tv On the Move Bloomberg February 6, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
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is the median amount of jobs created in the u.s. those are three things we are watching this morning. futures off by 26 points. what a week we have had. manus cranny with your market open. >> hey, jon. these equity markets, it is interesting. the debate is interesting as to whether the european central bank overstepped. by declining the greek sovereign bonds. because they are not technically still in the program. that is one of the articles. oil had a second week of gains. volatility at a six-year high. a 7 year high in terms of equity markets. saudi arabia still selling their oil at the cheapest price to asia and 14 years. the danes say it will never
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happen to them. so did the swiss a couple of days before they dropped their cap to the euro. a couple of interesting names that have delivered results. i sat down with the first interview with a new ceo. they say they're keeping their dividends flat for the rest of 2015. they had a policy of growing given sinc -- dividends. we are not backing away from our policy and terms of a stable dividend. capital expenditure down. originally was $20 billion. spending cuts up 30%. and they are sticking to that dividend as being flat. alcatel-lucent on the other side of the coin. their numbers doubles. down in the u.s. demand is healthy. carriers in europe are building out, but there was some upbeat story from the cfo saying that
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the submarine business was up for sale. the stock is down 3.6%. the sugar and sweetness business to open higher. full year profits will be below the guidance they gave us in late 2014. a lot of this is to do with the sweetener business in the united states of america. they have seen pressure there. preessure in europe. i cannot talk long enough to get that to open. keep and eye on the euro-dollar. merkel, hollande and putin. going to putin. it says a lot. which is that it is europe going to putin as opposed to putin coming to europe. >> fantastic work. a little bit of a lower open in london. breaking news from the swiss national bank. swiss january foreign currency
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reserves rise to 498.4 billion swiss francs. the russian and ukrainian currency rising as well. you see a little bit of a move in euro-swiss down. angela merkel and french president françoise hollande are heading to moscow to press vladimir putin for a cease-fire in ukraine. it comes after the pair met with the ukrainian president. ukraine's economy getting pummeled as a result. the currency plunged yesterday after the country devalued its currency in efforts to stave off default and win imf aid. ryan chilcote is in moscow. run ius through things. this trip, how long is this meeting set to last, what time? >> so the german and french leaders arrive later today. there aids are here.
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the talks begin at 1:00 p.m. moscow time 5:00 p.m. the leaders sit down. angela merkel and françoise hollande met with the ukrainian president yesterday for five hours. they say they have a plan that maintains the territorial integrity of ukraine and brings peace. they are coming to moscow to pitch a cease-fire to the russian president as a starting point, but there is deep skepticism. you are well aware i have been chasing these peace talks since they began. we have seen the in minksk, in milan and normandy and even geneva, and none of them have yet to produce lasting peace. there is a sense that this is the last opportunity before we see a real escalation in the violence on the ground. of course, the stakes already
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massive. not just a human toll -- 5000 people killed -- several hundred thousand the united nations saying displaced. ukraine's currency within the last week has lost half of its value. and that is on top of it losing half of its value in 2014. i will tell you some traders telling me the fact the ruvell has strengthened today and little bit of the strength and we saw yesterday is not just down to oil. there is optimism about these talks. we have seen that as well with russian futures. a little bit of optimism but there is also an awful lot of skepticism. >> it is going to be a very busy day. thank you very much, ryan chilcote. let's bring in our guest. a strategist. and the chief investment officer at rest burns. good morning to both of you. let's start with you. putin's pain threshold. how high is it? >> he's a poker player. i think that is what is going on.
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there are a couple of issues -- it is not a common thing to see european leaders trying to do jet set politics. there is an issue where that leaves them relative to the message that the americans are trying to send it i fell for think it is interesting they are sitting around in moscow for the whole day after spending five hours in with p.m. in kiev. then they will spend the whole day waiting around for a one-hour meeting with putin. tit kind obesity wondering, what is this about? >> if you are looking -- it leaves me wondering, what is this about? >> the situation in eastern europe. some people would call it an outright war. what he think the preference is right now -- greece internal politics or foreign policy? >> i think that for me the external policy is more something we should concentrate on. if you are looking longer-term, the relationship between russia and europe is crucial going
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forward, and stability and that relationship is key. in the short term, we are going to have a lot of volatility around the greek situation, but at the end of the day, i think a number of the europeans including the germans and i suspect the british as well, would feel if you cast yourself well, that maybe. >> we will talk about greece later but for this situation, the market reaction isolated. you can talk about ukrainian currency, we can talk about the ruble. this time year -- this time last year, this was an event for the year. >> i think the market is still very -- is very concerned about the possibility of this escalating into becoming a trigg er a flashpoint for further market volatility. i think the market is watching very carefully. is we have got a very interesting situation in the european markets now. we have bond yields that record lows. we have the german and the
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french stock markets absolutely soaring. what is the total gains this year? 10% this year already. some of that is on expectations of -- we have continual sanctions and economic warfare with russia that growth is going to be damaged. the second issue is how much of that stock market gain this yera ar in europe is down to the absolute low level of yields created by the expectation of q.e. distortions and how much does low interest rates fool ass et prices -- pull asset prices higher? but the market will be watching to see what european growth and also what happens in china as drivers of europe. >> to build on that, to bring in russia to the conversation again, the dax that used to be the proxy to trade. you slap that around if
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tensions escalated. you bought into it. what is the story there? you have an 8% pop on european stocks so far this year already. i say the markets to not seem too concerned because we get these gyrations and foreign policy and the dax is not behaving that way anymore. >> distortion, distortion. >> it is fair to say that the q.e. policies of both the japanese central bank and the ecb have driven a trade in equities and that trade is continuing now. i would agree with bill that you are seeing yields push for sovereign debt to very low levels, not something seen in my career before. in certain cases, we're seeing negative yields offered by central banks. but i would say at the end of the day, i think this trade from switching out of bonds into equities will continue
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particularly when you can do the trade -- unilever issues a euro -dominated bond. people will be switching across. >> that will be a story in a couple minutes. breaking news an official with knowledge of the matter. the eu will add 9 entities to the blacklist of ukraine. talk about the worries over sanchez. -- over sanctions. are they anything to worry about when their blacklists, asset freezes? >> sanctions are designed to send strong messages. i'm not sure they get listened to. so there is the issue of how effective are they? the market takes the view ok, if they are sanctions that are just putting you on a backlist -- blacklist, that is not going to have an effect. when we see real sanctions the market goes back to what is the fundamental effect on european economy starting with germany?
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we look at some of the numbers that were better this week that we have seen for a while economics think, no. thing -- signs of life. there's a tick on the heart rate monitor for germany. that could be quashed by a number of factors. >> they are going to stay with me after the break. we will talk about the bond market. they are keen to do that. the pro-government rally after european talks. we talk greece and european fixed income. before he had to the break, let's check in on some of our top stock stores. a big miss on net income, but the company are going to deepen cost cuts. they have also halted dividends. a very different story for two tech companies. twitter shares surging in after-hours trade. but new useress they disappointed. linked-in beating estimates. user growth growing 25%.
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fruitful as the government would like. the ecb is set to allow the greeks $60 million in -- 60 million euros in emergency cash. a decision to provide close to what is 60 billion euros. is that solving anything? >> well, it helps with the banks. it does not necessarily affect the greek government. but this is about giving a little bit of extra breathing room by putting in a limit on what emergency liquidity assistance can provide. remember, in december, they drew 56 billion euros. it is a little bit more breathing room until 3.5 billion for more than december. it highlights the importance of the need for a political agreement between all european officials and the greek government. yesterday in some ways the two
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finance ministers were talking past each other. >> we didn't even agree to disagree from where i'm standing. from where i'm standing, we agreed to enter into deliberations as partners with a join orientation towards european solutions for european problems. >> th keye question is -- what are they negotiating? about a bridge loan, something that can give greece payments that are due later this month? or are they to go shading about keeping greece inside the current bailout program? no clarity on that subject. >> hans nichols, fascinating stuff. i enjoyed that news conference yesterday. we agree to disagree and major not even agree on that. thank you very much. our guests still with us. greece, blah blah.
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then i look at the bottom market. yields to not move. i want to talk about the bond market. what is fascinating to me, nine months ago, we used to look at italian bond yields going south the spanish yields going south and people saying, this is a little bit crazy. now people sit in front of me every morning and rationalize this move here justify it. nobody is questioning it. the big question for both of you -- we have seen the rally in high-grade paper. we have seen it go across the yield. now we are seeing it going into credit. nestle with a negative yield. are you worried that people are rationalizing this now and not in the last 12 months? -- not questioning the huge rally in the last 12 months? >> the question i have is bond markets being very weak. one of the signals of that happening is when all the experts start to rationalize the irrational. that is when the market rule one kicks in.
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that rule is the markets only ambition is inflicted the mx minimum of pain on the maximum amount of people. that is what we are going to happen. we have seen signs of that happening in other bond markets. look at the jgb's, how we are exports acting -- all expecting kitchen sink q.e. yet the effect has been for jgb's to widen. there is no reason to expect a massive selloff, but you end up with them finding a new equilibrium. there are ways to play this, but he do suspect we are right at the top of the government bond markets. one way of knowing that is when people all tell us that it can go tighter. >> i would agree. sadly there are overturns of the tech bubbles. all you need is someone sitting in front of you in the next week saying it's different. i worry that we are driving yields down to a low level. not seen in my career.
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i think at some stage, people are going to wake up and realize the emperor has no clothes. >> jonh has a good point. we have been sitting here for two years saying that bond yields are twooo low. when they move into negative territory, that makes you wonder where we are going. >> my question, to play devil's advocate, growth is low. inflation is nowhere to be seen. that's the rationalization. the other one is a cliché, but the markets -- the jgb market they call it the widow maker for a reason. you're a cio under pressure to get returns. what you going to do? >> as we were talking about at the start, more money is transcending into the equity markets. this bond, proxy bond trade that is something that has been talked about on these programs
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and others over the last month, but that has been growing in momentum. we were talking about switches out of corporate into equity equivalents. so, i think there is more that that is going to go on as people chase yield. >> there are a couple of things we need to watch for, because the jury is out whether it is going to stop -- to stocks or do bonds stay where they are? let's look for the moments like bond yield starting to widen with the jgb's? can do we see similar things happening in the european bond markets. we can get onto america in a moment. we have to look at global growth. if we start to see some of that being reassessed to the upside that's when the market is very much going to buy into the stock story and dump bonds. excitement people turn around and say european growth is going
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to rise from the square root of zero to 0.0001, that is the moment to be concerned. i think the third thing to look at is really good numbers coming out of other countries. that trigger moment could come and not be noticed but yet change the whole sentiment of the market. >> good numbers coming out of another country. we will talk about the u.s. after the break. it is jobs day. these guys could talk about this all day. so could i. up next, jobs day in the usa how strong is the american economy, and do these numbers give you a picture? the estimates -- 230 k. back in two. ♪
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>> welcome back. good morning. i am jonathan ferro from london. it is jobs day in the u.s. the number we are looking at as 230,000. let's bring back in our guests. bill has put a shirt on for the occasion. thank you very much. i'm looking at 23,0,000. the payrolls report has been like it for the last two years. bullish about the u.s. economy, you run away with the topline numbers. you are concerned you talk about participation rates. when this comes out today, what are you looking for? >> we will look at the overall unemployment number which will remain around 5.6%. any number north of 230 in the
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short-term, and equity markets will get excited. if it is because of the likelihood of growth continuing. if it is below that, they will worry about a slowdown in growth, and particularly is it lower because as we were talking the break stronger dollar, is that affecting the economy? is it going to affect earnings? there has been talk from companies about the stronger dollar. >> the big one is for the federal reserve. a guest said to me earlier, the fed seems determined to hike. why is that going to change? >> the fed sent a clear message to the market that they are prepared to do the right thing. we have got bullard is the deliver of that message. at the same time, the fed is not going to do anything to damage the fragile-looking u.s. growth. i think that is the key thing this afternoon is to look at how that number comes out and figure out how much damage the strong dollar is doing to the u.s. economy because let's face
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appeared we have had how many central bank entrance? -- actions. 33 actions. that is currency wars. the loser is going to be the dollar. >> in the few seconds we have left, i will not let you sit on the fence. 230 the estimate. let's have your job guesses. >> 216. >> we miss we stake at work. i'm going for 255. >> dollar bull. there we go. thank you very much for joining us this morning. do not miss bloomberg's coverage of the u.s. jobs data with some of our top guests. mohamed el-erian, former ceo of pimco. up next, a roller coaster week for the oil market. down, then up again. behaving like a penny stock. we will talk fruit after the break. equity marks in london -- we
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i'm jonathan ferro in the city of london. good morning to you. 30 minutes into the trading day. here is a picture of the markets in europe. the swiss a little bit lower, up by 21 points. the dax up by 66 points. it is that time of the morning. it is 8:30. greek stocks are just opening. up .6% after some hefty losses this time yesterday. we did close the day off session low's. he come back higher today. we can talk about greece lall
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day. i want to bring the top corporate stories. >> what a reaction to a modest change in chat. we are talking sweetener and sugar. it is down 12%. the worst performer on the stoxx 600, because profits will be modestly below the range set in september, 2014. that is the profit warning. the stock really plummeting this morning. sweeney market -- that is tough. -=- the sweetener market. we have seen the pressure building on the eu as well. and next year well, we could see many estimates being slashed by analysts. look, it's going to react badly. so what does. dsv a little bit of trucking logistics. nordic region's biggest trucking
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company. it was a mess in terms of estimates. also, the dividend coming in less than expected. another big loser on the stoxx 600. meanwhile, let's look on the bright side. #. a bit of them in a this money. up almost 9%. poundland is adding 2 million customers. 251 stores. they are buying a rival. the key difference -- they are coughing up 55 million pounds for it. this is a company that just sold shares. they could have as many as 1000 stores. currently, they have 600 outlet s. they are up to 851. the market likes it. >> the market definitely likes that acquisition. it has been a look roller coaster week for oil. this morning statoil's results
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missed expectations. the norwegian energy company struggling with a lower price of crude. we spoke to the ceo and he said we could see a low oil price for some time. . take a listen >> short-term, i have to admit i uncertain as to what kind of price environment we will see. we will see a lot of volatility. and we could see a low oil price environment for quite some time. fundamentally, though, i think we are ina a part of the cycle and we will see a rebound at some point. whether there are some structural changes fundamental changes for the longer term that is still too early to say. we do not see any changes in our fundamentals. >> he seems to be as confused as everyone. let's bring clarity into the conversation. the commodity -- a turbulent week. oil markets analyst joining us.
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great to have you with us. we will talk about what this means for oil makers in a moment. i have two charts. one is the ric count. falling to a three-year low. the other is total protection -- production in the u.s. they are very different charts. why? >> yes you are right. you cannot just compare the absolute production level in the u.s. to the current decline. what you have to do is -- see the week on week decline in u.s. oil crude versus the decline in recount. if you look at the adjusted decline in u.s. oil out put that has been stabilizing. it is an indication that the drop in rig count -- predominately in the u.s. will lead to a significant lower growth in u.s. oil production.
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not the absolute production itself but the low growth in oil production. >> if there was one thing that people got wrong it is the tolerance level of so many shale produces. 80 was the bottom line. it was 70, then 60. what is the bottom line? >> to be honest, i think the shale oil producers break even. it is still quite high. it has been reduced because of lower oil prices. as companies such as service companies are obviously expected to charge less. also technology has improved. for even that has brought down the price of shale produces. we're looking at 50 plus dollars. at which you are likely to see a lot of oil companies in the u.s., the highly leveraged companies especially, having issues with cash flow. that is why we see a lot of these companies having issues with production. >> you look at these -- cutting
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capex. statoil cutting spending. from bp to shell from everybody. in the context of this blinking contest between the u.s. and the middle east and opec, doesn't it come down to the fact that these are private companies and they respond to costs? >> absolutely. the ones that blink first have been doing that already i think it is already seen in the u.s. we've seen most of the capxex cuts. let's take a list of $1 billion companies. most of them have made cuts in the u.s. with almost 40% capex cuts announced so far. we are looking at most of the company in non opec linking first. opec can take the lower cost of oil because these are long-term investments. and they can bear the brunt of
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lower oil prices, particularly saudi arabia as we saw from yesterday's news. >> when i look for the price -- this is for the traders out there -- look at a penny stock. it bounces around a lot. can go up 20% on nothing. i'm looking at wti. flying high the one day. what is going on with the price of oil? why is it behaving this way? >> it is extremely high uncertainty in the market. opec-related uncertainty, demand relating uncertainty coming from europe. on top of that, you have got the euro versus the dollar. all these aspects have led to increased volatility in oil markets, which if you look at the money they have gone up to 60%. historic highs. we are looking at high volatility causing the up-and-down, increase in decreases we are seeing in oil
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prices. >> the question i will ask you is when i've asked a few people. this time last year, no one was saying that this was an oversupplied market. we sit here now and everyone says it is. what has changed in terms of supply in the last 12 months? were we wrong then or are things wrong now? >> if you look back at the same time last year, we were slightly an oversupplied market but the slight oversupply was really taken away by the outages or geopolitical risks or premiums attached to it. it was balanced in that aspect but july last year we started seeing increased volumes coming out of u.s. oil production ramping up. in a little bit less disruption. what happened was even though there was destruction in libya the impact of those outages were felt less because it was access oil to take away that impact. >> one final question.
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it is job stay in the u.s. i look to north dakota. something interesting is happening. they are not laying off people in the way many people think they would. they are holding onto them. what is the story? >> you would probably see that happening if prices fall further because -- it's still pumping. you have seen most of the high cost produces in the u.s. scaling back. sooner or later, if prices remain below 50 you will see that happening in that part of the oil producing region of the u.s. >> i had to get a jobs question in their. thank you very much. coming up denmark says it is not switzerland and reaffirms its commitment to the euro. we will talk central-bank policy after the break. ♪
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>> good morning to you. this is "on the move." time for some top stories a bloomberg. angela merkel and french thought hollande head to moscow to press vladimir putin for a cease-fire in the ukraine as violence escalates. the german and french leaders met the ukrainian president yesterday. u.s. secretary of state john carey says america is also working to change russia's behavior. thousands of greeks held a pro-government rally in advance
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for the homecoming of the newly elected leaders after a european talk. that came after a person familiar with the ecb said it would allow the greek central-bank to a provide 59 billion euros in emergency funds. the united states is coming off its best annual jobs growth of 15 years. today we get january. estimates are the world's largest economy probably added more than 230,000 jobs. the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.6%. what does it mean for the fed? nevermind the fed. we want to talk central-bank. denmark switzerland, 2015. set to be the year of easing. denmark sold 16.3 billion kroner last month to preserve the euro peg. 12 central banks, nations eased monetary policy last month. thendenmark keeps going. we spoke to the danish central governor yesterday. this is what he said. >> euro and kroner is very
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close substitutes. so, but of course, if anyone starts having doubts about the peg, we will have an issue. and therefore, our message to the pension industry and to investors at home and abroad is that we will keep to the peg. we will do whatever it takes. there is no limit on our balance sheet and we can go on forever. >> mark gilbert joins us. mark, a little bit of draghi. whatever it takes. it could be thomas jordan 2013. >> that is the lesson what else is he going to say? technically he is right. he can turn on the printing presses, unlimited amount of danish krone. buy foreign exchange, let the foreign-exchange reserves sweel the -- swell. technically, he is correct, but
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he is taking on the market, and the market can stay solvent longer than he can stay rational. >> very true. when i look at the fx reserves and we had data out of the switzerland -- 80% of gdp. a look at denmark at 30% of gdp. these guys have got some space to fight this. >> they have. and switzerland started pegging its currency september, 2011. reserves rose. 77%. ok. that is a lot of money to be spending defending your currency, and it shows how far you have to go. the danish central-bank saying i will do whatever it takes. i hope he is not what it might mean, because it will not just mean expanding your frontal exchange reserves as a percentage of gdp. it also means negative interest rates. deeply negative interest rates. people at mortgage banks, are thinking what are the implications?
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we tell bankers start to think, are we going to have to charge people for deposits? >> that is the most compelling part of the story. not about whether they can keep the peg. whether they are willing, given the domestic risks. what do you think that will become a concern? >> last week. where in the stage -- 2015 the year of interest rate cuts. there is no such thing as a surprise interest-rate cut anyomre. you cannot be surprised -- cut anymjore.ore. >> four cuts this year. these guys keep fighting. >> what is your appetite to keep inflicting that pain on your domestic savers? and potentially to get to the stage with a retail banks say we do not want deposits. the most basic function of domestic banks is so investors have somewhere to put their money.
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not taking bets on the market. >> the flip to side to this it encourages flow. if i'm a bond trader, i'm looking at denmark of thinking, i might be able to make money. every time the go negative, you will keep going lower. can they fight the capital flows? the other point i would race -- this peg predates the euro. there is an agreement with the ecb to tdo something. it is not clear when the ecb has to step in. >> think back, start of the euro project there was a common agreement in exchange rate mechanism that everyone went to fight for everyone else. bank of england lost that game. even with the help of its mates in the exchange rate mechanism. again, the win marcus can take on central banks and win. this is not mean that the
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kroner peg has to go, but you have to have the stomach for the fight. it is a different world. if you look at those deeply negative bond yields, five years all across finland, germany, switzerland denmark, this is not a healthy environment. we are starting to see pension figures from some of the companies. they're soaring. it is mostly mathematical, but there is a lesson there. companies have to backfill. denmark defends its currency in some huge multinational corporation's pension deficit surges. there is a lot of moving parts in this. the bubble always comes back. >> i feel yield on the danish
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two year -6.5%. denmark, the central bank the s&b already in the european bond market buying securities. before the ecb has even started. we were comparing the bond market to the tech bubble. we have not really gotten started, have we? yields in germany could go a lot more negative. >> to go back to the main backdrop -- the greek issue. what is my propensity to hold euros given i do not even know what the membership will be in a months time? probably diminishing and quite weak. that is going to hurt the k roner. they are trying to maintain this balance. if nobody wants to hold euros, your temptation to hold kroner harder and harder to maintain balance. those negative yields, the flows must be immense. >> to wrap things up for
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denmark, does a coming down to willingness not ability? is that what the endgame could be? are we making too much of this fgiven how long this peg has lasted? >> i think the activeness of the danish central-bank tells them they are worried. we do not have to guess. the danish central-bank is telling us we have an issue. that strong verbal intervention is clearly a sign that they are worried. they're nervous and worried. so we do not have to guess whether there is a difficult -- you look at the chart of the swish central-bank reserves up 77% since they started defending. they have to spend a lot of money even to fail at 120, which they have abandoned. so, at some point your willingness becomes your ability, almost, because the tube is empty. that is what the swiss decided. we could keep the printing
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presses but you do you really want your foreign-exchange at 100% of gdp? the central banking handbook has in red letters that is a bad thing. at some point, willingness does become ability. >> mark gilbert. you can find his stories online. you can follow him on twitter. for now, quick check in on greek equities. equities a little bit higher this morning, up .7%. this time yesterday, it was pretty blue. maybe the market likes the idea of greece having a bridging program. that is the recommendation from the greek finance minister. we will wrap up the week of jia giannis on his european tour. ♪
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>> welcome back. i'm jonathan ferro live from the city of london. it is -- has all been about one man -- the man in the spotlight. in the past, he referred to the greek bailout as fiscal waterboarding. within days of his appointment he announced it that he rejected the troika commission and would not cooperate. this is what yanis says. he likened greece to thea drug
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addict. the nation must go cold turkey he said. the next day he met with george austin on and despite the controversial outfit, the more optimistic tone prevailed. the headline --greece backed down on the issue of a debt bailout. the next a he heads to rome. he says that we will use what every financial instrument necessary to leessen greek debt. then he headed to germany and frankfurt. he met with mario draghi and he called himself the finance minister to a bankrupt major. minutes later, the ecb restricted greece's access to liquidity. and finished up in berlin yesterday where he met his counterpart, the german finance minister pay he said we agree to disagree. seconds later, they did not even agree on that. with that, back to greece he flew welcomed by a
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pro-government rally. it has been quite out a week. many shirts. guy johnson is keen to talk about the outfits. it has been a fascinating week. >> ballack, blue, black, black blue. is there a message in the sh irts? he wore a blue one for one. he was channeling the happy mondays when he walked down downing street. >> this is a highly intelligent man playing a clever game. >> he looks more like a poker player. >> he does. >> it's been -- he's going to wake up on sunday morning and have to do laundry and think about what happens next. >> the big story. >> we will talk about rush appeared we will talk about men's fashion, funnily enough. fashion is a big part of "the
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>> merkel and hollande push for peace in ukraine >> greece's leaders return home to consider their options after failing to find agreement with germany and the ecb on a debt restructuring p lan. >> denmark's central-bank cuts rates to defend the kroner. abandoning the country's euro peg is " unthinkable." >> we have the intention to keep to a peg. and we will do whatever it takes to do it. ♪
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