tv Countdown Bloomberg January 23, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST
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"countdown. >> hello and welcome to" -- >> hello and welcome to "countdown." king abdullah of saudi arabia dies at age 90. >> and ages richest man is in exclusive talks to buy o-2 for as much as 10.2 5 billion pounds -- 10.20 5 billion pounds. >> we are live in davos. i am francine lacqua. >> and i am guy johnson. >> a central bank governor joins
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us. >> and we will sit down with japan's central bank governor. he will be joining us later. ♪ >> king abdullah of saudi arabia has died at the age of 90 after being admitted to the hospital with a lung infection. >> he became ruler of the world's largest oil producer in 2005. he will be succeeded by his half weather, prince salman, who is 79. he used the oil wealth to oversee a fivefold increase in the size of the arab world's largest economy. >> president expressed his condolences to the saudi royal family, calling abdullah a ruler who took a bold stand. the price of oil futures rose in the wake of the announcement of
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his death. >> of his death. >> in the new came will face an immediate foreign-policy challenge in neighboring yemen as the president there has resigned after shiite rebels have seized a palace in the p >> the rebels failed to honor an agreement to withdraw from the palace. in his letter of resignation, he says the country had reached a dead end. >> let's get to elliott gotkine. >> good morning. news that king abdullah has died. he ruled the arab world's biggest economy, the biggest oil exporter for 10 years. he served for two decades after his half-brother suffered a stroke in 1995. he was one of the world's richest and most powerful men. he was 90 years old. he did suffer a lung infection recently, which led to him being hospitalized. and you get to that age with that kind of illness, he and is
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probably not going to be too far away. that does not make it any less shocking. particularly saudi's -- particularly for saudi's. the funeral will be held later today. vice president joe biden is expected to be among those attending. >> he does face this immediate foreign-policy challenge across the board of it -- the border. >> yes. yemen has been unstable for a number of years. they lost their previous ruler as part of this arab spring, if he was like. those rebels have been advancing on the capital for a while. the president says the country has come to a dead end. some of it has spilled over, from time to time, into saudi arabia. the saudi's are seeking to ensure that that does not happen and that there is stability in this part of the region. that is something that came --
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king salman is going to have to deal with. >> thank you very much. elliott gotkine reporting there. >> we're going to doubt most -- to davos. lee catching -- li kashing is said to be near a deal with o2 .together, hutchison 's network and o2 would have over 31 million surprised -- subscribers. >> let's get over to fran and g uy. >> thank you so much. we have survived the weather and the parties. we are doing good. we are excited because today, we will be talking about china. we will be talking to the japanese central bank of the we have plenty of exclusive interviews. we are now joined by the
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publicis ceo, one of the veterans of davos. that is a compliment. i do not know why he is off the -- he is off. [laughter] thank you so much for joining us. this davos feels quite difficult because it seems that we do not know where we are heading. people are not optimistic. they are not pessimistic either. it is a little bit of a wait and see mode. there are more questions than answers, which makes investors worried. you concern that europe, despite the qe we saw yesterday, is in a difficult place? what europe is in a difficult situation. the fact that president draghi has made the decision regarding the buyback of the debt is something which is definitely good but this will not solve
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the fundamental issues of many of the countries. we need to do a lot of very deep reforms that have been long-awaited. and we need to create the conditions to re-create jobs in europe. the situation of the jobs in europe and unemployment is such that this is a cancer for our countries. there is a lot to be done to we are not yet their -- there is a lot to be done. we are not yet there. we need structural reforms. >> are you think the leaders will take advantage of the window that has been granted? the euro is heading lower. we have also gotten into a window of lower oil prices. it seems there is a window of opportunity. do you get a sense that that will be used?
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>> that is a key question. you have two options. one is a relief. we do not need to do that and we do not need to do these typical reforms. growth will take care of our issues. the other option, which i hope will be the option is to say ok, we have an incredible situation. all of the planets are aligned. now it is the right time to take the right decision. you need strong leaders. do we have them? i hope so. >> is that your main concern? when you look at politics, there is a danger that there are extreme parties. you have this qe. at the same time elliptically it is very uncertain. does that make you further away from europe? as a businessman, how do you deal with this? >> i do not have to deal with that. i have nothing to do and there
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is nothing i can do as a businessman to participate. the solution between the parties , the key question is, are people courageous enough to say, ok, maybe i was elected, and i will do what is right for my country. we need some people to say, what ever are the issues, whatever are the political parties, whatever the far right is doing, i will stick to my objective which is to put my country in order to grow for the future. >> growth through reforms. >> i do not we can achieve sustainable growth without doing some reforms. i may be wrong. i am not an economist. i am just a businessperson.
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when you look at what is making growth, it is clear that when you have more than 50% of the revenue generated and 5 million people out of a job in a country for more than 50% of the population cannot get a job and you have one third of the youth cannot get a job, this is a huge problem. the only way to solve the problem is to do some very important structural reforms. i do not see any other solution. >> can you give me a sense of the difference that exists now between how the consumer in the united states feels and spends and the consumer in europe? it seems like they are almost two planets at the moment. >> the consumer in the u.s. has been always very positive about consumption. with some weak moments. it is a trend which has always
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been positive in the u.s. when they have to take a decision, they take a tough decision, brutal sometimes, and they go back to work pretty quickly. in europe, we believe that our population cannot accept something which is too tough, so we go slowly. the impacts of the reforms are not big enough. people are concerned for the future. they see that there are lots of problems so they are saving instead of spending. on top of this, when you look at what is forming the pessimism it is all about the way the leaders are taking them to the future. today, it is hard to say that the consumer the citizens of
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europe, feel comfortable about where the leaders are taking them for the future. >> talk to us a little bit about business in china. we have quite a big presence in davos with premier li and jack ma of alibaba. how difficult and important is it for you to continue your relationship with alibaba? it can single-handedly change all of our lives. >> it is extremely important. even in their recent slowdown of their growth in china it is important to be in china. we continue to invest. and it is difficult. for cultural reasons and also because competition is fierce. as soon as there is a slowdown, the impact is very strong. we need to invest, obviously. jack markell has -- jack ma has
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done a fantastic job. i consider him one of the key people of the future. the same happened with the news, michael bloomberg. he is part of this handful of people who have transformed the industry. what he is doing with alibaba in china is very impressive. we are truly proud to do that and we believe that we are just at the beginning of dramatic changes in the way people in china buy products. the key question regarding alibaba is not so much about china -- >> it is here. >> can they take their model globally?
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it is difficult. it is difficult because they have something which is very chinese-like. the mindset is tailor-made for the chinese and it is working extremely well. it is an economic success. they will have to think differently. they want to use their system for the u.s. or europe. >> we only have 10 seconds. who is the one person you would like to have a nightcap with? a politician or a big ceo. >> i would love to have jack ma. politician, i would go to sleep. >> thank you so much. >> really nice. we have plenty of big hitters coming up throughout the day
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here in davos. for now, back to you. >> thank you very much. he is a big fan of alibaba. >> jack ma in davos. didn't soros say yesterday that he is the ceo that most ceos want to meet? >> yes. you can join in the conversation on twitter. plenty from that interview with maurice leavitt -- levy. we will take a short break and see you in a couple of minutes. ♪
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>> time for today's company news. jamie dimon has received his first cash bonus in three years. he is getting a $7.4 million cash reward for 2014 on top of $11 million of stock rewards and a one point $5 million salary. his previous bonuses were limited to stock after he was criticized after the handling of a trading debacle in 2012. lloyd blankfein reportedly made $24 million last year. continuing the theme, tim cook saw his total pay package more than double to $9.2 million last year. apple has grown since it unveiled its larger iphones and slimmer i've has last year -- ipads last year.
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the company's market cap was sent towards $700 billion, a milestone that no u.s. company has reached. bayern munich generated more than a fifth of germany's revenue in germany's football the last year. the german champions pulled in 529 million euros in sales compared with the 2.5 billion euros made by all teams. >> speculation the european central bank president revealed his plan to reignite the economy yesterday. under his 1.1 trillion euro qe program, the ecb will buy 60 billion euros of assets, including sovereign debt every month until september 2016. the announcement pushed european stocks higher with all major indices closing up over 1%. it also sent the euro to an
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11-year low against the dollar. all eyes are now turning to sunday's elections in greece. their government must decide on extending a bailout program that expires next month. new polls show a lead for the leftist cerise a -- syriza party. investors and creditors are being spooked by the implications of a potential victory. >> now let's see how the world has been reacting to mario draghi's historic easing decision. let's go live to doubles -- to davos, where jonathan carroll has been catching up with the great and the good. >> it went eerily quiet at 2:30 local time when that news conference started with mario draghi. the overwhelming consensus is that the ecb really delivered. i think also, the consensus is
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one, it is necessary, but two, is it going to be sufficient? >> i think this is welcome action from the ecb. action from a central bank is necessary, but not sufficient or a european recovery. we want to see this accompanied by clear plans to make the european union more competitive, to back business, to create jobs and make sure public finance is in order. we have those ingredients in the u.k. and that is why our plan is delivering a strong economic recovery. we want to see those ingredients in place for the whole european continent. >> you have a weakening euro. you have an aggressive stimulative policy by the ecb. it is going to lead to a more positive europe. we are not addressing some of the major structural issues. i would call this -- this is going to give europe more time
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to hopefully fix itself. >> this type of approach that mario draghi is using should have been employed much earlier in the financial crisis, which would have gotten europe on a similar kind of platform that the u.s. has been on. >> whether it is too late or not, the debate has been how effective this package could be. on top of that, we talk about the issue of time. the monetary policy is here now. got to have the structural reforms on the other side. at best, this is going to buy some time. mario draghi has done his bit. now everybody else has got to do theirs. the magic word is reforms. >> the first act of this week's european drama took place in frankfurt. the second act is looking to unfold this weekend in athens.
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>> it is also connected to the first act. a said they would not be buying greek bonds until july the they want to sort out that bailout program. the deadline now is march. i caught up with a man at the top of the eurogroup. the question for him is whoever wins the election, you have got to negotiate with them. what are you going to do? are you going to be more accommodating? >> there is very little support for a debt haircut. the support for the greeks is making the debts more sustainable and bearable. giving them more time to repay the loans. making it more bearable, we have done that already. that would be possible to look at once again. but actually reducing the value of the loans, taking a haircut, i do not think that is going to go anywhere. >> there are a couple of carrots
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here. on the one side, you have monetary policy. you negotiate with us you continue that bailout program continue to do what we say, we will buy your bonds in july. on the other side, he was saying we can make it more bearable, maybe extend securities and reduce interest rates. remember the concern over the greek elections a couple of months ago? i think that dissipated somewhat in the short term. without bond buying program and -- i think the debate is on here in davos. >> jonathan ferrell with a wrap -- john farrell -- ferro with reaction. thank you. >> john dawson is in hong kong. good morning, john.
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>> the markets china up by almost 2%. off of those highs now. australia is closed. the shanghai, is it -- the shanghai composite did raise but the rally has eased off. the concern is, have they analyzed and thought about this afternoon september? if they do not have inflation back it will go on and on and on. >> ok, john. thanks a lot. john dawson live in hong kong. >> let's talk about the telecom sector in the u.k. the consolidation trend continues with the news that li kashing of hutchison went: -- whampoa is in talks to buy o2.
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caroline, good morning. >> second time, lucky. it was known that o2 was trying to sell itself to bt earlier. these telecom deals keep on rolling in and this time, it looks as though hutchison whampoa is going to potentially be the lucky buyer of o2 which is owned by telefonica in spain. a huge deal for a huge company. it will be the biggest mobile player in the united kingdom. 31 million subscribers. hutchison whampoa and o2 teaming together. 10.20 5 billion pounds is what -- 10.25 billion pounds is what the deal could be. we heard from the finance director of hutchison whampoa. perhaps all of that cash would
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not be stopped up by hutchison whampoa. for telefonica, it is about reducing their debt. they piled up the debt and went on spending sprees. they spent more than 17 billion pounds. they need to lower that equity. >> tying up with each other. >> deals and the speculation caps on flowing. in the last day or so, we had sky the biggest tv provider in the united kingdom, paid tv program -- provider, was looking to strike wholesale deals or perhaps do a deal with vodafone. but would vodafone buy virgin media or liberty global? the deals could be endless. it is about being able to have tv mobile, landline, and broadband together. li kashing coming over here and
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dollar permit 7% in the last 12 months against the u.s. currency. analysts forecast it will end at $1.15. that could shift after they moved by the ec be. -- ecb. revising their forecast to $1.15. still, a minority predicting the euro will fall to parody as -- parity. brown brothers harriman are some of the only analysts that agree the exchange rate will fall to that level by the end of next year. one group says the euro may achieve parity.
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will the forecasts change in light of what happened yesterday? time will tell. there is zero against the dollar -- bureau against the dollar. >> the election in greece is in its final stretch. the next government must decide against extending the bailout program. voters have been attracted to their opposition to the bailout well creditors have been spooked by the locations of the potential victory. the president of yemen and his government has quit after shiite rebels seized his palace. in a resignation letter, the president said the country had reached a dead end with tribal leaders refusing to take orders from the capital. munson unrest have seen the growth of al qaeda and concern
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in neighboring saudi arabia. saudi arabia's king abdullah has died. his brother salman has succeeded him on the throne. oil prices jumped after the announcement. >> let's go more on the death of abdullah. what does this mean for the price of oil? >> it jumped but it is still below $50 per barrel. the price will move on the uncertainty of what is next that perhaps the oil minister has been in place for 20 years. he is really the one calling the shots when it comes to oil production in saudi arabia. he is the one that engineered the policies behind this. saudi arabia feels and he feels
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saudi arabia has gotten burned by cutting production, giving up market share. there was one moment in time when the north sea took off production as a result of the saudis cutting back and really lost market share. they did not get to enjoy the rising price. that is how he thinks. as long as he is in his job -- >> is not at 100%. >> he is 80 years old. he says he is ready to go. he is a fit man. all you have to do is go to vienna. every morning, he does a speed walk. the reporters chase after him. it is very much -- will king salman and change? -- bring change?
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in the capacity of the crown prince. he said we will continue with our policy in the foreseeable future. the idea that it would be silly to enter into this game they have entered into where they are not cutting production and not see it through. if they were all the sudden to cut production what would it lead to? it would have been meaningless. if you think the idea is to take out she'll producers and not lose market share. -- shakle producers lose market share. he says very little. some will say, the kingdom is hurting. 46% of their revenue comes from oil. >> can will stress the budget of the country -- this will stress the budget of the country. >> this infers that the saudis
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think if they cut production that will be better for the budget. i'm not convinced they believe that. they think that their policy is working well. they think it will work its magic by the end of the year. we will see if there are changes but there are no signs yet. >> now too much anticipation. the wait for qe is over. mario draghi announced total asset purchases of 1.1 billion eurozone. didn't blow you away or not? >> he is good with coming out more than you thought he would. from the newswire stories talking about 50 billion eurozone month, suddenly it is -- euros a month, suddenly it is 60.
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it everything they can do. they say they are not against the idea of buying bonds with negative yield which someone thought they would rule out. there is nothing much ruled out. the doubts about whether that's get -- this gets inflation up will continue. the success of quantitative easing has been through lower bond yields. i have been blown away completely blown away, by how fast the euro has continued to follow without anybody ever having to see any -- >> what exactly do you make of the pledge made yesterday. was it 60 billion euros or in
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open-ended thing? >> i heard both. i think we are going to get it until september next year. but i think there is a clear hint -- if it has not solved the problem. >>this will not be the last we hear on monetary policy. >> what do we think of the risksharing fudge. essentially 80% of it will be national central bank. is that a good balance, a good compromise? >> i don't know if it is much of a compromise in the sense that if it had been 100%, 80% is closer to 100% than 50%. i thought it was interesting
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that mario draghi was downplaying concerns anybody might have about this. this will only be an issue in the event of failure of losses being sustained. someone not been able to finance their debt in one country. it is a semantic discussion. not something we should get ourselves to excited about. my concern about it will be if at any point you see investors say could i and of being in trouble here? should i really be buying longer dated peripheral data? i andam i been compass aided for the risk? -- being compensated for the risk?
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>> did you see anything in the details that answers the question? some suggested one of the issues was how do you incentivize those who hold these bonds to sell these bonds? have they fix that? >> i don't know how they will do it. they will come in and by which will keep prices high. we were concerned with that in terms of private sector debt. the bank of england's experience was difficult. there was no indication they would do that. i think they can by the government debt in he says they want. through the system. i'm not concerned about that. >> in the search for yield where does it take us now? >> certainly the first reaction is going to be a move into
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eastern europe and places like that. on the currency site, you look at things like the polish -- you think that is more yield next-door. that will benefit the bond market. within europe, things like seeing your bank debt -- senior bank debt. the market is assuming the search for yield takes us out of the yield. otherwise they would not be selling and with so much enthusiasm. >> a global strategist. we will be back after a short break. we will talk about greece. >> let us know what you think of the show on twitter. have you ever been quoted before? -- promoted before? it is all about -- ♪
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stance as they get closer to the election? as someone who watches the financial fallout, is that something that has combed your nerves? >> i don't think my nerves will ever be calm around greek elections, but yes, the tone is more conciliatory. we definitely don't want to leave the euro, we want to stay in. we want to talk about what we can do about our debt burden. we are in this together. we will sit down and have a talk. the words have been more conciliatory. there is an all-around attempt at avoiding this being a catastrophe. >> and there is a carrot being waived by draghi at degrees. we well by your bonds if you stay in a program, pa conform to
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a program. they cannot buy more debt. we have to wait for some redemptions. ultimately, do you think greece will told the line and the ecb will buy their debt? >> democracy and politics are uncertain when people get upset about it. we will get through the election. there will be some attempt at finding a line they can tow. that will all be good. what makes you nervous is what you need is some kind of systemic economic path. otherwise, we can wait one year or two or three or four.
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if we have unemployment and a position where the country cannot get its debt levels down away from anything that is restructured, cannot get its budget deficit to a point where debt does not increase every year, that is a european wide problem, we will get more flashpoints. >> i last track of the number of people we heard from in davos that's a qe is only part of the story. the other is structural reform. greece has done some structural reform. many will be watching and asking questions about fragmentation of european politics. a lot of elections ahead. is that on your radar? >> reversely, not in the euro area. the election that shows how it affects politics is that in may. a big election for us.
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we are all in this country. that is the pattern in europe of the major parties having to make concessions to coalition partners left, right, and center. >> it is called guess the central bank. since the move, we have had peru, turkey. denmark. brazil has gone the other way. could we be surprised anymore? it has been an amazing eight easier. -- eight days. >> this has been the year of the surprise that in hindsight is not surprising. that is frustrating. that will hit your head on the wall print kate 80 and rates are 1%. -- on the wall. canadian rates are 1%. austria could be the next one. the way the architect traded in
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>> delegates at davos have been used to seeing security. up the mountain, it can be even more dangerous. >> a day breaks over the swiss alps. many are hard at work high above. mountain patrol are the guardians of the slopes, keeping them safe takes drastic measures. handle with care. that is dynamite. >> 90 seconds time. >> hard to reach areas, the mountain patrol used something more direct. >> we use it more and the swiss army. it works really well.
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>> last night heavy snow f all means there is work to be done to read controlled avalanches are important to keeping the slopes safe. >> we had rain one week ago and that is bad. we have a problem the whole winter time. >> it does not take much to trigger a slide. >> you always need a week later. -- weak layer. the elements will go. good one.
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>> it also helps if you know what you are looking for. >> you just have to read it. there are a lot of crocs already. >> here, we try to do it artificially. >> for the slopes out of reach they call on the swiss army. >> so far, so good .>> the ridge is safe for today. tom gibson, bloomberg. >> that looks like dangerous work. just over an hour until the start of european equity danger in -- trading. and the stories we are fond of. bloomberg u has a story about mario draghi and the ecb.
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the raise a couple of questions. they ask whether it was a promise to get 60 million euros of assets a month. or about doing that until you get a sustained -- not a great deal of clarity on that. dp suggests although there was a big number a plan we heard from the ecb yesterday and at the end of the day, the size of the thing. that is what traders were listening to. bp suggests it is to supporting were these complications. the firm bloomberg piece
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suggested -- also, 80% of the debt purchased will not have the risk share across the union. it suggests it is your responsible to plant the idea that you could still have this debt in silos. >> getting closer to doomsday. >> it is friday, we are not supposed to have these dreary thoughts. >> i was drawn to this. the message by the bulletin of atomic scientists. they have moved in the historic doomsday clock forward by two ticks. the threats from unchecked climate change and nuclear weapons have created the biggest existential crisis for humanity since the cold war. it was established in 1947 by manhattan project scientists. the idea was to create a visible
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we will sit down with japan's central bank governor. >> king abdullah died at the age of 90 coming weeks after being admitted to a hospital. >> he became ruler of the largest oil producer in 2005. he will be succeeded by his brother salman. he used the oil wealth to help economic growth. >> president obama expressed his condolences, calling him a ruler who took bold steps. they are the biggest oil exporter.
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the price rose in the wake of the announcement. >> the new king will face a challenge in neighboring yemen. the president has resigned after rebels seized his palace. >> they failed to honor an agreement to withdraw from the palace. in his letter of resignation the president said the country had reached a quote that end -- dead end. >> the big news, the death of king abdullah. he was de facto ruler for pretty much two decades since his half-brother suffered a stroke in 1995. being in that position meant he was effectively one of the world's richest and powerful people. but he was not immortal. he was 90 years old. he suffered a long infection
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which led to him being hospitalized. no surprise he has died in that sense, but that does not make it less shocking for saudis. the funeral will be held in riyadh and u.s. president joe biden is expected to attend. >> the ring was not without challenges. >> many of the perpetrators from 9/11 were from saudi arabia. at the same time, he opposed a regional peace plan. diplomatic trade relations with the arab world to more recently, the arab spring. he sent takes in bahrain to: uprising in the neighboring country. spend $130 billion to build low-cost housing and boost salaries to try to keep calm in the kingdom.
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>> abdullah is being succeeded by his half leather. what does it mean in terms of change of policy? >> the answer is not a lot in the short term. you are not going to choose a successor that is going to disagree with you on major points. there is an element of uncertainty. that is probably why we have seen oil prices spiked. politically, i don't pick anybody expects major changes from saudi arabia in the short-term. >> elliott, thank you very much. >> just before we cross over come a other story we are following read each a pass richest man is said to be close to a deal for the u.k. wireless company. he is in exclusive talks. together, their network would have more than 31 million
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subscribers. >> with the ecb's words ringing in our ears, let us get out to davos. >> thank you. we are excited to have the day after this huge historical decision, being joined by the bank of italy governor. thank you for joining us early in the morning. give us a sense of your feeling on the market. the euro is continuing to be strong. is that a job well done for the ecb? >> our mandate is to deliver price stability. this is a move that tries to achieve that. the transmission channels are many. the exchange rate is not a target for monetary policy.
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as the portfolio rebalance is, it increases the supply of money. this will take place for the next couple of years. the size which is high come a larger than what was expected by most. it includes the instruments we can purchase to produce this increase. the timing which is sufficiently quick. also open ended. >> mario draghi said he was surprised everybody was focusing on the issue of risk sharing. in terms of the kind of discussion you have had, how big a focus was there? how did the compromise come about?
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was there a discussion about whether this would send a message that the eurozone is fragmenting? >> three issues to consider. the first, it was established i us that these tools are legitimate tools. the second, there was a large majority. a lot thought it had to be now. the third is on the issue of risk sharing. i have been public. everybody knows i think we have to share it. we are a union and we have to trust and build trust. we are not a fiscal union. in the minds of some, this has come as an important condition. at the same time, not -- i am
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not worried about the risks on central banks. we will cover these risks. we will have sufficient assets for that. we should make progress towards more of a union. at the same time, we have to build on this. it is a good starting point. it makes -- using what some call unconventional monetary policy tools. >> when you say this was open ended, are you suggesting that if you do not reach the targets, this will continue? you think at the same level? >> also, our target is a medium-term price change below
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but close to 2%. we are far away from that. we had the single experience of a negative change of prices last month. because of oil prices. also core inflation. other commodity prices. it is below 1%. >> you will continue till the job is done. is this whatever it takes? >> it is the -- very important. it shows the responsibility. we have the responsibility to deliver price stability. this is what we have to do. >> you spoke at the beginning of the multiple channels on which
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this will have an effect. you mentioned artfully over rebalancing. do you think -- can you give us a sense of how that will work? i guess was saying european equities are going up. is that one of the desired fx?e ffects? >> reducing the long-term -- asset demand responding to that. creating the possibility of stimulating the economy. at the same time, it affects inflation. it were of -- it reduces the risk of real rate increasing. >you have less expectation of tightening monetary conditions. this way you move in the
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direction of more investment and assets. >> exactly how concerned are you about deflation? we have been speaking to the opec secretary general. saying, i'll most cannot predict the price of oil. -- i almost cannot predict the price of oil. it must make your job more difficult. >> falling oil prices have a positive effect on the real economy. it affects the producers. at the same time it has to confront itself. if you go in a state of negative inflation rates, deflation, for a long time this is a problem
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for those -- states or private households. because -- the combination of the two can be negative. there is no such thing as good deflation. if you have deflation, the prices of certain commodities go down. this is a relative price change. the absolute level is now not growing. pauline. -- falling. >> the second round effect of this is something you are considering carefully.
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when you talk to your colleagues and dig about this problem, how do you think about the issue of how the primary effect the first derivative -- how the second derivative and wages works. is there a fear we will see wages being suppressed? how serious a concern is this? >> there is a change in the labor markets. there is a change in the economy at large. innovation, technology having really surprised us. the rate at which it has innovated. the globalization. one thing we see is somehow fragmentation of the labor markets. there are certain wages. certain of these are resistant to reductions. there is a lot of flexibility and other sides of the economy.
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the second round effects may be there. we have to find them. in general, we have seen inflation going down. we have very low rates of inflation independent of the second round effects. >> how concerned are you about the greek elections? how much time did you spend discussing it? q he was a couple of days ahead. it provides little bit of it feeling a matter what happened sunday. >> we are not going to interfere with their democratic process. at the same time, the discussion was on the euro area. we are each one of us thought coming from -- we are looking at the area at large. we have experiences from
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different countries that we used to form our opinions but we look at all the others. this is not really an issue. >> under what circumstances would you buy or not by a greek bonds -- not buy greek bonds? >> this is all set up. that is not an issue. we discussed when we would start buying various kinds of bonds it will be possible. issuers we thought had to be -- >> one final question. journalists like to talk about qe as being uncharted territory. we are entering a new era of monetary policy. as a central bank, when you step
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back and try to understand what you are looking at, is the uncharted territory thought to be maxed out -- knocked out clearly? >> we have a better understanding. printed money, don't print money. purchase assets. it is unconventional because we are defining conventional policy as movements in the last 20 or 30 years. at the same time, we have experience with other countries. we have seen arab on sheet down by -- our bond sheet down by 30%. it has increased by six 60%. the experience has been positive. ben bernanke says -- i think it
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can work in practice. >> what is your take on the health of the financial system? we had a reform in italy hailed as the biggest banking reform in the last 20 years. was this pushed and wanted by you? does it mean we will be in a better place at the end of the process? >> we had an assessment read as showing some problems in the italian baking system. the italian baking system had been resilient even in the bad state of the real economy we only have to banks -- because of a lot of internal problems. at the same time, we are going to face -- we have to have
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higher capital ratios across the board. we have to be able to have banks that can raise capital when needed. these banks have performed overall well. we think, i thought and have been clear on that in the last years even very recently, that the governments of these banks and the transparency the way they can support the economy given that these are large banks that operate not at local level -- this goes in that direction. we will see how much consolidation takes place. >> thank you for joining us. i know you had to leave but otherwise we can keep you here for hours. thank you for joining us. >> more great interviews coming up. talking to telecoms. naming time, back to you.
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>> thanks a lot. great interview with the bank of italia governor. what ever it takes. >> open-ended. 18 minutes past seven. as the price for power in greece enters its final hours they are making their final pitches. the party maintains its lead ahead of the prime minister. let's go to athens. thank you for joining us. how is the final stretch shaping up? >> today is the last full day of campaigning. the party leaders give their last campaign rallies. the prime minister gets his big rally in athens. people are in crete. there was a big rally there yesterday.
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gerry adams gave him a call to wish him good luck to read it looks like he is going to win by the way the polls are showing. it would be a historic victory for the left. the polls are showing it would take one of the biggest electoral comebacks -- the question is as far as the holes are concerned whether he can win with an overall majority or whether they will have a governing coalition. the polls show it would be in a coalition. they are gaining any polls but not enough to have a majority. >> interesting to see whether it is a coalition that transpires. let's talk about quantitative easing and the policy
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announced by mario draghi. what bearing will that have on the elections? >> both came soon after the announcement to try to claim it as an indication of their own positions. draghi has said greece will not be included in quantitative easing until july. this was expected, not a surprise. greece would not immediately be included. effect that he has come out and said greece cannot be included desk can be -- the fact that he has come out and said greece can be included in july is a little bit of a carrot. this is a big step forward for greece and europe. talk the next government will utilize career there are conditions for greece to qualify. this puts them in a quandary.
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one is they have to close the current bailout review which started in september and has been stalled for over a month. this is a bailout review, with the debt inspectors representing the euro area and imf. they oppose the bailout. it is a challenge to see how they will close this review. the other important condition is greece in july has bonds from the ecb. which will need to be redeemed. bonds held by the ecb. a big plank of the strategy is they say -- >> marcus thank you for joining us. we believe it there. we look forward to the results over the weekend. >> the davos spectacular
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continues. let's go back to francine and guy. >> we spoke to one of the biggest companies in the world in terms of advertising. now we are talking telecoms. it's exciting. thank you for joining us. there is a lot going on in telecoms at the moment. we heard about a big deal announced. you have sold your u.k. assets. give a sense of consolidation opportunities. where do you want your company to be a year from now in terms of alliances? strategic as well? >> we are a european telco. 90% of our revenues come from europe. europe is playing the game of consolidation which is great news. we have seen the u.k. situation with this convergence move.
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we have seen some convergence and consolidation in spain. probably we are in the process of requiring -- one of the big providers. we want to be stronger in convergence also in spain. there are other european markets where we pay attention on what is going on. romania, belgium. just to mention two of them. europe has gone much too far in fragmentation of the industry of telecom. now there is a need for consolidation. that is what we are going to see in the coming months. >> how far does that consolidation go? what is the sense you get from the regulatory authorities about whether it is three operators in a country, four?
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>> things are moving quickly which is good. probably two or three years ago it would have been difficult to imagine you could reduce the number of operators because there was a dogma in the antitrust authority. i'm not saying the consolidation has helped or supported -- is helped or supported by the regulators. this is an economic move coming from companies. the fact is today, they say publicly there is no magic number. it can be four or three. in germany, you could have three mobile operators. in the u.k., we had five. now it is for. -- four. things are moving quickly. provided we can commit to this which is the main point for europe. investing in the networks.
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asia and the u.s. in terms of mobile broadband. europe will allow consolidation in my view. >> i know it is difficult to pinpoint a figure. you were saying maybe three and the u.k. in the coming years new. can you envision two or three in europe? if the consolidation phase is taking place. can you envision a landscape with only three operators in europe? parks theoretically, why not. there are four in the u.s. for a market which is the same size as europe. three in china or more than one billion people. three in japan. why not? it will take a lot of time. we had to have a single market in europe, which does not exist today. 28 markets and regulators.
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competition authorities. europe the telecom industry, does not exist. that's the reality. there is a prospect and political will for a more invigorated space. including spectrum and so on. maybe in 10 years or 15 years we will see. two, three or four karin >> that is the vertical consolidation story. can i ask you about the vertical story? we used to talk about tmc. we used to talk about media and technology. telecom companies together. doing to start it about that again? doing to start talking about you as being a content company? looking at what is happening in
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the u.k.. >> it is a completely different story. what you call horizontal consolidation is an economic evidence. the need for investments triggers consolidation. when it comes to content distribution or media two cal -- to telecom it is more complex. it depends on every company's strategy and every market. at the end the day, my view is can we see a single market between internet access? if you think one day you will have a single market, maybe with a bundle combining access mobile and pay-tv
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content, you have some commendations. so -- combinations. so far, it has not in the case. the authorities are looking in a segmented way on telecom services and pay-tv. very different companies, very different cultures. it is true that there are interesting moves. ourselves, we have been quite ambitious in the content edition. there was no economic -- benefit to invest. >> that is immediate. the battle for delivering it you have to take an immediate hit by buying a lot of content. do you believe that is the only way forward 10 years from now? >> i think basically be telecom
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players are content just to beaters. their job is to provide the maximum range of attractive content for the customers. it is not necessary for them to create it themselves. you had to invest a lot in the networks. 4g. if you are also spending billions of euros acquiring rights it is a lot of money. you cannot do everything. you have to make choices between what is your core business and terms of investments. we invest 6 billion euros every year. if i had to put one billion euros to acquire soccer rights -- 600 or 700 million euros -- it is almost 20% of my expenses. today i cannot find the equity
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story that could justify such an investment. >> your thoughts on the announcement yesterday from frankfurt. do expect it to have a meaningful impact on your business? how does it work from your point of view? >> broadly speaking, i think it is a good news for europe and the european economy. the governments that are trying to reduce deficit and public expenses. it will give some time. i hope the political will bull be there -- will will be there. for a comedy like orange, we have some debt. the prospect to pay less, lower interest rate is nice of course. at the same time, we work to reduce globally the volume of
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that. i don't expect this will change anything in my business. we have -- my business is relatively independent from the macroeconomic context. the development of digital use is so incredible, it does not depend on macroeconomics. broadly speaking, i'm happy and i think it is a good decision and a good move for your. >> thank you for joining us. the ceo of orange for a bloomberg exclusive. plenty more coming up. >> we do. a big date in davos back to you. >> let's have another look at your fx check. the euro, the eurozone. after the measures announced yesterday by mario draghi. the euro dollar has fallen
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1.9%. at the lowest level since september 18, 2003. on track for its third consecutive week of decline. the longest stretch since september. the euro down by 6%. 17% over the last 12 months. 93 analysts surveyed by bloomberg news forecast it will end the year higher than this level. that could shift in light of the moves yesterday by the ecb. already we have ubs revising their forecast to $1.10 from $1.15. a minority of strategists have predicted a drop to parity. which is interesting.
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they are the only banks in a bloomberg survey that agree the exchange rate will fall that low by the end of next year. one says the euro may achieve parity as soon as the first half of this year. expect those strategists to tweak those forecasts in light of the qe. but the euro is it on track for the sixth week of decline against the dollar. >> these are the bloomberg headlines. the election contest in greece is in its final stretch. with new polls indicating the antaeus charity party is poised for victory. the new government must decide on extending the bailout. investors and creditors have been spooked by the invocations of the potential victory.
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the president of yemen has quit after shiite rebels seized his palace. he said the country had reached a dead end with tribal leaders refusing to take orders from the capital. months of unrest have been thus have seen the growth of al qaeda and concern in neighboring saudi arabia. in saudi arabia king abdullah has died. has half brother will succeed him on the throne of the biggest oil exporter in the world to oil prices jumped after the announcement of his death. >> should we go back to davos? it is all yours. >> we are in davos. we were talking to our next guest which is why we did not hear you. we are now joined by a former barclays ceo. thank you for coming in.
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how does this year stack up? you have a business going on for a couple of years. asset growth and other ventures. the mood is one of not optimism. people are worried because they have questions but not answers. >> atlas merchant capital is focused on financials. that is my experience. we think 2015 is the beginning of a seminal. that's a seminal time for investing in financials. it is not that the crisis is being ignored. if you look at the dow jones or s&p 500 over the last decade, it is up about 60%. potential's are down 20%. banks are down 30%. just this year, they are down. because of the higher capital ratios, many banks, particularly
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in the eurozone, are exiting non-core businesses. the opportunity for us as a merchant bank to acquire banks not just in africa but in the developed markets is terrific. >> what is the upside on the assets? give us a sense of the opportunities they are unable to take avenge of because of the constraints. >> i think you hit the nail on the head. where is the value created? it is in a couple of places. because so many banks are forced to get a writ of non-core assets and the strategic buyer for bank assets has been other big banks. the other big banks are not acquiring, they are selling. they are trading at low valuations. fractions of book value.
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the other thing we are focused on is we are not just investors we are operators. putting the right team of people and technology in is the core for us in terms of creating value. >> what are you looking for? when you look at developed markets, i know you have given us an overview. there are names people talk about. give us your ideal scenario. >> there are a couple that have been -- barclays sold their spanish operations. about 50% of book value. that was a good acquisition for the bank that acquired it. there was a sale of pioneer asset management. a terrific platform but not core to them. >> you are in a great position. the ability to look at these businesses as they come out of the big banks opportunities you
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see in front of you. if i have put money into your business, what kind of rates of return am i looking at? do me a sense of how good this business is. >> anybody looking to raise capital is going to say we certainly would -- what we really talk about is the phenomenal opportunity that financials are presenting, particularly for an organization such as atlas purchase capital looking for not control positions but positions where we can impact the operations. the talent, the technology. financial technology is another area. >> these things are trading less than book. how quickly can you bring them back up? that is a big jump. >> there is no cookie-cutter here. every transaction is different. many businesses in the bigger
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banks were big users of leverage capital. they are likely to be shed first. that is a good example. >> we talk. there is speculation that you are interested in and something in standards -- african assets. >> i have been asked that. atlas has been a fantastic -- we have had a fantastic year. my partner and i, last year, raised three twitty 5 million in equity -- 325 million in equity to invest in africa. "countdown we did a second equity raise in the summer. -- we did a second equity raise and summer.
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we learned africa is open for business. all of them are closed open, and operating. >> every time i talk to and go to africa, it is a big place. the one thing everybody tells me is it is so not connected to read you want to do business from east africa to west africa, you are effectively going by johannesburg. you have an operation offshore. what is the kind of cross-border opportunity that exists? >> you are right. we talk about banking across sub-saharan africa, 46 countries. one of the things that has changed dramatically over the last 5-10 years is the emergence of trading blocs. the first transaction we did has banks in five countries. in botswana zimbabwe
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mozambique zambia tanzania. it gave us a good position in the trading block. the east african community as well. we acquired a bank in rwanda. we think the business environment crated by the president and finance visitor -- minister is exceptional. as we look at that region it's good to have a position you will start from. ever acquisition in nigeria was a key acquisition. we look very much at the key regions. francophone west africa. is one. key positions in those regions and then going from there. francophone west africa, a great example moving towards single currency, single central bank. a single set of banking laws.
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it is a different approach to invest in baking then 5-10 years ago. >> here in doubles, how much -- davos, how much do people ask you about -- >> barclays has a fantastic operation. they have been there 85-90 years. that was a great chance for me to learn about not just africa it impacted the family in terms of how we approach the foundation. and how banking works. >> we have no time left. thank you for joining us. back to you in the studio. >> thanks a lot. look forward to coming back to you any matter of minutes. do join us on twitter.
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>> time for today's are chart. -- bar chart. is u.s. stocks volatility here to stay? it moved one point 9% from its lowest to its highest levels of the day. the think straight swing of more than 1%. the longest stretch since an 18 day run ending on june 21 2012. the s&p has posted a move of .85% each day. that is almost double the range
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of 2014. the cost fear for u.s. stocks since 2006. have a look at this chart. this is the vicks index, the fear index over the last 12 months. it amounts to forecasts for stock swings over the next 30 days. since january come the 15th, it has fallen by 27%. the lowest level for the year finishing at 16.4%. analysts predict it will average 16 in 2015. close to the current level. an increase of 13% from the mean of 14.18 in 2014. if correct, would be the highest average since 2012.
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they forecast the daily volatility will increase for u.s. equities in 2000 15 -- 2015. analysts suggest the vix's level should be around 15 given the state of the economy. heightened market such as oil is keeping it elevated. they expected to retreat with the economy expanding at 2.5 percent. a final quick word from the chief investment strategist for philadelphia-based montgomery scott. it overseas -- he says, the roller coaster has been unsettling for the public to see. don't let it shakeout of your positions. the fundamentals have not
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changed. does that answer your question? is stock volatility here to stay in the u.s. >> talk about what is going to happen over the weekend. greece goes to the polls on sunday. if the data is correct, the greeks will vote a radical new party into government. the anti-austerity party has gone from newcomer to heavyweight in three years. we joined a senior mp on the campaign trail. >> it is under a week until election day and dns -- yanis is placing the fresh -- flesh. he is a senior mp for the party which is leading the polls. workers are concerned about hey and the future of their jobs. they are the lucky ones in many ways. greece has the highest debt to
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gdp country -- ratio of any eu country. 170% and rising. one in four adults do not have a job. greeks are angry. the anger has been channeled by the party. it is pulling four percentage points ahead of its center-right rival. 30% ahead of the traditional left party. they appear on the cusp of election victory. he has helped soften the party's stance, offering to negotiate over partners rather than dictate.
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if they win an outright majority, they will be headed towards tough negotiations with greek debt holders including the imf and the european union partners. they have run on a partner -- platform of anti-austerity. they do not have a plan b. if they win, they are going in -- >>antiestablishment, and i is -- they are being watched hawkish
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lee by the market. the big question hangs over whether they will be able to get their promised significant debt reduction. if they cannot, what next? bloomberg athens. >> the telecom consolidation trend continues with news that -- here with more is caroline hyde. >> asia's richest man is stirring up what could be the biggest mobile player. if we see -- we have the biggest player. 31 million subscribers leapfrogging the biggest in the u.k.. they did try to sell themselves to bt. telefonica who owns them is
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trying to pay down their debt. 9.2 5 billion coming in cash. 2016 is when they are looking for the deal to be wrapped up. we will have regulatory issues potentially. also, private equity could get skin in the game. the financial director saying perhaps they would like a 30% piece. europe is playing the game of consolidation. that seems to be what it is all about. >> all these companies need to invest. improve their networks. customers are demanding one player to provide not just mobile but also your tv, broadband. this is why we are seeing deals being done. you have sky, the biggest pay-tv
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operator thinking about potentially teaming up with o2. with vodafone, buying the owner of virgin media. but they do a deal as well? so many deals could be done. so many deals have been done. this is not just about the u.k. europe in general. the orange ceo saying, we could have three or four carriers. many investors have said that. why the u.s. just has four players and europe has hundreds? >> he said it we are content distributors, not creators. if we were to buy the rights to the french football league, we would blow our budget. >> asia's wealthiest man. he has done an interesting deal with his holdings. they announced a $24 billion merger. more financial flexibility.
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>> welcome to "on the move." we are moments away from the start of the trading day. saudi arabia's king dies. he will be succeeded by his half brother. will a new king mean new policy for the world biggest oil exporter? draghi's q.e. announcement fuels gains on equities across europe as the euro hits an 11 year
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floor. the greek political drama enters its final act. draghi locks greece out of bond purchases until policy questions are result. that is what we are keeping an eye on here. those bond yields equities are rising. >> let's see how we are opening up this morning. 9 seconds into trading and we are starting markets to open higher. ftse up 1/3 of 1%/ . cap 40 trading higher. it is about the ecb injecting 60 billion euros per month. they will be extended to purchase across the board not just asset based securities.
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