>> siege in sydney. a café in the business district. tony abbott is appealing for calm. >> this is a very disturbing incident. concernserstand the and the anxieties of the australian people at a time like this. >> japan's prime minister wins a fresh mandate after a record low turnout. slide as oila touches five-year lows. of talks, iseekend the telecom giant about to snap largestf the u.k.'s

wireless carriers? >> welcome back to "countdown." coming up on today's show, and exclusive interview. khailamcorder kospi -- mi talks.ovsky >> there is a 50% chance that putin's empire will be overthrown in 10 years. the likelihood of success in the next decade is about 25%. >> so let's bring you first to our top story from sydney, where hostages are being held in a café in the heart of the city's financial district. five have now escaped from the

scene. t, prime minister tony abbott has just been saying in the last few minutes that the gunman is claiming political motivation. that is the first comment we have had from authorities in australia. what is motivating this siege at the moment? >> absolutely. prime minister abbott did indicate that earlier in the day, that it could have been motivation. the latest we have had is that the gunman has made contact with quite a few media outlets. some of the national television stations and also some of the radio stations. they are all claiming that he has asked for two things. in exchange for one of the hostages, we believe there could be as many as another 25 in that café. he also asked for a call to the

prime minister, tony abbott. we would imagine that it is unlikely that the prime minister is going to negotiate with an alleged terrorist, but that is the latest coming through now. -- at 5:00 p.m., so an hour ago, we did have two more hostages released. they look very terrified exiting that café. about 1.5 hours before that, we had three others escape. there are now five hostages free, but we do not know how many are still inside the café. >> remind us how this began. the is in martin place, central business district in sydney. many banks are nearby. the reserve bank of australia as well. >> absolutely. it is what you might call the heart of sydney's c.b.d. martin place runs about five

and the streets are closed off. there is the reserve bank of australia, which has been in .ockdown today as well there is also a major television network, channel 7. there has been speculation that perhaps this is why that café was targeted. 9:45 mondayfé at morning. a lot of people coming in to get their morning coffee. apparently more than 100 people have been served -- had been served by 9:45. here is how popular this café is with businesspeople and tourists . there is a train station right underground which has been closed all day. it is a major train station for the city area. the fact that channel 7 was broadcasting live as this unfolded meant that, essentially, the hostage-taker had a live tv audience.

the morning show people quickly noticed that something was occurring and they turned the camera lenses to that café before the newsroom was evacuated. there is also a number of banks. it used to be the main financial district until a few years ago, when a lot of the banks moved further down towards the harbor. there are a lot of bars and cafés that are very popular. normally, at this time this afternoon, you would expect to see lots of people milling around martin place, perhaps having a drink or shopping at some of the shops. instead, there is a police cordon and a lot of people are quite terrified about what is occurring in their city. >> thank you very much for joining us with an update. >> some news. euronext, at 7:00 a.m., it that aex futures

trading and trading in the cac 40 have been halted by a market data problem. delayed preopening in all derivatives markets because of problems with market data. we will continue to give you aextes about the cac 40 and futures trading, halted by euronext because of a market data probe -- problem. more breakingt news now. crh.is from selling its concrete for 414 million pounds. capital will get on board in

the deal. saw on that you just .our screen the strategy is very clear. he said it a number of times, which is that a strategic review of the business -- sell those .ieces which are nonproductive 35 countries they are present in. what else can you say? there is a great deal of consolidation going on. let's turn our attention to the story of the weekend. it is about japan. mandatepted to give the for abenomics to continue.

sharp is in tokyo with the latest. what is next from abe in terms of the coalition? the opposition leader has resigned. it is all going to be about structural reform, i take it. >> that is certainly one of the things on his plate. mentioned, whether this is a mandate given the low turnout, you cannot say. abe is promising to push through any structural reforms, the reforms he has been promising for two years. we have to wait and see if he really takes advantage of this vote to push ahead with reforms in agriculture, health care. also, some bigger, weightier issues.

bolstering the nation's defense policy to allow japan to come to the help of its allies. another unpopular policy that abe is pushing is to restart the nation's nuclear power plants. there were shut down after the 2011 tsunami and earthquake triggers, the fukushima disaster. plenty of things are in place for next year. >> we are going to leave it there. this is really a strong mandate. andy sharp in tokyo for us on the abe election. >> on twitter, the big story is the café siege and it is trending, #sydneysiege. the other story, which i forgot about, is sports personality of the year.

a bit of a surprise. there you go. i cannot speak today. menace and i are suffering a little bit. >> very dangerous, this job, this morning. we will be back in two minutes. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown."

picturesatching live from sydney as a siege continues in the city's central business district. five people have escaped. at least one gunman is holding at gunpoint.le armed police have been surrounding the area. this started at 9:45 local time this morning, many hours ago. people escape at around 4:30 london time. 1.5 hours later, we saw another two people escape. this was picked up on tv screens around the world. we heard tony abbott speaking. the prime minister called for calm earlier this morning. this is the central business district in sydney, home of many big bank branches which have had to be closed. some government buildings and the royal bank of australia in that area. >> let's get more on the power

play in this telecom story. paolo, good morning to you. caroline had a wonderful analogy earlier, saying it is like two sets of parents trying to marry daughter. bt, of course, is the suitor. morepresents the attractive asset, but o2 might be more viable going forward. >> it is almost like back to the future for bt. a country it used to own and sold off again for financial reasons. part of a service offering. bt has made some big bets over the years. has been the rising

star over the previous quarters. they have also seen investment in tv with bt sport. the missing piece of the puzzle is mobile. >> and it is those standalone mobile businesses that you fear 3, thee likes of o2 and ones that don't have any of the other core elements. >> that is absolutely correct. and in theeurope u.k., there is a rush towards offering. it is all about broadband, paid tv, and mobile. in the future, it will be more bundles and thinks. this is just the start. moving forward, there will be even bigger bundles of things. >> this is bloomberg -- 2% of the u.k.

households have gone for 4 services. 50% take-up more than one. >> we are really just scratching the surface right now. we just ran a survey on multiple users and it is consistent with that. just less than one third of u.k. households have signed up for all three services. the opportunity is clear to see. years, is that the only progress they have made? >> from our own data, two thirds of households would strongly consider signing up for a bundle of services. on more devices, they are more likely to sign up with one provider. there is a clear direction towards mobile right now. we are at the start of it and we will clearly see more going forward >> one of these two will

have a presence on the high street. thehow does it break thinking process among consumers here in the u.k.? >> that is where we see a major challenge. with they made the change tv as well by moving it to bt sport. within months, they accumulated 5 million customers. bt has changed perceptions and they are much more than just a communications provider. mobile is a huge challenge. around 25 million mobile subs. o2 is similar as well. from abt perspective, they need to manage that brand very carefully. >> what is the regulatory issue around it? >> the o2 deal is much more

easily straightforward. ee would be the biggest mobile operator. o2 the biggest carrier. you remove one of your biggest rivals in the marketplace. view, o2ice point of would be more attractive. ,> for everything that bt does it is going to have an impact on sky. is it just through the sports? is the bidding process starting again? does that push vodafone and sky closer together? >> sky has obviously been very busy as of late. they bought sky germany and sky italy. we believe that that move has made themselves an acquisition target and a potential company to buy them would be vodafone

nude it would build on the existing relationship. , sky does notk. have -- >> what kind premium would you look at in that scenario question mark >> i am not a financial analyst. i cannot really comment on that. here in the u.k., they don't have mobile. vodafone lacks a strong video service. in germany, similar. vodafone have made an aggressive push into broadband video and similarly in italy as well. from a strategic point of view, it would make perfect sense. >> bt, o2, and ee. vodafone, sky. where does that leave virgin unlimited? >> tie everyone up. we also had a prediction that bt

would buy ee for the reasons we outlined. right now, the best option is o2 because of price. >> what does ee do? >> the potential play could be hutchison coming in and buying ee. that would give them a quad play presents. -- presence. out -- ty takes >> you could see talk talk being on its own and differentiating through low-cost packages. >> which she keeps telling us is their standout point. >> the if you look at their numbers, they are doing a pretty good job of that as well. >> thank you so much. good to talk to you this morning. a lot of marriage is going on. the director of media at ccs insights.

>> there is some big news out of euronext. what they are saying is that the cac 40, the french benchmark stock index, and aex futures trading, the dutch benchmark, has been halted by a market data problem. your next announced that at 7:00 london time. it has delayed all derivatives markets until further notice because of problems with market data. just a few minutes ago, the futures opened unexpectedly. markets are closed now and all trades will be canceled. that was unexpected in that market. >> we will tell you how things are unfolding at euronext. >> a quick update on what is happening over on sydney. five hostages have escaped from a café in the central business district. the siege has been ongoing for

you to stay with us on bloomberg route the morning. we will have the next as it develops from australia. ♪

>> let's bring you the latest from sydney now, where hostages are being held by a gunman in the heart of the financial district. by minister tony abbott said the gunmen had political motivations behind these activities. we know that five of the hostages have now escaped.

our reporter on the ground joins us now. bring us up to date with the latest development there. >> unfortunately, there has been another development and it does not sound very good. it is all allegations, but a number of media organizations reported that at martin place, they have spoken to some of those five that have been released and they say that the gunman really wants an issi -- tos flag, that he wants speak with tony abbott, and that he has placed for bombs around the city, two in the café, and two around the city. those are the latest allegations. we still do not know how many people are in the café. 30, becauseund normally there is about 10 staff and they -- they're probably would have been 30-40 patrons in the café at 9:45 this morning.

certainly, those claims that there could be bombs around the city are very frightening, very disturbing. and the fact that he wants an for one ofn exchange the hostages. of course, owning an isis flag is a legal in australia. number of people are trying to get one in case they can do these change for one of the hostages. >> those comments coming through unconfirmed bya, bloomberg this morning to get your update on the ground. we will bring her back later in the program and continue to monitor the developments as they take place in sydney. >> coming up, an exclusive interview. one of vladimir putin's staunchest critics talks about the chances of his -- of him being ousted from power in the

next decade. ♪ ♪

make the best entertainment part of your holidays. catch all the hottest handpicked titles on the winter watchlist, only with xfinity from comcast. "countdown" >> you are watching -- >> you are watching "countdown" this monday morning. let's see how the foreign exchange markets are doing. aussie dollar down 11% since the february. more news from sydney in terms of the development of that story. the aussie dollar hit a 4-year

low earlier in trading. -- joe hockey -- h awkey saying you are seeing the biggest slump in years. for $30the estimate was billion. bloomberg has a poll of foreign exchange analysts and where they think the aussie dollar will go to. stevens, the central bank governor, says $.75 is preferable to $.85. abe's re-accession to power. in equity markets, almost $2 trillion wiped off globally, including the start of play today. ,en doing as it normally does acting as a balance to declining

equity markets. keep an eye on the indonesian rupee. looking at the lowest level since 1998. investors pulled out $2.5 billion from u.s. exchange traded funds and emerging markets. the central bank said to be overlooking the markets. edwards in london. these are bloomberg's top headlines. armed police are surrounding a café in the business turkish -- business district of sydney, where a man is holding hostages. the black standard flag has been used as a symbol but islamic extremists. place, australia's prime abbott, says the gun man is claiming to be politically motivated. >> this is very disturbing. i can understand the concerns and anxieties of the american

people at it -- the australian people at a time like this. our thoughts and prayers, above all, go out to the individuals who are caught up in this. >> the united arab emirates energy minister has told will not that opec come out, even if oil falls barrel.0 a he said the organization will wait three months before considering an emergency meeting. opec has left its output target unchanged. newcomers come to the market. thereeed to realize that are fundamentals in this market that everyone needs to respect and the market is stronger than all of us. it will stabilize. >> japan's prime minister, shinzo abe, has gotten a fresh

mandate from voters in a snap election, albeit with the lowest turnout in the postwar era. his coalition won more than two thirds of the 475 seats in the lower house. tackling the economy is his top priority. the nikkei index traded lower on falling oil prices. 7:34 here in london. let's get to our top story could hostages are being held in a café in the heart of sydney's financial district read we are joined by david, senior elective at the melbourne school of government. give us your thoughts on what is happening in sydney. that, in september, the government raised the terrorism alert in australia. were they fearful that something of this nature was going to happen? yes, something very much like what we are seeing today. there was an attack that was planned for martin place, the financial district. individuals who affiliated

themselves with the islamic state planned to take a random passerby off the street and behead them. that, there has been legislation by the government to increase mounter -- monitoring, counterterrorism regulation. people cannot go to iraq or syria without some justification for doing so. >> what do you make of the motivations behind this siege? we heard tony abbott talk about the political motivations. we saw the black flag with white arabic writing. what is your best assessment of what the threat is that is being dealt with here? >> in the last few months, you are seeing in australia crowd sourced terror. individuals who express some allegiance with the islamic state but who have probably never been in direct contact with it. was in melbourne, a police

-- a teenager was questioned by police for posing with a black flag. this man looks like he is in his 40's. he has requested an official islamic state flag. it seems like this is very much do-it-yourself and that is hard to control. there is no chatter to monitor. >> in your experience, what is the process from here? what happens now? we have seen five of the hostages and escaping from the scene. how did that change things as they develop? things,ple of obviously. the fact that he is now talking to police. concerned thate if he was not there to negotiate, he would only be

there for nefarious purposes. the entire point of terrorism is to force people to pay attention to some political image. perhaps they can talk him out. >> is it your assessment that this is likely to be a lone wolf and not some of you with more formal connections to another network? >> it is very difficult to tell. what you have seen in australia and going back to the olympics in 2000, a number of plots, most of them within sydney. particularly among the lebanese-australian community. a lot of people helped people go over to syria. now you see people who they have never met, so this could be

someone who wanted 15 minutes of fame or he thought it was a noble cause. >> earlier today, there were reports of other incidents around sydney. is it clear whether any of this areinked, whether there other episodes being investigated by police at this time? or is the entire focus on the marketplace -- on martin place at this point? >> there was an arrest of someone several hours ago by that person has been let go. all their focusing attention on the immediate central business district of sydney. >> thank you very much for joining us today. david mallette at the melbourne school of government. home whereoss the

the -- russia's most famous dissident is planning another russian revolution. ryan chilcote caught up with mikhail khodorkovsky. he was once one of russia's richest while spending a decade in prison. two -- a forecasting a coup. >> i believe that the problem with prudent will come -- with putin will come from within his own entourage. it could be one person, 10 people, i do not know. i cannot forecast that and i do not want to guess. i can say that it would be better for my country if the issue is resolved that way. an through the framework of clashes in the streets. coup has a lote less blood. >> how likely is a coup?

>> right now, president putin has nothing but unwavering support from his inner circle. it does not look like there could be anything like that. and what -- and why would there be anything but unwavering support? you look at his personal weightings -- ratings, which have skyrocketed on the back of ukraine. russia really likes what the president has done up until now in ukraine. having said that, mikhail khodorkovsky says that the euphoria will pass. the problems will remain. he also reminds that, in 1917, who would have thought a few localized bread riots in st. petersburg would lead to the russian revolution. >> on your thought for just a moment. we are going to go back to sydney, where police are giving a briefing on the siege that is taking place on the lindt café in the central business district. the -- the chief of commissioner of the new south

wales police. >> the contact that we have will be ongoing and it will be based on our best assessments on how to get those people out safely. >> some of the hostages have been talking about -- >> are they trying to use the media? >> i think there are probably a number of mediums being used at the moment, but we have to be very careful not to completely overreact at this time, because it is still ongoing. it is important to reiterate that we are aware of that. we are monitoring it and using that as part of our strategy. it is not something that i can confirm at the moment and not particularly useful to confirm potential numbers. so people who we might be dealing with who are concerned

that a friend or a relative or a loved one might be in that set up oure have public information number. >> can you tell us how many are inside? >> that is a technical, operational imperative. >> why can't you tell us? >> at this point, everything has to be about the safety of the people in the location. it is important that we do not confirm at this point. >> could you explain more about the task force and how many times it has been used? >> the pioneer is a standing arrangement, a term that relates to our command and control arrangement. when we do have a major incident such as this, we set up our police operations center so we have a commander in place, forward command, and other

management protocol so that we are ensuring that we have the best police response. intelligence, logistics, all resources, and it also includes long-term planning. it is basically a standing arrangement in terms of response. we are going to make sure we have the best control and command arrangement under way. again, i do not want to speculate, but we are in contact . we will continue and we will continue. the aim is a peaceful resolution. >> can you confirm that this man has threatened that there are bombs in places around the city.

can the public feel safe? >> we have a large police response in place as part of this operation. .e have our police out they are very visible. we have our police transport command as well as reminding the public to be vigilant and to be aware and police are also vigilant and aware in making sure that if there are any ,uspicious packages or vehicles i think it is important for me to reiterate that we have this situation contained to one area at the moment. we are responding to other pieces of information and we will continue to. but our response is in relation to the incident in martin place. >> can you tell us more about the gunman? >> thank you. thank you very much.

>> that was the deputy police commissioner catherine burns speaking to journalists in sydney in australia. declining to say whether hostages escaped or were released, declining to comment on the number of hostages who remain inside. and saying that the situation is contained to one area. that is what we are being told. just to go back to ryan go back to mikhail khodorkovsky. we were talking about his predictions for the ultimate downfall of putin. he said it would probably be the coup route rather than an election route. what kind of change is likely? >> he think there is a 1 in 2 chance that president putin will

be pushed out or step down in the next decade. said there is a 25% chance that the result is better in russia. his idea is russia needs a provisional government, a temporary government that would come into power for 2-3 years and effectively undo everything he says president putin has done to establish this sort of authoritarian regime, after which you would then have direct elections and everyone who was in that provisional government -- and by the way, he said he would be happy to lead that provisional government -- would step down. nonetheless -- >> thank you very much. coming up, how likely is a venezuela default? ♪

>> welcome back. time for today's hot shot. how likely is a venezuela default? country's foreign reserve? the government and its $21e-owned oil company owe million on bonds by 2016. that is equal to 100% of reserves. this chart shows the concern that is out there. the top chart is the cost to over thenezuelan debt

next 12 months. it surged on friday. that is a record since the beginning of september. .he cost has jumped by 800% in december alone, the cost has more than doubled. a 65%e cost implies probability of default by december next year. that, swap prices show a 94% chance of a default by 2019. this is a bond insurance for 2019. a chart is the cost to insure over -- venezuelan debt the next five years it also at a record high. the cost has also more than doubled this month. thatese charts explaining think as and traders default is almost certain.

it is most likely to happen in one year. keep an eye on credit default swaps. >> that is certainly one to digest, mark. shinzo abe gambled his political future. he called snapped an early election and it paid off. the prime minister secured a victory and another chance for his economic policies to work. let's bring in our next guest on this conversation. we are joined by nick jupiter and assignment in great to have you with us this morning. he has another plan. it has not really worked, has it, abenomics? >> i think that is fair. the big thing that happened in japan is they turned deflation into inflation. that has run a lot of money on it. change but more

needs to be done. ?> what can he now do now he has a stronger mandate if that is how you define what happened over the weekend. what can he do now that he could not do before? >> the first one that we thought would happen earlier is tpp reform. it is the free trade between some of the asian nations. one would hope now that he has , social mandate security reform not being talked about too much. term. has a 3 or 4-year a similarhe had majority a few years ago. he has the same vested interest. the drugmakers, the utilities -- how does he overcome japan's vested interest in this cycle? powern he first got into

two years ago, he pushed through on arrow 1 and arrow 2. with a new mandate, he is hoping to push through more reform on arrow 3. we look forward to seeing what he does in the first stage of the new parliament going into 2015. >> from an asset managers point yeniew, the decline of the during his term, 70% rise in stocks. bang for your buck again? maybe that is why i'm looking skeptically at the scenario. talk me through why we should be bullish. >> i do not think we will see the same as the first term. we will not see the yen fall to the same extent as it has already. we will not see a change in the bank of japan course.

can he get this domestic reform through? mandate.s this new labor reform, maybe immigration. i think that is unlikely. he can now do that pretty straight away. >> and the government pension fund is changing. we saw this push to get the equities target. domestic equities have gone up 25%.12% to we have seen strong performance in the topix. awaiting the reform agenda, the specifics around the government-funded pension fund. >> i do not think it will change from 25%. there are going to be ongoing buyers in the market. the bank of japan with their new qe policy. one story that has escaped a lot of people in japan is the

corporate reform that is going on. we are seeing substantial share buybacks going on. it looks like they will be 1.5% of the free float in japan this year. do you worry about the debt burden? yen -- q quadrille yen uadrillion yen? is that one too many zeros? a sales tax hike might be needed down the line -- >> i think you are right. ,y doing that, the one aspect he is not going to balance what he said he was going to do. that is why we might see some social security reform early in his administration. he has to do something to balance the books. and he is trying to prove the structural deficit. >> we are going to have to leave

it there. simon from jupiter asset management. >> "on the move" is up next. they will continue to bring you updates on the hostage situation in sydney throughout this morning. it started at 9:45 local time. ♪

." welcome to "on the move i'm jonathan ferro in london. welcome back to work. the worst week for european stocks since 2011. ugly. sydney siege. the armed standoff between police and a gun man in the city's financial district enters its 10th hour. we will bring you all the latest on the story as that develops. abe's election landslide. shinzo abe celebrates as the ruling coalition gains more than two thirds of the seats in the lower. the lowest turnout in the postwar era does show signs of disillusionment.

oil at $60 a barrel. the united arab emirates says opec won't cut output even if prices plummet to $40. the stare down between opec and shale production continues. i'm looking at futures markets. euro stoxx future is pretty much dead flat. dax futures, about 0.1% higher. let's get straight to the market open. >> we have had technical issues in terms of futures markets in europe, so that has discombobulated some of the market opens. you are looking lower in london, down 0.4%. global equities lost $1.2 trillion in value. that momentum continues this morning. volatility rose. yields on treasuries also rose.