be modest in that regard. that is the responsibility of specialists who have the necessary experience and requisite know-how. the fund will have an investment committee made up of experts to theyt it and make sure assess the socioeconomic benefit and added value to the european union. the third component of the package is an ambitious roadmap, viral genes of which -- by means of which we want to make europe more attractive to investors. that is essential. therefore, we are going to cut the tape and make sure we cut
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the regulatory burden, and this does not only apply at the financial level. above all, this is about setting the right parameters at the regulatory level. in recent years the european avestment rank has done stellar job, and i am delighted they will be the prime mover in this new investment program. i am very pleased they are involved. this is a aaa bank that is not frightened of taking risks, and i believe they can be deployed to benefit europe more effectively because without the european investment bank it would not be possible to have any such investment program, and i would like to take the president of the bank most warmly for the exemplary way in which he has cooperated with us over the last few weeks or even
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months. this commissioner has only been in office for a matter of weeks, but the reason we are able to present this investment package weyou today is because then had a comprehensive exchange of views on the subject back in thatalready, and i am sure the parliament will be able to confirm all of that. things wef important need to make a start on, because after all, we're just at the beginning of this process. do ise are trying to boost growth in europe. member states ought to make their contribution to the fund in order to boost its efficiency. member states are duty bound to do what they can to stimulate
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growth in the european union because every euro made available to this fund can investment,euros of and in return, i promise you that when we look at member we will notts, calculate any contributions made when looking at compliance with stability and growth criteria. we obviously will not be able to predict -- >> jean-claude uecker talking about -- jean-claude juncker talking about his plan. i know this is it going to -- you don't think this is going to filter down the economy. this is to appease the european citizens who are almost on the brink of revolt. >> there are a couple of key things. you are right. there is an element of appeasement. the two critical things i heard
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were first of all, within the , everything that has been done is within the rules, so it is no new money. it is basically trying to reconcile the northern european economies, including the u.k. and germany that are saying they are not putting any money and. the second interest -- any money in. interesting thing is countries that put cash into this fund will not have that counted against them when they calculate their deficit numbers. i am already working out how italy could arbitrage that. if they want to suddenly start work early to expand their economy or do lending throughout italy as in the past 50 years of italian economic history, maybe the way to do that is to give
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money to the eib, and they can lend money to italian projects. that's thenical, but way it works. >> i understand it in the rules. some would argue that's not a bad thing when countries are bad -- are mad they have to put extra money in. if you look at the shocks we were talking about in the next three years, is a geopolitics, and is it the danger the voters will go to the right? if that is the case, does appeasement not achieve what we want, which is a little bit more political unity? >> there seems to be some groundswell. there were comments the pope made about the european union as well. these factors were all addressed, and the eu is putting on that we are changing face. i am sure it will happen, but it's a slow operation. what are the big risks in europe ? nextve elections coming up
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year that will change the environment. >> thank you very much. these are the markets. they are up at the moment. when we come back we look at uber and google. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. this is the picture from the markets. the board.ns across i'm surprised that a ftse is gaining because the biggest loser on the ftse today is down 20%. revenue was a little below expectations and the ceo resigned. jean-claude juncker is speaking. he was speaking a couple of minutes ago and we have another news conference on that 300 billion euro plan in a few moments.
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let's get specific reaction with mark barton. >> the biggest one is the ceo leaving. shares down by 23%. the biggest fall since november 2011. the coo will take over. her job is done. her job was to transfer the company. you have to say she has transformed the share price. look at that. up by seven times. thomas cook, 23% lower. bt worth watching. orangee telekom and confirmed today they are in talks with bt to sell the wireless carrier. another mobile phone company to expand its mobile offering in the u.k. in couple minutes broadband network.
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bt did not say that the other company was the ones mentioned today, deutsche telekom and orange. drill, the share price is worth noting. it is 15% lower. biggest fall since 2008. lost for the stock since july 2010. the company announced operating profits of $461 million. the operating revenue nearly beat estimates for the killer is the fact the company is suspending its dividend payments to strengthen its allen street, sending shares down by 15%. two big decliners, one small gainer. >>.gov so much. -- thank you so much. these are the bloomberg top stories. jean-claude juncker is unveiling
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a plan to fund 315 billion euros in a new project to the operational budget of next year. the eu commission president called a kickstart for private investment in the euro after the block suffered a lost of hundreds of billions of euros. the unveiling comes a day before the eu parliament holds a vote calling for his resignation over a role in tax deals and luxembourg. bundesbank vice president says takingerest rates are investors with too many risks. selling investors should be prepared for a market correction. oil is trading at a low after cut leaders failed to output in austria. brent is down about 30% since the start of the year.
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our reporter ryan chilcote with the exclusively ceo in vienna before the opec meeting and he started by asking his outlook on oil prices. we decided to monitor oil prices over the next year. it is the prospect of more consultations. quarter, ifry necessary. >> what i'm hearing is not a supply cut. russia's oil industry was privatized a long time ago. owners andrivate there are peculiarities to working in russia. logistics.imate and russia's oil produces a reactive market demand.
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demand and efficiency are the main factors determining market supply. if the demand and the price are adequate to the amount of investment, we are prepared to work with that situation and will work with that situation. woulds idea that russia cut production by 300,000 barrels a day in return for opec , what is up with that? >> russian oil companies are used to working at various prices. a decline in the price of oil, even below $60, isn't so dramatic for us that it would require an immediate cut. he says it can handle low oil prices and we will be monitoring the situation closely. isning us now to talk russia
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the head of emerging-market strategy. great to have you on the program. when you look at the oil price, it you think of the russia. it is not looking good for the russian economy because the oil price may keep falling. isthe russian economy attacked on several fronts, including the oil price, which is pretty taxing. a $10about it, exports -- drop in oil price costs russia nearly $30 billion. imagine how much has been lost over the past few months. >> do you believe the oil price will go lower? if you are analyzing russia, and i do we have to talk about the sanctions, but isn't almost at the moment a pure oil play? >> practically it is. everyone is looking at opec. it looks like the market is divided about what is going to happen there. damage has been done already. the sharp decline in the oil
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price is really undermining the fiscal picture and really undermining the gross picture. it is not looking good. >> do you think the oil price will continue falling further? are we in danger of a shock? saying, notxperts at all. we are not in for an oil shock. some are saying we could see $20 a barrel. >> the outlook is negative on oil price. beyond the tactical a discussion of opec, medium-term. >> do you buy anything in rush at the moment? >> it's tough. i with a the good news, if i want to spin a more positively, bleeding slowed. we are seeing a bit of fatigue kicking in. >> is it fatigue or is it just the russian central bank pouring money into it? >> the russian central bank is
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starting to do a good job at reassuring investors after really struggling at the beginning. i would say it is mostly technical factors. everyone has been super bearish on the ruble and there is only somewhat you can be bearish on. positioning, really. >> is a difficult situation. then walk -- benoit, does that mean you are bearish on any country that may eventually become -- i don't want to say a takeover target, but it possible satellite? >> the whole region is affected by the geopolitics. there is no denying it. the oil price dynamics affect not only russia, but any other large commodity country. nigeria is also under pressure these days. it is a big deal. >> at the same time, the oil
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price is benefiting countries such as india. on who is anending oil exporter and was oil consumer? >> yes. let's be clear about this. lower oil price probably benefits emerging markets, from ,ndia to south africa to turkey the survivability is not much lower now than it was a year ago. forget about that story. the picture is much stronger now than it was. >> thanks so much for that. at emergence market strategy. uber got a $40 billion evaluation, but it might not be a happy thanksgiving for google. ♪
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welcome back. i am francine lacqua in london and this is "on the move." for is filling up its tanks a road trip. it is close to raising $1 billion, which would value the company as a whole at as much as
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$40 billion. this is a very nice bloomberg school. hans nichols joins us from berlin. give us the numbers. do you uber in berlin? >> we can only uber on the weekends. in all of europe, they have trimmed back because they have legal challenges. part of the raising the money is so they can compete in international cities. let's do the numbers. they're are talking about raising $1 billion. back in june, the company was by unit $17 billion. you do this. uh in, it is anywhere from $35 billion-$40 billion. this is all according to people familiar with the matter. fidelity is on board. look at companies pre-ipo that have 11-figure five ua should's, valuations, you have drop off. look at where twitter is.
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$40 billion for pre-ipo valuation, that would send them into remarkable categories. that is the almost the same market cap as delta. salesforce.com. craft. , which is a big rental car company with international fleas. their violation -- international fleets. only $11.3ation is billion. because of the legal challenge, uber has dropped their cost per mile all the way down to $.35 on the euro. it was about 1.40 earlier. some folks had the annual press ball. people were taking ubers across town and getting three euro or lower bills. they face legal challenges. >> i was going to ask you about
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that. the valuation seems china or miss -- ginormous. lawsuitmentioning the in germany. we have the same one in u.k. where only black cabs can use the meter. when do we know of this pans out? >> in germany, it is that the federal court. they have appealed. the appeal court has ruled for uber. it is not that complicated of a case. it will play out in every european country. you have uber. to do something the taxicab association thinks they have a monopoly on. you have a classic fight. in germany, there is an overlay on the safety and insurance issue. there is also an overlay on -- is germany going to host? are they going to be from the two tech companies? uber has quite successfully made
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that case that is germany was to be a tech hub, they have to be open and expect ubers. both sides will be spending a lot on legal fees. >> they certainly will. always a pleasure for the lawyers involved. hans nichols from berlin. it is a big week for google in europe. there is a european parliament to debate and the vote which may cause for the possible breakup of the world's biggest search engine. here's our correspondent caroline hyde. we heard from a lawmaker saying a breakup should be the last resort for google. >> this is the u.s. versus europe. this is competition becoming very political. it is fascinating. it is about the debate happening today at potential vote tomorrow vote on whether search engines -- it does not named google by name, but it is aimed at google -- should be unbundled from commercial services. the u.s. politicians got wind of this potential debate and they have come in hard.
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there are three open letters that have been written to the eu politicians saying the proposals are targeting the u.s. rather than any other tech companies. they raise questions about your commitment to open markets. they say this could have a negative effect on eu-u.s. trade partnership. european lawyers are saying their word. a lawyer brussels says for europe to ask a global player as google to death their structure, they say this is europe overplaying its hand. a quick thing to note is that what they actually debate today, what the vote is on tomorrow, we don't know the exact language. unbundling might not be in it. they could still change that. the fierceness is there. >> which is why we have seen members of parliament try to keep a distance. they are saying, we are not talking about a breakup. exactly what you said. thehis is why we won have -- this is why we have one of the nevers of parliament who
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suggested this debate. your member someone saying is a last resort to make them unbundle. meanwhile, the new eu digital commissioner is pretty for human late against a google -- vehemently against google. he is saying any breakup of google would not happen under my watch. they are trying to step back from under this. overall, this is an ongoing showdown with google. google is that responding for the call for the right to be forgotten clearly enough. they feel they should be imposing that on google.com. they don't like the way that google takes to the media. overall, we are seeing the eu get a lot of backlash from the united states over its views on google and the fact. >> we are waiting for the vote tomorrow. being europe, thanks usually
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drag on. caroline hyde on the latest from google. let's take a very quick look on one stock on the move. it is thomas cook. funding down 21%. this is the most since 21%. the ceo, harriet green, is moving. she says in a statement that she would move on to anot her company wants the challenge was over. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua. it has been a busy month for eu commission president jean-claude juncker. tois also unveiling a plan fund 315 billion euros in new projects by june of next year. it is another attempt by the eu to get private investment back to europe. our international correspondent hans nichols joins us from berlin. we have been hearing from jean-claude juncker. how much money are we talking about and where exactly is it going? >> we don't know where it is going yet because the fund is not operational yet. one of the things they want to do is have this fund -- and it will only be about 21 billion of urine teed -- of guaranteed money.
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we don't know where it will go yet because they want the project to leverage it up. we have had angela merkel say she supports the plan in principle. there is cover from the jury decide -- german side. i'm more interested about what the french and italians have to say about it. some french for calling forth 60,000,000,000-80,000,000,000 in new money. the depending on how you slice it, it is hard to get past that 20 million, have private loans go out to the tune of 60 billion euros, and once these projects get started, have bonds off the back of the projects. the big guarantee is that the eu money would be the first hit is some of the projects go south. it is being used as what is called a leverage he shooter.
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that is how they get -- peashooter. that is how they get it up to 315. we're talking about money from the european investment inc. and that is why i am interested to hear what the french and italian say as what angela merkel said a few minutes ago. it is the backdrop of this budget deadline later this month, november 30. that is when the eu has to rule on whether their budget are in line. if the french want to take a shot of brussels, this is a perfect chance. becauselso interested some are suggesting this is just a way of appeasing europeans, especially the french in terms of the european union trying to take care of you so that they thet vote the right way and elections in the next couple of years. is that fair? >> the question is, is there new money to create jobs and create investment? yes. we saw last month that european
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banks are healthy. have strong balance sheets. how do you get that money off the european bank balance sheet and into projects, whether they are high-tech, infrastructure, inside of the eu to spur job growth? that is going to be the test on what happens so that the right or center or in some cases extremist parties, whether there is job growth or robust economic growth. >> let's bring the conversation back to the u.k. thomas cook is a big mover this one. this is after the ceo stepped down. the news was released at the company's full-year earnings were released this one. anna edwards is here. down 20%. >>. green is leaving to be replaced -- harriet green is leading to be replaced immediately by the coo. she said in a statement that you would step down when the
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challenge was done, the work was done. we don't know where she is going. we don't know why she is going with the immediate affect as well. that will be interesting to find out. she is a fascinating woman. she cold called the ceo when she wanted this. she was running a electronics distribution company. she wanted the job and was clearly ambitious. she was awarded a businessman of talkedr award and she about how you have to be resilient in her industry. have writtenmnists about how little sleep she needs. the markets are reacting negatively. they not only change management but said they are worried about current trading. the grosses more measured and they expect further gross this year at a more moderate pace. >> a fascinating character.
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lucky her. i certainly need much more sleep than that. you can see the south sudan 20%. let's check on oil. we are all over the opec decision. you can see it is down a touch. ♪
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>> the bottom of the barrel. oil slides as expectations dim that opec will deliver supply cuts. we can take the pain. the ceo of russia's largest oil company says his country can cope with lower prices. and, the man with the plan. jean-claude juncker unveils a 315 billion euro spending plan that he says will kickstart european growth.

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