for business.osts ministerahu fires two calls for an early election. he says his nation deserves a stable government. ministerrkish finance says his relationship with russia is important. >> pressure is a major trading partner. russia is a major trading partner. russia is an important trading partner.

>> why she isn't too worried about the economy. >> we are excited about what is going on for the holidays. all in all, i think that we are going to stay optimistic for the holiday season. welcome to "countdown." edwards.na >> i'm manus cranny. >> i'm mark barton. don't expect any major pre-election giveaways because

of the deterioration in the public finances. there will be measures to support more business on top of the extension of the funding scheme. will we see an overhaul of the in the u.k.?stem i will be asking that question in about 40 minutes time. back to you in the studio. , we have got an exclusive interview with the chief executive of club med soon to be speaking in paris. its takeover bid for club med. an interview you do not want to miss. >> let's return to our top story. the last big chance to shake up the nations economic agenda. judge osborne will deliver a range of measures with one eye firmly on voters. what will be in the statement? osborne has announced an

extension of a program intended to help small and medium-sized businesses. what other announcements can we expect? mark barton is outside westminster and. how constrained is osborne? the public finances are not getting any better, are they? there are borrowing from april through october. sameis up by 6.1% from the period a year earlier. osborne has left her room to maneuver. the member lack in march, the chancellor said that britain would reduce the budget deficit

by 12 billion pounds to 84 billion pounds. that looks unlikely. 97.5 billion. is that was last years budget deficit. i think we could be assured that george osborne will want to announce that britain's budget deficit will be reduced this year, but it will be pretty close. george osborne has a bit of history when it comes to missing his goals when the coalition took over in 2010. he said that current budget thatit is the deficit doesn't include investment spending would be eliminated by the 2015 election. .hat is not going to take place that probably will happen by 2017. the overall budget deficit that includes investment spending

probably will be eliminated in 2018. to achieve that, george osborne will probably have to announce further public spending cuts which won't be easy. many of that departments are sacrosanct. they cannot have further cuts such as education, oversee spending, and pensions. george osborne will try to taint apositive picture as -- paint positive picture as he can. >> what will investors look for in the economy outlook? any giveaways? people to focus on any giveaways he can afford. osborne honest, george can smile when it comes to the state of the u.k. economy. the economy has grown.

office of budget responsibilities said that the economy this you would grow by 2.7%. it would send those measures to be raised higher. that is positive here it he could shout from the rooftop at the u.k. will be the strongest growing g7 economy. wages that is excluding bonuses have surpassed inflation for the first time since 2009. those are the positives. we know the spending for nhs. businessesor further , further measures for small businesses. it could unlock one billion pounds of further support. of the see an overhaul stamp duty system here in the u.k.? that would be a very popular measure from the chancellor as

well. you can announce further measures to help people unto the housing markets. there will be lots of big announcements from the chancellor despite the deterioration of the public finances. >> you have conversations about business. what do they want from the statement? yes, the cbi is the business lobby here in the u.k.. want --ings are really overhaul the outdated business rate system. system.he r&d credit if you're going to have devolution, promote local growth while maintaining the integrity of the internal system. that means a comment regime for laws, allaxes, labor

sorts of measures like financial services and for energy as up. have to be a progrowth budget. that is what the cbi has told george osborne. back to you in the studio. >> well done. stay warm. get yourself a cup of coffee. just a reminder, you could watch coverage of the autumn statement here on bloomberg. >> the israeli prime minister ministers and called for early elections. a follows weeks of public bickering. there was a certain inevitability in this. it sounds like this is one very divisive issue on the table. >> coalition governments are

often messy affairs. both are spread so thinly. they often comprise of parties and personalities sometimes have diametrically opposing views. this collision government was a prime example. there are number of issues that they disagree over. in the west bank, disagreements over the break down. in particular, real disagreement over the prime minister's pushing of the so-called jewish eight to enshrine the jewish character in law. both felt it would undermine the character.ocratic it's a fascinating

conversation. from economic respect to, early elections -- how does that work? >> you don't sound much like manus. it couldn't have come at a worse time. it took a hit due to the 50 day gaza conflict. tourism accounts for about 7% of the economy. it was the best performer in the world last year against major currents is. exporters, but perhaps not quintessential banquet of hope things panned out. >> thank you very much. join anna and i on twitter. what have you got? message.s a

, another bloomberg exclusive. the turkey finance minister speaks to guy johnson about the big issues of the day -- russia, oil, and politics. ♪

>> time for today's company news. jakarta has denied demands. statement, he said the response was "disappointing. " it would fall short of the airbag makers as confident as. north korea may have had a hint little attack against sony pictures. some of the malware contained korean language code. cap resulted in the theft of unreleased titles, including the movie "annie."

"annie" has been removed from the filesharing website. things may be looking up. withstandstruggled to -- >> every bloomberg exclusive. ts to carry gas insteadsia to europe providing into turkey. what will this mean for the turkey energy sector? >> russia is a major trading partner. we are heavily leveraged to russian energy.

russia is an important trading partner. well over $30 billion. russia is an important neighbor, trading partner. it is business. disagreements. a reduction of natural gas prices, but also russia has decided to to forget about the south project. on pipelines to turkey. >> that is going to happen. it is not just a fickle decision. you're confident that is something that will be

delivered? >> it makes sense. turkey is a big country. economy.rowing it is not just a chance it place. -- transient place. >> let's bring our next guest into the conversation. us.t to have you with crumbling oil price. the russians are running to dump a hugging them in terms of wanting to give them more gas. -- are running to them and hugging them in terms of wanting to give them more gas. >> more guess could be sold and bought on the international market place. 's expensing the best of a

lot of different worlds right now. >> compass relationships playing out. i imagine they would remain contentious. this is business. >> economics generally do trump politics. russia is discovering that to their dismay as they watch the oil price and their currency crumble. russia is forced to be more friendly to a lot of different players. >> you are right. they are being forced east. again how doating you look at her -- look at it? you still have inflation rising. member?fragile

>> it depends how long the oil prices stay low. this is a real boon for turkey. it is no longer dramatically cheap against its own history. in fact, it is a little bit expensive. >> is that on the equity market? >> yeah. the currency is very important. with the twin deficits, it is still fragile. we are neutral. that is where we think we will stay. >> talked about in years gone by. >> quantitative easing is more of a factor. that would probably make the euro cheaper versus the turkish lira. that would be a negative. if it resulted in the revival of growth in europe, that would be positive for turkey. turkey-russiathe

axis. another record low. it is beginning to feel the effect of these sanctions. does it of a default? -- avoid default? >> i don't think there is much chance. i don't see that happen thing. their exchange reserves are still very large. they could soldier through. putin might start looking for a way out of this situation. his popularity cannot stay that high. even though the population is used to suffering, this generation is not used to suffering. >> a great bloomberg story you'd apparently a joke is going around the kremlin. story alsoreat

written in the u.s. can things get more painful for russia? >> i think they do hear i think he will be looking for a deal. it doesn't make sense to continue going down this road. economics trump politics. much.nk you very we will be back. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." us.guest is still with gary, let's talk about china. prices double in 18 months -- is that your case? [laughter] but china does look like one of the more attractive markets. the market is still pretty undervalued we think. exciting things are being. shanghai is turning into a smart city. a lot of innovation going on. the potential for innovation using the internet is really tremendous. it is a very interesting market. >> you talk about the emerging

markets. mexico.hina, korea, those are the biggest drivers. >> i think they are, yeah. bust kind of mode. move to study come even slower growth, that would be positive. you thinke said voters chose regression over reform in the most recent election. 2015 and have a tough possibly 2016 year. -- they will have a tough 2015 and possibly 2016 year. how long he will last in that situation, no one knows. he has got good plans. it should be helpful. what we need is a motive.

>> that seems to be the consensus. raise -- they have got to raise. do they? well they? -- will they? sholuld they? they have to become more competitive. raise the savings rate somehow. soter education or reform that they develop a workforce that could compete. brazil has got a lot of homework to do. >> thank you for joining us. >> coming up on "countdown" and the victoria scop you we went behind

the scenes. we caught up with the ceo. that is coming up. all the stars and secrets behind victoria's secret. ♪

>> you're looking at a live shot of westminster. george osborne will be presenting his statement to the house of commons in six hours time. --ittle bit of a foggy you pictures.g over those >> let's give you a look at the foreign exchange markets. we will kick it off with the swedish krona. what you have got here is the threat that the prime minister may resign after his minority coalition failed to win lawmaker backing for his first budget. if they do not get the backing

from the sweden dark rats, there are people who voiced their concern that there may be a few problems. you are saying the dollar rise in the swedish krona fall and we lost almost 1.25% over the past three days. rusher against the dollar. keep an eye on the aussie dollar. with a four year low. third-quarter growth really trailed estimates. it came in even below the lowest of the estimates. a dollar and half percent. and the slowest in 16 months where rates have been left unchanged by the reserve bank of australia. that is going to change according to 98% of the traders. goldman sachs is 25 basis points. .2 of 1% ago. that will put pressure on the

aussie dollar. advise mr. soros, calling the dollar yen at 200. that is a heck of a yet -- number. u.k.'s exchequer will present his statement. george osborne has announced the statement. the funding for lending scheme will be extended till 2016. we will bring you live coverage half past 12 here on bloomberg. sweden's prime minister said he might resign if he feels to win backing for his first budget. he leads a minority coalition. . they refused to support any budget that promotes immigration. the primera -- minister may call

action's. the funeral has taken place at the funeral of philippines. many testended by cricketers past and present. he had played for his country since 2009. majorg oil prices are headaches for vladimir putin. back onet the country track? here to tell us more is ryan chilcote. good morning. >> that is a big call. i cannot know. >> is recession inevitable? >> what we heard from the kremlin saying what we have heard from economists before that russia will enter a recession next year. the importance is this is the first time the government is conceding that next year the economy will contract. the economy ministry sing it will contract by under 1%. 0.8. a far cry from their forecast of

growth of 1.2%. another interesting thing they said is the expect household incomes are disposable income to fall by about 3%. russians have gotten used to what they look at as stagnation which in western europe would look pretty good. , that has in russia allowed the government to feel like things are great here. that is better than in western europe. he came in on december 31, 1999 when boris yeltsin surprised the -- steppedtep down down. inflation was between 5 and 10%. that is when you had jim o'neill

extolling the version's -- extolling the brics. disposable income rose 10% a year every year and now i said at the beginning they are forecast to fall by 3%. the comparables are not great. the lastnot do them in fx check. we have gary greenberg here and he was saying what is the possibility of default and possibility of vrable intervention. they are not going to intervene. what is the people you're talking to? >> the feeling is they will not intervene. going on. joke the oil price will hit 63. bech i have to say has to

unfathomable. >> we have to wait until next year for those? >> the ruble was at 34 to the dollar last year and now it is at 54. it is on its way down. let's watch what happens in 25 minutes when we get the real liquidity. it is declining this morning. the reality of the situation only helps the russian government balance the budget. it creates inflationary pressures but the russians are gambling that with oil prices inflation overall for next year, that will get them out of the doghouse. however you think about those people that do travel, that do like to buy foreign goods like iphones. they're not going to be too pleased about this. >> thank you very much. million fashion show. the company's underwear is big

business. victoria's secret turned over $6.6 billion and operates 1000 stores. bloomberg caught up with the ceo. is very exciting for us. the and international brand and we opened our store over three years ago on bond street and it is a wonderful feeling to be here. it is one of the fashion capitals being in london and last night. they had the london fashion award so we were there. help to raise $75,000 to bring new kids into the fashion world. very exciting to be here and exciting to be in london. >> it is the most important time worldtailers across the after an underwhelming black friday. we asked if she was still optimistic for the holiday season. we areink that cautiously optimistic. we are excited about what is going on for holiday.

we are prepared for what is happening for holiday. all in all i think we are going to staff for this holiday season. >> bloomberg went behind the scenes at victoria's secret's show and rare opportunity to speak with the man behind the $20 million luxury extravaganza. lingerie extravaganza. >> i am the executive producer of the show and the chief creative officer for victoria's secret. the creative process is all year long. i am thinking about next are today. the main challenge for anyone for any business for any perfectionist to do it better next year. we do not see down the beginning of the year and say this year we are going to force the last year. we cannot do that. what do i? what is better? this show is better than last year.

the customer dollars to finish the show this year. it is astounding. i get the question is it worth it to spend so much money on a fashion show? is it worth it in 100 92 countries for an hour in december? i think so. the service revis well-known worldwide. i want people to get off their privileged butts because this is a hard ticket to get and enjoy themselves. creative director at victoria's secret. was asking them, angel wings, too much for work? coming up on "countdown," live on tehe green. >> i certainly am.

less than six hours until george osborne delivers his final pre-election autumn statement. what does the housing industry want to hear from the chancellor? we understand there will be measures to help first-time buyers onto the letter. will we see an overhaul of the regime? i will be speaking to an executive director at crest nicholson. joining me next. stay with us. ♪

>> time for today's company news. reports in the markets that shell is rumored to be considering a takeover of ep. closed in thees u.s. and neither company was available for speculation. it is a move the company says could raise as much as 35 billion dollars to help combat commodity prices. the cfo also left open the possibility of an ipo. he told bloomberg that plans to

surprise investors with lower spending over the next two years. >> we are in the middle of a journey. we have two strong years of spending before we complete our investment program and we're looking, working hard to reduce that spending and to do the same objects with less amount. making sure and showing them we will be able to go through this two-year period spending less resources. >> and teaming up with the world's second richest man. feature the app on all android phones and mexico starting today according to a blog post on uber. the partnership will extend across latin america and two months. >> bookmakers are gearing up for a flurry of bets ahead of george

osborne's autumn statement. as one bookie explains you can everything.on >> britain's economic plan is working. [crowd jeering] year's length of speech was a good one. last he was 50 minutes. anymore than that in the back benches may start nodding off. he normally goes with his favorite. we going with navy for the favorite. and -- out with a grain a green tie. yourself, man.

your [indiscernible] is detectable several miles off. hise loves the sound of voice and they are pretty rowdy bunch. we set this pretty low. two to five less. 65 for none. i like the three to one or more. for the number of times the speakers's order. -- speaker says order. >> one thing where betting on is there is one man who is cold and theg the job on the day chancellor gets his last big chance to shake the agenda. we will be live in westminster on it -- all morning. one man that is poised and ready

to go is mark barton. >> police sirens are blaring. i am joined by chris tinker who is an executive toward director dashboard director. thank you for joining us. this might be the story of all stories today. a reform of u.k. stamp duty. according to various osborne could make it a progressive system. how welcome with that be? >> very welcome. if you have a house that is worth 251,000 for decades and you are selling at, -- it, you would jump to 256,000 simply because of the -- it's nature. more for the

housing industry. >> that is one measure he could announce. the governor may commission directly the building of homes on stated -- state owned land. >> that is an interesting one. they have indicated they might like to try out [indiscernible] for cambridge.ng that way they are delivering 250,000 items a year. local authorities -- they tended to be more of the affordable housing. they deliver and sale would be new indeed and it would be interesting to work with them to see how that comes forward. >> what could hasten the process to get to that 250,000 level, the magical figure to meet annual demand? what will get us there? aboutre only delivering

130,000 homes a year against that 250,000 target. it is not a one-stop shop answer. on the demand side, the government and the coal ascended put in place they help to buy scheme which has been helpful and they extended that out to the year 2020. that would be good because as andanies invest [indiscernible] in terms of manufacturers and to know that we have a good and steady demand side is really helpful. >> that is planning the reform side. >> planning reforms. most of us would agree it needs time to bed in. there is a lot to increase skills to make sure plans are current and meet housing needs so we can see that five-year supply. and then there is quite a bit, the number of small to medium-size enterprises has

fallen. something like 78% over the last 20 years. a lot of that has to do with the complexity and uncertainty that comes from planning. anything we can do where the government can signal an increase in that certainty, that can give the small to medium-sized elders more encouragement to come forward with schemes, that would be helpful. >> and bringing more land to market faster? bring 100,000o homes to market and they have been doing that progressively. they have been taking on some of are pleased towe work in partnership with the government. they could go for the next parliament and to increase the rate at which that comes to market and perhaps working more in partnership as we seek to increase the delivery rate. >> let's get political or as political as you are allowed to

get the proposals by the labour party. what do you make of these ideas? people whoe a lot of find themselves in the center of owning properties who would not consider themselves rich, who would not have a regular income. a proposal of this nature could be quite a challenge. for me you would have to look at some sort of progressive council tax policy that went through all the price downs and i am not sure they should tax and principal -- if that is sensible. these measures they are carefully [indiscernible] considering. >> the market seems to be slowing down area -- slowing down. you look at all the metrics. where are we right now when it

comes to the housing markets? >> there has been an increase in supply within london. it is not a bad thing that the rapid double-digit inflation is slowing. that is the case within zone one and zone two, the higher value and parts of london. and what we are seeing is gradually, that increase in price is going to zone three and four. i do not see the market in london slowing generally but it is probably moving slightly out to the more affordable areas if you could call out of london affordable. >> think you for joining us today. one of the executive board -- chris tinker. chris has been at crest years.on for 25 someone who has been at their job longer than i have. im a happy man. >> the thing is to not make you to -- feel too old and i what

the morning -- feel too old on a wednesday morning. join us on twitter. warning for the superrich. we are with the housing theme. newspapers next. ♪

>> welcome back. i am standing outside the houses of parliament in westminster in london. i thought we would look at the front of the "financial times." osborne would unlock one billion pounds of support for small business and it is possible he will reform the stamp duty system in the u.k. which right now they call it more of the slab system. it is possible he will make it more progressive. a day for george osborne today. he is constrained by the public finances but there will be giveaways. there will be headlines. more from me a little later. >> absolutely. had won a battle to ban

multistory basement development. have seen some three stories. we have the ceo of club med. ♪

chancellor extends program for funding ahead of his august -- autumn statement. >> the israeli prime minister says his nation deserves stable government. >> in a bloomberg exclusive, the turkish finance minister tells us why his country's relationship with russia is so important. >> russia is a major trading partner. we are have read -- heavily leveraged to russia and we import almost two thirds of our natural gas from russia. russia is a very important trading partner.

>> another exclusive. victoria's secret's chief executive on why she is not too worried about the economy. >> i think we are cautiously optimistic. we are excited about what is going on for holiday. we are very well prepared for what is happening for holiday. all in all i think we will stay optimistic for this holiday season. warm welcome. >> i am manus cranny. am mark barton here outside the houses of parliament in westminster in london. just a few hours time, six and a half, to be exact. george osborne, the chancellor of the exec -- exchequer will deliver his final autumn statement.

expect no major pre-election giveaways. he is constrained i deteriorating public finances. he will unlock one billion small of support for business. possibly we will see an overhaul of the stamp duty system here in the u.k. we are to had pronouncements at the nhs and building roads and extending the funding for lending scheme as well. big day for the chancellor, big day for mark orton. 7 a.m. here at westminster. back to the studio. >> can't wait for the days coverage. stay warm, keep the gloves on. anna and i i i i have an exclusive interview with the chief executive of club med. they raised its takeover bid for club med. it is an interview he will not want to miss. -it is two minutes past seven. getting the last click chance to

shape the economic agenda before the next gears general election. he will deliver a range of measures with one eye firmly on for business be and investors? >> ahead of this statement has announced as marc was saying an extension of a program intended to help small and medium-sized businesses. the funding for lending scheme 2016.un till what other announcements might we expect? let's get back to mark and begin that conversation. george osborne has a lot of constrictions, he has deficits that are not playing along with the theory said he presented to the electorate when they took to power. >> you said it. in 2010, the deficit should have disappeared by now. that is what the cola shouldn't government told us. we have still got the deficit. that forecastody

the deficit and public finances, it would be $84 billion -- 84 billion. this fiscal year, it is 6% higher than the same time last year. the deficit bigger than last year? he does not wanted it to be because politically that does not sound very good. 95.7 billion. why has deficit not declined when growth has been gaining? it is all down to tax receipts. they have not been as good. people who have been in jobs have been0 added to the economy since march, they are lower paid jobs, part time, self-employed. they do not boost things or the treasury's coffers. he does not have a history of meeting his budget deficit targets. does that mean we have faith in targetsing his deficit

going forward? he wants get rid of the overall budget deficit by 2018, 2019. happen.'t going to you thought a sturdy was bad, you better watch out because we will have much more austerity in the next two years so the chancellor can meet his budget deficit target. >> that is the gloomy side of things. how little he has to spend, how little room to maneuver but he will want to shower a few gifts so where will we be looking for any gifts to the economy, any giveaways? >> it is december. he will want to give as gifts to the economy. and he will shout out about the economy as well. grown for seven consecutive quarters. the kobe our city would grow 2.7% this year and 3.7% next

year. those revisions will be boosted upward as well. this is the biggest grower, that is a tick box for george osborne and employment is below 2 million. basicg one of course is pay, excluding bonuses, is finally surpassed inflation for the first time since 2009. that is the rank drop. he has to sing long and hard about that. where the giveaways? he is extending the funding for lending scheme and focusing on small businesses. on bigo longer focusing businesses. the second big one is he will unlock one billion pounds of support for businesses. those who are desperate to get onto the housing market and we will see an overhaul of the tax system, the housing tax system here in the u.k. it is possible the stamp duty

system will move from a slab system to a progressive system as well but expect lots of measures including possible more flexibility for the northern island assembly to levy corporation tax which will make it more competitive versus the republic of ireland. 12.5% in northern ireland and in the rest of the u.k., it is 21%. that will push on the evolution debate. >> it will indeed. you had a conversation with hans nicholson. what did business want? cbi, it is simple. we want a progress judge it today. a progrowth autumn statement. what does -- what else does the business industry want? please will you overhaul the outdated business tax system? either freeze it or link an

increase in business taxes to consumer prices rather than retail prices. that is the first thing the cbi wants. the second thing they want is an extension for resurgent development tax credit. that will boost businesses' ability to compete on the world stage. a freeze in air duty would help. talking of evolution, if we are going to have de-evolution, let's promote local businesses but we must maintain the integrity of the internal system . that means the cbi says common goals on business taxes, unemployment law, on the labor and on on energy, financial services well. that is what the cbi wants but it is all about growth. give us a progrowth legit. -- budget. >> back to you. >> thank you. live at westminster. we will bring you live coverage of the autumn statement from

12 london-- half past time. >> the ruble takes a dive after russia says it headed for recession. we will talk all things foreign exchange in two minutes and joined by the global head of bank strategy. for conversation. ♪

>> time for today's company news. the u.s. government agency for kata'sc safety said taj response was disappointing. it would fall short of the responsibility to keep drivers safe. north korea may have had a hand in the digital attack against sony pictures that crippled the company's computer systems according to two people with knowledge. in unreleasedted titles. "annie" had been removed from

some filesharing websites. pimco has been struggling to stem redemptions after the parts are of bill gross in september. past seven minutes -- 13 minutes past seven. the ruble plunging further. is headed for recession. the bank of russia said it sold so itillion worth of fx seems the central bank is intervening in the foreign exchange market. our guest joins us now. where does this leave us on the ruble if we see this intervention taking place? >> the bottom line is russia has

been hit twice. by sanctions and by the very low price. it is a difficult situation with no end in sight. note price the central bankers intervened. they have done that several times successfully against the weakening fundamental tied area it is pretty difficult to see an end to this. what is your discussion on the floor and the house at bnp and how that ties up to the broader currencies? e looking for oil to average around $75. going into next year. we think the falls will become embedded. we do not see oil falling off the cliff. comedy currencies have been

beaten up. we think they could stabilize. they could come back. the one we would focus on here is the canadian and the reason we say that is because it has fallen quite significantly. the underlying and mantels are relatively strong. inflation is above target. growth is looking fairly decent and very strongly exposed to the u.s. economy which is diving global growth. >> let's pick up on your because we have the ecb rate decision tomorrow -- europe because we have the ecb rate decision tomorrow. you have been calling for some time for december to be the time were we get full-blown quantitative easing, bond buying -- are youthink sticking with that? he said december would be the date. is it going to be? >> yes. we think the rhetoric coming from the ecb has been quite clear especially from mario

draghi. we are expecting tomorrow the announcement of rod asset purchases including sovereign bonds. we may not get all the details but that is not that important to the market. if it is announced and mr. draghi it will be significant. the euro could weaken significantly. >> a much of a commitment would it take to be seen as a done deal? >> an announcement that they would add to the balance sheet. last time asthis well. i do not think the germans are on board. i do not think that really matters. it is pretty clear that the power lies not with the deutscher bundesbank but with the ecb. frankfurts turning in and mr. druggie is winning. isio draghi winning. the euro was going

to fall. where is the bigger velocity, the bigger bang for my investing or trading but? >> the keywords it would talk about, policy detergents. and the recommendation we would give his you want to be short the euro against the countries that are hiking and that is the u.k. and the u.s. the point we would make is the two top trades are short euro-dollar and short euro sterling. the immediate future i would say euro-dollar is the best rate because we have payrolls on friday. it is likely to be strong and we are likely to see unemployment fall. we think the euro-dollar can fall back to 120, it even lower. >> we have over idea of fed voices. considerable time dudley, oilnd prices down for the american

economy. the language is changing. i am interested to know how that dynamic will work with janet yellen and how that translates for you. >> there is no agreement in the fed. you have different views here. our view is that the december meeting on december 17 will be significant. we think they will drop that and the hike comes are the first tight comes in june. that is quite a bit ahead of what the market is pricing in. there is potential for the market to bring that forward. pricest as simple as oil stay as low as they are, the sooner the rate hike comes from the fed? >> this is an interesting question. there are two schools of thought. is it the inflationary impact or impact on growth? we side with the impact on growth. if u.s. growth is stronger particularly with unemployment

falling we think that is an earlier hike. >> thank you for joining us. up, a star-studded audience. they flocked to the victoria's secret fashion show. another bloomberg exclusive. we caught up with the ceo. we bring you that conversation right here on bloomberg coming up next. ♪

victorino secrets fashion show. underwear is big business. victoria's secret turned over $6.6 billion last year and operates in 1000 stores. we caught up with the ceo. us.t is very exciting for being an international brand and we opened our store over three years ago on bond street and it is such a wonderful feeling to be here. it is one of the fashion capitals, being in london. last night they had the london fashion award so we were there forhelp them raise $75,000 in.o bring new kids we are excited to be here and to be in london. >> it is the most important time of the year for retailers across the world. after an underwhelming black friday we ask the ceo if she is still optimistic for the holiday

season. >> i think we are cautiously optimistic. we are excited about what is going on for holiday. we are very well prepared for what is happening for holiday. all in all, i think we are going to stay optimistic for this holiday season. >> bloomberg went behind the scenes of victoria's secret catwalk show. with a rare opportunity to speak with the man behind the $20 million lingerie extravaganza. ♪ i am the executive producer of the show and the chief creative officer for victoria's secret. the creative process for those out -- for the show is literally all day -- all year long. i'm thing about next year's show today. -- we do not sit down at the beginning of the year and save this year we will do it a little bit worse than last year.

we do not do that. what do we do next, what is better? this show is dramatically better than last year. costs $20 million to produce the show. it is astounding. i/o is get the question, is it worth it to spend so much money on a fashion show question mark is it worth it to be seen in 192 countries for an hour in december? i think so. this show has made us well-known worldwide. i want people to get off their privileged butts because this is a hard ticket to get and enjoy themselves. the creative director at victoria's secret. >> bend up and not shoot -- benjamin netanyahu has fired two officers following weeks of public bickering between him and members of his: russian. how inevitable was this: russian -- was this decision?

likely over very the next few -- last few weeks. he accused them of orchestrating a coup. he sacked those officers. what did for the coalition were a number of things. disagreements over tax breaks the finance minister went to put in place for homebuyers. cost of livinge for israel's middle class. disagreements of how to do with rising violence. peace talks with the palestinians which was something close to the heart of the justice ministers -- justice ministers to be live the -- tz ipi livni. would reducehat fears of the arab minority.

me a sense, this could not comment worst time economically. >> the economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time in five years, taking the hit -- taking the hit for the 50 day war. declining, trading at a 15 month. thank is almost time to weaken the shekel to boost the competitive of exporters but i do not think it had political instability in its equation when he was trying to weaken the shackle. ch heard from which -- fit downgraded -- downgrading them. thank you create elliott

gotkine joining us from tel aviv. quicktime is eyeing -- buying a company. we would talk exclusively to the ceo of club med. that is next. ♪

>> welcome back. you are looking at a live shot where george osborne will be the liver in his statement to the house of commons. that's coming up in a few hours time. his statement to the house of commons. >> time for a quick check of the foreign exchange market. nothing can stop the decline of the ruble. russia sold foreign exchange to settle. there is the aussie dollar. we are looking at those two currencies as well. the aussie dollar hitting a four-year low.

down a half a percent. are betting 92% possibility rate cuts will come. goldman says a quarter of a percent cut in march and 25 basis points in august. the yen continues to slide. no longerpan can camouflage its default risk, says the opposition lawmaker. he has been calling for default since 2009. have a look at the swiss kroner. prime minister is warning. this is the dollar rising. this is the swedish kroner falling. he says, if you don't support my budget, there is a possibility he may resign. politics are at play. have a look at the ruble. 54.17.

18 is where we are. the story of intervention, something we were told would not happen. >> these are the top headlines. the u.k. chancellor of the exchequer will deliver his statement. george osborne has already announced the extension of a program intended to help small and medium-sized dismisses. be extendedill until 2016, and just a reminder we will deliver live coverage from half past 12. sweden's prime minister says he may resign after he failed to win backing for his budget. he leads a minority coalition. may call newister elections. the funeral has taken place of the australian critic or philip cricketer philip hughes, who died while being hit by a ball during a match. he was 25 and has played for his

country since 2009. the company just raised its bid for a takeover of club med. nri joins us live from paris. great to have you with us. i'm curious. why, on television right during one of the largest and most attractive deals in french stock exchange history. it for aing to squeeze little bit more? >>. fosun has a long-term view. >> what do they bring to the table? you talk about long-term objectives. what are you telling investors they are going to do versus

rejecting the private equity side? un breaks withos its partners to become truly global. we intend to have china as our second market, after france, which is our original market. we are so intent to grow faster in latin america with a partner of fosun. today the tourism business in europe and especially france is down because of the economic crisis. it's very important for the company to have opportunity to catch growth. this is what fosun is putting into the company. >> i understand that concept of going for growth in latin america and china.

be there and will five years. give me a sense of the proportion of club med that is going to be outside of europe and north africa. give me a benchmark for investors to target. you have luxury sites at the moment. >> what we think is we need to e balanced. it should be one third in france. i am speaking about markets. we have more than 20 resorts in the alps, and we will open a new one asked weekend. next weekend. one third would come from north america, canada, the u.k., and germany. the last word would come from fast-growing markets and china. >> i have experienced your product. i have gone scuba diving.

i have gone to north africa, when i was younger. what are the chinese going to make of your product? how are you going to love off the product? -- going to evolve the product? >> we had more than 100,000 customers who go to maldives, to our resorts. let's say they just enjoy it. they enjoy the french touch. easiness to have family holidays, and what is interesting is they try everything. let's say the only difference we have in our chinese resort is we and mah-jonggooms tables. money.ians spend

they travel. how is it impacting your business? near -- in the near what is thefrica, impact so far? >> we have a limited business from russia. 12,000 guestshan in russia. it's limited. we are growing. it's just a fact. russians are mostly going skiing in the alps in winter, where we have a leading position, and in the summer they would go more to turkey and this part of the world. it's fair to say generally speaking we have suffered in the last years from what happened in the middle east, which is still a region which has problems receiving more tourists.

>> i am curious. we bringe big debates guests in on, france must perform. have structural reforms. what have you told him needs reform? what do you want to see? how is a law and -- hollande going to help you do more business and for france to grow. give me the top three lines. >> france has to change and to and we're probably doing it at a slow pace. we have to adapt our takeover bid system. we have been dragging 19 months. it will take time. french companies are active. are able to have partners around the world and partners in fast-growing

countries, i think they can do quite well. >> we have a little bit of news on france. the french government will 2015,ce no new taxes in 2016, and 2017. will that help your business? is that really going to help, or should they have structural reform? >> obviously, if our customers don't need to pay more taxes, they will take more holidays. pay muchct they had to more taxes in the last two or three years. the french market for holidays declined for the sixth semester last summer, so we had to face very severe decline. let's hope what you say will happen and our customers will

have more money to spend for the holiday. >> in a final 10 words, do you have unanimous support for this on the board?ble >> yes. >> there's one word. that's all i needed. the club med ceo. >> you asked for no less. the turkish finance minister about the country's role in the oil markets. turkey is one of the winners in the global oil glut, so what mean for the economy? we are back in two minutes.

>> welcome back. time for company news. there are reports oil giant shell is rumored to be considering a bp takeover. shares in bp and four and a half percent higher. neither company has commented on the speculation. consideringany is metal unit. the cfo of the business vale also left open the possibility

a ceo. middle of thehe journey. we have two strong years of until we complete our program. we are working hard to reduce spending and to try to do the same project with less. investors, showing them we're going to be able to periodugh this two year spending less resources. >> uber is teaming up with the second richest man. they will feature the app on all mobile phones in mexico starting today. the partnership will extend across latin america in coming months. to the turkish finance minister. seems to be

benefiting from lower oil prices. low oilson asked how prices are benefiting the country. to narrowline tends our deficit by $5 billion. that's quite a sizable improvement. help make it more manageable. inflation.p reduce what else can we ask for? ask you talk about the impact it's going to have on inflation. interest assume lower rates? >> that would depend on a lot of factors. sustainedere is decline that would facilitate lower rates. that is not something i would like to comment on the monetary policy. position is very

strong. debt to gdp ratio is very clearly we have a strong position. if the deficit continues to narrow, which is quite likely, i think that would make turkey's story a lot more compelling. >> that was the turkish finance ministers speaking in an exclusive interview. we will take a short break. when we come back, we will talk to the chancellor in the u.k. about his platform. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back. let's get to one of our top stories. george osborne is said to deliver his annual autumn statement. mark barton is at westminster. he is joined by the chief economist at the institute of directors. >> thank you for joining us today. is saying income tax thresholds should increase each year under a triple lock system.

what is this triple lock system? a tripleut forward lock on the pensions. it is earnings or inflations. originallyat was designed to be something that caught the wealthiest of society huge numbers of people. we have many more people being caught by that income tax. we are saying, let's play fair. the way to play fair is i am going to increase that threshold in line with earnings. >> give us an idea. drag damages fiscal and economy? >> more people are being dragged into the income tax system. that means more money by the government and less money from the private sector.

clearly, the more the tax is pushed through, the less people have in their own pocketbook. the beautiful it -- beauty of cost anythingsn't now. it's just a promise they will behave at her in the future. they still have an enormous deficit. they are saying, i am going to be playing fair in the future. >> do see them realistically taking this or not? >> i think so. we had a reasonable conversation about this. the government, if you look what happened in the last budget, they made changes to the pension system. those were not widely anticipated. he is very astute. changesod at making that don't cost a lot. that's the kind of promise he has to look for. >> you call it an abolition on the cliff edge, which may happen

today. >> we can help. i think the chancellor has talked to a lot of people. a lot of business have been saying -- businesses have been saying, what are things that concern you? system anda gradual put tapers in. >> business taxes. i think i sat in the studio for years. they want something to happen. you are calling for a freeze. what is realistic? more of an increase in cpi? >> it might make a difference. in reality, the problem with business taxes is it is a fixed cost. you have to pay a huge amount. that is what businesses object

to. it is better. that is what businesses complain about. of course people would rather less steep tax increases. >> the other thing you are calling for is inheritance tax to be absorbed into capital gains tax at a lower rate of 10%. >> if you remember, the thing that put consumers ahead for the first time in 2007 was the plan to radically raise the level of inheritance tax to one million pounds. they have not allowed that to happen. we are saying, how can the government keep that promise and make it affordable to the exchequer? we combined it with capital gains tax.

there is a sensible way forward. be able to keep what they accumulated over a lifetime, passive to their children. that's what they are after. how can i pass on a large chunk of wealth into the future? >> you mention the public finance. how much of a bind is he in? 2010 have notn been met. how realistic are his other goals to meet the structural deficit by 1718 and the overall 18 19. by is it doable? >> there was a change in the way wages are constructed. employment is made higher than we think. another big change is the way in which people have become more reluctant to pay taxes.

what osborne has done is to cut a lot of spending. that is great for that exchequer , but we have not seen an effect on taxes. looking ahead from here, can the exchequer make a difference in the future? if people change the way they are paying taxes, it says much more of the savings have to come from reducing some benefits. the most the pensions benefits are clearly -- some of the pension benefits are clearly going to be under pressure. publicd have to reduce service. it has been less painful than people feared. he has done a lot but has a lot to go. >> back to the studio. the chief economist at the iod calling for a big overhaul of the income tax system in the u.k. .> there is a wonderful saying you will get grass.

>> mark barton is off to explain that during the break. it's a bit early for me. 7:55 in london. "on the move" is next. there will be plenty more as we go through the programming, and we will bring you opening statements later today. ♪

."t's welcome to "on the move the moments away from from start of european trading. it is all about the chancellor of the exchequer, george osborne. osborne makes a statement. the government continues to miss its target. osborne looks to cement business. easy money. the treasury and the bank of england announced a one-year extension of the lending scheme until january, 2016. the program will focus on boosting credit to small and medium-sized companies.

speculations that osborne could announce plans to incentivize u.k. homebuilders. those are a few of the things we will be talking about. when i look at the open i am going to be looking at futures. euro stoxx 50 flat. dax futures higher by 22 points. looking for something movers as well. manus cranny. >> a very good day for you -- to you. the dax at record highs yesterday. by 16x has gone up percent since its october lows. is it overdone? china hits a three-year high. equity markets, we broke trend. commodity companies are on a low. the pmi will be out today.