>> the ubs chief executive update me on his strategy to cut back and refocus, and he gives himself mark on his progress -- so far. his progress >> i'm going to be very generous with myself. >> another exclusive. blackrock's chief executive tells us global economies must reform. central banks cannot do it all on their own. >> their job cannot have the same impact, especially in when we had great

volatility. >> and a big deal coming in oil as crude prices fall to new five-year lows. they are said to have revised talks with talisman. repsol are set to have a revised talks with talisman. >> welcome to "countdown." >> a bloomberg exclusive for you. it is the chief executive at ubs. i joined him for an exclusive interview. i wanted to know more. i started by asking, three years into your tenure as the head of how he would score himself. >> i am going to be generous with myself. i give myself lucky number eight. >> lucky number eight. i can't remember -- i can

remember our first interview, and i said, do you think people bitthought you were a strange, downsizing, focusing on wealth management. you were very cautious, and you said it was too early. we are three years in. yes or no? success or not? >> eight. >> that's fine. the market has been fair to you as well. i want to go back. i remember reporting on the headline, 10,000 jobs to go. i know that's not the number we arrived at. those are hard decisions to arrive at. was that one of the most difficult? wiser think that is the most that was -- >> i think the most difficult decision. the decision about positioning and isiness was clear,

and my colleagues had a high level of confidence. the board was supportive. we had strong confident this was the right way to go. the consequences were clear. people weres comparing what we were doing to commissioning. time wet that point in knew we had an excellent business and wealth management. we had an excellent swiss business. we had an excellent investment to bebut they just needed refocused and reshaped. we knew we had the ingredients. that was the most important confidence factor we had, so it was all about execution and making sure we wouldn't overpromise and under deliver.

has comeometimes through when we go through quarterly results. in the past learn three years and going through this change? you have had three years at ubs. learned inou managing? in that one, executing the strategy, the last five or six years of this environment from a micro standpoint of view teaches me one thing clearly. tailwind of the economy or the markets helping you. look at your business and what you can control. unfortunately, it plays out every quarter. cautious balanced and outlook. we are right. that's something that helped us,

saying, let's do the right thing and fix our fundamental part of interestess, because rates, you name it. they are not going to go the way you desire them to go. there is a problem. >> there is a high probability we will lose some compensation in the form of the federal reserve for the bank of englan . possibly raising rates. is that perhaps the biggest risk ? nobody has done it. nobody has stopped qe and raise rates. a reverse policy that would mean you have a big change in the market. we do expect next year's rates in the u.s. to go up. it shouldn't be a shock.

we're likely to see the what the u.s. has been doing for the last few years. >> the beginning of what? upgrade experiments? inng qe and europe -- europe, i think i am right in your view it is not the same as doing qe in the united states of america. >> absolutely, because they are two different systems. the structural problems are different. i don't think you we can resolve on its own. i think you e is a powerful qel, particularly -- i think is a parcel tool, especially if it goes along with structural reforms -- is a powerful tool, especially if it goes along with structural reforms and other reforms.

>> you can get the full interview in a special half-hour program coming up. the one thing i took away from that conversation was there is no one risk in markets that is going to cause issues. it could be a combination. you heard him talk about quantitative easing and how that differs. you heard him talking about how europe is going to have to get closer together. we had a chat about liquidity. he said ultimately bank customers are going to have to pay more. discussion.joyable >> did you deliberately choose to wear the same outfit? >> the producer and cliff jones -- beautifully lit. .> so your stylist >> there were no polling exits. >> no time. >> i said, no time. you see what he did with the tide. -- i said, no tie. you see what he did with the

tie. >> the chief executive of blackrock says the u.s. needs to invest in infrastructure and that it is one of the great opportunities for investors in the future. equities.mistic about >> i am optimistic because i do believe -- what is the big surprise for me, despite my optimism, that corporate profits have been keeping pace. we have not seen a gigantic increase in pes. cheap equity market. despite the prices, we are fair value to modestly above fair value. sawre not at the levels we in 2000. se are not seeing the same p.e. where you had true bubbles. inthe director will be live

the morning. don't miss that interview. that's coming up on "on the move." >> and revise talks with the spanish energy companies over a deal. oil prices have tumbled to five-year lows. here with more is ryan chilcote. is this a good match? are there possible synergies to be had or not? >> there are definitely possible synergies. it is classic predator and prey. you have a spanish producer where the market cap is ready billion dollars. you have got the struggling -- is $30 billion. you have got the struggling shale producer. the spanish producer wants to get out of its home market into north america. that's where talisman has many assets. is talisman share prices keep falling. 60% since august. appeared therepsol

first time in july. it gave up the talks in august. talisman share prices have fallen. even as we came up with arris group, saying as they are talking, the share price could -- even as we came up with arris with the scoop, saying they are talking, the share price is affected. the north sea is a problem. because of falling output. that is a general problem in the north sea. they are looking at a potential write-down later this year. they are looking at high decommissioning costs. question, all energy stocks fell yesterday. if you look at the canadian

energy stocks, talisman is a canadian producer. almost 6%. maybe there was a premium for investors. about one and a half percent, and still talisman is falling. synergies.otential it is very attractive to get into shale, despite the fact oil prices are plummeting. --y are looking at creating buying a plant on the canadian atlantic coast. if they can get in the marsalis formation, that is one place talisman has a lot of assets. that is a huge pocket of gas that remains to be tapped in new york and pennsylvania. they can type it in. there is a lot of potential for this deal, but the problem is the volatility is so great it makes accomplish for the sides to come together. i should point out it could be

the whole company, or it could just be assets. talisman has been very public they are looking to sell any of their assets or the least profitable ones. >> there is investor pressure. carl icahn is one of those investors shaking things up a little bit and trying to get them to sell some of those assets, as you say. >> that's correct. with him on one side, you can bet if he thinks the best solution is to sell the economy out right as opposed to assets, that's what he is going to be pushing for. you have to look at the brand price. -- brent price. brent trading below 64 dollars a barrel. it ended thursday above 70. the benchmark for the united states, very important to pay attention to as well. about 62.5 dollars. barclays had a note yesterday saying if it went below 63.70,

all bets were off the table. we will see what goes on. >> we will put to him some of the latest positioning around the oil price, and he can tell us where oil prices are going. thank you very much. >> you can join us on twitter. join the conversation. am @manuscranny. >> i have been tweeting about china. manus has been tweeting his big interview. the show started with a flourish, a very good interview. some nice pictures of you in a glamorous environment. tieless manus cranny. >> my producer and i had a good time. >> i get said to westminster. you get the glitz. -- i get sent

to westminster. >> coming up, the decline of the yen is dividing some investors. is the seven-year low the lowest the currency will go? we will talk to our next guest, the global strategist at lgt capital partners. stay with us.

>> welcome back. is up for reelection. japan goes to the polls in less than a week. thewill the falling yen and bode?my in recession joining us is our next guest. in your notes, you pose the worthy question. are speaking about japan, can we really speak of a recession when real wages in private consumption are rising? the labor market is tight, and the stock market is booming. can we talk of a failure of s?aganomics -- of abenomic why is the market saying

something different? isi don't think the market saying something different, at least in terms of equities and also in terms of the yen. began is plummeting. that is in response to quad -- is plummeting. that is in response to quantitative easing. a market is soaring. i'm not sure if the market disagrees with that view. negativity,ot of especially with the gdp numbers, but i think if you scratch the surface a little bit, the japanese economy is not that bad. >> i should have said, why haven't any commentators in focusing on that? for the election, is it going to nomics part two after the

election? >> i must say while i am initive on abenotics general, perhaps it is fair to call it after the central bank chief. i am not confident about this political theater going on. i would like to keep some withvation, but overall, the election or without the election, it was moving in the right direction and will continue to move in the right direction because the most important thing is monetary policy. talkedrd arrow, the much about third arrow is not as important at this stage. is it not as important at this stage?

+++ it has to do a little bit with monetary policy. , but to give you a more practical example, if you think back to ben bernanke stay -- ben bernanke's today, he was willing to do quantitative easing. there is a thinking in the monetary school of thought that says if you do quantitative easing, if you're monetary policy is all right and your monetary policy focuses like a laser on getting monetary aggregate growing, in the short term, which is a couple years, a few years, it doesn't matter what politicians do. i think mr. kuroda is in the same manner of thinking. for politicians to do silly things, which is a good thing for the market. >> did that the logic apply for europe and the ecb? to buythe ecb be rushing government debt to give politicians room to do what they need to be doing?

many would argue if you give them more room they probably won't be doing what they are meant to be doing. >> i will not comment on politicians in europe or any other region. i think the same is true for europe. a lot of people say it is tit-for-tat. in do quantitative easing exchange for structural reforms, and there is the argument in europe that qe does not work in europe because it is so different from america. japan is very different from america. it never had a corporate debt market or a financial market for debt. thatthe banking system works. qe works because it is an important and powerful tool of monetary easing. it doesn't solve all the problems, but it does solve an important problem, which is the same in europe and japan, which is nominal gdp growth or lack of nominal gop -- gdp growth.

>> can you make sense of what is happening in china today with the shanghai comp is it up as much as 2%? policy makers narrowing the pool of corporate debt that can be used as collateral for short-term loans. bonds fell. stocks fell. stocks are on a great run. what is going on in china today? a slightst gave me headache with too much information all leverage, -- informational leverage. i think that's the key word on china. the fair analogy would be to say very broadly speaking, the downside in the equity market is probably limited, and it's time for a rebound. the magnitude and intensity of is a shares market rally very much driven by market leverage and private investors term,ts, so in the short

maybe it has gotten ahead of itself, and that's why you will see volatility. it's still a very young and dynamic market, and sometimes you have a snowball effect in either way, so it's now happening on the upside, so i think correction should be in the cards, but overall i think it's fair to say china has broadened the overall desperate in the overall picture and the outlook is not negative there anymore. -- i think china has brightened the overall picture and outlook is not negative there anymore. >> thank you. >> that is the second big deal in the telecom sector. after drug he is paying for portugal telecom. paying for portugal telecom. what will they do with the money , after the break.

>> billionaire patrick drahi has done his second big deal of the for $7.4uiring telecom billion. this will give more cash for the home market, brazil. drahi agreed to by the french wireless company.

-- coutts could fetch a large price. they try to reverse a six-year lossmaking streak. stay with us. . / .

>> welcome back to countdown. it is time for a check. the dollar has decided to turn around and traded lower. the yen has risen. there is a bit of a pause in the amazing trajectory. the wall street journal is carrying an article that the fed oil consider dropping a considerable amount of time.

the language of rates may change. the market says six months between the dropping out and rates getting higher. the aussie dollar is still down. sincengest losing streak 1979. there you go. targets iron ore prices. australia bank says the aussie by 2016.ll bottom out a lower growth will cut rates in august of next year. that is the checklist. we will give you some of the top headlines. in an exclusive interview with bloomberg, the chief executive has likened this to a bank decommissioning a nuclear plant. he said it was making the right call.

we have strong confidence this was the right way to go. the consequences were clear. in some cases, people were comparing what we are doing to decommissioning a nuclear plant. but you can see the interview in full coming soon on bloomberg. >> oil has fallen to a low. a rack reduce the cost of the q reduced the cost of the crude to the lowest in 11 years. until the output changes or demand increases. is accused ofnk

using shell companies to evade taxes. million dollars in taxes, penalties -- taxes and penalties. there were three show companies that had no other function other than to receive tax bills they could never pay. >> the duke and duchess of cambridge have attended a brooklyn nets basketball game. they had courtside seats. there was a controversy. lebron james, playing for the aeveland cavaliers, wore hadk warm up shirt that the words, "i can't breathe." >> let's get to another exclusive interview today. larry feint is speaking to bloomberg and political reform is high on his agenda.

cannot do it all on their own. >> we can not have as great a certainty going forward. we have central banks trying to stabilize the world. they did all the work. we have rates that are so low that there job cannot have the -- the job cannot have the same hadct in europe as when we rate volatility and high rates. we had a mismatch between demand and supply in so many different areas. we have to, unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you want to think about it, depend on politicians to do these reforms to build and rebuild the global economy. that will create a lot of instability. we are witnessing this in the last few years. democracies are as messy as we can all remember in our lifetimes.

i do not think it will get less messy. we will see this kind of volatility -- i am hopeful because new leaders in these various countries are talking about reforms. they know we need to have these reforms to make economies more competitive and create jobs to andce youth unemployment create hope for the middle-class that there can be wage growth. everybody has the same hopes and desires. it will be the exceptional leader who executes that. i would say the president of mexico may be the only movingtic leader who is down the path of transforming his economy. hopefully, prime minister renzi will begin the path of reforms that he promoted. he talked about labor reforms last week.

be will have an election and, hopefully, it will validate him to do reforms that are necessary. witness what happens in the united states and other countries. these will create uncertainties. whether these occur are do not be theit will really juice that determines if my forecasts are right or wrong. managing director will be on bloomberg this morning. do not miss that interview after 8:00. believer inlike a the political reform process. he was invoking renzi and the italians moving. they seem to be big believers. the recommendation has been overweight.

italy, spain, and france. they believe that the reform actions -- >> sergio is calling for reforms . that is the one thing that has to happen. couldr to greece and what be a risky gamble by the country's prime minister. he has called a presidential election and moving the vote to tomorrow. with theols joins us details. what is behind the surprise move and does the minister have votes secured to elect a new president? .his has implications >> it does, indeed. take a look at the confidence vote he wanted and he does not have the votes. 300.s 155 out of

he needs 180 votes. he needs to find 25 more votes. it is a gamble. they are moving forward. the elections are ceremonial and are moved ahead to december 17. it will be the last round on december 29. this has to do with the bailout. greece wanted to exit from the tri-cut and that is not going to ka and all stop -- troi that is not going to happen. here is what the finance minister had to say yesterday. he said, on the basis of the work done, even other has been progress, it has been impossible to positively conclude the year. they will be landing to check the books and that raises the political temperature in athens. you look at the leftist party

leading in the polls and they seized upon this as a plot to cover up the fact that greece may be going for an additional bailout and another round. they are using this to their political advantage. >> what are the outstanding issues between the troika and the greek government? set outk government has plans to find alternative financing. ofwe are looking at a gap 2.5 billion euros for the budget for 2015 and that comes from two places. the argument from the troika is that the growth projections for greece are too optimistic and the other part is increasing the value added tax. the officials say they have bled too much. and in therecession third quarter, they had growth. it was higher than the average. we are getting into projections arguments and how much more pain the greek economy can enter.

that does not bode well -- endure. that does not bode well. >> join us on twitter and let us know what you think of the show. manus wants to grade himself out of 10. 8 out of 10. >> it is a chinese lucky number. @manuscranny. we are always here. >> at lesson on alternative ways to raise capital. a chief executive from a crowd funding service will join us. we will hear about the risks of crowdfunding it next.

>> welcome back. it is time for company news. bangovernment has uber indefinitely after a driver was accused of rape. the ceo vowed to bring the

perpetrator to justice. g uber inre banninh portland. they say the company violates laws because they do not have licenses to operate. poses anthat uber immediate, real, and substantial threat. uber driver who killed a six-year-old last new year's eve has been arrested. bailriver was released on and is going to be charged later this week. >> let's take our focus to the startup sector. the rise of alternative finance is disrupting capital raising and the united kingdom is a world leading hub.

lynn,s according to jeff the founder of seedrs. tell us about the regulatory environment. they say the u.k. is at the forefront of this. >> absolutely. i think there are a number of reasons. london is a financial center of the world and it should not surprise is that we are seeing financial innovation. regulation is hitting it on the head. it is the right balance between investor a customer protection. >> they have really tried to give their first attempt at regulating the sector this year. the areais a subset of that has been regulated all long . they have regulations they came out at the beginning of the year that were warmly embraced by investors. so far, they are going well. >> it may be a little bit cruel.

it was warned that you will lose yourmoney 90% -- lose money. 90%, so far, fail. >> it is high risk,. -- high risk, no question about it. investing is lucrative, so long as you diversify. i think that is right. four out of five or nine out of 10 businesses will fail. portfolio, a good you will outperform the market. of asiness failure is less worry than what cuss -- one companies -- then when companies succeed. >> you need to have certain investment in place. angel investors sign up for one of thens and

main differentiations between equity crowdfunding platforms in the u.k. is that there are those like seedrs, that provide protection, and those that leave people unprotected. that will be the main distinction the between which investors see return and which do not. what youlooking at said before. if you have 10,000 to put in over businesses, if 80% of those in has to2000 you put work hard to get your money back. >> it does. that is generally what happens with startups. you do not see a small return. they either fail or give you a big return. if you look at the numbers, historically. , the top 10 are sent -- the top 10% have tended to

produce returns and have done outstanding, often returning 30 times under capital. 30 times on your capital. what kind of vetting process -- is it just, let's go into the breach? >> there is a vetting process. we do a thorough review of disclosures and see proof of every single thing that they say. submittedf his thesis to seedrs goes live on the platform. who decides.wd it is amazing how clever investors are. 200-300 people voting with their say a tremendous amount. >> how easy is it to track or

pick a winner? to i think it is difficult pick an individual winner. i think it is easy to build a good and diversified portfolio that has a high likelihood of having a number of winners. >> investors over the last decades, you would not have seen them. >> i think any of the great took 1.5 years to raise seed ground. number of the great successes, if you looked, you would have said, he or she is crazy. >> you look at regulation and the lighter touch regulation in the u.k. your business into the u.s. in some form? >> we are. in the first half of next year, we are going to open to a credited investor. the regulatory regime is quite

different in the u.s. and is more restrictive. regulatory reform is coming and we have a ways to go. we believe that we have a good platform and that investing in early-stage businesses is not a domestic activity. we have been europe-wide for over a year now. some cracking ideas come along. give us the big one in 2015 as you look at the markets. marissa mayer said do not try to reinvent the wheel. what are your calls? >> we are going to see more adding to the wheel. i think we have amazing businesses. you look at london and the foreign exchange businesses. we have funding circle and our business. to see great growth. we are growing 300% a year and continue to do so. we will see it across the board. x we will see more specializing

inh businesses that operate the similar sphere as yours. .> i actually think not we will see more models across the same platform. >> thank you for joining us today. thank you for joining us. parison website is in for a windfall today. stake in the her business. found out -- find out how much after the break.

>> in a couple of years, we'll have the possibility to invest and improve our visibility around the world and provide more and more success and visibility to the brand. >> that was a ceo talking to abouterg's pimm fox reinventing the luxury brand. we have a little bit of news for you on some of the markets. marquez the record on the china market. let me bring you with -- what is happening this morning. you see the new level in oil and what happened in the region has implications.

has ramifications, in terms of funding. >> interesting things happening in china today. 25% and them rising down 5% today. a volatile 24 hours. the big news is that china says that lower rated bonds can no longer be used as collateral for a short-term loan. that has spread to government yuan has fallen the most in 2008. >> there is a good story about what happens in recent years. there is an increase in margin debt and borrowed money. see whichresting to stocks are being bought. equities and the

increases in financials. not all of the ships are being lifted by the tide. let's take a break from the with thisd we will go one that we mentioned before the break. figure.me to go about hayleyry parsons, who sold her stake in a comparison website and bought a ferrari. >> this made me chuckle. it is the telegraph and it is elton john. >> go on, sing it. >> that is what they want on the show. they want me to sing. he was at the tennis tournament. "i'm still standing."

>> i thought we had to do it. it is not just united. five wins in a row. this man. percy. >> countdown continues after a break.

>> a bloomberg exclusive. himself marks out of 10 on his progress so far. myself.be generous with -- i will be generous with myself. told global economies must reform and central banks cannot do it all on their own. >> they cannot have the same impact in europe as when we were

-- you know, rainfall until it he. tooil and crude prices fall five-year lows. >> welcome to countdown. i am mark barton. >> i am manus cranny. >> breaking news. upal retail sales are against an increase of 9%. areu.k. retail sales international and came in at 24% on an estimate of an increase of 25%. the u.s. retail sales are only 9%, compared to 14%. they have been conversations about foreign exchange moving

against this. that is amended take account of. the stocks are down year to date and hit by exchange movements. it was said by the center. in terms of other parts of the business, we are getting retail sales. some analysts are estimated and the rest of the retail sales are down. there may be strength and weaknesses. thatll, the number is not far away from where analysts estimated. are looking for any detail or comments on the outlook for the business. that is something investors are looking for. he is talking about strong

performance in the statement coming through and says that the sales have gathered momentum. september and october, they challenge the sales and we have had our biggest ever week. for now, they are pulling out comments. >> it is about timing. shares are up. they have had a rally and they have doubled last year. >> it is indeed. come.nd much more is to now, a bloomberg exclusive for you. i joined him for an exclusive no --iew and want to know him atto know more about the helm of ubs. how would he score himself out of 10?

, so iis christmas time will be generous with myself. i will give a lucky number. 8. people whohink the thought you were a bit strange that tracking and focusing on wealth management -- you are cautious to say that it was too early to say that your strategy was successful. -- success or not? we are doing well. the market has been fair to you. thent to go back to headline of 10,000 jobs to go. i know the number we have arrived at. those are hard to make. was that one of the most difficult?

>> i think it was the most difficult. in respect -- because of the various options was clear. haved my coloring's confidence and we'll head very strong confidence that this was the right way to go. the consequences were clear on people. that would be right to do so, compared to the plans. time, we havein an excellent business and wealth management and we have an excellent investment bank that just needed to be refocused. we knew that we had the ingredients.

importanthe most confidence factor that we had. execution and making sure that we do not overpromise and under-deliver. >> that has come through when we have gone through the results. what did you learn in the past three years going through the change as the ceo? what have you learned about managing the crisis? in that one, in setting and executing strategy, the last 5-6 years of this environment come from a macro standpoint, taught me one thing clearly. environment, from a

macro standpoint, taught me one thing clearly. it plays out every quarter. a balanced and cautious outlook. unfortunately, we are right. that is really something that helps us to go through the let's doe in saying, the right thing and fix our fundamental problems. and interesttivity rates, you name it, they are not going to go the way that you desire they go. >> there is a possibility or probability that we would lose compensation in the form of the federal reserve or the bank of rates. raising is that the biggest risk? it.dy has really done nobody has really stopped and raised rates. >> that would mean that we have

a big change in the picture and, with respect to neck year, the rates will go up. it should not be a shock. in europe, we are likely to see the beginning of what the u.s. last two years. >> the beginning of a great experiment? doing she would be is, in your view, not the same as the united states of america. >> absolutely. they are fundamentally different systems and the structural problems are different. i do not think you can resolve the issues on the -- on their own. i think it is a powerful tool is a goes alongside structural reforms.nd fiscal

and, political reforms that will be needed in order to be successful going forward. >> that was the ubs ceo talking to me. you can see the full interview and a special half-hour program coming soon on bloomberg. >> we have breaking news from tesco. they say the profit will not theed 1.4 billion pounds in time that ends in 2015. it will not exceed that level. they will share details on measures they have taken. the priority is to restore competitiveness and the steps taking is impacting short-term profitability. the early feedback from customers is encouraging and they are focusing on doing the right thing for customers as

well -- for customers, as well . the company announced some accounting irregularities that started earlier this year and announced that the irregularities will continue to impact the company in the second half. they did say that they overstated the profit estimate by 200 -- 250 million pounds. that caused investors, including warren buffett to cut. on what happened with tesco going through the terminal. >> let's talk about the markets. there are revised talks on a deal. oil prices have tumbled.

let's talk about a potential deal for some assets or the whole company. >> this could make sense. or not. it has been clear that they are try to get into the market and they have cash thanks to nationalization. they have already said that they would like to get into developing markets. say that those assets are in north america. the formation in pennsylvania and new york, the show formation. if they can agree on the asset sales, quite possibly, if they can agree on the price, they will come back. america aren north >> >> you have huge drops in

energy and, if you look at the canadian energy stocks, they fell. interest,given the intel has been doing better. having said that, there is a lot of that and they are in the shell space. they have assets and, on the whole, they were in a great space right now. that is despite the fact the company has been public in their ofire to sell part or all itself. and has nothing able to pull it off. >> thank you very much. that was the latest on this

story. coming up, we will look ahead to the new year with commodities and the dollar. that is according to our next guest. where should you put your money? peter sullivan is coming up after the break.

>> let's look ahead. 2013 -- 2015 will be dominated strong dollar and weaken mighty prices.

what does that mean? we can expect double-digit earnings next year? >> i think that is right. you willategist says get double digit earnings. this year, let's look at the drivers. the stronger dollar. we start to have that already and that could boost earnings. we have seen the negative side of lower commodity prices and the costs to companies. the u.s. is growing. >> that is the upside. that is the bullish that. you say that you need a strategy for resilience. for could be the shock 2015? us is the issue for potential for policy surprise. doing the thinkers are something they do not know how to do and we have never had qe

on this scale. raining it back will be a challenge. roll the diceo again? you have central banks doing something that no one has written a playbook. the key recommendation we make is high dividend yield. >> we coming to some specifics in just a moment. i want to ask about oil prices and how quickly they are adjusting portfolios and strategies. this is what you see 2015 as being. do you see the levels sustained? neutral and we are that is the safest place to be, given the bottom. in europe, we are more stubborn. i would throw in valuation. valuation.ck to enterprise values capital and it

is one for the oil companies. oilt is below one for the companies, a gets interesting. for 2015, we expect energy stocks to outperform. >> you expect more in this sector? we have talks. lot moree seeing a because of the decline in oil price? >> the cost of buying the company is about the same as buying the assets. >> the other big thing is really favor. you cited a couple of different stocks. talk us through that. is there hope for dividends? what's it is interesting.

to some who have never looked at the sector. now, you are getting reaffirmation from some companies that you are going to whether form of capital it is a special dividend or buyback. upis interesting and coming on a new class of adventures. >> they are putting themselves in front, as you say. >> everyone knows they over invested. the whole world knows that. -- onerage mutual fund thing that we do that is slightly different is look at where the mutual fund is as efficient. the average is underweight. >> i'm sure you are a smart investor. we will be back in just a moment. >> we will carry on. the currency kickers and yields with regulations. rewriting the rules. stay with us.

>> welcome back to countdown. sullivan and the head of equity research. thank you for staying with us. you see dynamics in europe and the u.k. elections and that has consequences.

how does that play out? 10, we times out of treat elections as noise. there is a policy on certain industries. risks and a lot of .ncertainty with the landscape there are places where this could help. particularly telecoms. the european union want to encourage investment and they have to offer a chance of a decent return. that is new and we have not had that in about a decade. it is something that we do not think investors have fully factored. >> let's talk about margin gains. these are companies you think

will make improvements in their margins. >> it is across the board. it will affect the sector. we highlighted deutsche telecom and vodafone. the landscape of the industry is changing and we think that investors have not fully realized the impact of that. impact with the strong dollar. are we late to the party? is it a currency kicker? the doing this 25 years and have never seen the currency risk factored in. so, it is an unknown. and was look at this and shrug their shoulders. is always a shock in our view. it is never fully factored in. forill be a positive kicker

margins and earnings next year. >> you break it down and talk about the autos and luxury. i admit interested to know if currency is going to balance out .gainst china and asia >> i think that it will. you look at where this is positioned. the average fund was over luxury goods. and itey are under way was the best performing sector last month. that is an interesting one to our sector. >> thank you very much for joining us and it was good to get your thoughts. up on the program, russia is heading towards a recession. why are so many putting their money into new mercedes and porsches? >> you can follow us on twitter now and forever. there you go.

>> on twitter forever. >> the event of the day. manus.ergio and a great interview. keep watching and tell us what you think about it.

>>'s welcome back to countdown. let's check in on the markets. down a see they were little bit. the journal carries a story overnight and says the federal reserve may consider taking away rates at a considerable time. there is a big debate.

if considerable time was removed , the distance between considerable rate hikes is six months and there was the warning of dropping commitment after the good news that we had from the report. down.ssie dollar is thanks to mark darden, is the longest -- they to mark barton, this is the largest losing streak. droppedfidence index andthey cut the target down rate cuts will come in 2015. let's give you some of the top headlines. in an exclusive interview with

bloomberg, the chief executive reboundas likened the of the banks to decommissioning a nuclear plant. the plan to shrink the bank. he told me he made the right call. >> we have confidence that this was the right way to go. the consequence was clear. in some cases, people were comparing what we were doing to decommissioning a nuclear plant. but speaking to me. you can see the full interview coming to bloomberg. >> a five-year low. follow saudi arabia with crude prices. they have reduced the cost of the light crude to the lowest in 11 years. remain ats oil will

$65 a barrel until opec changes or increased -- demand increases. lawsuit isovernment , penalties, and interest. deutsche bank made a job with a firm. they have no other function than to receive tax bills they could never pay. >> the duke and duchess of cambridge have attended a basketball game. seats.ple had courtside there was controversy before the game. lebron james, playing for the cleveland cavaliers, had a black warm-up shirt that said, "i wordsbreathe," the last

by eric gardner. profits exceeding 1.4 billion pounds. let's bring in charles allie and -- charles allen. it tells you everything you knew to know about this. >> yeah. again. it is not necessarily a huge surprise. food sales are falling 14 months in a row. we know tesco has been at the bottom of the range within the food retail group and they said, in a statement today, they would add stocks. you have sales rising and it is no big surprise that it will be somewhat lower. i think it was not much better than a guess for much people was nott people -- it much better than a guess for most people. one of the eight people

suspended is not coming back and you say the changes are good. what do we want to hear? what the want to know trading strategy is. where a they going to price against the competition and what will it do for the range. .he range had become bloated it has to be narrowed down. it is the only way they can get better volumes and prices. reflected inmpaign these numbers. >> that's what they are talking about. onis taking a toll profitability in the short-term. christmas looks like it could be

complicated by the emergence of discounters. >> traditionally, people have tended to go back to the mainstream supermarkets at they always do better over christmas. tesco might get some of that, as well . christmas will be difficult for them. in the first quarter were lower than expected. trading conditions remain challenging. >> i think you were talking about australia always having been a big strategy for them. seennk, generally, we have competition increase and they have not got the ride that they had a couple of years ago. it is difficult to get customers

and there are more going after the sales. >> they are talking about the pricing today. there are different places. how does this work? >> they make sure they charge the same amount for the season. in australia, they want to be able to set a price and it sticks for the season, rather than the price going up, as it probably was before. >> talk about the big focus points and the cyber monday. we had the promos here and black friday. points ande everybody wants discounts. >> i think they were talking about the first weeks of november. retailers, it is

massively and efficient to do this. au have people and you have palace. in the internet, someone else's doing all of that. we have seen another famous retailer. >> good. >> i found one near me. >> interesting. we will ask him if he is having a party. the face of the ongoing western sanctions could emerge a surprise winner. the bloomberg international correspondent joins us.

vehicles?xury is this the only one that counts? >> for the purpose of manus's see threehavior, we -- brands holding value. these are overall car sales. they are down some 4%. the ruble has been absolutely crushed. you are seeing some wealthy russians parking at the ruble. it was 36% last month. lexis is up. october and were cds is a little more that. . it is not all luxury vehicles. take a look. they have not good long-term

investments. they figure they were down and audi was down 16%. some brands in the expectation is that they will lose their value. not -- maybe they are not as good avenue in investment as everyone thought. -- as good of an investment as everyone thought. i do not know whether or not christmas food holds value after christmas. manus for mark may have something to say. >> they may. twice i never thought i would have such a large conversation about values. has an immediate impact in an uplifting feeling.

you can join us on twitter. let us know about your booze intake. , at mark barton. right up, it is the bart charged time. -- chart time. that is after the break. stay with us.

>> it is time for the chart. how long can i hold a summons for dramatic effect. it depends on if you live in europe or the united states. the chart compares gasoline in europe and the united states began thet crude oil collapse. fall has been since the end of june. purple since june. line at the top

according to european commission data. 27% is according to data with the automobile administration. that is the green line. the other line is european and gasoline, excluding tax. that shows a drop. the head of commodity strategy in cup and hagan sums it up perfectly. he says that two thirds of the price he pays -- we pay in europe is tax at the pump. he goes on to say that the changes are movements in crude oil. it is an outright level, rather than a price. here are the figures. four dollars a

barrel. in the u.s., and amounts to $.49 a gallon, according to data. there you go. the oil decline, to use a phrase, is a distant dream for european drivers. you are looking at a live shot of the city of london. equities are set to open this way there you go -- this way. there you go. the stocks are declining across asia and fell in the u.s. yesterday. it is 14 minutes until the start of the tuesday equity session. after the break, manus on oil. he is going to go live. >> we will take a break.

>> welcome back to countdown. taking a stance. prices and said prices lower. let's take a look. thank you for joining us. how significant is it when we

see iraq and saudi arabia cutting prices for customers in asia. this is all going to market share. >> exactly. it is not surprising. they are talking about cutting production and upholding the target level in asia. and the only growing market. theire them pursuing discounts to levels we have not seen in the past nine years. >> 11 year lows and pricing for some of these countries. howre looking at prices and hedge funds are positioned for oil prices. what does it tell us about what

you think of oil prices. rising and longs that was the most in 20 months. --seems that there were there was more money. was that your view? or, was that to come? with average the bottom or close to the bottom of the hedge fund. i think that, if you look a little bit longer term, it sends it -- it sounds reasonable for the midtown -- midterm price. you talk about the corrections think thoseand i putting bets on price is not falling further, that is falling. they are looking grave. we could see prices continue for a while.

they may be unsustainably low. we are not seeing the slow down that would be required. seeing ine you investment strategies in your region? we were saying that one of the biggest concerns was that it inht discourage investment oil supply in the future. you see that as something to gain momentum in your part of the world? >> i think that, if you look at newf, there will not be capacity. iraq has ambitious plans to keep the abilitynd has

to do so. this introduces a new tension and they are happy to keep them steady. pie or aa shrinking pod that is not growing. see at falling further? the price for the next six or seven months. is it safe to be saying that, unless we see a big change in the geopolitics and opec cutting back on production? or, if we see the global economy picking up substantially. what do you think of that call for 6-7 months? >> if you look at the fundamentals, it sounds reasonable. i think there is a market fundamentalssed on

and, if you look at the longer-term view, they have a view that they have to accept to decide they have on prices below that level. demand for cheryl oil production. i will see what happens. if there is not a good response with production dropping off for growth dropping off, the strategy did not work. it will take longer than that to take the supply out. >> that is interesting. what are you factoring in? we have spoken to a guest a week or so ago that says that the company's are in a more precarious position in the oil market. when are you factoring in a

reduction in the amounts? >> we are seeing in some indicators and we arty have drilling down significantly. production rises strongly and we are looking at strong growth into january. there are completed wells that are drilled and hooked up. the production may be quicker in the past. they are cutting cost and improving efficiency. >> thank you. thank you very much for joining us. that is all we have for this morning. great to get your thoughts. by --ad of consulting and in dubai. >> on the move is up next.

$1.4 billion in profit. tesco is in focus.

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro, moments away from the start of european trading. warning they say their full-year trading profit will not exceed 1.4 billion pounds. the bad news keeps coming for ceo dave lewis. a move which could possibly parliamentary elections as early as january what the radical left-leaning party ahead in the polls. chinese stocks meet gravity after gaining almost 25% in the

last month alone, the index drops as much as 5%. record trading and i will bet it has moved too high, too fast. later this hour, dealing with the virgins we speak to the blackrock chief investment strategist about 2015. but now you want the market open and manus cranny has got it. the troop of stocks will be down to tesco and retailers. germany imports falling by 3% and european equities will pause as it were. texas intermediate its lowest close since 2009. the journal carries a story that the fed may debate -- move closer to removing the phrase