>> open under pressure. -- put in under pressure. the ruble and relations with the west on the agenda. >> patience is the new keyword at the fed. janet signals rates are unlikely to go up before april. equity markets in the u.s. and asia rise. >> half a century of hostility havana.the u.s. and >> sony canceling their big christmas release, "the interview." they are pinning the hack attack firmly on north korea.

hello. welcome to "countdown." all.y good morning to you vladimir putin addressing russia today amid the collapse of its currency and a deepening economic crisis. >> the ruble has rallied since hitting its lowest ever after the central bank step in to say it will help companies meet their debt obligations and foreign currencies. theeaders weighing in on ruble issue. the russian crisis is on the agenda. obama. president barack will not be helping putin's case either. he is said to sign a bill pushing further sanctions on the russian economy. >> what are his options as he heads onto the world stage this morning? bloomberg's ryan chilcote reports. extraordinaryn

several days for russians. since vladimir putin last weighed in on the currency, the ruble has been in freefall down at one point a full 30% since he last spoke. far from hiding, this commercial advertising putin's annual has conference suggests the russian president is ready to take the ruble and the world on. expect a robust defense of syria, everyation thed crisis, and of course crisis. we have seen him with the record 1000 journalists attending the press conference last year and per usual, vladimir putin answered the questions for a full four hours. this year, he's unlikely to do some. standby. a vladimir the defender.

wellis was well billed, anticipated. what i the big changes if at all? of sort of deflating people's expectations, i don't think we will get any big policy changes. it's not really his style to go in front of 1000 journalists and announce big policy initiatives. i think we will get some anti-western rhetoric and a bit of blaming this currency crisis on the sanctions. to a certain extent, that would be fair. that's not the only thing going on here. as the economy minister said, it's a perfect storm of three big problem's. own, structural, geopolitical, and the falling price of oil. i think we will get some good theater. four ours is a long time for anyone to speak. who knows? >> we've had incredible moves in

markets, not least of which what's happened to the ruble. what are the prospects of capital controls now? an interesting one. the government says there will not be any capital controls, for what it's worth. they would say that because you would not want to forecast that in advance. who knows? meeting with the head of the central bank, his team, and exporters effectively encouraging to convert their currency from dollars when they sell their oil, whatever it might be, into rubles as quickly as possible and to do it in a synchronized fashion, that is a form of capital control. we'd go to the bank machine and you cannot get dollars out, that might cause more panic than it's actually work.

is pretty interesting. you can engage the level of concern when it comes to capital control, when you look at shares of companies listed in moscow and out of moscow. shares fromat these yesterday and you can see that the premium investors are prepared to pay for own london-listed shares, the premium percentage they are willing to pay over the price of the shares in moscow for shares in the very same company has been subsiding. oft shows us the month december. the higher you are on the chart, the more concerned people are about capital controls which is why they would be willing to pay more for the same shares in london. people are a bit more less concerned. >> although it might be in

brussels. at the eu meeting, they will discuss russia. they will discuss the financial turmoil but not financial aid. it's interesting the difference between this one and 1998. the world gave russia $20 billion but they had about $11 billion in reserves. they will also discuss ukraine. commission say ukraine needs $15 billion new aid on top of the $17 billion they already gave ukraine. same time,ly, at the president obama has a bill in front of him he says he will sign authorizing new sanctions against russia. it's a bit of a hot potato because the russians have already said they will retaliate . it would involve sending russian arms the

exporter and this is the big companiesnational working with energy companies. even still, the russians see it as a hostile move. the penny has not dropped, i guess is one way of putting it. >> or the ruble. brian, thank you. ryan chilcote. we will be watching the extensive coverage of vladimir putin's speech from 9 a.m. this morning london time here on bloomberg. >> there's been a change of language from the federal reserve. the new keyword is patience. the chair of the federal reserve has indicated she's in no hurry to raise interest rates. janet yellen says the fed is unlikely to move before the end of april. and so didrose equity markets.

yellen striking a note of caution when it comes to u.s. jobs. >> there is room for further improvement with too many people who want jobs being unable to find them, too many working part-time but would prefer who-time work, too many have given up searching for a job but would likely do so if the labor market were stronger. >> elsewhere in washington, history being made, ending half a deck -- half a century of hostility. beginning to normalize relations with havana. iny will open an embassy lifting travel and trade which prohibits the import of cuban cigars. it's a one-party state but so is china and vietnam. we are in a position to have over the course

of events when we have an active ambassador there, people to people exchanges. >> hello, north korea. we are preparing for this interview. i particularly enjoyed the miley cyrus episode. very deep. >> a clip from the movie "the interview." that might be as much as you see because sony has told the christmas day release. caroline high-end is here with sony's very own hacking drama. this is a fascinating story that continues to unfold. madee day, a film will be about the making of this film. you could not make this up. sony pictures entertainment saying it will not be unveiling what was meant to be a comedy. a plot tod to involve

didssinate kim jong-un who not find this remotely funny. having to pull the showing of the seth rogen comedy, what has happened is it escalated. it's part cyberattacks bringing down computers but since then, terror attacks have become even .ore vehement they're calling themselves guardians of peace and they you should remember the 11th of september. we recommend you keep your thoughts separate unsurprisingly. there are still cinema owners with absolute fears as well. bey said they will not showing the film. sony themselves have come out saying they have decided not to move forward with a planned

december 25 release. there's the safety of the employees and the weirder goers. leaks in terms of angelina jolie, aliases, one thing after another. >> back in the summer, sony entertainment got the idea that north korea were not pleased him a do things to try to prevent distribution. it was not until november that suddenly we get this brutal crippled thethat entire sony pictures computer system that got drip fed the leaking of details about salaries. unbelievable statistics about women being paid far less and men. angelina jolie being abused in e-mail conversations being called a spoiled brat. >> i think you're being very generous. . >> do got completely consumed

in. i spent looking at gawker and some of the rings being spelled out. snapchat, deals being done that suddenly become unveiled in public knowledge because of relationships at sony entertainment. youcan jesse december 17 -- can just see december 17 having to pull out exactly. >> what happens now with the u.s. government? do they have a role to play in all of this? >> we have been reporting for a long time that north korea was likely to be behind it. sony's own investigation must thought to have been linked groupans of peace to a that has previously done attacks on south korea and some of their banks.

announce as soon as today that north korea is officially behind the cyberattacks according to a person briefed on the fbi probe. don't really know how to react. how do you retaliate when you -- cannot point pinpoint? is already isolated economically. what weapons do we really have against them? the responsibility has been put on them. now how much responsibility does the u.s. have to protect their own companies from this? >> a little bit of breaking news . the board proposes peter foster as the new chairman. voser is to become the new chairman over at abb. another willg and

not stand again for election there over again. >> peter voser bringing key knowledge of the markets as well as an excellent track record as a leader in global organizations. >> a new chief executive and a new finance chief. the world's biggest maker of power grids. follow us on twitter and join the conversation. let us know what you think of the shows. manus is back. @markbartontv @annaedwardsnews. >> fed, greece, and more. soonerguest thinks the political stability is restored in greece, the better. ♪

>> janet yellen signaling she's in no hurry to raise interest rates and borrowing costs staying lower for longer. let's bring in our guest for this conversation. x strategy at bank

of america merrill lynch. a couple of commentators. they called the fed statement , do you think this is a fair summary of yesterday's events? thehe message i get from fed yesterday as despite what happened in the markets in the last month, they are continuing to prepare the markets for the fed rate hike next year. many went into the meeting thinking that the fed could continue to be on the side of caution and stop sending concerned about the global of volatility, the crisis in russia. some of the emerging markets at risk but the drop in inflation expectation including in the u.s. focusing on the resilience of

u.s. and preparing the market for the first rate hike. place the middle of next year, a little bit later. it will be dated dependent. how quickly will they go? year, one and a .uarter, one and a half they have listened to some of the things on the market. they have changed their range. >> that's true. up until now, they were ignoring the plot saying it does not matter. now it matters because they will start hiking rates. point, we have to converge with the market expectations. perhaps this was the meeting of this process.

>> on one hand the message got more hawkish but the doves got more dovish? the fact that we see equities rising, is that because they are theassuming, good news on economy is good news and we can take a rate rise or are equity investors saying they are in no hurry and it's good? >> clearly, the fed will continue taking it's time. they're looking at the data and they will prefer to hike later than two early. from their point of view, this was risk on. they may not hike rates on all next year. the message that the fed will stay the course and everyone will depend on the u.s. data. of genos vamvakidis, head 10 fx strategy. we will talk russia and more. stay with us. ♪

>> thanos vamvakidis, head of g10 fx strategy for bank of america merrill lynch. .hat a couple of days the ruble is down to 60. what an incredible couple days of volatility. russia has taken various measures to stem the ruble

decline. hasn't managed to stem the decline for now? -- has it managed? still have substantial reserves, more than $400 billion. the way i would approach the crisis, because that is what we have here, we have to see what the triggers are. we have to see what led to the bone before -- boom before the crisis. ofsident putin is a source stability and now he is a source of instability. now oil prices are collapsing. no matter what the domestic authorities do, they cannot change these two factors. from this point of view, i will still be bearish on russia

unless they change with respect to u.k. >> very obvious capital controls or could they be more subtle? >> i think they will start gradually. further intervention might be the first line of defense. if the situation continues, it could go to an extreme. thanos, when we talk about them is the central bank made yesterday, it strikes me as being something for the markets to delinquent. using the russian ruble for assets, don't worry. that sort of the problem we had during the financial crunch down of 2007 and 2008. basically don't worry about any of the default risk that you have? that's lunacy. they have an enforceable job.

it's not an issue of economic fundamentals here. to a large extent it is because of politics and development. such measures might work in the short-term term but they have a lot of side effects. even if we see interventions, the way we approach this would see some measures that could support into the short term. >> 160 votes in greece for the presidential nominee are not enough. the second vote will take place december 23. wilson morris get his candidate through or not -- will samaris get his candidate through? >> what will help votes in greece is if the government promises early elections and to reform the constitution. >> thanos vamvakidis, head of

g10 fx strategy at bank of america merrill lynch, thank you. greece moving one step closer to early elections. you are looking at a live shot of athens. stay with us on "countdown." ♪

>> you are watching "countdown." time to check in on the foreign exchange markets of the federal reserve has delivered a change in language. what's going on? the dollar rose to within 1/10 of 1%. we are trading up over the past few days. the bank of new zealand says long-held.e they are in no hurry to move

rates. is the otherhange aspects of the minutes that we have, the velocity in terms of the index of where they see them going by the end of 2015, lower than the market. the median estimate for where the dollar index will be, a little bit higher than here at 94. have all emerging markets reacted? perhaps for the same amount of tanks? -- amount of angst? no, changing the wording from considerable time to patients which means no movement until the first quarter gives everyone a little bit more time and foreign exchange markets have a little bit of a spike. the dollar rupee moved and the indonesian rupee coming off levels you have not seen since 1998, dollar down in the rupee

up by 0.7%. the dollar coming around back to flat. not all bad news but they weren't all created equal. edwards and these are the bloomberg top headlines. vladimir putin getting ready to give his press conference in the midst of the crisis. the economy and international affairs will be key topics at the conference. halfuble has lost about its value. the chair of the u.s. federal reserve has indicated she's in no hurry to raise interest rates. the fed is unlikely to move before the end of april. the language from the fed is important. the central bank will be " patient" on the timing of the first rate increase. president obama ending half a century of hostility between the u.s. and cuba announcing washington will begin normalizing relations with havana. the u.s. will open an embassy

.nd left some travel sony has canceled plans to release its new movie "the interview." it was due to open christmas day. it prompted an attack on its computers by a hacking group. north korea is behind the cyber attack according to a person briefed on the investigation. greece has moved a step closer to early elections. prime minister and taunus -- samaras says there will be another vote december 23 followed by another six days later. if he fails on the third attempt, elections will be held. let's go to our man in athens, elliott gotkine. good morning to you. aras getting well short of

the 200 he needed only getting 160. good morning to you, mark. it's hard to see how it could have been much worse for prime minister samaras. baseline support is 155, the number of lawmakers that are in his governing, lycian including his new democracy party. easily managed to add an .dditional five to that tally no one expected him to win or come even close to the 20 votes. what they will be watching for is how close within striking distance would he be to the 180 he will man not in the second round on december 23 but in the withinnd crucial -- striking distance would he be to the 180 number he would meet not

in the second round but in the third. authoring things perhaps such as an early general election anyway. wing day could be doing is trying to burnish their independent credentials to show that they are not happy being backed into a corner. when push comes to seven-day -- when push comes to shove, they might lose their jobs and i could concentrate minds and help them vote in favor of prime minister samaras'candidate for president. markets do not seem to unnerved by the vote. only thing still trading at that time was the euro which barely budged. we are half an hour away from getting bond prices for the greek bond and also the stock market as well. we saw the dramatic inclines when we had the shocking announcement about the presidential elections to be

brought forward. barring any surprises or shocks between now and december 29, imagining investors could be waiting to see what happens on december 29 because if the presidential candidate does not get the vote, then there would be a dissolution of parliament and general elections held. >> elliott gotkine, thanks. another update from him next hour. >> let's shift gears. one week until christmas. i have not personally started to shop yet. its top of the earnings season for them or at least their kind of business, photo box group ceo stan laurel. report people like me who have not sent out their christmas cards, who have not personalized christmas, you are nirvana. moon pig, photo box. we started a great christmas

season so far and you still have time to order your cards. is this christmas bigger, better, wealthier? >> it feels very strong particularly in the u.k., i will say. we are growing significant double digits. we have dispatched something like 300 80,000 orders a few days ago, so it's definitely moving. >> the genius of the company might be in its advertising, stan. >> don't sing it. >> i did during the break. >> the fact that we all know the advert. i've never used your service but i'm very aware of the advert and i'm sure everyone here in the u.k. is. who created it? how successful has the advert been for you, do you think? has only been successful

because of the service on the back of it was innovative and was great quality. good advertising works in conjunction with a brilliant service. .> it borders on the annoying memorable, bordering on the annoying. you will never forget it. that's the genius. [laughter] its love it or hate it. it has established a brand come a a connection. we are about personal product, and fun product in the jingle goes along with it. >> we have all of the other businesses on the screen. why not roll them into one? all different. photo box is about making product and sharing them. it's making people feel special about that.

we have a few other brands for sticky9 is, and about social printing. each has a specificity. we are clearly engaged in a multi brand strategy but always about personal product. >> your private equity-backed. let's get to the bloomberg-type questions. when will you list? date for that. we recently announced we took some dead to do an acquisition in spain to consolidate the market. right now we are doing that in private hands. >> 2015? possible. we will continue our consolidation first. it's an option we will consider to do so, but right now we are getting external financing to support growth. >> is there a natural crossover between the customers who come to you at moonpig and photobox? you capture the client and one of the silos.

how much transaction do they do across the platform? >> there is some but less than you might guess. the approach of the consumer when they are getting on our side, downloading our app is very different than when they are planning to send a card or planning to do something with their memories. it's quite a different approach. we do some cross marketing but we try to limit. and theme about mobile developments there. around 50% of your activity on moonpig is about mobile. how quick is that moving across? >> is the fastest growing area. >> i feel like i want the biggest screen perhaps. app as well, ipad of course. more than 40%, between 40% and 45% are mobile-based. continuing to grow 10 or 15

points a year and that's a big part of our growth. we want to simplify. it's more convenient for our customers. >> let's talk popular product. you sell so many items. what are the big sellers over christmas? give us an idea of how many are producing and selling. >> cars are in the millions. for six times. canvases at the moment are booming in could fill the national gallery five times over in a single day. >> just over christmas? we would fill day the national gallery five times over. that's about 11,000-12,000 canvases. >> that's a lot of business. and a lot of mugs. >> we're are approaching a time with amazon many were

forecasting the death of the bookshelf. it's very evident. is the demise of the card shop almost upon us as well? in the u.k.share and france is 25%. be10 or 20 years, will there no more card shops left here in europe? will it be purely businesses like yourself online? we are certainly convinced the secular trend toward online will continue and accelerate, if anything. cars are still a last-minute tendency to go around the corner for a party this afternoon. we don't think it is necessarily the death of retail. we think we are complementary. we do personalize product. it will take a growing portion of the market but it does not have to take the whole market. there is still somewhere to go. >> stan laurent, ceo of photo box group. >> join the conversation on

twitter. we are all there. we have gone into overdrive because mark barton has the 1000y breached level on twitter. he puts me to shame in terms of numbers. >> patience. benjamin franklin. adhere to should that. plummeting oil prices and the ruble in freefall. it's not an ideal backdrop for vladimir putin to take to the podium today for his annual press conference but our next guest says the worst is will to come for russia. stay tuned for that. ♪

>> i see no exit strategy for him. he is there for life. he cannot leave the kremlin. >> you don't see him gone? and how nobody knows including him. what is important for us is to convey the message to his inner circle, the russian ruling elite that putin is the problem. there is no solution to be found while he's there. champion world chess

garry kasparov saying in his view vladimir putin is the problem for russia. putin heads to the world stage in his annual press conference today. what can you say to his country as they fall deeper into economic crisis and his currency collapses? our next guest is professor of economics at the institute or political study and he joins us now live from paris. good morning. thank you for joining us today on bloomberg. >> thank you for inviting me. hass you know, the ruble been in freefall but it did rise 12% yesterday, the most since 1998. do you think russia has managed to stabilize the ruble? we are reassured by the central bank and government statement that they will look at the banking system and start lending in hard currency.

the is what is assuring markets. a permanent solution is still not found. the details of this solution package are still not disclosed. maybe some details will be unveiled today. to bet do you expect unveiled today, professor? is relatively russian banking corporate over the next few years have to pay something like $3 billion of external that. this is what the central bank has to do. they have to somehow reassure the banks and the corporate that they will be able to refinance or pay this debt somehow. given the sanctions, it's actually a huge problem. maybe mr. putin will talk about his new direction policy that will lead to removing the sanctions or maybe the central tok will talk about the way

use its own reserves to refinance this debt over the next couple of years. on top of that, maybe mr. putin will talk about more realistic assumptions for the budget. currently, russia lives with a budget which is based on extremely unrealistic assumptions like 2% growth than $100 per barrel oil. >> is the whole putin economic system built around high oil prices and a strong ruble, is it collapsing around him? it is facing a very difficult time. it is actually the most important challenge of the last 15 years. the crisis of 2008 and 2009 was much easier compared to what's going on today. the budget at that time was based on much lower oil price and also this time it is reinforced by the sanctions.

if not for the sanctions, the problems would be manageable. we don't see a way out in the next two or three years. reserves toough reassure the markets and maintain financial stability except for mistakes and have been made in recent weeks. and they still might be made in the coming weeks, but if you behave rationally, there are enough reserves to maintain but probably not be on the next two or three years so we will see what mr. putin says today. i would remind you that in a similar press conference one year ago, he did make a major decision releasing a man who spent 10 years in jail before that. actually here is something unusual, unexpected, even big today. iev, our colleague spoke to someone last week who that putinhilcote

will not last through the next decade and he's pinning his led by putin's inner circle because he thinks elections will not bring about a change in power. what is your assumption on how long putin could last? how he could be, if you think he will be, in the end. i think it is very hard to predict how the positional change in the world but with the place, i think 10 years is a very long time for this regime. two or three years down the road, this will face major risks. a lot may happen in just two or

three years. how this will change, it's very hard to predict. can change in very different ways. , youy be a coup, election never know. this regime as you rightly said is based on a very different economic model. it can no longer afford this economic model today. popular.is very his popularity over 80%. our what -- at what juncture -- are you suggesting it's going to take another two or three years before the population turns against him? it's also not clear. the so-called support is based on polls that are conducted in the presence of total propaganda and censorship. repercussion and censorship even on the internet has been reinforced in recent months and

weeks. we should not really pay too much attention to those numbers and approval ratings. we may actually see a remake winning -- air reawakening. fromofessor sergei guriev the political institute in paris, thank you for joining us today. >> we will have extended coverage of russian president vladimir putin's speech from 9:00 a.m. this morning in london right here on bloomberg. ♪

>> just over an hour until the start of the european trading day. meanwhile have a snap at the paper. kicking it off with the times. this is on the back of the news that obama will restart some kind of discussion with cuba. fidel castro and che guevara, one of those iconic photographs. telegraph, thehe bookmakers suspended betting on the queen announcing her abdication in this years christmas and annual christmas day broadcast after an unusual rash of wages sending alarm

bells ringing. they said it was just not true. many others say it's not true. we will be back in a few minutes . more on the fed when we return. ♪

> putin under pressure. the ruble and relations with the west will be on the agenda. >> janet yellen signals rates are unable -- unlikely to go up. cold.a comes in from the cancels the christmas release. the fbi said to plan to blame putly on north korea --

blame firmly on north korea. i mark to countdown, barton. >> i am manus cranny. >> vladimir putin identifies russia a midi collapse of their currency -- amid a collapse of the currency. the central bank stepped in to say they will help companies meet their debt obligations and foreign companies. an euisters convene at summit today. rush upon crisis is on the agenda. be helpinga will not the case either. he is set to sign a bill putting further sanctions on the economy. >> what are vladimir putin's options? ryan chilcote reports. >> it has been an extraordinary

several days for russians permit since -- russians. the ruble has been in freefall, down a full 30%. far from hiding, the commercial on russian tv suggests the russian president is going to take the ruble in the world on. expect a robust defense of crimea's annexation and his views on the turmoil in the ukraine, syria, just about every world crisis. and sanctions. we have seen vladimir putin both in the field and q&a. a record 1000 journalists attended the conference. he answered them for a full four hours. this year, he is unlikely to stand by. here comes vladimir the

defender. to ryan,efore we go breaking news from switzerland. wiss bank has s introduced at negative interest rates. the swiss national bank introduced a cap versus the euro . the level has been getting precariously close to the 120 euros level. today, it has taken a step to ensure it defends its currency and make sure the country does not slip to deflation. some are two what the eurozone is doing. >> -- similar to what the eurozone is doing. forecasting only 1/10 of a percent growth. now it is down to zero. they have brought down there for the 15 forecast.

changes afoot in switzerland. >> they are saying they will continue to enforce it with the utmost determination. reaffirming minimum exchange rates. they are hugging the 120 level. let's move it on. back to russia. our man from russia, ryan chilcote, is here. from the speech that putin makes , where do we focus the spotlight? the russian president is going to talk mostly about how the situation is under control. he wants to prevent panic on the streets. we have had people panic buying in anticipation of prices going up. we have seen a lot of people turning their hard-earned rubles into dollars. there has not been a run on the banks and he wants to make sure there was not. that is going to be his first order of this does. we can expect fiery rhetoric and

at the west, blaming them for this crisis. for the sanctions. the last time i asked him what he thought about the price of oil, he said to me, if a grandmother had -- i will not which is an abstract case. address the oil price and ruvell depreciation. he has every intention to do that. he has four hours to talk. what we are seeing today, it is strengthening. he is in a better position that if the comfort had happened a couple of days ago when it had hit 80. >> are we going to have an interesting turn of phrase on the subject of capital control. >> we might hear him say there will be no couple controls. there is concerns that there

could be capital controls. what a lot of the banks are talking about, you might get a capital control light situation where exporters are twirled -- --d they have to turn synchronize it with the government and central bank. the idea of broad-based capital controls like cyprus or iceland, where people cannot convert their money, cannot take it out of the banks, that is unlikely. a lot of people fear that would create more panic. you can measure concern about capital controls to read yesterday, shares trading in london. and in moscow. investors are willing to pay -- at the end of yesterday, less than 6% more for the london listed shares. they are concerned that they by the moscow paper, if there are capital controls, they will not be able to get it out.

the concern is subsiding. over the last couple of days, people thought there were -- they were paired to trade -- prepared to pay 10% more. that is their bank, -- bear bank, russia possibly just lender. they have had a terrible year. the last few days, it has been on fire. >> while they addressed the nation, eu leaders gather in brussels to discuss putin and other matters. >> they will not be discussing financial assistance for russia, which shows you how different the crisis is from 1998 when the billion --$20 coughed up $20 billion to help russia. with the u.s. would rather have his sanctions. that's what is on obama's table.

he has another set of sanctions he can impose. they have been approved unanimously by congress. they would authorize the u.s. and president obama's to impose sanctions. international energy companies that do business in russia and restrict access further to capital markets for russia's arms exports. provide money and arms to the ukrainian military to the tune of $350 million. say,ush us -- russians that is escort or a. escalatory. the set of sanctions authorizes him to do this. he could graciously say, idled think we should and -- exercise it. >> we will have extensive coverage of putin's speech from

9:00 this morning on bloomberg. >> there has been a change of language from the fed. . is the keyword word. the chairman indicated she is in a hurry to raise rates. she said the fed is unlikely to raise them before april. the dollar rose in response. so did equity markets and the u.s. and asia. she struck a note of caution on u.s. jobs. parks there is room for further improvement. -- further is room for improvement, which many people who want jobs being unable to find them. too many of working part-time who would prefer full-time. and too many who had -- have given up searching for a job, but would likely do so if the market were stronger. >> hello, north korea.

watched every episode of your show in preparation for the interview. i particularly enjoy the miley cyrus episode. >> that is from "the interview." that might be as much of the you see because sony has pulled it from its planned release. caroline hyde is more. yesterday, the premier was canceled. they are not going to be releasing it at all. you can understand why. it started with a cyber attack. the threats have become more vicious and terrorist like. starting to cite september the 11th. a understand the terrorist, named so far, we recommend you keep yourselves distant.

unsurprisingly, suddenly a lot amc, putnema chains, out statement saying, we will not show the film. regal entertainment, the number one chain, is understood to be pulling it also. sony has said, we have decided that to move forward with the planned unveiling of the film on december 25. we have -- respect and understand our partners. they say, the safety of theatergoers and employees is paramount. the terrorists have got their way. they have one. -- won. from a public relations point of view, sony is having one blow after another. angelina jolie. it has been a litany of disasters. >> there will be a film made about the making of this film. you cannot script it. it has been a phenomenal

disaster. didune, we know north korea go to the u.n. and said, we don't like the idea of the film. it was not until november that suddenly sony's computer system was crippled. gettingalaries displayed. the differences between female and male executives. aggressive, phenomenal e-mail notns that you could believe existed between colleagues, producers and executives. even deals done with snapchat. buy google glass type companies. unbelievable repercussions. north korea denying involvement. is, who is behind

all of this? >> there was a tweet from the romney. -- mitt romney. said, don't cave. and as forfor free donation we can give to ebola. >> we understand today, they the fact that north korea is behind the cyber attack. i have been reading interesting pieces saying, north korea is an easy excuse. perhaps this is not a nationstate. maybe it is not actually north korea, but other hackers. politicsother views on . extortion, even. it does seem the u.s. can come out and say, we think it was the

north korean government behind the cyber attack to read >> thank you. >> join us on twitter. would you pay five dollars to watch the interview? >> he has 1.6 million followers. >> a few more than me. >> we are all on twitter. >> still to come, oil trading near a five year low. the next guest says, that is not for long. ♪ >> time to talk oil.

joining us is the head of analysis at lloyd's intelligence. by the speedrised with which, after the opec meeting, it tanked. >> it was even more surprising, given that the u.s. was on holiday. giving the initial sharp move down, it has continued to read it is a bit like a bungee jump. reach the bottom, bounce up a little bit more, and then down. eventually finding the level. at the moment, we don't know

with the level is. there is a little bit of stability and the last few days, around $60 a barrel. into 2015, the first part of the year, on paper, that ongoing surplus of oil over demand looks set to continue. it is hard to see the price can be sustained even at $60 a barrel. banksseems some central are looking at this is transitory. >> i agree. look at your supply demand balance is going out for 2015, and then tentatively into it6, the $60 oil or $50, could achieve many things. a slowdown into the growth of non-opec production. particularly in the u.s.

it could also lead to an increase in the expected rate of growth for oil demand. particularly in developing countries -- developing countries. lower supply, higher demand. the market will start to move into balance. virtually by itself. when you get into the second half of 2015, you could find the market is close to balanced. the question is how low we have gone in the meantime. at what point will we have dropped to before the recovery begins? >> what lessons can we learn from history? era ofre predicting an low oil prices. could we be facing a similar scenario? >> people rush quickly to declare new eras. a question of this time. compared to other occasions in

the past. countries, principally saudi arabia, they are the drivers. they have decided we are not going to go to any path we have taken in the past, which is to cut supply to put a floor on the prices immediately. we are going to see where the market takes this. what impact it has on producers. we saudi arabia and opec, we will not surrender market share. once you surrender market share, it can be a long time before you get it back. >> exxon mobile, briefly, they say the population will grow and the demand-side will bolster any long-term. >> in the long term, population growth will boost energy demand. impact onhave a huge the demand for transport, fuels, hydrocarbons. >> thank you.

>> 7:20. coming up, what will put in say -- vladimir putin say? we are looking ahead to the big speech. ♪ >> the 21 of our top stories.

the russian's president address to his people happen soon.

thanks for joining us. what are we expecting to see from vladimir putin? one of the messages he wants to put across. he ishave no idea what going to say. he keeps this a secret until the last moment to read he is facing a tough situation. the situation is economically turbulent. people might be loyal to him but not the ruble. it is declining fast. the prospect for the next year is fairly grim. >> where they -- will there be a conversation around capital controls? will we learn about how the government might approach that subject? >> this is the choice that putin is facing. so far, his refrain from controleral measures to

capital. measures by liberal the central bank have not seemed to be working. they have so far not stopped the panic. tatian to opt for other measures, i think, is rising. -- the 10th patient to opt for other measures, i think, is rising. >> how is this being ruled it -- viewed in russia? >> this may be a good idea. it may help to curb the decline of the ruble. thes totally blocking business activity in russia. 17%,an interest rate at there is no capacity for business to develop in russia. it is controversial as it is. is taken even by those who are sympathetic to the

measure. >> how much do you think economic turmoil in russia is going to stick to vladimir putin? either in the polling or the way he is treated by those around him? >> so far, the loyal to two put loyalty to vladimir putin is high. the approval rate has remained at 80% since the annexation among crimea. ,obody would say so in public even if there is dissatisfaction. there is a since there is no alternative to vladimir putin. everybody is oil. everyone is loyal to the ruble with the capital flight continues. people are getting ready the ruble. buyng dollars are trying to something. >> think you for joining us. a visiting fellow at the european council on foreign relations. 7:26. we will take a short break.

with earlys ahead elections. a live shot of athens. we will be back in athens throughout the morning. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown."

breaking news. bank has gone to a negative rate on deposits. i'm told by our next guest, you're not, they have done it that -- before. are we getting started? the 120 peg.f prepared toe to --

take further measures. keep an eye on that. let's move the agenda. the ruble trading with a big rally, up 11%. up another 4%. dollar down, ruble up. we are waiting to see what putin says. have a look at the dollar. considerable time -- patience is the new virtue at the fed. will movet move rates as quickly higher as they had originally anticipated. by the end of next year, rates in the u.s. will be somewhere around 1.25% if all goes according to plan. toet yellen is not intending

raise rates. that is the interpretation. >> i am and edwards. these are the top headlines. is preparing to give his news crisis -- conference. around halfs lost its value since june. amid the slide in crude oil prices. the chair of the fed has indicated she is in no hurry to raise interest rates. she says the fed is unlikely to move before april. the central bank will be quote patient. president obama has ended half a century of hostility between the u.s. and cuba, announcing washington will begin normalizing relations with havana. they will open an embassy in the cuban capital and let some travel and trade restrictions including rules which prohibit the import of cuban cigars. canceled plans to

release movie, "the interview." the fbi is planning to announce north korea is behind the cyber attack, according eight to a person briefed on the investigation. greece, there will be another vote on december 23. followed by a another six days later. fails on the -- he third attempt, a elections will be called. a man that got 160 out of the 300 votes, short of the 200 needed. >> that is right. it could have been worse. but not by much. let's that forget the baseline was 155.

that is how many members of parliament they had. they have only managed to peel away five independent lawmakers. for thert the candidacy new president of greece. nobody expects them to win. people are watching for was how close, how much within striking distance of the 180 votes, which is what he will need in the be.d round, he would the answer, oak ridge bank of america, they were expecting 162 votes. this is worse from there baseline. we have seen the prime minister might start to work out ways he can persuade others to come to his side. some are suggesting, like bank the possibility of a

technocratic government. some are suggesting he will call early general elections anyway. the other thing to bear in mind is politicians ultimately do like to keep their jobs. who fear a general election would mean they will lose theirs may find their mind more concentrated. and prompt them to vote. >> elliott, markets don't seem to unnerve. -- unnerved. we can see greek bonds slightly lower. but nothing compared with the big selloff we saw last week. there would be early presidential elections. many people will be keeping their powder dry until the third round under some are 29th. at these to see how close he is getting to the number of 180 votes before deciding what to do. >> elliott, thank you.

get more on the shape of the market. a joining us now is stephen. the head of fixed income research. let's talk about what the swiss national bank is doing. we havended me, manus, seen negative rates before from the swiss in 2011. how important is this they have gone for a negative rate? >> ethic it is important. it is a signaling to read currencyrates are a policy. it is designed to weaken a currency, against the euro in this case. i thought of the ecb. the ecb had negative rates as well. it was directed at the currency. the point i am making is you use negative rates to influence the currency. why is there this bandwagon

toward qe? there was one policy for each particular problem. the right policy is the rate. they have done this before. -120 five. >> there is on the screen. >> they headed in 2011. in 2011.ad it the threat was the breakup of the euro, not just the weakness. we had u.s. qe3 coming on screen. a different world. ones and he went to minus -1.25. here we go again. i think it is important. what willthinking, they do? >> you are saying they should --

this is one of your big, some would say contentious calls for next year. >> provocative. i think the negative rate is inconsistent with sovereign qe. this qe is an asset swap. simply that, just an asset swap. the central break -- bank brings bonds in and gives cash out. the ecb pays a rate of interest on that. >> if you have negative rates, that does not work. >> there is no incentive for the bank. >> even the bank of japan pays 10 basis points. if you want negative rates, you go the whole way. i wonder on the ecb, who once to do what. -25 goes to -150.

>> you say yields could actually go up. does that mean some measure of yields across the eurozone as a whole? >> especially the core rate. i think it is inconsistent to have a negative rate and do a large-scale asset purchase. 500 billion or one trillion, where will they get the bonds from? the -- they will have a different rule for asset managers. i presume there was a different plan for them. i don't see how you get a large amount of bonds when yields are so low. is interesting the swiss are persevering with this negative rate. they also used bond intervention in 2011. swiss and influence the

euro rate. choice, the policy of if you want to influence your currency, is the interest rate. qe.necessarily sovereign that will get the debate going again. >> we will come back to you. just stay there. he will stay with us. next up, bart chart time. ♪ chart. for today's bart

the five-year junk-bond rally, is it over? bond index from 2010. the price, not the yield. up until recently, it was on track for its fifth annual increase. the left hand corner of your screen. junk on's as measured by the bank of america have risen every year since 2011. today, the high-yield index is down 1.6% in 2014.

in december alone, it has dropped 3.6%. that the worst monthly performance. see the yellow circle? sunkndex has some by 7% -- by 7%. merrill lyncha indices show they fell a record of 4.92%. the shift has been stunning. the words of james camp. he is a portfolio manager. he says if history is a guide, it is not clear things well just -- one of the reasons we are seeing the shift in high-yield is the movement in the price of oil. 10%any bonds make up about of the high-yield market.

shunning the debt on concerns oil prices below $60 will precipitate defaults. it is bonds that are issued by energy companies that her -- are bearing the brunt of the sell off. that is interesting. don't feel too down for junk bond investors since 2010, we have been on a long rally. quite a rally since 2010. 143%,onds have returned despite weak times in 2011 and 2013. has the five-year junk-bond rally come to an end? >> we have breaking news on china. bank in china set to give short-term loans to banks today. this is the news this morning,

coming from china. we have seen some of the data on china deteriorating in recent months. that has prompted many to ask whether we will see further stimulus. some are asking whether we will of a drop in the amount money thanks have to set aside and not lend out. to giveid they are set short-term loans to banks today. more topics. stephen major, head of fixed income research. do you want to give us your thoughts on high-yield first, and then maybe on china? >> history is no guide to the future with high-yield. we have unprecedented liquidity. rates have changed the amount of default we have in the future. anybody who is assuming previous cycles are going to be repeated should take into account rates are not going anywhere near previous levels when and if they go up.

the other thing is, we cannot rule out the possibility of help for those companies. think about the heart is in market -- housing market. they could to stop the housing market and foreclosures. i am wondering whether some of these companies and the gas sector may not suffer as much as people are assuming. assuming that the oil price stays down. >> the fed thinks it is transitory. >> i think you have to go with them as well. believe the best direction for high-yield is to buy on weakness. that is a dangerous thing to do, given the size of the movie chart shows. i think we have low rates for a long time. and there's every chance the default rates will not be realized. >> the phrase, we will have low rates, it ties into how do you set yourself up for 2015?

we touched on it the last time. is that the baseline as you look at 2015? has atmainstream opinion last accepted we will have a lower rate for longer. mainstream.ot >> thank you very much. the five-year rate was 4.6. nearly 2.6. it has lost 200 basis points. this year, we have had an adjustment about what the longer term would be. >> the perception of where inflation would be. >> the interest rate. therefore inflation being low as well. >> is to get your thoughts on what is happening in china. are you waiting for more action from the central bank, the government? more stimulation for the chinese economy or not? some of this is engineers.

-- engineered. >> there is a great deal of the quiddity. flexibility in terms of official rates. i am looking at things like the cross rate. the yen has cheapened a lot first is the chinese currency. that matters in the region. we are looking at the dollar euro. allsia, the cross rate are over the place. maybe china has to respond at some point to that. we should not underestimate the policyof five flexibility there is. everybody focuses on the negatives. there is a lot that can be done. >> on the subject of rates, what is the risk the fed does not hike rates? >> that is increasing. it is even more, located. -- it is even more complicated. within the next five years, we could have a peak in the trough.

we have to factor in a lower long-term rate. i think there is a strong possibility they push out the first hike. june is the one everybody is talking about. that could be pushed out toward the end of the year. >> we will hold that thought. will come back after break and take up the debate. we will leave you with a -- that is stephen major. a beautiful shot of the place called love gate heill in london. just outside the doors of st. paul's perkasie drill -- st. paul's cathedral. what a lovely shot. ♪ >> vladimir putin identifies --

addresses his nation. we are getting you on the breaking news today. the currency has bounced. but you say focus on bigger issues. >> the currency will be bouncing up and it down. show -- story is what

it does to european growth. we know the german economy is slowing down. ukrainian factor has contributed. i am thinking the real risk from russia is the economic growth outlook for the rest of the world. eurozoneular, the which is on the verge of deflation. it is the impact on other countries and the policy response. >> i want to come around to where we started. the ecb. one of your provocative calls for next year. might qe not happen? >> first of all, does it work? the jury is out. inflation has to go up, and that is not happening in the u.k. or u.s. or japan. is an asset swap. it buys time. it does not actually do anything.

for me, it could actually be deflationary. there is something you have to reverse in the future. i don't think it works. the ecb has had plenty of time to study the results of other qe result around the world. there is the possibility that they choose to do something else. maybe they go further with the negative double. -- de who knows. po. the u.s. treasury yield might be rising in 2015. maybe there is a bit of a recovery coming through. you made the market call of 2015 again. this is your moment. >> we thought 2.14 this year. we don't think who have another rally like that.

higher at the end of 2015. that is my they call. >> thank you very much. move" is up next. the countdown to putin's news conference. ♪

>> welcome to on the move. the ecb could increase stimulus. the deposit rates go negative. patients is the word. janet yellen says the fed is unlikely to raise interest rates to the next couple of weeks. the dollar jumps to a high. the rate hike may come early next year. the greek prime minister failed to get enough support for his presidential nominee.

the parliamentary elections loom. vladimir putin faced tough questions in a conference. we'll bring you the news from that this morning. we are looking at the futures. up 63 points. and let's give you a quick snapshot -- nap shot. that you have to go back to 2011. see a representation of the euro rising and the swiss franc falling. making it very clear full -- make it very clear that if you have a popular currency, we will defend it. the chinese say they will defend banks. there is also