santa makes an appearance at the macy's day parade. black friday, aid comes to beijing and all of china. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is black friday, november 28. i am tom keene. joining me is joseph wiesenthal. scarlet fu. right now, we need to get to the top headlines. we haven't seen the price of oil this low in four years. opec decided not to take action to ease the oil supply glut.

prices are down more than 30 percent. saudi arabia pushed back. here is the secretary general. last four years and a half, we have a price decline. theave to wait and see how market will set. i have said many times you that we don't want to panic. i mean it. federal regulators are now formally debating a nationwide recall of 40 -- a faulty airbags. they have told japan's to cott corporation to recall by december 2. so far, they have recalled the devices in areas with high humidity which is blamed on making bags malfunction.

gains in consumer prices fell for a third month in a row. for the first time ever, yield on the two-year note fell before -- below zero. british prime mr. david cameron is raising the prospect of britain leaving the european union over immigration. cameron wants leaders to restrict welfare payment to immigrants. he also wants to reduce immigration levels. >> immigration benefits britain. but it needs to be controlled. it needs to be fair. and it needs to be centered around our national interest. that is what i want. speeches an attempt to counter the rise of the u.k. independence party which focuses on immigration. some shoppers got an early start to black friday. big-box stores, including walmart, work among the openings last night. yesterday, thes second-biggest day ever for online sales, only last year's

cyber monday was bigger. to equities, currencies, commodities. if this weren't the first after thanksgiving, he would be a huge market day. oil, we will cover that on surveillance. well under 70. there is complacency and the dow is now near 18,000. european yields, which we will touch on here as well, stunningly low yields. joe, help me out here. here is opec. here's the crash of 1986. we are doing it again, aren't we? >> we have been in a long-term .rend for arguably 20 years

now it feels like there is the possibility that we could go for a very long time in the other direction. trichet, it is not just that oil is down but the abruptness. >> the speed. 25% in a matter of weeks. >> 39% since early 2011. is sin,tithe particularly focused on the 10-year. ryan, the news is the news. what was different this time in vienna? >> what was shocking for most of expected thewe cuts and most investors expected the cuts, what no one expected was that they would take another to meet again

imperative that was the real surprise. everybody thought there would not be a cut but they would agree to meet in a few months. after all, with these kind of declines, wouldn't they want to get together in a couple of months and reconsider their decision? but no. >> you look at the headline -- opec going after north dakota. what is the real story? what is the why of what saudi arabia did? truth tois a lot of that. he mentioned 1986. that is when the saudi arabia's took on texas and houston the last time. i think that is a desire by the saudi's to shake out some of the show producers in the united states. as you get to $60 a barrel, that is tough for them. also are not big fans of the iranians. the iranians cannot sell their oil to many people. they have very low production, very low sales. now the price of oil is falling for them as well.

that is good for the saudi's, too. weekend --d over the thursday was not the weekend. i'm sorry. .olks, is the tryptophan i am just coming out of it. when you look at the oil markets, they were down in new york and london. we saw that on thursday about bad oil loans. when will these low oil prices catch up with the city and with wall street? >> that's a good question. it will filter through, right? no one was anticipating this kind of decline this quickly. i think you are looking at three to six months. , we havebeen so sudden to realize that it does take a while to filter through. the normal business cycle. so it will take a little while.

this is really a game changer for years to come, not just for oil really. clearly, the saudi's and maybe the other gulf countries within opec, are comfortable with low prices for a long time. >> thank you so much. there is a huge market story that joe and i will get to. retail, you are sick of it and we are sick of it, stories of black friday. ,ut there is a certain frenzy better income growth, greater confidence, but lurking is amazon. i like what martin lidstrom says in his book. truth and lies about why we buy. here to provide psychiatric study, martin lidstrom. you see the frenzy in the media over black friday. what do we get out of the stupidity of people breaking into a walmart? people are not here anymore.

they are going online. the concept doesn't really exist. people are spending more money on cyber monday. we are clinging on to black friday as an icon. >> what is the appeal? why do people line up at midnight for these doorbuster? is a segment of the population that enjoys it. >> you have to remember that people are addicted to gambling. this is the media keeping it alive because it is almost as simple to tell the world this is the moment for you to shop. people hear that and then they go online. -- are thea video joneses shopping the same way 2014 than they did 10 years ago? >> no, but there is one similarity. word-of-mouth.

the majority of what we do when due to word-of-mouth. only 6% because of social media. that has not changed a lot because we fundamentally do not believe what we see online. talked about how nobody believes what joe tweets out. [laughter] retail and internet has changed because of this trying elation between bloomingdale's or next to it was. >> there has not been any change in the influence of social media having an effect on what we buy. >> exactly. social media right now is the big sales.e nots driving traffic but is lifting the whole bucket. if you see great deals at walmart, a big screen for $200, these are big deals. >> is it going upscale?

this will be a theme with gilbert harrison in the next hour. is it going upscale? >> yes. we see people preparing very carefully to buy a couple of expensive items. but those people going out shopping on black friday and cyber monday are not the big spenders. those who stay a lot of money, they stay home. >> are they profiting? >> what will be the factors that determine how strong the season is? prices, number one, and unemployment rates. yes prices going down a lot, that means the average consumer has $30 more a month. that is why walmart was announcing they are going off 0.5 percent spending because consumers are driven by gas stations at walmart. however, will it influence black friday?

not really. >> our twitter question goes back to black friday. are you spending more this black friday? i think the answer for all across america is yes. so kleinman will join us.

>> brian cornell of target, the chief executive officer live at 10:00 a.m. as they try to get through black friday. the turnaround at target after a challenging 2013 and 2014. look for that on "market makers" later this morning.

we will do a dated check every 20 seconds. joe weisenthal of bloomberg media with me this morning as we look at markets, futures, negative five to what was the --gle market sister stick market statistic that captured your attention? i am paying, attention to the incredible collapse of european bond yields. ,he weakness, the booms obviously french yields, this endless bid for government bonds. , i just saw that u.k. deals are at a 16-month low. people are always calling for the end of the bond rally and now they are getting proven wrong aggressively in europe. >> the synthesis of everything we read his lagarde's new economy.

to me, the real economy has the upper hand this morning. it's not good. >> hopefully, the world can benefit from this collapse in oil we are seeing. hopefully that provides a some breathing room, provides more opportunity for central banks to youulate further because don't have to worry about hitting their efficient targets. -- -- ou do think the accommodative stance of central banks is the belief that that is not going to change anytime soon has been helpful. in the u.s., the economy is getting better. more people have jobs than they have had in years. there is real this. -- there is realness. >> we have martin lindstrom. in juxtaposition of gloom the market, the financial

system, versus breaking down the doors in retail, does that surprise you, that you can have both? >> no. we see the retail sector desperately trying to find a way to persuade consumers to spending money. the margins are getting smaller and smaller. >> to juicy margins? >> what we -- did you say margins? >> what we see is spreading the product categories. the big winner at now is online. youoe mentioned europe and mentioned the french yield. when you look at copenhagen, which produces beautiful women and great sound equipment, what is the mood in copenhagen when they see the greater europe experiment disintegrate? economy is going up right

now despite what everyone was predicting. the second thing we see right now is they couldn't care less about what is happening in the rest of the world except russia. there is no doubt about it that russia is beating europe a lot. >> you talk a lot about the effect on line and the whole idea of going on to the .tores is there any hope for a retailer that will thrive? >> they have to wake up in the trend we see in japan is interesting. retailers finally get it. trends ine rt dubya japan. the first is you go into a brick-and-mortar store. you look around in department stores but you cannot buy a thing. you get a secret code. you go home and you buy the stuff.

the second thing is that secondhand products now displayed on the shelf next to the fresh new products, people buy it just as much as the old products because you can really feel, while, i have to support the environment. >> i can't see that in america. >> to you think it will come to america? >> yet, in a niche way. there is a company called pass the baton. there is a story attached to the product. >> so i go to the nike store on 57th street. you and me. we look at some of these old socks. [laughter] >> he ran in the new york city marathon in the socks. more and more.es you basically by an old chair and it has a story about the owner and the antique aspect. >> this is being done in japan? >> one of the biggest flagship stores in japan right now.

it is fantastic because you buy a new and old at the same time. >> only on bloomberg surveillance. martin lindstrom and joe with me this morning. it is an and no tradition. chief executive officer of macy's will join us. question of the day, we need to hear from you. are you spending more this black friday?

>> good morning, everyone. joe weisenthal with us. you came on a train last night. quarks yet, late-night train. very nice. i guess people do not travel much on thursday night. was the tryptophan express. >> yes. very sedated. >> markets really on the move. stay tuned to bloomberg to see the market debris. mr. brooks in "the new york ambition istalist an energizing gale force. david waxing philosophical on the good and bad of capitalism. there is good and bad and so

much inequality at the same time. >> the entire story defines everything, from the fact that markets are at record highs all around the world and yet this morning we saw italian unemployment hit its highest level ever. this contradiction between those who are durham extremely well and those who are out of a job. lindstrom, the polarity of capitalism seen through retail is luxury versus everything else. how is that skewed right now versus 10 or 30 years ago? luxury segment has become extreme. people are paying outrageous prices for luxury items. they don't want to have the mainstream luxury anymore. luxury hasnstream been cut down. so that is a polarizing trend. not want toople do have mainstream luxury. correct what is the major trend out of china? -- >> what is the major trend out of china?

the -- is still falling. sickan people have become and tired of locke street. the second trend is they invent their own luxury brands come up tent like they are western. you can go to shanghai or beijing and see 50 or 60 different brands you never heard before. they can pretend they are british from the 1800s or whatever. >> looking forward to dive into china. joe, what do you see in the markets right now? you can't not go back to the reverberations from oil. every central bank in the world just got further away from their inflation target.

>> what about high-yield? immediate,ave an like, next week effect in the high-yield market. >> ride. for the last few months, people have been talking about the divergence between equities and high yields. frequently, they move together. but the high yields are so concentrated. there is a lot of energy. threw twosenthal hours of surveillance. china, their black friday, the linkage between china and america.

>> good morning everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." we welcome all of you here. markets are really on the remove. -- on the move. our top headlines. for the first time in four true years the price of oil has fallen below for $70 per barrel. fell more than 7% after opec decided not to cut production which means normally to consumers in the u.s. and elsewhere but it is a bloat to oil-producing countries like russia and venezuela. black friday started early again with some stores opening last night are in an estimated 140

million americans will hit the malls and the web this weekend and they are expected to spend more than last year. yesterday was the second-biggest a for online sales and target had its best day ever. u.s. regulators have made it official, japan's corporation must implement a recall of defective airbags. so far they've only recalled the devices in states with high humidity which might cause the airbags to malfunction. much, gold folks breaking down right now, 11.82 down from the 1200 level. a barrel to add onto the target news and their ceo in the 10:00 hour, ibm edge mark looking at a 12.2% positive pop yesterday. to china and then russia forget chen be ablemrs.

to buy -- martin lindstrom is with biology and he suggests ali pay will revolutionize not china but america. shanghai will be will to go online and buy a trenchcoat out of new york city, am i close? >> this is an ongoing trend because products have a mixed integration of brands. and china first you had the now it ist and affecting things fresh out of the u.s.. >> what is holding up the trend? containwant to everything inside china. that is the reason why right now they have gone through an enormous process where they are developing brands. they had no idea about how to deliver a brand and you can't even mentioned one.

they are going to this process of this is the last that we will see. i will go back to what you said earlier about luxury brand fatigue. it's not just an economic thing people are actually getting tired of this brand? couple weeks ago people had huge logos on their shirt and that had become smaller and smaller. thereafter show that i'm showing bagi have a louis vuitton but now they're disappearing and people are looking at smaller stitching and indirectly saying i know it has. >> i would normally be wearing a really big logo i got it across the street of bloomingdale's. i got a get a tide. ,ne more question on china

luxury automobiles where is the middle class? the middle class is saving more markets that it has done before in the second thing they are doing is to start to buy household goods. we have seen that decorating their homes they did not have money in the past so that means they are not buying expensive close and where they buy expensive blenders and dishwashers and all that stuff. do consumer trends look like in russia beyond the obvious weakening. it's known which russians are large consumers -- >> first of all their cutting almost everything right now but what happens is this self filling prophecy that the russian consumers are hit so we are seeing everything going down three georges there give us an example. one example is if you going to grocery stores for the first you feel like you are back in the 1980's with nothing on the shelf. >> which international brands

are specifically affected, are there particular vulnerable industries are companies? >> the dairy industry in particular. playerrd-largest derry in the world are stocking a lot -- >> those are perishables what about gap bluejeans? >> the problem is the government and russia is talking so much negative about the international brands that people feel they are not part of the tribe and they feel embarrassed. script forp the 9.610 yet the 49.69 does joe weisenthal have a weak ruble tipping point for vladimir putin? have you seen good research? >> it seems like half the pendency if they were you can imagine that as the ruble gets weaker he just kits -- keeps further

entrenching himself into the path that he set up so this hope that the week economy will somehow bring russia back to the table -- >> what do you see martin? >> this will continue for three years because right now he is stubborn and europe cannot come up with a solution and their wedlock. willwill continue and you see all the western companies will continue to escape out. we could go much more on this limit do a twitter question and it is on retail america china and russia, are you spending more this black friday and ,ccording to target ceo you are we'll talk to the target ceo at 10:00 a.m. this morning. this, this really caught my attention thanks to adverseenthal for this, impact on the taxi business, it

is here, these dreaded the dalliance are going down in price, the average price of a new york city medallion the license needed to own a cab south 17% since the spring of last year and the galyon 872,000. wiesenthal bought two over the weekend. taxi owners have complained about motor -- uber and lift. is not justy here new yorkers evidence in chicago boston and washington. there is a reason all these taxi companies have been protesting oversold luciferase late. it seems like -- have been vociferously.r so headline outthat at your old shop saying that uber is thrown out in nevada. the taxi industry will probably have victories here and there but uber has become so

popular so fast that it is actually not a good idea? in ittralia i spent time is the standout right now we're seeing it heavily across the whole of europe and europe unions playing against it as we saw in germany but they will come in. in the end of the day they will survive. it was at strike in paris and the best ad for over there was all these taxes on strike during it is good to force an entire industry to repeat what the principles are a business. >> you of evil titles to your books, rain washed, tricks companies used to manipulate our minds is uber manipulating our minds. >> in a way we are talking about it right now so it is coming that self fulfilling in --

>> what is the biggest trick we encounter? i think it is that we fundamentally think that we are rational but the truth is when we are shopping around 85% of what we do is irrational goa subconscious. >> i totally agree there is nothing like the scene and devil wears product or meryl streep walks in and throws the bag on the desk, that describes the world, am i right? there's nothing like that the toss of the bag with the closet thing so>> and the amazing is when you go into the store you're going to the store of seduction in the more rational people think they are the more vulnerable they are. >> who's doing the best irrational branding? gucci? and hair mes.

>> who? >> the french. sayingeated the model by you want to have it back will come by and wait for two years. branding, theut silk scarves cost $12 each to make? >> what about your bowtie? that's not handmade. lundgren, from terry i wore this to the parade yesterday. >> they say you cannot get it and then we wanted. some of the on irrational actions that we do on black friday, joe weisenthal, seriously the market is really on the move. quick data check negative s&p. west texas american oil under $69 per barrel must stay with us bloomberg surveillance >> good morning everyone,

another boring day of the day after thanksgiving, forget about that the market is on the move which gets us through our single best chart. joseph wiesenthal is with us today.

>> fascinating to see yesterday at the french 10 year yield fell below 1% for the first time in history. there is a lot of attention paid to the fact that german bonds are the safe haven in europe and everyone buys boones, the equivalent of our u.s. treasuries but seeing this mad rush to buy on some more marginal countries -- there is a lot of concern about sustainability and all kinds of questions and now to see it break below 1% is remarkable. >> the swiss yields go from a negative two year to a negative five-year, you have to pay the swiss government to take your money? >> you have to pay swiss banks in multiple ways, the banks in switzerland are having so much money coming in that they are charging you to hold them rather than in the past getting paid. >> it is about disinflation,

you're out of the texas pound buying is there a mood in your that market forces could fix this or will mario draghi have to be more mario draghi-like. >> overtime i imagine market horses will fix things eventually but people don't like to wait for eventually and there is a risk and waiting too long because you could have a political crisis so you see the rise in these anti-eu parties across europe and that is the problem and waiting for markets to fix things because the voters might decide we are done waiting a breakup the whole thing. >> you've been to europe a lot recently is the disinflation evident on the streets or is there more of an effervescent because some of the days are pretty good. would claim across all europe except spain and portugal and spain andrance

portugal by and france is really taking a hit and it will continue to take a huge hit there are always all these things happening in paris but outside it is dead. when you look at switzerland it is booming right now. you say outside of, outside of london, outside of paris, outside of berlin. >> we are seeing these main few days of trying to wrestle tourism. >> let's do our top photos all of these tony romo, dallas cowboys holds the ball under pressure from the philadelphia the first run it all most years and leon mccoy read a hundred 50 yard touchdown and mark sanchez after the jets crushed the cowboys, that is a gorgeous photo that is a

gorgeous -- that is a stunning photo. it looks fake. there is sanchez, our second photo of the day, let's go around the world and this is indonesia, iceland, here in japan mount also blasting magma ash almost a mile into the sky the first ruptured his 22 years and a volcano with a japan air flight cancellation and it read act -- redirects from kumamoto airport visibility. have you done this, you go north of tokyo? it is gorgeous. i'm curious to see what is happening in iceland. , all of europe will go to a standstill. >> our number one photo of the day carefully chosen, this is

the turkey that we ate. a woolly mammoth skeleton was auctioned for $236,000 to a telephone bidder in england. the fossil measures 11 feet and six inches in height. 18 feet long. i think i would at least go for a million. that. upper eastside hedge fund guy. i can just see it. that is gorgeous. very nice job on photos. plummet and a lot going on, well under 70 for those of you who wait two days in the changed market, the correlation of oil to equities, bonds and currencies and all of that next. ♪ >> they are shopping, joe

weisenthal was at it at 2:00 a.m. when he came in for his one hour makeup. that is macy's and there are bodies in the store of the modern wonderfully invested macy's coming up.

we will speak to terry lundgren. vice chairman of the economic club of new york and beside that mr. lundgren has been there since 1998. what a story. this is bloomberg "surveillance." joe weisenthal in for scarlet fu. and brendan greeley is in for both of them. the lovely julie hyman. >> i am in for myself. european lawmakers taking aim at google they want google to consider -- they want the european commission to consider unbundling services and google namet being mentioned by but is being investigated for possible antitrust violation. a peaceful thanksgiving day and ferguson, missouri after three days. troops are still deployed on the streets. the area were most of the

writing took place has been called. michael brown senior rejected the story told by police officer aaron wilson. he was wrong for what he done , so he fixed his story. why are we just now hearing from him? this is the question. if he didn't do anything wrong why even try to reach out. >> you can watch all of the interview with his parents tonight on charlie rose. that's tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. it issbane australia being called the worst storm in decades, the city was tattered by golf ball sized hailstones and wind up to 95 miles per hour. a dozen people were injured. speak onimportant we the geopolitical analyst at

energy aspects joins us right now and richard, at what price is it clicking in for wall street in the city, are we there under $70. >> under $70 it is a lot of problems for producers. independenceu.s. and production for most of the non-opec areas is more expensive, so they don't have those margins and it means as prices keep falling the returns are looking worse and worse. >> when you look at oil, and the second derivative what does it tell you about the future price a week from now or a month from now? i think the market is really focus at the moment on protections on the first half of next year and the fundamentals there are looking very bearish. yet a lot of non-opec supply straightaway even with lower prices and demand growth was

very weak over the summer but the are signs of improvement in the later state will take time. >> the demand side was critical. of the big positive stories in the u.s. in recent years has been the increase in expiration and reduction, when will that story start to fade? i think we can start to see growth slow in the second half of next year if prices stay around where they are now, i do think it will be a dramatic slowdown straightaway but we are already getting the first announcements and that will have an impact on production growth and decline rates in wells and basins that are really high. more question, the saudi arabia really run opec? is this one nation and everyone else? >> i think no decision gets made

opec without saudi arabia being comfortable. they took a tough line going into the talks and that was a reason we did not get a decision. they are now looking for the other members to come forward and not only be willing but to participate with countries like iraq and venezuela they all need to attribute. before june or might be the june meeting. west texas under $70 up there . it goes to equities and bonds in foreign exchange is stunning what we see across the hydrocarbon pears, canada out to one 14 and the ruble 49.99 dramatically weaker russian ruble and joe weisenthal mentioned in the equity market hammered their and the rest of foreign-exchange insurance. thank you so much for joining us biology through

the hour and onto the morning, don't forget our next hour terry lundgren of macy's. ♪ >> the price of oil collapses as

opec declares war on north dakota and the french 10 year breaks under 1%. appearance onan the macy's day parade and the lions win on black friday. retail america will they make it to january. killer thanksgiving and 2014, what is in store for m&a come next year? we are live from our world headquarters in new york. word of the month go? -- november 28. where did the month go? right now let's get to our top headlines. market andks the oil now crude is at its lowest price and four years. decided notr opec to take action to ease a global

oil supply. among those pushing for production to become back to do something about prices that are down more than 30% since june. saudi arabia pushed back and here is opec secretary-general. for the last four years we had a very decent price and now prices decline and that does not mean that we should really rush and do something, we have to wait and see how the market response, i have said many times that we don't want to panic, and i mean it. >> for the last five months opec members have been pumping more oil than they had agreed upon. >> a nationwide recall of those faulty airbags. the airbags are blamed in at least four deaths in the u.s. and so far they've only recalled airbags in areas of high humidity.

in japan the central banks record stimulus is in from boosting inflation, consumer prices fell for the third month in a row and for the first time the zero.s fell below >> a warning from british prime sayingr david cameron the u.k. might leave the u.n. -- eu over immigration. he wants to reduce immigration levels. britainration benefits but it needs to be controlled and it needs to be fair and it needs to be centered around our national interests. that is what i want. >> the speech is seen as his attempt to counter the rise of the u.k. independence party. some big box stores got an early start up to black friday. target.com had its best they ever yesterday.

only last years cyber monday was bigger for walmart. >> thank you so much we go to ryan chilcote in the dramatic drop in oil. a those in vienna expect market reaction that was seen yesterday echo -- yesterday? we knew going into the meeting yesterday that there was not going to be a cut but a lot of people thought that a lot of that was priced in already and the big surprise i guess was that they decided they would meet as usual six months later and a lot of people surprise -- they thought they would meet a few months after that with an emergency meeting because they want to keep a closer eye on oil and set no they seem to be happy with how things are. >> what does it mean for the marginal players of the cartel? venezuela wasin,

the country that tabled the proposal for a cut and they were supported by ecuador and iran would've liked to have seen a cut and they were talking about that going into the meeting and this means a lot of trouble for them, all of those countries need an oil price much higher whenwhere it is now that they go behind those closed doors saudi arabia holds most of the cards and they did not get what they're looking for. immediate news the prime minister speaks this morning on immigration, what has changed in your united kingdom on immigration versus gordon -- five or years ago six years ago. the new is that there is a new party in town called ukip. they have the small elections here called i elections and they have been doing very well in them. this is to the right party,

anti-immigration, anti-eu. they will have a general election come summertime and the prime minister in order to keep the conservatives and power needs to pander to some of this anti-immigration rhetoric that it subscribes to. there is a big shift in this country cracking down on immigration and he said he would crack down but the statistics in a been coming out show something different and that is a big change here. not just for the u.k. but possibly for the whole european experiment. oil prices always help the american consumer the price of oil coming in and crude 72 and below that gilbert harrison with us today after decades of experience, you look natty in your bowtie. you're wearing up "surveillance"

bowtie gecko i've never seen it looks so handsome. what is new about black friday? isfirst of all what happening with e-commerce and second the stores are opening earlier which i'm not sure is going to help them overall because people still have a limited amount of money to spend television hitting with a plunge in oil profits is at the crisis and it will absolutely help the consumer because they will feel their pocketbooks have more money to spend. that is great across the board. >> it synthesizes beautifully what our banks are doing. with lower oil prices is it enough to allow the banks with the american he enthusiasm or do they get crushed by bad loans like we saw and wells fargo yesterday? >> a little of both. the best quarter we had since 2009 in the third quarter this year for u.s. banks but at the leverage things like

loans and people have been running out of loans for the oil patch for the past two months using a lot of activity on the part of investors tried to lighten up exposure. yield and the high leverage loans in carnage at $70 per barrel. >> a different story also going on with the banks because of this idea that they cannot provide the liquidity cushion like they once did, there is this talk that october 15 there were interest rates with a bonds shot up and there with this idea that the banks could not step in because they do not have the inventory, is a story we will see repeated? side effect of the rule which is a half step back toward glass-steagall which hit their they can't own account the cannot add liquidity to the market. >> also oil step in?

else step in?e will give you an example the whale, his portfolio was actively traded before the rule and now it is not, it is passive. >> two worlds here, will bring you to new york city and i wish they had the balloons higher. will be here but they did a fabulous job today. him to your world this is new york city and is buoyant. there is a luxury feel, do you have a belief in that? inthe visitors are flocking and there were 3 million people watching the parade yesterday and oil just builds up in new york city it is the greatest place in the world. >> is the greatest merchandising mart right now? it is interesting in terms of

the luxury markets mastercard just gave a presentation when i was in london two weeks ago and they said that 20% of the luxury retail is done in new york. >> i think that is high but they have this to two sticks. statistics. russell from the new york times. the one negative in terms of foreign visitors is the dollar is so much stronger. >> what is the reading you have on the research were the dollar really clicks in. >> i don't see how we are anywhere near that. >> the new bull market and the dollar is still pretty young and we will go up there year after

year and talk about the week so it still feels like pretty young. if you want to pull up a 40 year chart in the dollar-yen. >> it is a bull market driven by deflation. joe weisenthal, killer harrison chris weiland, negative four on the s&p 500 and oil at 69.03 with a 67 handle earlier this morning, as he mentions lundgren of macy's will join us in this hour for the annual black friday visit will talk to carry lundgren about spongebob square pants in a parade. ♪ >> if you think it is a quiet

friday you are wrong, the markets are really on the move. joe weisenthal joining the and what a shock yesterday, there you and i were -- >> the most exciting thanksgiving since 2009 which was marked by the dubai default and that was the first time we started talking about europe and whether it would be more sovereign default, yesterday was the oil price collapse and the opec nonaction.

>> you mentioned the 10 year yield under 1%. deflationw growth story and the complete inability of anyone to generate inflation is the story and global economy. >> this was nicely played up yesterday. >> the best piece i have read this week was isabella writing in ft l about a new note from city's william bauder about gold, bitcoin and this swiss-gold referendums with a demand to keep 20% and not sell it and i love this line, forbidding a central bank from ever selling gold reduces the value of those gold holdings to zero which is such an insightful point. if you have it and cannot sell it what does it do for the central bank? >> particularly for chris

weiland, do we treat gold the same as we did 60 years ago or 200 years ago? >> gold is slowly inching back toward becoming a monetary asset , it is still a collectible because of the confiscation by fdr in the 1930's, it is now collateral for slop agreements. i think over time it is but there is a lot of demand for gold even at the central banks were out the asians will trade paper for gold all day long. shilling with great pieces and bloomberg view is this good or bad deflation? >> i think it is bad that central banks think it is acceptable to target inflation but the real problem in the world is that we refuse to restructure debts. when we have a vote in spain next year and the populist anti-debt party takes power, i think you will see people in europe circa realize that we are replaying. what is the ecb going to do

when they are facing governments that are demanding debt reduction? of draghi being the hero you wonder how that will happen. we are thrilled to have gilbert harrison with us, coming up on bloomberg television brian cordell of target later in the morning and next carry lundgren from macy's. ♪ >> i am tom keene and joe

weisenthal with me today scarlet flew -- scarlet fu and brendan greeley rumored to return sometime before christmas. >> opec let the market determine the price of oil and its has rises should go lower. they fallen below $70 a barrel for the first time in four years. that's when opec decided not to

cut production levels. regulators say those partial recalls of defective airbags are not enough. they are now demanding the japan corporation implement a nationwide recall. their link to at least four deaths in the u.s. and so far they've only recall the devices and states with high humidity that might cause the airbag to malfunction. a number of big-box stores got a jump eye opening last night still if the online movers had the big change to smile today. target.com had its best day ever yesterday. very good, it is timeless since 1924 thousands and indeed millions lined the streets of manhattan for the macy's things giving day parade. dora the explorer made an jonas was and nick terrible and santa was outstanding and is rumored that terry lundgren has already

locked santa up for the next 12 years to get to the 100th running of the balloon fest. mr. lundgren is legendary and joins us for a back -- black friday visit. what is different this year? i guess what is different is the fact that we did open a couple hours earlier. what is different in the store i haven't missed this one else so -- also and i had a long day and night. andad a really diverse international crowd last night standingthe doors outside the store coming in. so it was just the diversity of the crowd that was here from all walks of life and i came back to the store.

it was all millenial's in her 20's. millenial's in their 20's. >> what is your response to a modern bloomingdale's like look on your first floor? >> we tried very hard, this store is all things to all people and a toy wanted to make sure. you can still get a nine dollars toastertoaster -- $9.99 but you can also get a louis vuitton bag. it really needs to cater to everyone and that was what the renovation was all about. i am out of questions ahead to bring in some but he smart and experienced ask you here is gilbert harrison. great job he did yesterday, it was a wonderful parade. you should be proud. >> i do have santa locked up.

>> 12 years is what tom tells me. >> ask a question this is in the lovefest. >> tell me what is selling, is apparel getting stronger with so much money in consumer pockets? the best part about apparel last night and this morning was active apparel so anything active is selling like crazy, men's, women's and children and it is both a functional active apparel as well a spectator active, what you might look at but not really doing exercise and we have both of those products. secondly it is clearly outerwear. this is an outerwear season for the cold weather climate stores. there was a little snow coming down and it motivated people to buy more coats. your inventory, tell me the

position. we are in good shape i was a little worried about the west coast dock strikes but our team did a good job anticipating that and we had early deliveries. we are in good shape with inventory. awesome9 rampage was last night and the cashmere sweaters sold extremely well. online and in-store. that was hot. the key items we needed are in the store. and gilbert harrison talking inside baseball, let me ask you a real question, how are you learning about the internet is enzyme killing you? >> you have to do more homework we are the eighth largest internet company in america after netflix. and macy's is booming. a great advantage of

amazon, we have these things called storks which can come in and touch the product and interact with the person and tell them whether that makeup is right for them. that is a huge advantage so we are doing just fine. >> tell us about now until christmas, what is your business plan to get to december 25? we've done this before a few times and for the last four years we had $4.4 billion in sales so we have the right formula, a combination of focusing on the products for individual store locations and clearly the on the channel which starts with their phones but like to come into the store and touch the product and then finally the magic selling that relationship between the sales associate and the customer. >> thank you so much, carry lundgren is with the macy's department store where terrific parade.

we'll come back with joe weisenthal oil down to $80 per , under $70 per barrel now. ♪ >> good morning everyone,

bloomberg "surveillance." joe weisenthal with me this morning. on to banking we are thrilled to have christopher whalen with us. , theis our central bank federal reserve established 108 years ago trying to figure out the new mandate coming off of the financial crisis of 2007. mr. whalen wrote a wonderful one volume. let's talk about the back-and-forth. >> give me a reading on bill dudley. how is he doing? >> i think poorly, i worked at the fed in new york and i don't think the morale or the overall state of that bank has ever been

worse. they picked the wrong sort of person. economist,wonderful and my book a great guy but can an economist run that machine? >> i don't think economists should be fed governors or presidents. i think we need different leadership at the fed in new york for the whole situation and the hearings we had before congress i think illustrate the conflict. >> who would be the perfect candidate? >> someone not captive to wall street. someone who does not have up background in investment banking someone who is not an economist from an investment bank and the key problem is monetary policy always trumps safety and soundness. banksay the way that large supervision is handled by the fed in new york is a problem. >> let me bring it to my

colleague joe weisenthal. ideam curious about the that used to be the fed was run more by lawyers and non-economist's, what do you think of the consequences of the fed that is now dominated by phd's? >> i think they treat finance as an abstraction the way they treat monetary policy when you see dudley say that we are not cops on the beat but we are fire wardens, you are a cop on the beat, you are responsible for the bank holding company and they only have permission to own that bank so long as you allow them. >> art representatives in the bank right now? recognizenk i did not and i trust that mr. dudley's troops are in the bank looking at the quality. >> what instructions to they have, what attitude? rutledgerked for bill there was no confusion about who

, when paul was in charge he is to read bank supervision memos before they were voted on and there was no confusion. >> what are the instructions? >> banks have to follow the law and they have to focus on safety and some this first and they are not treated as clients, the current head of tank supervision uses the terminology and it is wrong. it is the wrong mindset. michael mckee makes a big deal on a two empty seats for the board of governors what kind of candidate should be in those anti-seat? -- empty seats? >> i would like us it off regional banker. honig would make a good chairman. we need people from commerce and people who represent the community not just of the bankers. if you go back to the federal reserve act whole point was not

to have the bankers running the , this is outside your review and the odds are the institution of new york in the commerce of the city. the banksstration of and the psychological issue of what you are talking about is really what is a major problem in terms of consumer competence. >> what is a psychological mood of the employees him make a good wage and get a good bonus? >> i think notices will be disappointing this year at many firms, the banks have a problem , theympressive regulation still have a norm is to agree of antipathy and out right hate, they were not heavenly. we're still working to the crisis, people blame the bankers for what happened in 2008 and we still haven't resolved it.

>> chris whalen with us, let me do a daily check, stunning markets, oil 69--- 69.17 per barrel. good morning everyone this is bloomberg "surveillance." with me today is joe weisenthal. thee mentioned through morning oil is the number one story and it is this stunning -- it is stunning. kleiman thisf important moment in this interview. what begins to unravel for oil finance? talking aboutly the modular barrel getting hit

you need a handle on wti, you to get below 60 if you really what a start having a problem for the show producers, credits got movers in some of these names but it could move further. >> if you look at the announcement out of opec how large a surprise is this to the team? >> not much of a surprise at all, it only seems a big deal getting done by this disparate group of opec members was extraordinarily low. it was a huge deal for the economy that they would derail by joining in and that russia would somehow they'll out qatar, it seems pretty far-fetched? >> this new trend that we are seeing how long could at last? we would get back to the 90's with $20 oil or is that out of the question? cost ofeality is the production has moved higher,

shale is not cheap but the problem opec is facing is they have been talking net gain for the past few months and shale is basically a $100 commodity and 90 has been the repeated message so clearly there is not a very firm floor at 90. we think they are absolutely right there is no doubt that saudi arabia with constant production at four dollars per barrel could win a price war with the united states no doubt in the problem is the floor that comes from shale is not at 90 and 80 when you're looking at half or third cycle cost us it is down in the 50's. >> breaking news, vladimir putin in the last nine minutes speaking here on the oil markets. putin says the oil market likely to stabilize by the middle of next year, i've heard this for six weeks. is -- asthink putin smart a guy as he is necessarily a great market forecaster.

>> tell me about the russian dynamics they're are not part of opec so what control does russia have of its own density as we see oil sell? opec and part of people have frequently floated the notion that russia could join opec but it does not have a credible history within, lots of countries within opec do not have a credible history and russia as an a denim does not have a credible history so the extent to which geopolitics could interview to both of its market whether it comes from russia or the middle east, the problem with that argument is that geopolitics is already running pretty high, this meltdown has come with a very robust filing geopolitical backdrop. much, gilberto harrison this comes back to retail by definition can you imagine going under two dollars

a barrel per gas? at the you take a look problems we have had with consumer spending, when you are paying four dollars or five for dollars a gallon for gas it really hit the average person tremendously in the pocket. prices decline in gas and the effect on spending is it specific -- specifically about the extra dollars or is it more psychological? >> i think it totally hits their pocketbook. it is $100 $300 a year for the average consumer and that would go into consumable goods as opposed to oil. crude 72.91, brent and west texas $69.10 a barrel. we bring it act to retail black friday with bloomberg harris telling us it is a little less busy here as we begin the friday morning. what are you doing with a twitter question of the day?

there is no charge for this, it is 100% off today. stay with us.

>> this is bloomberg "surveillance."

the debate is over white meat or dark meat, i love dark meat and she is white meat and it was embarrassing yesterday she passed out on a living room floor, betty liu -- >> how did you know? >> it was thanksgiving right? >> it was. >> everyone had a good day? >> it was. knowing whalen you had a $100 piece? from whole foods. chart beforeg up a betty liu launches into what we will see at 8:00 a.m. moon, this won't go down? are various factors including the california drought this year and last year and that will cause prices to continue at in 2014ighs, up 11%

against 5% it will be a lot more expensive at omaha state, you are be lovers right? >> is this still around? >> it more than in doers, they are seeing brisk holiday sales, this is a company that makes $450 million in sales on this food alone "countdown -- alone. >> they're not just about stakes, ready to grill packs, you ought to get these for you. filet mignon, four porkchops, four burgers, four jumbo franks and four take potatoes how much would that cost? >> i have no idea. >> $165 is what they were charging two nights ago at the bar for a porterhouse for two. >> 8999.

>> how important our fancy restaurants at retail stores? they do a tremendous job in terms of ringing in customers, barney's and the seventh floor at bird door's and sacks and they are in the store for 1.5 hours and they have to buy something. >> they're not buying the hamburger like they used to? >> they're not but what omaha steaks is saying there are certain food trends that are very interesting, bacon craze is still very popular as well as midwestern cuisine which is family-style. foodies.are all ?> what they do in texas >> texas barbecue the best kind.

>> a brisket? >> a brisket or sausage. >> when american farmer start feeding their cows grass i will be all over it. i'm going to early wife for christmas. >> betty liu at 8:00 a.m. this morning on the price of the. -- on the price of beef. ♪ >> good morning everyone i am

tom keene, joe weisenthal with me. >> ferguson missouri had a quiet thanksgiving day and national guard troops were still on the streets where most of the writing had been closed. the parents of the black teenager who spoke to beinge rose say the story told by authorities is at odds with what she knows. iti cannot understand because it does not fit his character at all. has ever seen or heard of

him acting out in a way. >> you can watch all of the interview tonight on charlie rose at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. in japan a volcano is causing nightmares for air travel and it will be canceled or diverted because of interruption at mount also. volcanic ash has an falling on nearby cities. larger smart phones are expected to drastically cut into tablet sales according to ibc, sales rose just 5% next year according -- after 52% growth in 2013. those are your top headlines. >> joe weisenthal with the six plus, you love this? >> i think it is great. >> you are on tv, hold it up. >> it is a little awkward with one hand but i could never go

back. >> do you see everyone moving from the five up to this? >> the normal six is also a little bigger but this is the way to go. >> the six that i have is great. >> everybody has the hip phone but me. acquisitions,and they are back with a vengeance across industries with an activist push. christopher whalen is with cruel bond rating agencies, what a joy versus last year what was the whitest caregiver? >> m&a picked up the cause of cheap money and the fact that they are doing better with business and the companies have to fit together because they're going to create shareholder value and the activist which he talked about before who is absolutely pushing these deals whether they are good or bad, they get in and they find 5% or 15% of the company and they make management wake up. >> you ever worry that janet

yellen and others could derail m&a? know there are still catalysts for higher rates and you have to have a real demand for credit other than the fact that asset prices are going up. they are driven by low rates. --look what happened >> there been fortis -- pharmaceuticals there is obviously energy consideration and the largest tech companies had to keep dying -- >> look what sacks did this week. >> they paid $2.9 billion for sacks. they just had the real estate billionlued at or $.9 and they got a lease on the fifth avenue store for $1 billion "countdown -- billion. >> i spent $2.9 billion in the bag section alone.

we stunned at the evaluation of that property? >> unbelievable, the is one of the things that are driving it because the lenders are lending against these values. >> did we see with halliburton moneyhughes, it is funny now that the uc see is in the bank system driving this. >> when you see the banks turned to pulled on the reserves and led them then you know there is real demand for credit. right now credit is slack. it's ok but not setting records. >> when will they raise rates? iti think they should do soon, takeaway the cash flow to the treasury neutralize it and leave the money in the banking system. spreads are falling and banks. 2% of the middle of next year if you don't see rate start to rise. >> what is that mean for your

world? >> i still think it is good because as long as the economy is driving even if the rates go up i think people will continue -- >> as the editor of the economist said centers ago don't leave rates too low for too long. we will kill our banks. >> a good story on bloomberg couple weeks ago about even as expectations for a right hike are coming we are not single long and move at all so you're talking about the net interest margin of banks, is there really going to be a margin? ,> you have to balance off especially savers have been punished for the last five years, there is no income for grandma to buy christmas presents because her savings are not making money. >> it's a celebration here and you a been a great help today with oil at see where we are now, $69.07, let's get back to something serious.

i would talk about merchandising which is gilbert harrison. has he hit the ball out of the park with his tea bracelet? it is all anybody is talking about of the female persuasion. harris is happen? >> people -- how does this happen? >> people of something new. >> the most expensive luvox on the planet "countdown >> there it is but it is the spirit of the city. >> you are knee-deep in financing transactions and gossip in the bank and you mentioned russia short earlier about the history of the aspiration of the city, what do you see into next year? >> i think you see wall street doing ok, not gangbusters and the rest of the city is trying to adjust from the crisis. we were talking before about a

huge influx of tourists. >> and building i have never seen more building. they question about that are building the joe weisenthal tower on the eight lower east side. let's get the twitter questions, an important and timely question are you spending more this black friday? anotherual it is just time waiting for december or january to get the things i need. online starteds days ago and i bought all the things but do not need them, virtual consumption is what it comes down to. but in the endn it is just an ongoing thing. >> what is that mean? >> i am a spoiler, i don't think opening the store any earlier is going to increase sales.

i think the consumer has so much money they're going to spend and people will try to get in there earlier. >> this is at who the talk about a grinch stop buying christmas gives for the past few years we are in a world where -- >> go away. is, the war when santa went by yesterday, the war -- roar. >> i get to listen to it every year while i cook turkey but i think that post is correct the blur focused more on what is meaningful than what is commercial. we take care of the little ones and ask them what they need and want and the rest of us focus on talking to one another. >> what name are you watching most? think what they're doing at sacks is reinventing that store.

that is phenomenal. south the product lines them additional holdings that will be distributed out. >> honored to have you here on black friday as well. the agenda here we could look forward, what are you looking forward to? the swiss referendum on whether the national bank will be required to keep 20% of its holdings in gold. -- fail to they'll -- -- expected to fail. >> we will have the markers for you all through the day on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio and finally our final agenda how about tcu in texas? >> we are not talking about it.

>> the resurrection of texas football. thank you so much. stay tuned for betty liu, "in the loop." we say black friday to you. ♪ . .

>> good morning. it is friday, november 28. we are live from bloomberg world headquarters. you are "in the loop." i am betty liu. as you a great program

wake up from your post-thanksgiving hangover. asare all over black friday 25 million people hit the stores. did you get your kids there dolls? fight.a will be joined by the president of toys 'r' us u.s., who will be in the middle of the action. we will be at times square, the flagship store. oil prices tumbling after opec decides not to cut production. west texas intermediate crude fell below $70 a barrel for the first time in more than four years and brent crude is headed for its biggest weekly decline since 2011. >> we leave it up to the market forces, and that means further downside. in an environment where