>> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton. this is "bottom line." to our viewers in the united states and those of you joining us from around the world welcome. we have full coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines on this thursday. shelby holiday in st. louis missouri home of the gateway arch, to talk about an architectural arms race with skyhigh ambitions. peter cook in hershey

pennsylvania where congressional republicans are holding their first joint retreat 11 years. we begin with scarlet fu and lisa abramowicz with an international shocker. switzerland's central bank -- there was an e-mail to bloomberg news the ceo of the swiss exporter wrote "words fail me." what did things look like after the dust settled? >> the dust settled in switzerland and it is not pretty because the exporters alterable on expectations that the swiss bank surgeon value makes it's a much more expensive. we saw the stocks tumble and the swiss market index down 25%. the most in 25 years, 8.8%.

u.s. stock index futures up 1% then down 1%. settling lower because of bank of america. a little bit call for now. -- calmer now. >> just based on two-year treasuries what is today's move by switzerland mean in terms of the fence thinking -- fed's thinking? >> they're having the rhetoric that they are looking at u.s. economic growth, they won't be finger to the wind, fairweather bankers. they want to stay on the course they set out. if they can hike this year, they would really like to because this was national bank wants to get to -- thise swiss national

bank it's getting old for them too. it's hard to see how they can justify a hike in the near future given wages that are not appreciating here and look at the global yields the 1.7% yield you are now getting on the 10 year. looks attractive. looks amazing. >> we are looking at switzerland, four basis points. germany, 37 basis points. >> you talked about discipline. when does discipline meet reality? when do central banks pivot not when the winds change, but when factors change. >> that is why everyone is so convinced that the federal reserve is still on schedule for

a rate hike because the data on the job market is an clearly encouraging. >> what happens when the yield curve inverts. above where longer-term interest rates are -- people are wondering, are we heading back towards that? >> conditions are different because we have unprecedented -- conditions that no one is prepared for. >> were the conditions right for those central banks to start using this currency manipulation as a monetary policy tool? >> oppenheimer funds pointed out that central banks have done everything they can with regards to buying bonds and giving their

conventional tools. everything they have -- all they have at this point is currency. >> this is certainly the element of surprise. yes, this might be a technical affect. the fact that people are excepting 2.4% to lend money to the u.s. for 30 years, letting trillions of dollars are paying for the privilege to lend to european nations says something about the appetite for how much growth there could be in the decades to come. >> we can't underestimate how big of a move this was in currency markets. thank you to tom keene for helping us with this. a chart over the past week -- there we go. the line on the left shows how this was government controlled the prices. the blue band shows the number of standard deviations.

this move was almost a 10 standard deviation move. a lot of professionals look at a 2-3 standard deviation move. when treasury yields tumbled that was a poor standard deviation move. -- dr. of standard deviation move. -- four standard deviation move. >> you saw the risk your nations that have a lot of loans out in swiss francs. it will get more expensive for them to repay that debt that is a ripple effect. people are sitting on their hands waiting to see how this will shake out. people are wondering how much -- how many hedge funds or leverage buyers might have to potentially react. >> there is good volatility and

bad volatility. is this good or bad volatility? >> bad. the banks will argue that this is bad volatility and this is very hard to prepare for. it does not force people out into the market to trade. it causes people to have to either make big bets or sit quietly for. >> they will just wait until the dust settles. the volatility we saw in the fourth quarter was not good volatility, which is why you are seeing that show up in result of the big banks. >> certainly a seismic move in the currency markets today by switzerland. thank you so much. you will have more on this was national bank story coming up on "street smart." jason schenker predicted the drop to as low as 1.83 euro this year. the only estimate among 69

analysts. coming up, the first joint republican retreat since 2004. what is on the agenda and we talk about the republican legislative strategy. stay with us. "bottom line" continues just a moment. ♪

>> for all of their disagreements, president obama and congressional republicans share common ground on trade policy. the problem, the president's own party. there has been rising concern among the administration's top allies about what the president's top rarities. the top priorities. phil mattingly joins me now with the details. >> when it comes to trade republicans and president obama are pretty aligned. they more or less have been agreeing since they came into power just a few weeks ago.

the problem for the white house congressional democrats. this is no small matter for this white house. the transpacific partnership is a central component of that asia rebalance, a crucial part of the foreign policy. trade promotion authority democrats are concerned that if the president is to move this forward, they will no longer get to sign up on specific details of his 12 nation negotiation. the president cannot get democrats to come with them. they're wary to move forward on that. >> how is the administration trying to counter this opposition? >> a lot of behind the scenes work. they are not going public with this. they are sending out deputies to work with democrats and work with trade unions.

top on the list is michael from it. he has been -- michael frome an. they're utilizing the labor secretary who has very close ties to the labor unions. that is extremely important if the obama administration wants to move forward on any of this. they need them to not oppose. the president himself -- just yesterday, the head of the uaw had meetings in the open up -- oval office with the president. >> david cameron arrives in washington shortly. is there a singular issue of focus for the two leaders on this visit? >> one is the economy. this goes directly to the trade deal. the european trade deal which both the u.k. and american negotiators are working c hard on.

in the wake of what occurred in paris just last week counterterrorism countering the islamic state and islamic extremism in will behind on the agenda. it will be his first opportunity to speak publicly with the press. >> phil mattingly joining us from the white house this afternoon. thank you. house and senate republicans are in hershey, pennsylvania today. they're plotting their legislative strategy and trying to bridge differences within the party over policy. peter cook is in hershey with more. our republicans making any progress? >> they say they are making some progress. we heard from some of them. the closed-door conversations -- we are on a break right now. they will update us on where things stand. the goal of this retreat was to

try to set their legislative agenda get house and senate republicans talking to each other. it does not have to result -- they had been hearing from jay leno last night, tony blair at lunch. a whole host of outside speakers trying to start up the conversation. most of the conversation between lawmakers -- i'm joined by one of them at the center of the conversation. thank you for your time. what is your sense right now about what will be accomplished here? the conversations you are having with your senate colleagues. >> this is so critical. it has been a super retreat so far. it gives us a chance to share what our priorities are. we think it can be an healthier

-- a healthier economy. we are spending time on how we advance all of that. >> there has been some talk that maybe this was an effort by senate republicans to tell their colleagues there's always some which we can get done over in the senate. we still need 60 votes. a chance to lower expectations. >> not really. it's more about what our goals are. how we can reach them. it will take some of these issues we feel so strongly about. there are others that are very bipartisan. it really is about how we best tight for the middle class and make some changes. >> trade, you've got the president talking with a whole host of folks about what progress you would like to make on that. >> we need more customers for

american workers and companies. the trade agreements coming up had a big impact on our ability to trade in green jobs here. this is a perfect bipartisan opportunity, transport congressional republicans and the president to lead together. >> the president is with you on this? >> i'm hopeful he will people engaged. this is more than doable and good for the economy. >> let's talk about tax reform. you are on ways and means. there are ideas you all share on paper that are similar but there are some details. >> it's a tough one. the need for reform is clear. how we do it, there are some differences. chairman ryan is absolutely focused on fixing the tax code.

so is warren hatch. we are going to advance this and do it in a way that makes this economy stronger. >> you will go into a session after this talking about health care. there has been a lot to talk about republicans trying to repeal the president's health care. were you can pick some select initiatives within there to try to make some changes -- what else is on your list? >> issues like that are on our list. there is much uncertainty about the supreme court. the ruling about subsidies in the state exchanges. that has the opportunity for us to rethink that law and -- >> will you be on possible the court acts? >> we are starting strategy now on how we transition from the court ruling, making sure we

provide people with options on health care and make sure it's a portable and that transition to one that works more for patients and families. >> when issue hanging over the current congress right now. this fight over the president's immigration etc. of action and the fact that you all linked it to funding for the department of home and secured it. there are concerns are public is are putting funding for this quick look agency at risk over this issue. -- republicans are putting funding for this critical agency at risk over the city. >> we are not. we think this has bigger implications. we feel strongly about restoring checks and balance. we passed it in the house and the senate will take it up. i think we are going to make some changes. >> we appreciate it.

sorry to pull you out of one of those sessions. the retreat continues in one of the sweetest places on her. -- on earth. >> complete analysis of the academy award nominations announced this morning. target is walking away from its operations in canada. julie hyman will join us after the break when we continue. ♪

>> be sure to check out the latest addition of bloomberg businessweek with cover story on the labor crisis. it hits newsstands and your tablet today. you can read it on the go with their new business week at -- with our new business week app.

target has to figure out how to improve its u.s. business. julie hyman has been looking into target's challenges. what happened to canada? >> it used to be that canadians would get excited and make periodic trips across the border and shop at target in the u.s. this was an exciting thing for them. so targets that we might as well open some stores in canada. they did not execute properly did not have a proper supply chain even though they bought stores from an existing chain. they did not really understand the market properly. a lot of the canadian retailers said it now that target is here, we will be aggressive on price. target itself could not be as a prices -- as aggressive on price. it was losing money before they open the stores. it lost $120 million.

they ended up losing more than 200 million -- $2 billion on an operating basis in canada. the ceo said we are not going to make a profit until 2021. finally, today, he said it's not worth it and we are closing all the stores. the u.s. business does seem to be improving to some degree. target said today that comparable sales were up better than 3%. that represents a bit of an acceleration here. most investors are saying we need to do more in the u.s. how is target going to do it? they will continue to investments online business. -- invest in its online business. they will invest in the signature areas in the store. they will look at apparel and home and baby and try to beat up those areas.

they are also going to try to focus more on the food business. i talked to an analyst at will research -- wolf research. he said at the target brand has a lot going for it but grocery stores drive traffic elsewhere in the stores. if you get the food part right, people are drawn to apparel. but you have to get the food right first. >> did the decision to move out of canada come as a surprise? >> not really. the timing was a surprise for some investors. they thought maybe they would have given it longer. the reaction i heard was almost uniformly positive. if you look at how the shares are reacting today, that reflects a positive reaction. surprising to some extent on the timing but not on the fact of it happening. >> julie hyman with the target update.

coming up from the 2015 oscar nominations. reaction from -- who he thinks will walk away with the statuette next month. stay with us. "bottom line" continues in just a moment. ♪

>> welcome back to the second half-hour of "bottom line." i'm mark crumpton. thank you for staying with us. it's time for the commodities report. su keenan is in the newsroom of details. >> it has been another wild day in the commodities. you had a rally from opec. gold and copper bouncing back and holding those gains. check out the roller coaster ride for new york city. it went on a seven-point -- 7.5%

swing. today, a 10% swing from about 50 12 below 47. heading for the $46 mark. -- swing from above 50 to below 47. the gains were made all the greater. there was a rally going on early in the day. opec cuts demand in that reignites the selloff. nothing fundamental has changed according to traders. this hate will take months before we see u.s. production slowdown. any rally will be sold into -- the sole exception is the natural gas. very cold weather ahead. the market is not acting like it's done going down.

>> is opec trying to send a message here? >> they are. oil price declines will have a big impact including u.s. production being a parent. -- being impaired. it's an annual growth will be lower than previously thought as prices lead to lower investment and therefore less drilling. it sounds good but last week we saw a record production from the u.s. opec analysts saying reductions will be coming from our end anytime soon. >> thank you very much. the academy of motion picture arts and sciences announced its oscar nomination is morning. -- this morning. the senior media analyst joins me now from los angeles. welcome back to "bottom line." >> great to be here. thank you. >> the best picture nominations

this year. american sniper birdman boyhood, the imitation game, selma, the theory of everything whiplash, grant would best hotel -- grand budapest hotel. >> none of them opened in wide release. they started out in limited release and many of them expanded into more and more theaters. the highest grossing film of that lot's grand budapest with $59.1 million. it is currently being featured on hbo and video-on-demand. it opened back in march of 2014. boyhood opened in july of 2014. grand budapest has so much going for it. such a fun movie. an amazing director with wes anderson. he always has such a singular

vision in his films. you can always tell a wes anderson film. >> two movies came to the party late. selma and the american sniper. they are just now making their nationwide big screen debuts. is this unusual? >> in both cases, both of those films opened in a handful of peters on christmas day. last weekend, selma expanded nationwide and tomorrow american sniper will expand into over 3000 theaters. it is expected to top the weekend. it will probably be clint eastwood's biggest debut ever. it is typical for a lot of films to go into a platform release, opening in a handful of peters to qualify -- theaters to qualify in the expanding as they get award attention. in reaction to multiple oscar

nominations. >> what omissions surprised you? >> there were a few things that stood out. selma was nominated for best picture and best original song or score. but not in directing or acting categories. that was a pretty glaring omission to me. the lego movie did not get a nomination for best animated film and that film was so well reviewed a big box opposite as well. -- box office hit as well. wild was not nominated for best picture but reese witherspoon's performance was and she was terrific in that film. in all the acting categories it's a tossup as to who could win.

michael keaton in birdman. great performances out there. >> is there a notable box office bump for those who receive these oscar nominations? >> we talk about that all the time. the box office boost or bump. it depends on a lot of factors. american sniper is going to get that because the studio is adding a lot of theaters in reaction to these nominations. other films have been released for many more weeks and some will add theaters. you create a box office doubts by adding peters four films. -- box office balance by adding theaters for films. there is no downside to getting an oscar nomination. you will see the pr machine of the studios ramping up to tout the fact that their film -- you look at birthman and grand

budapest -- birdman and grand budapest -- it will show how well it's doing on the video on-demand space and online space. for birdman, still in theaters. >> we have a little less than a minute left. who are the favorites to go on and win next month? >> i love grand budapest hotel. boyhood won the golden globe for best drama. that is a front runner there. the acting category, michael keaton or eddie redman. for best actress gone girl and reese witherspoon in wild. all of these actors and categories, amazing work in the europe 2014.

more people will want to see these films. -- amazing work in the year of 2014. a lot of box office gas left in that tank. sniper will add another $50 million to the bottom line this weekend. >> paul, always a pleasure. thank you so much. coming up, you'll see pimm fox's full interview with the imitation game director and academy award nominee. his picture was nominated for eight oscars. i will be filling in for him today. there is architectural arms race in the united states. shelby holiday in st. louis.

>> the st. louis gateway arch is serving as a model for modern-day developers were planning not just structures across the country -- more on that when "bottom line" continues. ♪

>> >> it is time for today's latin america report. brazil's economic activity in november expected lee expanded -- unexpectedly expanded. while brazil edged out a procession, the country is

excited to post growth of .2% the slowest since 2009. the united states is in committing changes tomorrow to loosen the five decade old embargo with cuba. it would include easing travel restrictions and allowing americans to bring home as much as $100 in cigars. the new rules will make it easier for people to travel to cuba. those who do get to cuba will be able to use credit cards and debit cards. that is your latin america report for this thursday. nothing says paris like the eiffel tower. huge structures include more towards him. could a new wave of skyline defining icons across the u.s. have the same effect? developers from coast to coast are betting the answer is yes. in miami, they plan to erect a

1000 foot tower that would feature three observation decks and a bungee jumping like experience. in new york, staten island is said to build the biggest errors will in the world. two examples of several new and proposed projects around the country. are they worth it? -- biggest paris wheels in the world >>. >>the gateway arch in st. louis was originally envisioned as not only a structure to rebalance the riverfront but to stimulate the economy. in marks the 50th anniversary of the arch. in one way or another, the arch is credited with supporting or-5000 jobs -- 4000-5000 jobs. i talked to tom bradley, the superintendent of the gateway arch earlier.

he said it's about the symbolism. >> it's a huge thing for st. louis. not only very innovative but on par with the statue of liberty. people recognize that as a symbol of innovation, westward expansion. a very positive symbol and st. louis has embraced it. >> does the gateway arch's success prove anything about these other projects? >> these modern-day developers who want to build structures in miami and phoenix and new york all a safety arch as a model. if this structure can support jobs and generate jobs and bring in tourism dollars, that is what they plan to do. some say they will bring 3-4,000,000 visitors to their cities because of the structures. there are a few things that make the arch difficult to replicate. it's a national park.

had brought federal support -- it had brought federal support. some of these others had trouble to get support. this gateway arch is a monument to westward expansion. something people drive here because they want to see it and go in the museum. national parks -- the structure in miami is bungee jumping. it relies on people wanting to do a fun tourist activity. these structures are being built in cities that already have ready symbolic that's pretty symbolic buildings. in york, the big ferris wheel being planned. they're already have the statue of liberty and empire state building. there is a lot of debate about these structures going up across the country. >> shelby holiday joining us from just outside the arch the gateway arch in st. louis, missouri. central banks, transparency

versus surprise moves. the u.s. federal reserve and the swiss national bank and their opposite strategies. ♪

>> the swiss central bank stunned markets today with its unexpected move to scrap its policy of capping the swiss franc against the euro. thomas jordan defended the move saying surprise was necessary. trish regan joins me now with more on the story. >> they're keeping the mystery over there. i think this really shocked everyone. no one saw this coming. everyone thought they would keep this tag. a lot of questions about what this will mean for the swiss economy. things will become so much more expensive. >>what does it mean for jobs?

there's a part of me that feels very strongly that you should not be artificially taking the currency like that. given everything the ecb is about to embark on, they knew that was not going to be able to hold because the euro, when you pump that much money into the system, will continue appreciating. >> the u.s. federal reserve now knows what happened over there. what does that mean for janet yellen? >> it is interesting to watch. it is the opposite of the federal reserve. we seem to over telegraph everything we are going to do. you do need to keep a bit of mystery. the fed tells us every single step of the way what they're going to do. there is a danger in that. the markets become over reliant on this communication. increasingly dependent on the fed continuing to be there. >> too much transparency is a

bad thing? >> in some ways, it could be. in some ways, we are all for transparency. but maybe you want to keep a little bit of mystery because it keeps the market and investors on edge. they have to value an asset for what that asset is really worth as opposed to the fed being there to support it. >> a great lineup with richard branson. >> i will be speaking with sir richard branson about his latest project helping to create the largest ever satellite network. i will be speaking to the former senator from new hampshire, judd gregg. that is coming up at 3:00. in the former football player -- some interesting hormone therapy treatment. >> we want to look at that. 3:00.

stay with us. more on the markets when we come back. ♪

>> get the latest headlines at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio and on bloomberg.com. that does it for this edition of "bottom line." thank you so much for joining us. i will see you tonight at 5:30 for "taking stock." >> it is 56 passed the harvard

bloomberg television's on the markets. the swiss franc is in the spotlight. -- it is 56 passed the hour. investors bet mario draghi will give full blown on his. u.s. stocks have settled into a fit day of decline -- fifth day of decline. more conventional catalysts. disappointing bank earnings. the xlf trading at a three-month low. joining me today for today's sector report is the chief strategist at rhino trading partners. the worst performer in the dow today in yesterday's jpmorgan. this would suggest investors did not get the numbers -- >> there was a big move toward

value stocks like these big banks. people were comfortably sitting in there, hiding there. it came in and hammered home why i'm not a big buyer of banks. when you look at the xlf, i don't know how these companies make money given the challenges they are facing her. >> that speaks to how the decline in trading is not just cyclical, structural. jpmorgan and wells fargo report earnings. in mid-december, jeffries came out and give a horrible indication in terms of 73% plunge in fixed income trading. >> there is something rough going on in trading. liquidity is not there anymore. we can blame risk aversion -- whatever the cause is, the world

has changed. we are not 2009 in terms of the risk-taking. it is hard for these guys to make money trading because they are not the goto venue for customers anymore. it was easy to find liquidity. now i hear these were stories about money managers try to move lots of stock and they can't. you can draw the line and say that's happening, these banks are not making money. >> what is a bullish case? where and how do these banks make money? >> you can say wages are getting better and the economy is getting better and that means industrial loan growth will get better. mortgage growth will get better. i'm concerned on mortgages. student loans are outstanding various other factors. they're not making it easier for people at home. banks are not jumping up and down to lend money for homes.

that turns around, banks can make more money. >> the fed does begin rate lift off later this year. >> when there is a perception that the fed is going to get more hawkish and raise rates, these stocks rally. i'm not in that camp. what i'm thinking here, christine lagarde spoke today and talked about repercussions. i say they will not raise rates -- >> "street smart" is up next. ♪ . .

>> welcome everyone to the most important hour of the session. i'm trish regan and this is "street smart." the swiss franc ending its policy -- we will discuss the motivation behind this move. and we are counting down to earnings at intel. he will speak to intel's cfo and i will jointly -- i will be joined by richard branson. and former senator judd gregg and