we are 100 days away from the u.k. election and today the economy starts the political agenda. euro stocks 50, futures off by 1/10 of 1%. manus cranny. >> i was looking forward to say day eight and a big brother kind of voice but it is not, with a seven day rise in equity markets we are seeing a small drawdown in these equities. we have euphoria in terms of knowing the election results. now you know what the complexion of the administration is that you have to do business with. they stand there with their open arms they are all there ready to talk to greece.

but what if he is playing hardball? has he got the ability or political capacity and has europe got the stomach for "gr exit"? equities are lower and oil is having a volatile day. the number stock up 3.8%. dixon's car from got a little bit lower but we had a feast of firsts. erickson, the telecom lead operating systems all around the world. their margin is improving and that is the key take away but their fourth-quarter sales dropped. they're still facing complications.

this is the company that dropped 18% last year against the dollar and the stock was on a seven-year high so how big was this margin? north america, this is part of the reason why we are seeing a little bit of a drawdown. the north american mobile market remains so phillips, basically we disappointed ourselves and we disappointed you, that is my take away from the anna edwards interview. they will miss their 2016 targets because china and russia are slowing. 2015 was disappointing in the ceo's own words. and i did an interview, this company has two blockbuster drugs in their pipeline. and they say this drugs company is the one with the most drugs

that are payee free. cost savings, they will look at their swiss cost base. this is a stock that saw more than 30 billion swiss francs wiped off the value and is only managed to recoup 5% of that. a little bit of red across the equity market today. i believe it there. -- i will leave it there. >> the big story, after the close yesterday, junk. the verdict on the russian credit rating, the first time in a decade that it dips below investment grade. ryan, what has been the reaction in the market. a lot of people saw it coming in the ruble is lower off the back. >> this was widely anticipated

by investors and yet not fully priced in. the ruble is the real story, it fell massively yesterday. s&p had downgraded russia to below investment grade. it's interesting this morning as you see the ruble as weekend over the last hour and many people thought it could be much worse perhaps falling more than 70 to the dollar. you have to wonder, is the central bank in their intervening. they have 379 billion dollars worth of reserves, they spent 132 of them last year and want to keep their powder dry. why is this all happening, we spoke with morris cramer a.k.a. mr. scissorhands as he is sometimes known, the russian reserves are puny in comparison to the obstacles. >> on the one side we have the

fall in oil price and the ruble taking more pain from the last 24 hours and then we have to think about sanctions as well. do you think they will be less inclined to increase sanctions, are other people doing it for them, france has been one country that was more accommodative in its language toward russia recently and yet we spoke with the france finance minister yesterday and he had nothing good to say russia that they basically got themselves in the situation. i don't think we'll get too much sympathy for russia but it is certainly been a bit concerned that this confluence of events plus the sanctions plus the junking was actually too much for the russian economy. and some countries worried they may have pushed russia too far. we did just here for the president of latvia and they hold the rotating president of

the eu and they said there will be more sanctions on thursday and the president of latvia saying we should expect an expansion of the individuals that will be suspect to asset freezing in the european union. it is difficult to know. there are a lot of companies in the eu and we may have to wait until thursday morning. >> let's get the investor perspective. we are joined by lucy mcdonald great to have you with us. this story comes out we probably sit at your terminal and think i saw that coming, but does this act like gloom for you? >> it is a bit of a sideshow the issue we need to keep an ion

is the corporate -- eye on is the corporate debt. is it a surprise? no, it is an ongoing cut. and something from a global equity perspective you need to watch for some downgrades to earnings on the margin. it is not a big part of many companies but consumer companies in europe like the one you mentioned yesterday, on the margin the ruble weakness is helpful than me to see any volatility that comes from it. >> over the last 12 months, when do we start to see that big corporate debt start to hurt? it has not happened in the way people might have expected. and your experience, what is the lag time? >> watch it now i think because

the more weakness you get, the higher the risks. it will continue to be a sort of volatility and slight negativity on the side of the global sector. >> politically is it an embarrassment for vladimir putin or can he spin this to say it is a western front against russia? >> so far it has been outstanding that his approval rating has stayed so high. >> there are not that many companies as an equity investor, that we feel as a sovereign risk to be associated with. >> is it a case of ecb? in terms of what it could mean for other companies? >> the ecb, as far as monetary

stimulus -- yes, the overall impact of that will continue. we have seen how new qe in the u.s. did have an ongoing impact on housing markets. that's what we're expecting in europe and we can see some stirrings of improvement from a low base. you've a little improvement on the macro side and oil prices helping and the interest rate impact which is still supportive and then you have the currency. it looks like it could be a slightly better time. >> after the break we'll talk greece. it is the new prime minister's day on the job.

as we had to the break, here is a picture of the markets, we broke the running games. the ftse 100 up by 1/10 of 1%. pretty much dead flat across the eurozone. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move

." it is the first of full day in office for the greece leaders. the other members of the eurozone are calculating their response to his victory. let's go live to athens, guy johnson is there. how is it developing? >> is turning out to be another interesting day. he was sworn in yesterday and did not put his hand on the bible. the story doing the rounds here is that when he arrived in his new office, they were not there to greet him and there were no official documents and the whole process has been unorthodox. one of the titles in the paper suggests the keys were left under the doormat.

a little bit of humor. we are now waiting for the arrival of the cabinet. jennifer will be the new finance minister but nothing confirmed at this point. we also spoke to mr. gosselin yesterday, he is the head of the eurogroup and he made clear where the eurogroup stands in its relationship degrees. >> these are difficult problems and they will not go away in a short time tough times stick for new governments but their approach may be different and we will talk about how they want to address these problems within the boundaries of what we have agreed within the eurozone. >> that was my colleague speaking yesterday eu arrivals

just beginning to start now. the tone for places like paris are a little bit more friendly. apparently mr. juncker has also invited him to brussels. but the tone coming out of places like germany are quite tough on this new greek administration and we're also getting that from some of the other capitals as well. the belgian finance minister taking a tough tone on this. he was making it very clear that he wants a tough line. >> greece has been the problem for a long time and we now have a new government and permit and's from the former government with respect to public finance and restructuring the economy and we really are quite

insistent that those increments -- agreements are respected. >> waiting for news of the and i think a lot of people would like confirmation of who the finance minister is going to be and who is the person they will be negotiating with. from this new independent greek coalition. i think that is the news that will come out midmorning and the story as we will have four super ministries here. that news on who will be the finance minister is very keenly anticipated in athens. >> keenly anticipated in london as well. still with me is lisa mcdonald, lucy, we have a coalition but we can already see the standoff developing between the finance ministers and the greek government. do you think a compromise can be found? >> it has to be found dozen it

it has to be a big political face-saving on both sides and that is what we will be in during. the will is there because of the desire to stay in. as we have said, this win was not surprising but a "grexit" would be surprising. it may or not be a good thing in the short-term but it is not expected. we do expect some compromise. how will they get there? there'll have to be more relief in the debt and more relief from interest. it has to be done behind closed doors and away from the media until have to work it out. the most important thing is not just greece but what it means to the european object and that is why it is so important.

greece is not enormous and we know it is a -- there are france and italy and many others invested watching to see how the negotiations go. >> it's a big assumption to think this man will not just dig his heels and but what we do know is that when he does dig his heels and a little bit to get leverage, it will create volatility that could spill over to the rest of europe. but you's -- as an equities investor, is that a big buying opportunity? >> i think it could be for the reasons we talked about previously, that underlying economy is beginning to improve and you have the currency and oil prices and you have overall a financial benefit.

there is an improvement coming through and you have even seen that in greece. then if you do get some more valuation opportunity you should fly into it. >> -- there is the casino company which was fine but not a huge smorgasbord of companies that everyone wants to buy. lucy mcdonald, stay with me because after the break we will preview u.k. -- growth figures. ♪

>> welcome back>>. we are set for growth but will it be for spain in 2015. caroline consumer spending seems to be up for this year. >> thank you consumer will be the words uttered. they will be seen to have splashed the cash. we have data showing they have been spending at the fastest rate since 2002. they have been buying computers and food and toys. all helped with the fact that employment is up and wages are

picking up and oil prices are slumping. more disposable cash so households have been spending furiously. it is likely therefore that we are seeing pretty sustained growth. this is the first reading and we get another two to come. we don't find the full amount of data until march 31. in terms of the first reading we are expecting the fourth quarter to achieve 0.6% growth. that is 2% growth the entire of 2014 and consumer spending has been helping offset slightly weak data when it comes to business investment and exports. could we start to see a bit of a shine on exports going forward as 1.4 trillion euros is injected into the economy? >> as i look forward, i look to uncertainty and today marks the 100 day countdown to the u.k.

election, is that the big headline? >> i think you are exactly right, the election on may 7 does mean we start to see consumers and businesses holding off on spending a little bit. we were speaking to the builder earlier today saying they do tend to see the housing market's for a couple months. we suddenly got this coming out from all the key leaders, the conservative party who is of course currently in government. they are saying we promised tax cuts and we have the labour party who they are currently in a with in the polls. -- who they are currently and neck with -- currently neck and neck with in the polls. we have the liberal democrats coming out saying they to want to raise taxes on the wealthiest and you have the u.k. independent party doing very

well and you also have green with about 7% so a very difficult uncertain time and at the moment no one is leading the charge and no one will have an out and out majority. also what about interest rates? will we see a hike? many feel this has been delayed and they have said they are no longer calling for an interest rate hike in that could be put off until september. >> i'm sure it doesn't matter what number comes out, both sides will try to put it aside. lucy, is it largely out of any government's hands with what happens with growth? >> europe is an important part of it and oil is important as well. i think, what is in trade at the

moment is an improvement and the labor market is gradually improving as well. you have a decent backdrop for the current government to be frightened. but the issues that the international investors could be worried about is grexit, and fiscal rectitude in a different government environment and those of the things which will cause volatility and concern. >> before we go to break in 30 seconds brexit or grexit? >> in the short-term focus it will be grexit. >> a quick check on the oil price this morning this as the opec secretary-general said $200 a barrel is a possibility.

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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into the trading day and this is what the equity market is doing. i am looking at the fifth 100 also up in the stoxx 600 about get flat. the estimate for the first -- fourth quarter is estimated at 6%. regardless of what the number is either side will try to politicize it before the

election day in 100 days. >> easyjet is the key player on the stoxx 600 because numbers are looking pretty good. we are seeing sales proceed up easyjet and managing to cut costs as well and that is driving the stock up more than 4%. in the first half we tend to see a loss at the airline companies because they get disruptions and have weather issues but it looks like their losses will be less than last year. their competitor, ryanair also getting a push as well. as we get ever closer to that deal with british airways owner iag. it looks like they've given thumbs up to the offer of 2.55 euros per share.

but this time they are getting limited access to the books to see the numbers for aer lingus. valuing the irish carrier at one point three 6 billion euros. -- 1. 3.36 billion euros. we were speaking to the chief executive earlier and they are saying that we are behind our 2016 financial targets. currency impacts, we heard that from microsoft as well. it will be a big one and there will be some weakening in the market. >> caroline hyde, thank you very much. equities in russia this morning are in focus but they are actually a little higher.

for more, let's get to moscow where we are joined by anna entry in over -- ana andreanova pretty neutral this morning. >> first of all, s&p postponed its decision we expected it january 16 and it was postponed so yesterday still came like a native -- negative surprise, especially where the ruble. but opening this morning the ruble strengthen, trying to compensate what happened yesterday. and the index has not changed much and the rts dollar did move a little bit indicating it is connected to the exchange. >> outside financial markets what does the downgrade mean for russian officials?

is this an embarrassment? >> yesterday, the finance ministers issued a statement saying that it is an excessive specimen which s&p said it was not. they're saying that it doesn't mean that investors will be leaving russia right now. the finance minister saying that companies sometimes find two agencies the downgrade russia. before that, mr. putin was already saying it is not always actually, the president had a meeting yesterday with his cabinet and the central bank and he said that now the focus is on macroeconomic stability and russia has to maintain acceptable levels.

already last year reserves loss like 20%. and inflation is about 11%. the situation is extremely hard. >> extremely hard the economy reporter from bloomberg, thank you for joining us. looking at dollar-ruble below 69 and oil trading a little bit lower at $45 a barrel, wti just under that on the brent contract. the opec secretary-general said oil could trade as high as $200 a barrel. he didn't give a time trying to take a look where oil is trading. it will be a little while before he hit $200 a barrel. joining us now is the president and founder of the group at the former white house adviser, $200

a barrel, your that statement and you think, what is that guy smoking and then you think more about it $200, how far off as that. >> i don't think it is that far off at least in terms of the price level, it will take us several years to get there but what is becoming increasingly clear is we are in this new boom bust phase of oil prices. opec has abdicated its role as the swing producer and the market balancer, what we will relearn is something we have forgot since the 1920's, when the oil market is not being governed by somebody manipulating supply, let's call it what it is, the price of oil tends toward wild gyrations. i think we will get closer to 30 four he hit 200, but after we destroy the supplier we are about to destroy and demand comes back. i wouldn't be surprised by one hundred $40, $150 or $200. >> let's talk about destroying the supply, a total u.s.

production, we can raise the charts. look at the rig count, it has started to fall, is that my leading indicator? >> that and cap ex reductions in the u.s.. employment cuts and so forth the permits are starting to come down for new wells so that is what you are starting to see. we had a two thirds cut in rate counts in texas and it bounced back. the u.s. is flexible which is what is distinctive about u.s. shale oil. it comes on fast and can go off fast as well. but it will be back when the oil price comes back. >> i was told $60 was the line in the sand for u.s. shale and i was told 50 and it drop more in the line in the sand got lower, what is the line in the sand? >> is going lower and border -- lower, the pace and efficiency gains is outpacing the decline rates. shale is becoming more and more

economical. the range is probably between $40 to $90 but we are moving lower and the surprises are coming on the lower side. to your point about supply, since the price of oil started dropping, eia has revised up on shore lower 48 supply growth. as the price has been dropping u.s. supply has been revised up. to your point that there is no sign of a blink. the cuts are likely to start falling in the second half of 2016. >> why did it take so long for the penny to drop, we all have this lovely 2020 vision. i remember people in june thing we have an oversupply problem and we are down to 50, how did we price a barrel of oil so badly for so long. >> i think the anomaly was 2011

to 2014. we have this anomalous low volatility due to tap it gdp growth. not low but tepid. you had her clean in -- herculean supply growth. what changed in the late summer of last year with the second quarter of gdp. ih started putting total oil demand growth at 1.4 last year and the second quarter is down to .6. then the market looked to saudi arabia and said it is time for you guys to do balancing and the saudis and opec said we won't do it. that is what changed, supply weakness that created oversupply and in the market picked up the phone and said time to get to work and opec said, we are not going to swing for you anymore. we need to see shale do some cutting and russia is some

clotting. -- cutting. at that point the market was shocked and that led to the precipitous decline. >> u.s. shale versus opec, a spike within opec you tell me that u.s. shale is very flexible and we know a lot of opec reduction ticket early between saudi's produce at a low price, who will blink first? >> unfortunately it will be someone we don't talk about, the supply of strict oil in the united states. it is about shut in crisis, cash clots. you're looking at $700,000 -- barrels a day of these donkey wells in the southwest -- southwest, the oil prices will keep dropping and if we see any shut-ins there it will be among those guys before it is the shale oil producers or canadians. >> you hear london talk about the reaction in the gulf, how

did they react to this? >> my sense is that the ulf reducers are surprised at how fast the prices have fallen. but the policy has been set for many years, people just were not paying attention. they were saying at the end of last year that we will not play the swing producer role but they were not listened to because it was irrelevant. so what changed his they have been asked and they declined. i think all of us are surprised at how quickly the oil price has fallen but they have doubled down on their hard-line policy and that carries through to the new king. >> final question, i look back to june and the majority of the people in this market got the story very wrong for so what is everyone getting wrong now jacob -- now? >> i think folks are getting

wrong one thing in the short-term and one thing in the long term. in the short-term people are calling bottoms way too soon. they are thinking there it is an hearing uncle, we will start filling up stocks now, ships tanks, bathtubs and thimbles. containment will blow up and then with a stock prices come down much further. the oil price can go back to hundred $40 or $200 because gdp growth is much thirstier and people believe. wade too much optimism on energy policy substitution and so forth. when this world gets back to a healthy gdp growth rate will be that demand will drive our stocks up. >> the president and founder of the refuge and stockroom. -- rapudin stott group. there is the stock -2.67%. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro, 45 minutes into the trading session. energy operations were offset by gains in other divisions, let's

go to hans nichols in berlin for more. what have we learned from the company this morning? >> it is down more than it was two seconds ago when i checked it. we clearly see they have work to do in their health care sector and energy generation sector profits are down almost 4% in the industrial sector which includes power generation down almost 40%. profits did beat estimates and overall revenues were up 5% to around 17 billion euros. this is still a company that had cash flow. here is the statement this morning. >> they did confirm their outlook for 2015, flat organic revenue growth and an eps

increase of 50% and profitability still in the 10 to 11% range. there have been analyst calls and the ceo has been speaking and he says they have seen solutions for the units by may and maybe by may we will get oil and gas picking up. a lot of this has to do with their acquisition, a 6.8 billion euro acquisition. they did that when oil was much higher, and clearly siemansens wants to play in the energy business and they may have overpaid. >> hans nichols, great work and thank you very much for the companies that reported microsoft shares fell in after trading. what got investors worried? here is a lady knows a lot about tech. what is worrying investors overnight? >> it's odd because they beat

analyst expectations, they are pulling in 20 billion dollars and a quarter, more than some countries, why the concern? the analysts called and it seems that they are starting to come about issues, mostly the strong dollar. many companies with big multinationals in the u.s. will have a concern and will be hit by the strength of the dollar when you bring that money home from europe you'll get less bang for your buck. also macro weaknesses. they also had a few one-off things because windows xp ran out, that gave them a bump in their sales. that has come to an and. and now coming up to his anniversary as ceo trying to re-steer this company and move it away from licensing fees, you

and i paying upfront for a new windows license and offer it as a service, but getting slightly less cash coming in. >> fascinating that the federal reserve seems to be tolerating that strong dollar. as the next quarter comes in, i imagine there will be more complaints, for microsoft specifically, what are the bright spots? >> cloud. we heard them say cloud first and mobile first. commercial cloud is winning. and the xbox, it is the best-selling console in the u.s. over the christmas period. xbox really one for them. and the gloomy a phone, record sales -- the lumia phone, record sales outdoing themselves. also office we can get on our

apple now. they are starting to see all of their new products being picked up more. but the big money was the business unit where they sell to companies like us the windows systems and they're starting to see that slow in terms of growth. >> caroline hyde giving us the rap in tech. here is the rap in the equity markets, looking at the ftse 100, the dax up by a quarter of a percent. caroline talking about that stronger dollar, the euro coming off an 11 year low. i had a 1.10 handle early monday morning. we're back after this short break. ♪

>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro, in about 37 minutes we will get a reading of growth in the u.k.. investors keeping a close eye on that. let's bring in jennifer ryan she covers the u.k. economy. good to have you with us. i say that in a downbeat way not because of you but because we are slightly lower at 0.6%,

imagine if prime minister cameron had the election last summer. >> it is a pullback but not a contraction. it is a story of two parts, exporters suffering from the weakness in the euro area but on the other side, the consumers seem to be doing just fine and there was a huge pickup in quarterly retail sales. >> is this pace something that will continue? >> there is a nice bunch of stimulus coming down the pipe you have the ecb printing money and the stimulus from lower oil prices. some of the economists i've spoken to has said i will raise my forecast. >> when i look at the stimulus effect i look at perhaps the new bond buying program in the lower oil price, is or anything you look at? >> there is a downside and that is the uncertainty around an

election. with this one, you don't know how the coalition government might pan out. and that will make a big difference for issues such as a referendum on europe or issues about spending. >> 100 days out, the election providing a lot of uncertainty is it the referendum that could happen after the election providing the most uncertainty. >> one thing that is interesting to note about the uncertainty is the outlook for policy, what you have is really low inflation in the u.k., risks of deflation in the euro areas so the question is what will be the response that, and how that will play out in terms of what rate central banks will hold and what sort of stimulus they will provide. >> i looked down the road and i think about what the bank of england is going to do, where are we after the first rate heart -- rate hike. >> could they really hike with inflation where it is at.

what they will look at is the more medium-term prospect. >> we certainly had some economists push out there guesses, but with this stimulus coming down the pike, other economists have said you don't know how it will play out and so what that might do is give lifted to be inflation that the bank would want to get ahead of. >> thank you for joining us, in about 34 minutes we will get that gdp reading. it is expected to come in at 0.6%. the first rating but it matters and i'm sure everyone will try to politicize that number. as we had to break, let's check on the market, the euro is a little bit higher this morning. 7/10 of 1% higher after dropping to a low below 1.11. there is the euro right now, if you want to talk markets you know where i am. ♪

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>> smp bloomberg why rating agency cut russia to junk. greece's new government is set to name the members of his cabinet this morning. the u.k. elections as of the economy takes center stage and the political debate and we will get the latest growth figures in 30 minutes. ♪ >> you are welcome to "the pulse