amaras the second key vote. ,cut to negative. as opec oil nations vows to maintain production even at $20 a barrel. kim cut off from the well. korean internet connection is cut off in the latest twist of the sony hack attack story. ♪

>> welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. here in london. also coming up on today's show -- >> if you beat me -- beat you? >> you have to give it back. i mean, you are pretty good. >> you think? >> i realize you are a legend, but -- ready? >> go! stephanie ruhle takes on the fastest man in the world, usain bolt. hask prime minister samaras a second chance to rally among lawmakers in the choice of president. thatnap general election could see the end of austerity and up party take power. it is triggering volatility in the market. the benchmark stock down over 12%. investors are weighing the risk

of the greek austerity and getting voted out of the government. elliott gotkine in athens for round one. good morning. have you booked your ticket for round three? >> not yet, mark. ism suggesting that samaras man electedget his for president. he still needs to hundred votes out of the 300 lawmakers in parliament. he only got 160. he only requires 180 out of 300 votes and he has a fighting chance of getting his man ushered into the presidential palace. not for lack of trying, he went tonational television and lawmakers the prospect of broadening his coalition if they president.s man as he offered to bring back general

elections from mid-2016 if they vote for his candidate. there have been allegations that the government has been trying to bribe politicians to get them to vote for their man. a location that the government vehemently denies. mark, i know students of around , don'ten it takes place you? >> the opposite of what you think it might be. support,ithhold their i am here and they do not base it and they will shout out -- the name itself if they want to give the government their support for the candidate. >> and that's exactly what i said. greece is a country that sparked the crisis. if there are early elections, could it complicate some solutions that the ecb might step forward? >> it could, mark. there is speculation that the central bank may do quantitative

easing, printing money to buy government bonds in a bid to reduce borrowing costs. it do not have a limit when comes to greece. what if snap general elections are called and samaras goals to power and makes good on his promises to repay the debt it owes to the european central bank and the ecb doesn't, what would greece default potentially? they european central bank is left holding greek bonds which are not being repaid, then it is not going to be seen as a decent job. at the same time, you cannot go ahead with quantitative easing and leave greece out in case it might be an issue at hand they will get back to buy financial markets. we saw greek stocks hit after the announcement by the prime minister that the presidential elections would be brought forward. and they were doing pretty well this year and now they are the

worst performing stock market in the world after portugal and russia. mark? >> x, we will see you later. elliott gotkine in tel aviv. [no audio] oil is irrelevant. memberrabia and, the oil said crude could drop to $20 a barrel and it would not push opec to touch the output target. the biggest producers that are not going to give up the market share despite the plunge in crude prices in the last six months. is not the only major player taking a stance or admitting to declining prices for let's bring in ryan chilcote. european titans also playing a role in the story. bignteresting, we saw the three. bp, shell, their outlook cut by s&p overnight. a sickly because their cash flow

going for him not just this year andin 2015 as well -- getting their cash flow cut not just this year but in 2015 as well. why are they european producers as opposed to u.s., they also had their outlook cut and we could explore. the reason is the dividend payouts in europe are that much larger and further constrains their balance sheets and this, claimants. naimi only speaks in five or six word sentences so we made a big analysis out of what he said there. said to like opec is keep the course under saudi pressure and allow the oil to fall and we saw a little bit of that, a little spike in the oil price for a day or two. but nonetheless, it was like it will hold or where it is or get

lower. that makes things tough. ago on itsn week upstream business and they are cutting costs and going diversification process, which is a euphemism for laying people off. there's only so much and they can cut at this point and that's going to be an issue going forward. >> the ruble touched almost 80 two the dollar and at that point, all sorts of predictions. a week later, up. >> lessened in devaluation, taking them to a new low of 82 the ruble. starting at 35 to the dollar. 55.then bring it back to they were as low as 59% year to date. 41% butruble has fallen it looks so much better than it did a week ago. part of the reason, we saw that reside in the oil price. part of that is we have these

exporters that just met with the government and did not get in the official notes. we know the discussion is you should really be taking your heart currency revenue that they get when they sell their oil and gas and the other commodities four dollars and turn them into rubles. they have been helping out presumably by buying get up. >> and china helping out. >> china is the new imf. who would've thought so. beenally, the chinese have talking up the prospect of helping up the russians. they already have a currency swap with russia. it has been there since october. n, it is borrow in the russian assistance that they will not get from the west. the political will would not be there for russia it might not structurally makes sense. for china possibly, it does.

they want to be a big country power and they wanted that kind of diplomacy. the chinese president has talked about that. yua ton be a reserve currency and it doesn't help to engender among other service providers. at this point, it is just talk but worth pointing out and done the same kind of deal they used it to us as argentina at help. venezuela this year. these kinds of countries that cannot get help from the imf. it is definitely interesting and the confidence that the chinese have and doing a deal with the russians to help the russians and reflected in the support easy for the ruble the last couple of days. >> x. see you -- thanks. north korea's internet access was cut off for several hours. the country's connection is patchy at best but went dark after suffering problems and access was finally restored, , this is kim jong on

him among the first to emerge on the website of the party newspaper. the blackout followed the well of acai cyberattacks on sony pictures and president obama's vow to respond. you can join the conversation on twitter. check in on my twitter page. north korea is among of the top trending subjects today as is holidays, peyton manning, he plays american football i think. as stories you want to hear about. markbartontv. greek politics are concerned for some. samaras is rallying his troops in order to avoid that general election. volatile voting is leading to volatility in the market. we will talk when we return. stay with us. ♪

two billionaire brothers at the top of the most valuable real estate, he spent five years in jail.

at 10.5 billion dollars. he was one of five men convicted in the biggest ever corruption trial. rosalind chin joins us. good morning. >> hi. let's look at some of the pieces in the case because it can be, ken. the two brothers who ran the second most valuable property company was found to corrupt hongd to kong's number two official. you can see pictures there. he was the chief secretary. it is the second highest position in government. it is something comparable to the vice president or prime minister. away orf executive gets is away, the chief minister steps in, such a high position.

it was high profile in hong kong and gathered a lot of public interest. these are the two men. thomas kwok was found guilty of conspiring to pay hui 1.1 million u.s. dollars to get favorable properties. he has been sentenced to five years in jail. was found guilty of five out of a charges include conspiracy to accept money in bribes during his time as chief secretary. and later as a member of the government advisory board. thomas, these are both men in their 60's. both facing even five years in jail is a lot of time for these men. this is what the judge also said at summing up the case. the judge said thomas sentencing is difficult when one is dealing with minimal or not young but

committing serious offenses. for that, he gave them the sentences. a of the charges they face maximum of seven years. -- each of the charges they face are a maximum of seven years. family and the kwok a friend of hui were also convicted. for one and four for another. was acquitted of all of the charges against him. >> rosalind change in hong kong. greek lawmakers are casting ballots in the second vote to control the head of state. is trying to rally support for his choice in order to avoid a snap general election in europe's most indebted state. what does the trauma mean for marcus? i am joined by the chief current strategist.

-- what does the drama mean? >> we are kind of expecting a the bigote, samaras, one is december 29. >> i think most people have referendum that we would end up with a general election at some point other than the new year. what we see now is a countdown to that trauma. i suspect most people are -- higher expectations. the other thing is here we are, pre-christmas and markets are relatively speaking, investors are probably clinton down for the christmas period and not taking it more seriously. >> how does the greece election for the third vote? how does it complicate what to the ecb is trying to achieve?

investors might start getting jittery about the greek elections and pushing yields of cost the periphery. make it more difficult. there's already the debate within the ecb about their portioning of risk among certain more risky nations expected to take on greater degrees of risk. here we have greece. and could fight against all of the issues that have been raised over the last two or three years, austerity, said that. that makes it that much more difficult. hefairness, let's say theoretically get in, willing really be a case they will punch wholesale against all of this austerity measures? i do not know. harder make it that much the first quarter of the year with this huge debate about how qe -- >> they want to renegotiate

public debt and that is on their agenda of items to achieve. >> one of the things that strikes me about all of this is that european nations, far more prepared for this than they were in 2011 and 2012. in particular, you could argue that with this cyprus prices now gone, almost a dry rail for an exit from the eu. maybe it is -- if push came to shove and grease really wants out, they could say if you want to go, go. i do not think they will. it means that the eurozone, the rest, is in a far stronger position to deal than they were several years ago. >> what does that mean for 2015? we're almost at a two-year low. how low can they euro go next year?

>> i think we end up at about 110. [indiscernible] the fed continues its high rates. the complicating factor in the first quarter and exactly the point we just raised. thece makes that harder for ecb to put in place quantitative easing. does it mean we have to push it back? >> do we expect it to be implemented? >> i do not. mr. schrock he said it was quite clear. he said we are not going to do the 22nd. said wasr. draghi quite clear. it could be we are in implementing it in the beginning of the second quarter. >> thank you. simon derrick. ♪

>> welcome back. the chief current see strategist, simon derrick. winner, wills the it be the winner in 2015? is when soend up policy divergence story becoming more clear. we have the u.s. relatively and every body fighting against inflation.

think we have to be slightly cautious about the dollar at least the pace and timing area the deflation story doesn't matter there as much as it does elsewhere. willning commodity prices take some of the pressure off. nevertheless, what became pretty clear over the last few weeks and the fed, the oil prices they put more money in consumers' pockets. as a result, they will continue down the monetary policy. i think that will be the story. >> and they'll slowing inflation bank ofan it deter that england for raising rates with cpi inflation touching 1% in the ast -- >> i think you're absolutely right, mark. one of the key stories this year has said people's changing

perceptions about what the bank has to do. we out in the bank would've already done it by now, there is a really sweet chance of later next year at the best before the bank hikes experience we have this inflationary pressures. all of those things will determine the bank. on thedoes it play out basis, the bloomberg correlation ? it is up 5%. down 6% against the dollar. how does sterling fair with the election as well? factorreal complicating that election is too close to call. straightforward. that also raises the prospect that we could end up with an election to a referendum on the eu membership in 2017. you look at the polling and it makes it very difficult to call.

one in five chance in the next two years we could have a vote in the u.k. their votes in favor of leaving the eu. that said, moderate expectations about monetary policy and i think -- what are the poor performers especially in the earlier part of next week. roble, half the height of the crisis passed? >> i think so but it doesn't mean it cannot weaken further. we got oil prices. i suspected no. i can imagine that over the course of a month if oil price trend lower and i think they will. >> simon derrick, have a good christmas. up, north korea was temporarily without internet service yesterday. the question remains -- was it a retaliationiberate

from the countries involved in the hack attack against sony? we will have the latest developments. you can always follow me on twitter and tell me what you think of the show. what stores are you following today? @markbartontv stay with us. ♪

>> you watching "countdown." the u.s. reports today on gdp and durable goods. durable goodsnd will be increasing. there is your dollar-yen up to 3.7%. gdp, the biggest rise in the third quarter up from the

previous estimate of 3.9%. greek prime minister will make his second attempt to raise support from lawmakers for his choice of president. reports of 200 and 300 lawmakers samaras fails again today there will be a third and final vote. korea begin experiencing intermittent problems accessing the internet yesterday before the whole network was cut off. china started an investigation into allegations that north korea carried out a cyber attack on sony pictures. died at the age

of 70. he had been receiving treatment for lung cancer. british pioneer of the blues boom in the 1960's and is remembered by many of his performance of "with a little 1969from my friends," in let's get more north korea, caroline is with us. this is not normal disruption. beit does that appeared to according to certain key experts. as you said close to 10 hours that north korea was off-line and they said -- it isn't normal, they hadn't seen anything like this before. we spoke to other networks and they said, if you look at it it looks like it was relatively simple. distributed denial of service attack. it is a type of cyber attack.

he basically flied internet with loads ofvers traffic and it brings it down temporarily. saying these experts are it is unlikely that this is the reprisal that the united states has been saying. just a couple of days ago the accused north korea of being behind the sony attacks. many are saying that this north korea going off-line would be a bit schoolboy of the u.s. to do because any hacker could do it for $200. and you are annoyed you attack it. wreak also not going to that much havoc on north korea's cyber attack potential. they're still saying we're not to do with sony and if you punish us will come back harder.

they were quoted as saying they will come back 1000 times greater if they were punished. will we understand their cyber attacking is done from other outposts outside north korea. is theycan understand have patchy internet. it only has four official networks connecting on few computers to the internet. wondered 52,000 152,000straight -- has networks. we get excited about whether or not he had to do with the u.s.. the u.s. asked china to investigate whether they were involved? >> they are. china had been approached by the

united states to ask them for help because all of the telecoms and networks run via china. there the equipment maker for north korea. few want to see what north korea has been up to potentially china is a big way to go about it. that is with the sony attacks seems to have been routed by. they said we will help the u.s. investigate overall. i think what's funny -- or is that back in may there was really tension between the u.s. and china. the u.s. accusing military chinese of stealing secretive data from companies and now sony has to go back to them saying would you actually help us out? it would be a great precedent for the two superpowers to be working together. time to look at who made

money and who lost money. is tom us from singapore met calm. what is the big theme? for us it is the disparity between chinese billionaires and russian billionaires. if you look at the world's 200 richest people they have done well. within that 200 your 10 or 11 chinese billionaires and they are alone worth below $50 billion and you take the russian billionaires they are down $40 billion. chinese -- the continued economic stories and jack markell and in with russia's investment into ukraine and the oil price more recently -- they are really struggling.

>> who made the most money this year? the man at the moment, jack markell alibaba's ipo one of the pots of the year and his personal fortune has risen $26 billion this year alone. world's 17th the richest man. riser overe biggest warren buffett. >> who lost the most? across the pacific, sheldon adelson. the founder of sands. the macau casinos are having a tough time you're in china is cropping down on corruption and what happens is there is left -- less revenue. billion, but.7

don't feel too sorry he still has about $28 billion. >> thank you a lot. join us on twitter and join the conversation, who have you been following this year? has had the biggest increase in twitter followers? what are the stories your following today. his 2014 the year cap videos took over the internet. we will talk about what went viral this year. -- theby will hayward buzz feed vice president for europe. stay with us. ♪ >> time for a different look at

the year 2014. this could be called the year of cute hat videos. i'm joined i one man with his finger on the pulse, buzz feed vice president for europe.

will watch a few videos, chat about them and then we will expand the conversation. the real love on the internet are cute kittens. the first video is called dear kitten. what's watch a little bit. -- i remember when i could fit in issue. this is nothing like it, inc. and golf in 360 degrees of foot smell. enjoy it while you can. your kitten, because you are so small, you cannot jump which is sad, sad for you. --ntually you will >> it did make me laugh there it is not the biggest cap fan. cap -- cats?out >> far smarter people than

myself and try to answer this question and i don't have us over bowlers wants other than cats are curious and slightly .uspicious people just enjoy them. >> that is an ad isn't it? >> yes. >> it leads to the question about how brands are benefiting from this viral content. >> it is missing and evolution on that front. web video started as a small ring. with over a billion users of you to. they need tolize start connecting with consumers where they are and where they are is their mobile very they wake up and they're picking it up and working with mobile -- facebook or youtube and asia think not just about tv. >> is there a line between me

uploading a cute video of my cat and the company coming up with a clever ad like that. does the subscriber think i am does that make it more interesting. >> one of the first rules with's shall advertising which is what does feet specializes in -- you need to focus on the consumer and what they will enjoy. if you can create seven meaningful for them and something relevant to you as a brand, then you will see sharing. you want to get consumers passing your branded content onto each other by facebook, twitter or e-mail. >> this is another one, total shopping real women into cover models. >> feel like i have wrinkles around my eyes -- i will never be skinny.

it can be hard when you see models and celebrities and you don't look same. it is so clever -- the music starts sad and then it is more uplifting it at the invisibles revelatory as the women realize they can become from all with what they are. a little journey. >> when the web or started people shared humor and things like that but the one thing with senior 2014 is the rise of messaging. this video is not funny and bulimic a laugh and it. have any cats in it. >> fruit that you are eating wrong and i hope we show the strawberry wrong.

i have never eaten an apple from the bottom -- have you? what's it like? >> i try to do this 81 just yesterday and i'm not convinced. i still think the traditional ways easier. the one that is different is the strawberry one, when i cut the strawberry i cut off the top and you lose a big lack. push the straw to the bottom -- i never do that. >> information shares well. especially if it is quirky or different. three great examples of the kinds of content that share very well. >> the stats are amazing.

you say the spikes of content on buzz feed performed 10 or 20 times better than the traditional banner ads. >> the big thing that we have seen especially in 2014 is the realization that the banner ad market is broken. no one has gone to work and said -- i saw this great banner ad yesterday. in the age of mobile it gets worse. buzz feed and companies like buzz feed are trying to build content. we're trying to create meaningful things that consumers want to share with their friends. next what is the big trend in 2015? mobile will be the

biggest thing. companies that say their mobile first is like the dad at the dance artist. they're saying it because they are not really cool and not really mobile friendly. but it will be the biggest thing. video built into the social feed your it -- feed. we will see more and more rants creating social ads built civic facebook. -- built specifically for facebook. what is the recipe -- it should have cats in it? what is the easy way to viral success? >> the wonderful thing is that there are no rules or guarantees. there are more people trying to create viral cat content than anything -- so what you need to

do is focus on the consumer in ink about what they would find useful and enjoy and give them a --son to share very at share. one of the big viral trends of the year. up, panic on the streets of dresden. next. ♪

>> bloomberg has been speaking to the world's fastest man. stephanie talked to michael -- the same bolt about his comments usain bolt his comments. >> i'm with those guys i would not say i am the greatest ever. that is my aim. >> why not go out on top and say you have done it and you say you are legend -- why run the risk that you may lose your group -- groove? >> i think i have one more in

me. rio is the one. has done two but someone done two already. not four? >> my coach says i could do it but now just three. >> how much do you run? >> i don't of the distance i run but i train six hours a day. >> what you think of all these athletes and their enhancing drugs? >> it's bad it has tainted sport. years -- youthe can work hard and it yourself. michael johnson has done it before and shown he is one of the greatest without a doubt. it is possible. are you concerned about the

ioc? i tried to get myself involved in the politics and not worry about angst. -- worry about things. i let my agent and people do that. >> when did you know that you had some big special? but the always fast moment that changed my life was after the olympics i had a car crash and i came out unscathed and i sat down and said i was put on this earth to do something you shall and to compete and run -- to do something special and to compete and to run. that's what i was put on this earth for.

that's why it feels so good when i see people telling me all the time i am in it ration. >> will bring you more from that interview throughout the morning. hans, what you have for us? >> i'm looking at these protests last night in dresden, in all the papers -- they are protesting what they say is the islamabad tatian of the west -- ification of the west. their critics accuse them of being anti-islam -- they said they are not anti-islam just anti-islamification of the west. germany is taking on many refugees -- they will be up 60% this year. it is an interesting story to

watch and there is a counter demonstration and raised in -- 4500. across all of germany, 20 house what theyted against say are neo-nazi aspects. >> joe cocker has died. the blues singer and the legend -- a singular performer. style -- hisorming feet were stuck to the floor while he waved his hands. he played at woodstock "with a little help my friends." the one i love is "you can leave your hat on." >> verging on ridiculous -- how on earth did a seal get found 20 miles inland.

agitated to ift i was on 20 miles at sea. they think he made his way up a brook. he is safe. ♪ >> high noon for samaras, he

faces his second key nomination on the vote for president. the cuts to negative, standard & poor's slashes its output for european oil measures as opec evento maintain production to $20 a barrel and kim is cut off from the west. twist to the sony hack attack story.

welcome back to "countdown your go -- "countdown." to avoid a snap general election that could cnn's to the austerity party take power. investors are weighing the risk of being committed to greek austerity and getting voted out of the government. bloomberg's elliott was in athens for round one. just to air on the side of caution -- if you were a betting man and of not suggesting that you are what you could do a lot worse if you like short rings than putting money on samaras not getting the vote after round

two. in round one, they needed 200 out of 300 votes available and five lawmakers did not turn up with a new 200 of the 300 managede and he only 160. he still needs 200 and when his target drops to 180 in round three that people really give him a fighting chance. he surprised ago people and went on national television and said if you vote thend support as president i will broaden my coalition to incorporate more pro-european or political parties in my government. generalring forward elections to the end of 2015 because he does not want for there to be turmoil going on in

greece. they're even been allegations to spice things up a little bit of rides being offered to persuade lawmakers to vote on the government side. the government has denied any impropriety in its bid to coax people. start of thee second round tomorrow and i think it is highly unlikely that he wins and that we will be there for round three. >> the country that sparked the eurozone crisis -- if there are early elections could complicate the solutions the european central bank i employ -- might employ? >> the european central bank may opt to do quantitative easing -- printing money to buy government debt. but of course that brings with

it a whole other bunch of problems -- particularly if there is a snap general election. good on its promises to renegotiate debt with for example the european central bank or in what happens if that takes place? would the government then not make repayment? that would undermine the european central bank decision -- you cannot mix greece out when i government debt -- when buying government debt. investors are nervous about the greek volatility and it has caused bond the plunges in the wake of the shock announcement that he would bring forward the presidential elections. the greek stock market had a good first order and now it is the worst performing stock market in the world. >> thank you.

the fall in the price of oil is a relevant -- the bold words of the saudi arabian prime minister. it could drop to $20 a barrel and it would not push opec to cut it target. says it will not give up its market share despite a reduce percent plunge in the last six months. he isn't the only oil major taking a stance against falling oil prices. iran and european oil prices making their voices heard her in -- voices heard. costsdi arabia production four dollars to five dollars a barrel and $20 they're still making money in they need higher than that and all of the saudi arabian countries need higher oil prices. is to clean up the shell producers and shake out

the higher cost of producers in the market -- he can stand there for a while but it is obviously causing a lot of ane. -- pain. >> the ruble has been moving in tandem with the price of oil and it was just a bit ago where the thee hit $80 -- 80 to dollar. 33% high noon this time last week. that is when the ruble hit 80 rubles to the dollar and it is .29.t 53 the exporters that have been meeting with the government -- we understand from a russian newspaper they're basically selling their reserves.

gas of theseil and are selling overseas and under government orders are buying rubles. >> they are under orders from march the first to roll back their preserves to where they were in october. market participants believe that --ns tables and between 40 40 billion to $50 billion over the next couple of. it's like to mash rooms hindered the kremlin has gone looking for change in the soap up. the russian president does not want to spend or than their 400 million dollars were the reserves -- so we get a little we knowhat going on. the bank was on the market yesterday but small potatoes.

finance ministry saying they will spend $7 billion but now we have the state exporters that founded this other pocket. it dividing huge support. >> and huge the order for the stock it. in those five days, it has risen by 35%. biggest five-day increases november 2000 and >> to be fair that is the dollar denominated. >> almost all of that would be the strengthening of the ruble. >> it is still down 40% since reaching a high june 25. the last five days has been quite amazing. the latest tweak in the hacking saga. north korea's internet access was cut off after several hours. restored, images of kim jong on visiting a fish

farm were among the first to arrive on the newspaper -- the blackout all is the cyberattacks on sony pictures and the governments of val to respond. >> join us on twitter and take part in the conversation. what have you been tweeting ?oday >> will do a little russia tweeting -- a nice story about a's book being accused of colluding with the government suppress information or it x our next guest thinks the dollar supreme next year. ♪ >> time for the company news.

facebook social network hitting a record price of $81. the highest it has been since it started trading in 2012. company's alien dollar

acquisition of instagram and thousand 12 is reportedly paying off. the app is now worth the $5 billion -- so says citigroup. i'll simmons we did guilty in an effort to pay record $772 billion line to end the investigation to win power department contract. it is the biggest criminal penalty ever paid to the u.s. justice to artman on foreign practices act. >> the revolution would stand a mistake double message to countries around the world. >> the corruption scheme was obtained across more than a decade in several continents.

there companies around the world that this department of justice will be relentless in rooting out and punishing corruption to the are this extent of the law. >> diva says it is working to restore public confidence. report -- g over his thefee for resident says approach is being implemented thewill take some time. research director of forex.com joins us now to talk all matters russia. in the last three days -- four and 30%e dollar's fall against the ruble. a week ago today we were almost 80 and now we are as low as 54. as the worst past?

gets through that stage with the market goes crazy but the market could not sustain those losses every day forever. above 50 is a real stress for the russian government and for the russian economy and we saw the russian bank needs to get bailed out earlier is weak and that has been the average. we're definitely going out of the woods. announced by the government that companies are having to repatriate their foreign earnings into rubles -- they seem to be working for now. >> the panic measures are creating a little bit of stability but they have been criticized in the kremlin has been criticized. the very good thing they did was to change the accounting rules to quote assets

based on q3 ruble crisis. you get to the stage where russia implements capital controller will that not the nessus -- necessary. >> we know from the kremlin side of things they're trying to limit the amount of intervention they do. if you state that the chances are they can go out spend freely trying to pop up their currency and that is the next stage. russia is a commodity producer -- what will 2015 prove for commodity producers? with prices falling for most of 2014. it will be a year two halves. as you move into 2015 things look quite rough.

just as -- this isn't just oil producers. if a country like australia -- very fundamental data over the past 15 years and things get ready rough. commodity super cycle -- 15 years of gains and we will have 15 years of losses. australia would like that to weaken even further. what is the level? 7985? >> that's all right. 79 would be a possibility particularly if we see china start to weaken further. large losses in the oil price. we think the oil price continues to all the year. continual declines every single day.

as you said, very good news -- the best news possible for australian exports are you >> the dollar was the king of 2015, crosses and metrics and --related bases and indices is a going to continue? definitely for the first half of the year but the second half is a little bit murky. japan and the ecb and the swish -- swiss national bank they're all queuing policies weakening their currency. are they going to be happy to do that? forces --u.s. export will they start to squeal and will lobby groups get uncomfortable. process? >> they will raise rates in the

first x months. backwill possibly scale and that's have a look frightened limit outside the currency by scaling back for further rate rices. -- rises. are waiting for the january 22 meeting which will be more interesting because of what is happening in greece. much does this complicate january 22 meeting? >> i think that could complicate market expectations because the ecb having the reaction to any signs of hannah caused by greek political system -- they could work to the ecb's advantage. we could see a decline in the

euro and in our view the decline in the euro is much more potent rather than embarking on ecb -- qa. maybe the sovereign crisis will take as well below one .20 u.s.-dollar. 1.20 u.s.-dollar. we think in the second half of the year that rings in europe and stabilize and on top of that we could see maybe the u.s. come off the boil. interestingly the swiss national bank is doing with the ecb is doing -- taking rates negative. will it have to do qe? as the ecb has outright they have tussle but

tether themselves to the ecb said they have to act because they are defending that pay gap 120. we think yes indeed they will have to act further to take an early as there is qe down the line. hikenegative interest rate -- >> stay right there, we will talk what sterling and we will talk about the yen. ♪ >> welcome back, catherine's is

still here. i love the way you say you are a lush. -- bullish. -- these calls per 140 or 150 are they tie in the sky? >> they have the potential for temporary action because there's a real consensus that the dollar will strengthen. so we try to go back against that and look at the other side by saying -- will the fed allow this? they come off 20 years of weakening currency. we have to be a tiny bit

realistic and what we saw a lot of people talking about 1.40 or $1.50-yet we try to -- tried to throw something else out there. -- boj see doj further strengthening? the bank of japan are very clear, surprise in the market is the best way to weaken the yen. it gets harder to surprise the market and if they are going to do it they will probably have to wait until the middle of the year or the third quarter of the air. right now everyone is looking for more stimulus and the bank of japan -- now that shinzo abe has been reelected, we know that abenomics will be present for some time. sterling-dollar, bearish.

bearish?ou >> the relative interest-rate difference for us. the bank of england -- a pretty good chance they won't hike until the back end of next year. inflation is falling at a bit of wage growth. >> can they raise rates with inflation at 1%? , could theyound 1% raise rates? >> they could do because it is only 25 basis points. but they know we're going to wait until inflation starts to stabilize. if they want to look through the drop in oil rices -- they look at headline inflation which includes the oil price and they probably shouldn't because their

mandate is a chief inflation target. coming up, high noon for sa maras. the second key vote in his nomination for president. ♪ >> you are watching "countdown."

for thear is rising sixth consecutive day against the japanese currency. the key two pieces of economic data and economists debate here at bloomberg. expect the economy in the u.s. to expand by 4.3% in the third quarter.

the other piece of news, gdp next year from 3.1 to 3%. keep these costs in june bringing the been -- benchmark to as high as 1.25% by the end of 2000 15. -- 2015. today's top headlines. jong-un were among the first to reappear on the country's internet after a blackout that lasted 10 hours. north korea began experiencing intermittent network problems before the whole network cut off. at the request of the u.s. government china began

investigating whether or not north korea carried out the attack on to sony pictures. joe cockerock singer has died at the age of 70. he was a pioneer of the british blues boom in the 1960's and is remembered by many for his performance of "with a little help from my friends," the beatles tune at the woodstock music festival in 1969. the great prime minister will make his case today for the choice of president. he needed support of 200 and 300 lawmakers for his nominee. if he fails again today there will be a third and final vote on december 29. for more on greece let's bring , what can we expect to

see today? >> today is the second round as of three. there is no way he is going to reset 200 threshold -- the key vote is the third boat which is the 29th and when that drops to 180 out of the 300 seat in the first place he got 160. it is about testing the waters to see how close he will get to that magic number. chances of his getting his elected president next week? the math is very difficult. the general feeling is he probably cannot do it. stacked against him because that is 20 lawmakers he needs to move.

it is difficult to see where he will get them from, he has 155 in the coalition, there are 24 independent lawmakers -- not all of which will vote with him so he will have to try to get some of the smaller parties to go his way. he made overtures to them over the weekend and they were widely rejected. doesn't look like it will happen. what are we likely to see from this snap election? right now, it looks clear that the elections -- for a few months they've been pulling this innt ahead and a slow dip

those numbers -- a slight narrowing of that lead -- one from the last quarter. panic as that market couple of weeks ago. but they thought ahead. the first to lose but the greek elect oral landscape is still very volatile. cities out of norway became the second biggest party. the way the polls are looking now they are unlikely to win an outright majority. a lot could still happen. they are not out of reach. foundedeeing parties out of 8% and sometimes those

numbers fall just as rapidly as they rise and are falling again. it is very much a landscape of lock. seat andin the driving that is why markets have not reacted that well. marcus, you a lot, reporter from bloomberg news. from greece to russia where the ruble continues to rally. bloomberg's any a joins us -- bloomberg sennya joins us now. it is a bit different compared to last week, just as you mentioned the ruble hit a record low and is pulling as much as 20%.

this week the ruble continues strengthening which is getting people some optimism. we saw some lines at the banks and atms this week -- people withdrawing their deposit and converting rubles into dollars and euros and hopefully this week the ruble will continue strengthening. >> what about the government and the central bank? elaborate what they have been doing to prop up the ruble. week's tumble of the ruble the central bank and the government have required all the proper measures to prop it up. the rate hike did not have an immediate effect but the central

bank also now measuring to help support the russian banking system which we have been suffering a lot in this economic slowdown. the finance ministry has stepped to say they would be selling their deposits. finally, we have a report today in the newspaper saying that last week the russian government issued a directive to the biggest state owned supporters. oning sure they do not hold to their for exchange revenues and that they convert them into rubles. flushing out the market and thereestimates are --

would be about $1 billion a day sold by these companies in order to help the ruble. thanks a lot, joining us in moscow. >> next year will be extremely volatile for investors. we are looking ahead to 2015. ♪

>> time for today's bar chart. bounce-back-ability. monday, yesterday, mark the fifth time in 2014 that the snb recovered from a drop of 4% or more and it took just 17 days from when the losses actually begin. that is this portion of the chart that fell from a maximum of that hike to the low and back again. the time was 5%.

incomparable drops beginning in january -- the are left drop, the white drop. that is a decline of 6% in the second drop it you can see in april was a drop of roughly 4% and the third one was in july -- a decline of or traverse and and september one was in which was a fall of 7%. those declines read in about a month. significants quite in the 21st also marked the 50th time in 2014 that the s&p 500. s&p reached records on 45 occasions in 2013. the latest rebound from that

seven-day selloff in early ofember gives the s&p a gain .5% for the month so far. it is risen in each of the last six december's. 12.5%o date it is up by and on track for its third straight year of gains. in the last four trading the index is written at 5.4% -- that is the best performance on that stretch and sue thousand 11, after janet yellen said the central bank -- at least through the fourth quarter. todd who to walter oversees a billion dollars at the cio for greenwood capital and associates, something from -- stocks overseas

will continue to move higher and maybe approach 2100 on the s&p by monday. it closed at 2078. -- thet is, the s&p 500 ncebackability, and yes it is a word. markets analyst. thank you for joining us. it is the king, isn't it? record highs this year. what is the outlook for 2015? >> four more things we have to watch. number one, the grease we're talking about -- and the second is the oil. we have to watch

that one. not many people are focused on is the u.s. are earnings and how will they be? this is the first time will have earnings when they have been not qe. these companies would be able to produce at the same pace what they have done deviously. gdphink the eu is as the above 2.5% for the next year. you can certainly put some of your money in there. for the eurozone, italy and trusting, we think 1.4% is a full asked for the next year but the ecb is going to be busy in buying quantitative easing and the have to think about consequences of buying

government and corporate bonds. that is really a way to increase their balance sheet, isn't it? >> how is greece going to complicate matters? by then we will know if there is a general election forthcoming in greece. excellent that is an question but my major feeling is that it is not greece. they greece vote will come up with some sort of a solution. if there is a fallout of this persuasion -- what will be the spillover effect? we have much bigger economies than greece when it comes to italy and the us verity. this can very well kick in in spain.

if there is a spillover effect that will be the main concern for the market and for that -- we think having gold in your portfolio is a good investment next year. the volatility index has taken a nosedive in the past days but if you have invested in the volatility, you would have made enormous amounts of money -- the internet literally doubled. is hedged against them of malaysian. have a lot -- and immense amount of and that is the reason we think the upside could the two words to 1400 and floor could be between 1000 and 1000. >> gold could be on this year

we have had a crash in oil prices. >> the reason is the 2 million barrels -- extra quantity on the market. this parthat unless of the equation is addressed, gold still has a -- has not reached its goal. message in the past few days -- saudi arabia and other middle eastern oil ministers. that is the political side of what they are playing -- they say we are not going to do that and the u.s. would have to do it how much have you produced during the month of november that is nearly above 9 million barrels per day. is the equivalent of what saudi arabia is producing which is at 84% of the opec

sell. --iously they have concerns they want to maintain the market share and the reason they are not lowering -- they give more discounts of the asian market is the one primary reason we inc. that oil will go down. saudis or opec members will not cut their output. it is a bold call but we think the orting could be a floor. 50 to 55 istime, another area for investing if you want to take a warren buffett kind of you and buy into the trickiest ratio possible. these are entrusting to look at. theway he will filter out

companies is to look at the demand for what they have and what is the production cost and if you kind of put these things under your vision and then you start binding -- that is a good investment. you and a second, we will continue to focus on your team for 2015. ♪ >> a couple of minutes away from

the opening of the european equities market. russia, how will this play out? it is eased a bit? our forecast for 2015, the country will face recession. 0.2% is our forecasts. ift is raised on the fact oil stays between $45 $50 a if it falls below that the country could have a lot more troubles than this. your forecast is for oil to fall within that range. that might well play out. central banks to virgins -- it will be massive isn't it?

how will that play out in the markets. restw do we as investors decision ourselves for the diversions in 2015. >> the way to play it is to stay long on the dollar because the key banks were we are almost certain they will raise straits will back off. the two economies are doing very well however with the housing -- thein the u.s. -- housing market has not revived and has not come to the levels we have seen precrisis when the entire market crashed. rates, now interest the market eventually to the base off of the hotel. they were short of the euro begins european central bank --

they have to use and -- on orthodox method to repeat the alice. >> see you tomorrow night and early. ♪ >> good morning, everybody.

i am guy johnson, standing in for jonathan ferro. we are right here in london, and we are moment away from the start of european equity trading. what are we watching this tuesday morning. let me tell you. a greek political drama. we are two hours away from a key vote that could set the stage .or early elections outlook negative. saudi arabia says it will not cut reduction even if crude gets as low as $20 a barrel. we await crucial u.s. inventory data.

that is out at 3:30 london time. a different story for stocks. the s&p 500 hit another all-time high. that's what we are watching. beginningarkets just to loosen up. >> we are going to be checking on whether we can sustain this christmas rally. a festive feel inequities. could it be a sick -- a sixth day we see gains. we are in the green. record highs, not only on the s&p 500 and the united states but also the dow jones as well. saying, itne quote has become the perfect storm to the upside. europe following up on the