tv On the Move Bloomberg February 12, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
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forecast for growth and inflation in over two hour's time. how close are we do that first rate hike? euro stocks off by six points. dax down .01. moves in the bond market. yields in germany lower. yields on two-year, a record low. we go more negative than the early moves. let's get the market open with caroline hide. >> it is going to be -- caroline hyde. >> the mind-set in russia trading down. they seem to be being batted out of the park by the russian rebels in the you drained ukrainian president poroshenko putting out statements so far saying the deal seems to be unacceptable. focus on greece is going to be driving stocks in europe. basically flat.
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higher in the united kingdom. six hours of meetings and nothing agreed. the finance ministers in brussels failing to find any sort of a peace deal here when it comes to greece. overall, we're still seeing stocks remaining remarkably resilient whether they are looking at the greek finance minister, sounding very upbeat with. we have some kind of agreement. we understand eachor much better. we hope there will be an agreement found on february 16 on monday when they go back to the table. barclays, though, saying we believe the likelihood of a greek exit is now higher than at any point since 2012. they see the euro going to parity. let's get on the the foreign exchange market. move happening on the ruble. the ruble down against the dollar. a big spike when there was that headline coming from poroshenko saying at the moment the deal is unacceptable. so worries that won't get any sort of cease-fire or agreement
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for the russian you crane concerns. meanwhile we are looking at the euro. euro currently down. that is against the pound. basically a little bit flat. we'll keep an eye on the euro overall. market pretty resilient when it comes to greece. a little bit of -- there we are. rhone up 6%. what a move -- renault up 6%. profit up 30%. a big beat there. lower labor costs are helping even though we're seeing a slowdown in russia. socgen down 2.4% on the back of its earnings. france's second biggest bank, seeing profit not rising as much as had been hoped. slowdown in russia hurting socgen too. rio tinto on a $2 billion buyback. >> christine lagarde, i.m.f. chief now speaking in brussels about anmy deal for aid for you
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crane. the i.m.f. program l go for four years. the plan needs board approval. obviously we'll get more details as christine lagarde continues to speak. peace talks in minsk trying to find a solution. those talks have been going for 15 hours. together with the i.m.f. news, it has been a very, very busy morning for one man in particular, ryan chilcote. we'll get to the details on the foreign policy side of things. deal with the finances first. >> more than some were expecting. the finance minister said she is looking to 15 billion from the i.m.f. now we're getting 17.5 million. how much of that money comes up front? that the what we'll soo to see. lagarde saying that this plan that she is presenting now still needs board approval. paying attention to a whole
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bunch of different stuff here including what is going on in minsk where we have the four leaders, the russian and ukrainian presidents plus the leaders of germany and france are meeting now with the osce. after talks broke down effectively, the nor mandy group. they presented a cease-fire deal the rebels. that's what we're told by one highly placed diplomat that did not want to be named. presented the plan to the rebel leaders that are also in minsk and have now entered the building or are in there somewhere perhaps taking part in the talks. they rejected it. this is bad news, the second bit of bad news we have got then morning. first talks from the ukrainian president who said no good news to report yet. the russian side are making unacceptable demands. that statement alone led to a decline of 3.43% for the russian
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ruble. it has clawed back a little bit of those losses. >> look at the finances now and go back over the headline. the i.m.f. to extend to ukraine. what about the peace talks that have gone on all night and as you say at the moment, it doesn't look like they are going draw to any conclusion any time soon this morning. what happens, ryan if, these talks fail? >> well, that would be a very negative development. a couple of options on the table. on one hand, you the european union. secretary tomorrow -- secretarytorial sanctions introduced against the banking sector. most likely, the unknown there is what will greece do? there have been some suggestions from the green bays as reevently as yesterday that they don't think more sanctions are appropriate. their foreign minister saying
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they have not been effective. we can get more sanctions imposed on russ yay -- russia by the united states. the fear in europe is it could lead to an old school cold war proxy war scenario where you have the united states arming the yaw crinians on one side and the russians arming the pro russian militants on the other. >> thank you. no doubt you'll bring us more news. i want the take on what's happening in the ukraine. joined now by wayne of northern trust asset management. he is the c.e.o. for europe and asia and helps manage 900 billion dollars. you look at a situation evolving in eastern ukraine. you said the conflict seems to be happening through the financial sector and sanctions. if these talks draw an end with
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the failure, for you, what is the risk of a postpolicy mistake? >> i think there is definitely the potential for more isolation and the it has not the you congratulations and russia -- on the ukraine and eastern europe. their allocation to merging markets is developed. in an era of low risk, low returns, low interest rates investors are hungry for yields constantly. there is a challenge to that. >> when you look at this geopolitical variable, that we haven't had to deal with for a number of decades. last year it was easy to understand for the market. you battered the dax. now it is not so straurd. -- straightforward. the european markets. is it a sign of complacency?
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>> yes. one is the big wakeup that the market had semiweeks ago. wasn't an emerging market risk. it was the swiss again. volatile any a developed market in a currency that has been very stable. i would say the market has had a period of at least three years of relative benign easy to understand conditions. now we're faced with significant market volatility based on the unknowns from an investor's perspective and something we take seriously. it is not only the amount of money we manage by the investment horizon for placing positions in the market. there is a real need to focus on the fundamentals. what we need versus what we don't know. these geopolitical events can afact growth and the point to understand. we have a lot of data to focus on in terms of the industrial
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production retail sales for emerging economies. it is really important to keep back to your framework in interpret s of building a portfolio and making sure you're comfortable with the risks that you're taking and them focusing on those emerging risks and how they continue to develop. >> very hard to calculate. dollar bond dropping away. a lot of this money will probably be used to pay dollar denominated debt. that is going to be a story for the rest of the year. what happens it is a dollar surnls and some of these local currencies plunge. greek debt talks they go nowhere. with the current bailout expiring at tepid of the month, they are runningout road. right now you're looking at live pictures from brussels where i.m.f. managing director christine lagarde is speaking. she just announced a facility. >> let's listen in as we go to
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break. >> and members. that said a package of bilateral and unilateral. the european union as a group. discussions on difficult issues are difficult discussions and they take time. we very much hope that they will be conclusive. that they will help restore peace and more certainly. -- certainty. one of the risks over the potential success of this program is obviously of a geopolitical nave. you know the sooner -- ♪
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>> welcome back. good morning. a very busy 10 minutes. christine lagarde was speaking in brussels. she said the total finance package will be worth $40 billion. there will be an e.u. contribution. we'll bring you to top lines as the show progresses. a meeting in minsk over foreign policy. the ukraine. a meeting in brussels over debt for greece. talks between greece and their creditors went into the early hours of the morning as most people expected they would but they failed to solve their differences. kicking the can down the road,
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they will meet monday. they managed to strike an optimistic note. take a listen. >> an obviously positive one. it should reflect the very positive attitude of everyone around the table today. i was very impressed by the discussion. it was clear to me and my colleagues that the intention for everyone at the table was to find common ground and that to me is encouraging. >> any closer to issuing 8 billion in t bills? >> don't ask me. it is so late at night. >> it is a serious question. markets are wondering about it. will you the ability to fund your government? >> we will have the ability to fund the government. allow me not to enter into public finance in detail. >> don't ask him about a bond market in the middle of the night. hans nichols on the other side of that conversation.
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we go into varoufa kinch s in brussels. a little bit of moody tiredness maybe? >> i was asking about market reaction. he expects it or is hoping it to be positive. there wasn't any conclusion. we do have two important outcomes coming out of it. one, we understand the difficulty of the task. the difficulty of what you're going to do to have greece stay in the program or extend the program in some way. two, jon, this millibar more concerning long-term the concern that varoufakis might not be able to cut the deals himself. there was a remarkable scene last night. thinking they had a deal. about four hours into the meeting heading down to his car waiting in the parking garage
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getting a call on his phone and getting a message that he has to maybe go upstairs. upstairs, mr. varouva kinch s had taken the noor again. he didn't know what to do. he was waiting in the parking garage. left. you this spectacle of finance ministers leaving while some were still inside. talking about how there was no deal. at that point, the euro dropped. earlier it was up a little bit on optimism of a deal. today we're going to sort out whether or not the leaders can get anywhere. kicks the can down the road. there will be another round of negotiations on monday. it is clear that he needs run everything by athens and that could slow down entire negotiate progress sess. jon? >> -- process. >> it is europe. we never expect things to be
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quick and efficient do we? wayne? almost a trillion dollars. you're sitting in the united states where a lot of that money resides. do they understand -- do they get what's happening here in europe? how nuanced is this? is there a sense this is 2012 all over again for the u.s. investor? >> from their perspective, and global investors we're trying tone sure they understand greece is not the same as spain, italy, portugal, ireland. it is a different case. tiny, small, the g.d.p. was equivalent to a madrid. there are issues around the political process and again, i think if you come from anglo saxon type country, things happen tend to be quicker, faster easier to understand. a multitude of states, it
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absolutely needs the time to get the decisions that this process where you have finance ministers agreeing, but they are not agreeing and going back to the central government. i think it is quite normal. i agree with you in interprets of kicking the dan can -- terms of kicking the can down the road. they are trying to get their messaging correct and they need to agree on some of the finer points. that is modest positive. they need to try to manage the message to the greek people is and say we haven't let you down. we have negotiated some package that is fine for us as a country also in showing their external facing message one that we're going to agree, we're going to keep in -- there is some kind of austerity program. they are going balance a message. >> when you strip out to politics, though and look at the pure market moves.
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it has just done this through january, is the conviction still to be overweight equities despite the political noise? where are yes. -- yes. we're not expecting stellar growth at all from the european economy or developed markets outside the u.s. in the 1% 1.5% g.d.p. range, there is growth there. you can see corporates being able to gather market share and increase cash and improve good and services. from a european perspective, the par for the e.c.b., the depreciating currency, the depression of bond yields and credit spreads is something we have seen in the u.k., japan and the u.s. it follows the rule book of how the q.e. program works. investors are not only looking at the pure fundamentalors growth but also about the impact that the q.e. is having on the
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eurozone. >> sweden denmark, not just the likes of germany. are you still working to pick up those government bonds? >> i would say look at the u.s. treasury market. from the u.s. investors perspective, they can get nervous in terms of below level treasury yields. it looks good value as well. i do think there is this degrees, an expectsation of further flow of funds, especially if we had language that would indicate there was some pop in u.s. yields. that there is a move in monetary policy. as we look forward through the year, it would not surprise us to see perhaps less attractiveness from a european bond market perspective and more attractiveness from a u.s. treasury perspective. >> the c.e.o. of europe and asia trust management.
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i.m.f. chief christine lagarde announced a package worth $40 billion. that includes aid and contributions from the european union. good news for the ukraine's economy, at least for now after almost a year of conflicts, concerns continue about their ability to service their debt. they still need to pay back debt to russia. we are 21 minutes into the session. the ftse dead flat. the dax higher by some 17 points. the moves in the bond market this morning. i'll bring you those moves later in the show. we're back after a short break.
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>> good morning and welcome back to a very busy market open. we got news from christine lagarde. i want to bring in ryan chilcote who has been looking at that news as it comes in. looks like a $40 billion finance package. are ar that's what lagarde said. 17.5 billion of that is the contribution from the i.m.f. that might be a little bit more than what people were anticipating. the finance minister had been talking about the need for 15 billion. but of course this is a four-year program. you look at the gap in financing, that's about 40 billion. there is the need for the i.m.f. money now plus all that other money. some of it she said might come from the european union.
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she didn't say whether russia is going to be part of pitcht they have all right lend 3 billion. there is going to have to be talks with existing creditors immediately after this and they are going to have to be part of bailing ukraine out. >> that is the thing. we look at the situation and compare it to what happened with greece. get a financing package now. four years they are going to come back for more in another year? how much of this money is going to be used to service existing debt and russia is a big unknown in all of that. >> absolutely. you can assume the russians are going to play hardball when it comes to those negotiations. these negotiations with all the creditors as a result are going to drag on for a good time because obviously the creditors will be looking for one deal for all and that is going to be a hard thing for the ukrainians to accommodate in these circumstances. what is also interesting is the timing of lagarde's statement. 9:00 this morning, brussels time. i think there was an
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expectation, another thing that standard bank's tim ash was talking about that we would already have a cease-fire out of minsk. alas we don't. he says this is perhaps a way that the i.m.f. as part of the west is saying we're going to stand by ukraine in any case, even if there is not a cease-fire though we did hear lagarde in that press conference there saying geopolitics was not a small part of this all working out. that was probably the understatement of the day. really interesting that we get this aid despite the fact that the talks going on in minsk have yet to yield anything. >> exactly. we have the financial relief. will we get the leaf for the conflict in eastern ukraine ryan will be all over that story. the talks continue. coming up, the rate debate. we preview the bank of england's inflation report. we are just a couple of minutes away from the rate decision from
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>> good morning and welcome back. i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up for you. pretty much a flat day in london. the ftse 100 doing nothing. big breaking news coming out of stockholm, sweden. the swedish central bank cutting rates to negative 0.1%. there you go. sweden's bank lowers the key rate to 0.1%. averaging minus 0.11% in the second quarter of 2015. they join the easing club in
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sweden. euro/krona goes higher. the consensus of economists said no action. some of the traders i was speaking to said we would get the cut and guess what? here we are. a rate cut from sweden. the swedish krona falling off the cliff. that is a stronger euro. lowered to minus 0.1%. going unconventional just like the e.c.b. just like denmark with inflation falling at an annual 0.3%. they have already pledged to keep rate increases on hold until well into 2016. now rates continue to go south. now i want to get some of the top stories on the equity markets. >> the key stock for stoxx 600 is outo this kumpu.
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55 million euros. less than the 65 million loss many were anticipating. they say look, first quarter looking hopeful. they are saying earnings are slightly positive and they have a higher delivery volume. meanwhile renault up a significant amount. up 7%. this is the highest that we have seen renault trade at for 10 months. the french car maker of course. 2014 earnings climbed 13%. better than analysts had been expecting. lower labor costs have been helping. offsetting the pain they are kneeling russia and in latin america. renault driving higher. meanwhile, rexel, one of the key losers today. why? the world's largest distributor of electrical equipment, it has
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a profit warning. profit they say not only did it fall in 2014, but overall they are saying the margins, to so the margin of profitability on their earnings will not meet their expectations for longer than have been expected. rexel one of the worst performers on the stoxx 600. >> let's bring you to decision from the swedish central bank. they take the rate negative to minus 0.1%. government bonds with maturities of one year to five years. joining the q.e. party as well. taking rates negative. inflation minus 0.3%. negative interest rates just like denmark. falling off the cliff, the swedish krona.
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the u.k. rate debate. the bank of england inflation report released in a few hours. investors looking for clues what the central bank could do. will they raise rates sooner than expected? months away from the first rate hike. expectations got close to liftoff last year. now showing 10 months until first hike. joining us now, former b.o.e. policy maker and now pricewater house official. andrew, i want to start with you. no votes for a rate hike at the bank of england now. would you thrown towel? fingerprint >> no, i would still be supporting a gradual rate rise. i think the bank has to inconsistent approaches to policy. one is to say we don't need to
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raise rates yet. the second is to say we want to raise them gradually. if you delay raising too long, we have had speeverpbes that in the past in the u.k. and have seen it in united states. >> when i look at the situation developing in the rest of the world, the swedish central bank saying they are buying nominal government bonds for 10 billion swede ircrone pavement is that the right approach? for that reason, should the bank of england be holding off? >> it is very different the scandinavian country and the eurozone. the u.k. continues to perform very well. the data of how the economy performed is very encourage. falling inflation has different medium term implications. the minutes at the january meeting i suspect will be reiterated today. of course in the short-term inflation is going negative and certainly very flow the u.k. medium term pressures may have
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moved to the upside because consumers are getting a boost to their disposable income. it is a different situation. the stronger pound is potentially going to be an issue. but at this point, they have to balance the -- the low inflation now with what that means going forward and if they want to get this gradual path correct, they are going to have to be very careful as to when they start. they leave it too late, they will have to go faster than they may like to. >> would you be recommending the governor leans against market expectations as he did back in june? is that something you would expect at 10:30? >> the governor has to reflect the committee's views. there will be a spectrum of views. even though they have taken their rate rise off the tabe. it is -- the table. it is not clear whether that is a tactical adjustment.
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i think he will be trying to strike a balance in the inflation report. i think he will be talking about the medium term inflation outlook. some of the evidence we're seeing from businesses is increasing skill shortages. the skill shortages reported by the c.b.i.'s are some of the highest we have seen. that's telling us that this growth we're seeing in the u.k. economy is beginning to put pressure on the labor markets. they can see levels above where they are at the peak. i think it is important that carney reflects both sides of the equation. not just that it is not quite the right time to raise rate bus giving the signal that the bank would be prepared to raise rates. >> the debate last year was move
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early, move gradually. no now waiting to see whites of the eyes of inflation. has debate shifted within the central bank as well? >> i don't think so. i think what has shifted is the recent behavior of inflation and where it is going to go over the near term. the two members who backed over the hike have not given up on the recovery. they are not waiting to see inflation accelerate. sher just saying it looks incon grewous. the chance s of a rate hike within the next 12-18 months have probably increased significantly. we have to get through the election in may which is a big potential risk if you end up with a minority government and political stalemate, which is very possible and it is extremely precarious and they
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will want to see that settled down before they start moving rates. if we see these skill shortages feed through into higher wage inflation over the next six months that is going to be a significant boost to disposable income and the consumer is going to perform pretty well i think. let's talk about the currency a little bit more. when i look at cable, sigh weak pound. when i look at everything else, i see a weak currency. denmark doing what they are doing. could it back problem? >> it could. you look at the trade-weighted index, it is pushing up. it is pushing up. exporters have to be part of the story if the recovery is going to be balanced and sustainable. a strong pound, which obviously will push down on inflation sprurs one reason the bank of england is being careful about the timing of rate hikes.
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the more they diverge policy from the eurozone and other countries around europe. >> i think policy makers shouldn't get too hung up on the appreciation of the pound. it did appreciate against the euro. it is reflecting the difficulties in the eurozone and some of the monetary policy responses like q.e. the pound is still on the effective exchange rate, over 2010% below where it was before the financial crisis. it is not -- over 10% below where it was before the financial crisis. it is not overvalue at the moment. >> when i look at growth and unemployment, i see stronger economy, one that doesn't warrant rates being 5%. do you think there is still a concern about household debt, precrisis that is still there and incredibly sensitive to the smallest of rate hikes? does that concern exist? >> some people are concerned about it but i think that
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concern does tend to be a bit exaggerated. for two reasons. there has been some deleveraging in the household sector. secondly we have to think forward. what is in danger of happening in the household sector is a new wave of debt gearing up on this low level of interest rates. the bank needs to concern itself with that. the household sector actually has in aggregate more financial assets than debt. that needs to be used to put these concerns in context. >> a few months away. you have been writing about this. the uncertainty for u.k. politics. the b.o.e. can't ignore it, can they? >> no. for two reasons i think. one is what it may do to confidence and investment tensions in the run-up to the election and the other is because tool plans are not hugely different between major parties if they are in a position to enact them may 17
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they have to set monetary policy in the context of where fiscal policy is. until they know what the fiscal policy stance is and can calibrate their policy views accordingly, it is another reason if not, you know, an absolutely concrete one, it is another reason to tread carefully over the next few months. there are risks around the election. the polls at the moment point almost always to a complicated outcome and a high risk for the minority or weak coalition government and that does make a difference compared to the current coalition we have now. >> how would you handle it andrew? >> i would argue it would help get some increase in interest rates. i know that is becoming much less likely. we could run into a period of political uncertainty where it is difficult for the bank to raise rates until much later in year. and then that increases the risk they get behind the curve.
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i would have been arguing for doing something before te election but i think the most likely scenario is it will wait until after. >> we also face a strange scenario where they may forecast negative inflation and push back expectations and say rate rises could be around the corner. just before we go, estimates for the first hike. what are they going to raise? >> i still think before the end of this year. >> you, john? >> our forecast is november. i wouldn't disagree but risks it will be later than that because of some of the problems that lay in the way. >> thank you for joining us. we will have full coverage of the bank of england's inflation report later today. governor mark carney speaks in just under under two hours. we head to the break.
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the greek three-year note. that yield bouncing around. up 52 basis points. that is nothing if you have been watching the greek bond market in the last 12 months. the big news from the i.m.f. , speaking in bruzzles christine lagarde setting a $40 billion plan. here is what she told us. >> you know, it is a very big program. 17.5 billion is a lot. it is ambitious. it is a realistic but not without risk program. we have built buffers in there to take into account some of the geopolitical risks and we very much rely on the courage and the determination of the ukrainian authorities to conduct the reforms, which if conducted will
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i'm jonathan ferro. this is "on the move." sweden their central bank taking some headlines this morning. they just joined over a dozen global counts parts in easing interest rates. a weaker swedish currency. that is a five-year low for the swedish currency against the dollar. the riks bank moving this morning to take the interest rate there negative. minus 0.1%. also announcing purchases of government bonds. inflation running at an annual minus 0.3%. unemployment in sweden despite growth remaining solid, the unemployment rate kicking up to 8.7%. that will be a concern for them. taking the interest rate negative. what will denmark do off the back of that? that is the big question. switzerland did just a month
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ago. i want to talk swiss now. solid fourth quarter for credit suisse. a dividend was announced. that was the surprise part of the release. manus cranny is in zurich with details. >> it was a bit of a surprise. the market was expecting brady dougan and credit suisse to agree to the dividend. you have the biggest one day gain in years that. when you meet brady, he is not a c.e.o. that is easily harried or hurried. quite measured. standing firm on this dividend. >> we have a strong operating result in the fourth quarter so i think that shows that the business continues to perform consistently and very solidly, which is good. on capital generation, we had a target for the end of the year,
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10%. we were at 10.2. we exceeded that. went from 9.3% at the end of may to 10.2. you can see there is a lot of capital generation capability in the business. we felt a cash dividend consistent with last year. we are offering the option for shareholders to take scrip if they would like but we thought that was a right balance. >> do you think a lot of the institution would take the scrip dividend to afford you some flexibility in continuing to build capital. you have set leverage targets. a good year for deleveraging or a tough one? >> a lot of them like to take the scrip alternative. that is one of the reasons we're offering this. it helps to build capital as well. we do have a lot of institutions that like that option. as you said, we actually reduced
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over 50 billion balance sheet in the fourth quarter. we made very good progress on continued deleveraging and set new targets for the end of the year and i think our view is that we're continue dog be ahead of -- continuing to be ahead of the curve in the business and it is more efficient in terms of using the balance sheet. we felt good about our ability to achieve those targets. >> that will keep the -- them happy. there is also a statement here. the board of directors taking 25% total remuneration cut. the executive board and the group. this is a shift in pay. i understand you're probably acknowledging 2014. but do you feel a real shift in terms of how remune vegas going -- remuneration is going to go? >> first of all, we had a result in 2014 which is pretty much even with 2013.
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even with the impact of the settlement in there. we had basically a pretty even result including the impact of the settlement and yet the economic value of our compensation for all employees is down about 9%. that shows discipline. in interpret s of the settlement -- terms of the settlement, it was important to get that behind us. they did a good job on that. it was a tough period to work through. we did feel that it was right to acknowledge the impact on the earnings of that settlement and as a result, as you mentioned, the board as well as the executive board voluntarily took these reductions and computation as an acknowledgment to have impact that the settlement had on the results in 2014. >> only the two d's that are drivering the stock. the dividend and the deleveraging story. that is about building capital. one thing that has come through from sergio monti at u.b.s. and
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top of the hour. guy johnson joins me now. we have sweden pulling through with a rate cut. it is busy disease. >> going to be coming on talking about his story in russia and what's happening with the e.c.b. that is going to be fairly interesting. as you say, the bank of england, the inflation report, we will be taking that live and in full. >> looking forward to it. >> guy johnson on "the pulse" in about four minutes. i'm going to leave you with this. sweden joining the easing club, could you tell cutting rates to negative territory, minus 0.1%. the dollar surging. a five-year low for sweden's currency against the u.s. dollar. if you want to continue this conversation, you can follow me on twitter. i'm at ferrotv. the ftse here in london, a little bit higher. up by 11 points. good luck for the rest of your
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