>> a bloomberg international exclusive. russian foreign minister said oil at $45 a barrel would mean the economy shrinks. >> a series of exclusive interviews. an side russia's troubled economy. largest bank said he wants to see what will happen to the roble, you have to see what will happen with oil prices. >> the forecast for the rub and the oil price. le and the oil price [indiscernible] >> breaking this hour.

we are watching the world's largest jewelry maker. the latest trading figures. ♪ >> welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am anna edwards. >> i am manus cranny. >> the start of the program and our top story. in an exclusive russia's finance minister says the country is heading that way didn't recession if oil stays at around $45 a barrel. -- the rush is headed into a recession if oil stays at around $45 a barrel in >> the current situation and talking about $45 per barrel and

expected activity for all year long -- and expect that to be for all year long. >> is $45 a barrel what you're working on now? >> is one of the possible scenarios. a possible scenario that generally that should be a little bit higher. in case it would be the price the decline would be between 4%-5%. >> how long do you see a recession lasting? >> it is dependent on the global market. [indiscernible] a positive gdp performance. >> what does the price of oil stays low around $45 beyond this year?

>> something like $170 billion [indiscernible] now it's something around 10 billion rubles. it is 3 trillion. hopefully, more than budget spending that the oil prices is important for the budget and losing something with the oil price. but we knew in terms of budget. >> for more, let's cross to ryan chilcote, he is standing by. we will be hearing more from that interview later this morning.

give us a sense of how confident government officials are about country's future. >> you know, i think they are trying to put on a brave face. you get a sense they do not know how it is going to play out precisely because they do not know what to the price of oil will be. 50% of the russian budget depends on oil. this is an oil-based economy. and we have seen that in the roble after a disastrous year in 2014. we saw a little bit of a correction in the ruble and seeing employment again in 2015. you know, as the head of the largest banks told me, if you know what the oil prices going to be, i will to you where the ruble is going. the same could be said about the economy itself area -- itself. >> is there a sense it could be

handled differently? the ministers and action could've been taken earlier, for example. >> absolutely. interestingly enough, somebody economy minister mentioned in my interview. i said if you change one thing of how the country responded to the crisis and he said we should've acted more quickly. we are similar sentiment from the russian president at the end of last year sang the central-bank should've acted more quickly in raising rates. the economy minister told me they would not have had to raise the benchmark rate to 17% if the rates had been hiked earlier. yesterday, we study head of the monetary policy, the deputy head of the central-bank relieved of her duties. a new individual will be in charge. she will be first deputy of the central-bank. but it will not be her was at

the helm of policy that will be running the show this year. that does reflect a little bit of disappointment though it has not been overtly said by officials or the russian president here in how things were handled at least in the very first days. >> ryan chilcote live in moscow for us. stay with us for more exclusive interview from russia. we'll be sticking to the russia businessman, the owner of the evening standard. that is that seven 30 a.m. u.k. time. in less than half an hour, will speak to the ceo of one of russia's largest financial groups. -- that is at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. >> ok, reporting of numbers. one of the biggest luxury brands

it is caroline hyde has been pouring over the numbers. the headlines, it is a mix. it really begins to tie up to the story from orion in terms of what people are spending. >> and it ties in with the burglary yesterday. many -- burglary yesterday. -- many of them -- burn very -- and it ties into the burberry yesterday. originally, -- regionally, europe is doing very well. people are spending more. a better exchange rate. 9% sales growth. america not as strong as expected but surely growth. up 7%. many felt it will grow and a double-digit. jory doing well. -- jewelry doing well. asia is adorable -- is brutal

down. th ea -- the watches fell the most. and distinction between wholesale and retail. [indiscernible] somewhat also go to department stores. those relationships, single much caution from their wholesale partners. there have not been wanting to act to the lineup. concerns when it came to watches. it seems overall this is a company that is feeling quite a bit of pain. watches are down 4%. we are seeing growth in other sections. they have plenty of cash, almost 5 billion euros. to do investing. they give us no outlook.

no direction of what they see for the for karmic future. burberry is in the site with problems in hong kong. >> how does it compare to earlier this decade when it comes to profitability? >> what really shocked me when i look back at previous years the beginning of the decade. back in 2011, they have phenomenal growth. in excess of 82% growth and profitability. now set to have to percent growth this year. companies that are having to rearrange where they see growth in emerging markets. and the volatility of exchange rates. richemont is on reporting any euros. -- richemont is reporting in

eruos. [indiscernible] >> i will add a little bit of optimism. they are sort of showing some of the concerns for 2014 is going to 2015. political instability in hong kong is down and hopefully we think. in russia and thailand weak tourism and that seems to be picking up. they said we'll start to see improvement in new york potentially in china. festive outlook when it comes to foreign exchange -- they see outlook what comes to fo reign exchange. >> thank you. some the other stories written -- some the other stories we are following.

[indiscernible] the first reduction since may 2013. >> a blackberry and samsung denied that are in talks. blackberry ishares surged. blackberry cell back after samsung said it was groundless. quite safe you're wondering what americans have been vying with all of the cash that ms. satan at the gas pumps -- >> if you are wondering what americans have been saving with all of the cash they have saved at the gas pump, restaurants. they have been climbing as the u.s. total share. >> more exclusive interviews from ryan chilcote in russia.

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>> time for today's company news. it is waiting for -- to show how it will protect its cash holdings. the comments follow a slump in the ruble and that's fueling concern that the biggest brewer will not bid to contain losses. it is the second lowest investment grade and is not sustainable at the current ruble exchange rates. jpmorgan has been pressed for more evidence about a data breach that jeopardized millions of customers last year. that's according to bloomberg area a group of 19 u.s. states are seeking information including any vulnerabilities exploited at a full-time mine event that led to the discovery of last year's reach. it affected 76 million customers and small businesses. carlos love has, the biggest investor in "the new york times." after exercising options

that's according to a statement from the company. skl\\ -- slim bought the shares boosting his statement to 16.8% of the company's class a shares. >> to russia. they face a deep recession and prices that are fortified dollars a barrel. economy minister said if the oil slides so does the ruble. emergency failures -- emergency measures failed to contain it. you say by now that the domestic crisis should not have a major impact on core europe, why is that? >> russia has written all hopefully by at least german. last year, when russian lashed out and invaded or annexed

crimea, that had a big impact on german business confidence not so much because of the exports but because russia was only the left of the biggest export market. more because many german companies are investing their and inspecting good return and with the sanctions and everything coming forward, they were afraid it would not happen. by now, many businesses do not expect to do really good business in russia anymore. what happens inside is written off. anything that what happened outside russia, if it lashes out into deeper in ukraine, that would have a big impact. that is the risk to watch. >> we had that interview with the economy minister talking about a detraction. and really sort of saying he has to keep an eye on the price of oil. ruble has been tanking.

i'm seen reports of 75-80 is the real value. what is your take? is there more mileage in terms of the currency and supporting that currency? >> the key question is, where does oil go? we ask that in the short term oil might follow. over the rest of the year, we expect it will stay low. maybe even quite a bit if the global economy picks up speed. maybe investment in the west will boost demand and the oil price and recover and stabilize the schulz -- ruble. >> when you say recovery recovery to where? >> really a moving target. when we last publish our forecast last week, will forecast in average oil price of $70. that sounds right now pretty

optimistic. however, if what we are seeing at the moment turns out to be an exaggeration of the underlying it could be quite large and this may not be optimistic. for the time being it is a moving target. >> your take is a loyal -- lower oil prices some people are suggesting that in the short term we will see a reduction in investment levels out of the precaution. that could be at risk. in the short term it seems to be doing around equities and could have an impact. are we in danger of the railing? -- derailing? >> is true it is almost at the transition risk. we are now with a lower oil prices and inevitably going to be adjustments to the risk. these risks are limited to small the high-profile groups. those who produce oils and those

who relate to the producers to the banks. they make the headlines and that is what is driving market sentiment. the benefits too many, many people around the world, almost small companies, they do not make the headlines, but they will. sentiment will turn over this year and get more and more positive. ultimately, spend less at the petrol station as spend more and other things. >> the fear is low inflation from lower oil prices will become entrenched. what is to tell us that low inflation will not become entrenched in the economy? >> in economies like the u.s. a u.k. where unemployment is falling, no real risk that inflation will drop dramatically because of the oil price and inflation expectations. there will be a one-year hit the next year.

in the eurozone, i normally would not say the same but with expectations already so low and talk about deflation, the risk is bigger. that's why the ecb has to react firmly to this. even for the euro, this is clearly a positive. >> we want to talk more about what the ecb should do when they meet on the 22nd. christian schulz stays with us. ♪

>> still with us is christian schulz. will we ever have to mention the three letters -- ever again? >> in 4-6 months, we will have the final verdict. if it follows what the general said yesterday in the opinion i think it is relatively unlikely that it will ever be used. whether the greek elections are passed on the 25th and it is all about containing risk potentially, it might be waive at the marketsd once again depending on what happens on other issues and the ecb versus qe. >> what kind of greenlighted do we have for qe? what are the conditions that could be applied that we learned yesterday? >> qe was not in court.

it is about buying sovereign bonds as well. the german court wanted to set the decision on to the european court and said we should be under three conditions. the bond purchases would be legal. and one of them is an anti-limit of how much could be bought. that could be qe as well. another room was the seniority. the ecb would not participate in debt restructuring. they could be applied to qe. the application will rejected both of these which mean that would not apply to qe either. it leaves the ecb more room and more flexibility in design is program. for instance, when the discussion comes around about what to buy investment-grade and not to buy, there is much more room now for the ecb to design the program than there was

before. >> a broader argument, mark carney touchingly yesterday the uk's in a different position every is trying to -- the bond markets and the u.s. no hike this year. what is your view? can anybody move? india cut rates. can anybody raise rates in 20 -- in 2015? >> and yes. we think the u.s. in particular will raise rates and unemployment is falling. still wage inflation is the missing link. when unemployment as low as it is now and participation rate showing no signs of rising and no sign of millions of people who have not been in the job market completely locked up returning them pushing down wages, we didn't wage inflation will kick off. >> christian schulz. >> after the break, an exclusive interview on "countdown," we

will be lliv -- live in moscow with the head of russia's second-largest bank. ♪

>> you are watching "countdown ." you have sterling at a six year high and the euro at a six year low against this currency. a clear message of convergence is what was presented by mark carney yesterday. we are in an environment where we expect rates to rise. europe is it a different spot in case you had not noticed reinstalling those for the sixth day or the euro declined for the

sixth day. i love what neil jones said about the sterling trade. it is the peers perform of convergence and with that in mind he had a new target area and we are trading at .7726. if your in any doubt -- you are in any doubt about what is coming up in the u k, there is a spike in the readership. volatility in sterling isn't a five-year high? this is six-month volatility. the fx market is in sterling. the euro starting in focus. we had a conversation with [indiscernible] let's have a look at th indian

central bank hade an unscheduledrupee dollar. the review of the economy. they rate -- cut their rates. they are concerned with inflation. neither saying disinflation processes [indiscernible] the rupee strengthened. the dollar has declined byhas .6 of 1%. >> let's return to the top story. we have been speaking to ryan chilcote. talking about the extent of the recession that russia will experience if we see oil prices staying around where they are. ryan joins us from moscow. >> lots of uncertainty in the russian capital. russian officials across the board saying they do not know what will happen with the russian economy. the ruble and many other things because they do not know what will happen with the price of

oil. yesterday i sat down with the country's economy minister and asked if things start -- stay the way they are what does that mean in terms of gdp? have a listen. >> the current situation something like $45 per barrel. expect that to be all the year-long. the real depreciation should somewhere -- be somewhere between 4% and 5%. >> this is one of the possible scenarios. that is the worst possible scenario. the belief that generally it will be higher than now. in case it will be at 45, the decline will be between 4% and

5% of gdp. >> how much -- long do you see the recession lasting? >> it depends on global markets but we think [indiscernible] it will have a positive gdp. >> what if it the price of oil stays low, around $45 beyond this year? >> so we have something like $170 billion. it is around 10 trillion rubles. the fiscal gap if the prices will be around 45 is 3 trillion. that -- the ruble price is for budget and we are missing

something with oil prices but [indiscernible] in terms of budget. >> there are limits to what a flexible policy can get you. as the ruble devalues inflation is running in the double digits in this country. part of the reason is so many goods in russia are imported. the suppliers, importers have to pay more for those same goods. that is an issue because 2015, 1 of the things we heard from the economy minister as well is the first year that russians will see their disposable incomes decline in more than a decade has incomes are not going to rise in sync with inflation. >> how confident is the leadership in russia that they can deal with the risks that they face. there is the great unknown and

that keeps coming up in these conversations and that is the oil price. >> i think they're reasonably confident but i do think that there is concern about how they handled the crisis this far. one of the things that the economy minister told me yesterday when i asked him what he would change if there is one thing he could change about how they dealt with this my he said we should have responded more quickly. specifically he singled out the central bank for failing to raise rates were quickly. they raced the benchmark to 17%. the last hike with a full 650 basis points, he said if they had done it sooner and this is when we saw the ruble spike and saw a run on the banks here on december 16, he said we could have gotten by with raising the benchmark rates to as little as 13% or 14%. interestingly, we saw the deputy in charge of monetary policy at the central bank replaced.

there will be a new individual at the central bank who will be in charge of monetary policy. she is not going to be in charge of determining things like rates and looking after inflation and the ruble. that will be done by someone else and that is in part recognition of the criticism we heard from the economy minister who is public in criticizing the central bank but also the red -- russian president saying while he fully supports what the central bank is doing he does think they could have moved more quickly. back to you. >> thank you very much. plenty more from him as we go through the morning. >> blackberries stock has surged in then fallen back on talk of a deal with samsung. what a day. >> a story that is not a story. we have been looking at this.

reuters put out the story saying that samsung was eyeing of library. suddenly we see this in a resurgent blackberries stock. we said up 30% -- saw it up 30% on the offer and we had straight denials coming from samsung and black area. -- blackberry. the fact that there were any talks about the two, that there were any talks. they said they are not discussed -- engaged in discussions. they did not specify whether they received a proposal but sometimes there is ground behind a rumor. what was on the table, what was being reported was that samsung approached blackberry saying we will offer you about $7.5 billion for your company. that is a 37% demand aware had

been treated -- trading. no wonder the stock jumped up on this hope that it could be a target. we spoke to people familiar with that very. people on the inside saying it is not untoward. it happens regularly that people come up and give judges and winks to us and they do approach us on a regular basis. what gives more credence to this is two months ago samsung and blackberry team together. they worked together on going a mobile device management area. they announced a management services partnership that tackles one recently announced by ibm and apple. it is about using samsung's system which is a secure work system. you can run them on blackberry servers. blackberry has had any -- hardly any of the market anymore.

it is loved by politicians. >> it is trying to find a strategy. >> he was talking about selling off the instant messenger application. it was $150 at one point. better than it was right now. >> blackberry has 444,000. they get -- pick up between 500,000 patrons every year so there must be an intrinsic value. we have seen deals like this done before in the past couple of years where the patents are

the real value behind the company. >> but also the fact that the company is able to -- the fact that it is so loved in terms of security by politicians and loved in terms of the way you type by business people. john thain has managed to make this company -- >> were you going to say sexy again? >> hardly. that is one of the key milestones. get this generating cash. now the aim is about getting a sustainable profit. about revenue growth. the fact it is not burning through cash makes it that more -- much more appetizing. blackberry made a big boo-boo on twitter. their official account they managed to tweet about the joys of blackberry using an iphone. it is a sad tale.

>> with that in mind let's have a go at twitter. i have been trying furiously. i am @manuscranny and mark is at@markbartontv. >> we will break down the numbers after the break.

>> a surprise rate cut by india's central bank. good morning. >> what a morning and has been for us here in mumbai. we got a surprise from the central bank of 25 basis cuts. the first of its kind. we have -- since may 2013. two weeks ahead of the policy meeting. what prompted the surprise on the r.b.i.? inflation has been firmly under control. this is all below the target of 6% and that has -- we have the government's commitment that they are firmly believing the fact that they will do that fiscal deficit target. so now all eyes will remain on

the union budget. industrial gas industry has been calling for the rate cut and they have delivered on those lines. great news, equity markets rallying. the index hit a lifetime high. bankers -- will bankers pass this rate on to industry? >> speaking live from mumbai. >> we're looking at 2015 with the help of analysts from bloomberg intelligence. we are talking about media and telecoms. the consolidation was driven by the bundling of wireless products. thank you for joining us. what is the outlook for the

companies you cover what is going to drive growth? >> for the last 34 years these companies suffered from various factors, let it be regulation and fierce competition. what we see is little signs of a recovery in the way. in 2015, the market expects this to materialize. by spending more on 4g, people will be helping the company's growth. we will say less impact of roaming cuts as well as termination rate cuts. the economy recovery is still underway. we expect that to help telecom companies. >> if you think about the big names in players that are of the news flow of a 14, it was john malone or vodafone, or sky

where will they go? where is the consolidation going to come, will be content or carriers or will they be handsets what is your feeling? >> mobile consolidation is still an important part of the story. we saw consolidation taking place in norway, the tents -- and denmark must recently. we still have fears competition when we go to southern countries like france and spain. these countries have players and markets. we can expect consolidation to take place. and we can expect between [indiscernible] pay-tv owners more mergers between them. >> this is the year that we will

get one bill rather than for bills. bundles means quad play here in the u k. the bundle has not taken on yet. >> it is the case. in the u k, penetration of those bundle products is really low. about five percent. we have some countries like in spain, it is closer to 20%. the u.k. is lagging behind. what we will see we will see the move to competition. that will be a place that will not like to brag behind and that may result in further m&a. >> that takes us to the m&a story. all these companies fill the gaps in their quad plate offering. -- play offering.

>> vodafone has been quite active buying cable companies. whenever they see the need they will be acting on it. i think in 2015, we can expect similar stories for companies to seek access in cable and pay-tv. it is difficult to pinpoint a certain name. >> i am looking at this, i signed up for netflix and a variety of packages. one of which is netflix. where is that whole story of the u.s. invaders in terms of buying content and positioning themselves in europe? >> they are quite aggressive when it comes to the european market. what's more is within seven

years they expect one third of the households in subscription. that means an impact for operators. it can be a supplement. that does not mean that traditional pay-tv companies will be affected. they will be effected through reduced revenue and more spending on programming content. commissioning original content. market expectation is that that impact will be a single digit in decline. >> thank you. that covers european telecoms. >> another bloomberg exclusive interview. jean-claude touche -- trichet said q/e needed to be

implemented but it may not be enough to boost inflation. >> next iterations of purchases of securities is clearly what is needed at the present moment. whether or not it will suffice to get inflation at a level that would be satisfactory is another story. because there is an absolute need of corporation of governments parliaments executive branches all over europe and social partners. they have a role to play. >> coming up on the program, we will be looking at our favorite stories including this. what the oil plunge means for warren buffett. ♪

>> time for a look at our top picks from today's digital world. we will start with warren buffett. how are plunging oil prices protecting -- affecting his portfolio assets? but those shares at record highs. jet fuel and diesel prices have been followed -- falling. people will drive, that will increase the frequency of accidents and boost costs for

car insurance. let's look at the other side. a big player in exxon mobil paying three dollars -- $3.7 billion. we knew what the link is there. and varco continued their slide. a mixed impact on warren buffett. >> they are not going to offer their car in detroit.five years away. it will be guess it will be five years away. if you live on the eastern seaboard in america, there is a bit of snow there.

>> it is 656. we will take a break. stay tuned.

>> russia's economy minister tells us oil at $45 a barrel would mean that the russian economy shrinks by 4% or 5% this year. >> "countdown" has taken you inside the country's economy. to know what happens to the ruble you have to know what will happen to oil prices. >> if you can answer what will happen to oil prices i can forecast about the ruble. >> reporting its weakest

christmas quarter for six years. welcome to "countdown." >> it is seven in london. in an international broadcast exclusive the economy minister says the country is headed into a deep recession if oil stays at $45 a barrel. >> if you take into consideration the current situation, something like $45 a barrel and expect that to be for all the year-long, in that case the appreciation of gdp is

between 4% and 5%. >> is $45 a barrel what you're working on? >> it is one of the possible scenarios. because we believe that generally [indiscernible] in case it is 45, the decline will be between 4% and 5% gdp. >> how long do you see that -- recession lasting? >> we think [indiscernible] >> what if the price of oil stays low, around $45 beyond this year? >> will have something like $170 billion -- and it is around 10

trillion rubles. the fiscal gap if the price is around 35 is trade -- 3 trillion. the ruble -- [indiscernible] we're losing something with oil prices in terms of budget. >> let's get to moscow now. ryan chilcote is standing by. we will hear more of your interview as we go through the morning but give us a sense of how confident the government is about the country's future. >> they seem reasonably confident. the question is is that a false sense of confidence because they themselves quite clearly believe that they do not know what is going to happen next with the

economy, with the ruble because it depends as you heard there on what the price of oil is going to be. as you can see, pretty much everybody thinks that there guess is as good as anyone else's. we have seen the volatility of the ruble continue. last year was a disastrous year for the ruble. one of the world's worst performing currencies. it strengthened just a tad and clawed backs of its losses but it has been down again since the start of 2015 with the notable exception of a correction because we saw a in the oil price. they are reasonably confident that they are more than a little concerned that the biggest factor determining what happens here next is something that is out of their control. >> many people trying to work out where the oil price goes not least of which is the russian government. is there a sense that things could have been handled differently, if action could have been taken by the central bank, then a less negative how

could -- outcome could transpire? >> that is something the economy minister told me yesterday. if the central bank had raised rates in his country, they raised them by 615 -- 650 basis points they could have stopped the crisis earlier. the ruble went to 80 to the dollar and traumatic depreciation over the course of just a few days. he said if they had acted earlier, they would not have had to raise the rates so high. they could have raised it to just 13% or 14% which is an extra ordinary comment in itself. we heard the russian president criticized the central bank albeit softly saying that while he is fourth with they are doing he would have liked to have seen them react a bit quicker. yesterday we saw the first step of the russian central bank announced -- the head will

remain on is the first deputy but she will not be in charge of rates or the ruble and inflation. she will be thinking more about strategy in the coming year and that is a reflection of some of the criticism from the russian government and the russian president as to how this crisis has been handled this far. >> thank you very much. stay with us for another bloomberg exclusive interview from russia. we will be speaking to the russian businessman, the owner of the evening standard. stay with us for that. some breaking news. this is an african focused oil business. it has a presence in london. they are talking about impairment charges and cutting back on capital expenditure. they are cutting the target to $200 million. they are setting out how they like many other businesses that operate in the oil market are having to a debt to a much lower oil price.

they are saying that they are putting in place further oil price hedging. >> there is lots of speculation. >> it is an ongoing story. >> let's -- it has been a whirlwind 20 for hours. reports that simpson was eyeing -- samsung was eyeing blackberry. >> up it went, 30%, the biggest jump for stock in a decade and then fell back. it is clinging on to highs, a percent higher after hours. all because reports that simpson was initiating talks. it was reported they approached

blackberry with an offer. valuing it up to $7.5 billion. a $.37 premium where the stock had been before these reports came out. executives met last week. samsung has said this is groundless. this is ours. they said we are not engaged with samsung. they did not specify if they received a proposal. many can still read the tea leaves. this is basically something that many are going to be eyeing as to whether it would make sense. this is an area of -- it would work for both of you think about it. samsung has not made that much of a foray, it is trying to make its foray into the electronic space. they formed a partnership months ago about harnessing blackberry's expertise when it

comes to security. they have a server that samsung's apps work upon. they are tied up in the enterprise space. they want to seal the deal because this is what is so lucrative. this is what many people would i am from blackberry. the fact that the german government wants to use the blackberry because of security and business people like the keyboard. the patents and expertise that blackberry has makes it a juicy asset to have especially on the end of that sony hack. >> revenue growth has ground to a halt for the first time in a number of years. >> let's go from phones to luxury. a brutal last quarter. asia was where it really hurt. and echoing what burberry said the day before. hong kong protests were at their

worst in october, just as golden we can't. just as the chinese from the mainland were about to flock to hong kong and make the best of the tax incentives they have. it is far cheaper to buy luxury watches and jewelry because taxes are cheaper. you had protest and a watch conference and event being disrupted. flat sales overall because asia was down 12%. this is the worst christmas pe they have hadriod since 2008. if you -- asia is where it hurt. europe is getting better. tourists are flocking to malan to -- milan to spend.

chines tourists spende when they are abroad. europe is picking up and also the euro being lower. that always helps as well. and it helps buying in japan as well. we're likely to see richmo emont under pressure. >> thank you. >> let's look at some of the other stories where -- we are seeing. and lowering india's benchmark rate. it is the first reduction since made 2013. -- may 2013. drivers in america are pa $1.51 less per gallonying of gas than they did six months ago. receipts and restaurants climbed by nearly 1% in december. restaurants and bar takings have been climbing as a total share

of u.s. retail sales. you can join the conversation on twitter. let us know what you are thinking. tell us the stories you are following today. what was trending today? medicare. brent lee. and what have you been up to? >> it was interesting to talk about transition rates. when oil prices have been heading lower and we are transitioning from the negative. coming up, we will have more exclusive interviews from ryan chilcote in russia including one with the owner of the london evening standard, which is among his business interests. ♪

>> fitch ratings says it is waiting for girls are two show how it will avoid a downgrade to junk. defendant's follow slump in the ruble. soothing concerned that the biggest power in russia will contain losses. harrisburg is the second lowest

investment-grade and is not sustainable at the current exchange rate. jpmorgan has been pressed over evidence of a data breach that jeopardized customer accounts last year. a group of 19 u.s. states is seeking information including any vulnerabilities exploited and a timeline of events that led to the discovery of last year's reach which affected 78 million households and businesses. and becoming the biggest investor in the new york times company. that is according to a statement from the company. carlos slim but the shares at $6.36 each which is about half the closing price.

>> another exclusive interview. shot clock touche said mario draghi needed to implement qe. this may not be enough to boost inflation. >> the next iterations of purchases of critical securities is clearly what is needed at the present moment. whether or not it would suffice to get inflation at a level which would be satisfactory is another story. because there is an absolute need of cooperation of governments, parliaments executive ranches all over europe and social partners. social partners have a role to play. >> let's go from company news to the market. theour guest says he favors the

japanese market for profit growth. thanks for coming in. how do you think the big moves we have seen in the oil prices affect profitability? you have been optimistic about the levels of profit being made. how risky is it around this oil story and the impact it has? >> valuations are supported and [indiscernible] that is consistent with the global pmi data that we see. there are risks to that. markets last year have been as we are worrying about this year. we are worrying about next year. growth may be stronger this year but we are worrying that oil

weakness is suggesting weakness to come. the challenge for investors is we should focus on tomorrow and how these things play out on the demand and supply side of things. >> that report spoke quantities. you look at the stoxx 600 resources index which is mining companies. the biggest fall yesterday since 2011. why yesterday, was it purely the u.s. retail sales number what happened yesterday to precipitate such a decline? >> inr -- there has been a significant increase in supply and all the commodities. that is having an effect on price. demand is probably a little bit weaker but we do not yet know how much. what we do know is markets are

less liquid than they used to be. we saw yesterday banks are providing less liquidity to some of these markets and the moves we are seeing in these commodities are sharper. investors are struggling to find ways to exposure. they can forward sell the commodity which leaves them very sharp and very aggressive news -- moves. most people that are experts on companies themselves do not believe that $40 oil is sustainable. over time, all oil -- oil prices are correlated to the isam. what is likely is the -- this is exacerbated by the lack of ability to hedge positions. demand is softer than we thought it was going to be. until we know that it is hard to

look forward with confidence. >> that is -- for every negative there is a positive. americans have spent more on food after the fall and gas prices. is it time to buy retail stocks? is that where it plays out, that is energy but we have more cash and art -- pocket. >> japan also a beneficiary of lower oil prices. consumption stocks -- there are some industrial companies that see oil as an input and low oil prices will benefit margins. to thank you. stay with us. matthew beasley, head of global equities.

stay with us on "countdown." ♪

>> home-based points or 6%. interestingly, everything was

front ended because of black friday. we all bought on discounts and then nothing was left to do after that. probably many of the retailers faced this over christmas. >> there were some decent numbers. we knew that -- they had been very strong. if the cycle matures as it seems to be in the u.k. they have a decent portion of business is selling at higher margins. later cycle products furniture. it needs high-margin business is to come through and regulate some profit leverage. they have been investing quite aggressively restructuring homebase which appears to have been paying some dividends. the stock could be potentially an interesting play on u.k. consumer recovery especially few believe lower oil prices feed

into food consumption. >> jeffrey morgan reported yesterday setting up the wall street results, fixed income trading trashed. he said we are on a completely different trajectory. >> they can be interesting as they decline in value and the decline in value because expectations for interest-rate rises have not come through. there are some banks that grow their loans. if you see some acceleration as you might expect at this point coupled with some rate rises there could be some value. but hitherto we prefer to invest in japanese banks. >> thank you. coming up, we have an exclusive interview from ryan chilcote and russia including one with alexander levevdev.

he counts the evening standard is one of his businesses. we are looking at a slightly better open. the dax indicated up 100 points. ♪

>> you are watching "countdown." it is 7:30 a.m. the euro down six days in a row. we are in a different spot than the euro zone. and this is the purest form of diversions. this is the purest form of beverages because he is starting down against the dollar. inexorably marching against the

dollar and there is another 6 percent ago. -- 6% to go. if you're thinking about a volatile trade, traders are getting frisky with sterling because volatility is at the highest level in five years. six-month all until it he is at the highest level in five years. a bit of an election coming. have a look at dollar rupee. but we saw here is the indian rupee is the number three economy in asia. this is dollar down and the rupee strengthening. the point is this. we have gone from 8% on rates in india down to 7.75%, the first reduction in rates since may 13 -- 2013. this inflationary pressures were the reasons that were treated and they are in a different position to brazil and russia.

a question you have got to ask yourself is where are we in the cycle of rate cuts, can we expect more question -- can you expect more? that is the dollar down, the rupee up .7 of 1% area >> -- 1%. >> let's get back to ryan chilcote in moscow for another exclusive interview. >> pressure is headed toward its first recession since the financial crisis. we are here in 2015 to take stock again in joining me to do that is the owner of the evening standard in london. i want to start by asking you about politics. we saw the deputy head of

russia's central bank lose her portfolio where she was in charge of monetary policy. she is still going to be deputy had but just not in charge of rates anymore. is this the first blood in a political crisis? >> she stays in the job but part of her function is [indiscernible] quite an experience as a regulator. they are strengthening the intellectual capacity. i do not think it is the blame to put on someone. >> to you see any political fallout by the way the russian government and the central bank has handled this crisis so far, that the ruble is plummeting so steeply question mark are people like the country's prime minister safe in their jobs? >> as far as the things are not getting much worse, they are but it is clear that things will get

worse before they get better. they will get better eventually. it is a serious crisis and the russian economy which is mostly due not to what the government is doing or not doing. yesterday they have been claiming they should not be doing anything at all, they should just wait. it is a strange policy to be heard from a government but the problem is mostly in the political and economic system rather than anything else. oil prices will recover sooner or later. >> tell me about the manic the top, vladimir putin. >> that is a good question. >> the ruble is getting to 100 to the dollar. >> the ruble could go to 100 to the dollar before we see a $100 oil return. >> the government might probably

do a lot of serious mistakes. i would rather say that the ruble is more or less inclined to stabilize where it is. macro economically i do not see any reason for that to happen. they made a few mistakes in regulating. they could have behaved much better. they do not seem to be in the mood of blaming anybody. >> bringing it back to vladimir putin. he thinks there might be a co-at some point. he said the russian president is starting to make mistakes. do you see any prospect for this crisis, any possibility that this economic crisis will lead to a political crisis that could lead to the ousting of vladimir putin? >> there's always a chance of accidents or unexpected things to happen in history but i do not believe there is going to be the case. and i was saying he thinks

changes might come but not earlier than 10 years time, something like that. >> which is an easy forecast to make when you're talking about a guy who is 62. >> a lot of people in this country who are intelligent enough to understand would probably remember that any revolution would never lead to anything good for the countries where revolutions happen. i would not advise those things to happen anyway. >> what do the opposition leaders in this country do? >> the last revolution taking place -- taking place [indiscernible] my advice of anybody listens is that it is never late to change

the institutions, to create them. the real election the parliament, the free media and independent judicial system. this is the key finding. not the reserves or even the budget. it is not important. if you have read the book "why nations fail," it is all there. >> where does this crisis leave russian businesses in 2015? >> bracing themselves for much tougher budgetary constraints for example. this country is still lacking opposition -- composition. if someone wants to open the country this is the time. >> a good time to get into russia. >> i am -- have forgotten about

political comments so i would be focusing on business. >> an interesting contrary in view. what about the banks, do you think that they are going to be ok in 2015? >> i do agree. he was the only one to point out that she was honest enough. he said if the oil price stays at low levels for much longer than someone would expect, the banking sector is facing a crisis. 3 trillion rubles which the government is allocating to help them. they have given some banks, most of the big ones would receive budgetary support. i do not think it will help. this is something that is not double click admitted because they have to prepare for them -- themselves for that. with the bank of ratio of capital of 50% which is the best in the country, i can give a competent opinion. it is a serious problem.

>> we saw something of a run on the banks on december 16 of last year. that is when he kicked off russians pulling their money and of banks and putting it in appliances and goods and consumers that they can get their hands on. do you think that kind of crisis where depositors do not have confidence in the banks is an issue that will linger in 2015? >> the problem of the penny will be overcome but the problem of the huge foreign debt and foreign currency where you have all your revenues and rubles is number one. the level of difficulty on the consumer loans this is not a problem. the problem with russian banking sectors is the proprietors of the bank feel free to steal money from banks. this is something you have to keep an eye on. if you have been watching the river -- russian government agency this is the typical case where the proprietors feel free to pocket the money from

clients' money. the regulator knows it. it is the regulator's fault really. >> we spoke here after the sanctions had been imposed. have the sanctions been successful in their aim of trying to dissuade the russian president to change policy in ukraine? >> they're adding actually to the overall problems and the oil prices are a serious factor. having lost more than 100%. >> that has nothing to do with angst. >> -- nothing to do with it. >> that would be a different story. politically speaking let's assume nobody would admit that it works. i have a more positive feeling.

someone said we had to sit -- separate the sanctions. >> we're hearing some voices calling for a rollback in sanctions. you're not hearing that from angela merkel. we have an intensification of the fighting in the east and the russian president was hoping for peace talks with merkel and holland and the ukrainian president and merkel said no cigar. because russia is not doing its part. >> they are being attacked and they are blaming it on each other who has done it. overall speaking in the recent month and a half i would say i see more positive rather than negative things happening in eastern ukraine. besides -- they said russian -- the former prime ministers of russia said this should be part

of ukraine. you hear more voices that are positive and were competent on what should be done. i was always advising that you should treat crimea differently. once the war in eastern ukraine is stopped, whoever is to blame it is more or less clear who is right and wrong. the crimean thing, they should find a different solution. somebody suggesting they do some sort of a hong kong and leave it for 100 years. i was interested to discuss and united nations the possibility of whether you can see russian behaviors are preemptive of an intervention. like french military forces [indiscernible] >> that is fanciful thinking. you invested a lot of money when it was part of ukraine. >> i was the biggest russian investor in crime area.

>> you had a hotel there. i stayed at it. what is the situation in crimea right now, russia's new trophy asset. >> something between what you read in the daily mail which is complete nonsense, that is complete collapse and people are being killed and people are dying. that is bunk. i think -- the story in the daily mail was, they have been troubled. things are in between because they have just started doing their bit sanctions are hitting every angle that has been done in crimea. you could not do anything, not give alone or reregister. >> mastercard is not working there. >> there are white a few problems and i would rather see crimea developing without the sanctions. if you look at the legal opinions of the best legal consultants in europe you could do anything there. so should we kick at 150 p it --

people? it is quite a problem. >> thank you very much. we will have to leave it there. as always, the owner of the evening standard, and one of the opposition newspapers providing his outspoken view on the situation in russia. back to you. >> great interview. speaking to alexander lebedev. this is where you will find the three of us. >> it is bart chart time. looking at the commodities selloff in 2015. stay with us. ♪

>> or want to take you inside the 2015 commodities selloff. this picks up where last year finished off. this is a chart on top, a one-year chart, a gauge of 22 commodities. it closed at its lowest level since november 2002. it is registering a drop of

1.6%. only six of the 22 commodities are registering gains for the index as a whole. twice 6% since reaching a one-year high. that is the white circle. the worst-performing commodities are energy-related. crude, heating oil, crude oil and gasoline are taking a look outside the energy space. it is the base metals that are being hit the hardest led by copper. take a look at the london metals index. this is a gauge comprising copper, aluminum led, 10, zinc, and nickel. all six have dropped in 2015. sending the index down 8% to a 2009 low. copper through wednesday down by 12%. worst start of the year since 1988. china accounts for 45% of global

copper demand. it is poised for its lowest expansion since 1990. the world back a couple days ago that its outlook for global growth, compounding the selloff. the index is almost why percent below that orange circle. that was the peak last year on july 24. that was a 16 month high. look at the bottom chart. how are these declines feeding into the companies that produce the commodities? the bottom chart is the stoxx 600. it is the european mining -- mining index. and wednesday at sign by 5%, the biggest one-day drop in four years. the index which comprises 18 mining companies has dropped by 8%. that is year to date down by 8%. shares of all 18 mining companies are lower. falling more than 8%.

that was the july 29 peak last year. since then it slumped by 24%. alan greenspan once considered copper a useful indicator. i want to finish with the words of one economist. he said i was -- have always maintained that copper has a masters degree in economy not quite a phd. when you look at copper and tin and zinc and aluminum an aggregate, they have a collective phd in economics. all of them are week. very interesting chart. >> what do they teach us about the trend toward disinflation? we will talk about that with fitch ratings next. james mccormick is next with us on "countdown." ♪

>> james mccormick is with us. talking about the drop in commodities prices. will they stay low for long? >> we are talking about $70. next week we will be talking about something lower. the price comes back up. where does it bottom out, nobody really knows. that is the difficulty getting an average price. how did countries look with lower prices? >> does this move toward

disinflation in, we have seen india moving on interest-rate it seems to be spreading, on the radar for many central banks. visit undermine the area of a diversion world in 2015 because even the economies that are doing well will be hit by this disinflation or he. >> that is one thing that is not diverting his inflation. it is converging and it has been converging for a long time. even the -- in the u.s. where we see stronger growth, inflation rates are negative and there will be another one coming out on friday which might be negative again. from that perspective the world is not diverging. there are you countries with inflation over 5%. this is the million-dollar question. in terms of price shock it has to be temporary because i do not think anyone assumes oil prices will stay where they are but in terms of that longer turn -- term trend, it is not just last year, it is a broader measure if

you look at broader measures of trans, you have seen this since 1990 so there is a longer-term phenomenon going on. >> you are on the road and you have been talking about the same things all week. >> consensus on brazil is tight. same president but new ministers. dealing with lower commodity prices. fiscal prices -- policy has to be tightened. there is not a lot of confidence we will see that from this new government so there is a possibility of surprise on the upside in terms of brazil. >> thank you for being with us this morning. james mccormick head of sovereign ratings at fitch. >> copper was crushed during trade yesterday. the bar chart was not enough.

"on the move" is on the way. see you tomorrow. ♪

quark's welcome home. we are here in the city of london. moments away from trading. let's get straight to the trading. you are in prices. the economy minister tells us that the russian economy could shrink by 5% this year. rates cut and the governor cuts interest rates. the unscheduled move to stimulate the largest economy. copper rebounds after the worst start of the year since 1988 and

the biggest drop. metals bounceback and credit growth surges. i am looking at futures markets higher by 95 points and we go higher on the open with manus cranny at the touchscreen. >> we will get a bounce after a session yesterday. the debate is whether to air on the side of a pace that you are concerned about growth in the u.s.. do you believe that we will test intermediates and what will that do to the oil market? do you believe china? there are big themes play with the markets. the oil will be around $55.