>> on john heilemann. >> and mark halperin. and this is a vista. >> live from hollywood, it is "with all due respect" featuring mitt romney possibly appearing act, jeffrey tam more, and other red carpet encounters. and shot in california at the house of fred davis, the man known in tight political circles as hollywood, whose career includes short films about demon sheep and a witch. and here are your coast -- here are your hosts, mark halperin and john heilemann. >> thanks to charlie.

we have a great show for you tonight here in the hollywood hills. let's start with the only topic we could think about all weekend even while we were pounding meant juleps -- willard mitt romney and the possibility he would run in 2016. we talked to him about whether he would draw from the same donor class as jeb bush. >> i think jeb is an excellent person and would be a traffic president. i think that about a lot of people running on the republican side. among this people we will find someone who catches fire and ignites the interest of the republican base and someone who can go on to become president. that's why i said i'm not running, i'm not planning on running, and i've got nothing new on that story. >> all indications are he is serious about running. what does this mean about the guy without was a front runner jeb bush. >> nothing good.

when you think about what he's done with these unexpectedly aggressive moves, it's mostly about tying up donors. it is mostly about money. mitt romney is, among all the potential establishment candidates, he's the only one that could freeze donors from going to bush. mitt romney's donors are very loyal. >> the silver lining to me for bush is if he wins the nomination fight he will have beaten other strong candidate and it will make him stronger and it will be a better story and he will get more attention, but this will test bush. romney's strength -- he has run for president. he is clearly rusty. >> if romney freezes the establishment bracket and scares away people like john kasich or scott walker who think i can't compete with chris christie, jeb bush and mitt romney. and then mitt romney decides he's not going to run, it could leave bush and a better position.

>> we have not heard a lot of dissenting voices, and i expect a wave of that but romney is getting a lot of encouragement. in part because the press loves the notion of a romney -bush-christie battle. let's see how romney does. people like john boehner and other republicans are not thrilled about it. >> people are going to start pointing out that romney was a horrible candidate in 2012 and hasn't done anything to make himself better. jeb bush is not the only one for whom the prospective entry of mitt romney changes the game. if both of them decide to run the presence of these heavyweights would reshape the republican contest. who would benefit, if anybody and who does it hurt? >> the big winner is chris christie. in a three-way race, two guys who cannot claim to be new, two guys who are not all that great

with sharp elbows, christie sneaks up the middle. and this is not a guy who can sneak that easily. it hurts scott walker. i never thought scott walker could raise serious money. next i think there's a chance that it hurts christie because suddenly these donors who have concerns because of the bridge gate -- if they have to choose between romney and bush. >> chris christie knows how to raise money. i think christie will have enough money to make a run and he's got skills the other guys don't have. >> paul ryan announced today he's not going to run for president. to me, the big winners are everybody who's in the nonestablishment bracket. we all assume that broadly the establishment leader will be the nominee. the party may have changed enough this year to give

daylight to the anti-establishment wing. if these guys are beating the hell out of each other, someone like rand paul could consolidate the grassroots. >> these guys will be dominating the coverage. >> they will be killing each other. >> these are guys who care about policy in a serious way. you have had people like bob dole and john mccain who are not guys that get deep we immersed into policy. as i think of those guys as policy geeks of the highest order. >> they are all governors, not senators. those guys would take up a massive amount of space. people like ted cruz or rand paul, their lane becomes a little more open, but the establishment lane dominates. >> i will tell you who it is best for. >> hillary clinton. >> journalists. >> today's reason to be a reason

-- to be mad at barack obama comes from france. no major surrogate from the of ministration went. today, josh ernest conceded the white house had made a mistake. >> some have asked whether or not the united states should have sent someone with a higher profile than the ambassador to france, and i think it fair to say we should have sent somebody with a higher profile will stop >> you don't normally see a white house admit error like that. now that josh earnest has punctured the balloon, is this story over? >> let's pause for a moment. you never see it. they go out of their way to try to deny it. i think it is over. i don't think it's anything long-term.

>> it's not over for a good reason. the white house really has to become engaged. the next several steps, the need to be more involved in a learned the lesson people want in american leadership. there's lots in the press and the white house did make a mistake. it's not just admitting it to try to move on. >> the idea eric holder was in paris and -- and was not involved -- if you couldn't send biden -- you have to get someone. >> i'm grateful the president did not go golfing yesterday. >> that would have been a bad day for all of us. today in hollywood on the morning after the golden globes, it's all about winners. so we are going to do a winners circle's deed round starting with the senate seat barbara boxer will be vacating. one person widely touted as a potential candidate is lieutenant governor gavin

newsom. he took himself out of contention today. who is the biggest winner? >> former los angeles mayor antonio vieira goza. if he enters this race i think he's got a lot of room on the liberal centerleft here to run strong. >> one of the people you would think is kamala harris, but i think she wants to run for governor and i think newsom wants to run for governor. so the thing that people thought was going to happen -- my winner is tom stier, billionaire environmentalist. >> he will never win in california. >> tell that to meg whitman. -- >> who was the triumph of the night -- director of best film

of the year -- richard linklater. people thought maybe it's not a golden globes film. the fact that when they golden globes means without a doubt it will be named best picture at academy awards. they will win huge, oscars. >> i thought "boyhood" was a lock for best picture. i'm going to go into the acting categories. i'm always about julianne moore and i think she's more of a lock but my big winner last night was michael keaton, not someone who is going to win that way -- when that race. michael keaton, a very emotional speech. it's a great movie and i think he's the pole position to win the oscar, so he's the big winner from my point of view. finally, the most ostentatious of analyses -- who have you got in the college football

championship, oregon or ohio state? >> like bill murray, i believe in a cinderella story. they had injuries, adverse, they've been through a tough conference, i've got to pick the buckeyes. >> this is because you are a woody hayes guy. i on the other hand love oregon, love the offense, love the passing, the dynamism -- they are going to score 60 points. >> only three things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad. >> not much bad has happened to oregon over the course of this year. >> coming up, we have an insider chat with fred davis. he will be here along with the great bob shrum to talk about the day in politics. ♪

>> when we asked fred davis is we could do they show from his home, he said yes. so long as we include him and this baby right here. this is the inspiration for his famous demon sheep ad by carly fear enough. he's never featured any possessed livestock in his clinical ads. i'm going to move the sheep now and ask a question drawn straight from the headlines. mitt romney says he's thinking about running for a third time. we will probably ask you about what the political implications are. you've worked with a lot of people -- what is mitt romney thinking if he is serious? fax i don't know what bob thinks, but i've always thought -- >> i don't know what bob thinks, but i've always thought

romney has always thought from the day he's born should be president. third time's the charm. >> i may disagree about the plausible part. >> having denny campaign against him in massachusetts, -- having done a campaign against him in massachusetts, -- i'm reminded of a story george mcgovern told me about walter mondale which was three or four years after the 1984 campaign mondale said to mcgovern when does it stop hurting? mcgovern said never. those guys lost big. i think somebody who loses by three points, who thought he was going to win, i think the ache the desire, the internal impulse to go for it again is strong plus he has a lot of people around him telling him he should. >> you know he does. say both jeb bush and mitt romney are in. handicap that.

>> i would defer to fred but i would that on bush. i think he's more likely to be the establishment choice but i think that's more complicated that it has been in the past. every cycle, it's getting harder and harder for the establishment to impose choice. if the field is fragmented, they probably do it again, but i would bet on bush. i think that's where most of the smart money would go. i think there's a general consensus, fair or unfair that romney did not run a very good campaign in 2012. would go the same route. even though his name is bush, jeb is the newer deal. >> the country is looking for a fresh new change. >> how about the back to the future election with push and clinton? >> i want to ask this question.

we all basically assume because it has been the historical reality in the republican party that the establishment candidate ultimately staves off the grassroots candidate to become the nominee. the party has changed a lot. is there a chance the establishment candidate does not and that the nominee and the outsider candidates have the leg up? >> for sure, bush and romney getting in helps those other candidates in or mislead. these people are getting serious. scott walker -- >> let's say christie gets in and you've got three heavyweight establishment candidates. we haven't seen anything like that since 1980. isn't it possible they crowd out the antiestablishment candidates?

>> and the money. the money is the key element. which of those three gets the money? >> bush is going to get it. >> isn't it possible romney gets to keep 80% of his donors? >> or he can write a check which has done before. i think christie is the most hurt. >> how are you sure bush can out raise romney? >> every republican strategist i talked to, and i do talk to some, they say bush looks fresh if he can get to the general election his relative moderation on immigration and some other issues can help him and republicans desperately want to win in 2016. >> you never it a lot of speeches for a lot of people. put aside the questions of ideology and policy and think about the entirety of the republican field and all the potential. who is the best to me to cater

-- who is the best communicator? >> certainly not romney. ted cruz in some ways is the best, but he communicates -- what he communicates tend to alienate people not only in a mainstream electorate, but among a lot of republican to say we could lose 35 or 40 states if he's the nominee. but he's a very effective communicator. >> my auto answer would be christie. i've seen him in action. behind the scenes there are stories he's different, but he's very effective. >> my only problem is the oneness becoming bullying. >> bullying is the behind-the-scenes question. >> do you agree with the conventional wisdom that in the 96 hours since romney has spoke,

that is good news for clinton? >> i tried to think about that this morning. on the surface, it is. you say this is great, she has a relatively free run, she gets to go spend primary money on the general election, which is a tremendous advantage. >> like an incumbent. >> she is a quasi-incumbent. on the other hand, if all the drama is on the other side and all the interest in news on the other side, and someone like jeb bush can get to the nomination without putting themselves in a kind of position romney did where he looked almost ridiculous. if they had asked romney anything, he would have agreed to it to get the nomination. where did self deportation come from? that was crazy. >> what is the biggest risk for her? >> the biggest risk for not being challenge are being

challenged? what that she have to do? >> the biggest risk is the past. mark and i were talking about that. she has to negotiate around that. to add to what bob said, what this giant group of republicans running for president has said is that she's anything but inevitable and at the end of eight years of obama, history is on our side. >> gavin newsom said he's not running for senate will stop is the most likely person to win the boxer seat? >> kamala harris. >> kamala harris will stop hard me on the name. -- >> democrats who rely on the hispanic vote will have to novel they -- have to nominate hispanics for office. i would not write off antonio vieira goes up as a candidate

who could come to the primary. >> who would be the strongest republican to run against any of those democrats? >> two words would be no one. >> you could run the sheep ad again. that was performance art. >> thank you very much. >> probably charlie munger. somebody with tons and tons of money. thank you for doing this. when we come back, that time george clooney told us he loved us. the invasion of the golden globes red carpet is next. ♪

>> john and i have spent our entire career with sycophantic, self-serving sycophants. here's what we saw and heard last night.

>> i hope you get some political insight from the golden globe carpet. >> we cover politics. >> don't ask me these questions. >> governor romney says he might run again, what do you think about that? >> he can run, but he can't hide. >> governor romney says he's thinking of running. what do you think of that? >> everybody has a right to run. this is america. >> what are you looking for in a president in 2016? >> someone who's able to go into washington and unlock the logjam. >> what are you looking for in a president? >> i'm ok with what we've got. i think we have a very good president right now. we need a better, more informed smarter population. >> i'm so uncomfortable talking

about politics, yet i play a whose job is all about politics. >> i would like to see that sort of figure leading the country, maybe not achieving office the same way grant sumner does. >> who has a better chance, you are mitt romney, being president of the united states. but i think i've got it. -- >> i think i've got it. >> i wish i was most like her in real life. >> let's get the deep thinkers will stop let's hit the long ball. >> that's how i order my breakfast. >> a lot of fun last night. probably my favorite thing was jeffrey temblor. -- tambor.

he came back to do take two. >> he understands the power of a sequel. >> what did you learn last night that you did not know about covering the red carpet? >> you've got to be loud. with all of those people cheering and calling it to does famous people, if your voice is not like able mourn, they won't even notice you. >> and in case you did not catch it, george clooney said he loved us will stop >> it might not be the first time he has said that. -- ♪

>> today at the white house, the san antonio spurs the did with president obama. and guess what came out of the mouth of the coach -- an explicit reference to this program. >> what i want to remind the

president about, if i might, with all due respect, when i sit stars, i get find. he doesn't. >> we are on the two one half hour every day and we're live on bloomberg -- on bloomberg politics.com. ♪

>> hello, i'm pimm fox and this is what i am "taking stock" of on this generate 12, 2015. crude fell more than 5% after goldman sachs forecast it would trade at $41 a barrel in three months. u.s. stock followed oil decline losing less than 1%. lower gasoline prices are putting consumers to consider buying bigger and less fuel-efficient automobiles, but that did not prevent gm from unveiling a new chevy volt hybrid in detroit today. the general motors