the nation's minister of economy introduces a new bill to jumpstart the economy after slowing to a virtual halt. futures looking for a little bit of a rebound. euro stoxx 50 futures up 40 points. we could get a little bit of a rebound. manus cranny. yen --y going into the it is performing and delivering, as it does. in moments of reflection, this is the euro down, the yen rising. we have a little bit of a move in dollar-yen. you are seeing probably one of the strongest three-day since we have seen since the middle of august 2013. the reason i'm starting with foreign exchanges because volatility is back in the markets and back in the foreign exchange markets most evidently. it is the most volatile for

exchange market we have seen according to some of the agencies we have watched since august 2013. your tian -- european equity markets are tanking. we lost 2% of their value yesterday. we should keep an eye on the banks. european equity fund's have got a small bounce for them. that will give you a little bit of a flavor. the minor response quite nicely in australia. i think this is a story of do what you do best and if you on a pipeline, sell it. that is what bg are doing. they are selling their apa pipeline in australia. they provide a natural gas project there. they're going to sell it for $5 billion post tax. they're looking at a profit just under $3 billion. when on to read bank of america's recent note on

liquefied national gas. multi-year markets may have an uptick. multiyear bear markets on something they bet significantly on. that is bg. global equity actually making a one-month low. that asian news was very much a theh-up session, mirroring 2.2% drop in europe. that is the bg start. back of the japan story, not necessarily tied together. it is structural change over at rbs. credit fixed income positions to go. 30 representatives will be left. caroline hyde will take you through the story. standard chartered down this morning. they will remain under investigation from the u.s. regulators on site for another three years. there is more new information that they may have been

unlawfully processing dollar transactions. this is a risk. this is a risk for them that falls more issues. i can only talk for so long. you can come back to this. these are the two greek strauch's -- stocks, biggest drops in greek stocks since 1987. the point is whether you believe there is a momentum behind a seeding to power and what that might have an impact to the debt, or something that they will talk about, but nothing once to say it, but what is the statistical possibility of greece leaving europe? back to you, john. >> we are waiting for greek stocks to open, but let's get erday,o that move yest the greek equity market down

12%. we did not see that even when it was on the brink. biggest drop since 1987. our next guest has not just downgrade his look of growth in europe, he is downgraded political leadership at all. he is wayne barrel. the issue of leadership is in focus this morning. not just in greece, but also in france. asre joined live from paris the nation's economy minister is proposing a bill that will jumpstart an economy that has slowed to a virtual halt. what is in this bill and could it signal any meaningful change at all in france? >> i think it is meaningful change, just not a revolution. that is the way to look at it. you have over 100 items in this bill. tweaks,lot of small things like sunday shopping. changes to labor laws, it's

speeding settlements between the disputes between employees and employers. removing the threat of jail to executives and employers who break labor law. it is a lot of little things. it is a step in the right direction. it is something the french economy knees. economists say will help, but it is not a revolution. >> when you talk about change in europe, we also in -- we often talk about resistance. is there likely to be any resistance today? >> i think you will hear a lot talk.itical the mayor of paris said she is not in favor of sunday shopping and the mayors have some sway in this matters. i think the overall bill is likely to go through more or less intact. measures, less talked about on the labor

law-front, for instance, getting through, and that is important. been very much designed to avoid a big confrontation over something symbolic, like the 35 hour work week or the minimum wage, which would have risked bringing people into the streets. a lot of the stuff in this bill is too technical to really get the population excited and protesting. >> joining us live from paris. thank you up very much. bowers, thein wayne ceo at northern trust asset management. he helps manage $900 million in assets. political risk in europe. downgraded your view of political leadership. you guys can talk up change. any confidence they can deliver? >> the french release is a prime example. a lot of things in there are technical, but they are positive and common sense. one would have expected that to

be drawn out and presented 10 years ago, 20 years ago, not now when we have just gone through a significant financial crisis and pretty significant austerity. for leadership perspective, we expect the leaders to step up and push forward and perhaps not talk down the economic view from a european perspective. >> the clock is ticking for france. ek e is a presidential lection in 2017. how do they turn it around in two years? >> is not just restricted to france, the window of opportunity governments in europe have to implement structural reform. draghi has been clear on this, that the ecb can only do so much, and creating the conditions for asset purchases is one thing, but he wants the economy to move into growth mode.

i think the politicians need to step up and take more leadership for and to grow the european a economy. >> it is fueling radical illegal -- political movements. we have not seen a collapse like that since 1987. that can't be right. surely in 2011 we have a debt that was that bad. we did not. what is going on in greece right now the concerns you? >> from an overall greek perspective, we have always been very clear that greece is not the same as peripheral europe. it is in isolation for lots of different reasons. it was a move of greek risk backing to be for referral -- peripheral. toating greek as similar ireland, italy. what happened yesterday was a disconnect from people saying greece is different. it should not be treated like

the rest of the peripheral. it has a significant risk attached. point around far left or far right political votes is correct as well. we see a shift away from center-left, center-right. political opinion and populace folds into the far-left and four-right. it can create issues in implementation. we saw that in sweden a few weeks ago where we had this great coalition that is only lasted a couple of months because they can't get the budget through. they get the vote, but the implication of policy can be difficult. >> let's talk about money and where to push it. you manage a decent chunk of change. where you putting it to work in europe? >> from an overall allocation perspective, we are heavy in u.s. equities. for photo, we have measured risk as well.

from a european perspective, we are looking at core having a prime home. also looking at the transparency of political stability and government policy. some of the fiscal and changes we have seen are careful. some peripherals have done very well simply because they have taken a lot of pain in the early days. we would note with interest from a positioning perspective is that you could have a barbell approach around germany and some of the peripherals to average out the risk while maintaining core liquidity and safe haven. >> i want to go back to u.s. equities. when i look at the treasury market, the treasury market next year is almost a mirror image of the course of the treasury course this year. it turned out to be very, very wrong. nexthe call to be underway year the right one? >> we are over high yield.

there is risk with the income allocation. the other aspect about what happened this year and what we expect next year is the investor around theetting nominal value of fed hikes. the bonsai was pricing in -- another collapse in bond price and an increase in yield, but it did not happen. investors have to take note about the smooth exit of tapering, but the introduction of more qe from the bank of japan. that has to affect risk assets. you could argue that you would not necessarily expect to see a significant drop in price and increasing yield because you will have higher behavior looking for yield to you have a support function there. >> we are going to talk about not the ecb, the people's bank of china after the break. we will talk about chinese investments. chinese data disappoints. almost 3%ai closes up

this morning. we look at the reason behind the rally as "on the move" returns. as we head to the break, here is the picture for you. losses around 2%-3% on the periphery. a rebound today. the dax in frankfurt is up. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i jonathan ferro. ing live on your phone, apple tv, amazon fire tv, and on the television. a little bit of a loss yesterday. you see it on your screen. it was pretty sizable. everyone talking about the economic fundamentals support this rally. this morning, we got a little bit of data. second-largest economy drop for the 33rd month. consumer prices rose at the slowest pay since 2009. tom or lick joins me now. we can talk about whether this will scope a move from the people's bank of china. let's talk about the date of first. what is driving the deflationary pressure?

>> there are two factors at work. the first one is good news for china. china is a big importer of energy. international i will -- international oil prices are down. that is going to give a boost to profit margins. the second factor is more troubling. china is paying the price for its years of excess loan growth and excess investment. the legacy is showing up in overcapacity across the industrial sector. combine that with weak demand in this is why we are seeing the deflation pressure in the banking sector. >> if i was looking at the ,hanghai, if it had ears it is listening to the prospect of another rate cut from the central bank. how does this play into the outlook for monetary policy? >> china's central-bank cut interest rates in november and

they described this as a tactical move. what they said was low-inflation had push the real cost of our wing for businesses up and that is why they had to cut rates. the fall of producer prices in november already more than offsets the impact of that november rate cut. the real cost of borrowing for china's businesses is now higher than was before the cut rates. this focuses attention on what is coming next and raises expectations into 2015. we are going to see more interest rate cuts from the people's bank of china. i think that might be one of the factors underpinning some of the resurgent buying that we saw on the shanghai in composite index today. the other factor is that there are rooms in the market that we have a more direct intervention from the people's bank of china, an injection of liquidity. i think it is that which is driving the turnaround ensures we are seeing today.

joining us from bashan -- tom orlik. now, -- you have been to china recently. you can look of the data and continue one story. you went there. what did you see? >> for a more sanguine understanding of the growth picture. central policy from the government is on a mission to drive out corruption. a cleaner and greener growth story and government policy is having a negative effect on growth. you would expect that. psychologically, the chinese government have an issue around the seven numbers. it wants to produce a 7% growth number. if you go under the covers and scratch at the surface, investors tend to be more sanguine about the growth number at 6.25% or 6.5%.

the employment picture seems to be better than we would expect or anticipate. it tends to be a better and more fuller employment picture. if you think one of the risk of outese government coming with less than 7% growth number, the argument being social unrest, you need the sustainable of a of growth to ensure you have employment. if employment is looking better in terms of rural and urban employment opportunity, perhaps it takes some of the risk off. >> let's talk about the markets. we can talk about old china versus new china. old china is the rate cuts and stimulus. new china is the restructuring. , is thathai comp trading on the belief that old china is the running the economy? we can talk about a stunning decline in greek equity. the move over the chinese stocks in the last month as an something else. >> it has.

we have seen significant volatility. one of the aspects we see from china's point of view is that as they have developed economically, the capital markets have not caught up with that. in terms of the underlying liquidity to the market, the ability to buy and sell stock. those who have opened have gained access to the chinese market and are restricted from selling. that is not good news from a price perspective. we would expect to see more development of the capital market system from chinese authorities to try to match the economic development. all you see when you look at the isolated stock indices is a level of immaturity and under development in terms of price volatility and liquidity. >> very quickly, that is not going to end well. what is your view? >> is not, i don't think. the picture is you tread with

caution in markets like that. there will be an increase in volatility. liquidity is in both ways, investing in and investing out as well. >> when bowers of northern trust asset management. thank you for joining this morning. thanks cutback. reports of jobs at rbs and deutsche bank. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." more job cuts at rbs. here with more on the story is caroline hyde. not a u.k. story this time. a japanese story. they're retrenching in terms of their international presence. they have got to cut one million pounds. this is one way of doing it. it is about japan. they are no longer going to be a prime-rate dealer when it comes to japanese government on -- government bonds. they are cutting 200 jobs. it will be bare-bones left in japan, just 30 people trading fixed income to service their clients. the dealership will no longer be a primary dealer and they will inform the financial services agency as soon as today. next week, the clients will be let known. clearly this is just a global to entrench in global

areas. they are not the only bank not taking money. we have ubs that has been losing money for two years now. it is a tough market. >> not everyone is pulling back from japan. 200 jobs within japan. the market can be quite brutal. that is a dip in the ocean. another small amount of jobs, but interesting. deutsche bank are losing 10 job when it comes to credit default swap trading in london. the area of supreme growth before 2008, before the lehman collapse. trade, assuming what the riskiness is of a certain corporate. deutsche bank had been exiting trading of individual credit swaps for individual names. if you wanted to trade rbs, you

can't do it on an individual basis. you can trade indexes. 10 traders are going to be moved or lose their jobs overall. they are shifting the focus. they are looking at the corporate bond market. there is more activity. they are to derivative indexes as well. they say they are very much focused on credit indexes. that is what the spokesperson said on december 5. clearly there is a trend. regulation has come in. it is more costly to trade credit default swaps because you need more capital to protect yourself, to be able to make the market that much more liquid and safer for those who want to trade. the size of the global derivative market shot 22%. an interesting fact, it is still over $17 trillion, this market. that is bigger than the u.s. economy. >> is still a monster. that is it for the banks. we will talk about the big oil

majors. bp is going to be hit where it hurts. the oileen where with price. how does the oil giant do with crumbling crude prices? ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro in london. 30 minutes into trading day and this is how things are shaping up. ftse 100 up .5%. the stoxx 600 in europe, also a nice little game. a selloff yesterday, down across the board. a rebound today. you could call it a little bit of the bounce. we are up 100 points on the dax. >> let's look at one of the u.k.'s top winners. they are trading up more than 6% at the moment. they rent out equipment to homebuilders and alike who don't

perhaps have the cash to be able to buy their own. rental equipment is doing pretty well. full year results will be ahead of their previous forecast. they are increasing how much they are going to be spending in order to keep growing the business. jeffrey's group saying confidence of the company in the first year of a multi-your supernormal. also saying the company continues to show a significant market share gain. tops the list. co up 4.2%. australia extends a contract worth about one billion pounds. five-year contract with the dip -- the us try in department of immigration and border protection. they will continue to provide onshore immigration detention services. one of the top performers this morning.

on the downside, the worst performer was down sika, down a was 2%. this with a stock is in the throes of a management overhaul of potential chaos. -- $1.8a company billion is what a french company wants to pay for them. what is the stock continue to fall? the main people who want to back the sale is those that are related to the founders' family. it is the family that wants to see the sale go through. the management does not like it at all. the management are challenging it and threatening to quit if the sale does go ahead. inbulent times for sika switzerland, a company off by what more than 1%. >> they are the stocks to watch this morning. chinese factory gates deflation deepens. consumer rises slow at the since 2009.

the shanghai comp dropped on the heels of the data but has made up the losses, closing up nearly 3% on the day. yen gains again against the dollar as stocks fell in japan. 2.25%.kei fell brent resumed losses this morning and deb upi erased gains from the -- wpi erased gains from yesterday. crude could fall to $40 a barrel if solidarity among opec members falters. aspects, theenergy 12-member group may have to call an extraordinary meeting in the first quarter if oil continues to fall. bp is amid historic lows and oil prices. the company has announced a restructuring program. what can we expect from their

meeting? anding us is the single oil gas analyst here at bloomberg. we will get to oil in a minute. let's talk about the day today. bp are going to talk to investors. what can we expect? >> the first thing is how do they see russia? how do they feel about the russian engagement? the south korean pipeline has been counseled, more or less. -- canceled, more or less. 20% for rosner. how will the russian sanctions -- rosner f -- rosneft. the mexican oil spill, what competitions -- consequences will have? the third point, the last thing they said was they intend to $10 billion worth of assets next year. how will this turnout for buybacks? >> bp, the last six months look like this. put oil in their as well.

it would look like this. here is a question. how does this move lower -- has this move lower in the bp stock price make them a takeover target? >> they refuse to cut targets. the oil companies will have to look at how they cope with this new situation. it might be as it sells. there might be more m&a going on. violations are lower. >> -- valuations are lower. >> i look at the brent rice right now, just below $66 for barrel. it has been a stunning move. how long does it have to stay at these levels to transform the environment? >> it is an interesting point. it depends on how long the oil prices going to stay at this level. twotays at $66 or $70 for or three months, this is not going to change ongoing big projects, especially what bp is

doing and other big oil majors. if this level stays like this for another year, where year-and-a-half, we might see some delays and cancellations of big projects. >> when we talk about job cuts at a company like bp, the job cuts of the weekend we are being spoken of lot are likely office jobs. at what point do we start talking about cutting jobs upstream? >> we must not forget the company is a much smaller company than it used to. it does not show in the market cap because the oil price was so i. , bp sold $3000 for 38 of assets in the last -- thousand dollars worth of assets in the last year. the job cuts make a difference in bp's space? they can make a significant difference in cost it does it make a difference to the oil majors? >> they have huge costs just for

getting the oil out of the ground. the personnel costs are a rather small share of their cost race. it is -- cost base. it is not the most important area. >> get out a crystal ball. the oil price. everyone explains the movie have seen an oil so well right now. nobody was shouting about it back in june. when you think about it in the last six months, what is change fundamentally with the supply story? not much. everyone is expecting a rebound next year. could they turn out to be just as wrong as the people were in june? >> the market is divided right now. some people think there will be a rebound. others think oil prices will stay for a long time. i think the risk is on the supply side instead of the demand side. chinese demand, which is the

main demand globally, it is still very strong. the risk of libya falling out again, the risk of the kurds not coming to an agreement about oil exports, this is the higher risk than the demand. >> we have to leave it there. senior oil and gas analyst. still to come, we're going to talk russia. theyentral bank, could raise foreign costs as the collapse of the ruble and western sanctions threaten the economy? let's get a quick check in on the markets for you. make rebound this morning. points,up a sizable 100 almost completely erasing the losses from yesterday. up 1% this morning. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i'm jonathan ferro. let's talk about ukraine. kiev and russian separatists are closer to resuming peace talks. there are hopes to an end of the fighting that has rocked the eastern region for most of the year. president poroshenko spoke out about the need for a lasting cease-fire. is decisivelyt important to have a sustainable cease-fire.

we have a strong guarantee from the russian general that the .ease-fire will take place unfortunately, we have several theccessful attempts when russian and pro-russian rebels have promised to keep the cease-fire. >> joining us is ryan chilcote. i've kind of been desensitized to the word cease-fire over the last year or so, with good reason. >> you heard the ukrainian president being tentative. it is significant in the sense that this could be a positive. you think about this coupled with the fact that russians resume gas supplies to ukraine yesterday, that is good news. it is not a simple relationship. we have another one of these cold war style incidents where you had a couple of f-16s rounding up russian fighter jets in international airspace. that is not good. that is that between the german west wasr who said the

contingent name in shame russia, and you had the russian foreign minister effectively directly criticizing the german chancellor, saying germany should not dictate european policy. that is important because she is seen as a link between people like president obama, david cameron, and putin. if the relationship between her and putin is in at ramones one, that does not vote well. an ace well -- putin is rimonious one, that does not bode well. year, the ruble has been driven lower, and lower. the chart, the ruble is higher, higher. the central bank, it has not change with the ruble did. >> on the other hand, they have raised rates. we don't know what would have happened had they not done that. the ruvell might be in much

worse shape. it is the toolkit left over. they spent a billion dollars on trying to prop up he ruble. they can't control the oil price. they have done other things. we had the finance minister tell russian state companies that they should turn their foreign currency into rubles. t, which bank of america says is tantamount to capital controls. what they can do is raise the rate by 50 basis point and if directly thet at ruble, they can at least try to temper inflation. the big concern for the russian government isn't so much the ruble itself as it is the prospect of rising inflation. you look particularly in the food category of inflation, about 10% a year. that is not good. you think about president putin and his power base. it is elderly pensioners. they need to be able to feed

themselves every month or they will get upset. they are able to do that easily now, but if it continues they will get upset. >> capital controls. >> the russian government continues to say, no. there will be no capital controls. you can measure it. if you look at ruble bonds inside and outside of russia, what you will see is the very same bonds -- the yield moves and lock sink. investors are demanding a premium, about .67% to hold those bonds. why? they are concerned that money make it stuck in russia. their concern about capital controls. i would not say it is a prevailing concern. we see a lot of people moving money out of russia. the central bank keeps changing forecast. people are factoring it in. >> thank you very much.

we want to check in on the open markets this one. one stock on the move this morning's stagecoach. a set bowl -- they set lower fuel prices. whether to take it to public and private transportation. by 4.74%. down a nice rebound. points. 100 is up 25 strong gains seen in the eurozone after the broad equity selloff yesterday. a little bit of a rebound. .9% higher on the dax, 88 points higher as well. i want to take it to the commodity markets. you have seen brent and wpi get crushed over the last few months. it is down 40% down from the highs in june. crude touched a $65 a barrel, down 1%. the vti also down 1%.

under $63 a barrel. in terms of currency, the story has been dollar-week over the last 24 hours. the move has been in dollar-yen. money climbing back into the yen. it is down under .33% right now. the nikkei traded lower. the dollar-yen, nikkei story still going on. we are back in two cooper we'll talk -- we are back in two coo. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." let's bring you up to speed with companies on the move. than $20may need more billion in at your capital by 2019 to meet federal reserve requirements. the central bank laid out boosting surcharges for a big u.s. firms. stanley fischer named jpmorgan in particular, saying the bank will have to come up with more capital. is said to scotland be planning an exit from fixed income trading in japan. the bank may cut more than 200 jobs in the region. is the latest effort to cut assets. standard chartered will be under u.s. watch for three more years because of new potential violations of iran

trade sanctions. the extension means that standard chartered still faces possible prosecution. we want to get back to that oil story. drilling fort is a very -- drilling for it is a very expensive ross is. with the price of crude at its most in five years, some projects may make less sense. hard to find in hard to extract, deep-sea oil is one of the most expensive sources. one of the most expensive is the brazil ultra-deep field. costs of the project are estimated to be $80 billion. hostile weather conditions make drilling in the arctic a huge technical challenge and very costly. rosneft and exxon spent $700 million drilling a well in the

sea. exxon has pulled out because of sanctions. rosneft is hampered by rising debt. helped flood the market and lower crude prices, some operations could still become unviable. drilling in some regions of texas and north dakota is proving on profitable. -- unprofitable. sector, exploration spending could tumble 50% if oil prices stay low according to bernstein research. the ramifications of that could be felt for years to come. let's continue this story. "the pulse" is coming up the top of the hour. guy johnson joins us. bp will present their strategy to investors. they had told investors back in

october that the cap could fall one billion dollars-$2 billion. that meeting >> formally kicked off at 9:00. that meeting kicks off at 9:00. hopefully we will have more details, more flesh on the bone about what exactly they are doing, which projects are viable and not viable. we will get some analysis. oil is one of the key things that will be running to the program. we will deal with bp and figure that one out. we will also be talking to tony tyler a file or to -- of fire to . we will talk to the ceo travel. that theme running pretty clearly through the pulse over two hours. the other theme running through his tech. details from google tech in the u.k. today. we have the web taking place in france. we have a bunch of guests on the

taxes story and tech story. wearable clothing will be one of the skin-type themes we will be discussing. oil and tech. >> i'm not sure that is suitable for your eye, guy. guy.r you or i, let's take you back to the oil story. what is interesting here is that it is not obvious what it means from company to company. stagecoach talking about this public versus private transport having a negative impact. >> more people can drive their cars because it is efficient to do saw. you had a merrill lynch report saying that knocked a bunch of airline stocks that local carriers that seem to be doing well could be the big losers from this because what is going to happen is that the lower price of oil will keep you less efficient operators in business and the higher efficiency

operators will not be reaping the benefits of these guys going to the water. neo.e a320 what was that about? >> it still makes sense. is 70%-20%.g bump it does still make sense. if you can operate efficiently out there, you have that competitive advantage. they can be transferred into prices. you become more competitive. the aircraft's story make sense, but it will delay the whole story. maybe the 2016 guidance from some of the local carriers, it was roaring. they are, but it might not be as easy to achieve. it is a double-edged sword. you thought it would be great for the airline sector, but it is not uniform. >> quick on what it means for the ecb. chief economists talking about oil and what it means for them. oil at 65 is better the for

europe and oil at 120. oil prices may push below -- >> short-term, long-term. short-term expectation start to fall. if those expectations of lower inflation get embedded into your mind, that starts to be a problem for the ecb. further down the road, it will provide an economic kicker but it takes a while for that to be felt while the more immediate pump price story and face affect is much more immediate. it forces inflation below zero. the ecb has got to go big. it is a word situation. in 2015, you could end up with an economic bomb from oil but a bump driven by the fact the ecb has to be more aggressive. next year, you can see some upside may be on some of the expectations for the euro zone economy. >> so many different angles from this week. look at this chart over the next six months. wrench down, bp down, investor day today for bp. look out for the headlines from

that. historic stuff yesterday. the biggest selloff since 1987. that is it for "on the move ." ♪

>> bp under cost pressure. the oil giant just started laying out its plans to analysts. gunning for google. the u.k. lays out its plans to tax multinationals later on today. and, try before you buy. how virtual reality will change the way you plan your holidays. good morning. welcome. you are watching "the pulse." i'm guy johnson.