the euro slides and greek on deals jump. the single currency dropped below $1.11 for the first time since 2003. i am looking at futures markets, and it looks like we will get a lower open. that futures up i over 60 points. -- by over 60 points. >> europe had its best week in three years. quantitative easing was the boost they wanted to see. we will see what kind of impact there is. the banks are a critical issue. stocks are down. the yen is higher. 30 year government bond that record yields. bond yields are the lowest since 1989, when we began to gather data. it is a critical issue not just for stocks but also the cost of financing.

saying basically greece runs out of cash at the end of march. the end of march is the crunch time for cyprus to do a deal to get the imf to extend their credit degrees while they talk? we will see shorter interest rates where we are seeing much more aggressive moves. there is a view in the market the extra cost you pay for germany, for greece over germany can expand. you are going to see the cost of funding for greece in the commercial market up. what you need to ask is how much it is already priced in. is the euro moving more on quantitative easing or about dollar strength than necessarily

about the condition of syriza getting power. let's check a couple of stocks. you have iag, aer lingus. aer lingus say they are discussing a new bid from iag. iag down and eight of 1%. apparently ryanair's holding has been on the block for one month. >> that is how markets are opening up. markets are a little bit lower. i am looking at the footie down by half of 1%. the greek anti-austerity party won the decisive victory over the weekend. guy johnson is standing by. i guess the big question is what this result will be for greece's future in the eurozone. are we getting a little ahead of ourselves?

>> i think we will find out. it's going to be an interesting morning. it was a fascinating night last night. he arrived with police outriders. he is prime minister elect. you got a real sense watching him talk to some of the activists, a real sense of relief that they have done what they set out to do. a big win last night for his party. as he addressed the crowds, he talked about this being a turning point for the greek economy. >> the sovereign greek people have given a clear, strong, indisputable mandate. recessed turn the page. greece is leaving behind

austerity and authoritarianism. it will leave behind five years of humiliation and pain. >> i guess this is all about coalition building. talks through the morning, and the big question for the market and anyone who has to negotiate with greece is who will be the next finest men there -- finance minister? who will it be? >> that is a big question that still needs to be answered. in half an hours time we can start the process of government forming. we think it could be done as early as wednesday. in half an hours time the party would like to see a hard line taken with renegotiation of greece's debt. after that he is going to meet

mr. the iraqi us -- esther th -- mr. theodorakis. i think he will take a hard-line, and that will be heard loud and clear at the eurozone meeting. maybe there is room for consensus. maybe there is room for a little bit of a u-turn and a more moderate start taken on the negotiation. i think it will be interesting to see which party he opts for because that will send a strong message to the rest of europe about greece's place in the eurozone. then the finance minister who will that ultimately be? there are a couple of questions surrounding this. two names really stand out. to economists, both of whom have taken a hard-line as well. -- two economists, both of whom have taken a hard-line as well.

we should have this wrapped up by wednesday. >> hopefully. we will catch up with you later in the show. let's get over to berlin. what is the reaction when they have talk and a good game over the last couple months? it is almost like a high-stakes staring contest. who blinks first? >> the germans are indicating publicly they are going to blink. he said the agreement reached with greece remains valid. that is the sound of germans digging in their heels. some local press reports, there is an important quote from the party leader. he says greeks cannot burden germans with their debts. this is all leading up to the finance ministers meeting in brussels at 3:30 this afternoon. the most important one came from the bundesbank president. here is what he had to say in a

public broadcast interview yesterday. "i hope the new government won't call into question what is expected and what has been achieved. i believe it is in the highest interest of the great government to do what is necessary to the tackle structural problems. he said they need long-term structural reforms. it is remarkable the president of the bundesbank is giving political advice to a new government that hasn't formed yet. there are discordant voices here in germany. the left party held a victory party. 68% of the german public are opposed to restructuring debt. that gives you a good idea of what is going to be driving mrs. merkel when they meet in brussels.

>> give me some color on what they think about all this. i guess the bigger question would be is there any room for the ecb to act if the eu cannot find a political solution. has the ecb played there had already? >> she gave -- their hand already? >> she gave an interview and said while it could be technically feasible to relieve some of the debt, that would not be a decision. their hands are tied. here is what she said, it's absolutely certain we cannot agree. it is a firm line the ecb think this needs to be solved in brussels and there needs to be a political solution. there is a hand that -- hint technically it would be possible to change some of the outcomes

if the decision is made. >> we will keep the conversation on greece. we are joined by the head of global macro interest that goldman sachs. we move on to the elections and way for them to form a government, and all of a sudden there are talks of a bailout package. does he carry on talking? does he take a step back from the rhetoric he has been giving? >> the reality is the greek government faces a tight cash constrained. that has been amplified by the fact there has been no cash disbursement. whoever takes party now, whatever coalition is reached, they will have to face the facts cash is limited. beyond those payments there is

a problem and the only form of financing is not the market at the official sector again. >> i spoke to finance ministers. the indication is there willing to extend maturities -- they are willing to expend maturities. is that enough? >> for the great people this debt issue is overblown. there is one creditor, and the maturities are far into the future. it's not going to change the day to day life of great people renegotiating this debt but it could be if sustainability is regained, it could unlock further financing from the financial sector as they work their way into the marketplace, so that will make a difference.

i think from both sides there will be some interest in sitting at the table and discussing these things. >> a big question. greek bonds, how brave a man do you have to be to dip into that and start buying greek bonds? >> i would say the official sector is the dominant creditor of greece. the greek bonds that have been restructured carry very strong covenants, so they are difficult to restructure, but i think they have to be seen in the context of a dominant creditor who could extend some relief. they are a very risky proposition. >> when you look at italian debt, spanish debt is the contagion risk over? is that finished for you? >> and the boundaries of what we

think reasonable, i think so. i think spanish debt has performed very strongly. there has been this qe expectation. the inclusion of the 30 year has helped a lot. if we are talking about greek debt restructuring, but should not have large contagion effect. if we are talking about the situation becoming confrontational and a new exit picking up, i think the overall institutional framework of the eurozone is not solid enough to limit contagion risk. >> what does this mean for spanish elections later this year? does this give more encouragement? can we read too much into that at this point? >> i think that's a good question. we have seen that in a lot of political movements. there is a contagion effect.

people get emboldened by certain outcomes. we will see where great negotiations take us. it is important to consider whatever color these governments have, the principal that should hold his around the rules. the rules have to remain the common rules that have been built around the crisis. if those start getting contested is when it gets systemic. >> after the break we're going to talk about bonds a little more. record low after record low. investors are more and more willing to pick up debt with negative yields. planner it would -- why on earth would you want to pay anyone for lending more money? we will talk about that after the break. ♪

>> welcome back. here is a number for you. more than $4 trillion worth of sovereign debt now yields negative returns. more than a dozen countries large investors to hold their debt. bond yields have been dropping from japan, the u.s., and across the eurozone as we watched them fall to record lows. let's go to the cohead of global macro research at goldman sachs. this has been going on for a while in the likes of germany. why on earth would i want to

give anyone money for the privilege of lending money? it doesn't make sense to me. does it make sense to you? >> it sounds like a bad trade. the first thing to consider is if you don't buy these bonds and hold cash, you are getting a more negative yields. you have -20 basis points for cash holdings. -70 basis points. people tend to go into government securities of the highest quality and get a little more. we live in a nominal world so we think about inflation first. we think about what is our nominal return going to be. that i think explains why yields have been negative. the second issue has to do with supply in particular in relation to germany. there is this qe program a lot. people have worked out there is going to be low supply from the

german treasury and the qe program means the central bank will have to buy into the stock, so there will be less bonds for private hands to hold and that is a scarcity issue that gets reflected in prices. >> as a euro investor, do i not want to just be in treasury's? >> unless the central bank starts hiking rates. it has been discussed, and we have taken the view mostly through last year that yields got lower and lower and people were moving out to the u.s. fixed income or higher yielding currencies. the problem is if the lower yields just promote more financial easing and increases the chance they will hike you

are set to make negative returns for your bond holdings. they could be offset by the currency. most investors considering hedging their currency rates. they are looking at fixed income rates alone. and europe no one thinks the central bank will hike. >> another thing we have seen is the long end of the curve starts to flatten. typically that used to mean we are about to go into recession. is this just a parabolic reach further down the curve? >> i think it is partly to do with the supply demand imbalance. a lot of our clients did not expect the ecb to stretch its maturities of purchases to 30 years. we know they are not going to buy only 30 years. they are going to focus on the intermediate part of the curve. they have left an option. people holding german securities

with low supply are chasing their securities with the expectation there will be less of them. and the periphery what we're seeing is the spreads are very wide. >> it's one of your trades. spanish and portuguese bonds versus german and french government bonds. >> we have had this recommendation since november. it has already worked its way. the idea is the correlation of the securities you have had bonds rally in italy and spain also coming down and yield. the spread has narrowed but not as much as the yield has fallen. yields in germany get lower and lower. chances are people will think

anything affecting economic outlook will generate negative returns. if the ecb succeeds in getting inflation higher, you are talking about securities yielding below the expected rate of inflation over the next decade. people will become less affectionate to these securities. >> you expect inflation, stay well away from bonds. >> well away this year. >> the final one, as it up to the bundesbank whether they buy them or not? >> they have formulated this program and terms of sovereign risk. we have government securities and agencies backed by governments. our understanding is the national central banks can decide whether to go with one security or not.

that allows the central banks a good degree of freedom not to create distortions on the yield curve. my expectation is in germany we will see more agencies. in the periphery most of the security -- most of it will be in government securities. >> thank you for joining us. "on the move" will be back after the short break. stay with us. ♪

>> the british airways owner

could be a step closer to -- to acquiring aer lingus. a revised proposal this morning after two rejections. is that a good sign? >> it seems to be a good sign the board is considering this. the first two proposals you may not remember. both of those the board said no thanks. they are considering this. it is interesting that statement a put out this morning. they don't want the statement to go hostile. we have to wait and see what the side say. >> we will get to ryanair in the second. what is in it for them?

>> the key thing is the slots at london heathrow. that is part of the political issue and the concerned the government has as to whether the conditions are going to languish under iag. the other thing is the concept is the third runway. heathrow is completely full. there is the suggestion as long as there is no new runway iag needs new ways to grow. >> why on earth would ryanair except this deal? >> the price is right. 2:55 -- 255 is just above that. you would think he would try to get his money back after having had no success. >> up next, moments away from

the open of the greek equity market. we will bring you the full breakdown and market reaction. equities here in london a little bit lower. the ftse off by 33 points. stay with us. we're back in two. ♪

>> welcome back. r.i.m jonathan ferro. we are into the trading day and this is how things are shipping that shaping up. the dax is coming off of the all-time high and down. the euro drops overnight and comes back a little bit. the euro trades at -- the greek equity market right now. it is lower by only half of a

percent. a big election win for syriza. let's cross over to athens. guy johnson is standing by. we have the reactions in the greek equity markets and the next couple of months. what does this mean for the eurozone? >> it is going to be interesting to see what happens next. it has gone to the script. this is what was projected. it is some kind of a coalition that needs to be formed. it was interesting to watch the reaction of the people last night. he arrived to huge cheers and a sense of relief that it has stuck to a script. they pretty much achieved what the polling numbers have said.

he traveled up there with the police escorts and spoke to the people and the crowds that were gathered in the squares. this is for the domestic constituency. he spoke about the fact that this was a turning point for greece. >> the sovereign greek people have given a clear and indisputable mandate. this is turning a page and is leaving behind here and authoritarianism. it is leaving behind years of humiliation and pain. >> as they go away fascinating to see what happens next. we have stuck to the script. things have gone as anticipated.

the next few hours will be fascinating. >> the next few hours and the coming days. how key are the coalition talks? would they make any difference to the mandate? >> they will be interesting. what we are going to get is a real sense of the way he wants to travel. the message is going to be very clear. we are going to negotiate hard. many did not expect independence greece to get in and they have. it goes to the river party and i think you will see a more relaxed attitude towards this and a certain message being sent with what we need to be doing is consensus. one of the finance ministers said that greece wants to stay in the eurozone.

the message has always been given. we want to know how hard they are going to negotiate. >> great work. we will catch up with you later. let's get a guest on the business end of this. a little more perspective on the impact in greece. we are joined by the ceo of one of the largest shipping companies. he is the chief executive and joins us from greece. great to have you join us this morning. a big question that everyone wants to hear answer is whether business should fear cerise a -- syriza. >> we are glad that we are properly not going on a second election. the country could not afford a second election. we are happy that hopefully

within the next 48 hours, we will have a coalition government between syriza and the independent greeks. that is the good news. for business i guess we have to wait and see. during this would have heard a couple of conflicting messages about this. we need to see what the plan is from the new government for the different segments of business to see if it will be positive or negative. we do not know yet. >> on the shipping industry what can the government coalition do to help your industry contribution to greece. >> i am not sure if you know. the previous government made an agreement with the shipping companies to voluntarily

increase the taxes to a very high level of 400 million euros over the next 3-4 years. this is voluntary. the majority of the larger corporations have accepted that. that was an agreement from the ship owners to help the country and a difficult state. they have not said clearly what they want us to do and how they want us to help. i guess we all love our country and we want to stay here. if the things they ask are reasonable, i'm sure that we will accept it. >> have you spoken to syrixaza? >> i have not. i am not invested in politics.

the have the opportunity to take avenge of this time and -- advantage of this time and do things that are good for the country. i hope that they take this chance seriously and do reforms. for the benefit of the whole country. that is what i think everybody has wanted. >> is a weaker euro good for you and your business? is it better than no euro at all. >> for my business we obviously want a weaker euro. we are paid in dollars. if the euro is weak, it is better. obviously -- no euro, we know what is happening in countries where they had to underestimate their countries.

we want to stay in the euro and we hope that according to what they say syriza wants the same. >> a pleasure having you on the show. we had to the break. a quick check on stocks. we open 5-10 minutes ago. lower by half of a percent. the athens stock exchange is lower. we will talk about stocks over in assets -- athens.

>> welcome back to on the move. let's get back to the city -- to the stop story. how will it affect markets? 10 minutes into the market opened in aphids and stocks are down. guy johnson is standing by. the losses picking up a little bit. >> the reason for that is the talk of the conversation that will be happening about now between cerise a -- syriza and the independent greeks. they are looking for a hard negotiation and that is

beginning to make people nervous on the ground. let's get megan green. we have her thoughts on all of this. good morning. until last night, we have gone to a script. they got close to forming a government and did not get there. this morning, we are getting a government forming and there are surprises. >> very few expected them to try to form a coalition. the only thing they have in common is they are anti-austerity and anti-bailout. the coalition sends a message to berlin they are bargaining hard. >> they want to keep his party together. it was almost the complete other end of the political spectrum. >> it is true they are wrapped around and may have

similarities. it is to encourage more radical factions. the independent greeks are not demanding a lot. there is some signaling to the troika that they want concessions. >> he could say, i do not need anybody. is he in a situation where he cannot form a minority government? >> it is possible they will vote along the same lines in parliament and he can form a minority government. it is well after that. >> it is the first meeting and he will meet later on.

a slightly more moderate party. playing the field and trying to get a sense of what his options are. >> we are trying to see what he would have to give and he is in a wrong -- strong position. it is early days and hard to call who will form a coalition. >> it will be much more relaxed when it comes to getting more funding. >> they tried to figure out what the options are. he will use it for cover to do that. that has been the central case of everybody. >> they have said it they do not want to form a coalition and have gone back on their word.

it is hard to know what they thought during the election campaign. we are seeing with they are really willing to do. it is too early to call. the have a lot of options. which ever party will give them their way. >> let's talk about the money. the money will be interesting. it runs out soon. there is a later date and that is june. the reason is a big debt hump. is it depended on the negotiating style they would use? " there are ways they could push it. one is to allow the government to issue t-bills.

it would require leniency. it limits greece participating. it is not clear if they would play ball. the last is to switch and for the detroit good to say they had in election and to do this one thing. they will split it up like that. >> it depends on the tone of the conversation and the line that is being pushed. >> somebody is going to have to start making compromises soon. they will need to start trading soon. >> we talked about the banks and the flow out of the country is extraordinary. the government will not -- has

not run out of this. >> and think there is a chance they could finance that. the one thing that makes me hopeful is that it is in everybody's best interest to come up with a compromise. it is in everyone's interest. >> when you think about the scenario you face in front of us , how dangerous is this for the eurozone or how close to greece exiting our way. >> if the risk is higher, the coalition is formed. people asked if it matters. a lot of financial and economic contagion's could be volatility and losses. last night, at six he asked --

at the kiosk, there were spaniards. they are not the only ones. >> how closely aligned all of these parties are? >> the have coordinated a loss and are not exclusively aligned with any of the big opposition parties. that could change. >> is that the start of this story rolling out? >> we have elections in which u.k.i.p. will do well. there is opportunity for this anti-bailout and anti-austerity parties to do well.

>> how will this change the story and spain? >> it will lend them credibility. it will help if the have an example. we want to do something similar. >> we will leave it there. great thoughts and interesting insights. megan green. john, plenty to come from athens. we have great guess coming up and we will get a sense of what is going on. syriza says they can do it by wednesday. the script is changing. >> thank you. i will bring you a market check. the stock exchange is on a session low. within that index, the banks are taking the pain. off by 7%. greek bonds taking a hit.

the euro moved lower overnight for the first time since 2000 and three -- 2003. across europe, there is the dax in positive territory. underperforming. that is not about greece. the loss is led by the minus. join us.

>> welcome back to on the move. the russian currency is in focus and violence escalates in the ukraine. for more, let's turn to ryan chilcote. there always seems to be violence escalating. >> it is hovering just above -- we have relative stability. that is where we were. that was the worst the ruble has been. that puts pressure on the ruble. more sanctions against russia.

up until now, the conversation has been about having conversation. >> we were talking about the dollar higher and oil was going down. we have politicians saying we could switch the sanctions. how likely is it that we could get more sanctions? >> at least 30 people were killed in a shelling. the u.n. said there was indiscriminate firing on civilians. look sanctions -- you see the video. it does not get more dramatic than that. sanctions are more likely than the have been at any point since they were last introduced. you have the germans saying, if

the rebels -- and we have faxed to do this -- were behind the attacks and this is part of of a -- part of a land grab to control the area. and, if the russian involvement can be proven, there has to be more sanctions. you have obama who says, i have to approve all of that and that russian troops are involved in it. he has talked about how the u.s. is ready to take more action. >> the big one for russia is the rate. we talk about sanctions on the russian government and people. >> a lot of self sanctioning. the expectation is that they

will keep the rates where they are. there is a sense that the only reason the rate was put up was because it lost its value. some they had to be done. further out, the rates will have to come down. here is the thing. they say russian inflation is going to 15%. this is the kind of problem you do not want to have. you have deflation moving on its own. russia supports its goods and they have to bring that and. >> a rock and a hard place. that is almost it for on the move. i want to check in on greek assets. it is the banks taking most of the pain we are looking at banks

lower. this is not caring over to a weaker euro. it is of 0.27%. you want to continue, you know where i'm at.

>> of the historic when -- this historic win. >> the finance ministry says the agreements remain valid will stop -- valid. >> he meetings this morning as the party works to build a coalition. >> welcome to the polls.