♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am mark crumpton. this is "bottom line," with a main street perspective. to our viewers here in the united states and those joining us from around the world, welcome. he has full coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines, and we have a review of the 2014 box office numbers, and the review is not good. our senior markets correspondent, julie hyman, crunches all of the retail

numbers. let's begin with bloomberg commodities, and su keenan is following today's rebound in crude oil prices. >> good afternoon. we are seeing oil rebound from that sharp drop and five-year lows, calling it a timeout from the sellouts prompted by the production. 3.5 percent, below $64 at the start of the session, and then back up as much as 4%. again, opec. this selloff that began on friday is a huge impact. a big drop in prices is now bringing value buyers out of the woodwork. we look at the rebound, and opec has decided to keep production levels unchanged. many million barrels a day. a cutela was hoping for of at least one million barrels.

that would have kept prices stable, and so was much of the oil industry, because they need oil prices to stay above $80 to keep making profit. began?oes the pressure a top analyst from goldman says we are there at $60, real pain. >> that is the point at which time we would expect to see significant pain in the industry and production cuts. i also want to emphasize that that $60 number also starts to put significant pressure on the opec countries, as well, so the $60 is a wait and see, and below 60 creates a lot of pain. >> opec is already feeling the pain, but the strategy they are having is to try to knock off to the american producers by trying to have prices below are the american producers can make money, and they are playing a real game of hardball. >> so hardball aside, the

question is, where do we go from here? >> some say it is critical that we stay at these levels, and some say there are projections of $40 per barrel. many technical analysts say right now, we are probably likely to stay where we are. >> just from a technical point of view, i think somewhere may be as low as it goes, but i wouldn't be surprised if it bottoms out somewhere around here. that's and it did bottom out. it will probably take a couple of minutes after 2:30 for it to settle. aboveoup, looking at back $100. an adjustment to the global energy costs, and then a $10 1%p below is almost a increase in gdp, through the end of 2018. pretty remarkable, mark.

anddrops we saw in crude brent oil, the biggest drop in six years. >> commodities reporter su keenan, and we will have more with catherine, a strategist, coming up in about 10 minutes right here on "bottom line." black friday, indeed, for retailers. sales fell by an estimated 11%. our senior markets correspondent julie hyman joins us in the studio with details. what happened? >> well, you would think those oil prices and the falling oil prices that su keenan was talking about would have been positive. you would think the jobs situation would have been positive, but that did not happen, at least according to this survey, and as you said, spending down 11%. spent 6.4% shopper less, and traffic was also down about 4.5%.

this is being explained in a couple of different ways. you have it is black friday fatigue. perhaps consumers do not want to brave the crowds at the mall to get those deepest of deep discounts. aret of all, they know they going to get discounts through the holiday season, and they are not trying to get that deepest discount. also, they are spreading out the discounts, not just after the holiday weekend, but before. they had already begun the discounts, so you may have had a spreading out of the traffic. there is also an important caveat when you are talking about this drop. the chairman of the national retail federation was on illance" thisrve theyng, and he said what are saying is not as negative. we are talking about a 4600 person survey, asking people, what did you spend when you were shopping this week, so there are some questions. i fossil estimates that also

showed a drop in traffic, perhaps not as negative in terms of spending. >> ok, so people do not want to brave the malls. it is cyber monday. what do the numbers look like so far? let's sales were up 15% online. company alsolytics tracks it and gives us regular updates. they said as of noon today, spending on cyber monday was up 9.2 percent, again driven by the deals. the numbers i was referring to are supposed to include online sales, as well, so that also brings up the question, why down 11% if you're seeing a migration to online spending? it is just, you know, something that does not add up. >> when you talk about the weekend, you're talking about a weekend that is expanding now. black friday was actually black monday, black tuesday. >> we're talking about thursday

through sunday. senior marketsur correspondent, julie hyman. now let's get you to the other top stories we are following this monday. president obama has a meeting scheduled today to discuss the situation in ferguson, missouri, and missouri is trying to get 50,000 additional police to wear body cameras to record their interactions with civilians. the president has already met with his cabinet and will speak with civil rights leaders and law enforcement officials later. are backduck lawmakers in washington was not that much time to get it all done before the new congress convenes in january. on their to do list, keeping the government running into the new year, renewing tax breaks for individuals and businesses, and a defense policy measure that has passed for more than 15 years in a row. in hong kong, pro-democracy protesters fought with police at the headquarters, in an attempt to revitalize the movement for

democratic reforms after protesters camp out on hong kong streets for more than two months. that canvement successfully surround the city government headquarters makes the authorities lose face and gives them a slap in the face. if they want to keep their dignity, they should respond directly to citizen democracy requests, not to use police and to clear the protests with violence. >> the u.s. supreme court is considering being free speech use of people who use violent or threatening language on facebook or other social media. the justices are hearing arguments about a man who was sentenced to nearly four years in prison for posting lyric ofly graphic killing his wife, shooting a kindergarten class, and attacking an fbi agent. ruth bader ginsburg was on the bench just five days after she had a heart stent implanted to

help a clogged artery. those are our top stories this monday. coming up, the rebound with oil prices. what is fueling the rebound, and then more. you are watching "bottom line" on bloomberg television. ♪

>> welcome back. more now on oil. crude prices rebounded, as we --d you, after inspectors with our guest joining us in the studio. speaking earlier about opec and that meeting thanksgiving, opec resisting calls from some of its members to reduce its production target, the target 30 million barrels per day. >> well, it was obviously a bearish signal.

there is overhang. opec could have done one of two things. they could have gotten rid of that overhang, cutting or looking at times they would cut in the future, or not, and they were pretty clear. saudi arabia, in particular, has no interest in cutting and has no plans to do so. >> opec wants to reduce the global oil glut. is the market up to the task? >> i think what they mean by that is that they want to see what effects this lower price has on the demands, because a lot has changed in the oil balance really in the last five years, so it is really hard to compare what is going on now compared to historically because we do not have the data points. what does a lower price for some period of time due to the production growth we have seen in the u.s.? what does it do to some of the opec numbers and in terms of their future compliance? do for economic

growth? >> how much does this change the opec decision to maintain out ?ook -- output >> i think that the big question out there now is what price does it take and for how long to slow this production growth, at least in the u.s., and to be honest, i think the answer is we just do not know yet. you are a lot of aerials. we have not seen it happen. the oil we are seeing developed in the u.s. is a very different situation. there is an expectation that the production will slow more rapidly in response to low prices, but we really do not know yet. it is really very price dependent and very company dependent. historical basis? >> i would say there is no andorical perspective, maybe under this lower price scenario, as companies start to cut, they just focus on their sweet spot production, and that

production could even accelerate. what does itn oil, mean for countries like china? the chinese are trying to increase the emergency stockpiles. >> well, and they actually have been for over a year now. they actually have built a large inventory, and a lot of people think this low price will be a signal that it is a good time to continue, right? you buy when it is cheap. same way in the market, and we may actually see actual demand for oil have a change. >> there is also russia. if these oil prices continued to fall, it will obviously impact revenue for moscow, and then the drop is in conjunction with the sanctions we have seen because of what happened in ukraine. what does this mean for the economic stability of moscow? >> i would say there are a couple of caveats to that.

there are oil producers that are theirse shape in terms of cash on hand, right? russia actually has more than a country like venezuela. also, because the u.s. dollar has strength into so much, and oil is denominated in dollars, in a way, that shields a currency like russia's a bit. >> there was a bloomberg review comment from mohamed el-erian, and he said the impact of the plunge in oil prices is positive for the global economy, but it is not universal, and it comes with negative dimensions that need to be well understood. ". >> certainly, for oil-producing countries, it is not great. i think people look at geopolitical instability. certainly in a country like venezuela, i think that is certainly a high risk. and there may be some danger in

using historical specifics to estimate how much of a gdp bounce you may get in consuming countries from this loyal oil price, because we have now had five or so years of oil near $100 a barrel, and that may have caused some structural changes in how the economy response to oil and how we use it. >> a few minutes left, what does all of this mean for the u.s. consumer? >> well, i think it is mostly good, but one thing we have to bear in mind is that the u.s. is now a fairly large and growing oil producer. in texas and north dakota, where there is a very positive implement benefit from high oil production and therefore a high oil price, there could be an issue. >> the head of strategy joining me in the studio. catherine, thank you for your perspective. we appreciate it. continues, weine" will follow the back to work

session. matt miller has details when "bottom line" continues. ♪

week for acritical japanese auto parts maker, time to make an agreement, or the government could have the first mandatory recall in decades. petergton correspondent cook is following this story, and the clock is ticking for them. >> the clock is ticking. not only do they have to decide if they will initiate that recall about airbags by tomorrow, but there is a series of questions from the national highway traffic safety administration, and basically it is under orders to do it. it has become a very tense

relationship between the auto parts maker and the federal regulator, and some people have died. the company says two of those deaths are still under investigation. it is said their current airbags are not affected by the humidity problem, and there was a woman badly injured when her airbag deployed, but a company executive apologized for the localities but did not support lawmaker calls for a nationwide recall. hi humidity areas should be the focus of the recall. they are calling for this tationwide recall, and if taka does not agree, they could start getting $7,000 per day in fines, but this could take months to play out. >> peter, how many vehicles are we talking about right now? >> well, millions of vehicles. these airbags were used by 10 automakers around the world.

about 8 million cars over the last two years, and a nationwide recall could put that at estimates as close to 30 million cars, and the company says that could put lives at risk by not allowing the company to focus on the areas where the problem is likely to occur. they are making 300,000 replacement kits, and they will ramp that up in january, but you can see this is still going to be a long process. >> bloomberg washington correspondent, peter cook, thank you. we have all seen those commercials with a giant red go on a car in the driveway when people get cars for christmas. >> why does everybody say they are cheesy? >> i think they are cheesy. getting a car for christmas, everybody loves that idea. theke the idea of having means of buying a car for someone for christmas.

if i did, i would put a bow on it. it is much cheaper to buy someone a car for christmas then it is the fourth of july. >> exactly. and you hit on one thing. theirre trying to move inventory off of the lot. ford is a good example. they are coming up with a new f-150, and they want to move the old ones off of the lot. luxury carmakers have traditionally done the best at christmas, not so much because wealthy people are more likely to buy someone a car at christmas, although i am sure that has something to do with it, but the lease comes up around christmas typically, so people who lease cars tend to lease a car like a lexus or a mercedes, and now other car manufacturers -- this is traditionally the time when you would roll that over. the other thing that is interesting is discounts have really,.

here is santa looking at is awesome mercedes collection. these discounts have really become part of the car dealership world, as much as they have been the retailers world. black friday is huge. onas at a volvo dealership friday, and they had great discounts. i went to a porsche dealership, also. they were not offering any discounts. this summer is the most discounted month of the year, and specifically, the five most discounted days of the year are after thanksgiving. let friday with my mother, who is buying herself a car for the reds, and she has bow on it, as well. i am not sure if she is going to leave it. there she is. my mom. nowou know everyone has heard you say that your mom is buying herself a car, and they are going to want to be knowing

why you are not buying her a car. >> she can buy her own car. she is getting a great discount. she has known the dealer for a long time. at the end of the year is when she can get that. >> all right. matt miller, as always, thank you so much, and, hi, mrs. miller. it is 26 minutes past the hour, and that means bloomberg is on the markets. here is julie hyman. >> thank you. we do have declined across the board. a couple of things contribute it to that, including weaker than anticipated retail sales, according to estimates, and worse than expected manufacturing numbers coming out of china. the movetainment on with the company behind the hunger games, controlling the second-biggest movie chain, in talks to acquire a stake in the company. mockingjay games:

top of the boxe office. and a rally of 10% last week on the prospect of lower fuel costs, as oil prices plunged, in oil prices rebounded, so there is a bit of a change. more coming up. ♪

>> welcome back to the second onf-hour of "bottom line" bloomberg television. i am mark crumpton. thank you for staying with us. as the season to go shopping. amazon says they are seeing high demand, so much that they are turning to robots to help. they are transporting goods across their warehouses. the more, i am joined by our editor at large, cory johnson, from california. tell us about the new amazon fleet of robots.

>> i am not a robot, mark. just to be clear. this is really cool stuff, mark, important in that it is changing the nature of work and who does it. here at the amazon fulfillment center in california, it is much closer to the cities amazon serves come major places such as san francisco, a little more than an hour away, with traffic that is terrible. sacramento, different direction. a different distance. this cold more than all of the amazon distribution or fulfillment centers, as they say, because of these robots. what happens here, unlike the other amazon facilities across the world, amazon will move these giant carts and move them up, 700 pounds at some times, and stash it into the catacombs in this giant building.

what it means, they can have 70% more goods in the building. a new york city block, they have got over 3 million different products, 21 million products themselves -- in this facility. the robots stash them away, after a person, such as this person, puts them away. there is a picker to pull them off the shelf, eventually box them out and send them out, sometimes in the same day. it is a fascinating facility, and it is changing work. the outlook from the company from stable to negative, about one of its only debt offerings ever. ?ow significant is this >> we have not seen the size of the deal yet, or at least that information has not been released yet, and that is

expected in an sec filing as soon as tomorrow. you can see that with these robots and with the expansion of this facility. they are spending over $4 billion a year to expand their operation, by building these distribution centers, and building their separate amazon services, and they want to expand more, and they want to grow faster. they are going to the market for only the second time in 14 years to raise what will probably be $1 billion, maybe more. the way these guys run their business so barely profitable, debt at a country like amazon is a greater risk, but what i will stays their governor is to so close to profitability, barely proper, so they can continue to expand, living places like this, to get more customers and to get bigger, faster. that is the way they run this business. theory johnson live and in flesh at that warehouse in california. thank you so much.

i'm next, we will take a closer look at what is behind the price of oil. trish regan will join us when "bottom line" continues in a moment.

♪ welcome back. it is time for today's latin america report. power, theve term in longest-serving national political party in effort your decade.

elected president for a second time, with 53% of the vote, and the national party candidate had 40%. the victory means the broad front will have a majority in both houses of congress. , supporting the currency overshadowing a drop in commodities. the brazil's central bank extended a commodity on 10,000 spot contracts today. ofollover at the beginning november, and that is your latin american report for this monday. the national regional federation is predicting a decrease in the number of shoppers who will be taking advantage of cyber monday deals. the group says they know these deals will not be the last chance to find low prices and deals.ve i am joined by our guest in the studio. scott, welcome back to "bottom line." it is good to see you again. is this a question of who blinks

first, the retailer or the consumer? >> people are getting more confident with the research that they do online that these products will be available longer, so the 24-hour incentive is losing credibility, especially when you see black friday moving into thanksgiving. >> is this a question because of who is doing the defining? >> well, you used to have -- there is a lot going on here. online is becoming really where people buy emotionally and intellectually, and because of the transparency, because they can't see how many products are still available, they do not feel the need to get in the car and go grab that flatscreen the same way they used to. cyber monday. of is it in declined because it is a one-day event? >> i think it is in decline because of the word "cyber." have goneese holidays

global. single stay in china has gone global. we even imported black monday to europe. the idea of cyber monday does have relevance, but the idea that somehow e-commerce is somewhat special and should have its own day is becoming a little -- has say -- a little pit bit passe. it is almost like calling it electricity day. it would still be an excuse for retailers to try to move some product, but i think we're going to have a smoothing effect, where things giving a supposedly but wet online day ever, are seeing people starting to smooth out their purchases. >> scott, can a website make a difference? do shoppers even care what a website looks like? >> hugely important. think of it like your face.

90% of what people think about you is what they see around your eyes and your face. the one window in macy's that hundreds of millions of people look to. also, some really interesting data, mark. now 50% of purchases are influenced or touched by digital, so digital is not only impacting e-commerce, it is impacting in-store sales, and years ago, the percentage was lower. we are buying some things online, and we may be processing it in a store, a source of becoming warehouses, but online is where decisions are being made. >> are you surprised that it is becoming so visceral? >> no. i am from the internet days, and finally it has caught up to the promise. bill gates had interesting quote. in 1999, we thought e-commerce was going to be 10% of retail in 10 years.

now, it seems to be making the jump to lightspeed, and it is having more influence than ever. >> i am speaking to scott galloway with the school of business. federation,l retail as we mentioned earlier, said spending fell at about 11% from one year earlier. 6 million shoppers were expected to go to the stores. they didn't. what happened? >> it is interesting. there is a tectonic shift. q3 sales were up, but store visits are down. they are doing all of their research online, and then they are going in and getting everything they need in one fell swoop, and i would not trust that number. i think most people think it will still be a decent holiday. ibo do not feel the need to go online in a given time. keeper -- i do not think people need to go online in a given time period.

we are seeing the death of some things. longer a brick and mortar company. williams-sonoma will do 46% of their business online. openingon will be stores in months. it is all moving to multichannel. consumers want products available in all channels. >> scott galloway, i have to ask you before we go, what about the continued hacking? what does this mean about consumer confidence going forward? is this going to scare people off? my credit cards get turned off automatically when i leave the united states airspace, and people have become very wary of giving their credit card information out. this is probably the biggest threat to retail in the next 12 to 24 months. >> we seem to be hearing the stories every other week, every other month. why is this happening in 2014?

>> well, technology, unfortunately, does not just for me in the good guys. you can make a bomb with a phone. the question is, how do we fight back? on the new iphone 6, there is a thumbprint technology. the good news is that the good guys are generally ahead of the curve on this. scott galloway, marketing professor at the nyu stern's school of business, thank you for joining us in the judeo. every time you come on, i feel like i am in class. >> good to see you, likewise. happy holidays. numbers for 2014 they don't look pretty. "bottom line" continues in just a moment. ♪

have been covering on bloomberg all day, oil prices have been following, and it is

one of the big stories, and " anchor, trish regan, is here. >> it was somewhat unexpected, because no one expected that opec would come out and boost production, right, because let's not forget, they have an incentive. opec has an incentive right now to see oil prices decline, and that stems from the success of u.s. drilling, all of the fracking, everything we have done here at home to make ourselves less along rubble or less reliant on opec. story has been getting a lot of traction here on bloomberg today, and you mentioned the fracking part. how important has this been? >> it is important. energyhat should make us independent. once oil prices start to come down as much as we have seen them come down, investors are less likely to put money into

the drilling companies, and as a result, you do not see as much investment, and that industry may start to shrink a bit. now, opec knows this, and so to a certain extent, they are perhaps pleased at seeing oil prices move lower, because that means the u.s. is not going to be as successful in terms of its own energy business, but let's not forget the u.s. dollar having an effect on prices. with all of the qe you see happening around the world, in japan and europe, that, therefore, is making the u.s. dollar stronger, given that oil is priced in dollars. that has an effect on prices, which actually should be good news for all of us here at home, as our dollars are able to buy a bit more at the gas tank. >> trish, before you go, what is happening at the top of the hour? >> we will talk more about oil and what we saw out of opec. we're also going to talk to a ceo.

selling things online now. cookies. online. so so much for the door-to-door girl scout cookies. >> all right, trish regan with "street smart" coming up in about 10 minutes. >> i will see you then. >> is 2014 a box office bust? after its slow thanksgiving numbers, hollywood may be seeing its worst season since 2008, so how is that affecting studios like lions gate and disney? julie hyman joins me on set to look at the numbers. is there any chance that hollywood is going to get a turnaround between now and the end of the year? >> it is crucial for hollywood, and based on what we saw, things are not great. the two movies that people went out to see included "the hunger games" and "penguins of

madagascar," and that brought in less than half of what the top two movies brought in last thanks giving. games:e hunger mockingjay" is the top movie of 2014, but it pales in comparison to others. opening weekend sales did not go thee $150 million, and then projected domestic total does not even hit 400 million dollars, which is a big deal, according to analyst. the lead the hive, and up, and that has to be a huge disappointment, and sony taking a hit from the hacking we have been hearing about. how are the other studios being impacted by this news? >> yes, we woke up this morning and found out that hundreds of copies of a brad pitt movie and others had been downloaded

illegally, hacked, and that will definitely hit into holiday sales, and then dreamworks and sgate effected. huge discrepancies. lionsgate is in talks to possibly be acquired, so that gave them a jump this morning. on the flipside, in contrast to deal talks have broken down twice. their movie "penguins of madagascar are" is disappointing fans. "star wars" trailer this weekend. >> and it does not come out until december 2015. >> that is completely it. people are over 2014. the poll are so pumped for next

year. >> thank you so much. another check of the market movers on the break. "bottom line continues. ♪

atget the latest headlines the top of the hour, streaming on your tablet and online. that does it for this edition of "bottom line." i am mark crumpton. "on the markets" is next. >> 56 minutes past the hour, and that means that bloomberg is on the markets. i am julie hyman. some stocks getting hit hard today. moody's revising its outlook on amazon too negative, so the nasdaq is down about 1.25 percent, the s&p down about two thirds, and the dow is down.

commodities about today. we are seeing a little bit of a rebound in some of the commodities. gold, for example, is rallying by 3% here as we see a bit of a snap back. same thing with oil. we are seeing a comeback from all of the declines that we have been seeing and showing stronger gains, and a lot of volatility, i'm unprecedented in the price of those various commodities. and let's talk about the recent decline in oil prices. theas pushed down shares of oil and gas exploration companies. one etf is trading at a new 52-week low. and joining me for today's report is a guest, which provides real-time research on companies and industries and focus is on oil and gas. so you have been pretty busy. given what has been going on. even though oil has been rebounding, these companies are not rebounding.

much, but theyas are still going negative. >> it is really a demand and supply imbalance. it is about demand growth. what we are seeing is demand pressures in europe and other developed countries and also developing countries overall, so that is causing that demand-supply imbalance, and either crude prices or equity prices, to recover, you need to see that demand and supply tighten, and it has to come from the demand, because we know supply is there. u.s., would think in the we would be seeing some kind of demand improvement, right, with an improved economy. here to seewe need a significant change? >> what we have seen is a strong growth in some of the major plays in the u.s., up in north texas, and three plays are responsible for a

larger percentage of the overall growth, so that will supersede any type of demand, because of thoserowth coming out of three plays. >> when you look at these companies, are there those that are more effective, less effected by the oil prices falling to where they have? >> when you look at it, let's take into consideration the main plays in terms of the breakeven costs, so there is the higher -- these names will be more exposed relative. so, for example, companies like on thental, that focus larger players, they will be more exposed there. >> ok, and very, very quickly. how much exposure does it have? not to that area, but to the low price?

are exposed in various ways. they have a position in the various planes, but we also have a downstream, which tends to mitigate to some extent. >> got it. ok. thank you so much, as always, for walking us through what is going on with oil. more next. >> welcome to the most important hour of the session. i am trish regan and this is "street smart." the week disappointed by black friday sales figures and the ibm report says don't get too excited about cyber monday. i'm joined by the man crunching the numbers. oil prices near the lowest levels in five years. we will talk to the influential voices in the sector. starts now.t"