>> i'm mark halperin. >> and i'm phil mattingly. and "with all due respect" to john heilemann, bet against ohio state, and you just may be replaced by a buckeye. whoo! >> we were not sure we would be talking about mitt romney in 2016 on tonight's episode because it is sort of yesterday's news. but then rand paul weighed in. >> if i know jeb bush, he will still be to the left of the rest of the party. it may be a difficult place to

occupy. i liked governor romney. i think he is a good person. he's a great businessman. but that's yesterday's news. >> rand paul never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. is this the way people outside the big three will try to get attention going forward? >> it doesn't hurt. people will pay attention to it. with one candidate trolling another, doing anything of that sort, it will work. another thing you can pretty much count on, solid digital strategy, more or less trying to get out there is much as possible. that is what we pay a lot of attention to. >> paul and ted cruz are notorious for it. but who is spending their limited resources looking at what do we say? the challenge -- no matter how rhetorically bombastic they are -- you have three heavyweight candidates. bush, christie, romney.

you attack one -- or do they have to come up with some critique about all three to make it work? >> i think that is it. but that critique exists. if you go after these three big candidates you're going after the establishment -- >> what do you say besides the word “establishment”? they are old? liberal? what is the unifying theme for the outside critic of these three? >> on jeb bush, chris christie “establishment” is code word for not far enough right. code word in the primaries that matter early on. these guys will not resonate. that is what what they will latch onto. >> i have got to say -- we know that ted cruz and rand paul will do it. i want to see if carson, huckabee does it. if they do not, they will be left out of the conversation. all right, obama, biden, boehner, mcconnell, a bunch of other congressional leaders.

it took an enormous amount of guacamole to feed that group. what is the state of the union between the president and the congressional leaders, particularly the republicans? >> there is recognition that one needs to exist. a lot of copy has been written about how bad the relationship is between the white house, the president particularly, and congress. john boehner and mitch mcconnell like each other personally. there is no relationship there. people are in wait and see mode. they want to know what could possibly happen. i do not think they will have a lot of time to wait in wait and see mode with the president rolling out four or five veto threats in the last week probably does not help. >> the president lifts cyber security. with all due respect, not that big an issue for most people. trade. divide the president from

democrats. it's hard for me to believe you are going to do. it goes back to bad relations. can the president really take on pelosi and reid? what are the chances of that? >> they will give it a shot, if for no other reason that it is so central to the pivot, a central component of the foreign policy. to your point, trade infrastructure spending, and taxes. if you say it again, you will get nauseous. i am not buying it. we need lower hanging fruit. i think that cyber security represents it. you will see a lot of speeches by governors. they call it the state of the state.

it is basically the state of the union, but the networks do not take them live. you can watch them all on bloombergpolitics.com. we had chris christie's state of the state and guess what? it sounded a lot like a presidential address. >> this administration has always believed that new jersey will be better when we shrink the size of government at every level. we need to renew the spirit and hopes of our state and our country and our people. a removal of our commitment to the simple believe that our people deserve better, that a bloated national government that imposes costs on our state which in turn suffocate our people. >> governor christie had some moments where he was trying to elevate those remarks. is this what he is taking on the road? >> i was kind of stunned at how explicitly it was a national

speech in talking about national example. not a new jersey citizen, but a woman from florida you talk to while he was out in the country. i think what we saw were things that separate christie from the other candidates, romney and bush. one, he is a sitting governor. there are tons of downsides, but it allows them to talk about stuff that is going on. he is a better communicator than romney and bush. on their best day, they are have as good as christina -- christie is. and the guy is a brawler. he is still brawling. bush and romney are just not brallwers. part of the reason why romney considered christie as his running mate was he thought he needed a brawler then. >> how much will he have to defend that, go on offense on that or can he go above it? >> you will see opposition

research against him saying he could not turn his state around. how can he turn the country around? he has got to hope and pray economic conditions get better while he deals with the legislature. he will have to grapple with the legislature in the spring. >> we are also going to hear from mike pence, scott walker tonight. susana martinez, rick snyder next tuesday. i will be recording them all just as soon as i clear my dvr of the last six seasons of "dating naked," but clearly chris christie is the national coverage. who else will break through? >> christie is a national figure. i do not know anything mike pence could say, even scott walker who gets a fair amount of national coverage.

they are part of their stay conversation. all those other governors, they need a more sophisticated operation. you had the national coverage of chris christie today. i do not think any of the other guys will -- guys or gals will breakthrough. >> do you think that there is anything scott walker or susana martinez could do to draw that attention or it too late? >> if you really invited national reporters to come out and really cast your programs as stuff that would work it other states or at the federal level but i do not think any of them have done that. part of the challenge is to compete for the big donors, the big bundlers. for someone like a scott walker, i think it is a missed opportunity. you don't get national coverage, you are an elite leader who can beat hillary clinton? it is always been the case throughout my career.

cuomo, ann richards, they get national attention, but most governors just can't. all right, coming up, we break down the gop big 3 -- christie romney, and bush. what are they thinking now? and a man from the donor class is here to answer those important questions when we come back. ♪

>> our guest tonight is a repeat guest. the first time he was here mitt romney was not running for president and paul ryan was a possible contender. now we are not sure on romney and paul ryan is out. jeb bush is probably in the. based on what chris christie said today, he could be in, too. but let's be honest. the big question is what are they all actually thinking? >> with us now, a man who knows them all quite well. he will give us a window into their thinking.

dan senor. he backed romney in 2012 and knows a few big donors. thanks for coming back. let's start with governor christie, the state of the state. what is he thinking out question >> if you are back to 2014 and asked all of them when they needed to make a decision to make moves, they all thought they had space and time. jeb bush laid low. he popped the surprise in 2014. i think it scrambled everyone's plans. >> christie is usually a pretty confident guy. what do you think about the possibility of taking on romney and bush? underdog against people who have run, and from national political families or do you think he is confident? >> i think chris christie is

confident and the dynamic of more mainstream players is helpful for christie. it has the effect of freezing out a lot of donors. there was early enthusiasm for jeb bush. i think romney kind of freezes things to the extent that jeb's early interest spent things up. i think romney slows things down to some degree. it is not a dynamic -- bad dynamic for chris christie. >> let's go to romney. give us a thought bubble. be mitt. what is he thinking? be romney. channel romney. >> this is me though. >> what do you think he is thinking? >> i think romney and the people urging romney to run, or could be a real crackup up in the primary. that crackup would happen late. there would be no obvious front runner.

it would be fractured and ugly and the party, the donor community and the party elite, the conservative elite would need a unifying force, a tested, that it, unifying force to come in late -- what happened last week, jeb bush was in town. he met with a lot of donors and was energized. >> in boston as well. >> christie was also in boston. he met with a bunch of donors. i was struck by the positive impression he made on all of these donors. these donors who felt in the past that jeb was ambivalent wishy-washy, some said he was naive to take the run, wanting to run a "joyful campaign." jeb was strong, assertive, ready to go. of course romney has a strong message for his donor community. many of them were meeting with jeb. >> but what happens in his head? >> he needs to fire a flare. >> he does not want jeb bush to be the nominee? >> it turns out if i want to be

president, i have to shoot a flare sooner before all of these party leaders get behind another guy who can play that unifying force. not to say i do not want jeb to be president. if i want a shot, i got to make a move. >> he made this decision of the course of a week or a week and a half? >> i don't know. my impression was the timeline was longer-term. i did not get the impression from him that he was planning an early move. i think it was just, again, it is easy to overstate the spikes and momentum. but there was a lot of buzz among donors from jeb's visit to new york and boston last week. >> let me ask you about jeb. when he does this stuff, you got to say the reviews of what he did, the surprise, the positive impression on the donors all going well. than romney does this and work

comes out that romney thinks jeb does not know how to run as a businessman, does not know how to do with immigration. knowing jeb as you do, how do you think he is reacting from the elbows from romney world? >> i think his attitude is he is just going to march forward. the reality is, if this becomes jeb bush versus romney, it is going to be an ugly race. it probably will get pretty personal pretty quickly. over the course of the next 12 to 15 months. there is so much ideology that divides them. a more respectful race ironically, would be ted cruz versus romney or jeb bush. because there is something ideologically. romney and jeb could get nasty pretty quickly. these things, as you know, take on a life of their own. >> let's talk about ryan, who you're also very close to.

paul ryan has said he is not running. we interviewed him during his book tour. where is his head at in terms of this decision? >> he, first of all, made the decision that he would either be a constructive force in congress and make divided government work, or he would one for president, but he could not do both. he could not work on things like immigration reform in a budget agreement with patty murray and -- he cannot do these things and run for president. so, as soon as he and mitt lost, he got deep into trying to make washington work. he wants to do conference of tax reform. you cannot do those things and run for president. he made the decision before mitt made his announcement and before he and mitt spoke about it. he is not john edwards. he would not say i am running no matter what.

on one hand, it is true he made his decision before mitt made is announcement. it is also true that paul would not run against mitt romney. >> there is no chance anybody wearing a beard would ever he is holding out for the packers. seahawks crushed the packers this weekend. >> all right, thank you very much for coming in. after the break, with the wave of political news coming out of the golden state, we will go straight to our california crystal ball. basically it is a regular crystal ball, but it has long hair and it is saying words like -- we'll be right back. ♪

>> yesterday, john and i did some more california dreaming

when we spoke with bill carrick and fred davis. topics -- no holds barred. one in every seven republicans in california. now you are kind of in a pretty low point. what are the building blocks for the california republican party to be competitive? >> oh, gosh. first, one in seven, that is like one in seven people who live in california are republican. they have a long ways to go. however, the party made some decent inroads last november. not anything to write home about, but a slight move in the right direction. i think finding someone extraordinaire, kind of like finding the barack obama that the country or the credit party found a couple years ago. somebody with money, and incredible candidate. a case would be arnold schwarzenegger.

he was someone who came in and sucks the wind and was republican. >> but he did not stay with the party at all. >> he hired a democratic chief of staff. someone that lives it and breathes it, but is so charming and dynamic did other than that it is a two-year slaw. >> i remember ronald reagan came from the state. all a lot of great republican talent came from this state. is it that the demographics of change so much it is inhospitable to republicans, at least the current incarnation of the republican party? >> i moved here after the 1988 campaign, republicans were getting roughly 40% of the latino vote. we went through the 90's with a lot of discussion of the immigration issue, and then proposition 187, which helped

reelect pete wilson, because it influenced the turnout with angry white voters and destroy the republican party's future in california. as a consequence, they have not come back. the demographics get worse. >> if jeb bush runs a flawless campaign, talks about immigration, education reform, could he win california? could he come out here and compete? >> i think it will be tough. the truth is, if president bush -- president bush ended up being very unpopular here. he will have to do something quite extraordinary to become a viable candidate and compete in california. >> my prediction is they will not spend a dollar. >> is there any republican candidate among the potential republicans who might run, is there any republican who could be remotely competitive? >> i do not think so. i do not think any of the presidentials we know anything

about. they won't come here. they won't play. >> it used to be that political trend started in california and moved east. what trend represents the wave of the future for politics and other states? >> one thing that is up into the republican party here and is probably happening on the flipside to the democratic party in the south, it is becoming less of a actual political party and more of an interest group. at our local elections are nonpartisan, and we have this top two primary system where candidates from all parties going at the same time in the primary. a lot of times the republicans are using their influence to say, i am not going to vote for this hopeless republican. i'm going to hold my nose and figure out which democrats to vote for. i think we see that in legislative activity. some republicans are figuring out, if i want to produce a page in the governing process, i have got to cut deals with democrats,

whether it is jerry brown or the democratic led legislature. >> i love it here. we were born here. there is not much politically you would want to move east if you were raised. it is not a great place to be on my side of the political spectrum. >> you are from south carolina originally, you are from oklahoma originally. are you more of a southerner or southern california this point? >> i'm still a southerner in many ways, but i can't imagine going back to south carolina and playing politics. >> how about you? oklahoma or hollywood? >> politically, here, this is home. i have been here since 1985. but listen to my voice. i am oklahoma through and through. my whole family is back there. 50/50. >> it gives us a perspective on politics other people do not have.

people grow up north, south. i think both of us are agnostic about all of the words they go through here politically. >> you are totally correct. >> thank you for talking to us yesterday and today. >> very welcome. >> we will be right back. ♪

>> tonight's show was, i believe, totally fabulous thanks to this man, phil mattingly. tomorrow will be even better. we will chat up marco rubio about one of the issues he cares about most. check out our website. you can check out our analysis of chris christie's state of the state speech. and there is also information about the president and everything else going on in politics all the time 24/7. up next on this channel, "taking

stock." phil, say it with me -- >> sayonara. ♪

>> hello, i'm pimm fox. and this is what i am taking stock of for this tuesday, january 13, 2015. stock prices were up more than 1.5%. the index finished down a quarter of a percent. homebuilder stocks were part of the climb. gopro stock also dropped after a report apple was granted a patent for a remote control camera system. investors feel that apple will create a similar product to go pro cameras. and not too big to fail.