weekend prime minister david cameron said you kde you relations -- uk eu relations need proper treaty changes. he has an election to win. futures pointing a little lower. stocks 50 futures lower. i am looking at tax futures lower by 40 -- dax futures lower by 45 points. >> happy new year to you. the press reports in terms of merkel and her acceptance of the reality if it exceeds power, what might it mean for the greek relationship for the rest of europe? gold is rising. the federal reserve will deliver the minutes of their last meeting. you're going to get the bank of england. you're going to get jobs report. let's give you a a flavor of

what is going on in the u.k. oil prices at five and a half year low. a great set of numbers from john lewis. we are going to get sainsbury's. the cement maker is a little bit lower. if you are going to be concerned about global growth, that is a little more of a reflection in terms of what is going on. you will see the energy markets energy prices are down. the question is is that the new normal. french banks down 9/10 of 1%. is the greek story contained? that is the essence of the message we are being told over this weekend. if greece goes down the renegotiation road, is it contained? what are the issues for the rest of europe?

is there a disaster recovery plan? every organization has one. does europe? ryanair is basically flat. 88% of the time they take awful. that is up from 81 percent in december. in december they carried over 6 million passengers. that is up over 20%. it is the best performing airline in 2014. easyjet is up just over 9%. ryanair has done a lot of marching. caroline hyde with that. is there a rights issue on the way? what will dave do? what parts of the business will he sell? lots of speculation. this is brent crude, down. what you're seeing is volume of

crude traded is almost double the 100 day moving average. the volume of crude getting transacted is on the move. these five-year bubbles, they have just come back to flat. what does that tell you when the world has decided to give germany their money and be charged for the privilege of it? we have seen negative rates on five-year german government bond bubbles. that is telling you something very big about risk. dollar, the message is simple. long dollar was overrated equities. the dollar index is at its highest level since 2005. bloomberg posts the percentage of a high. lots of fed voices this weekend.

alan greenspan not calling the recovery great. saying the patient and forget about the rate hike. it's all about the pace. >> what a busy first week back. some breaking data coming out of spain. spanish unemployment. jobless claims down by 67.4 thousand. we were looking at a drop of 80,000. jobless claims in spain down by 64.4 thousand. a big story over the weekend. we have to turn degrees. we are just three weeks away from election day. the big talking point over the weekend, a report in germany for spiegel magazine. angela merkel could be ready to accept a greek exit from the eurozone. hans nichols -- hans nichols in berlin.

i am going to kick it off with you in berlin. a report over the weekend. it looks like berlin is pouring some cold water over this one. >> what we have is the party secretary-general for the cdu in a radio interview saying he doesn't see it being possible for greece to exit the eurozone. what we had over the weekend is this report, all anonymous sourcing saying furcal's government is preparing for the possibility of a greek exit, and it thinks a greek exit is manageable. when my colleagues tried to chase this down, what they basically got is nondenial denials. they didn't get confirmation. i want to caution that we should wait until 11:30. that is when we are going to get official government response to the daily press conference. we can try to stuff out -- suss

out is their contingency planning? is this just normal, what every organization does to plan for all contingencies? we don't have confirmation yet. we do have some folks on the record saying to take this with a bit of caution. john? >> i want to take it to athens. some might say the eurozone could cope with a greek exit is an attempt to try to influence the vote later this month. are the greeks paying attention to this news right now? >> what we're seeing is a bit of a repeat of the election of june 2012 which was along similar lines. we had a lot of noises back then, similar kinds of reports

that the euro area is ready for the possibility of a greek exit. the question for greeks to decide is is the threat real. there has been an element of boy who cried wolf syndrome. i think a lot of greeks will be concerned about the possibility of the eurozone exit, but most greeks don't believe greece is going to get kicked out of the eurozone. >> the lead narrowing in some of the polls. the new party is potentially another option. what impact will this have on the election? >> it's too early to say in terms of the polls because we haven't had any major polls over the weekend to measure his impact. they are holding back to finally announce, even though it has been on the cusp for a while.

one folded, before the announcement and said it would probably be about 6% ready to vote. we are not talking massive numbers. in a tight race it could have an impact at the margins. the biggest impact is the party founded by george papandreou. he could eat into that voice a lot. this is the party collapsed in polls. it may have collapsed, but the former voters are also out there. one of the features of the landscape we're seeing is a scramble for voters. this could also have a big impact because of a lot of those stockbrokers have gone to this. this could potentially help

that we will have to wait and see the polls coming out to see what kind of votes they are going to get. there is a small number but a substantial number than merely the name would be enough to garner loyalty. that alone is worth a few percentage points. at the same time he's not a popular figure in greece. this is a guy who took greece into the bailout. i would put my neck on the line and say i don't see him getting double digits. >> thank you very much. i am going to bring in an investor's perspective on the risk to the euro. richard, great to have you with us. i guess the first question reading the commentary over the last couple weeks greece is probably see largely reflected in the bond market. does it stay that way this year

in your view? >> i think it depends on what happens in the election. at the moment the party is backing away from leaving the euro. they are taking a more considered approach. the gray people seem to be of the opinion they are not going to be kicked out of the euro but they want to renegotiate the terms on their borrowings from the ecb. that will have an impact. germany is talking about the possibility of a managed reit exit. i think that is just them being prudent, as the germans tend to be. -- a managed greek exit. >> they are being portrayed as a radical party. sure, greece has a little growth but it is 20% below the precrisis peak. you look at

unemployment around 25%. it is not getting much better from here. are they just admitting this situation is not sustainable, and it has got to change? >> if you look at the main parties, they were talking about actually getting out of the bailout group from the imf and the ecb within the next couple months and therefore the it would have been less pressure. it is a populist nationalist party, and we're seeing that across europe. we're seeing that in denmark spain, italy germany either. the rise of populist rds becoming more dominant -- parties becoming more dominant. >> the euro dropped towards 1.18 overnight. when does this start to make a

difference? when does it start to make a difference? >> i think it will make a difference, especially for germany him a which is a big export nation. -- for germany, which is a big export nation. we have seen economic data coming out of europe a lot weaker than expected. the weaker euro will make it more competitive. japan's currencies are also going fine. japan is having the same impact in the currency. against u.s. and u.k. exports, they have an economic advantage. >> amidst this political risk in europe, would you be buying european equities because of weaker euro? when you look at the fundamentals behind the weaker euro are they supportive of the view to be buying european

assets right now? >> i think european equities are multigenerational against the u.s. market. there is opportunity. the euro is getting weaker. that should support exports. it should support a lot of european companies, especially as europe is such a trading bloc. almost 40% of european trade is exported outside europe. the company fundamentals are a lot stronger than the economy suggests. >> you stay with us. we will keep the conversation as greece edges to a renegotiation of bailout terms. prime minister david cameron pledges to renegotiate written's relationship with europe. we will have more ahead of the key election. stay with us. -- renegotiate written's relationship with europe. -- britain's relationship with

europe. ♪

>> this is "on the move." election season kicked off. david cameron started the new year by starting with his message of fiscal discipline and reiterating a promise to renegotiate britain's row -- role in europe. >> the referendum must take place before the end of 2017.

i would be delighted. the sooner i can deliver on this renegotiation, the better. >> that was david cameron speaking over the weekend. the message from the conservative party, let's stay on the road to a stronger recovery. that is the slogan on the poster. that road is reportedly a photo of the road in germany. richard is still with us. he is the fund manager at oriole asset management. maybe a bit of faux pas on the part of the conservative rt. a sign they have kicked off. >> i think it kicked off with the conference. we are now in the new year. the parties have been positioning themselves towards the election in a few months.

they're repositioning slightly away from the government line over the last few months. it's another stage, but we have been on this road for a while. >> apparently a road away from europe if you are listening to prime minister david cameron, and eventually we could get a referendum. does that make a difference between now and then, or are you looking at the polls and saying it doesn't really matter because i am looking at the polls and it doesn't look like they are going to win? >> because they are complementary they are actually saying, we don't know which way this is going to go. an earlier referendum would be better. also with an election so close coming up in may, the likelihood of getting any major referendum or treaty change before the election is probably very small.

europeans are unlikely to want to make a big commitment to change when he may not be in power come may. >> we have to leave it there. the u.k. general election will take place on may 7. we will be talking to parties across the political spectrum. how well did u.k. retailers performed during the festive season? you have winners and losers after the break. ♪

>> let's turn to shopping. retailers beginning to take stock of how things performed over the holiday season. here is caroline hyde. we have had a little bit of a snapshot already from john lewis. no big surprise. they performed very well. >> the little penguin. there are similar trends. online is where it is at. 19% increase in online spending. we have a third of all jobless christmas sales in five weeks up to the run. a third of them online. more than half the people ordering online. it is about one million pounds

per hour being spent. we saw in store sales remain relatively flat. we get a little show of the discounts today as well. the most successful crispness to date, like for like sales up 20%. or champagne sold at lydl than -- more champagne sold than milk. >> later this week sainsbury's wednesday. but the consensus seems to be for a big drop in same-store sales again. sainsbury's had a small gain. tesco is for an easy comparison.

it looks like they are down again. i think the story for tesco is going to be what the strategy is and how much costs are going to be cut and where assets can be sold. >> are we expecting to get the strategy off the back of that? what's i think there will be something. we have an analyst meeting just before midday. -- >> i think there will be something. it's more than a sales number. i think the u.k. trading strategy is going to be the key thing they are going to discuss. they have already started cutting prices. i think we're going to hear how much costs are going to be cut. they got 39 head offices in the u.k. i think we're going to see that number come down quite a bit. >> thousands of jobs expected to go. we could see a portion of that being sold.

there are all these things being debated. >> the balance sheet is almost certainly needing shoring up. the question is what is the use where they can find the capital to do that. it is unlikely to raise much money. it does give you access to the whole tesco customer base, which may be attractive for someone like talk talk who is discussed as a potential purchaser. >> carolyn talked about the success and one is about having a limited product range. going forward, i look at the legacy left behind over a product range that has expanded is the biggest loser going to be the supplies off the back of this tesco strategy? ? some of them. it's not necessarily there are too many products in the same category. maybe you have a different sizes of tomato ketchup and you only

need three. -- eight different sizes of tomato ketchup, and you only need three. it's about getting it down rather than proliferating. how many types of pasta do you need? fewer than they have had. >> the limited range does help with marks & spencer's. it is much higher quality. at christmas we expect it to trade up. we are likely to see a like for like game, but food likely to be down. they are cutting the outlook. >> the discount store is selling more champagne than milk. we are going to leave it there. thank you very much. we will speak to alberto gallo. find out his outlook for the european banking sector.

we will talk europe and markets after the break. stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back. i am jonathan ferro. it is the first day back to work on the new year. a look at the ftse 100. we are at .33%. the stoxx 600 is also up. some concerns that germany is ready to accept the greek exit. we have seen reverses in the equity markets and the dax is just in positive territory.

let's get the movers. >> a key player in has an interesting move. one of the biggest followers is coughing up more than 800 million dollars. the distributors that it uses in china to help cover the losses. they are complaining that the meeting of unrealistic sales projections could smooth three relationship. it is in the interest to give that sort of money to the dealmakers. they say they are slowing sales growth and a new normal is going on. paying $800 million to the chinese partners. one of the big followers is cutting their view versus the by. they say to look out for the

target. remember they are giving the update on christmas selling on thursday. in online and doing consensus. a big gainer today is up more than 3% because satellites are in this year. it is all about ultrahigh definition. television channels are becoming a reality. global satellite industry will farewell. they will follow suit. >> thank you very much. three stocks to watch this morning. these are the top stories. touching the lowest on the dollar since 2006 on the

speculation the ecb is approaching and the dollar has strengthened against the major currency. the dollar index has reached the highest level in years. the anti-austerity party leads the polls. durst spiegel reported the greek exit from the euro area. the bailout agreement. >> the prime minister emphasized his party message over the weekend and argued that only the conservatives can be trusted with the deficit. cameron insisted that ambitions to run a budget surplus were

realistic. >> membership of the eu. >> those stories are set for 2015. joining us now for more on the outlook ahead. let's get back to greece. i said at the start of the show that the consensus view is that the greek problem is that we are not seeing fallout in other markets. is that what a false sense of security is, in your mind? >> i think that is wrong. portugal, italy, and spain are tight. i do not think a greek crisis could be isolated. we have more firewalls. keep in mind the similar

countries with issues and they are not seen as a risk, at the moment. there is a lot of complacency here. i do not think it is. >> some have disputed that. what is the catalyst for the fallout in the markets? do they have to win and something has to happen for the contagion to take place? >> it is about timing. investors are now waiting for the big buying of sovereigns. nobody wants to short ahead of that if the supply is relatively flat and you know they are going to buy a large amount of sovereign bonds or other things like corporate bonds.

once they launch the program there is a high risk of compromise within the solution because some board members are against risksharing and buying too much. you can have a half-baked solution where they buy and the central bank keeps the risk of the bond that it owns. after the announcement, some details come out and some strength of the program or weakness will come out. that is also when you have the potential elections in greece and a potential cerise a lead. -- sytriza. >> we all noticed that this was after the leading. do you think this was the head of the parliamentary election? did they pull the trigger? >> it is about the last meeting.

it did not incorporate the oil decline in oil continues to decline. it is a negative, in the short run. it feeds into the deflation expectations. the ecb needs to announce something. in without the details, they would say what they are going to do. they may or may not announce certain details. i think they will do something. having said that, the problem is not just greece. we have elections at the regional level and perhaps even in italy. there are elections throughout europe and it does not look like the politicians have found a solution or a response. the plan is coming up in june and the ecb is doing as much as

they can. they are on their own. >> we look at the likes of spain and the movement. portuguese and spanish elections this year is a going to get messier? >> we have more firewalls and market levels and risk level price by markets is low. there is the potential for translation of the crisis and i think this year is a make or break year. halle titian's need to find a response that is credible and only 4% of investors believe the plan is credible, at the moment. if europe does not find a solution overall it will be game over. >> the telefonica solution, is it too little too late?

it makes very little difference to the everyday man in greece, italy, spain, or france. is it too little too late? >> it lowers the interest rate. we have seen the corporate's do not invest because rates are lower. consumers do not spend if they can borrow more. they are uncertain about job prospects and higher stock prices benefit the top 10% of the population which is spending less. this is about government and fiscal policy. this is about spending more. mario draghi talked about needing to do more and every country has to risk -- i assume responsibility. and monetary union is not just about currency.

it comes down to political decisions and fiscal decisions for governments to say that they are there to support europe. we do not have that yet. >> you touched on the effectiveness. how effective is it going to be? we have yields and record lows across europe will stop what difference will it make? >> the depreciation and exports for banks. we have it. it is fine. there are other channels. it benefits only the top part of the population that is better off and it does not spend. the top 10% spends less. the credit impact is that banks are still weak. they are focusing on higher leverage ratio levels, capital requirements. we all talk about this. the banks say they want to lend and the conditions are tight. especially in europe.

it works through exports and the wealth of fact and the credit impact are still not there. it is a limited impact. corporate's investing or not. there were cfos and i asked them which will be using more capex next year. two out of 40. >> what do they want to see? >> they want to see more reforms and something happen on the fiscal side. everybody thinks it will work in markets. they see it as a temporary measure. until there is not governments you will not see investment starting. >> markets are being complacent. >> i think we have to avoid things like greece. we were shorting greece and

portugal is on the ends. they have kicked the can. spain has done reforms. we like investment grade. we do not like high yield. we see troubles for the smaller firms and the current sees lowering with fundamentals and deflation's. we like to stay on the higher-quality part of the market. >> the head of credit research, i pleasure. coming up, what happens in vegas does not stay in vegas. samsung and sony look to make splashes.

>> welcome back. it is a: 45 -- 8:45. paying for losses. they comes offer -- off the stock. they complain about being unable to meet targets and it slows job growth. leave financial services company at 18%.

they say that the job vacancies in the city rose last year and the increase was fueled by a jump in hiring in the last months of the year. 2014 was a pretty good year for an activist investor according to bloomberg's ranking. the purchasing was the number one spot. the fund returned 32 point 8% on investment last year up from 2013. we are going to talk now. tech goes to vegas. titans of the industry look at the sector's biggest trade show. caroline hyde has the preview. i want a sense of what we get. is it extravagant? does it come with any substance? >> 160,000 people are descending

on las vegas, more then there are hotel rooms. they do not want it to get any bigger, they say. interestingly, there will be a big french contingent and startups in las vegas. they are trying to show us the peace of the economy. it is about new gadgets. you will be able to wander around and it will be the latest television and smartphone. drones and robots, appliances washing machines. a lot of people go when and this year, they are starting up a new chinese version that will launch in may. the chinese are not coming over from asia that much. >> what kind of gadgets are we

going to get to see? you have got some of them. some criticize that you do not get the big gadgets that get released by companies themselves. what can we expect? >> it is tough. the limelight gets drowned and so many companies and five for attention. the congress is held in barcelona. i think this will be about televisions and big television lineups coming from sony sharp, phillips. these are powered by android. now, if samsung -- it is samsung's turn to come in and revolutionize themselves. they are powered by titan, the operating system. this is samsung trying to take control of itself. it has the operating system in

some of the phones and watches. overall, it is still the number one player when it comes to televisions. that is why they are so dependent on google. it takes revenue when it comes to selling apps and movies on those android devices. they are try to take back control and get the operating system working. it owns the biggest market share in the world. it is also about the internet of things. samsung will not be showing superiority. we are seeing profitability and they want to grab that back by having a television that talks to a washing machine. this is about a $7 trillion

market that they want to get their hands on. >> thank you very much. you will bring us the news that matters. the pulse is coming up and we are joined by one of the hosts who wants to talk about technology. >> we are going to talk a lot about it. however, what i want to talk about is a french contribution. this is a self adjusting belts. >> why would you need one? >> we will talk about that. it will be data coming through with statewide contributors. we get the flash eurozone data on wednesday and it is a tale of two economies. we get the wednesday minutes and the eurozone data around greece.

it is an incredible story and it will be defining 2015. get the story. which is the biggest this week? >> probably the greg said. -- grexit. we may get that earlier than 2017. it will be the story. it is your kind of week. lots of data. very exciting inflation data. >> of course. >> let's do a market check. the ftse 100 is in positive territory and the dax is up. over in paris, up 16 points. we will talk more after the

break.

>> welcome back. it is time to talk about lithuania. talking about rotation. the biggest economy. hans nichols reports.

>> it marked a big change and not just for the people exchanging euros. the power balance of the eurozone shifted because the number of representing countries will be 19. there are only so many on the governing council. the arrival has triggered a rotation system. the biggest economies are germany, france, italy, spain and the netherlands. 11 voting rights among themselves. the six members and a german have permanent votes. it means that the president will not be able to say no to votes.

the lithuanian top rank will not have a say. for any decision this october, the lithuanian economy is 2% and will have a vote. the german bank will not. >> let's get out to hans nichols. this is really a little-known wants. >> it is more new wants and could have a fax in october. if you think quantitive easing's need to be made. i will say that we are in a taper discussion in europe and the taper question could have an effect when the germans may sit

out of the vote. >> thank you very much. that is it for on the move. if you want to continue the conversation, you can find us on twitter and the pulse is up next.

>> new year, new low. the euro falls the most since 2006 as the ecb appears to get closer to qe and grace's prime minister says his country could be getting closer to an exact. >> after prices collapsed last year, oil extends its drop. >> in vegas, the annual consumer electronics show is stretching sin city to its limits. good morning, welcome. you are watching "the pulse