>> showdown. grace meets its creditors in brussels. meaning in minsk. chancellor merkel and president hollande travel to belarus today for peace talks. banking on private wealth. we speak to the ceo of italy's second-largest bank, on his plans for growth and whether he's concerned about and we hear from sergio marchionne. welcome to "the pulse."

i'm francine lacqua. a crossroads for europe. greece and ukraine face critical meetings that will determine their path for the next couple months. let's get straight to our reporter on the ground. the greek prime minister, alexis tsipras, won a vote of congress -- a vote of confidence for his anti-austerity program. now, the tougher task of convincing creditors to a new agreement. germany is showing no sign of backing down from its opposition to the new deal. for more, we are joined by hans nichols. you will be going to brussels later today. what can we expect from the meeting? >> we are going to get the formal presentation from yanis varoufakis on what he wants in terms of a bridge loan. what we expect is 8 billion in increase in the t-bills, and an additional 1.9 billion.

let me read you some headlines from the greek papers this morning. one, high taxes will bring recession. another, new taxes for real estate and income. the eurogroup will either point to agreement or a rupture. at the same time, the mass circulation here, they have a full-page spread of everything they've said over the last two or three years morning against, and warning that there could be a greek exit from the eurozone. you have schaeuble who hasn't changed his rhetoric at all. he's very clear yesterday, he talked about, there would be no way back. he said it would be over if greece doesn't want its final. it will be in brussels. we will get those readings. >> are there also signs that greece will look to russia if

they fail to make a deal in brussels? >> we have the defense minister, he is a part of the minority party, he says they've been contacted by russia and china and they look to them. at the same time, the foreign minister has meetings in russia today with his russian counterpart. it is opening up this prospect that greece has a plan b and that could mean getting some sort of bridge financing either from russia or in some accounts, china. francine? >> thank you so much, hans nichols and berlin. he will be covering that story and brussels today and tomorrow morning. french, german, and ukrainian leaders are meeting in belarus today to discuss ukraine. the ukrainian president has confirmed that he will be attending. chancellor merkel and president hollande month ago, according to officials.

for more, let's bring in ryan chilcote. what are we expecting at the meeting? >> there's going to be a meeting. >> that's a good starting point. >> it is all or nothing. if one goes, they all have to go. the french and german leaders are they going to go? it sounds like they are going to go. it sounds like it is on. things have been all over the place. >> who are we expecting? a rushing go? >> petro poroshenko, vladimir putin angela merkel, and francois hollande. the so-called enormity format. they all sat down on d-day in normandy in another set of negotiations. the french and germans are there to hash out a deal between the russians and ukrainians. the sticking point in terms of a cease-fire is how much autonomy these regions actually get.

>> we had angela merkel and francois hollande traveling to russia over the weekend. if they don't achieve anything there, what are the chances today? >> they are not really telling us. i think they want to achieve a deal and they think the minutia of the progress is something that is not good to share. but the way they've characterized their diplomatic activity, hollande and merkel, is they don't think there is going to be a deal. they would like there to be a deal, but neither of them want to be remembered as leaders who didn't do their utmost to achieve a deal. they give these talks a last chance effort before larger warfare breaks out. >> what is the latest on the ukrainian economy? they are still looking for foreign aid. >> we just heard from the ukrainian finance minister. she said that she's going to be

talking to creditors after negotiations with the imf are completed, perhaps in march. she also said she thought the ukrainian currency had overshot the mark when it comes to depreciation. down 36% just in the last nine days. ukrainian bonds, people are expecting a big haircut here. the yield right now is about 39.5%. part and parcel of ukraine getting the $15 billion it says it needs this year in additional finance from the imf is sorting out its issues with russia. lagarde has been clear that the if there is a war going on, it is difficult for the imf to give money. the imf is trying to get other countries to co-invest. in addition to that the

ukrainians of the russians about $3 billion. that's how much the russians were able to give ukraine before viktor yanukovych fled kiev. now, they are saying, you've got to pay that money back. that would also have to be part of an overall settlement. the private creditors want to make sure -- >> they are first. >> usually, the imf gets to be first. >> ryan chilcote with the latest on possible peace talks. later, we will be talking to carlo messina. we will be talking earnings, the banking sector, and what low interest means for his business. also, the chrysler ceo says a ferrari ipo could be sold faster than he could eat a bagel. that brings us to today's twitter question. is marchionne right to be so confident about a ferrari ipo? i will be right back. ♪

>> welcome back to "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. back to our top story, it is crunch time for greece in brussels today. joining us now, bank of america merrill lynch head of g 10 fx strategy. thank you so much for joining us.

when we talk about greece, it seems the markets are worried sometimes, not that much. there's a general consensus that because we are dealing with politics, they'll find a way. is that a wrong way to analyze the situation? >> icing -- i think the market has seen greece before. the market will say, it is going to be a surge in the coming months. i don't think the market is taking this as seriously as it should. also, the russia situation is quite complicated. the cause of circumstances which are slightly different, the market is a little less worried. although it probably should be more worried, we think. >> jock seems to be intimating that the market is affected by what is happening around them. the new government in greece are radicals. they've made that very clear. they say one thing and now they

are almost saying, if we don't get a deal with europe, we will go to russia. is that a misinterpretation, negotiation tactics, or something real? >> they have been more confrontational than anyone expected. they are discussing the roadmap for negotiations. they are negotiating how to start negotiations. this might be a negotiating tactic. eventually, they will compromise. the russia card is something that i think they might use at the very end. hopefully, they will not go there. >> do you agree? >> it feels a bit cyprus. when we talk about looking for help elsewhere, you enter a territory in europe which is probably not welcome if there was a search for financial help in russia given the situation there. i agree that this is probably not the time to use that card

early on. it has already been talked about in the press and so on. i think this makes it more complicated. europe has always compromised, but the format in the way the greek government is communicating is very different. that i think is going to be the first reality check tonight. we need to tone down and start on a level playing field. that is going to be the first test. >> is it to ginger is? -- too dangerous? the germans are trying to involve russia in another way. what are the chances that because of miscommunication the greeks accidentally leave the eurozone? >> the convergence toward the euro exit, the probability on the back of the draghi call, has been questioned and should be questioned.

an accident can happen. it is very clear. everything is going to be deployed to prevent an accident. it is more likely that it doesn't happen than the contrary. but when you look at the positions for europe and the greek position, it is one of the largest gaps we've seen in any negotiation since the beginning of the crisis. it is the first time we've had a democratically elected government with an economic agenda that is -- >> accidentally leaving the eurozone, 35% chance, 40% chance? why are the markets not more worried? >> i think it is hard to come up with an estimate. we still believe this is a very small probability event. although the government has been confrontational, they have saved some room for compromise. the government has said they would like to implement

structural reforms. we remain optimistic that the worst will be avoided. basically, as long as the negotiations proceed, avoid an accident. we will be concerned if they are not talking to each other. >> and that's a possibility? i find it difficult because you have so many ministers saying things that are so un-diplomatic , if you are sitting in france or in germany, there's a point where you may just get fed up. >> i think by the end of february they need to agree on their roadmap of discussions. by early may, they need to have a deal. the maturity schedule starting in june is very heavy. >> it has been three years of trying to rebuild the monetary union and bring it to some form of stability. we've seen in a space of one

month that the debate has come back. the reason is probably because there are two different audiences. that creates this enormous difficulty of coordination within europe. so the markets are obviously looking at this and saying, what is the probability of exit? the mechanism is very different. [indiscernible] it is not a financial markets contagion. it is more political risk. >> we have a lot of people saying this may be another lehman moment. >> how do you model that? >> i don't think we can model it. [indiscernible]

you will have a breakdown in negotiations. that brings you to a new level of threat which probably will involve the ecb reducing exposure to greece. that is the first level of heightened uncertainty you will get. is there going to be a contagion if there is a greek exit? i think the debate is divided. the reason is because people say, we've seen it before. i don't agree with that. the implication of any country exiting, maybe not from a financial standpoint immediately -- they would probably respond. but the medium-term implications are strongly negative. i cannot believe there wouldn't be -- >> do you agree with that? does this mean that germany has to do everything in their power

to keep the union together? >> i agree with his view. when you look at a contagion it is hard to see how it will happen. if denmark today is under pressure because the ecb removed the floor, we can imagine what will happen in a greg's it -- a grexit scenario. they need to respect the rules. the rules are there on how to address a crisis in the eurozone. they have to make sure they don't keep throwing bad money after bad money. this will allow a more gradual fiscal consolidation path in greece. >> will we get more reforms in greece when the officials are saying, look at italy, they are just as bad as us? again, not helpful. >> this is a face-saving exercise on both sides. probably the red lines that have

been set on both sides are too far away. they need to be more orange. it is possible that you find some compromise. the two thirds-one third story is interesting. you might have some intervention of non-forgot organizations. that might have less of a negative stigma. i think there are elements of answers there. we are only at the beginning. we've got two weeks. >> not a little bit shorter? it seems the markets are focusing on the next two or three days. >> it would be very hard to imagine tonight or tomorrow morning there is some form of consensus that comes out and everyone happily agreeing on matters. i think we are at the very early stages. it is going to continue probably escalating. >> i was going to ask about

that. escalating in the sense that they need to not get further apart? how important is it now that both sides temper expectations a little bit? with every insult or injury, the risk is bigger. we only have two weeks. >> if there is no agreement, there is a consent that they might start putting pressure. by that time, they need to be on the roadmap. if they start discussing actual policies, it will be a very long and difficult discussion. >> what is the impact on fx? if you look at the u.k. the economy is not doing as well as people were expecting. the u.s. may be near interest rate rises. what is your favorite play? >> the greek suggestion has not affected the euro markets. in the last two weeks, the euro

has remained relatively well supported. we believe there will be more volatility looking forward. we like selling yen downside. these are traits that can do well in this volatile environment. >> on the euro, we think it is down on the dollar and any escalation of the situation in greece will probably push the euro lower. this current structure is the cyclical development in the u.s. that may be preventing the euro from falling rapidly. ecb lawmakers have called down the pace of depreciation. g-20 as well, maybe sending some small signals about the fx front. the trend to us is still down in

terms of the euro versus the dollar. >> we have to mention russia a little bit. economists have to be political analysts. how difficult is it to analyze the situation where it is one man and his decision, and what does it mean? how much do you worry about russian implications on the euro zone economy and how much do you worry about greece? >> actually, things are happening faster. there are too many things driving the market. at the same time, the ecb has ended qe. russia is a huge risk if things escalate, no doubt. we believe that volatility is here to stay. historically, low but much higher than last year. the fed is not there with qe to bush volatility down. this is a preview in terms of what we see in fx markets.

>> looking at the linkage between russia and western europe, i think the initial view a year ago was, small market share in terms of trade, so who cares? the reality is that the collapse in exports from europe to russia and ukraine, down 40% 45%, down 25% to russia, starts being meaningful. we shaved about 20 basis points out of gdp last year. it is a large number. the question is, in the last leg of the crisis in russia which has been the combination of oil and fx, how much weaker domestic demand are we going to get and how much of that is going to feed back into europe? we are worried that we get in a run negative leg in terms of the russia weakness. we are now seeing it filtering through as well into the neighboring countries.

that remains a significant problem. ukraine inflation also very difficult in terms of financial supports. the amounts keep on rising because of the situation deteriorating. >> thank you so much for all that. jacques cailloux and athanasios vamvakids. coming up samsung's three-sided phone. is the company planning to unveil its new secret weapon? ♪

>> coming up, exclusive interview with carlo messina. we talk earnings and of course banking. ♪

>> welcome back to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters here in london. here are bloomberg's top headlines. the greek prime minister won a parliamentary vote of confidence for his anti-austerity program last night. greece now faces the challenge of making a deal with its creditors in brussels today. germany's finance minister said there are no plans to discuss a new arrangement or give greece more time. the eu commissioner told bloomberg there is no clear way forward. >> there is no plan on the

table. ideas, yes. but not a plan. europe once a plan. we must build a plan for greece in the eurozone. we will see what other technical issues have to be dealt with. first of all, we've got to speak, to talk to each other. >> president obama has spoken by phone with the russian president and the ukrainian president as representatives from russia and ukraine prepare to face each other at peace talks in minsk. the german chancellor and french president may also attend the meeting which aims to end violence in eastern ukraine. if the talks fail, russia could face fresh sanctions. obama said on monday that he hasn't ruled out providing

weapons to ukraine. a record sale for english football. the chief executive announced that sky will take over broadcast matches from england's top division. that is a 70% increase over what they paid for the last cycle. sky will broadcast 126 games in the u.k. starting in the 2016-2017 season while bt will show 42 matches. italy's second-largest bank increased its annual dividend to seven cents a share from five cents. joining us now is carlo messina for a bloomberg exclusive interview. thank you so much for coming in. yesterday, you had some pretty good results. a lot of analysts were saying you were the strongest bank in italy. what does it mean for the year ahead and profitability overall? >> we are the strongest bank not

only in italy but also in europe. sorry, just to be clear. we are working in order to have a benchmark in europe and we are over-delivering on the business plan. the business plan is based on growth. we are sharing the benefits with all stakeholders all shareholders, increasing dividends. the main engine is growth. we are growing revenues and it is the highest level of growth compared with european peers. it is the asset management area within the company. we think that we can over-deliver. >> i spoke to a lot of analysts who were mentioning you in the italian context. when you look at the european context, you think a lot of analysts put you as an italian bank.

you still think there is an italian discount. you are still considered and wrongly so, as an italian bank. >> that's a good point, because we are considered a very strong bank by the analysts and investors. the majority of my shareholders now are international. especially usa investors are considering intesa sanpaolo as a machine, a very good company that can give sustainable earnings. on the other side, we are 80% concentrated in italy. we are working with families and private bankers, and you know that we are benefiting from the country. we can be considered as one of the real leading players in europe in banking. if you see our revenue growth and you compare us with french

spanish, we have a revenue growth higher than competitors. it is due to the fact that we are working with our country. >> you've made no secret of the fact that you don't want to be part of a banking consolidation but you want to buy private wealth. what are you looking at? [indiscernible] is it u.k., are you interested in switzerland? >> the real point is that names are concentrated in switzerland, u.k., and probably asia, but it is not easy for an italian bank to buy an asian wealth management company. what they need to make the acquisition is to have a flotation of my private banking division. it is the only way to pay at the same amount, so you can use

shares to exchange with other competitors. the real target for 2015 is to work in this wealth management area. >> this is what we talked about in davoes.s. you were looking at the ipo. would it be this year? >> i am looking first to create an holding in the sector. the second could be the flotation. flotation would be the step that would be in line with the possibility of making acquisitions. i will evaluate, considering possible alternative targets. not theoretical. >> you have to buy something. [laughter] >> you need to make a deal. >> in reality, we talked about

switzerland in the past, but if you look at what happened with the swiss national bank, it seems you would be paying through the roof. >> there are a lot of possibilities. it is to find a good opportunity and have a good relation with the management of the company that you consider for the acquisition. at the end, management is very important. if you have a good management team, very smart so i'm increasing the operation outside of italy through this management team because i'm opening a branch in london to serve italian people. i want to work with foreign people. i need a brand because the italian brand is not easy to work with the rich people outside of italy. >> give me a sense of what you do with your asset management. would that also be considered an ipo? >> all forms of management could

be considered for ipo. there is a trend of regulations that can improve your attitude to make flotation. it is better not to maintain the full control of the 100% control -- this could be another area in which i think we will see that flotation in combination with other asset managers. it is something -- 2015 will be the delivery of the plan. [indiscernible] >> are you not -- you are looking at ipo's, but this is a very dangerous year because of the volatility we are seeing. that is because of russia greece, the fed thinking of raising interest rates. how concerned are you that 2015 is going to remain very volatile? >> it is volatile for markets

but it is a clear year of recovery for italy. after 40 years of negative gdp, italy will have growth in gdp. italy is export-oriented. now, we are seeing clear signals of recovery in our country. it is growth by definition. it is the oil price [indiscernible] all of the engines for growth will allow italy to become the real surprise for europe. in any case, you can have some volatile position for us but you could have an engine for growth. we are ready to work not only on wealth management, but also on growth and provision. so i'm very positive. >> i don't know if italy will be one of the best countries.

i was looking at the numbers -- [indiscernible] >> i'm really proud to be italian. other countries are presumed to be better than italy. >> give me a sense of how concerned you are about a lehman-like affect if greece were to have a referendum on europe but especially the banking system? this transmission system is working better than it used to. how concerned are you that this will spill over? >> the point of lehman is based on leverage that was really the weak point of the international banks, and it remains the weak point of international banks. as i told you, in my opinion leverage is something which must work now, not in 2019. there are a lot of european banks that are within 2% and 4% of leverage.

we are at 7%. it is a key driver in which the economy will recover. this could be a problem. moving to greece greece in my view is only a minor problem. i don't know if all the others are things that -- i consider it a point of negotiation. politicians in europe have not demonstrated to be in a condition to remain in a difficult crisis. at the end, the results will be a postponement of maturity. they will find an agreement. there will be volatility for another week, two weeks, and this could be sold in a positive way. >> thank you so much. some analysts say this is a disaster. the markets, for the moment -- >> [indiscernible]

if i have to deal with 3% of the total debt of the eurozone, it would not become the measure point for the eurozone. easy to say. >> that is a whole other conversation. thank you so much for joining us, carlo messina. coming up, premier league payday. sky nbt pay a record for tv rights to england's top football league. we will break down the deal after the break. ♪

>> welcome back to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's london headquarters. apple set a new corporate record on tuesday. before the bell rang, the company announced that it is investing $850 million in a new solar arm in california. exxon has a market cap of $385 billion. apple has been growing in value since the release of the iphone 6. emirates airlines has a simple message for competitors. improve your service. speaking to bloomberg, sheikh a hmed said airlines in the u.s. should focus on providing a

better offering. >> offer the best to the passenger and people will fly you. [inaudible] >> now, the world's third-biggest brewer heineken said beer volumes in 2015 will grow at a slower pace because of dampened demand. profits came in just above analyst estimates at 1.7 6 billion euros area -- euros. heineken's ceo explained why europe remained a challenge. >> europe will remain a difficult market to operate. it is not naturally a growing market because it doesn't benefit from fantastic traffic but it is a big contributor to our business, and we stay committed for market share and revenue growth. >> football mad. not just the british public, but broadcasters after sky and bt's

rivalry the show live matches pushed premier league writes to a record high. >> the value that is being delivered for these three seasons following the open and heavily scrutinized sales process will be 5.136 billion pounds. >> here with more is caroline hyde. amazing amount, but do the markets think that sky overpaid? >> if you look at share reaction, yes. we've got bt higher today because they paid 30% more. sky 883% more. the shares -- sky paid 83% more. they are spending 4 billion pounds. they are spending 11 million per

game. that is pretty phenomenal overall. we see a bit of a reaction. >> it seems -- can they off or not to get it, is the question? >> that is exactly right. they thought they couldn't afford not to have it. sky brags about phenomenal homegrown production that they make elsewhere. they are signing deals with o2 to become a mobile company. they are also a broadband company. the top paying subscribers are the sports fanatics. the u.k. has the most popular sport, football. this is why they are willing to spend the big rocks -- big buc ks. before this kicked off, you had bank of america merrill lynch saying they could lose 15% of their biggest paying subscribers. they could lose half their

customers if we saw bt have a majority. adding to the fear that bt could go big, you have the fear that new entrants saying they might like a bit of match action as well. when you are handing in your envelope, it is a game of game theory as to work out what price you should put in there to make sure you held the top spot. they are still at the top of the leaderboard. for 4 billion pounds, you could buy -- >> you really could. as a viewer, do you get hurt because they spend less on production now that they forked out so much money? >> here is the key question. the chief executive of sky said, i understand that is one third of one billion more than you were expecting, but we are going to swallow it. francine, one third of one billion per year in cost efficiency?

this is cuts in the company they have to make. where are they going to make it? are they going to have less people on the end of the line? or is it actually that they have to force the payment on to the sky users. is the sky sports subscriber going to have to pay more for this? the top packages also, there is an investigation going as to whether the u.k. should be showing more live matches. and indeed whether they should be charging this amount. >> caroline, thank you so much. amazing, amazing figure. caroline hyde with the latest on the english premier league. we will bring you live pictures from moscow, sergei lavrov and his greek counterpart. we will have plenty more on this

after this very short break. ♪

>> welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and radio. now, despite oil's recent rally the biggest independent oil traders say that crude could resume a slump. the vitol ceo spoke with

jonathan ferro and said there is no chance of u.s. oil slowing. >> i'm pretty sure that efficiencies are coming every day and technology is moving very fast. we sense that oil production in the u.s. for 2015 is going to go up. obviously, what is getting cut now is future investment, future projects. will they be big or in the case of shale, relatively small? i don't think we know how it is all going to shake out. obviously, it is very different from each part of the various shale baize ins. the other thing we are not sure about is what is going to be the response in demand. we all talk about supply, but not demand.

whether economic growth is more important than demand demand was very poor last year. if demand doesn't pick up, i suspect they might find that things aren't quite as rosie. >> jonathan ferro joins us now. the problem with the oil story is that analysts get it right, between $20 and $200. >> we are all oil experts, aren't we? i started the conversation with him in june 2014 and said, what happened? the consensus back in june 2014 was this range of $110, $115 on brent. every time the oil price dropped 10%, 15%, the consensus on the line in the shan for u.s. shale production came down with it. i had people say, $70, $60, $50. we still don't know what the threshold is for shale.

he's looking at total u.s. production and saying, where we are right now, supply is still here. it is not coming off. >> this may be a political decision. this may be a little bit like supermarket price wars. market share is more important than profitability if you want to squeeze your opponent out. >> it has been pitched as versus u.s. shale. it is more nuanced than that. he didn't subscribe much to that argument. to him, people spend the money, they've gone into the ground that oil is going to be produced. they are in. it is going to come out of the ground. he is saying, look at the situation now. people will cut spending. that will impact prices. but right here, right now, we are here to stay where we are for a little longer. oversupply is going to weigh on prices. >> they may go lower. thank you so much. for our viewers, a second hour of "the pulse" is coming up.

we have that news conference from lavrov, the foreign minister of russia and his greek counterpart. we will also be talking about greece. ♪

>> showdown, greece meets its creditors as germany talks tough. meeting in minsk, peace talks in belarus. and we hear about the ferrari i.p.o. that could be sold quick. >> good morning to our viewers in europe. good evening to those in asia. welcome to those just waking up in the united states. this is "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. this is a snapshot of the financial markets. we've seen quite a lot of

volatility over the last couple of days. in terms of the markets today, they seem more flat. the cac 40 down to .5%, basically investors awaiting this greek debt talk. does it mean they're a little bit more optimistic? yes, it seems that they're a little bit more optimistic that greece can reach an agreement on new bailout terms with its euro creditors, but markets are volatile. they turn very quickly. keep an eye on that. mid week crossroads for europe. greece and ukraine face critical meetings that will determine their path for the next couple of months. the greek prime minister won a vote of confidence for his anti-austerity program. now greece faces the tougher task of convincing its european creditors to agree on a new debt arrangement at an emergency meeting in brussels today. germany is showing no signs of backing down. for more, let's go to athens. what can we actually expect from the meeting?

>> what we can expect for sure is a final resolution of this issue today. both sides have tamped down of expectations. the reason why we've had this extraordinary euro zpwrupe because there's so much work to bring the two sides together. the public has been very tough on both sides. greece is saying we're not backing down on our austerity pledges, but it's one thing to make both commitments in a parliament session to address greece. and they said in their comments yesterday, they want to try to get binding commitments from greece. whatever comes up will not be a final solution, but will be if we get the shache a final solution. >> at the same time, there are

signs that seem to be indicating that greece will look to russia if they fail to make a deal in brussels. is that real or just a threat? >> well, ever since the start of this crisis, there have been a lot of people in greece at various stages that will affect russia, china, whatever, and immediately after the election are where these rumors start to circulate. the greerks the night -- the russians denied there was any request for such a loan. they raised it yesterday. yesterday the defense minister mentioned it, but he was quite nonspecific. he's not somebody that should be involved in economic policies. there's absolutely nothing concrete along these lines. >> sorry go ahead, marcus.

>> yes, i mean, it's not something that the government -- that the financial decision makers have. >> marcus thank you so much. joining us to make sense of this greek uncertainty is our international c.e.o. andrew wilson. great to have you on the program. try to make sense of this. actually greek stocks are down but overall they were down and it's politics, they'll find a deal. they're very hard to make a deal. both signs are more entrenched, not lessen trenched. we've seen a lot of volatility in greek stocks. they were up 8%, down 3% this morning. we're seeing bond yields moving by 50 to 100 basis points each day and again on sentiment. that's very contained in greece. if you look at what happened

toity scomplee spain, if you take them as programmers it of concern around contagion, those are only 15 to 20 basis points wider. despite what's happening in greece and the uncertainty around that situation, markets are taking a pretty calm view on the rest of europe and frankly, we think that's down to the e.c.b. and the q.e. program that begins next month. at this stage, it is very contained to greece. >> too contained. does it mean the markets don't understand? since the start of the european crisis, which i would now qualify as another leg, not starting a new one, we've never had two sides that have been further apart actually than the german and it is greeks right now. so the chance of an accidental leaving of greece i guess have never been higher. >> i think the sum probability of an accident leaving but i think it still remains pretty low, and we shouldn't forget the greek population has over 70% and still want to be part of the eurozone. fundamentally, the greek population want to be part of it and a party, they're just

trying to negotiate better terms. this is not going to be resolved today, despite the meetings, probably not tomorrow or next week. this is going to rumble along as both sides try to find some sort of compromise and i think ultimately that's where we're likely to end up, but there is risks around it, and i think that's what we're using being priced into greek bonds. >> is it a lehman brother-like frisk? >> i think we'd all like to refer back to lehman. again, that seems unlikely. that was clearly a bigger surprise. we're very focused on it, and i think the policy actions the e.c.b. has taken around the remainder of the eurozone provide a pretty good buffer. you don't know how that plays out in the terms and conditions but i don't think it's -- it's not a near-term thing. despite the focus and volatility, it's a much bigger decision. we certainly think if you need to get to that point there will be many more stages to

this particularly around the referendum. it's not so clear they have a mandate for greece to leave the euro. >> but if they have a mandate which is anti-aurs at the time, it's not going to be difficult to do the reforms. europe is going to say no way. they can survive the 28th of february the stay that is -- the spector for the greek economy, is that real, or can they give themselves a couple more months? >> it's hard to put a time frame on it, because we're not sure what tax revenues have been doing over the course of the last month or so, but we've been hearing those have fallen away some, so there's no clear line in the sand to say this date they're going run out of money. we think it's probably going to be another month to two months, and a lot can happen in those

time. there's those negotiations you talked about, increasing bill issuance. we'll see how those things play out so i don't think we're going to hit any definitive date and say, oh, this is the problem, i think we're watching closely what is happening to greek banks. we've seen a pretty big out flow out of that prior to the election, somewhere in the region of 13 to 15 billion euro have come out, although what we hear more recently is those have stopped. those are all signs this situation is escalating or remaining calm and people will be a compromise. i think it's a matter of watching those developments rather than saying, ok, this date, if it doesn't get resolved, this will continue. >> i know we talked about it last week, and then it went away. if you look at what happened is there a chance this would actually happen in greece? >> if we get to the point of capital control, then it's

deteriorating, and it's why i reference what's happening on the greek banks. we saw those outflows that have slowed. if that's the case then i think it's unlikely. if we get to the point of capital control, we have ratcheted up another level. we still don't think that is likely. we're going to watch developments really closely. >> you have greece and you have the kind of implication for the eurozone, and i guess you're watching spain. you have the u.k. elections, and then you have the kind of mess in usual-ukraine. where do you find value? >> there's a lot of political elements going on here, and it makes it hard i think from an investor point of view to sort of work out what things look cheap and what looks rich in the context of that political risk. we're still looking to the u.s., places like the high-yield market which has been hurt by the oil and expectations of higher dwaults. it looks relatively immune from the european situation. we'll no doubt talk about oil at some point, but to me

that's an area where you're seeing some value that will be less impacted by a lot of these political discussions. >> on oil, how concerned are you that this has now run out of hand? we were saying if it stabilizes, then this is going to be a nice little boost to world growth. now it seems that it's even more difficult to predict where the price of oil is going, because you're not sure who's playing what. we don't even know -- at what point shell gas becomes unviable anymore. is that a fair comment? >> we still need to go back to the point where we need to see stability. maybe we're seeing a bottom. it would be very early to call that, but maybe we've seen that but certainly seeing more stability around the $50 mark. we're moving up and down a few percent, but we're still seeing more stability there. i think if we see that stability, that will sort of give some confidence ok, we have more clarity now around investor plans around potential dwaults, and that will enable you to be a bit more confident. i think the political situation, i'm not sure it will

play a big part in this. i think it's really down to the supply and demand dynamics. we've seen the cutbacks and capital expenditure or the plan to cut back. people are focused on this recount reduction. we think maybe they're overplaying that to be honest, but nevertheless there are some signs that the supply story or the exit supply story will wane later this year or into 2016. >> andrew, thank you so much. stick around. we're going to talk about russia, the fed, and the u.k. elections. also coming up the chrysler c.e.o. says a ferrari i.p.o. could be sold faster than he can eat a bagel. how fast does he eat a big snell that brings us to today's twitter question. is he right to be so confident about a ferrari i.p.o.? ♪

>> welcome to "the pulse" live from ploorg's european headquarters here in london. a swiss bank reported full year results this year, boosting its dividend and reassuring investors. let's go straight to manus cranny in zurich, standing by with the c.e.o. for an interview you'll see first on bloomberg. manus? >> very good day to you. you wrapped up the numbers beautifully. the dividend finished up. great to have you with us this morning. when i look at your statement, the impact but you are well positioned to absorb the impact. what makes you so confident to

make that kind of statement when others are cutting jobs when they're talking about keeping an eye on cost cuts? very strong statement from you. >> thanks for the question. a number of things make us very confident on this. first we had a very strong development on our asset base last year, which gives us the very diversified and global book of business. second, we already -- or still have a very strong footprint in switzerland. we still do revenues, some ch gives us a very strong anchor in our home market, and thirdly, we want to look at cost management as a series of one of the initiatives and simply now keep a steady ship and move on. >> steady ship and move on, as you say, which is something that the swiss national bank are not necessarily promising as an industry.

do you think that the swiss franc at around 105 to 110 is a sustainable area for the country at the moment? >> our forecast is 110 at the end of the year. we think it would now fluctuate between 105 and 110, that would be probably what you can expect. >> did the swiss franc do any damage to the credibility? you have a big american focus. you're very well diversified. has it been thrown a bad one? >> on the contrary of it, switzerland is currently the only developed market in the world that tries to run its economy without cheap money and i think you always have to keep things in perspective. when they trade at 450, the british pound traded above it, and if the deutsche mark would still exist today, it would

trade at 5510. switzerland has always had to cope with a strong currency. obviously short-term fluctuations at this amount are a huge challenge. it is tough. we will have challenging times, but i'm very confident and very calm long term this will be a win for the strength and independence of switzerland. >> negative rates will decline negative rates. where do clients turn to in terms of search? >> clients move decisively away from cash. the concept of paying something for giving somebody money is completely out for clients. they look for innovative fixed income solutions, so global aggregate bonds, absolute return bonds flexible bond

strategies are very much here, so clients are willing to take on well managed rates in order to protect their assets and have a decent yield. they look for structured products that gives them success, and some of the clients have started to look into gold again. you promised so much. is this the year of delivery? >> we never promise to do a deal. we always promise to use our capital wisely and in the interest of shareholders. i think we done so. we will not have many interviews where you talk about buying back capital. we still have huge flexibility in our balance sheet, and we're willing to use it, but we will remain very cautious and very disciplined. >> great to have you with us on

bloomberg. i hope you have a conversation with us. ze no staub, thank you so much. back to you, francine. that's it at vontobel. >> thank you so much. it is a swiss week. good try manus. he should definitely speak to us before a deal, try to get him to agree on that. manus cranny. now let's continue the conversation with goldman sachs' international e.m.a. c.e.o., andrew wilson. when we look at greece, the political fallout that we're seeing here in europe, when you look at central banks, how concerned are you that the swiss national bank messed it up? we look at denmark, it's unfair, and yet it took the market by such a surprise. is there a concern that denmark will follow the same policy?

this is the better part of 15 years. if you look at the economy it's much more closely aligned with europe. the correlation of growth is close to 80% versus switzerland about 50%. if you look at the top five export destinations switzerland, only two of them, europe where's for denmark, four out of the five are in europe. the economies are much more closely aligned. i don't think it's an issue. we saw that with switzerland, again with swirtsland, it's a real safe haven. it's had a lot of capital inflow just because of problems elsewhere. i don't think it's likely, but it's something people are talking about. there's no doubt, of course, the swiss national bank certainly surprised markets and we had a pretty big market reaction there. >> and yet denmark has negative rates. you look at yields around the world, and they're going to go down, but where to, because they're so low at the moment. how do you see this panning

out? when is the first time we're going to get a negative corporate bond? >> it's an interesting question. we've seen some of the commercial paper for some of the big names, l'oreal caterpillar have actually traded negative, or at least been on screen at negative rates. we haven't seen a longer term bond trade yet at negative rates. apple at the moment is in the market for an offering for swiss franc. the 10-year is somewhere around 25 basis points. as investors we'll give apple to 25 basis points for the next 10 years. >> does that sound crazy? it sounds crazy talking about it two years ago. >> swiss yields trade at minus 1.5, minus 1.2%. i think we're living in a world where we've got all of these very distorted markets, what looks like incredibly expensive yields. we're paying to lend a good number of the european countries money for the next two, three years as well. again, you've got negative

rates in a number of different places. it does seem there's a threshold to go negative on corporates but certainly if you look at swiss rates, maybe there's a corporate issue with someone like nestle, maybe they should issue for two years at a negative rate. i think it's a matter of breaking that psychology, high quality names in japan. we saw them trading below the government bond. they were not negative but i think in a love where there's a lot of liquidity, and leents forget the e.c.b. hasn't started q.e. yet and it's going to be a matter of supply and demand, and if there is not enough assets around, knowing it is possible we see some of them trading with negative yields. >> if we were to set policy for the world, which we're not, thank god, but if we had one central bank, it would be easing. would that be fair? >> well, i think if you look -- >> easing, it would actually be lowering interest rates. >> well, i think it would be a tough question, because you

have a look at places like europe and say clearly they need low growth rates. let's not forget the u.s. economy is doing pretty well. payrolls last friday very strong, added over a million jobs in the last three months. you could argue, and maybe we would argue this, that policy in the u.s. needs to be less accommodative. if we start to see pickup in wage rates, and maybe last friday was the first sign of that, that we're seeing some improvement in wage rates, knowing a very valid case is to say monetary policy in the u.s. needs to be less accommodative. thank goodness we don't have one central banker, but there is divergence in what's happening in the world that we're going to see this year that divergence sort of continue to carry on. >> the u.s. is pretty lonely, right? you're still expecting an interest rate hike in june or september? >> june or september.

i think it's a close call which of those meetings the fed decides to move. if we see continued improvement in the labor market, and that's the critical issue here, what's happening in the labor market, and specifically what is happening to wage rates, because if we see some sign that wage rates are picking up, i think there's a good number of members who will start to say, hold on we're seeing this coming through. we've still got incredibly accommodative policy, it's time to make it a little bit less accommodative. >> how much do you read into it? it was a festive season. their participation is not that great. >> it picked up a little bit. the unemployment rate came out of 5.7. participation picked up a little bit. >> little bit. >> so, again, we're all trying to understand that sort of demographic argument of a longer term decline of participation. it's hard to see through exactly what is driving each of those facts, but you added over

three million jobs in the u.s. last year. that's a lot of people who have employment, have wages, have money to spend. we haven't touched on it so much, but it also means there's more money in their pocket. we started to see that. you put all that together, the u.s. looks pretty good. you talked about it being sort of lonely, but you might want to be there if you've got growth, looking to be above 3%, maybe as much as 3.5% this year remember that sounds like a pretty good situation. >> would you buy in the u.s.? is it corporates? would you buy bonds? >> yields still look too low. we touched 2% yesterday. we still think they need to go higher than that. where we think there's good opportunities is in the high yield market. it has been hurt as a result of what's happened in the oil sector and of course energy makes up a big proportion of the high-yield market, about 15% is energy companies. we've seen some company

widening of the spread of energy companies, getting to the point where, in our view starting to look interesting. if we had some stability in the oil price and maybe we're seeing some signs of that in the last week or, so then i think the market is overestimating the number of dwaults we'll see in the energy sector. it looks like a reasonable place to invest. >> what's your take on russia? is there money to be made in russia at the moment, or because of the political risk and the fact it's so difficult to understand what vladimir putin wants or what he's going to do, would you stay away? >> i think we're saying a more cautious stance. if you look at the financed mentals, ex politics, russia looks really cheap from an asset point of view, conditions a point of view. you overlay the political situation, it becomes much more difficult. i think the meeting today in minsk will be critical. again, we don't necessarily get a definitive situation here but some sort of cease-fire. we'll give up some confidence that maybe some of those russian assets have now priced

in the worst-case outcome. >> andrew thank you so much. andrew wilson there goldman sachs asset management c.e.o. for m&a. ♪

headquarters here in london. i'm francine lacqua. we're bringing you live pictures from moscow of a giant statement by the russian minister and his greek counterpart. lavrov is saying direct talks between ukraine and rebels are the only way to peace. we'll see a little bit later on whether we will have those meetings in minsk to see whether we can talk about some kind of peace agreement. mr. lavrov speaking there, and we'll hear more from his greek counterpart later on. he's also saying that a

military solution isn't possible in ukraine, saying ukraine is in institutional reform. here are bloomberg's other top headlines. the greek prime minister won a vote of confidence for his anti-austerity program last night. greece now faces the challenge of making a deal with its creditors at an emergency meeting in brussels today. germany's finance minister said there are no plans to discuss a new arrangement or to give greece more time while the commissioner tells bloomberg there is no clear way forward. >> there is no plan on the table. the commission wants the debate tomorrow with a plan but with ideas, yes, with a way forward, but not with a plan. the president won't have a plan. we must together build the plan for greece and the eurozone, and we'll see what are the technical issues that have to be dealt with, but first of all we've got to speak, to

talk to each other. i think that's what lacks until now. >> president obama has spoken by phone with russian president vladimir putin and representatives from russia and ukraine prepare to face each other at peace talks in minsk. the german chance her and the french president are expected to attend the meeting, which aims to end violence in eastern ukraine. if the truce talks fail, russia could face fresh sanctions. obama said on monday he hasn't ruled out providing weapons to ukraine. a record sale for english premier league chief executive announced yesterday that sky will pay just over five billion pounds to broadcast matches from england's top division. that's a 0% increase over what they paid for the last three-year cycle. sky will broadcast 126 games in the u.k. starting in the 2016-2017 season.

let's check in on the markets. jonathan has your asset check. we're expecting -- investors seem to be a little bit more relaxed about the greek situation. >> i wouldn't say relaxed, maybe just waiting to see what's going to happen. s in the eurozone showdown, and this is how we're set just ahead of that meeting a little bit of losses over in spain, down by .2%. the dax right here might leaf my feet in frankfurt. things are settled but they could get volatile ahead that have key meeting. greek stocks giving up some of their gains yesterday. i can tell you within that index, the bank has taken a little bit of pain. at the moment, the bank is coming back. you see the likes of one of the biggest losses. but some of these companies are penny stocks, and they are going to be volatile and jump around on news flow around the greek debt situation. in the f.x. market, euro sterling really the standout.

we go down by .4%. for the first time we're hitting levels not seen since 2008. outside of the f.x. market, and outside of the greek situation actually i take you to the bond market. the big one for me this morning, denmark. the two-year that is a minus sign you're seeing, negative yield. they're trying to keep a peg of the danish central bank. euro danish 7.46. they've had a series of rate cuts to try to defend that peg. they've even suspended bond issuance to try and maintain that peg. that means trying to reduce the amount of danish denominated assets, reduce the appetite, and try to keep it. this morning they had a table auction. they accepted zero bid for that t bill auction. they had 5.9 billion worth of danish for that auction.

they are having such a tough time keeping that peg that they can't even get away a t bill auction. what you are seeing in denmark, negative yields. yields go lower, even lower. in sweden, they issued their first debt with a negative yield. that really is the story at the moment. central bank easing, yields just keep going south. >> in about 25 minutes from now, it's "surveillance" with tom keene. he joins us from new york with a preview. i know you'll look at yields and talk about ukraine and greece. what else is on your show? >> what john farro just said is absolutely critical. it's one of the examples of the great distortion that is out there, negative yields on the short-term paper market. there's no free lunch. we'll talk to brendan brown with his skepticism on europe and his caution about how the various institutions of europe will work out the various issues of the moment.

of course, greece, as you said, front and center. we'll talk to robert nardelli, a frequent guest here, and we'll talk about this idea of what mcdonald's and coca-cola do. what do you do when your core products become so challenged? we'll talk to bob nardelli. our most important question, jonathan stepperman will join us. this off his important, most strange interview with mr. assad of syria. >> thank you so much. i'm really looking forward to the interview. on the question on yields i was speaking to goldman sachs earlier on, and the sque when are we going to see the first corporate bond negative yields, and that will be a game changer. >> again, it's a knock-on effect from one great distortion. as john brilliantly said, a negative yield in sweden, you don't expect that. no, but then we weren't expecting yields so low in the

u.s. and germany. we probably weren't expecting that two years ago. tom keene with "surveillance" in 25 minutes from now. a little earlier this morning, i spoke about the banks in a position to overdeliver this yearment he also said that despite head winds and volatility in europe, the winner in 2015 may be interesting. in the end, after four years of negative g.d.p. italy is export country, and so now we are seeing clear signals of recovery. it is the prize. it is the export in italy, so all the engine for growth will

allow them to become the real surprise n. any case you can have some volatile position for other items. we are ready also to work on management, but also on long volume, and any closer for provision, because we will be better within the country. i'm very positive. >> coming up the big apple, the tech jeent reaches a record $700 billion market cap. ♪

>> welcome back. live from london on bloomberg tv. a place on the premier league playing field just got much more expensive. sky has paid a record 5.14 billion pounds for the rights to broadcast live english premier league soccer, football. 80's an increase of about 70% from one of the sport's most lucrative leagues. did they get a good deal? joining us to discuss is the media analyst, ian whitaker. great to have out program. the fact they got a good deal is slightly overstating it they paid so much more than the last round. could they afford not to pay that much? could they afford not to have these rights? >> that's a good question. if they lost the football that

actually would have been significantly more. if you bear in mind, it's not just a case of what they would have lost in terms of subscribers, the possibility at sky comes from things such as clubs, wholesale revenues, and advertising as well. so a good chung of those revenues have been lost at a very high margin. we estimated back in december that if sky was to lose the majority of the rights then probably there would be a 35% impact on forecasts. if you look at what we said this morning they paid 83% more than they did last time, then we estimate something like 22% to 27% impact on estimates. >> this is a good deal. >> well, it's a good deal when we're speaking. if they lost, then it would have been absolutely disastrous. but the issue here is that, i think you've got two points for sky. one is the obvious one.

the cost of inflation was higher than what people expected. the consensus was around a 40% increase, yet they came in with an 83% increase. the second thing which is perhaps a little bit more theoretical, but probably more important for sky, is how do you now value this company from a longer term perspective? if it's every three years, you're certainly going to have significant price inflation, then from the standpoint, it becomes quite a difficult stock to actually value. this auction is about that, what happens next year the bidding for the league rights. >> what happens next year seems to be another question. if you can't afford to lose, it you may be overpaying every time, and then the sky's the limit, right? >> yes exactly. that's absolutely true. they now face a situation -- if you back -- if you go back, sky was the dominant force.

they could outbid virgin and everyone else. if you look at the situation now, they're facing a strong competitor in b.t. potentially competitors as well. b.t. has far more cash flow than sky. certainly sky is the dominant player, potentially been overbid. >> yeah. >> by these other players as well, and that's a unique situation for sky. >> what does it mean for foreign companies? we're not going reach these levels, but does it mean that the stake is now significantly higher or the price is significantly higher? >> i think for foreign companies, there's an interesting question. they're coming in but their problem has been they don't have a distribution platform in the u.k., so they would have to sell those to either b.t., sky or virgin media. i think for those players, sort of i suspect they are interested in premier league rights, but again, there's an obvious limit, and it's not as high as sky could afford to.

>> give me a sense of what sky now needs to do. you fork out five billion, and then you say, oh, but we're going to be cost cutting. this is not small space cost cutting. are programs going to lose? at the end of the day, is the viewer going to lose out on better programs? >> well there's two ways you can do this. if you look at what they're paying they pay an extra six million pounds per annum. you annualize that take into account b.a.t., you're looking at an extra 70 pounds per year. you connect to 140 pounds. that is quite a significant increase. that is going to be very difficult to put through. if you take that cost, the first thing you say should be five. this is a company with a 150 billion pound pro forma cost base. six billion of that,

realistically, you can't do much about those. you're therefore looking at that four billion extra that you've got to take costs out of and if you consider a considerable 5789 of that is marketing costs, which when you're trying to build your subscriber base, you've got b.t., and there seems to be a grown for people take pay tv services, that's difficult to cut. quite frankly, i think they're really going to have to do something remarkable in order to offset the costs. >> is there anything they can do that's remarkable in terms of offering? we're focusing on cost cutting. i'm not even thinking of new programs, but is there anything to be done in social media? is there anything they can monetize on this? >> i think they try to do certain things for example the mobile offering. if you look at now tv which is a pay-per-view offering, where people don't have to take a subscription, they can just take a day package, for

example, the problem is how do you price it? are people going to pay nine pounds, 10 pounds for one single match? >> are they? i guess football is in a league of its own, pardon no pun, but you know, what i would say it's almost impossible for any format in television seems to be possible when you look at sports. >> that's very true. but again, if, for example you're paying that, you may pay it once are you going to pay it three, four times during the year. why not watch it there? sky has had revenues before, and it's never been a significant chunk of its overall revenue base so history would suggest that actually it's unlikely to be sufficient. >> how surprised were you overall? this is the one question to argue, when the numbers came through yesterday, i mean, we knew it would be higher but how do the negotiations go?

you can just see them sitting down and going, um, how much? >> based upon inflation, if you were to look at the most likely scenario, we had last week there was talk that it would go automatically from the first or second round, so it sounds as though things were pretty close, and then sky was thinking they're prepared to be aggressive. we've got a bit higher, and make sure it's high enough where there's no risk that b.t. could beat it. i think for b.t., this is a very good outcome yet they haven't seen significant price inflation. in terms of their strategy in terms of using football to protect their base, you now have a continuation of that. i think you have expectations 40% increase, again, it's double that in terms of inflation, so the market would have been very surprised as well. >> what does it mean for the premier league?

are we going to get better matches? >> are you going to get better matches? the answer is certainly not. you would get a couple more matches. it's probably great for near manchester and more than anybody who deals with football nation. for those, it's fantastic. it's great for the community. i'd be skeptical about that, quite frankly. this money is going to go through to the clubs and the players. i think as far as fans are concerned -- >> better players at least, or does that not even automatically filter through? >> again, it all becomes relative to the game, because of the cost. let's say the spanish league goes up, and they can pay their players more than, then you get in a bidding war. >> again. >> just continues to go up and up. i wouldn't necessarily say that this is going to lead to a fantastic improvement in the quality of games. >> all right. ian, thank you so much for joining us, media analyst. let's get you some of today's other top stories.

samsung is set to lanche a new smartphone with a three-sided screen. they plan to release it next month, and it will have a display featuring three sides. that's according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. the company is using its skills to revive earnings that have slummed for three straight quarters. make sure you don't drop that phone, that's all i can say. iraq and iran have cut their march crude oil prices to the lowest level in more than a decade. iraqi crude will sell at $4.10 a barrel, while iranian crude will sell at a discount of $2.10 a barrel. the cuts come a week after saudi arabia reduced pricing to asia to the lowest levels in at least 14 years. taking ferrari public will be an easy job for the banks handling the offering as quick as eating a bagel, according to the c.e.o. of the automaker's parent company. when he spoke to bloomberg about a possible i.p.o. -- >> in terms of governance, some

team actually encournls people to be long term. the within that we've got allows you to earn your right to have the extra vote if you hang onto it for three years. it's a long-term commitment strategy in terms of the shareholder base. it may work its way to ferrari we don't know yet. >> apple set a new record when it closed above $700 billion on tuesday. the company announced it's investing $850 million in a new solar farm in california. the world's next biggest company has a market of $385 billion. apple has been growing in value since the release of the iphone6 last september. we'll have much more on today's two big meetings. can greece make a debt deal, and will russia and the ukraine call a truce? we'll have plenty more next. ♪

>> welcome back to "the pulse." all eyes on brussels today as greece tries to do a deal with its european creditors. marcus joins us from athens. how likely is a successful outcome? >> well, today we're not really expecting any resolution to this standoff. i mean there's so much

distance between the two sides, so this is the reason why we've had this extraordinary group being called on the weekend. another euro group next monday which, you know, if there's -- it would be more likely a different outcome. you know, ahead of today, but it's publicly digging in quite a bit in terms of their public country. there's also a lot of work and communication behind the scenes, but the sides are kind of far apart, and there's a lot of confusion if a deal can be reached, what kind of shape that would take, and a good scenario is that we might get some more clarity on that. of course, finance ministers will want to squeeze that out, the greek finance minister and a key thing is how much they can bring out and how much they can resist. >> all right, marcus, thank you so much. marcus in athens for one of the

stories of the day, and then it's interesting because the foreign minister of greece is krpt until russia, and i don't know how much of it is blackmail. if we don't have a deal with the e.u., then we'll go to russia. >> i think there's fair. the amount of money that greece needs, the amount of money we're talking about is much more than russia would be prepared to involve. >> the underlying threat is germany's chancellor wouldn't appreciate that much. >> sure, absolutely. there are other games in town, that's the idea, the russians, the chinese. >> peace talks in minst? >> looks like they're going to happen. they're set to start at 6:30 minsk time. that's three hours ahead of london. the russian president, ukrainian president, leaders of germany and france set to attend. these will probably go way until the middle of the night, probably get a result after the markets close f. they do a deal, that's positive. if they don't, one source says more sanctions could be on the table tomorrow. >> let's see.

thank you so much, ryan. greece on one hand minsk talks on the other hand. follow me on twitter, @f and had lacqua. we'll be back with "surveillance." ♪ . .

this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: it is a bridge too far as greece demands an agreement from germany.

hollande and merkel wants to go to minsk, who and is there with a ukraine agreement. there is a 100% chance that all will sit. elon musk's spacex launches delay. should your tax dollars help poor elon? good morning, everybody. we're live from our world headquarters in new york. it is wednesday, february 11. olivia sterns is with us. she does not own a tesla. brendan greeley is considering a tesla. brendan: brendan greeley drive a minivan. olivia: germany's finance minister says there are no plans to discuss a new deal or give greece extra time, but prime minister elect