searches -- searches, we consider janet yellen's options in the confidence -- well, the confident ceos will commit m&a in 2015. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live from our world headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, december 23. i am tom keene with brendan .reeley leslie picker is with us as well. top headlines to get us started. >> it is called the center really for reason. rally for reason. s&p 500 clothesling less than one point under its all-time high on monday. >> yes! >> the ruble strengthened as oil prices go up as well. north korea has internet again. it was cut off for nearly 10 hours. interruption comes just days

after the u.s. accused north korea the does the deaf -- devastating attack. experts at anyone in a basement could be behind the attack. the united nations denouncing the attack on sony as the security council held its first-ever meeting on human rights in north korea. greek prime minister samaras failed to get lawmakers back to back, his only for president, huge because he only has one more chance. the vote earlier today in athens, the candidate fell short of the 200 ballots. third and final book next monday. parchment would be dissolved. there would be in early general election. cars, the latest automaker to issue a nationwide tacall because of faultyt aka airbags. iesaffects 140,000 bmw 3 ser from 2004-2006.

no problems from the vehicles have been reported. the federal government has been pushing companies to recall older cars with airbags made by takata. to atave been linked least five deaths. this is unbelievable. an all-out brawl at the end of last night's miami beach bowl. it was miami beach brawl. and his players ran onto the field to celebrate a game ending to seal the 55-45 double-overtime win over brigham young university. thanks quickly degenerated with layers punching and grabbing one another. numerous players from both schools, even some team officials, got into the action. both institutions later released statements expressing regret. there was a major misconduct -- unbelievable. >> the real miracle was said that memphis was there at all. >> look at the swing like i just took. >> the haymaker.

>> those are our top headlines. it is a brawl-free data check. a lot of the equity markets in this hour coming futures up even more, 10 year yield doesn't do much the last couple of days. the euro bears watching, weaker this morning. on to the second screen. near 18,000. the two-year yield is my headline, 70%. point 70%. let's go to the monitors. somewhat obscure. chinese currency, here's their appreciation, 24% since 2005. strength, managed by further strength. here's a little bit of pullback. yuan weaker. >> it is nice to see actual market volatility and a currency

that had been pegged. theabenomics. oil and russia, they continue to dominate, but quietly. use equities advanced yesterday. it was a critical day. a breakout in the two-year yield. robert michael's global chief morganent officer at jp and has a zillion-years the yields. >> speaking of haymakers and brawls, the attention has to be on janet yellen and what she's is going to do in the coming year. as long as they keep interest rates at zero, they can get rid of quantitative easing and yields are going to stay low. you can only keep money in cash earning nothing for so long.

as soon as she begins to normalize the fed funds rate, that is a game changer. >> are you implying what is going on in the fed would we don't see them as they're pulling jerseys overheads, pulling off helmets? >> i wonder what happens with a raise rates for the first time in nine years? >> was all of your study, do you have at your point on the two-year yield where things change? .90?ey change at .70 were area to me looks to be the where clock 1%, where things change -- -- >> 1%, were things change. right. will get it they will be patient. the definition of patient varies. >> thank you so much. i can't imagine how busy you must be. >> it has been a great year. also kind of a beating. >> you will get a break i'm sure. we'll talk about that later in

the hour. what does the dow at 18,000 men for the mergers and acquisition business? >> a lot of deals involve a little bit of equity, which is where there's a lot of equity floating around. the equity markets have been volatile. in the middle of october, things were really on fire. then there is a little dip. there is the malaise decades ago. then up we go. what a breakout it has been. this is the real flesh and adjusted dow. >> what a wonderful decade. bob, when you look back at the m&a over this last year, a lot of companies getting rid of assets that did not make sense. >> one of the stories that has not been to -- talked about too much is the device should your

activity, especially big, big corporate. this guy can pay me a lot more. was at an auction this last week where it made perfect strategic sense, pay twice with the next guy could pay it was still a good deal for him as a body could do with it. it is part of this overall move -- synergy?ft arm says to theyburton is one said there was a two lane dollars in synergy. that was an astronomical amount. just broadly speaking, do you see real synergy with these types of deals? >> certainly, a cost savings is obvious. you have two groups and you can combine -- >> but $2 billion? >> that is part of it, but it is not really just cost synergies.

there are other things you can do. this little company was $600, but there will never be a press release about it. art of this business was a crucial plan and a location in south america. there are lots of things that go on in terms of broader synergies, not just cost. >> i want to get back to the brawl at the fed. everybody has a favorite indicator. you been looking at nominal wage growth. >> when you look like over what janet yellen talked about for the last several years and she is looked at very as measures of strength in the economy, wage growth has been very important to her. now as they have dialed down qe, it is interesting that you haven't seen which growth, you have seen unemployment come down and this growth in the underemployment. she suddenly shifted away from wage growth. as we look at normalizing rates and raising the fed funds target rate him and there is a lot of

speculation that she may not be able to do it until 2016, how can you raise rates if inflation is potentially zero? away from shifted wage inflation. i think it is quite low. that is evidence recovery isn't as robust as some of the headline data. >> i feel like we're looking anywhere we can for which growth, for anecdotal evidence. >> again, you have to look at what drives the fed. i think it is important to her -- what that tells me, she is impatient to get rid of these unconventional tools. it rid of qe is a registry policy, start putting some yield to the front end of the curve. see what happens. a there's only so far she is going to be able to go unless there is more robust -- >> you say -- >> recovery -- >> does that mean a recession is in our future? >> well, that is an interesting point because at the end of fed tightening, you know you're at

the end because they burst whatever bubble is out there and that leads to a big deflationary episode. i think we're in a more interesting dynamic. we are just starting the process of normalizing rates -- or we will, they think, by the middle of next year. the interesting thing to us is the amount of tension liabilities that have to be diffused. i think that is what you see in this week. as we head into year-end, pension funds that are looking to do risk are selling some of the equities, line long dead, long government debt -- buying long debt, long government debt. that is scheming things low. >> are you excited? >> so excited. >> coming up, the chart of the decade. he says he is one of that expense absolutely every thing we should have been looking at since 2003, coming up after the break. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

bloombergrning, surveillance. he runs, he dashes. makers."., "market looking at the markets, continuing, futures up fractionally. i think we can do it. scarlet fu is out, out, out. ms. pickereley and with us this morning. >> the chart of the decade. deutsche bank chief economist. we showed you his chart last week showing how wrong the market been predicting. this time, we will look at the last 10 years of how wrong forecasters have been on the 10 year yield.

we're looking at the dotted lines are the forecast stop the yellow line is the actual yield. bob michaels, so wrong, for so long. >> it just doesn't seem fair, does it? i think everyone comes into the year optimistic. there is going to be some growth. there's going to be some inflationary pressure. seems to be there action too much expectation of that and things moderate. there's been a lot of deleveraging that is gone on over the last three years. >> are the models wrong or is the world different? >> i think the world is a bit different. certainly, the models don't account for quantitative use, zero interest rate policy on a coordinated global scale we're talking about. to me, that is the interesting thing coming into next year some is the fed has dialed away qe, but we're going to see the bank of japan dial it up and we're going to see the ecb pursue it. >> bring the chart of again.

the major research on this is out of vanderbilt diversity and the university of massachusetts. everybody knows this on the street. the row question is, why do we still listen to guys like rob michael -- bob michaels? i get asked this all the time. and the answer is, the answer is the human condition. we need people to frame it for us where we are in economics, finance and investment. >> it also seems like one thing we had not anticipated is the -- we're looking at long-term economics, but that is not driving us. >> let's not forget, that chart being wrong is good for people like me in the bond market. that means there's this constant buying of debt. i talked earlier about pension funds are being forced in. that is not going to end in the

next year or two, that is going to go for the next 10 to 15 years. we have this savings glut globally that is pouring into the front end of the markets. your central banks squeezing out everyone from the front end of the markets. it is not only a flight to fight quality assets, in the last five years we are watched high yield dropped from 20% down to 5% and it is just south of 7% today. it is more demand for bonds. i think that has more to do with deleveraging. it is more about the savings glut demographics and those kinds of things. >> what about the fed haven't we priced into bonds? is the market not expecting for 2015? >> i think people are expecting the fed to be fairly sanguine, which is, you know, to normalize a very careful pace. there were expectations it would not start until the later half of this year. and people forgot that when

yellen first talked about considerable period of time, she -- itix months after the puts us in april. rizzoli, she indicated again -- recently, she indicated it again. >> that makes or deals go. do you have a window or you're working as hard as you can get you think the window is going to close sometime next year? >> i don't think so. it is more about capital availability. >> rate is not that important. >> it is important, but it translates into the premium, the multiple that will be paid. multiples have been very high. if rates were to spike, it would make a difference. as an gradual increase -- >> so your experience is the rate of change of the yield move is more important in a critical feature, going to get the money? >> that's right. the money is unbelievably wonderful. there are oceans.

>> oceans of capital. >> endless buckets. , are yousek disappointed in the field analysis that has been wrong for so long? >> i don't know. it is very hard to see inset are right in front of your face. write a whole oil revolution. your berdych about five years ago? -- like the whole oil revolution. who predicted that five years ago? is very hard. you do your best and it comes out when it comes out. >> what happened with you two? leslie withtching our ties. did you not get the memo? >> i wore a tie, is that not enough for you? >> i called this morning. day.n jose shark's that is a really cool chart. >> it is a great chart.

thank you so much. in our next hour, a window into the u.s. economy for next year, the mystery of what will consumption do next year. our twitter question speaks of consumption. are you done with your holiday shopping? we haven't started. are you so done with your holiday shopping? we say good morning, it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." for scarletr is in fu. renting greeley with us as well.

looking at the u.s. markets, down near 18,000. we have to look abroad as well. how about a morning must-read on russia? i was a smart morning note. former finance minister believes -- gartman in bold caps off says, don't either ruble. robert michael with us. >> i'm looking at news on the bloomberg terminal from 6:00 this morning. there is a bill just push through russian parliament that depositow the federal insurance agency to ask a take a stake in a bank before goes through bankruptcy. >> trust bank in moscow when under to the tune of half a billion.

do you and your firm expect more failures? >> within russia? >> yet, within russia. >> there has to be some. we look at the problems they're facing with energy and a problem with the ruble, there's going to be some shakeout. you're beginning to see policy response from everywhere. certainly, from within russia. there's also talk of the chinese extending an olive branch, giving credit. >> can they do any response short of pulling out of ukraine? it seems like all of the actions are monetary measures, won't get it done. >> that is a pretty good point, but it is interesting that how credit and liquidity that come into the system can stabilize things. i would watch what the chinese do. >> how can they assist mr. putin when there overnight rates are high double digits? what can the chinese due to

bring the inner market rate down in the russian system? >> they can extend credit. >> massive swap credit. -- you haveextend to step back and say, who does it and if it to see russia unravel? is certainly wouldn't benefit the chinese. be careful about extrapolating anything out that everything is in a death spiral in russia. i think you are seeing people step up. >> the chinese have an incentive. one thing that been driving awards for a long time, to be reserve currency. they are a chance to do this right now with russia. >> yeah, i think they do. it is something they're striving for. they've got their own problems. there's been overinvestment a property, trying to rein in the shadow banking system, seeing growth slowdown. there china maintain 7% growth. everything is not smooth sailing in china, either. hasrofusek robert profusek,

jones tasting a shift in business dealings in russia? >> it is been slow. a couple of years ago it was very, very active. it has been slow. capital is not moving. >> robert profusek with jones day and bob michael with us as well. , we mentioned, still stronger, 54.18. it may be stronger for all the wrong reasons. coming up, mergers and acquisitions in 2015. stay with us, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning. maybe we will see the intraday today. leslie picker with me in for scarlet fu and brendan greeley is here with our top headlines. >> in new york, mayor bill de blasio was trying to mend fences with police officers who say he is fostered in a barman to let a shooting deaths of two officers over the weekend. everyone across asideectrum to put protests, put aside

demonstrations until these funerals are passed. let's focus just on these families and what they have lost. i think that is the right way to try and build toward a more unified and decent city. >> the mayor is strong public opposition from the nypd. officers turned their back on him in a week in news conference in a police union official has said he has blood on his hands. facebook shareholders are getting an early christmas present. shares advanced 2%. that is the stoxx highest price since its 2012 ipo. ceo mark zuckerberg billion dollar acquisition of instagram has paid off. analysts at the photo sharing app is worth 35 billion dollars. facebook has jumped 49% in 2014. ♪ one of rock music's most recognizable voices is silent.

reader singer joe caulker died yesterday in his home in colorado. -- joe cocker. he scored his singles like " being all right" and "you are so beautiful." he died of young cancer. he was 70 years old. >> the mill hill club and cape cod, the chops were there. forget about all the gyrations and speaks on "saturday night live." >> i think my favorite thing was "bye-bye blackbird." he traded it is something gorgeous. >> joe cocker at 70 years old. thert profusek, billing by 10 minute interval. will billmr. profusek by the syllable. his telephone refuses to stop ringing. next are could, should, and will

be a bang up job for mergers. what is different from this fruit -- frenzy from previous frenzies? >> the last frenzy, if you will, with the 2006-2007 private equity. it was a really strategic. this is different. it is fundamentally strategic. ofre is a fair amount private equity, but not on a percentage basis. this is about capital redeployment and return on capital. >> to me as an amateur, the heller brayton -- halliburton -- hughes deal signaled something else. we see further collapse in oil. our you going to be robert oil baron profusek? >> there is going to be a lot of shotgun weddings in the oil patch. no doubt about it. >> could you write that down? >> i'm not writing that down. >> that is the quote of the day.

2014other big theme from with these tax efficient transactions we saw, the inversion grace, some cash-rich split offs with the buffet deal. what do you expect for 2015 and terms of doing things for tax efficiently? i number is the mayor has said she will dispose of her yahoo! stake in alibaba in a tax efficient way. do you expect this trend to continue? >> i only have one observation about the world right now, and it is capital efficiency. if you have two pieces, to businesses under one corporate umbrella and it is not traded perfectly because the market doesn't get -- separating them is better. the market should get a perfectly, but never does. the alibaba state, everybody is talking about it. it is not easy to spin off its stock as opposed to a business as a tax matter, but there's a lot of that. it goes back to capital

allocation. >> when we talk about financing for these deals, we're focused so far on the low rates but not just the rates, the liquidity is the terms, right? >> we have kind of gone to covenant zero in terms of the way the bond market is on this stuff, and with the high-yield market getting rockier, but it is plentiful. my point. cfo has tohat every act. is there a desperation that the yield, damage is going to close and so from where you sit in strategy and advice on fixed income, you need to advise the cfo to get it going in q1? >> i think there is some concern that this actually may be the year yields go up, despite the chart. there some pressure. bob and i were talking about

this earlier, when you look at some of the m&a going on, he reminds me a lot of the deleveraging we're seeing across, particularly, the banking industry. if you have assets with a return on capital is low, some of deals will take it and look to make it more efficient and streamlined. for me, the most interesting thing is how these transactions are being financed. right now, we're not seeing the issues we saw in two thousand 6, 2007. and we spent a lot of time covenantt the -- zero doesn't really bother me. when you see some of the financial engineering structures, things creep into the market, then you know -- >> excuse me, what is that? >> what is zero covenant? >> massive jargon alert. >> covenant -- no real covenants and the debt transaction. >> just a phone call.

what was the other one? pit toggles were one of the creations of financial engineering. it is payment in kind. you're not really getting cash out of a coupon payment, they're just giving you -- >> ok, let me understand what is going on -- >> they toggle back-and-forth between cash and security. >> what is going on this year, conditions have been so good that it is financing, the way they teach it to nba's? >> good way to put it. 5.6 percent debt. they can do another debt transaction along with another seven under can jillion the cap stocks. >> a lot that i speak with of transactions,ity they tell me some of the biggest drivers of their business next year is going to be equity financing for m&a transactions. are you seeing evidence of that? >> may be. there is some equity component

and it goes by to what we were talking about, this is an financial engineering. pit toggles. any it is about the basic of the business. iou the money, i will pay this interest, and i don't have to stretch to do it. there could be some equity. probably more equity rising itizingtions -- equ transactions. companies are still buying back equity. >> i did not know this. andn local -- exxon mobil apple. i thought they were doing this thing. they're not even close. apple has just blown by. >> i was going to point out in the carlyle hotel on january 31, tom and i will be playing. we will be backing up on base. we're called the pit toggles. >> i will be there.

i will be singing. you will be on bass and tom on the drums. >> people are desperate to figure out what to buy for their spouses at the last minute. jewelry seems to be a failsafe option. retail across the board is shaky, but bling is bringing and some money. that is our twitter question of the day. are you done with your holiday shopping? tweet us. we will talk about jewelry and the next block. ♪

>> this is>> "bloomberg surveillance." time to turn off the tv set at home -- and i mean that. at home, turn off the tv set. here's printing grilli. >> what you smell in the air is the acrid tinge of men panicking. we are desperately trying to figure out what we can get in the last minute, one thing that men ultimately end up getting is jewelry. jewelry sales are doing really well. that sector has been performing better than retail. >> according to mastercard advisors, the spending pulse tracker they do, we've seen 21 straight months of increases in jewelry sales according to sarah

quinlan, the executive vice president over there and helps track this stuff. we've seenort says annual growth over the past five years of 3.7%, and the size of the market is now about every be $6 billion. that is just jewelry stores, does not account for online or jewelry stores or jewelry sales stores.tment projected 2.3 percent growth over the next five years. but it is really spread out. >> what is driving that? do you buy jewelry when you cannot afford a vacation or house or a car? >> yes. the average transaction, $2600. i was really surprised by that. there's been honest a doubling from year ago in these numbers as people feel more confident in the economy. they're sort of a permanence to jewelry there is into other types of consumer goods. so she said the view is, this is something you can potentially

pass on. it is not something that is going away. it is not something that will go out of fashion if you are buying the right thing. that is part of it. we talked a lot about the experiential story. she continues -- she considers -- >> is that a jargon alert? >> that is storytelling, tom. >> it is a normal word. >> are you just watching the gold price? >> i think it's another bit of anecdotal evidence that things are getting better. talking, i was wondering, with energy prices down where they are, that is more disposable income that has gone into consumer's pockets? it is stimulus. it is a tax cut that is going into the hands of people who spend. >> let's have brendan spend some money. is -- i don't know

what it is. up with pick that change i find in the couch cushions at home. >> there it is. >> no worries. >> i walked into tiffany's and a woman tell me it comes in and they go out and people buy these like three and four at a time. >> i wish you guys could hear in overtrol room the sighs this bracelet. we're not talking about tiffany's -- >> we're talking partly about tiffany, but what is so fascinating about the jewelry business, you also saw on this green there are more than 60,000 separate jewelry businesses in the united states. so tiffany is action is smaller than signet, which now owns jar and its namesake

stores. but the onlyed account for one quarter of the whole market. >> are you sharpening your pencil right now, writing down some numbers? >> retail in general, there's going to be a lot of activity. >> a cheap bracelet, does it work? diamonds or without diamonds? >> go big or go home. >> go away, julie. >> our photo editor has done amazing work looking back at photos of the year. the date is october 23. this is a u.s. airstrike. what is amazing, you can actually see a human being in the lower right corner. we assume that is an islamic militant. we hope. cityi was a strategic bought over on the turkish syrian border. they forced thousands to flee into turkey for safety. forcesorkers and u.s.

have pushed isis back in recent weeks. the number two photo, the story really consumed our summer. such an awful thing to look at and think about. this is october 10, monroe via -- monrovia, a woman has died of ebola. her sister is mourneing her. when the disease got into the city, they did not know how to contain it. >> is is still out of control? >> it is. it has dropped out of the headlines, but the total death toll according to the cdc is 7300 people. that horror is not over. number one photo, october 28. virginia. rocket that antaris exploded at 6:22. 15 seconds after liftoff. tom, this broke your heart. >> no, it was just a really interesting year for her not

ask. the r ryan was a big success. this sobered everybody up. then you had the tragedy sir richard faced with the test pilots. it was a sporting year for anding men and women in air also unmanned vehicles as well. coming up, neil dutta will join us as the guest host. the american economy. all of a sudden, janet yellen has no slack to worry. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

twittermorning, our question of the day -- there is no charge. ouroff today, the answer to twitter question. here is brendan greeley. >> trench power company admitting to making bribes and will pay 772 million dollar fine to in the u.s. investigation. that is the largest criminal penalty paid to the justice department. they paid more than 75 nine dollars in bribes to win

billions of projects from egypt and saudi arabia and elsewhere. more money for investors burned by bernard madoff. one a of the groups the court to approve another $322 million distribution for suburban mccartt said that would bring the total return so far to $7.2 billion. the ponzi scheme cost investors more than $17 billion altogether. astter shares are up as much 4% after an analyst predicts ceo costello won't last another year. the stock has been sliding in recent months, dropping your 52 week low. those are your top headlines. >> he is been on a number of times. sharp, sharp, sharp on twitter and facebook and trying to figure out how twitter gets it done next year. the fed will be busy. the plot thickens. we have the russian and equity surging. what does janet yellen do?

robert michael with us. let's bring up the two-year yield. it is a breakout yield. there is .50%. we've been turning along. what does the higher yield signal? >> it signals the fed is feeling good about the durability of the recovery. they're not afraid to normalize the fed funds rate. they would like to get to at least 2%, which if they are targeting inflation, that is the zero real fed funds rate. we talked about this earlier. it is about 1% making it interesting for all markets because you have a place to hide and earn something. >> bring in the target rate. we forget about this chart. we used to show it all the time. there is the zero. there we are for years and years and years and years. zero bond. where does the jpmorgan team and the rest, when do they think it will actually raise the rate? >> the middle of the year. . >> consensus?

based on her recent comments, if you guys tilted one way or the other, he would probably go a bit earlier, april, something like that. -- do youand increase and any credence, that it doesn't allow enough room? >> it certainly feels low in the current environment, but i think it is actually a fairly rational level. we dealing with a lot of demographics and what we talked about earlier, so it feels painful. but if we have some deleveraging that occurs over the next few years, and we have a more normal recovery and we get all of these unconventional tools out of the system, it is quite possible that they will begin with inflation above 2%. >> is it any chance of deflation, given what we're seeing with commodity prices today? >> there is a very real chance of deflation. >> in the united states?

>> i don't think so. yet the tax cut that is come from energy prices, but europe is a very different game. japan continues to struggle. but there are a lot of -- >> within the deflation, and one of the quotes of bill gross were he said, we're going to have financial repression to the end of the decade, when do retirees and savers get a break? all of the gains are going to bob profusek and the m&a world, the corporate world, none are going to our many viewers that watch. >> they're going to get a break. >> wihen? >> when the fed lifts rates. >> profusek is going, yeah, right. profit in the a asset class and put it into cash, the best you're doing is zero. if you are in europe, you are being charged to keep it in cash. suddenly, if the fed can get to

one plus percent, then you can take some profits, leave it in cash, and generate a return. i think that makes for much or interesting dynamic. >> but you see a soft landing in a way the qe are backing out of now, more or less equals the sum of the qb of the ecb imaging -- bank of japan. >> they were doing $85 billion a month. when you look at what japan is expected to do and when the ecb enters the fray, they're going to total $100 billion. it could actually be excessive. >> bob michael, thank you for being with us. we appreciate you coming by giving the schedule you have. i love this. floored that will go on your tombstone. >> balderdash. let's do a forex report.

we make note of a weaker as well. stay with us. neil dutta, next. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> the bank of russia ails out a

small bank as gluten pose -- putin's russia faces a global crisis. and we consider federal reserve options. there are two shopping days before christmas. maybe russian submariners will surface. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." world live from our headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, december 23. i am tom keene. joining me brendan greeley and leslie picker. >> it is called a rally for a reason. markets are surging higher with the s&p 500 closing less than one point under it all-time high monday. the ruble strengthens for the third day against the dollar as oil prices are going up. north korea has that internet again after being cut off for nearly 10 hours. the interesting comes just days

after the u.s. accused north korea of a cyber attack against sony, and president obama promised a responsible set meanwhile, the united nations denounced the attack on sony as the security council heard it's -- held its first ever meeting on human rights. the greek prime minister failed his second attempt to get lawmakers to back his nominee for president. candidate was short of the required 200 votes. parliament will be dissolved prompting the calling of early elections. i say. they become the latest automaker to issue a nationwide recall because of airbags. the takata airbags. the decision affects 140 thousand bmw cars made from 2004 until 2006.

no problems with bmw vehicles have an reported. the federal government has pushed, a curse to recall older vehicles with airbags made by takata. those airbags have been linked to at least five deaths. of it is a brawl at the end last night's first-ever miami beach bowl. the fight began after memphis players were not on the field to celebrate a game ending interception, 55-48, double overtime win over brigham young. brawled withhey players punching and grabbing one another, even some team officials got into the action, both institutions later released statements professing their profound regret, although they will go to the ball again next year if they get a chance because they make a ton of money. a haymaker and a sucker punch at the same time. >> let's do a data check right

now. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. down near again, 18,000, so much for a single-digit year. $55.93.under 56, under president putin, russia clearly facing a financial crisis. the bank goes belly up overnight. putin, merkel -- they play phone tag except they are barely on speaking terms. our international correspondent begins asls chris of shopping in berlin. the dialogue between moscow and berlin -- it is not happening. a late not flunk all between merkel, sarkozy, , and putin.nko the hardline,ting

the almost good cop, bad cop, at least in the case of the german government. walterhat frank steinmeyer has to say. he has in making until a very common's about what sanctions are doing to russia. >> brendan, you lived in germany, frame angela merkel's in this. been wondering about russian state media, excepting merkel as a negotiator, and they have turned against her, they are painting her as an enemy now. >> yeah, look, that clearly is a sign from the kremlin that they are less than pleased with the in beingel has played a leader for sanctions. that is not terribly surprising. russian state media, one important note on the potential cease-fire and another round of talks in minsk, the rebel groups and rebel leadership will attend the threat -- the next round of

peace talks. they start in minsk tomorrow, tom, they restart again by the 26, bring a top hat -- minsk is cold. anders one will have later on ending our who will help us understand what is going on in eastern europe, and we all know berlin is the capital of europe. what is the level of nervousness right now all of these little, sorties that have been flying over airspace, these little pinprick attempts by russia to annoy europe? there is a report today that russia fighters are not respecting international airspace is, they are flying with their transponders up is that most of the debate and conversation in berlin has to do with these anti-islamic protests that are taking place every monday. they have grown from 15,000 to

17,005 hundred. that is what most of become efficient in germany is today. what is germany's relationship with these refugees? it is an important conversation, and it is ongoing. fromns nichols, thank you berlin. neil dutta is our guest host, head of the breathless macro research, and has been genius this year. the renaissance macro research and has been genius this year. is the stock market anticipating your call on the economy? >> i have no idea. [laughter] >> is going to the along our, neil. market is the stock basically discounting stronger growth. i think it is expecting that growth to continue. i think the risk for the equity fed has to go the more aggressively than it is currently price into forwards markets. that is going to create

certainly some volatility for equity markets. it will be a good year for seeorate earnings, but i do a scenario where the pe multiple can come in. >> let me ask you a question. on the last hour, we talked to a strategist who goes to-year 7038 is a higher yield. as an economist, what does that signal to you? the market is out in front. in, fedarket is pricing tightening next year. the longer end of the curve -- how much do they go? how many meetings do they go? basisis points or 25 point a meeting, every other meeting? that creates more uncertainty for the long end of the treasury curve, and we know the return premium on a 10-year, which is basically everything other than growth innovation -- than growth and inflation is driving. >> have you seen this before? >> we saw it ready for the taper tantrum of 2013.

my advice to investors is to position for the sectors that outperform during the taper tantrum, and if we get us deepening of the yield curve that i do expect, that is going to be good for the financial industry. isthe difference in yields slack. janetcasually referred to yellen as a dove for all of the work she is done to flatten that curve that thomas talking about, but you see her as a standard issue central banker. >> yeah, i do not see her as a caricature that she is an uber dove that she will remake the fed in a paul krugman-like image. she is a fairly traditional central banker. you know how i know? her fed so herself and conference -- monetary policy of long legs, it is important for the fed to be forward-looking. someone who was waiting to see inflation in 2% to raise rates does not say those kinds of things. >> what is going on with the statement is, as you have said, garbled was your word, and you

take meaning and solace from the press conference? >> i think that it's white is important for the fed to comedic -- that is why it is important for the fed to communicate. look, the economy has by all measures done better over the last several years. this is a multiyear pro cess. and the fed despite its improvement in the data has the same forward guidance in place now for 2.5 years. >> check this out on bloomberg radio plus, on your app but itunes and android, the yield curve has come in. we are flattened way away from recession -- we are nowhere near that, and you say forget about it. we will get a steeper yield curve with a good and healthy economy. >> that flattening is primarily driven by a declining term premium, and that is a function of all sorts of things, weaker

global growth, geopolitical ofcerns, an undue amount faith in the fed's forward guidance. a lot of people in the market think hell or high water the fed is going to go sometime in the 2015 angle very gradually once they do, and i do not think they do. >> do we keep with 2000 a month nonfarm payrolls/ ? >> > at least for the next year. >> coming up, an important conversation -- truly one of the great western watchers of russia, we are bringing you and aslund of the peterson institute on the future of vladimir putin stay with us worldwide, "bloomberg surveillance," good morning. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." brendan greeley, leslie picker in for scarlet fu. leslie will be enjoying all of february reporting from the cayman islands on alibaba. >> this is actually hong kong, tom. my morning must-read comes from charles lee, the chief executive of the hong kong exchange, and he wrote a unique note to santa, ac suite executive writing a note to santa, and his exchange alibaba listed.

they did not get alibaba because they have strict corporate governance. a special dear santa, guest was planning to come to stay with us, but he is excited to have a party is someone else's house instead. he was asking for some pretty major reservations to make room for his arrival, and we just could not change our house that fundamentally without consulting everyone in the neighborhood. what he is talking about is the renovations at the hong kong exchange are that partnership structure that alibaba has, that ability to nominate a select group of individuals that made it certain decisions that do not have the same powers as the rest of common shareholders. positions --f provisions are not allowed in hong kong. that is what you see a lot of tech companies coming to us here in the u.s. are seeing is the flip side of the purpose that we saw in hong kong. the protests were saying we have a certain way of doing democracy

here and we want to hold onto it. what he is saying is we have a certain way of giving businesses from being too cozy with the government here. we would like to hold on to that as well. >> exactly. the u.s. has such strict regulations committed other places in the world, not so much on the capital markets and exchange fronts. a lot of foreign companies are drawn here because of our laxer rules. >> what did you learn from the first conference call from ali baba? -- alibaba? buildingre set on their growth in their businesses. they are set to diversify the types of businesses they want to be into. i have been watching the vice-chairman of alibaba. >> he is the one running it. >> he has a strong foothold in silicon valley and is not looking to stop that. >> do they garner a greater trust out of that first conference call? >> i think they did garner a better trust.

skyrocket. those that said, the main issues we talked about during the ipo did not go away. >> cayman islands in february? >> absolutely. >> did you has to go to caracas or havana? santiago to get the proper summer treatment of february. our twitter question of the day -- are you done with your holiday shopping? that is out @bsurveillance. good morning. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. euro weaker, we may get a 121 handle today, that is important watching that as we watched oil stabilize. west texas $56.06 a barrel. >> new york mayor bill de blasio tries to mend fences with the police officers. they say he has fostered an environment that led to the

shooting death of two officers over the weekend. the mayor says it has come to focus on the families of the fallen men. >> i am at the everyone, and this is across the spectrum, to put aside protests, put aside demonstrations until these funerals are passed, let's focus and on these families what they have lost. i think that is the right way to try to build toward a more unified and decent city. drying publics opposition from the nypd. officers turned their backs on him at a weekend news conference and a policing official says he has blood on his hands. alibaba seven seriously clean house before its ipo earlier this year removing 90 million listings for good that may have breached intellectual property rights. that $161id us million since early 2013 to block counterfeit product and boost consumer protections. twitter shares are up as much as 4% after an analyst predicts ceo

dick costolo will not last another year. the socialeculated media company's chief is on the way out. shares closed at $38.43. >> brendan, i want to note this is out of our asian desk john dean, iron ore goes to a new low. >> when we look at emerging markets come a gives us another chance to distinction between commodities producers and commodities importers. >> and gold rolling over. it is all a swirl of the new mediocre. >> it does feel like all of those commodity prices -- you are looking at the price of iron ore, it is all going to china. that to me reads also a slowdown in construction in china. >> let's look again at the attention of the moment away from china and iron ore. vladimir putin and joined the .irst bank bailout the $1.5 billion bailout is

small change, but it signals a financial crisis that is russia. anders aslund is one of the great watchers of all things russia. he knows mr. putin stands alone words --. athens' what has changed for vladimir putin? >> as you have seen, tom, the markets are incomplete turmoil. even the first central bank in the government are not posting the big state exporters to exchange their hard currencies. volatility,g lost which the ruble is collaborating on. movesare starting to see supporting other banks as well. do you think there are backroom conversations going on a lot like what is happening in the u.s. in 2007 just on how to deal with this? >> the russians are used to take

care of the banks, so they have all of the institutions, or you can see in this case, that they have acted resolutely. seen agest banks have certain but not big run on the and they will be run on the currency. these things are likely to get worse rather than better. >> what about the relationship with china here? it may be russia's last hope at this point. what is i due to u.s.-china relations? i do not want to exaggerate the russia-china relationship. china is open now, two months ago, a swap line of the $24 billion, which is substantial money, but it is not enough to really change the situation for russia. the trade is big, but russia says the commodities to china are falling in value.

china is everywhere selling a lot of manufacturers to russia, so russia become a junior partner to china rather than being a junior partner to the united states. there anything the russian central bank or the finance ministry can do to fix this, or is this simply a matter of pulling out of ukraine? >> indeed i think the only thing that can be done to change this is to ease the financial sanctions, which requires that russia pulls out of eastern ukraine. what the central bank can do if they can stabilize the decline of the ruble. is they what we see ruble exchange rate going parallel, now they have just become one. , whattically, dr. aslund is the independence of the russian central bank? >> of course, president putin controls all institutions in there is no

unnecessary independence of the central bank. having said that, the russian has functioned like stovepipes, which gives a central autonomy to the central bank, and is quite professional. >> anders, does angela merkel have any purchase at all with vladimir putin, or do we make too much out of that relationship? >> well, i think you said it here before the program, that after the long meeting, four-hour meeting that she had the d-20ident putin, meeting, it looks like they left one another in disgust, and they had little contact after that. the russian television as part of a big propaganda campaign against her. >> thank you very much.

stick around, we haven't taking a look at eastern europe for stock we will look north any to sweden. -- one of the great debates of the u.s. economy, that will be our theme. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, everyone. for scarletring in fu. brendan greeley also here. >> shares advanced 2% to close at $81.45.

had made ackerberg billion-dollar acquisition of instagram. it has paid off. city group analysts said the photo app is worth $35 billion. the french power company as admitted to paying bribes. -- the french power company has admitted to paying bribes and will pay a record $772 million. they paid bribes to win millions in egypt, saudi arabia, and elsewhere. the pope is coming out of his cardinals, accusing them of using their positions to seek power and money. pope francis made the comments in what is usually a cheerful christmas greeting. you listen to 15 -- he listed 15 ailments. the cardinals were not happy.

they barely applauded at the end of the speech. it appears to be in a reaction in two weeks during pope benedict's tenure. >> hypocrisy, greed? sounds like our 5:00 a.m. meeting. >> i know nothing. >> oh, please, where is gregory peck? >> russian jets aren't baltic in all take are airspace. sweden's primus or had visited bloomberg and was explicit about the country's response. >> it is not ok to go into our territory illegally. if that happens, we will use our military capacity. anders, you take a 300 year view with russia, does it worry you that sweden is considering joining nato? that is a pretty big deal. >> for the first time, we are

seeing there is a popular majority in sweden for joining are, and the responses generally in favor. you justeman showed, the social democratic party, is not ready to do that yet. sweden is not about to do this in, but the prime minister the last few days said he does not think this government should join nato, but the next one should. >> you were just back home in sweden talking to people there? do we to make too much of the russian submarine incident? theyere is clear evidence have them out in the arco blago -- in tharchipelago.

we are also seeing something we have not seen in a long time in both finland and sweden -- an increase in the amount of money paid out of the budget board the defense bill. it has not happened in a long time, right? sayeah, but you can also all european defenses have fallen to lows, so this was something that an ugly would have to happen. >> -- that inevitably would have to happen. >> is mr. putin actually ache was active of scandinavia or baltic acreage like he is in ukraine? >> no, i think this is just poking his nose into everything and seeing what is your reaction. i don't think we can make too much of it. >> i wonder real quick whether we are missing a larger story when we talk about this.

we just and the last block talked about marches in germany, and one of the biggest problems the current government in sweden has is the concerns about immigration. is that a bigger story right now in sweden? >> yeah, of course, the government,-right government septemberction in because about 7% move from the conservatives to the far right sweden democrats, and the one big issue is immigration. sweden takes about 1% of the population in political refugees each year, and many people think that is too much. we cannot assimilate that many people. your. anders aslund, thank so much from the peterson institute, the one person to talk to about a wide swath of the world from the balkans to the baltic. >> you do not expect the swedish currency to weaken against the euro.

it has not been a good year for sweden, am i right? >> economically it is a completely different story. right now the story for me is the possibility of a military buildup, tom. witht's do a data check the equity markets up as we look at out 18,000. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. with me, leslie picker in for scarlet fu comment here as well brendan greeley. this matters now to our guest host, neil dutta, it also matters to each and every viewer. when and how will wages go up yet the it is without question the mystery of the recent years. why are corporations getting all the gains of gdp? why can't labor get its fair share. it is not so much of they have been greedy. it is not like corporations have them in paying -- >> ok, i will go with that. >> ultimately, the laws of supply and demand in the labor market in america not been

repealed, so as the unemployment rate continues to come down, i believe you will see upward pressure on wages. it is important to remember that the fed took out their characterization on the labor market being significantly underutilized in october, even with this popular average hourly earnings measure being stuck at 2%, so it tells you that the market fixation on the number -- it is sort of misplaced. things like the employment cost index are shown -- >> are doing better than average. >> right. there are regular commission payments, bonuses, things that are not factor -- and there are people quitting her job. >> i do not hear enough about the new globalization. is it new, more silent, pernicious globalization? think globalization like a thing -- i mean, it brings benefits and cost. i think the benefits of the macroeconomy are on positive, however, you know, folks at the lower end of the sort of labor

story -- they are going to be under more pressure. >> neil, despite what we see with wages, confidence is still increasing. where does that derive from? is that more from the equity markets, it are the equity markets based on the u.s. economy? >> in the u.s., it is a simple formula for consumer confidence -- it is jobs, gas, stuff. >> so just having a job? >> absolutely. there are more people working, working longer, and earning money. that means the aggregate income to the private economy in america is growing i think something like 5% to 6% right now. that is a pretty healthy number. if you look at things like weekly earnings, these are all moving in the right direction. as the employment rate continues to fall, we are in the zone right now for wages to continue to pick up. i would not be surprised to see a 3%, 3.5% by this time next year. >> i want to point out that neil

dutta is one of my favorite chart makers. i am not sure how well it plays, i can talk through it, but he has basically drawn a huge volatility and a lot of the prices all the way back to 1986 and ask the question -- how much do commodities bleed into core? his answer -- very little. you can see core inflation just slowly dribbling down there. when we talk a lot swings in the gas price and look at inflation, do i understand correctly that long-term there is no effect? is zero.rrelation at the end of the day, inflation comes down to the household budget constraints. it is different when commodity prices are falling and wages are declining as opposed to commodity prices declining and wages rising and employment rising. that means in the second scenario people will take the otherll, spend it in places, driving up the prices for those goods and services. now arenings right accelerating, so the household budget constraints, you know, in

shifting upms is into the right, and anyone who says differently is out of their mind. >> when i look at this, i look at a fedex it can be overcome by events. do you -- at a fed that can be overcome by events. do you worry that janet yellen and the fed can be overcome by the market data this year? >> in some respects, i think they want the market to be overcome by the data. they are slowly moving in that direction. the markets do not really believe them, and i do not blame in markets because the fed has kept the same guidance in place even though the data has improved substantially over that time. remember, before they had this at 6.5%, theyate had calendar got in, and what was it -- at least through mid-2015. they did not take it out of a hat. i think there is too much confidence in the stability of the said's monetary policy.

>> neil dutta with renaissance macro research. two days to go on shopping. are you done with your holiday shopping? have you started your holiday shopping? [laughter] ♪

>> we welcome you to new york

city. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom. scarlet fu began her christmas shopping two days ago. she is exhausted. leslie picker is in. brendan greeley, a morning must read. ert -- i actually use the shorter version of the biography as a way to get to sleep at night. what he wrote this morning about george osborne and the u.k. >> it sounds like classic lord skidelsky. i have not read all of the

volumes. >> neil dutta, are we accidental keynesians no matter what we do? >> there is also a certain amount of keynesianism that voters will tolerate, let's not to the germanface edition of "general theory," and what is said. >> oh, please, let us not forget. >> he said the polities in his book would work better for a totalitarian state. is that what we want? >> that is 1936. let's bring this forward to the arts debate between paul krugman and john cochran -- they totally disagree here, and everybody in one of the great themes this year is where is the info structure spending? structure spending a keynesian program or just common sense? >> i think it is common sense. the founding fathers did give the government the right to build coastal roads. -- postal roads.

i am just playing devil's advocate here. of the big problems i think in economics, and this is financial, not academic, if you can, cigarette, it is like supreme court cases. i can to you was someone is going to say about a certain subject before it even comes out of her mouth. >> absolutely. feels like freshwater economists and saltwater economists figuring out who gets the credit for the u.s. and u.k. ofpaul krugman, who is one the most respected -- and i read him all the time -- he wrote a blog post called jean-claude yellen recently saying that the fed is going to make a policy mistake by raising rates next year, but he also believes that my third policy has almost no effect at the zero lower bound. the new fed, the new presidents coming in? >> they take on a more dovish bent. >> a more krugman bent.

>> yes. who is had to adjust more, the hawks or the doves? it has been the doves because the economy has melted their face off. >> neil dutta with us, renaissance macro advisors. we will talk about the heart of the economy this retail season, which is of course consumption. twitter question -- are you done with your holiday shopping? it is 70% off @bsurveillance. good morning. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." program, robert kaplan. we love having him on from hbs. we will talk about leadership practices into 2015. it is gentle, it is there, but with futures up two, now up down -- 18,000t going into the markets. here is top headlines with brendan greeley. >> the greek prime minister samaras failed. he has one more chance at a vote today, america's candidate was short of the

required 200. sales in the final vote next monday, parliament will be resolved and they will ave to call an early vote. says -- would be the return to $7.2 billion, made cost ponzi scheme investors more than $17 billion altogether. >> ♪ by with a little help from my friends ♪ >> one of rock music's most recognizable voices falls silent. singer joe caulker died yesterday at his home in colorado. . yesterdayoe cocker at his home in colorado. hit singles like "feeling all right" and

"you are so beautiful." he was 70 years old. and bothtwo americas, will shop until they drop and this holiday season, but then what, we focus on like friday on panic saturday, as the british call it? another contrived moment, but what of that core of our american economy, conception for 2015. >neil dutta giving us optimistic expressions this hour. what will be a resilient american consumer? steve roach satyr your chair a number of weeks ago and said the consumer does not look all that good, and then i read any given research note of an optimist, they disagree with mr. roach. >> when was he sitting in the chair -- in 2008? >> a few weeks ago. >> i could have sworn he said that in 2008. >> where is the american consumer? >> the gas prices are lower,

incomes are rising, differ leveraging -- deleveraging is over. >> we are now three cycles -- we are used to it. >> deleveraging is the overwhelming driver. the fact that it is slowing down or completely over, that means spending relative to income is going to accelerate. >> is leveraging over or are housing prices recovering? consumersver because appetite is picking up. revolving credit growth is excel or income is so revolving credit income, consumer balance sheets and a better place, gasoline prices -- consumer sentiment is up, expectations are rising. consumer spending has been growing in line with the overall economy now for the last five years. at a minimum, i think that is going to continue, which means at least 3%, but i think there is enough evidence to suggest that consumer spending most of my neutral factor to a --

>> oil prices have been a tail wind, but gary shilling writes this morning and "bloomberg news" that distress from lower oil prices could upset the disruption -- could upset the consumption. what is your take? macroeconomy, there are winners and losers. oil producers are going to have a more challenging go of things. no one is denying that. in the u.s., there are more consumers of oil. .2%.have seen a a 3-1.8 becomes never the driver of what we had seen over the last three years anyway. that has been a steady tailwind than anything else. brennan, nominal gdp at 4.3%,

and the idea is with inflation that picks up a little bit, and that gets the animal spirit going. >> speaking of animal spirit, one thing we keep asking on "surveillance" is why is the u.s. economy levitating over the rest of the world, and it sounds like your answer is americans buy stuff. >> we set the productivity frontier for the rest of the world. back it has been the case and continues to be the case, and most of these other emerging markets a did so well from 2002 until 2007, did they really innovate themselves or emulate the productivity that america already set. >> you make this sound so obvious. is this the best was this your call two years ago? >> yes, that is what he is on. neil was way out front. he was like -- excuse me, bernanke is getting this right. >> the u.s. is a relatively closed economy. x war , but still fundamentally we are a relatively closed economy. that means dollar movements,

global economic events, they have relatively muted impacts on u.s. growth. so i think most of what has gone leveraging has slowed, fiscal policy have gone from title to neutral. >> i just told everyone you are a genius -- what have you been most wrong on this year? >> housing. i thought it would be a little bit better. in lending standards, the real key swing factor here. >> we will take a look at retail on her twitter answer. panic retail, in fact. [laughter] are you done with your holiday shopping? the answers came -- about to do mine because january sales have started early, as usual. seasons greetings. that is what we have been hearing from retail analysts, that retailers are the ones panicking and dropping prices way earlier. reveal -- gift certificates printed last night. that is so clever.

i never even think of doing that. >> they just want cash. >> our last twitter answer -- waiting for boxing day discounts. when is boxing day, has anybody been to england? >> the day after christmas. i was there in australia, tons of sales, and everyone was a shopping. >> i will be here bringing you your news. >> we will be coming to 26, i will be here as well. my agenda has got to be russia. this is getting serious and going on script with a bank failure overnight in russia. a small bank failure, we do not need to make a lot about it, but i'm sorry, brendan, this is a set of issues we have to really monitor headlined by headline. >> looking at the central banks or the deposit insurance thoughts on rescuing bank before they go into bankruptcy, those are some troubling words. >> i will point out to articles in the last 12 hours, one saying oil will go to $20 or $30 or

$40, and another saying it will go to $70 or $80. there's a huge debate on what oil does with russia at risk. >> and less you are neil dutta, you do not make any predictions. call,gree, oil is a tough but russia for me is front and center. >> tom, you have to get to radio. my agenda today is north korea full stop i'm excited about the internet outage because there is absolutely no proof to link this to the united states also if you are catching up, what happened is the internet was out in north korea. in many other places in the world, that would not be a targeted section, but in north korea, it is only the army and the elite that have access to the internet at all, so to dump them off the internet is child's play. they have 1400 ip addresses. there are probably 1400 ip addresses in this building. >> we were talking about what kind of retaliation -- the u.s. says they will look to avenge what happened with sony. can you do tit for tat here?

we obviously cannot link it to the u.s., but it does come at an interesting time. >> the president has made interesting comments about a proportional response, and this is a good example of a proportional to sponsor -- less aggressive, a little flick to say we can do this, anybody could have done it, but here is the thing we are capable of, we may be capable of something else. >> gdp -- expecting a revision from the market, some economists pace.3% we did see the biggest gdp growth in the last eight years. >> sounds terrible! if you have a dovish forecast. >> what to does that mean for next year in rates? >> i think most of the drops in rates have not been a function of growth and inflation, so if you are calling for lower rates earlier in the air, you have been right for the wrong reasons . it is all about the term premium. that means the reward for holding treasuries is getting increasingly unfavorable at the moment. >> neil dutta says slow down, gdp.

>> if you are confused about what is happening in the world, ask neil dutta of renaissance macro economics. he is almost never wrong. "bloomberg surveillance" continues on radio. "in the loop" is next. ♪

>> good morning, it is tuesday, december 23 and you are "in the loop." we are 90 minutes away from the opening bell and a santa claus

rally continues this morning by the dow jones is closing in on a record 18,000. we have a great show today, opec producers are looking for oil to rebound between $70-$80 per barrel. north korea's internet goes dark in the wake of the sony hack. we will talk about the media's handling of the hack attack. u.s. futures are little changed right now after the biggest four-day rally in three years as the s&p 500 index does to a record and dow futures are slightly higher. fed's rally in the decision to be patient on the timing of interest rate hikes has helped stocks recover from a plunge earlier this month. there will be data on u.s. economic growth and durable goods in new home sales today. north korea has internet service once again after being cut off for