tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg January 22, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
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>> from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton. this is "bottom line." to our viewers in the united states and those of you joining us from around the world welcome. we have full coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines today. matt miller is an palo alto getting a firsthand look at ford's new research and innovation center. lisa abramowitz says pay up for safety or by risky debt. we begin with julie hyman as
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mario draghi commits a trillion dollar qe plan. >> the ecb president did surprise market to some extent with his announcement of the ecb's version of qualitative easing. 60 billion euros a month in various kinds of purchases, in sovereign debt and asset-backed securities and covered bonds. the surprise came from the amount. there were reports it would be 50 million -- 50 billion euros a month. he said it would last until at least the end of september 2016. depending on how effective it is. 80% of these purchases will be handled by the 19 national central banks and they will be on the hook for some of their own losses.
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investors did express a lot of confidence in his plan. one of them was the former chancellor -- current chancellor of the u.k. >> this is welcome action from the european central bank. action from a central bank is necessary but not sufficient for a european recovery. we want to see this a company by clear plans to make the continent more competitive to create jobs, to make sure our public finance is in order. we have all those ingredients in the u.k. and that's why our economic plan is delivering strong economic recovery. we want to see those ingredients in place for the european continent so the whole of europe recovers. >> all the ingredients necessary. blackrock said it trust in mario. optimistic about this move. the market reaction has been a plunge in the euro falling to
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its lowest since 2003. we are seeing a plunge in european bond yields. spanish and italian notes falling to record lows, below where we are seeing u.s. treasuries. european stocks rallying as well as what we are seeing in the united states some degree of optimism this plan will be effective. there are still questions about it and they were echoed by george osborne and mario draghi himself. he said quantitative easing alone is not going to be enough to help the european economy recover. >> the ecb has done an expansionary measure today but it's now up to the governments to implement the structural reforms. the more they do, the more effective we will be on military policy. -- monetary policy. >> the theme of many investors
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have talked about. perhaps this will help to some extent but the governments need to do their part as well. >> thank you very much. j bryson is the managing director in global economist at wells fargo. he joins us now from charlotte, north carolina. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> were global markets expecting an easy be stimulus of this size -- ecb stimulus of the size? >> the market was priced more like 50 billion a month. they came out with 60 billion. the good thing about this whole move was the fact that it is open-ended. they say will go until at least december -- september 2016. if inflation in europe is still well below 2% i would not be surprised if the ecb comes back and does another qe2 so to
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speak. >> what type of gamble is this for mario draghi? what if as we look eight months down the road the effective strategy of this has not been fully realized? then what? >> the real gamble on his part here is if it succeeds in spai n. rather than having an inflation rate of zero or 1%, 3%. if suddenly we over stimulate the european economy, there is a downside risk, a political risk. there will be a lot of skeptics who will come back and say all of this qe leads to big inflation. he could have a political problem on his hands down the line. >> germany has been outspoken. the germans say fiscal discipline is what is needed.
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can mr. draghi's stimulus plan be successful without german backing? >> he has implicit german backing right now. it's a demand shortage. we don't think this is a silver bullet. it certainly helps on the margin but this will not over stimulate the economy. some of the things chancellor osborne was talking about, some of these structural reforms all those things are good and positive but when you are talking about making copies more competitive and reducing rigidity laying people off at the end of the day. that is not staying -- stimulating at all. europe needs the demand-side stimulus. they will get that with a lower value of the euro. some of the countries could stimulate their economy through tax cuts or government spending.
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>> if in the euro zone are not lending money because they believed the economy is still too weak does that mean qe will fail to make an impact even before it has had a chance to prove itself? >> if banks don't start to lend it will be detrimental to qe. what we are seeing is signs of stabilization in terms of bank lending. it is not going down anymore. the other thing the ecb did today is reduced the rate on subsidized lending. it is very, very cheap for companies or banks in europe to borrow from the ecb. they made it cheaper today. hopefully that will spur bank lending. >> when will global markets start to see evidence of whether the ecb stimulus program is having that the side effect? --
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desired effect? >> probably another two months before we see that. a good benchmark to look at is the federal reserve. the federal reserve had a qe program off and on but mostly on for six years. the united states had relatively sluggish growth. we are finally starting to shake that off. to expect the huge turnaround in europe this year is premature. we will be looking down the line. you will see the ecb having to double down sometime next year saying we will extend this beyond 2016. >> one of the main drags is the eurozone's court -- poor performance. is an injection of over $1 trillion enough to turn things around? should the quantitative easing program be larger?
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>> i think it is good right now. a year or two from now, it will be easy to say whether it was big enough or not. like the open-ended commitment that they can come back -- if no more is needed later on i would expect to see even more at some point. >> always a pleasure to have you on the broadcast. thank you for your time today. >> thank you. >> we will look at how the ecb's program affects appetite for european debt. that story and more when "bottom line" continues in a moment. ♪
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>> more on the ecb's aggressive bond buying program. let's look at what this means for buyers of european debt. lisa bromwich joins us in studio. the ecb program, how is it expected to induce economic growth in europe? >> what policymakers are saying is, look stimulus is necessary but not enough. they are going to have to engage in some kind of political programs or something to actually get people back in jobs and get some growth. right now, to give you a sense of how unprecedented this is there is more than 1.4 trillion euros of european sovereign debt that carries negative yields. investors have to pay for the privilege to lend to a country
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like switzerland for 10 years. you are paying for that privilege. >> one of the reasons why germany was not fully behind this. the german point of view is what you are telling countries is structurally they don't have to reform anything because they know you will throw them a lifeline. >> or doesn't ramp up the pressure on policy to engage in some kind of serious thinking about what to do. i don't think anybody thinks it will be a mask for that at this point. you have the world awash with liquidity, japan, the u.s. doing their bond buying. there is so much a stimulus out there. larry summers had a great comment today. if you have a crowded room of people and one person stands up,
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they can see better. if everybody stands up, they can't see better. everybody standing up and they are uncomfortable. what happens if this does not work? then what? >> did mario draghi embolden risktakers today? >> you will start to see some kind of increase in risk-taking. the fact that there has not been more risk-taking in the corporate sector is surprising. if this low right -- low rate environment persists, why wouldn't that be the environment risktakers want? you have withdrawals from a lot of high yield bonds. it shows how cap located this is. -- complicated this is. >> the central bank does something like this volatility
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is supposed to be suppressed. it is not. >> it is the other way around. thanks to the swiss national bank -- they really induce a lot of hedge fund closures hundred of millions of dollars of losses. we don't know of the fallout from this. you have treasury yields high volatility rising to the highest level since october 15 when the world went haywire. there has been more volatility introduced by the movement of the stimulus program. which a lot of people do not understand the applications. >> tell the average investor why they should care about volatility. >> volatility affects people's risk appetite. it is harder to feel emboldened to go out there and take risk. from a company perspective
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companies are not going to be able to borrow as easily. if people are not willing to lend to them. get people to lend and have a risk appetite. >> will be cnes limited ways -- will we see any similarities between the ecb qe and what the fed did? >> they don't have the cohesion the u.s. has. >> you have 19 central banks. >> a lot of diverging opinions are you have a reliabil -- a lot of diverging opinions. you don't have a reliable unified voice. >> will this influence jenny ellen? -- janet yellen? >> if you have global growth coming down, it will be hard to
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>> welcome back. this is "bottom line" on bloomberg television. i'm mark crumpton. bill gates changed the world with microsoft and he spent the past 15 years try to change it in a different way with the bill and melinda gates foundation. it has given up more than $30 billion in grants to projects fighting disease and poverty in
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the developing world. they released their annual report. conditions for the worlds poorest people will increase as improved dramatically over the next fitting is. erik schatzker spoke to mr. gates about the letter. >> there is a lot in the pipeline, whether it's medicines or the way people a bank or get educated. we are seeing that people care about these issues and our ability to communicate and draw people in is better than ever before. our bet is this next 15 years will be fundamental for the basics. kids of surviving, people having a bank account. a period of incredible improvement. you have to get nutrition of its citizens, health of its citizens, education level of citizens financial empowerment up to a certain level. by having these tools, some of
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which are vaccines or mobile phone based delivery the lives they lead, the economy will be self-sufficient. >> what specifically has changed in the 15 years since you and melinda started the foundation to create breakthrough opportunities in the next 15 years? >> childhood death is one where there had been a lot of work done before we got involved. but not ruled out. since 1990, that has been cut in half. now, we have those vaccines some of which are still in the lab that given the full 15 years, we will be able to get those to all the world's children. scientific understanding keeps advancing. understanding hiv malaria, all these different diseases. understanding trish and, what --
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nutrition, what kind of seeds are productive, what kind of diet you have to have, teaching farmers to use a variety to maximize their output. >> what is more important? technological innovation awareness and support for what you are doing or the sheer amount of money that is being invested in the kinds of programs you support? >> all of those are pretty important. you have to multiply them together. without the science, we could not make the better scenes -- seeds or vaccines or have digital money. without the donor generosity actually getting these things out would not happen. there is no market mechanism. the vaccines would be going to the kids were at the least risk
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of getting sick and not those with a high risk of getting sick. to have governments come up with that money you need this broad awareness. encourage these governments come even though these people are far away and not often seen and these deaths are one at a time not this one a tragedy, it does grab people, this ongoing set of diarrheal deaths or pneumonia deaths that if you have an awareness of debt and see it can be cut you volunteer time or give money but you make your government takes some of its resources come even 1% would be jus very generous and give that to poor countries. >> we will have more of his exclusive interview with bill gates throw the day on bloomberg and more tonight on "charlie rose." build belichick spoke to the
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media today -- build belichick spoke to the deflated ball controversy. >> i came in monday morning and i was shocked to learn of the news reports about the football'ss. i had no knowledge whatsoever of this situation until monday morning. i have learned a lot more about this process in the last three days than i knew in the last 40 years. >> he declined to answer questions. the patriots are accused of cheating. tom brady is expected to address reporters later today. coming up, ford's new research and innovation center. the palo alto center opens today. ford's chief technology officer. we go live to matt miller when
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>> "bottom line welcome back to the second half-hour of" -- welcome back to the second half hour of "bottom line" on bloomberg television. i'm mark crumpton. ford opened a new silicon valley research center today. it's goal is to improve technology in autonomous vehicles. matt miller is standing by. he is with the chief technical
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officer. matt? >> yeah, and really the guy to talk to about this new silicon valley center, because he is in charge of developing the products in the technology. what do you think about this office, opening up closer to google, closer to apple, closer to places like nasa. a lot of people are worried -- is for going to lose its focus on building cars? >> i think it is becoming part of building cars, right? that capability. small startups. all of the functionality people are looking for in connectivity autonomous vehicles our ability to analyze big data. >> big data is so key. a lot of people are focused on the economist car, self driving vehicles, and that seems to me to be part of the bigger picture and the data is what it is all about. >> what we have right now, we
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have incredible computing capabilities. it stores 25 gigabytes and our. >> -- 25 gigabytes an hour. >> this is the fusion you are working on with stanford? >> not even the self driving one. the fusion you can buy is generating 25 gigabytes an hour. >> it is still owned by the customer so we are just stewards of that data, but it enables a lot of analysis hopefully for the customer's benefit and for us as a company, to realize any problems that the arise. that is a tremendous asset to safety. >> i know you are looking at things other than cars. i saw a few bicycles in the lab next-door with data recorders. why look at bicycles? why look at something like that? >> there are some big macro
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economic and socioeconomic trends happening. urbanization. a lot more people coming into the city, a lot will more middle-class worldwide. part of being in the middle class, buying a vehicle. infrastructure not keeping up. congestion, not keeping up that is increasingly an issue. that could mean changes in the way personal mobility is defined. it may include mass transit different user ship, ownership models, even different vehicle architectures. all of that is something we need to be looking at. >> could we see -- i know you are a motorcycle rider. could we see ford developed those vehicles going forward? >> we will be open to a lot of experiments, but they will be experiments. motorcycles, who knows? you are right.
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i love motorcycles. but i love cars, too. >> you talked about these experiments. i noticed that ford is casting a really wide net in terms of a lot of things. ownership sharing is one of the things you are doing, right sharing services. you have experiments all over the world. is this keeping you a step had -- ahead of your competitors? >> we think so. we do not have a crystal ball. we do not know where this is going and 10, 20 years, but we are exploring these issues to see what resonates. >> we were talking earlier -- the gt, the car at the auto show in detroit, the new gt. but the 2005 gt is kind of the beginning of your experiment with carbon fiber and aluminum and those kinds of materials and its bonds the new f1 50 in a way -- it spawned the new f150 in a
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way. we we see that kind of combination of technologies? >> yes, absolutely. we put some of those learnings in the f150 now. the inefficiency of the -- the efficiency of the engine. aerodynamics. the use of carbon fiber in particular and what that means in higher mass-market utilization of carbon fiber. all of those areas will serve the entire four-line. >> i have to ask you about the self driving car, because everyone is so fascinating -- fascinated about it. google has looked at it but they do not want to be a car manufacturer. alan mullally used to work for ford. do you meet with these guys, maybe volunteer for does their partner? >> i don't think we have put that together, but he leads the
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project at google. he is one of the smartest guys i know. we talk. we all talk to each other. they have tremendous capability and we are obviously working on our capability. it is something the whole indus is working on right now -- the whole industry is working on right now. >> i will be the one who breaks the story when they finally released the news. raj, thanks so much. >> thank you both. coming up, rebuilding egypt's economy. my exclusive interview. ♪
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the eyes. there does not seem to be any particular catalyst for that. and of course, the other component of today's rally does not just have to do with that -- that is earnings in the u.s.. presentation companies came out with estimates and that is helping gains. something else i wanted to point out was an individual stock. avon shares are soaring and this after report that tpg, the private equity firm, and has had talks with the company about a possible transaction. they have climbed to comment or cannot be reached for comment. avon has been struggling and today though shares are getting a pop. mark? >> julie hyman at the breaking desk, thank you. egypt ranks number two in unemployment in africa. i interviewed the company -- the country's investment minister.
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i asked him if you jets who is largest trading partner is the european union, will be affected by the ecb decision to begin a massive stimulus program. >> europe is the major trading partner of egypt and definitely there can be problems. egypt will be one of the major and a fisheries of this. >> can weakness of the european economy trickle down to egypt? has that had an effect? >> i don't think so because egypt has taken on an approval. while there is a slowdown in the total economy, egypt is growing. we anticipate 4% gdp growth coming up from 2.2% last year. i see this in the country, but
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every part of the world are looking now with their eyes on egypt to focus on egypt, to focus on opportunities in egypt the growing economy. >> sir for any company looking to invest, stability is key. we are over four years from the start of the arab spring. how would you describe egypt's current clinical and economic climate? >> i would describe egypt is now a stable place. we have moved forward from the constitution to the vote to the presidential elections and lastly the parliament elections announced on march 23 and 23rd of april. by may 1, we will have a parliament. that is the last step in our institution political building.
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this leaves egypt actually more stable and now we feel it is improving data after day. also, the number of tourists last year, we had a number of tourists $5 million, $6 million. anywhere from $10 billion to $12 billion. stability is back in egypt. and it is one point $8 billion -- $1.8 billion for 2014. i think stability is back to egypt. i think everyone now is starting to feel that egypt is more stable and more attractive to investors. >> sir, as you know one of the
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main stories on the international stage is the fight against isil. are there concerns in the middle east, and egypt in particular, that one of these states used for a time to meet will be used for defensive purposes to combat the threat that isis poses? is that complicating your plans? >> no whatever is allocated to the funds is allocated to the funds. what ever is allocated to the budget is allocated to the budget. however we rely on foreign investment, private investment to generate growth. >> sir, new investment laws set to be introduced in egypt this spring. will that mean less red tape?
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>> it will consolidate the permits the licenses, those procedures into a one-stop shop. it also will mean some incentives in some areas to develop like upper egypt. it also means [indiscernible] >> sir, egypt's population is about 90 million. this new foreign investment you see coming into the country -- what is that going to mean for the population as a whole and not just the business community? >> it will definitely make a big difference. we have seen some improvements. we are going down to 17.2%. it means the unemployment rate will go down. there will be more jobs. it means the creation of jobs. it means also it is a major way
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for many different people to live a better life. >> it is time now for today's latin america were work. bloomberg news has learned that a turbine maker in brazil is threatening to default on $2 billion worth of wind parks. they canceled supply contracts after a brazilian company filed for banker to protection late last year. that is your latin america were boards. coming up -- we will talk about how investors are reacting to the ecb stimulus move. you are watching "bottom line." ♪
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stimulus. stocks are up for a third day. european stocks are rallying. for more on the ecb's larger than expected stimulus program, "street smart" anchor trish regan joins me. the markets have this priced in, didn't they? >> i think so. you know, it was bigger than what we anticipated. i was a little surprised. i think there have been so many promises of the course of the last couple years from the ecb that they just have not delivered on, so this is the first time you're like, ok he says he is willing to do what it takes. now there seems to be evidence a are willing to go that route. but it's going to be hard. >> did they have a choice? >> no, they definitely did not have a choice. you and i talked about this at link. it should have been somewhat obvious. on one hand the idea of a european union -- i just don't
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know how something like this ever works where you do not have a unified political and monetary system. it is just too challenging. they need the alexander hamilton , that's what they really need. if you want this to work in the long term if you are germany -- if you are new york, right, are you going to pay for losses in mississippi? if you are germany you're going to pay for losses in greece or italy or anywhere else and you do not have the political desire to do that. i don't know that they are really going to get there. ultimately the euro as we know it will continue to be incredibly challenged. >> there was one problem lisa problem with and i were talking about earlier. -- lisa abramowitz and i were talking about earlier. there are 19 different central
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banks -- >> and they are all issuing their own debt? it does not make sense. frankly, it never has to me. it is certainly a wonderful experiment. it would be great if it had worked. i don't know what europe is going to look like 20 years from now. i really don't. >> you will continue the conversation with dan foster? >> yes, we will have more about the ecb, the aggressive on buying. >> all right, trish regan "street smart," thinks a much. we will have another check of the markets on the other side of the break. as trish mentions, we see some movement. the dow jones industrial average is up to 42 points at this hour. s&p 500 up as well, 26 points. nasdaq is up nearly 66 points. "bottom line" on bloomberg
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the hour, and that means bloomberg tv is on the markets. i want to look at what is going on with the major averages. the s&p 500 has wiped out its losses for 2015. obviously it has been quite a volatile year already. leading the s&p higher today leaving stocks generally higher, the nationals. at those had been a great laggards. now we're looking at xls, jumping 1% higher. -- xlf. my guest says the rally may increase if you look at the options market. joining me our options reporter for bloomberg news. what are we seeing in the options market? >> we are seeing the options market with more puts and calls than any time since 2012. it has been several years. and because of the price action in the last few days -- keep in
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mind, all of the expectations are going into that and with that being upheld, it may be rebounding and this may be temporary, but i think investors are mostly bearish. >> so interesting. not necessarily thinking the negative outlook is priced into the stocks. i know going into it investors looking at oil prices and interest rates. let's go through there and say why those may still be negative. let's start with oil. this is something you have talked about over the past month, really as we have seen an acceleration in oil growth declined. why is this so important when it comes to financials? it is not a natural leave that you make. >> they have a lot of exposure to the countries that make oil part of their economy, and it's really would be a hedge for them. if you look at the index is the
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last seven days, we have had bracket banks. if people are looking down on those they are probably looking down on the entire sector. then you have to ask when oil is going to quit declining. no one wants to make a call on oil. >> right. and of course, the other piece is interest rates. there have been conversations for years now that this would be good for the lending margins at these companies, and yet we have not seen it happen. >> yeah, it is sort of putting that on hold a little bit or pushing it off. i don't think it is going to happen this year. it's really not set in stone at all and people are worried. if you are a bank and you are paying more for deposits when you're getting back then you're not going to make that much money. i think they would rather put their money somewhere that does
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>> welcome, everyone, to the most important hour of the close. i am trish regan. this is "street smart." investors are betting on a more stimulative your p and central-bank. so we have a focus on the ecb plan. and we are counting down to earnings out of starbucks. "street smart" starts now. but first, here is a look at the top stories we are watching for you.
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