oil plunges to blow $49 a barrel. mitch mcconnell would like the president to pick up the phone. it is frozen in america. the disney world is packed. good morning this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york this tuesday, january 6. i am tom keene with scarlet fu and brendan greeley. that's get to our top headlines. >> let's start with oil. crashes yet another milestone. blew past the $50 a barrel level and try to below $49, down as much as 3%. this marks the fourth after klein for oil. red crude reaching as low as $51.23. speculation u.s. oil inventories will expand, putting even more pressure on prices. the government releases those inventory figures tomorrow. word that verizon approaches or approached aol about some common nation.

according to people friendly with the matter, they have had discussions about a potential acquisition or joint venture. verizon is interested in aol technology that deals with the automated buying and selling of ads online and wants to expand its mobile video offerings. >> new republican congress goes to work in washington today. first thing on the to do list, keeping the fight in the family. john faces the challenge to his leadership from two house republicans, one from texas and one from florida have announced they will run for speaker. their chances are slim. they would need to find 30 republicans were willing to vote against john boehner. in florida, same-sex marriages are now legal. the dan was originally set to expire today, but couples in miami-dade council got an announcement when the judge cleared the way for same-sex weddings to begin a day early. they are now legal in 36 states and the district of columbia.

>> katy perry is rehearsing for the super bowl starting today. you will be up to look at -- talk about toys. gadgets at the consumer electronics show in las vegas. 160,000 people will gaze in awe bedrooms. plenty of cool things there. bmw gave a preview of a self driving car. it remains to be seen if bernanke really will be seen with google glasses because they are so out this year -- it remains to be seen if brendan greeley will be seen with google glasses because they're so out this year. talks never. access to a data check. no other story out there. futures were negative. ten-year yields, two point 0%. the euro, not much and the yenn is stronger. ymex is draw jaw dropping.

the vix back to its long-term average. brent crude, 51.78. ruble sometime yesterday gave it up, obviously, linked to the intervention. much weaker rbule. 75-ish was the panic of a number of weeks ago. let's do the 56.59 number. this is totally esoteric. this is the wait out the yield curve spread. the difference in yield between the 10 year and 30 year, here is the gloom. here's the 30 year lower than the tenure. then we are better. this is lehman, the crisis of 2008-2009. it is interesting how we are getting near that again. >> do you think the future is going to be any better than the

present? this is the larry summers index. it are looking at something cyclical or this is people realizing they did the future is not going to be better "bloomberg surveillance." in cash under the mattress, little bit. you can't put it on the mattress, by a 30 year bond. >> there it is. i want to make clear that is not something we look at every day. >> don't try it at home. >> the implosion continues. oil truly pledged at 4:30 with a median effect across foreign exchange and interest rate markets. future site. for perspective on important tipping points along this way, we want to bring our guest, an expert on the nations budget and those plug-in numbers they give us believe in what the budget will be. and also, a market strategist at prudential financial with decades of experience.

what is different this time around? you and i have seen this before. what is the new new? >> you have had the fed and draghi 2006-2012, bank of japan, coming in constantly, consistently, and getting the markets to be happier. getting the markets to say, ok everything will be fine. >> everything is working? >> obviously, it is in. we have been trained to instinctively buy on the dip. >> you are going to buy on the dip. is what we're seeing just a repricing of assets across equities, bonds, currencies? >> once you have that kind of quick plunge in any commodity, any asset, it is going to bleed over and that is what you're seeing. >> if i understand you correctly, you're saying on a terry policy had an effect and now it is a psychological effect.

>> we are going to see. everyone is expecting mario draghi to come in and go into qe and we will see what kind of effect that has. we will see the fed comes out with any word other than patient to see whether or not -- >> january 22 meeting right? sorry, i did not mean to interrupt. you're so excited to be back from boston. it is warmer. >> it is definitely warmer. i used to live in boston, met my wife there, and i left it was 20 degrees. i said, thanks, goodbye. >> i need ask about the oil prices. we've been talking about the net positive for u.s. economy and consumer. has oil prices gone from being good too bad for the u.s. economy because of the persistent decline? >> when you're looking at the economy and then there is the stock market so we see bleeding into the market. the question is, how many layups

are you going to have in texas and north dakota? in fact, the numbers are not that astounding. when you do the equilibrium on the equation, it is oxley better for the overall u.s. economy. >> these are not petro states but diversified economies which have oil and gas. >> exactly. mind you, you go to houston and a lot of what you see is oil-related, but we hope they learned to diversify a bit. is it going to be painful? sure. real estate agents say they already here, i'm not buying that yet to see were oil goes. >> in the skyline of new orleans when oil crashed. >> exactly. overall, it is better for the u.s. economy. >> does it change the way washington perceives this year, especially as a tackles along to do list? >> first of all, it does put more money in the hands of consumers. if you look on social media you're seeing euphoria about what people are paying to fill up their tanks.

one of the biggest users of fuel in the united states is the defense department. it will have a positive impact on the budget. it will put a little more downward pressure on interest rates in general. it is only a matter of time between one of two things happen or both, one, as you talked about yesterday, larry summers was pushing for an increase on gasoline tax. the second is, at what point to we start talking about or does congress start talking about a bailout for oil companies? >> that would be an interesting one. stan collender with us along with quincy krosby. we want to bring our twitter question of the day -- tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." i am told the fog pervades in washington. a perfect metaphor for the beginning of a congress where everybody is back in washington. >> and we have the arctic breeze , putting it kindly wafting the northeast. >> it is called winter, right? they will cancel something as the sun rises in the east. one thing is certain, washington could care less about what markets are doing, rather, political elites return to the nation's capital and are ready to inflict budget process. we begin our coverage with philip mattingly in washington. what i want to know is, who are you going to watch? i can't keep track of the

players i know come the players i don't know. what is the back story? who should i watch? >> tom, you naturally gravitate toward the leadership position, but there is a time of key numbers the hind the scenes that i think are very important. not necessarily the people you don't about, but those who have relationships with the white house or work on issues at the white house is about. the top one on my list is senator bob corker from tennessee, republican, very, very involved with foreign affairs but also willing to move into the center and try and make deals. on one of those issues, transportation funding. he is a bill to raise the gas tax, something most republicans won't go near. when it comes to issues on foreign policy and fiscal areas, you can count on bob corker to try to get into the white house. it is whether the white house will help him out. >> does anything happen before the state of the union address? >> will probably be most interesting is if republicans find a way to force the

president's hand on key stand, to force the veto by passing bills. the senate will start to move on keystone xl pipeline build this week. the house could start as late as this week. that is probably the main thing. in time, you will see a lot of positioning. house republicans will start to move bills quickly and senate republicans see what they can do in trying to keep the process open. democrats are queuing up a ton of amendments that would be problematic for anything they want to do on the messaging side of things. what is going to be interesting is seeing how piece of all -- people position themselves before that january 20 speech. >> how we understand headline i saw in "the new york times" which was republicans eager to show they plan to govern starting with the keystone pipeline. the keystone pipeline is politics. it is theater, not economic policy. >> but, you have bipartisan support. 63 64 people are already on

board in the senate for this bill. that is a couple of democrats on there as well. it is not necessarily a policy issue they can move forward to show they are governing, it is more important to show their actually able to compromise. find areas of agreement with democrats, show they can move things forward, something say say senator harry read was incapable of doing over the last six to eight years. the bills will not be all policy-laden, but they will be there. >> expert on the game, stan collender decades and watching washington and run in phone books on budget analysis. what is the new new? >> how they're not going to get things done. the bottom line, you're right, it is going to be the same. at the end of the year, very little will be accomplished. but it will be not accomplished differently. >> with the market turmoil, do we have any believe the plug-ins the cbo's use as a trend again

the budget? >> probably not. there's a lot of turmoil now with the new cbo director the assistant directors term expired january 3. the question is whether republicans will lose it -- use it to appoint a new director that believes in fervent dynamic scoring? >> we of been hearing hits of it. do you think they will go for this or is it out of sheer habit? >> cbo does do dynamic scoring they just don't do it to the extent that a republican majority wants. i don't think there is any doubt they will get a cbo director who will be willing to push that. that will be the litmus test and make tax cuts look less expensive, not increase the deficit is much, therefore, not be as big of a procedural hurdle. this shows you this is more political. this is not a question of compromising and getting things done, but a question of showing our constituents that you are willing to support what they want. >> that is so discouraging to

hear for those who are cynical that both sides can work on something governing together, i know you're skeptical, can you give us any reason to be less skeptical about what is going to happen in washington this year? >> actually, no. >> thank you for that. >> so we're finished. >> you have been wonderful support to "surveillance" deficit is under 3%? that is a miracle. that is phenomenal. >> it is. we have had taxes going up, tax revenue going up across states and across the federal government, and that is one of the reason, by the way, that the supply and treasury market is down. >> are there going to be fewer bonds? >> absolutely. the deficit will keep falling and baseline assumptions to about $400 billion. >> do you believe the prices of debt will be bid up and the

yields come down? >> i think it has been going on for the last 8, 10, 12 months, actually. >> one of the ironies, under the republican majority in both houses, chances are fiscal discipline will go down, that the deficit will be higher. >> how do you know that? >> look at what they're pushing. tax cuts defense increases additional money for the highway trust funds. where is the discipline? >> this is the problem with dynamic scoring. there is evidence tax cuts have this effect, but it is, how big to make the multiplier? if you have the discretion of the cbo director to put a huge multiplier on tax cuts, you can get away with anything. >> the good news as far as market watchers are concerned the final say on where the scoring goes is done by the office in management and budget. cbo may provide the numbers for what congress will do, but ultimately, they do not decide whether it loses money and by how much. >> then it could be dynamic for

government expenditures. >> exactly. >> stan collender with us as well as quincy krosby. coming up, mr. musk tesla, cape canaveral, spacex. does it have a tesla engine? it will be launching from cape canaveral air force station. they're going to put it up with a satellite, but even cooler part of the falcon rocket is supposedly going to be recovered in the ocean. >> we will see. >> i don't know how they do that. they built a test like they can do this. we will come right back from "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." rubel went to 64. that is a spike in weakness. it has little bit of a bid right now. different institutions in russia affecting the rubel, but 64 is a very weak ruble. we need a morning must-read. >> shinzo abe writing the prime ministers of japan writes -- quincy krosby this is interesting to me because japan has not had a monetary problem

but a demographic problem. this finally seems like it's ready to take on a demographic problem japan has. >> there are other ways to do it in one way is immigration and making it easier for immigrants to come in, which japan has been loathe to do forever. women have been, basically, kept at low levels and they need to have more babies because you to bring up the population down support the older ones who are retiring in droves. it is a natural solution. but you have to give the women the jobs and you have to supply babysitting for the babies. >> universally, this is a tough problem, allowing women to work and families to grow. this is a poly issue -- policy issue we have not done well. >> if you look at scandinavia and germany, that a better take, particularly, scandinavia. the fact is, this is one they need the population. they need the income from the younger ones to help support the

older ones. and they live a long time in japan. >> in the u.s., at least we have a much more open immigration policy than japan. what they're asking for in japan, sounds like a much taller order. >> nominal gdp under 1% gets your attention to show the challenge of the demographic economics. stan collender when you hear people in the media say, it is like japan, how do you respond to that? that america is becoming like japan or europe is becoming like japan? do you believe it? >> no. there are 70 structural differences between our economy and their economy. -- there are so many structural differences between our economy and their economy. >> you have done this for years in washington. how do you respond to this malarkey? did i editorialize there? >> malarkey is a technical term.

>> jargon alert. please, thank you. >> in washington, yet people responding to soundbites as opposed to facts. the facts seldom get in the way of the soundbite. >> really. >> i'm sure you are shocked at that. >> another thing that came out of the op-ed, with the id is open to moving the transpacific partnership forward. what is left unsaid is japanese farmers are really going to have to accept the terrorists are going to go away. you were there this year. is that something they are ready for? >> it takes a very long time to get anything done in japan. i can remember the state of washington apples, the negotiations, you would've thought it was nuclear disarmament talks to get south carolina rice into japan to get apples. it you know what happened, when the country collapsed, suddenly, they opened up much more quickly. that is rapidly -- not as

rapidly as we would like but much more quickly. you have investment banks. you never had that. as the new progresses, if they cannot get the economy going they will move. >> futures just went green while you were talking. >> there you go. >> moving the market higher up to positive two from negative three. we will continue with the risks internationally. joining us from eurasia group as we look at a troubled europe. stay with us. good morning, it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> if it is tuesday, it must be taken at all. they will try for a launch on friday. this is mr. musk and a private effort to put things in space. they will put this things up with a couple tons worth of stuff -- laser equipment, i don't know books from the economic association? >> they are way too heavy. >> and try to take a rocket and capture it in the ocean so they can reuse it. >> that is what is fascinating, this is not the last time you will see that rocket and that is what is different. >> like -- there's a tesla x

rumored to be there. >> do you think elon musk is on hand for this? >> i don't know. there it is. >> this is just further proof that iran musk is a bond villain. >> even his name sounds like it. >> i know. >> we will give you coverage on friday. let's save ourselves and go to top headlines. >> the sun appoints got capital management has been charged with murder. 30-year-old thomas burke, junior shot his father in the head and then staged the scene to look like a suicide. the younger gabbert was arraigned in manhattan criminal court, being held without bill. trying to expand the official intelligence technology. the social network is buying an 18-month-old startup that force hundreds of applications to detect spoken words. mark zuckerberg has been

stepping up investment in research and artificial intelligence since last year. three-time cy young winner pedro martinez among several retired big leaguers awaiting a call from the hall. the baseball hall of fame announces election results that are today. the former boston red sox ace is among 17 valid newcomers. others include randy johnson -- [no audio] >> these are three different pitchers. exquisite. he is done well after his career. >> what has he done? >> a lot of charity stuff. >> i am not a boston fan, as you know. >> here we go. >> i'm waiting for a-rod hall of fame. >> dueling mousepads.

here we go. >> sorry, never too early for baseball. >> i don't use a mouse pad. that is what is going on here. >> we do look forward to the hall of fame. >> speaking of mice, call it the disney world indicator. one way to measure u.s. confidence is to look at traffic at the orlando theme park. the magic kingdom was packed over the holiday season with people willing to splash buckets of cash for family amusement and a lot of waiting. quincy krosby, why do you say disney world shows the future? >> it is totally discretionary income. if you feel like you're going to lose your job, a even think over the christmas holiday you will say to the kids, look, let's put it off a bit. there was a line at one of the epcot rides that was a five-hour wait. in terms of the magic kingdom, they literally had to stop

people coming in. you could not even go in until someone came out. the lines for food were enormous. either way, it wasn't just americans. there were foreigners coming in. what does that tell you? >> is it the last hoorah as we see the turmoil in the markets is that race of exuberance before -- >> wow, are you depressing. >> i think it is a great observation. >> many of them actually don't focus on the market. with a focus on, do they have a job? gasoline prices are down. perhaps i just bought a car. there feeling optimistic. that is the difference from main street and wall street. >> a good point that most people are not americans. when i went in november, during the low season, you would not have known a given how packed it was.

everything heard around the was spanish, portuguese -- every other language in addition to english. >> awe look at that. >> were you on speaking terms that they? >> barely. >> stan collender you are trying to tease apart the economy. how much weight you into anecdotal evidence like this and how do you take that and plug it into actual statistics? >> we do both. msl is a research-driven organization. if we were working for disney we would want to be talking about the increase in the statistics itself, year over year, those types of things to demonstrate the popularity of what is going on, how good a company is doing. i'm thinking of the corporate story. how old is tuesday as a company and how is it they are still thriving? you've already mentioned "frozen" once. >> intellectual property is part of it. >> it is the correct marketing

of it, marketing to different generations. this is a company that has shown extraordinary amounts of staying power. from a public relations firm those would be the kinds of stories we are trying to show. >> it is amazing the way they take the classics and making sure on the dvd they autoplay plugs for disney world, upcoming films. your kids know what is going on a disney. >> and stored for generations. quincy, disney is a consumer discretionary company because you don't have to spend that money at disney world. also in the category, media companies. verizon and aol. let's talk about them perhaps getting together, whether it is a joint venture or take over, do you expect to see more of this -- whether this happens or not in 2015? >> i think all of the companies are looking for different venues

for growth. getting growth, having growth. mind you, the stock market is nervous the whole year. they will put off some of these deals. assuming the market calms down you're going here more and more deals this year. >> what verizon's primarily interested in is aol question yes advertising technology -- aol's advertising technology. >> identity from all of our research and what we're hearing from clients, digital advertising is where everyone wants to go. you guys have bloomberg do it extremely well. >> shameless plug. >> but not from me. >> launching in january is bloomberg business -- >> speaking of shameless plug's. >> a beautiful blue color. >> we're just getting started on "bloomberg surveillance." we want to bring our twitter

question of the day -- >> a loaded question. >> seems to be a precursor of gloom to come. tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪

>> good morning, everyone "bloomberg surveillance." a little better this morning. futures are up 3 everything improving off the carnage he saw about 4:30 this morning. let's get to the non-carnage. a gorgeous chart. single best chart. >> it seems like everyone around you is, huh? how the flu outbreak, the pink, compares with the previous years, which are the great lines in the background. this season, the cdc says almost 6% going to the hospital are due to feel -- flulike symptoms. >> so it is a bad year for the flu. >> on pace for one of the worst seasons in recent years. compared to a couple of high profile previous seasons, we peaked earlier than the outbreak in 2012 to 2013, the yellow line. though this year's strain is tamer thence one flew five years

ago, the blue line. that hit almost a person of all hospital visits -- that was honest a percent of all hospital visits. >> life-changing -- >> the spanish flu? >> for the entire world. the real problem with the flu -- >> the swine flu, sorry. >> spoiler alert. >> continue. >> now have to talk about infant mortality rates. what we really worry about is not -- over time, what we're seeing from the cdc, the mortality rates for flu season are going down but the spikes for the bad flus are worse. >> good point. this season, especially, there's a lot of talk about how the flu vaccine is not a match for the predominant strain. it is not as effective.

as one doctor pointed out in "the new york times," the purpose of the flu shot and its efficacy is not that it keeps you from getting the flu, but it keeps you from dying. >> "surveillance" science. did you get a shot? >> i did not. >> flu, pneumonia, and shingles. >> i don't get one. >> oh man, sweetheart i promise i'm going to get one. i'm going to do it. i'm in trouble. >> you put him on the spot. my young the store and got a flu shot. -- my youngest got the flu shot. only because we have to. otherwise, no. >> no, pending. >> no no, no yes -- oh crap. >> seriously, the point is this is about the x percent of the public really gets sick off

this. >> a small percentage, but when it is severe, there's a really high mortality rate. did you know the business of producing flu vaccines is not very profitable because you can't really scale the way you can with another kind of drug and have to change it every year? >> let's go to top photos. we want to use brendan greeley's expertise on germany. >> looking at 18,000 people marching in germany in the east in support of what is called an academic internet basically means people united against the influence of islamization. very loose and inadequate comparison to the tea party. do not see the neo-nazis. this is a completely different trend. week after week him a this is growing. -- week after week, this is growing.

this is where the wall came down. you people in the east marching. it is growing. the never reaction in the west. volkswagen, for example, has a plant near used dresden were went dark in protest of the protest. >> angela merkel talked about this in a new year's speech. >> quincy krosby you're nodding your head. >> i read the speech. it was the focus of her speech, that we need -- >> it is amazing. such an important topic in germany to have the chancellor saying, we need to avoid -- >> but across all of europe with what we learned from hans nichols and from you every day is the european impatience with elites six years in with the german 10 year yield stunning .47%, i mean, it is a must protest against a japan-like moment. >> one story we have been

learning in the past five years in europe is the dominant parties in each country on both sides have failed to address one really important question, which is, how do you responsibly respond to immigration? there are people in those countries finding other political ways to deal with this at the major parties are not equipped to handle. >> we will be discussing that further. they cite the politics of europe as the number one risk in 2015. >> ian bremmer was on yesterday. c very quickly, this is about nominal gdp. animal spirit in europe. there is a failure of it. >> is this a racial situation or in economic protest? do these folks feel they have not time their fair share relative to other people in our angry or entitled to more or they don't have an opportunity? >> i don't think it is racial. i really think it is -- i think it is what you said. it is more likely it is a response to five years of stagnation and nothing looking

good on the horizon. >> speaking of spacex, this is not spacex. >> solar impulse 2 been loaded into a boeing 737. >> switzerland? >> the only airplane that flies completely on solar power. >> that is kind of frightening. >> that is what i take to davos. >> you cannot take the redeye. that is the problem. our number one, attempt the hardest rock, and the world using only their hands and feet no ropes to scale in yosemite. what is amazing, this is a multi-day climb, which means they park on the rock ace and sleep for the night. >> to be clear -- >> i'm sorry, -- >> i should say, these are from the production company. their competing in "national

geographic" adventure of the year. >> no ropes going up, but there have ropes if they fall? >> they are climbing up on their own. you are clipped in lower, so the catastrophe happens, you're only going to fall 40 feet as opposed to 500. you are shackled, not boletted. >> very good photos. coming up in the next hour, one of our best guess of 2014, we do redux. scott galloway joins us from new york university. we will talk to him about the future of mr. armstrong's aol. futures up 3. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." >> john is accelerating -- china is accelerating infrastructure projects. the investment will be in seven industries including oil and gas

pipelines, health care, clean energy, transportation, and mining. a fired morgan stanley employee is "extremely sorry" for his conduct according to his attorney. he is said to become operative with morgan stanley. -- he is said to be caught operating with morgan stanley. the firm says there's no evidence customers lost any money. dish network unveils a major internet streaming television service to targeting customers who don't want to pay for a larger more expensive cable package. it will cost $20 a month and viewers will get a dozen channels, including espn and tnt, and cnn. it does not include a similar broadcast network. those are your top headlines this morning. >> tom, i just got back from the american economic association conference in boston and i brought you a quiz. here's what we're looking at. this is a bloomberg poll of the

-- the mechanics of a stop. looking at volume and price. what would you say has happened to that company? >> the price is going down. >> here is what is happening. di corp. is in the similar conductor industry. coincidentally, the ceo son is cy. the guy who was dancing in the video. this is a researcher andy tim was trying to figure out how we can separate attention on a stock from real information about a stock. the assumption is from noise. some people hear about gagnum style and hear about the stock and what happened is, the price went up based on no material information whatsoever. this is your attention, is what we're looking at. >> everybody who celebrates this

song for able to generate thrown flash mobs with tens or hundreds of thousands of people and then excited about this song and upload the flash mob together with it. that is a great profit for us about the attention level of the stock in that specific region. and lo and behold, when the attention level in that region is higher, then the individual investor of that region are more likely to buy this stock. institutional investors were rather silent because they are smarter money. >> quincy krosby this is what struck me about this research was the big institutional investors were actually sophisticated. they moved on this. individual investors, notice the corporation him about the stock. >> absolutely.

that is one of the reasons you will see placement in movies. people go to the movies and see a brand and the movie. -- brand in the movie, this is an important product, i will check out their stock. >> a shoe company gets an athlete to endorse their product. you don't know how good the shoe is, you just know some athlete has his name on it. >> with the exception of great work people in finance and investment stand in awe of economies garbage analysis of what happens on the street. economists as a general rule are absolutely tone deaf to what is called drift in stock markets. we have seen a decade after decade. this is two points right? >> no, but he is looking at the attention. >> so we are saying this is all pegged, each spike is win gan gnam style became popular.

take a look at who owns the stock now. this is even better. >> psy's grandmother sells shares, so she is in smart money? the fourth-largest shareholder is a new purchase fund advisors. i can't quite square that away. our producer got in touch with dfa and they declined comment. >> the linkage of academics to finance. >> didn't you also dance? >> of course. andy kim and i -- those are my hips moving. strangely, we are synced. >> this doesn't look like the first time you did gangnam style. >> i do weddings and bar mitzvah's. >> ruble is really front and

center today. we have a better tape in the last 20 minutes. stay with us. we have another hour of "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> the implosion continues, the

10-year earlier this morning below 2%, the oil low $49 a barrel. domestic and global ramifications of a repricing of assets. we consider the top risks for international relations in a 2015. you are had -- istanbul. we have a problem. and the height and hope of ces. no one is waking up with a pair of google glasses. they are so last year. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, january 6. i am tom keene for stub me scarlet fu and brendan greeley. >> oil crashing through yet another milestone. traded below $49 below $48.50 down as much as 3%. brent crude, the international benchmarks, reached as low as $51.23.

there is speculation that u.s. oil imports will expand as well and put more pressure on prices the massively. the government releasing those figures tomorrow. there is word that verizon has approached a well about a combination. the two companies have had discussions about a potential joint acquisition -- excuse me, a potential acquisition or joint venture. verizon is interested in awol technology involving buying and selling ads online. it also want to expand its mobile video offerings. >> the new republican congress goes to work in washington today. first thing on the to do list -- keeping the fight in the family. speaker john boehner faces a challenge to his leadership from two house republicans, congress men louie gohmert of texas and ted lobo of florida said they will run for speaker. their chances are slim. in florida, same-sex marriages are now legal. the ban was set to expire today, but couples in miami-dade got a surprise when yesterday a state

judge cleared the way for same-sex marriage to happen a day early. it is now legal in 36% and d.c. now 70% of the country's population. >> starting today in las vegas, you will be able to look, play, talk about gadgets. the industry tries a drone in every corner, every booth has a drone this year. the consumer electronics show opens. 100 60,000 people will be there. scott galloway not one of them. mercedes give a preview of its self driving car. >> a prototype. >> and grab the public's attention. we will have modest coverage here on "bloomberg surveillance" in this hour. let's do a data check. the markets -- this was ugly at 4:30 this morning. it shaped up much better than before. i have got futures up 6 right now, the 10-year yield 2%. euro-dollar one$1.19.

nymex crude $49.12 a barrel. when he to continue this conversation. julian emanuel has given us perspective on ubs. we are thrilled to bring you this morning scott galloway of the stern school new york university particularly as we look at technology and the uproar it that is known as ces. julian, you have the cover, no question on every newspaper. how correlated are the markets right now? what is the language -- what is the language of equities to oil to the dollar? >> the most important correlation is the euro and oil. they are moving down and lockstep for stop essentially, you know, you go back to last summer when oil started falling and the euro started falling basically at that point, it was

seen as a positive for u.s. equity markets anyway. now there is a question. >> as you see the dynamics in this spread are there whispers that everybody has got it wrong and there is a legitimate slowdown contraction, recession out there? or can you still have an optimism on the american economy? >> it is difficult to argue that at least in the u.s. that there is a recession building. you just had a third quarter where the gdp came in at 5%. clearly the euro zone is a different case and that disconnect between the heart of the issue. >> julian, i want to ask you about your notes in november that i did not completely understand. you write market plunge followed by a furious rally has awakened investors to the idea that risk perceptions have changed more quickly. i do not completely understand what that meant. >> basically if you look at 2013, you look at most of 2014 volatility took a holiday. suddenly we got to the fourth

quarter of last year and you started getting these moves, completely consistent within the context of a fed that could start raising rates. >> the challenges of mr. draghi, i look in norway's lousy nominal gdp because they have got deflation. the numbers we are not in any way used to. >> what we are finding out one by one us which states are petro states. norway, though a solid democracy, is a petro state. >> their wealth of the last two years has been linked to that, no question. >> you have a target of 7500 by year end of 20 to 25 -- of $22.25. for those of you on radio, we will tweak that out. this bull market, julian, as about six years old. what is the quality of a bull market this is?

historically, what do we know about? >> we know it is going to become more volatile, so investors have to have more patience. everything will time in the last five years -- >> can i interrupt? throw that chart up again for stop scarlet, this is a brilliant chart. for those of you on radio, this is the guesstimate of 10 strategists on the street. have you gone into a meeting where they trot out a january chart like that is a hey you, has that ever happened? >> you are always under the gun in this business. >> that would be a yes. >> we learn that a journalism too. i have been told by editors "just publish, you will be wrong tomorrow." [laughter] >> get back to what you are saying -- people need dry powder because it will be volatile in 2015. >> that is right, it is consistent between this divergence between the u.s. and

europe and the idea that you have the threat to european growth at the same time the fed may begin raising interest rates. perceptions of risk may change and you look at january -- there are a lot of uncertainties as we go from january. >> scott galloway with us from new york university as well. there is an animal spirit that text needs. is the greater tech in the marketing and entrepreneurial world enough to hold up the u.s. economy given these global challenges? to me it is almost a sideshow. >> yeah it gets a disproportionate share of the heat in the room, but the new celebrities are tech ceo's. ces so far has been a big snooze, but think about the press coverage for stop trying to find the really interesting story coming out of ces. the most interesting thing in technology is not in vegas for the latest they we broke ground on a new high-speed train in california. first in the u.s. also disruptive to the space

travel industry, elon musk -- reusable booster rocket. trying to take a 14-story rocket that reenters the atmosphere 1300 meters a second and landed safely on an oil platform. >> are we allowed to save meters per second? [laughter] >> in american, that is just really damn fast. >> that is a "surveillance" translation. galloway's "really damn fast." >> so is the merger between a well and verizon a really damn good idea? >> marissa mayer is the most underrated, does not get enough credit, tim armstrong -- >> scott, say what you will there is the stock. >> programmatic media, early bets on adaptive tv, now the third largest ad network behind google and facebook.

$4 billion acquisition for a $176 billion company makes all the sense in the world. >> you brought in marissa mayer because there is so much discussion of yahoo! having to tie up with aol, if the verizon- a well deal goes through, it leaves yahoo! in the cold. >> this comer station, would not happen in europe. -- this conversation would not happen in europe. >> we would be talking in meters per second. the potential verizon-eight will deal -- it does it make sense to matter what the sec decides about how to handle internet infrastructure? >> are you getting to net neutrality again? >> i am! i almost said title ii -- i said it! i wonder if verizon considers maybe becoming a content provider, does it have to wait for the fcc to rule on net neutrality. >> i think verizon can take control of the fact that they

create a third of the market handsets in the u.s. >> but julian, quickly, to take the expressions, this does not happen in other parts of the world, it is part of the unique american character, which is the immediate divergence. >> absolutely. look at technology going back to the 1980's. the center has been the united states, and part of the reason that we like technology is that it is still such a robust business, not only in terms of future development, but there is tons of cash. >> julian emanuel and scott galloway with us, a smart hour here on "surveillance." coming up, we get even smarter on eurasia group. ian bremmer with us yesterday, mujtaba rahman today. stay with us. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we are now up 5 on the futures. dow futures up 38. let me get to morning must-read on oil. steve short and credibly granular -- steve shork in credibly granular. here's a series of thoughts

>> that is a lot of narrow, granular good talk on the effervescence in the market. julian emanuel with us from ubs. i have sat here for the last x number of weeks as people including vladimir putin said this is a bottom. it is not. how do you know when you get a bid on something as disastrous as oil? >> you are looking for response to news, first off. news that the saudi king was ill and in the hospital does not help -- should have helped, has not helped just because creating more uncertainty in the saudi's, who is the swing producer and putting pressure with like they put a bit on oil because king abdul is fading. >> because more uncertainty and leadership transition, but the fact is it has not happened, you

need some sort of catalyst and we do not know what it is. >> you and i have seen this time and time and time again. the rationalization of a declining market. what is different this time? >> what is different this time is it really is a question of whether it is supply or the demand issue. people are so fearful of the rest of the world going into a recession. >> i wonder what happened this morning, which was until earlier this year, it was always looking at supply, and everyone went oh we need to look at demand sorry, supply, then this morning it is demand again. has the story changed? >> no but what, changed is you broke $50, and that is the psychological difference, and now you are getting into the point where you are in the new year, you broke $50, people are obviously wrong -- >> scarlet with your wonderful coverage on bloomberg and the equity markets, you have seen this for years and years, this idea of rationalizing a market

moving the wrong way. we are in it the right now. >> a lot of time will be wasted as we have two much supply and not enough demand. which one do you think will revert first? >> probably demand, but it is going to take some time. >> that is a big mystery, julian emanuel, our guest post for the hour, along with scott galloway of nyu stern school of business. our twitter question for the day, by the way -- have low oil prices gone from good to bad for the u.s. economy? tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪

>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." $49.27 a barrel west texas intermediate. we are better than we were two hours ago. >> $48.50. >> let's get to top headlines. >> tub is gilbert senior has been charged with murder. police say 30-year-old thomas gilbert jr. shot his father in

the head and then arranged it to look like a suicide. and the ceo of sony spoke in las vegas. it's a sony's first,t public comments on the hacking. the reverse the decision to release the spy caper "the interview." and dish network is unveiling a major internet streaming television service targeting american cord cutting customers who don't want to pay for larger, more extensive cable packages. it will cost $20 a month, and it will get yes the end, tnt, and cnn. the package does not include a single broadcast network. those are your top headlines. . > this was for just read by a couple tech experts. it is the first step. >> it is the first step if all

you care about is espn. >> the answer dish has is not the physical infrastructure but the contracts with those broadcasters. >> let's get on here because all week long on "surveillance," in the first week of 2015 "surveillance" is highlighting the smart guide to eurasia group , the top to watch for in 2015. at the top of the list -- politics of europe. at the bottom of the list is turkey. by the way, this marks turkey's second year in a row being at the bottom of the list, not a good thing. mujtaba rahman is the director. it is a big risk, but not big enough to overtake some of the other ones. the thing about turkey is it is a parliamentary system, which typically means a primus are, that we should watch, but here is the president wielding powerful stop why is that? >> he wants to revise the constitution to get the presidency executive power. the problem is he is not going to get the numbers to do it. the risk of social instability

increasing of potential attacks from the islamic states are risks that we do not think they will get the numbers. as a result, he will not be able to amend the constitution. we are looking at her to wine using soft influence to potentially dictate the policy agenda. >> the other thing is he has made a lot of wrong bets when it comes to cozying up to foreign leaders. he has consistently bet on the wrong guys, hasn't he. >>'s agenda is driven by the desire to amend the constitution. he is not willing to do much with the nationalists. >> i saw a dutch journalist arrested according to one source on twitter. brendan, i think the currency chart says volumes for turkey in the risk for all europe. karen, bring up the turkish lira. it has really broken through to a new weakness. >> i want to be very careful with this comparison, but there

is one way in which you could actually look at what erdogan is doing. we can talk about the things he is doing wrong and the fact that he is trying to amend the constitution, but he won a mandate. he is very popular in turkey. >> he is popular, but i think we will see the electoral gains take a hit. they need 330. it will come in well south of that number. >> what else you have in europe? the number one risk for 2015 is the politics of europe and specifically this mood of anti-eu populism. we're seeing in spain where pood demos went from 0% in 2010 -- the u.k. party of course, we are talking about it more and more when it was barely making a blip in 2010. to what do you attribute this to? the recovery in europe from the euro crisis not benefiting everyone? >> the highlight here is you can

make everything in the south look better. but the politics have suffered because the adjustment was very frontloaded, very aggressive. you have got syriza, that can win power. and they are going to challenge -- >> how is this going to be addressed? >> we have the marches in dresden, and i looked at the terminal, and the first mention at all is december 16 of this year, and that you have got 18,000 people marching every week. help me understand in all of these parties it seems like there is one thread, which is anti-eu, and then to varying degrees another thread which is anti-immigration. what to do those two things have in common? >> in the u.k., you have anti-immigration, and as a result you have seen cameron of the right to significantly on the question of immigration to really upset the germans, but also on the west of the eu

movement. we have the odds of the u.k. leaving europe in 2017, around 50% thereabouts. it is not insignificant. >> julian emanuel, u.s. equity strategist, does any of this affect the u.s.? to what extent does greece leaving the euro, even though angela merkel sees it as a possibility, what does that do? >> it is a question of confidence. multiples expand when investors are feeling more confident, and existential threats, whether it is a greek exit or continued instability perhaps in russia, are definitely going to affect investor sentiment and fund flows. >> do you see syriza winning in january? >> i do. i think the process to get an agreement would be very bumpy and in that scenario, you have potential contagions of france, italy, they are the countries that look bad now. >> mujtaba rahman, thank you so

much. and every week, someone from the eurasia group will join "bloomberg surveillance." this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are on television and radio. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu. let's get to top headlines this morning. a brutal commute in a chicago. snow started falling last night in the windy city. up to six inches are acted in some parts of the city and a subzero temperatures, wind chills as low as -30. that cold air is headed to the east coast. freezing temperatures from maine to d.c. get ready. website glassdoor raising money as a gets ready to ramp up its expansion. he financing was led by google's capital management. glassdoor is valued in the range of $1 billion.

and facebook acquiring a developer of speech recognition software as it tries to expand its artificial intelligence technology. the social network is buying wit.ai. the 18-month-old startup powers hundreds of applications to detect spoken words. mark zuckerberg has been financing research into artificial intelligence this last year. >> this matters now to our guest host, julian emanuel at ubs. he strategizes on strategy. that is a challenge as long as our price to perfection with a 10-year yield earlier this morning nicely below 2%. it is the great distortion, so distorted that we have a distorted view of the stock market. this is not funny for people aspiring to get richer. we have a completely nuts bond market. how do you link that over to what we do with equities? >> if you look at 2014, yields

be an far lower than anyone expected they would be was a positive for stock. with that the sentiment shifting, it may not be the case. in fact, what we like to say is the fed have the leeway to raise rates because that will be a sign that not only is the u.s. growing -- >> but that is part of the great distortion. if we revert to where we were two years ago, we are still nowhere near normal. there is a massive great distortion -- how to our viewers, our listeners go out and investigate then the generation of oil -- the gyration of oil, and issa rear -- and the surreal prices in germany, and france? >> when you have a bubble burst the way we did in the financial crisis, the normal recovery period is 20 years to 30 years. >> did janet yellen create a bubble? >> no, she is managing the

process. it is a difficult process will stop you have a debt that is in the process of unwinding. the debt is owned by government -- >> we all knew this. all of that is fine, but then if you get an outside or exogenous shot like oil, does that upset janet yellen's presumed applecart? >> what it does is be the catalyst of rate hikes. certainly within the context of a 5% gdp in the third quarter. >> what to did you see yesterday in the equity markets? how would you interpret the weight that we saw as we went negative three something yesterday? >> it was rather orderly, actually. >> i agree. >> people do not know what to do right now the beginning of the year. perhaps the markets ran further than -- >> this is critical. you brilliantly say this is an orderly retreat in the markets. how is that distinctive from a

cathartic shark moves -- cathartic shock move? >> a cathartic shock is what we might see in the next couple of weeks in the oil market, really panic setting in there below $50, but for the equity market you are close to high valuations that are ok, and with the u.s. economy growing as it is, the expectation for a good year is still there. >> do you have a tipping point on the doubt or -- on the dow or oil or the 10-year yield where you change your tune? >> we are not that level driven -- >> i am not making any news with you. you have got to get me some meat here. >> what you want to look at if he 200-day moving average. the s&p after two years broke through it briefly in september. let's look and see what happens again. >> julian emanuel any 200-day moving average. scarlet, i know you have that

tattooed to your left arm. >> i do. if you look at how futures are trading, we may end of that four-day losing streak. by the way, that four-day hike the longest in a year. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu here with tom keene and brendan greeley. >> the circus that is the consumer electronics show opens its big talk today. in just a few hours in las vegas. it is not a look at the future -- it is a look at what electronic companies desperately hoped the future will be. he last couple of years and has been smart tv's, now to smart houses, smart holding -- smart clothing. scott galloway, you have been to ces but you do not go to ces. do we need smart stuff? >> ces has become the community where everybody goes to meet but everywhere from ces, the tv's will get bigger and cheaper

-- which grant it is important but it is less and less relevant if you take up the fact that it is an incredible meeting place. what is the one thing that seems different or insightful that has come out of ces so far echo? i have trouble thinking what it is. >> we have a list. we are prepared. 1985 -- nintendo. >> so we are going back to 1985. [laughter] >> point taken. let's talk about tv's. a huge thing again at ces, the rise of the smart tv. do we want a smart tv or do we want a big flat, cheap screen? >> the core conference of tv is that it does not ask you to interact with it. it is a passive activity that is what we love with it. they have gotten pretty complicated, so you can do basic search will stop we have

android, sony announcing they will be on the android platform, samsung has developed their own platform -- which usually does not end well. also firefox is getting into the game. >> great. where is tim cook? >> we are weighted with -- we are waiting with bated breath for an apple tv, i agree. >> he is not at ces. we have got four people from apple at ces, 405 from amazon. >> apple is not social media either. apple takes conventional wisdom and pivots the other way, and it seems to be working so far. >> have you ever been there? >> i have only been to ces wants, tom. >> what is it like? >> a giant conference with a bunch of tv's and drones everywhere and attractive people wearing logo shirts. >> it sounds like heaven. >> where ces has done an amazing job is the folks at ces have

marketed this and turned it into an unbelievable event and gathering. if you are a.c.l., you say let's meet in doubles and get together, so it is the gathering -- >> how shattered is samsung right now? >> they are supposed to report earnings today. >> where is samsung right now? >> the entire world of business and retail is bifurcating into the value player at the low end and the value innovators at the high end. i never know how to pronounce this xiaomi in china is the value player, 80% of the value and then you have the innovator at the high-end, you have samsung who is turning into the jcpenney or seers of the world in the middle, which is an ugly place. i would love to hear your thoughts to geographically. the u.s. is the innovator, the asia, the low cost provider, and you have europe, china trying to

find the identity in the middle getting squeezed. i realize that is a databas -- is a bit of a stretch, but samsung is not realize if it is the innovator or low-cost provider. >> its cash, a deployed some in return some to its investors something apple is the mother with. >> sales of samsung down 26% in china. >> it did an amazing job of reinventing itself once. is that possible again? >> oh, sure. product of element and digital -- the best way to get a facelift for your brand is to come up with some kind of cool digital content. samsung -- fantastic management team amazing brand, innovating around product for stub do not count them out. this is a "what have you done for me lately?" business and innovation have come from a low-end and the high end and samsung has been squeezed for stop they are far from out full stop still a huge player and great company. >> scott galloway giving us a

preview of what to expect at ces. the net result is a will not carry over. coming up, we answer our twitter question of the day -- have low oil prices gone from good to bad for the u.s. economy? tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance."

i am scarlet fu here with tom keene and brendan greeley. a new year marks a fresh start for detroit. it finally entered bankruptcy eight months later. as for it has been the last two years taking itself out of a huge financial hole, so plenty of challenges ahead in 2015. "in the loop" anchor betty liu joins us now. we talk about how the automakers are doing well, but detroit the city still has to get it ducks in a row. >> right. isn't to be in the right direction. moody's last month upgraded their debt. they are still rated "junk," but they seem to be moving in the right direction after they declared bankruptcy. commissioner governor rick snyder says we have taken care of our structural problems and are now working our way out, but are they really? some say their projections of budget are a little too optimistic. they are still faced with thousands and thousands of lighted homes that have yet to be removed. they only restructures -- they

restructured about $900 billion of their debt, but they have got a lot more to go. they have got $1.7 billion in obligations. they say $500 billion of that is going to come from new revenue sources. where are the? is a property taxes? look at what property market has done. state revenue sharing, they have gotten a lot of their money from the states as well, but they are facing labor obligations pension obligations, all of that to say that perhaps the government officials may be papering over some continuing problems in detroit. we have got greg rayburn on, a day turnaround expert, who says he feels detroit may fall back into bankruptcy. >> betty way to kick a city when it is down. [laughter] >> i am giving a reality check. you got plenty of people in detroit, dan gilbert among men who say the city is well on its way but critics themselves within the city -- you should

read the detroit free press for instance. they want to give a written -- a reality check that maybe officials are papering over some of these problems. >> my wife's family is from detroit, and we have visited their multiple times every year for the last 20 years, and i will say that over the last 18 months, the mood has changed palpably. there is still plenty of issues but people are hopeful for the first time in my view in 20 years. >> it is going in the right direction. >> it absolutely is. there's going to be the auto show next week. it will be a lot of optimism, there will be fancy things on display -- >> does that hel -- is that actually held in the city? >> yes come in downtown detroit. in that section looks great in the area that it is held, but you only have to drive a few miles away and you start to the slums, the abandoned homes, and you wonder ok, how are they going to take care of that? >> absolutely. "in the loop" anchor betty liu, and you will discuss the

challenges ahead with the expert to greg rayburn. a lot more here on bloomberg television. we have changes in the retail industry that we want to tell you about. coach making a big change here, and of course we will bring you that, but also our twitter question of the day -- have low oil prices gone from good to bad for the u.s. economy? there seems to have been a sentiment shift here as oil prices continue to tumble. tweet us on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your smartphone, and bloomberg.com.. -- tweet us that is today's company news.

>> he is the republican republicans love to hate. the tea party cannot stand this guy, bruce bartlett, former reagan administration bartlett on the republicans in washington. bartlett on this raging of secured debate at the congressional budget office. we are thrilled to bring you bruce bartlett tomorrow on "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. scarlet fu and brendan greeley with me. >> china accelerating infrastructure projects. policy makers are trying to shore up growth slipping below 7% for stub according to people

familiar with the matter, it will be in seven industries including oil and gas pipelines health care, clean energy, transportation, and mining. a former divisor accused of stealing client data never intended to steal the end -- to sell the information. he says he is "extremely sorry for" his conduct, at least according to his lawyer. information for at least 350,000 wealth management clients was compromised and stolen. and coach is acquiring designer stuart wiseman. as the maker of luxury bags attends a brand transformation valued at as much as $575 million. coaches when trying to a lot of a slump by revamping its stores. >> i want to rip up the script and go retail retail, retail. sycamore partners is cool. is it troubled or just challenged, distressed, maybe

that is the better word. aeropostale -- what is stuart weitzman? >> they make those 50/50 boots with the leather in front -- >> are they midpoint? >> know, pretty expensive. midpoint in your world. >> i am pretty curious about code. scott galloway, i just look for #coach on twitter, and what i found was lujan is the star of a korean boy band at a coach store opening in seoul. julian emanuel a big fan. he will do moves in a second. we talk about slump, but this is still globally a very valuable brand. >> you say that as if we did not know about lujan. i think coach is a great brand and has been counted out. rumors of its death are or

exaggerated. michael kors has done a great job. let's get coach to come back. i like this acquisition, too. >> this is your wheelhouse, professor galloway. it is about 6% or 7% of sales will stop why did they buy a stuart weitzman, as the honorable -- as venerable as they are, why did they need a bootmaker? >> a lot of these great especially retail brands, form on the back of choose was up jimmy chu, louis vuitton, kenneth cole started out as a shoe guy, so they get great expertise here. it sounds like a win. >> i was curious about the menu were saying during a break about on the channel retailing. we hear a lot about it but do not hear much about anybody doing it well. just in terms of logistics, they're getting that right. >> macy's is doing $4 billion online consumers -- p replay

retail is dead. the gilts, the fabs of the world are going away. >> to the approach of the business of fashion the celebrity of it and what is in stuart weitzman i do not know like i know prado or louis vuitton -- >> it is known in westchester. >> fu: stuart weitznman does well in westchester. >> yes, it does. a home lifestyle brand launched by chris burch, the billionaire is closing up all of its stores. this was the guy who helped launch tour a birch -- tory burch. >> jonathan wald of cnn has been

seen in their four times. what is c. wonder? >> the most interesting thing about this is it is clear that the man behind the billion-dollar franchise tory burch is tory burch. a lot of people said the person behind the curtain was her ex-husband, mr. burch, but the reality is this was over before it started. it has not done well. but tory burch is a job or not. this is a chance for her to do a victory lap and say tory burch is brought to you by tory burch and no one else. >> julian emanuel thinking about the brooks brothers suit he wore 20 years ago. you and i have to consider these brands frankly. >> yeah, but i think this deal points out to something more important here. you have got companies obviously there is a bifurcation where the top brands are recognized and the middle sort of is too squishy.

if you have companies with cash, whether it is in the consumer discretionary space or other you have the flex ability to transform yourself, and that is what the themes that we think 2015, companies with cash -- >> i have to jump in here with a "bloomberg surveillance" correction. lujan is not korean, he is chinese, he but he is a member of a korean boy band that is designed to appeal in china. and he is more appropriate than i am, wearing a tie. i am ashamed here. [laughter] >> getting back to your point of companies with cash being able to reinvent themselves. will investors reward them? >> in the events, and it is part of our core view, that rates will rise at some point, you will get paid more to do creative things with your cash than to just give it back to investors. >> one olivia sterns said

simply, "scarlet is right, stuart weitzman is in a sweet spot, $300 to $500." tom, we are shopping at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. that from olivia sterns. >> let's get to our agenda right now. we already spoke of the changes in retail. let's get to brendan. >> i will take a look at samsung. scott galloway from nyu is just saying they are squeezed in the middle, neither value nor are they luxury like apple is, and they have gotten earnings coming out today, and the question is -- they make amazing tvs, can they make smart tv's that people want to buy? >> my agenda item is congress because they are back in session. there might be a snowstorm in washington, but they are gathering and supposedly getting down to business. >> is stuff going to happen?

>> in washington? not likely. >> markets will continue moving on without them. >> we will keep going to phil mattingly every day to discuss the nothing that is continuing to happen. >> there is a lot of nuance within a nothing. >> my nuance is correlation, a professional word for linkages and that is what people are looking for in this market. an ugly 4:00 a.m. -- things got better. oil $49.01. i look at the screen, brendan, and sometimes i do not know it is my same bloomberg screen. so much has changed in eight weeks. >> supply and demand, both is the answer. >> look at the german 10-year below 6.4%, traveling on the edge of japan. >> let's get to our twitter question of the day. we asked you all -- have low oil prices gone from good to bad for the u.s. economy? first answer -- all depends on the sector of the economy you consider. consumers equals more money, nuanced.

second answer -- good for consumer, bad for financial markets. qe is not so risk-free. >> a lot of things are links to qe as we look at the last few years. >> no great distortion. >> finally -- lower oil equals cheaper trans rotation increased as pressure income lower manufacturing costs, and cheap bowties. [laughter] >>all of that in 140 characters. >> that is the view of low oil prices as a tax cut. >> until people start panicking about what it says about the global -- >> you have got a strong u.s. dollar off of oil or vice versa and you get a cheaper bowtie. >> i don't know, my bowties are chinese. >> thank you for the comments on retail. >> julian emanuel with his $22.25 target for the s&p 500.

we have got much more bloomberg television this morning, "bloomberg surveillance" on radio continues, "in the loop" on bloomberg television with betty liu is up next. have a great rest of the day. ♪

>> good morning, it is tuesday january 6 and we are live from bloomberg world headquarters and you are "in the loop." we are 90 minutes away from the opening bell. oil is extending losses, now down below $50 per barrel and

stock futures are in the green rebounding from the selloff yesterday. we have two powerhouse guest posts in the loop. one of america's most expert's turnaround experts, greg rayburn. why he thinks republicans me are a ands there's a chances to try to fall back into bankruptcy. jim reynolds will walk us through the opening bell, the veteran wall street banker and former adviser to president obama gives us his take on another year of mega mergers and whether jpmorgan really should be broken up. first coming here's a look at our top stories -- a fourth straight day of losses for