. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin and "with all due respect" to pete carroll, we are just going to run this one in. ♪ >> on the show tonight, obama opens his playbook, huckabee gets stacked, and mitt romney runs like a girl. but first, chris christie fumbles.

chris christie of the garden states comes in not first, not second, not third, not even fourth or fifth, he comes in sixth place in likely republican caucusers. for christie, it is bad, and it gets badder, as he has an unfavorable rating of 54%. and it gets badder-er-er, he said this in london on monday. this is about getting your kids vaccinated. >> it is more important what you think as a parent than what you think as a public official. it depends on what the vaccine is what the disease type is, and all the rest, i did not say to give people the option, i am just considering parental concern. >> he walked back a little bit but how did he get on this side in the vaccine discussion? >> the guy is now acting like a politician, that is an answer where he is trying to split the

difference between what science says, ignoring what the medical profession says, and what a group of know-nothing anti-science people believe, and he is trying to have it both ways. that is not chris christie's brand and he is not good at doing that. >> the fact is, part of his problem with iowa voters is that caucaus-goers think he is too moderate, and that is an issue. there is a movement in the country that said we should not other people to get vaccines and parents don't want to get them, and now he is embroiled in that. president obama said this today, and this aired this morning, and he said very clearly that people need to get vaccinated. this is a stumble for him. >> and remember, this is not just the right that believes in

this, there is a crunchy-granola left that believes in this as well. obama is now in the right place when he was in the wrong place in 2008. i know we are going to talk about this in the second block of the show, but my god, that kind of unfavorable rating, i don't know what you can try to do to fix this. >> he spoke at the same event that scott walker spoke at, but he did not move his unfavorable rating. >> not good for him right now, speaking of republicans, mike huckabee performs twice as well as chris christie does in our iowa poll. but wait, pastor huck has something provocative to say. not how he squares his religious belief and how he looks at his gay friends. >> i don't shut people out of my circle or out of my life because of my view, i don't drink alcohol, but gosh, maybe some of my friends do. i don't use profanity, but believe me, a lot of my friends sure do.

some of my friends like classical music and ballet and opera, it is not my cup of tea. >> talk about a social gaffe for mike huckabee, calling homosexuality a lifestyle, is that a win-win, win-lose, or a lose-lose? >> i think he thinks that he could win in blue states or purple states, but i think a lot of people will of react to this like a dog whistle, he is going to offend a lot of people with this. it is a lose-lose, for sure.

>> it is not a win-lose, it is a draw lose. no doubt a lose for the general election. >> that is not an option. >> we have a crowded field with evangelicals, and he still has this gaffe. if he doesn't have his hard-core evangelical credentials he's got nothin'! >> he needs to not use that phrase, and the more he uses language like that, not only is he not going to be appealing to voters, they are going to say he just doesn't have the competence. there is a history of him saying these things. >> i think you just won that argument, i have already given up my position. >> last night, there was a barrage of advertisements for

things like cars, beer, mexican avocados, and glue, and this spot about girl power. talking about how running like a girl and throwing like a girl are good things. the pac that is running for hillary shows hillary's childhood photo, and the use the hashtag, #runlikeagirl. is this a strong argument? >> strong, always strong. i think one of the big mistakes that hillary created in 2008 is she did not embrace this historic mantle, and this time around, democratic nominating voters want a woman to be nominated. it is time in the democratic party. she has to wrap her arms around this, and everything she does is good for her, so especially if that are against the republican field.

>> one challenge is to reintroduce herself in a fresh way, and she has a storehouse of stories about her own life and the life of women that she knows that lays right into this meme. i think she could go up against all of the field of republican pundits, and her opponent is likely to be a male, but this has as much a buzz as any of the other commercials. it is super-powerful and i'm waiting for her to be tapped. >> even if it were a smaller tertiary thing, everything she does, not just to women but to younger women, in social media getting voters who are not within her own demographic makes her seem modern. >> republican say she will not be able to rebuild the obama coalition. >> she will exceed the obama

coalition on women, for sure. >> there is not another woman in the office with this kind of chance. >> remember in 2008 there was a dicussion by howard wolfson of this obama movement, and there was this movement, and she sees this now. she will try to build a movement. >> happy budget day, everyone, and i believe it is that way nationally as well, and the president presented a budget is all of $3.999999999 billion. -- trillion. which is very smart. what do you think put the most pressure on republicans and congress? >> ironically, the thing that puts the most pressure on them are the things that they like, two things, increasing spending on defense and infrastructure.

because what the president needs to do is to get them at the table, and so they are increasing defense spending over the sequester caps, and republicans are going to have to eventually come to terms, and they've got to sit with him and make deals there, and when they do, he has them at the table. >> it is pretty extraordinary, and most of that is on the tax side, the spending side, a lot of it is about security, defense, and that kind of stuff, and it is amazing if we just look at the numbers, it is amazing about the idea that this

is on the conservative spending side. republicans clean that up with a very popular tax thing, it puts republicans in the side on the whole spending thing. >> many people say that this is dead-on-arrival and that this is a political document, no, the white house has a very clear strategy on how to divide and conquer republicans, it may not work, it may not relieve the gridlock, but it is super-smart. >> this political document is better than the previous obama budget. >> we have a chris christie impersonator, but first there is a scott walker boom when we return. ♪

>> joining us now is someone more qualified than anyone on earth to explain what is in our bloomberg politics "des moines register" iowa poll, albert reinhold hunt, jr., we want to start with a horse race now,

the big shocker, the big headline in our poll, scott walker has 60%, ahead of everybody else, whether chris christie is in or out of the field with a very unfavorable lead, he has 12% unfavorable and explain this, he has come from nowhere to the front of the pack. >> well, you know, john, i was at a lunch on sunday with a bunch of huge, heavy hitters and very sharp political minds, and no one mentioned scott walker. this poll was a shock to a lot of people. he is a neighbor, to begin with, and he is a guy who can play in multiple communities, and he -- when mark was out there -- he made a terrific impression at the conservative forum, and this guy has proven that he is a player. he is not a flash in the pan.

to use a baseball analogy, john, he can hit in principal park the home of the iowa cubs, but now let's see if he can hit big-league pitches. i think scott walker is now going to be in that top-tier now for real. >> in terms of fundraising and foreign policy, you said that he came up on this week with martha raddatz yesterday, what you see happen with this? >> right now he is drawing from both sides, and that is a delicate line to walk. i think if he is artful he can do that, secondly when you put him in a debate stage, he is not the most charismatic man that ever lived, and i don't know if that is very determinative, and if i were walker that might

worry me a little bit, but i actually think he is probably going to be a better fundraiser than people think. what walker has been through with those recalls, he had to raise a lot of money. >> including a lot of grassroots e-mails. another big name in the poll that has been getting a lot of attention that did not do so well is jeb bush. he is split on favorable and and unfavorable, favorable, 46%, unfavorable, 43%, and then we asked people, how much would they be impacted by jeb bush's position on immigration? 30% said that would be a deal-killer for them, jeb bush obviously has not made an effort in iowa yet. despite these numbers, do you think he has the potential to be in the top three in iowa, or no? >> i think he needs to have an internal debate in the next couple of months, and i think the bush campaign is trying to figure out if they want to move

forward with this, and if mike murphy were here, and i know that that is a shock to most of us, but he would say, look, he is not another bush, it is jeb but he has that name. this percentage is among republicans, and that is terrible, that is awful. hillary clinton was 84% among democrats. among your own party, you want to at least be in the 60's. >> just to put the exclamation on it, all of these numbers are amongst likely republican caucus attendees. so that is a problem. >> let me ask you one question before i move onto chris christie, back in october when we polled iowa republicans, we had him at a 28% unfavorable and now he is up to a 43% unfavorable, so they like him less. what explains that? >> john, i can't explain that and i don't think they got to know him better because he had not been there, but i think the

bush brand name with republicans conservatives and activists is not very good now. i don't think that name has a very good reputation right on a lot of republicans. they have not been exposed to him really, john. >> back in october, he was not very popular in iowa, 39% favorable, 49% unfavorable, now the favorable has dropped by three points, and the unfavorable has risen to 54%, i don't understand how that me is a good candidacy in iowa. >> that is good news for jeb bush, maybe this will dissuade chris christie, but the only good news for chris christie is that there is only one more person who is just as unpopular in the republican rank and file. that's donald trump.

i don't see how chris christie can compete in iowa, i just don't. i can imagine a bush going out there, he is a very eclectic campaigner, he is very smart and he could turn it around, that i just don't see chris christie going out there. that is always a dangerous limb to go out on. i would be interested to know what you guys think. >> i will make the argument for christie in iowa, he has a very good relationship with the governor, he's worked very hard at there, and if his timing is right, he can exceed expectations out there. if you exceed expectations, you can get a lot done on the ground there. i think he is still a great candidate, and i think when we get on the debate stage, he may be the star. >> my prediction is that ted cruz will be the star on the debate stage, and mark, you are right about that, but you don't have to win, but you have to show, and boy, that is going to be tough.

>> you are right, i think he will compete in iowa, not just because he hired the top campaign manager, but you've got 25%-40% of the vote as an establishment vote, and if scott walker decides to play in the anti-establishment lane, then where does that vote go? >> you have to stay out of chris christie in order to have any shot. >> the last person i want to talk about is mike huckabee. why would he be so well-liked but not do better in the race? >> he is in third place. >> some of it is competition, i think, but if you take the second choice of mitt romney voters, because this poll was taken before mitt romney dropped out, so their second choice would be mike huckabee, i never would have guessed that, he went

up to 13%. he is competitive. but the two guys that won the last couple of iowa caucuses santorum and huckabee, i think santorum will have a tough time getting traction, but i would not be surprised if this poll slightly understates this, he is very popular with the faith community, money will not be a factor there, and i think iowa would be the perfect state for huckabee. >> do think ted cruz or others have a chance of getting iowa away from the evangelicals?

>> i think perry has too many problems, i just can't see that john. cruz is going to be a heck of a performer if he gets in, and no one can command the stage like he can, and everybody hates him in washington, so that is a great advantage in iowa. >> we should say that full details on our poll is on our website, bloomberg.com. anything on the democratic poll results that interests you? >> hillary has increased, but joe biden's favorable votes has raised 10 or 15 point since october, and the only explanation i have is the rising tide of people feeling better about democrats. >> the present numbers have gone up, so maybe joe biden gets the halo effect. >> al, i know we have seen joe biden's favorable percents rise, not as because we like them, but also because he is just such a nice guy.

when we come back, a groundhog a mayor, and a murder. ♪

>> happy groundhog day, everyone. a long, long time ago, "the new york post" dropped a bombshell on gotham city. it was about murder. mayor bill de blasio was implicated in the death of a groundhog after he dropped the animal in the groundhog ceremony last year. to explain the situation to our youngest viewers, we wrote a children's book, and now we decided it is time to share this tale. it is a little bit like "charlotte's web." a web of lies. >> once upon a time on the isle of manhattan, a mayor named bill went to the island of staten.

>> mayor bill wore large gloves to prevent getting hurt, but instead he dropped chuck face first in the dirt. >> after one week he was dead, and poor chuck was dead, but we must keep this quiet, the poor zoo staff said. >> weeks turned to months and they kept a straight face, that the truth finally emerged in the most sensational place. >> bill was astonished as was his posse, and they dealt with in this like a mini benghazi. >> chuck was no chuck, and they replaced him with charlotte, it was she who would pay, she would pay with her life. >> and when we come back, the super bowl ad that you didn't see. ♪

>> we found one that never aired. we are not sure why, but here it is. >> i can tell you, but you will always know who i am. you will always know what i believe and where i stand. i will never learn to give a state of the union or pardon a turkey. i will never learn to fly on air force one or declare war around the world. i will never get to veto a same-sex marriage bill. i couldn't be president because i wore an orange sweater to a football game. >> we believe in protecting what matters most. your ambitions.

>> that is funny. we are live 24/7 on bloomberg.com. >> sayonara.

>> i am pimm fox and this is what i'm taking stock of on monday, february 2, 2015. president obama released his $4 trillion budget. the word of the day is taxes. his proposal would require u.s. companies to pay 19% minimum tax on foreign earnings. they would save more at home or at if approved, the change would affect companies such as apple google, and microsoft. combined they have nearly $92 billion in profits parked outside the united states great greece is parking itself firmly against the euro zone. the newly elected prime minister went hunting for allies today, beginning in cyprus, as germany stands fast on austerity. he ran on an anti-austerity platform.