>> millions on the march against ter rimp. world leaders. >> the irish drug maker bounces back after the botched takeover decpwhfment and an exclusive interview with a very british brand as they step out with a new collection in london. >> the hero is the product.

>> welcome to countdown. >> also coming up today the winners, the glitz, the blam more, the golden globes in hollywood. >> let's get back to our top story. france begins a new week with an unprecedented message of defines against terrorism ringing out across the world. questions remain over the long term political implications of the charlie killings. >> no fewer than 56 world leaders join the largest crowd in french history yesterday in the wake of three days of violence that killed 17 people, the french capitol is still on high alert. sharp shooters were positioned on roofs lining the route of the

march. >> among the millions of marchers, it was the simple example that empathy with the victim of the masacre that told the story. cartoonist pencils. now from paris, i suppose what a show of global dip plat i can support. it really captures the world's attention. what next for france after this very initial mourning and show of grief passes? >> this march was very historical moment for france. you had 3.7 million people across the country, 1.5 million in the streets of paris. some of the places like the republic square were very hard

to access so the march had to be divided in two. you had the families of the victims in the first walk followed by the 56 world leaders as you were mentioning. with some very rare image for example of benjamin netanyahu walking next to each other next to merkel and ramsay and all these leaders. many french people came with their families, their children. many attending a protest for the first time. as you were mention pping, these now very famous signs we are charlie. also signs saying we are policeman because two policemen were killed during the charlie attack. some signs saying we are muslims, we are juice, we are

all -- jews, we are all together and not afraid. you had an emotional moment when some men were hugging policeman thanking the police to protect the french people. the president said that paris was the capitol of the world on sunday and many many people here said they were proud to be french. >> give me a sense, you've obviously been following this story over the past number of days and had the week toned reflect. give me the sense of the mood of your friend and the french people at the moment. >> the mood is people are shocked. people are wanting this national unit tito continue. you see these muslims, jews and

christians, and generations working together. the question is whether this will continue in the next few days. there is an investigation going on as well. the police are still checking the authenticity n. this video he is pledging allegiance to the islamic state. there will be many debates on intelligence sharing, on the role of social networks, the roles of jails and whether this national unitty will continue. >> thank you very much. berlin the government is preparing new anti-terrorism regulations while americale has expressed concerns about what the events in paris will depodown to the protest movement. let's get to our international correspondent in berlin for the latest.

lots happening in germany today. first, what's been the response to events in paris? >> the official response is this new proposal from the justice minister and he wants to strengthen anti-terrorism financing laws. they'll introduce this in january and make it more easy to penalize german citizens or residents that may be traveling to syria and war zones and visiting terrorist camps. informally there is a great deal of concern from all of the parties, everyone except alternative for deutchland about the islamist proo test movements that started. last monday they had 18,000 participants. the question that is dominating the conversation in berlin today and over the week send how big will it go. in some ways it's going to be a

barometer for the backlash. there is a separate story we're following here and that is the ongoing violence in ukraine and peace talks. what americale's position has been and she spoke with puten on saturday over the phone and urged him to use his influence with the rebels in eastern ukraine to tone down their violence. her position has been she will not attend a summit on january 15th until there is real progress. we do expect foreign ministers to be meeting here in berlin from france, germany russia and ukraine to see if they can hammer out some sort of agreement. one side note on this, while she was in paris americale met with president of ukraine. it was a meeting on ukraine.

difficult to make progress on ukraine if you don't have the russians in attendance. >> thank you. >> after a very busy 2014 the pharmaceutical sector is off to a strong start this year offering $5 billion for the u.s. company. good morning to you. it's a focus on rare diseases they are going after here. >> it's called an excellent strategic fit when you dig into the press release. they are trying to install the virtues of both companies. based in the united states even though it's for tax reasons based in dublin, the management tends to be in the u.s. they are paying a fair premium. it's 10% more than it would have been on friday but 50% increase on the value back on december 16

which is when we first started reporting we thought a deal was on the cards. all about rare disease exer tees and the c.e.o. saying not only is it a strategic fit. he says we can afford it. it takes all the boxes. this all comes after the deal. they were hunting out for $52 billion. that fell apart. they got a nice amount of money. they have $1.6 billion to be able to spend. >> the timing is interesting because we're awaiting a big decision on one of nps's biggest drugs. >> may want to go early ahead of this drug they believe will be signed off on january 24. under the circumstances a drug to treat thyroidism. that's an illness that in the worst case scenario can cause see sures.

it's the first drug to treat this disorder. it's interesting thatshire wants to go early. they say it can help with the introduction and price tag if they go before january 246789 there is another drug they are still in the works but seem they shout a lot about that's a treatment for short bowl syndrome. they predict this drug could bring in $200 million in sales by 2016. two unproven drugs that are sensationalized in the press release. even though they are not proven they are willing to pay up for them at the moment. it's about adding to their rare disease pipeline. >> fleming's big defense was leave us alone and we will deliver value. this is his first strike in 2015. more deals? >> so interesting they are going back to the deals they analyzed

before abvery went for them. now as we say the company that was originally the target is out there targeting. they have this $1.6 billion. they have bank facilities in place so they have cash, money, there is a bit of a race on. we've seen america buy out which was a potential target forshire as well. they are trying to add to their rare diseaseport by aquiring. i think we can expect much more from them for the year. >> you can join the conversation on twitter. tell us what you are following today. the trending topics are golden globes tina and amy, the hosts of the golden globes and the big winner. i'll have more in our digital

pick section. >> coming up the ecb president is likely to unveil q.e. type policies at the january 22 meeting and the ure is likely to weaken. both are called by axel webber. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg this morning.

>> volume vo is poised to become the first auto make tore build cars in china for export to the u.s. market. the company plans to start exporting later this year. the move comes as part of an effort to boost volvo's u.s. sales by 67%. jaguar floons announce the addition of a sport utility vehicle begin begin in 2016 according to the sunday times. british carmaker will create 1300 new jobs to fwilled s.u.v.

jaguar will make the announcement this week at the detroit auto show. >> the rising u.s. dollar is catching one apple. the company raised its prices in its app stores across canada, russia and europe. the changes took effect last week and put entry level prices in the euro zone up to $.90. >> and q.e. policies. weber laid out his predictions for the euro in the year to come. >> you can see the mere discussion around having such a program has thepped euro come down to 118 and we're seeing

further depreciation of the euro to around 110. >> some analysis we're joined by j.p. morgan asset management. bloomberg news on friday broke the story that staff members presented policy makers within the ecb last week models for buying 500 billions euros of investment. is this enough? >> no, you look at 500 billion billion and that's unimpressive. the bank of england bought 375 billion of guilty. that figure needs to be a lot bigger. it needs another knot on it. >> different from when q.e. was introduced in the u.s. and u.k. does it suggest the risk is a lot lower?

does it suggest perhaps you don't need such a big bang these days? >> we would argue you need a bigger bang because you are coming to the party at such a late stage. the euro zone is less about greece. now q.e. is there for an exick reason. it's there because of depolice station. that means you need to bring the ba zach caout. it needs to be an overwhelming number. 500 billion is underwhemming. >> we've had a great deal priced into the currency. just hold that thought. what does this mean for the bond market science you had record low after record low in italy and spain and ireland. what wha does it mean for those prices relative to germany? >> well certainly that 110 on the euro could be one.

you could be looking at party at the end of the year. that means the euro market follows that japanese model and you get increasing amounts of negative yields, roughly 20% of the bond market is negative right now. that grows and have you 50% of the bond market with yields under 50 basis points that. grows. you have to anchor those bonds at very low levels in an effort to try and stimulate economic activity. >> could we have an entire negative yield curve in germany and what are the implications of that. surely that will push investors to riskier investments. >> going back to japan, even japan doesn't have negative yield as cross the curve. what you probably have is low yields and yields less than inflation. it means peripheral bonds.

they'll contract by half a percent from here. it means corporate bonds go down and european high yelleds could fall a percent. >> or medium yield you call it. >> that's right. something that yields 2.5 is medium. >> looking ahead to the greek elections, if you are not so worried about the effects from greece into other euro zone committees is there still room for to us get worried between now and the greek elections depending on what we hear about germany's attitude to any new greek government? >> it will flare up and down. ultimately the big difference are the firewalls they've put in place. the other big difference is banks. when you look at banks relative to a few years ago, banks are in pretty good shape. they've raised lots of capital. that say key difference. >> what is european high yield

because the world is changing? you liked european high yield. define what that is for me. what return would i get and what risk am i going to take? >> manufacturing companies that export things. the weak you're is great for that kind of company n. terms of returns 4.5%. we would argue the spread contracts by a percent. so you get a capital gain of a percent times by the duration of four or five years. capital gine of 4.5%, you are close to double digit returns on european high yield bonds. >> talk to me about the court of justices non-binding opinion on the o.m.t. program that was never used, that verked is a non-binding verdict comes on wednesday. it comes after the german constitutional court ruled that it probably overstepped the authority. what implications does that

non-binding ruling have on the ecb meeting a week later? >> non-binding is a key phrase there. it goes to the heart of central banks. central banks are orpting at the edge on the gray zone. ultimately what the ecb has done and other central banks is given confidence to markets and that is very unlikely to change going forward. >> thank you. we'll continue the conversation with him when we return.

>> nick, good job support but unimpressive wages. wageless recovery or non-boosted recovery. what should we worry about from these numbers on the jobs report on friday? >> the wage growth. the difference is consumers targeting real wainl growth because you've had inflation at such low levels. the key going forward will be company behavior. companies have to increase wages. maybe now is the time because there is momentum behind the economy. have you broth at 3% in the u.s. that's the high nest several

years. >> just a couple of weeks into the new year and people are reevaluating what they think the fed is going to do with their decrates trajectory if you like. they are suggesting the fed will move in the summer and go more slowly than the markets are pricing in. what's your thinking? >> they start in the summer and go every other meeting, something like that. and the first stange for the fed is to get the fed funds rate to zero. a zero real interest rate so in line with inflation. that takes to you 1.5, 2%. >> chances of the b.o.e. not going this year. >> both go this year. ultimately if you look at the economic cycle we are mid to late cycle. central banks have to raise interest rates because at some

point they'll have to cut them. >> international fixed income with j.p. morgan asset management. >> what happened when we caught up with the dunhill seal in

>> you are watching countdown this monday morning. markets are reacting to some of the data and conversations going on. wageless recovery is the message. the atlanta fed governor saying no reason to raise rates sooner. he votes this year, his opinion counts. what have you is dollar down euro just up. 1.1866. we just had a conversation

calling party on the dollar by tend of the year. the u.s. will hike by the middle of the year. the market is the most bearish since the end of november. keep an eye on the russian rubble as well as the trading day begins with gusto at 7:00 a.m. not only have fitch cut their credit rating to the lowest investment grade one step above junk but also the misery index in russia is up by near 40%. it is miserable in russia as greece and turkey. and the forecaster is saying get ready for lower levels on the rub. they say it will rarge between 75 and 77 in the first quarter and s&p go the same road then the assets will feel the pain.

that's chief economist at rbs. >> these are the bloomberg top headlines. the largest crowds in french history turned out to mark the nation's worst terrorist attack in half a century. 3.5 million people took part in the march. pencils in memory of the cartoonist who died in the attack. news of a big deal in pharmaceuticals. shire agreed to buy nps. a bloomberg exclusive the euro

depreciation yailting down to the u.s. dollar. >> the ecb has already indicated they would do something, they will postpone that and announce action. what in detail, i don't think it would be a government bond purchase program. it will be a mix of issues. it will corporate bonds and might be some condition on buying the higher graded government bonds in a larger proportion than lower graded. >> and divers have lifted the black box recorder from the air asia plane that crashed. it should provide information on altitude and speed. the search is on for the voice recorder. >> following the terror attacks in paris and the manhunts that followed. the president of the european

parliament announced allowing more transparency around the movement of citizens. good morning, sir. >> we have the e.u. interior ministers meeting yesterday. they plan to tighten external frontiers and improve the exchange of intelligence. how difficult is it to protect citizens from terrorist threats and individual liberties? >> it is difficult and there were moving images yesterday. in the light of that you want to have legislation that works. and that's the toughest thing to do. at the moment we have very good legislation, there is no question of that. but at the moment we have national legislation on foreign fighters in each individual country. but the moment i say that, all your viewers will think that really is the toughest area.

what was happening with the e.u. internal ministers yesterday they were searching for enhancements improvements. your viewers will be thinking in this tragedy is that the best moment to do it. and it's the only moment to do it. we have to find a way. what is happening now is we are looking for common solution. a passenger recommenders that's the gathering of nvings when we travel and other areas can we enhance the border control? these are very cons versele moments because -- controversial moments because it's the revelations about data collection. so that's the problem. and again viewers will understand that mass data collection is the context. you don't want to get into very expensive and very potentially

damaging situations. and that's our job is to make sure legislators do this properly so we keep people safe. >> obviously many very sensible conversations about sharing intelligence going on across europe and actions to be take an cross europe. at the heart of this was an attack that happened on french soil by people who were well known to the french authorities. it wasn't as if there was a lack of sharing information going on here or was there? >> absolutely. that means existing powers need to be implemented better. that's our job to tell the important truth that intelligence services are quite good at sharing information. they need to do that better and learn the lessons. >> act on it more? >> act on it more and we need transparency there. you guys are good at doing that because you are always pointing that out. what information was known and

do we need to do it. you are less deferential about that these days. you did point out you are doing your job in pointing these things out. that is important in keeping everyone safe. we also need to look at new laws. the european parliament needs to work with member states on this. we want our free movement but we have to keep people safe. that could be a very tough sale. that's what we're going to be doing the next several days. >> the fight against terrorism is principlely a national competence. the european union supports members in the following ways and supporting lots of ways. what do we need in europe closing borders a at the edge of radical. i use the word radical because we have domestic radicalation.

that's the issue isn't it? >> the history of france is different from the post colonial history of the u.k. if we misunderstand the roots of radicalization we are going down a naive road. foreign fighters legislation and criminal law and how we treat them when they come back. if we are naive and think when people come to syria and turkey and that has common travel plans and so on and there isn't an e.u. element to that we are being naive. already you'll see there is a syria competence there and quite rightly so. but again, all of this is hugely sensitive which is where we come in in terms of being the eyes and ears and not doing anything over the top excessive and

we'll come to regret. let me give you an example. the data retention directive that came in the light of the bombings that was struck down because it was mass data retention and didn't work. we want effective legislation that really works. >> 1,000 french citizens have gone to fight in syria and iraq and 200 brins have done the same. it requires teams of up to 20 operatives to conduct around the clock surveillance on a single suspect. so is it impossible to monitor returning suspected terrorist who never actually go abroad? is it an impossible snask >> had they do an extraordinary job and i have some insight into that. they can't do everything but they are being resourced well. giving them more resources can be a good thing. new laws is a sensitive thing

and we should demark those two things. >> thanks a lot. chair of the european parliament civil liberties, justice and home affairs committee. >> it's been a feast of fashion in the british capital this weekend with london collections men taking place. first for a very british brand who are holding their debut cat walk show. we caught one the c.e.o. >> i thought we had sound there. sound like we don't. >> men's industry is worth $12 billion nth british economy. have you an italian who had has come to the helm. they have a beautiful emporium. they have dunhill.

so we spent a bit of time with the c.e.o. and what he talked about there was i look at some of the imagery and about extending the brown a. peeling to 25-year-old in ternls of the cloth and prices. japan is rocking for them because they are dealing with their currency sis quite well. china the era of gifting is done. what he's doing is really trying to appeal to a younger audience. >> the breath the going to increase to a different kind of customers, younger customers. today we are mature clientele and we can capture clientele from 25, 30 and even more the mature one. >> what was he like?

>> you meet lots of c.e.o.s. this is a man that has a fight for his place. sounds like there is going to be exciting changes in terms of look format, style. this was their first time at london collection man. this it was first runway show. it was just around the corner from them. it's all about positioning. >> the price and architecture will be well balanced. we are an international first line positioning so we are not going to play in the market because it's a different. but still, i think it is extremely important today to a younger clientele to experience and understand this kind of work. >> it's all about the future of

this brand. it's a journey. we're going on that journey with these guys so we'll see a lot more, the luggage and coats. it was too late for my bedtime to go to the show so i caught up with it on youtube. beautiful grace, browns, and it's the kind of stuff you can put in your quite expensive bag. >> they are not pinpointing me and you. >> not me. they may be targeting you. >> we will take a short break but you can join in the conversation was we are having on twitter. plenty more on his conversation there with the dunhill c.e.o. coming up later the winners from the golden globes. stay with us.

>> oil dropped for the seventh week after officials reiterated they won't curb to halt the decline. great to have you with me this morning. we are seeing people writing

about the oil price drop this morning. volitility is dropping in the oil market. what's the sense in the region? are we near a bottom? >> good morning. obviously everybody is going bearish on oil and the reason is bracing itself for oil price around $40 to $50 for the short to medium term. my sense is for this to have an impact on the marginal shell produce in the u.s. we need to be here for some time, probably three to six months. i think people are conscious it's not a sustainable situation for the long term and that's where it's having serious effects on the economies. the short term i think people and investors realize that most countries in the region is ready

for that and has sufficient cushion from a reserve perspective to sustain it. >> tell me who politically -- who faces the biggest instability in the g.c.c. right now from these oil prices? who can't afford to see this go any lower? >> the most vulnerable economies today are beheran because they have break even budgets. and they don't have the same reserves that saudi or kuwait have built over the years. so from that perspective these countries are vulnerable in the short term. in the medium to long term saudi will become vulnerable to this, five to 10 years down the line.

they cannot sustain a fiscal deficit above 7% to 8% for five to 10 years. saudi has no problem sustaining these deficits short term. >> i want to get a sense of this because you are funded quite well. out performing the benchmarks by 23% last year. lower oil prices, russia anxious could be a little more. lower oil prices anxious in russia and a federal reserve on a fightening mandate brief. how does that translate to the alpha generation of 2015? >> i think 2015 is going to be interesting here. i think you'll see much more volitility and less direction and probably see a lot of dispersion and stock performance will be much more disperse.

this is where i think it's going to be a pure alpha generation environment and there will be big winners in what we call secular themes which would be still solid from our perspective. we're talking about the healthcare sector, the retail sector where probably the pet trow chemicals and other businesses will suffer more. i think the opportunity would be very attractive and a lot of differentiation in performance and one sector to another and businesses well run and well prepared for slower economic environment will do extremely well. this is where we base bracing ourselves for for 2016. it's going to be a very interesting year. what i would say is i don't expect this year to be as bearish as some people think.

think the g.c.c. economy will show people it's more resilient than people think. the government have not played any significant cyclical role yet and this is where i believe that the performance of the markets and the economy will be much better than people expect to be in the region. >> we're going to have to leave it there. thank you for joining thus morning. >> we'll take a short break. we'll be back after that break with our favorite stories from bloomberg's didgal out put including the latest from the golden globes. ♪

>> time for a look at our favorite stories from bloomberg's digital out put. we sell fwrate television shows we know and love and the movies north korea was ok with. tina fay with one of the many funny lines. it was an easy year to lampoon hollywood with the sony saga. the biggest story in hollywood was when north korea threatened anta tack if sony pictures released "the interview."

north korea refered to interview as intolerable and a wanton act of terror. that wasn't the worst review the movie got. >> >> i'm sensing a trend in the joke material. >> it's down to the awards. best film drama "boyhood." a quick mention eddie who of course played christopher stephen haw kin, professor in "the theory of everything." >> amazon picking up an award. >> and that trend where we see internet businesses picking up awards. >> there was a lot of debate around the charlie hashtag. back in 2014 there was a hashtag we were talking about for a while and that was bring back our girls. celebrities, politicians, many

don'ted that hashtag included my sell obama. there have been dozens after of attacks since. the fact surveillance has been curtailed and less cooperation around intelligence because of fears of leaks. thousands of people have been killed in the violence that's been taking place in this country. interesting to remember there are elections taking place next month in nigeria. >> i've gone for more of a market take. hadn't been so fortune. his second worst trading year on record in his career. worst was in the advantage plus one. that uses leverage. that lost 3% of its value last year. an event driven strategy.

then you had of course his other front which is the advantage with no leverage and that took a knock of 29ers in december. >> countdown continues in the next hour. stay with us. ♪

>> world leaders on the streets of france in memory of theose killed. >> the irish drugmaker bounces back after a botched takeover bid. >> an exclusive interview with a very british brand as they step out with their new collection in london. >> i think it was a personal weakness. ♪

hello, welcome to "countdown." >> a warm welcome to the second hour of the program. france begins a new week with an unprecedented message of defiance against terrorism ringing out across the world. millions took to the streets to show solidarity. the questions remain about long-term political doubled patients -- political implications of the killings. >> the largest crowd in french history in the wake of three days of violence that killed 17 people. the french capital is still on high alert. sharpshooters were stationed along the march. >> it was the simple empathy of the victims of the massacre the

told the story. >> caroline was at the march. she joins us from paris. >> this and they will go down in french history as the biggest gathering since world war ii -- this day will go down in french history is the biggest gathering since world war ii. 3.7 million people across the country. a very emotional and peaceful moment after the terrorist attack. opening the march you had the families of the iams, the survivors of the newspaper followed by more than 50 world leaders. angela merkel. -- you had the families of the victims, the survivors of the newspaper followed by more than 50 world leaders. many french people came with their children.

they said it was important for them to show their children that we are not afraid of this terrorism threat. you can see it's on the front page of every newspaper this morning. this is saying, we are the people. obviously, the signs mentioned, we are charlie we are policeman, but also, we are jews and we are muslims working side-by-side. you can see millions gathering around the square. many stayed very late into the night in order to defy terrorism and to defy these attacks. >> it is still very raw surrounding what happened, but as many people try to work forward, what sense do you get

about where the country is heading? >> the first thing is the investigation. there is a video. the authenticity is being checked, but it's showing an isis flag, pledging allegiance to the islamic state. there will be an investigation. there is a question about the whereabouts of the girlfriend, who is believed to have crossed the turkish-syrian border just a few days before the attack. there will be many debates on national security and intelligence across europe. >> thank you for joining us from paris. >> the government is planning new antiterrorist legislation

while the party has expressed concerns about what the events in paris made it to swell the anti-islamist protist movement -- protest movement. it's go to hans. a lot going on in germany today. foreign ministers are meeting on ukraine but first, what has been the response to events in paris in the last 48 hours? >> there was an interview published last night. the justice minister is preparing a new anti-terrorism package, and it would really focus on the financing of terrorism as well as increasing penalties for any resident or citizen in germany that visited terrorist training camps. on the more political side of things, all the parties except for alternative for deutschland are urging citizens not to take part in these protests. these are the protests that have their origin and this.

they had 18,000 supporters who came out last monday. tonight's numbers will be a barometer for how strong the sentiment has been growing in germany. over the weekend there was a suspected arson attack in hamburg. no one has claimed credit. shifting to a slightly different story, and that is the situation in ukraine. merkel made some time for a stop . she met with president hollande president poroshenko from ukraine. they talked about the situation in ukraine, and there will be a foreign ministers meeting here in berlin later today. what merkel has said is she will not be attending this leaders summit and kazakhstan -- in kazakhstan at the end of this

week unless there is progress today. she also spoke with mr. putin and urged him to use his influence to clamp down on violating the cease-fire agreement. >> on a separate matter but staying and europe, ecb board members have been making headlines. that's staying on europe, ecb board members have been making headlines. can you tell us why? >> it is about the idea of quantitative easing. they clearly expect bond purchases to start happening. as we get closer to the state, we are going to see more and more criticism from the germans. just what the plan is and what is driving desolation? is it just energy or something more fundamental? there will be more on this conversation. >> enqueue. hans nichols in berlin. >> after a very busy -- thank

you. >> after a very busy time, shy are more than $5 billion for in ps -- nps. a focus on rare diseases. >> an excellent strategic fit says the chief executive. it is about strategic fit. growth enhancing as well. he says, we can afford it. it takes all our boxes because the exact price tag of $5.2 billion. only 10% more than the price if you look at market value. a 50% premium if you compare it. the report started gathering momentum that they were growing in this area. scheier is no longer being bought for 10 times the amount it is now being offered.

that was a deal that fell apart. >> tomorrow is a critical day in the approval of a new drug. >> it is february 24 we understand the fda is going to say hey or nay -- yay or nay to a drug. it is very rare, but in worst-case scenarios, the condition can lead to seizures. we understand the drug could get signed up to u.s. regulators january 24. why go ahead with this? scheier is saying, we want to go early because it can help with production. there is another drug that already has got to sign off. it is expected to give $300 million in sales by 2016.

these are unproven drugs, but they are meant to do great eggs. it adds to the pipeline. -- meant to do great things. >> is scheier going to be on the attack again? what could this re-galvanize in all these -- is shire going to be on the attack again? >> it is re-galvanize them. they planned more m&a. that is on the agenda. they also have a nice bit of money. they have $1.6 billion, so extra cash to splash. they have said given the amount of cash we generate and our ability to take on further debt m&a is where we continue to build our presence as a biotech leader. that is where the ceo wants to take this company. it's a bit of a race.

the race is on to try and get all these other companies they want to use to be able to build their presence, and think about what 2014 was in terms of pharma deals. up 350% last year. $447 billion. will we see even more in 2015? >> it seems they are still doing these types of deals for other reasons. inc. you very much. >> join the conversation with -- thank you very much. >> join the conversation with all of us on twitter. tell us what you're thinking. caroline hyde is -- >> @carolinehyde. mario draghi is likely to unveil qe policies.

the euro is likely to weaken against the dollar. both of those in an exclusive interview. stay with us for more on that.

>> volvo is poised to become the first major automaker with exports to the u.s. market. they plan to start exporting as

part of efforts to boost u.s. sales by 67%. check your -- jaguar plans to add to the sport-utility vehicles. the british carmaker, which is owned by the company, plans to create jobs. jaguar will make the announcement at the auto show. the rising u.s. dollar is catching up with apple. the company raised prices in the app store. the changes took effect last week and put entry level prices and the eurozone up $.10. it is one of apple's are honest -- in the eurozone up $.10. it is one of apple's broadest. mario draghi is likely to reveal qe.

weber laid out his predictions for the year to come. >> you can see the discussion around having such a program has already helped the euro come down from one dollar 40 to one dollar 18. we're likely to see some depreciation. >> a bit of news from love honda -- louis vuitton the -- from lufthansa. unit costs will be slightly reduced. don't forget to keep an eye on what is happening across the sector after we saw another attempt to bid on aer lingus. >> let's get back to one of our top stories. paris tries to put the horrors of the past behind them. let's examine the political

implications for europe as they move forward and how much red tape gets cut to allow more transparency. let's bring in the head of the company. thank you for joining us. one of the big issues in france at the moment, there were many displays in the muslim communities, the jewish communities. there is a real wave of hope or and -- of corinth -- of abhoranc e to what happened. >> i think in the medium to long term we are not going to surge as much as some commentators expect at the moment. i think what we will see is a

spike in the short term. we need to be aware is that the event is quite high up. in european elections they took approximately 25%. in the last official poll on presidential election voting intentions the candidate took approximately 13%. the attack will help sustain support, but i also think the french civil society and the main political parties will make a push to mobilize in order to ensure they will become the main beneficiary and french politics will become more divisive. >> interesting to look at social media. does that give you any clues as to who gets support? you mentioned that. there is a lot more focus on france generally.

what does this tell you about where support goes? >> it is interesting. the candidate gained 18,000 new fans within 24 hours of the attacks. hollande gained fans but the most important thing was in between the attack and the polls taken on saturday his approval ratings went up 10%, which is remarkable, because he really struggled throughout footie 14 which was a horrible year for him. -- struggled throughout 2014 which was a horrible year for him. he might have a reopening to establish trust in his leadership. >> many muslims in paris live on what are called ghetto as states. -- ghettoized states.

is this what should be top of the political agenda, not only in france but across europe? >> i would certainly say so. on the one hand the rally we saw in paris yesterday was very encouraging. the largest rally in paris since 1944, an amazing display of solidarity and support for liberal values but we also saw more than a dozen attacks on muslim prayer rooms since the attacks took place. it is important to keep in mind that while social exclusion remains one of the key drivers that makes people susceptible to radical ideologies and in that sense i think governments across europe have to ensure social cohesion is not only maintain but improved again and also a

need to ensure populaces they are trying to tackle the economic foundations that make people more susceptible. >> i want to broaden the conversation. it is an almost on a quibble footing -- inequible footing. are you saying we could face more instability as some of these shifts come to play? >> we're certainly seeing this already. one of the key issues for companies is we are trying to understand how do these developments impact business? i think the rise of populist parties are a major issue. they introduce new elements of uncertainty into the political landscape. as long as the political landscape realigns itself, it becomes difficult to predict where things are moving.

with regard to the situation, if we look at sweden we have already seen how the populist forces, in that case the democrats have made it difficult to form a new government but also when the sweden democrats essentially declined to abstain on the vote on the budget it almost forced the incumbent government out, and i think this is a real implication of how populist parties impact the landscape. >> thank you for trying to help us make some sense of that. >> coming up, vw making a play to steal the detroit auto show before it even starts. the carmaker hit the 10 million auto sales mark as demand in china surges. stay with us for more on that.

>>. in's name desultory and -- volks wagon's name mentioned this morning. >> you need to sell more than 10 million cars, and you need to sell a lot in china, because that is where growth is happening. the chinese bought 23.5 million

cars in 2014. that is up from 2013, and the forecast is they could sell as many as 25 million cars last year. it is more than a third of the cars they sold globally. the car sales were up by 12%. vw has this 10 million figure we got from folks wagon yesterday. vw may have overtaken toyota as the world's largest carmaker. what we don't know is, and he cars toyotas sold in the fourth quarter. -- is how many cars toyotas sold in the fourth quarter. we do know volkswagen was behind, so they could overtake but in order to do that, they have to wait in china. >> thank you very much. there will be more on that as we

go through the week. a british brand hits the catwalk in london. find out what happened when we caught up with the ceo, next.

>> you are watching "countdown." how is the world looking at foreign exchange? the dollar is looking weaker. don't get to her read about raising rates -- too hurried about raising rates. the euro-dollar getting back some of its gains. the chair of ubs spoke to us in hong kong. we had a conversation with jpmorgan asset manager. he calls it.

he. how they are all moving to the left very quickly in terms of where the euro-dollar -- how quickly they are all moving to the left very quickly in terms of where the euro-dollar is. i can tell you how the market is decisioning itself. it is adding to its bearish bets on the euro-dollar. the russian ruble, if you are looking at volatility and you want to experience some moments of tension, this is the currency to trade for. let's have a look at the chart. you have the ruble declining. the most accurate forecaster for the ruble is saying you are going to have a movement to 75, 77 against the dollar in the first quarter. the misery index, if you thought it was tough in greece and turkey, it is miserable in russia. unemployment has risen. missouri has risen 39%. belarus rouble 62.78.

-- the dollar ruble is 62.78. >> 3.7 million people took part in demonstrations across france. world leaders join the marches. there were placards bearing #je suischarlie. the drugmaker shire has agreed to buy nps pharmaceuticals. the deal will add medicines for rare diseases to the offerings. shire is paying $46 a share in cash. that is close to a 10% premium on the closing price on friday. the chairman says he sees the euro depreciating further to the end of the year, down to 1.10

against the dollar. he also says they are likely to unveil qe at the next policy meeting next month. >> the ecb has indicated they will do something. they will now postpone that. in detail i don't think it will just be a government bond purchase program. it will be a mix of issues. it will be sovereign debt. it will be corporate bonds. it might be some condition on buying the higher graded government bonds in a larger proportion. >> divers have lifted the black box data recorder from the wreckage of the airasia plane which crashed into the java sea. the data recorder should provide information on the altitude and speed. the search is on for the cockpit voice recorder more than 30 meters below the surface. >> lets to do the oil and gas

sector with crude trading below $50 a barrel -- let's go to the oil and gas sector with crude trading below $50 a barrel. prices could continue the downward spiral. let's welcome philip, the oil and gas analyst. thank you for joining us on the program. when you are trying to work out where oil prices go in 2015 where do you live? you look to the u.s.? you look to iraq? do you look to the saudi's? where is your focus. >> the old ones 70% comes from oil. these will be most hit. the profitability will suffer from this price. they could close down earlier. >> opec seems determined to drive oil lower, to put pressure

on u.s. shale producers despite a decline. what price is opec not comfortable with? what's it's difficult to say. it's one of the best kept secrets for the saudis, what their costs are. their costs are very low. it's more a question about how long will the oil price stay this low and what project will go first. the u.s. shale producers can focus on their most prolific assets but they have debt to pay. if the oil price stays long for a prolonged time on the level it is now, it will probably not be the saudi's first -- saudis

first. but they have made huge capital expenditures. -- >> they have made huge capital expenditures. at what point does shale become less profitable and rapidfire closure? >> the difference between shale in conventional oil is very flexible. it can adjust to the oil prices. there are areas in the u.s. where it is cheap to produce oil from shale, and there are areas where it is not as cheap. the areas that are not as cheap and the companies that came into this business later among them european oil companies, they will have problems reducing profitably, but the specialists in the u.s. that have prime real estate in the area and can produce cheaply, they will be able to produce for a longer time. >> goldman sachs have been cutting their price targets. down in the first three months.

are those the kinds of numbers that increasingly the market is talking about? >> right now we are at the level that is rock bottom for many oil companies. many of the european oil majors expected an offer of around $40 to $50 for their long-term oil investment projects. this is still viable. they may be delayed but they can still produce. where it is more of a problem is the oil fields that might be shut earlier and no longer economically viable. >> what is the production outlook for countries like libya and iraq? >> when they they can produce it hundred thousand barrels a day and the next day it is being shut down and the next day if 300,000 barrels a day. the typical maximum for libya would be above one million barrels a day.

that is what they wanted. currently, libya is in a state that is difficult to predict what the average production is going to be. >> and iraq? >> iraq is a bit that her. -- better. they have kurdish exports going on, so they say the long-term goal is 4 million barrels a day. they might be on the way to get there. >> thanks for the outlook for 2015. let's look beyond oil and focus on other matters. joining us with investment strategy the chief executive of armstrong investment managers. you remain negative on crude oil for the long-term, but you've made 40% betting on oil recently? what is your take? >> i think the question is how

low of a price the saudis and except -- can accept. they can sustain much longer keeping in mind the cost of production and i think they are quite aggressive in trying to get increasing market share. they are going to squeeze some of the marginal producers out of the markets. i think the price can comfortably go towards 40. >> what are the investment opportunities around the oil price right now? >> currently we have taken our bets off the table and will be looking to see when it is a good i opportunity. now we are looking -- a good buy opportunity. now we are looking at other opportunities. we have a question about fundamentals and liquidity. here we have to say we are going for liquidity. the trades we are implementing, really the dollar is going to

strengthen further and the euro is going to weaken. qe has weaken the currency and bolstered the equity markets. not in europe. >> we will talk about that in a minute but before we do, it has been the while the start of the trading year since 2009. what do you do? do you see those drawdowns in market as strategic opportunities in europe and the u.s.? >> the u.s. market has been appreciating for seven years. this has not happened since 1879. we like the euro zone. if you look at european banks, they have increased capital. they are paying great dividends much higher.

90% are paying dividends. they have recovered quite well. the european equities are one of the other major outflows. we are looking at different opportunities in the eurozone like asia. between u.s. and china correlation has fallen to 0.3%. they are liberating the financial sector. we're looking for different opportunities in those markets. an abundance of liquidity. they will be supporting easing monetary policy. >> we are going to come to you in a second. she joins us again after the break. >> we will take a break. you can join the conversations on twitter. you will find all three of us there. we have had some pretty bearish calls on the euro in the last 24

hours. >> axel weber, the man who knows. >> cheap you morgan says parity by the end of the year. -- jpmorgan says parity by the end of the year. >> coming up is the aussie kiwi heading towards parity? don't move.

♪ >> time for today's bar chart. is the aussie kiwi heading for parity? the big question is the talk of traders as australia's currency has never traded at parity against the new zealand dollar since the exchange rate started floating freely back in the 1980's. this is the aussie kiwi going back to 1984, and it shows on wednesday last week bottom right-hand corner of the screen. the aussie flopped to 1.03. it is the closest it has come since 1984. it has come close before on june 30, 1985. december 31, the red circle,

2002, it went to one point 07 new zealand dollars, but never this close. the aussie dollar since this point has slumped more than 7% against the kiwi. that is more than any quarter since 2002. the big question is what is going on. pressure is building on the australian central bank to cut rates. the economy is struggling from a slide in economy prices. the housing boom is driven by the reconstruction of christchurch following up on the earthquakes of 2010 and of 2011. new zealand raised interest rates. now they are the highest in the developed world. the rbn is even talking about the need to raise burrowing costs even further. david bloom is hsbc's head of currency strategy. he says, could australia

suddenly smell the coffee and cut rates? it's entirely possible. you can hear david bloom say that. you have got parity. hsbc is the top forecaster for the aussie last year. it has been joined by the commonwealth bank of australia and the anz bank new zealand. it says parity is increasingly likely. the national australia bank, which is a top forecaster for the kiwi, disagrees. a drop by the aussie wouldn't underline the divergence alone. it could be a psychological blow to australia, because its economy is lagging that of its neighbor for the first time in almost a decade. watch this chart. history could be about to be made. >> in terms of making history on calls in the market, it is the

armstrong investment ceo. we were talking commodity currencies. david bloom, boom. he heard it. they had a torturous year. what is your trade of 2015? >> we like u.s. treasuries. that's a nice way to have more exposure in the u.s. dollar. began will continue to depreciate. -- the yen will continue to depreciate. the bank of japan says it is very convenient. it is clearly hurting south korea to be the next competitor in japan. pmi is suffering, due to the slowdown in the economy.

the property sector is still adjusting. the country needs a weaker currency. more opportunities exist in the emerging market bonds. >> tell us about the existing types of emerging markets. you draw distinctions between the commodity related emerging markets and the industrial countries. >> a slowdown could have a good impact on countries such as turkey and india. we are avoiding equities of those countries. >> give us one trade for 2015. >> apart from the obvious one which is longer dollar. >> give us a less consensual one. >> i think it would be chinese equities right now. >> they have had a good run. >> i think the a shares will be

a part of international benchmarks. it just means if chinese equities -- start, they will have exposure to a certain percentage. that could be a huge trigger. japanese equities do not look bad at all. i understand there is a problem with fundamentals. liquidity can be a winner. their increasing exposure to 35% . >> i understand there is a problem with fundamentals. >> liquidity remains everything. >> unless there is some sort of panic case. >> there you go. japan doesn't look so bad. inc. you -- thank you so much. >> seven: 50 in london.

you are looking at a live picture of the equity is about to open for the first trading day of the new week. we will be back in a few minutes time. you can see futures pointing down just a little bit.

>> we are just a few minutes from the start of the equity session. what are we watching today? >> keep an eye on the deal we

have been watching all morning. shire is going to be buying nps. people like this deal. they like they are going to add to the rare disease expertise. shire is listed in ireland. it is a dublin-based company. they factor in the u.s. all the management seems to be in the united states. interesting it is him in a. -- it is about m&a. >> it is $1 billion. >> it's not that big. it's funny. >> $1 billion is a lot of money. >> one billion is quite a lot. they are spending it for a majority stake in foundation medicine. this is about testing for cancer. we know this is the biggest

drugmaker when it comes to cancer. it's about streaming for tumors. it's all about trying to use your own body to fight cancer your own immunity. this is what russia is currently investing in. m&a calling the acquisitive spurs -- the people who are buying. you have got rbs once again took a singer domestic market. ross mcewan has been trying to bring it back to the united kingdom, bring back risk assets to focus on the u.k. now we understand the asian corporate business could be up for grabs. it could affect 2000 employees in the asia-pacific. india as well. foreign exchange, interest rates, fixed income. >> we lost your microphone. >> a bit of a technical problem. >> we are going to leave it there.

>> our european business correspondent, caroline hyde. >> "on the move" is next. and forecasting a lasting bull market. we will talk about that this morning.

>> good morning, and welcome to "on the move"." moments away from the start of european trading. oil slides this morning. rehn drops to $48 a barrel as goldman sachs -- brent drops to $48 a barrel. scheier get the deal. --s shire get the deal. an effort to boost growth after the proposed sale collapsed last year. bloomberg learned the u.k. lender is ready to put most of

its u.k. corporate business up for sale. ross mcewan is said to hold a series of meetings in singapore today to consider a way to scale back the business. i am looking at futures. futures markets pointing a little bit higher. euro stoxx 50 up. dax futures up over 60 points. it is manus cranny. >> $6 billion. that is the number we have got in terms of deals. you mentioned the shire pharmaceuticals deal. roche in switzerland. shire in ireland. a bit of tax issues but it is pharmaceuticals month one, week two. pharma takes the crown. some interesting things in terms of how equity traders are positioning