tv On the Move Bloomberg February 20, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
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germany's daxx starts the straight -- the trading days at a record high. the pmi is coming through for france. i am looking at future markets lower. the stoxx 50 down by nine points. dax futures up by 20 points. let's get to manus cranny. >> it is going to be an interesting day in terms of extend or pretend as i like to call it. an extension in terms of liquidity to stay in the eurozone. to greece. who's going to face who off first? that is the crunch time for european markets. merkel. they will meet and discuss what is going on. equity markets is coming back ever so slightly. you have telecoms delivering numbers. down .9%. 58.64.
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they lower their overall sales forecast. the bed with has narrowed. a difficult year. fragile. that is the language of one of the biggest -- makers in the wo rld. telecom italia the pace of sales slowing down. the pace has abated somewhat. trying to save the debt status for telecom italia. markets disappointed with those fourth-quarter numbers. sales declined by 4.1%. why do i bring up brent? because i think ukraine and the ruble story isn't something that has been pushed off the agenda because of greece. --if you look at dollar- ruble, what you have is the dollar declining ever so slightly. you have this momentum because you had a big shift in dollar-r
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uble over the past 30 days. you can see the dollar down. and ruble really appreciating getting back to the 60's zone. this rally is the biggest rally almost on record. will brent stay above $60? that ties into every single nuance you see on the dollar- ruble. >> breaking news out of france. the pmi coming through for the month of february. the pulmonary reading for manufacturing pmi coming in at 47.7. under 50. that is contraction. i'm looking at the services pmi, much better than expected. 53.4. so that number accelerating in expansion territory. he put the two together. the composite pmi 52.2. a mix, but he put them together and it is a little bit better than expected.
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that is the french data. in 28 minutes, we will get the german pmi. we will bring them to you live on bloomberg. the other big piece we are all watching today is crunch time in brussels. finance ministers holding talks today to try to find the agreement over greece before the end of the month. yesterday, greece proposed a six-month loan extension. minutes later, germany's finance minister rejected greece's request. that move prompting this angry reaction from greece's deputy pm. >> we must realize that at this moment it appears that there are powers that would like greece on its knees so they can impose their will. i believe we can all think of what helps our country and what helps these powers. >> our international correspondent hounds nichols joins us from brussels. all of this playing out in a very public arena. >> it's public, it is getting to
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be personal and in many cases getting to be kind of nasty. here is what we heard yesterday afternoon. this is from a greek official about the deputy level talks. they are saying that the german line on what this proposal is is a trojan horse. pretty strong language. a breach of protocol to come out of private negotiations. he is the greek finance minister. he was up late last night tweeting one of the articles said something along the lines of greece should not given to germany's bullying. we know that retweets to not mean endorsements but that gives you a sense of what he is thinking. then you just suppose that along with his interview to the telegraph. he said, "what we cannot accept is the fiscal adjustment agreed by the last government be carried through just because the rules say so. there is no macro economic argument that can be made for
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further and tightening." what we seem to have here is that the finance ministry level, there seems to be quite a bit of conflict. both sides digging in. the question is, can tensions be called at the prime minister and chancellor level? yesterday they had a 50 minute phone call. so there is a chance for opportunity. an opportunity for talks to continue for there to be progress. what the germans are saying is that they do not inspect -- expect and are not anticipating a new proposal. they want to work with the proposal on the ground and that will be the basis of negotiations. we could be in brussels for quite a long time. >> uii take it back over to frankfurt. where is the ecb? are they started to get worried about the greek banking sector? >> they are. the ecb is warning greek banks they are intending to have greek
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banks lower their exposure to greek debt. that is important because namely, there are two bond payments. one due in the marsh. in april there is a $2.4 million. most of the debt is bought from greek banks. if that is not consider adequate, the banks one of the able to buy back debt and you will have a funding crisis much sooner than we had been intimating. they'll have to make some tough decisions on which bills to pay. >> hans nichols. thank you very much for joining us. let's get the investor take on all things greece. we are joined by the chief cross asset analyst at morgan stanley. let's talk about the public arena. usually you can get by with just the bloomberg terminal. now you need twitter. you need to follow --
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what do you make of this mess now? >> may be stepping back and being lighthearted. maybe we can think of a trojan horse as a greek plan that helps distract the greeks. seriously, i think this is is not a new problem. for the last four years we have been facing seemingly impossible political and economic gridlock. we have been facing, as well, a lot of problems that have small probabilities of a very bad thing happening. yes this is something investors have to follow. yes, it is absolutely affecting how global investors approach european investing, but i do not think this is a new problem for better or worse. i do think it is something that ultimately global investors are going to be able to get through as they reengage in investing in europe. >> your clients on the other end of the fence, how is the conversation between now and 2012? >> i think there is significant, people are more relaxed. i think part of that is because
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panicking or worrying or hedging aggressively on the back of these types of headlines has been extremely expensive. in some cases has led investors to miss very good opportunities. i think actually what is remarkable is if you look at how assets that should be affected by the more dangerous scenarios in this affect, bank runs spreading through europe broader systemic risk from greece in the eurozone assess they should be exposed to that risk are very well behaved and very relaxed. >> which assets? >> a couple things. if you look at where financial credit spreads trade relative to broader markets. that basis is near five year lows. yet was wider during the worst bout of the euro crisis. if you look at where expected volatility on european bank stocks is yes, it has risen. but in a five-year view, it is
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very low. >> we will talk about spreads more after the break -- is that really a reflection of insulation, instead of relaxation? >> i think that is the market's view. look the european bank is is an has been recapitalized. the european banks themselves are holding less greek or peripheral exposure than they were in 2010. but look i think what also matters is that when i think people talk about worrying about greece and greece's implications i think we are implicitly talk ing about something a stomach. we're not talking about greece leaving the eurozone. that is where there is potential for inconsistency. on the one hand, people are worried enough where it is preventing them from investing in european stocks. at the same time, assets that should be exposed, the worst scenario that would be worrying people are for more relaxed -- are far more relaxed. >> spreads remaining
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relaxed. where are the opportunities? >> i think there are couple of areas that stand out. maybe i will move geographically a little. in the u.s., it is credit market story. that you have, i think in the midst of the s&p at all-time highs in other markets behaving well, the u.s. credit, whether it be investment grade or emerging-market dollar debt has been in a pretty bad selloff since the middle of 2014. yes that has come back a bit in the last couple weeks, but it still stands out relative to other asset classes. in an environment where yields in europe are so low, yields in japan are so low and where the net supply of government bonds is so low after all of this q.e. global investors are going to have to reassess that the u.s. is a market offering a big pickup in relative government bond yields. big pickup and spreads.
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that will make dollar credit pretty attractive. now, in europe and japan, i think more investors looking at refresh very -- reflationary trades. those in well performing equity market here today -- on a three or four year time horizon, they have still lagged the s&p significantly. there is room for investors to engage. >> we will talk about u.s. investment markets. today marks one year since the massacre in kiev which set a revolution in motion. ukraine has a new government lost crimea and the cease-fire is tested. a on, is there an end in sight? more on that when "on the move" returns. ♪
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>> i am jonathan ferro. this is "on the move." time to check in on some of the top stock stories. they dropped their sales forecast amid emerging-market difficulty. the stock down 1.5%. telecom italia slowed its revenue decline. sales dropped 7.8% last year but previous than the past year. we will bring you more on those stories later on. the ftse in london pretty much dead flat. i want to get to another top story could today marks the first anniversary of the massacre when 50 demonstrators demonstrating against the government in kiev were shot
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dead. an event which sparked beginning of the crisis in the country. over the year, we have seen the collapse of the russian rubleand the ukrainian currency. ukraine's economy has pretty much crumble. the tension remains as a delicate cease-fire is tested every single day. joining us now from moscow is henry mayer. great to have you with us this morning, despite the broken cease-fire, what seems to be germany, france, russia, ukraine said they are still committed to implementing last week's peace agreement. what are the chances of that? >> the efforts are still underway to try and salvage last week's peace agreement. those countries you mentioned, they are all committed to it because the alternative would be an escalation of the conflict. the u.s. said it is considering sending defensive weapons to ukraine, which would mark a major new phase in the war which could lead to a proxy
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war between russia and the united states. those efforts are very much under way. the cease-fire is being tested every day. there was a battle for our town in a key railway junction which the rebels took yesterday. and the ukrainian military are reporting fresh violations of the cease-fire artillery fire in the region over the last 24 hours. the osce, the international organization charged with implementing the cease-fire, issued an appeal today to both sides saying that minsk agreement represents a unique chance. it is very much up in the air. >> thank you very much. for giving us the update. joining us from moscow. the chief cross asset chatted -- strategist is still with us. let's try and put the stories together.
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ukraine, greece a fragile truce. tensions with. you strip all of that out and look at the equity performance. are you negative are looking at the positives? >> we are more focused and on positives. yes, there are geopolitical risks. there are a number of positives going to the market. i think these are more notable in reflection of how worried people were at the beginning of the year are the first couple weeks about feeling -- failing growth and fed tightening. i think what we have seen and could continue to see through the first quarter and first half of this year is a combination of growth that is looking better in the u.s., the eurozone, in japan, on the back of lower energy prices and weaker currencies. as well as central-bank policy that, rather than being a story of tightening, has been a story of easy with the ecb doing more than expected, with rate cuts from peru to indonesia. and that backdrop providing still a constructive environment
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for equities. >> remarkable the amount of central banks that have east policy so far. i have lost count. coming into the middle of summer last year, we are looking at that spread between investment-grade company and high yields, the cost of borrowing for those companies have tightened before the financial -- since before the financial crisis. a lot of people attribute that to easing of the central banks. are you concerned about that? >> less than other people. there are two reasons for that. i think first is if we look at go over a long span of history and we have investment-grade spreads lying back to the 1920's, spreads are above average or no worse than average. >> that is the chart we are looking at. high yields. >> absolutely. the market has certainly -- seems comfortable with the s&p and where it is trading. high yield as a risk premier
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and story is less extreme. look, you are also dealing with valuations in the credit market that are closer to where they were at the beginning of 2004 and where they were in 2007. yes, i think investors who got two bearish in 2004, it was too early in the cycle. we think there is aenough to support tighter spreads. >> that blowout we have seen from high-yield, that story in that chart, there is some finer detail going on especially in europe when you see the yield on nestl'ee's debt turn negative. that must be a cause of concern that the spillover from sovereign debt to corporate credit, things gone too far? >> i think if you are a global investor, you are looking at the widest differential in europe
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between buying the corporate debt of the u.s. company and a european company that we have since data begins which is 15 years ago. certainly the ecb has done exactly what it try to do -- lower the cost of borrowing. great. but what is good for the corporate is not necessarily good for the lender. in interestingly, great corporate get the joke. we have started to see more u.s. companies borrowing in euros. taking advantage of the low yields. i think this is a trend that continues, that the economics of borrowing in euro srs are good. and that has created demand. i think we will see more international borrowers coming to the european market. >> i want to finish with this quickly. u.s. companies borrowing over here -- it is a delicate time considering ready fx rate is at. the euro we could get a blowout. and then a significant fx risk. is that a concern? >> at the moment it is still relatively small.
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i think there are a couple of ways people could approach it. one, many issuers hedge. two many issuers borrow only up to the amount of exposure they have in the region. i think we see a little bit of that in asia or emerging markets. there is concern about the dollar e borrowing ofm companies but in many cases they are barring because they have also dollar revenues on the other side. i think at the moment those currency risks would be lower than the potential benefits of very cheap almost the lowest on record, borrowing costs available here. >> pleasure having you on the show, talking of weak euro. the euro hit a fresh seven year low against the pound. down .3%. stronger sterling. coming up, we will head to paris. a company posted sales that beat a revenue forecast for 2015.
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>> the concern seems to be more about the outlook than the actual earnings. 2014 a much better year than the year before. in 2013, they were impacted by the -- sellout in asia, that some of their products might lead to botulism. these scares are not over. the like for like sales in 2014 were up 4.7%. at 7.45% in the fourth quarter better than estimates. but if you break down the number, you have to be careful because the fresh --division, which is the biggest division more than half their sales actually saw -- 1%. so, this is the biggest division of danone. and the baby food sales still represents only 20% roughly. >> than kyou. the stock trading down by 2%.
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coming up, we talk much time in greece. straight to athens for a reaction. and give you the greek market open. we are moments away from the key german pimi. equity markets in london heading further and further away from record highs. the ftse 100 down by two points. the dax down by 0.3%. check out euro-sterling setting a fresh seven year low. coming to that german pmi. a weaker euro. french pmi manufacturing disappointed. the composite a little bit better. the pmi numbers from germany looking for manufacturing to come in at 51.5. services 54.4. in the composite at 54. all in expansion territory. if you want to continue the
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jonathan: welcome back. i'm jonathan ferro live in london. 30 minutes into your trading day. equities in london trading dead flat. we are looking for breaking data out of germany as the dax trades lower. manufacturing data coming in lower as well. 51.5 for german manufacturing. comes in at 50.9. services better than expected at 55.5. the survey was 54.4. if you are looking at the composite, it is really not bad at all. equities across much of europe still trading lower.
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euro-sterling at a seven-year low. equity markets pretty much flat in london. let's get some of the stories within that market with mark barton. >> good morning. big day for danone today. it is going to see no pickup in sales this year, joining its european consumer goods peers in forecasting such eventuality. inflationary fears, weakening currencies in emerging markets, also playing its part. the chairman sums it up. last year, a year of political and economic turbulence, not to mention severe volatility. a taste of what awaits us in the years ahead. sanofi up by 0.25 presented a. its got a new chief executive. he comes from bayer health care. he's got a big job on his hands reversing -- replacing the
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former ceo. he has to rebuild investor confidence. shares rising today up by 0.2%. telecom italia also rising today. is the country's largest telecoms company. it reported debt reduction that showed some early results of the chief executive's turnaround efforts. fourth-quarter sales dropping 4.1% comparing with a 9.1% drop for the first nine months of the year. one down, two up. jonathan: thank you very much. equities just opening up over in athens, trading a little bit higher, up by 1% 0.7% rather this morning. we will let that warm up. greek bonds also trading pretty much dead flat. in the greek bond market, a move of four basis points really is
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nothing. a lot to talk about in greece. let's get straight to our bloomberg news reporter in athens. big meetings today in brussels between greece and their creditors. what does it take to reach an agreement here? everybody was optimistic then germany rejected it. what is the story? >> it is quite an important day. grace's take it or leave it stance on germany's action of the greek proposal yesterday is mainly due to the fact that greece's proposal has quite a few contentions on the table. germany on the other hand sees the proposal as vague lacking in details, and open to interpretations. hopefully the cone ball -- the phone call between them
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yesterday shed some light on this and the greek proposal can serve not as a trojan horse but as a basis to find a solution today in the eurogroup meeting. a solution that will look behind the words and straight to the problem. fiscal targets have to be met. privatizations have to be pushed forward. serious reforms on the labor front have to be undertaken. otherwise, february 28 deadline is approaching and there is so much left for the greek banking system. jonathan: let's talk about the greek banking system. everybody's hopefully get a deal today. what happens if there is no solution? what does it mean for the greek banking sector? >> if there's a solution today or within the next week, greek banks will face a serious cut in
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credit crunch. deposits at the moment in greece are calculated to be less than 145 billion euros down from 160 billion euros in december. outflows are increasing and ecb's reluctance to offer leeway only 3.3 billion were added this week, this may mean that liquidity issues will arise, serious ones and capital controls may be necessary. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. deposit flight, the big story in greece. greek banks remain a concern. deposit flight speeding up as the months progressed and we get seemingly no closer to a deal. you see the chart on your screen. does this week in greece's hand
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as they go into negotiations with their creditors? that chart courtesy of our next guest. let's put that question to him. is this a noose around greece's hand? guest: absolutely. deposit flight is really crucial to understanding the dynamics of this crisis. deposit flight, as you said, has been speeding up since the start of the year. it is really putting a lot of financial pressure on the greek government to reach a deal. that is why we've seen them blank a number of times over the last few days. jonathan: yesterday, they blinked. we could finally write that headline. they made a compromise. most people thought we would get a deal today. minutes later, the german finance minister says, no deal. are you surprised by that? guest: not really, knowing him. a lot of people describe this as
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a game of poker. what we've seen is, the greek finance minister varoufakis has shown his hand. we know it is a weekend. wolfgang schaeuble seems to be still playing poker. someone should say, they have actually taken a step. i think this is actually the start of the negotiation process. i think that behind all the rhetoric, the political noise the two sides are coming closer together, and i think that most people in german government accept that this is the start of negotiation. >> yesterday morning, there was no meeting today. maybe varoufakis and the greek government got what they wanted. when they sit around that table, talk to me about who has the leverage. is that a problem for greece or the whole of europe? it is certainly a problem for greece.
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there's no doubt about that. in terms of europe, i think it is less of a threat than it was in 2012. the rest of the european banking sector are less exposed to greece. contagion has been very limited. that could change if greece really looks like it is heading for the exit. i don't think we should underestimate the risks. they look less than they did a couple years ago. jonathan: a lot of people talk about how this is in 2012, the best case scenario is we get a deal. i don't really see any strong trades off the back of it. if you are that sure there's going to be a deal, by greek banks. is that a trade you would make? guest: in our base scenario, in everyone's base scenario, that would be a fantastic opportunity , but once you are risk-adjusted , maybe it looks different.
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there's a very important tail risk here, which i think changes the dynamics of that one. jonathan: i guess the other side of this is, to look at this and say, how quickly are they going to make a deal before capital controls come in? is there a timeline in your mind? guest: i think that things could get -- they could go on a little bit after the deadline. i personally think that the ecb would not be that eager to switch off the ela, that deposit flight, that would be the main factor. that could speed up very significantly. that could indeed force capital controls maybe earlier than the current scenarios suggest. jonathan: we talk a lot about ela. let's talk about ecb qe.
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if they get a six-month extension, within that is july. the ecb may actually by greek bonds. if we only have what the greeks call a bridge loan, a six-month extension, would the ecb seriously by greek debt? guest: i don't think so. i think this bridge loan is seen as a bridge loan or extension. i think the real deal is seen as a long-term one, the four-year deal that everyone is talking about. there would need to be an agreement there are more or less an agreement for the ecb to consider that. it could be back to square one within weeks of starting to buy greek government bonds. i don't think that would make sense. jonathan: as we approach this meeting, you will be sitting at your desk watching this news flow come in, what are you looking for from the other side, from germany?
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what are the concessions they've got to make? guest: i think a key thing is less austerity. a reduction of the primary surplus targets. there's a strange dynamic between the short term and the long term deal. really, you don't need that much for the short term deal, but greece probably needs to make some great commitments -- some pre-commitments for the long-term deal. i think the rest of the eurogroup would need to give greece something. less austerity i think is a very crucial part of that. jonathan: are you hopeful for a deal today? guest: hopeful for a deal today, and a nice weekend. jonathan: hoping for a nice
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weekend, aren't we all. nick lkounis, thank you for joining us this morning. let's check on greek markets for you. 10 minutes into the open. trading a little bit higher up by 0.14%. -- by 1.4%. we have seen moves either way. 15 basis points, nothing. look at the overall yield. 16.91%. coming up, we will talk about revenue declines at telecom italia. it is less of a fall than analysts were expecting. more on italy's phone company next. ♪
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jonathan: welcome back. this is "on the move." the u.s. and iraq are planning a spring offensive to retake the city of mosul. the operation would require as many as 25 troops -- 25,000 troops. the battle will mark the first major test for iraqi forces since issa swept across northern iraq last year. according to greek people familiar with the matter, the european central bank is ready to tell greek banks to reduce their holdings of state debt if talks break down. france's economy showing some signs of strengthening. services grew at the strongest pace in more than three years.
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in germany, manufacturing continues growing. pmi beat expectations. later, we will get the eurozone pmi readings. that is just 15 minutes away. let's go to top company stories. telecom italia trying to buy out its media business. bloomberg is reporter manuel joins us now. i went through this statement and saw the top line. sales down. i would see that as some big negative. compared to the year before, it looks beautiful. guest: it is actually pretty good. we are seeing a big turnaround story in telecom italia, one of europe's largest carriers, which came from debris and is now trying to plan its come back. it is actually pretty good news. it is still sales declining, but they are slowing down that decline. jonathan: looking at the bright
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side of life telecom italia's role in this consolidation what is their role right now? guest: they are going to streamline the business, to improve their main market and then see what they can do as the bigger carriers telefonica, orange, though check telecom -- deutsche telekom. it is going to take place at some point. it remains to see how strong telecom italia will be. the biggest market is brazil. that is the second-biggest market for telecom italia. that is where they will have to answer some questions. jonathan: let's take it to south america. telecom italia operating down in brazil. what is the story there? guest: telecom italia owns the second largest wireless operator there.
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they, being under consolidation talks for about two years. everybody is waiting to see when that is going to happen. telecom italia was coming from a very weak position, now they are stronger and they want to play a bigger role in that consolidation. there's been talks about a possible merger with oi another big operator in brazil, but whether telefonica and the other big operators will allow that to happen remains to be seen. jonathan: if that deal happens manuel will be sitting right next to me, bringing that news. a quick check on the greek markets. equities trading a little bit higher. up by over 1%. the greek three-year note trading down by over 31 basis points. that is still a pretty hefty
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the nikkei trading at a 15-year high. the dax closed at a record high yesterday. check out the ftse, also breaking through an all-time record. all of this despite the uncertainty surrounding greek debt talks. let's bring in simon. great to have you with us. i'm looking at the equity markets. i look at the credit markets. tells me a similar story. greece, who cares? should we care? guest: we should care. we have a low level of yields. investors need to take anything they can. there's a lot of cash chasing a few number of assets. we've got corporate credit spreads trading around all-time highs. we have equities tasting all-time highs ahead of what could be a volatile weekend. jonathan: let's look at european credit versus sovereign debt. what does it tell you? guest: you can look at the chart
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and see that back in 2011-2012, when greece and the eurozone peripherals questions were being raised, you have the height of the crisis in 2008, this is the investment-grade index spread for the bank of america merrill lynch index. it is telling us that we are not pricing in any risk of capitulation or sale of risk assets at this stage. jonathan: it is also telling me that corporates can borrow pretty tight levels, almost the same as the sovereign. guest: in fact, you can get corporates that are trading on a negative yield. it is a boom for a treasurer at this stage. it is an issuer's market rather than a buyers market. jonathan: let's strip out the noise. on the surface, that is ridiculous. then i look at the amount of central-bank easing. where else is there to go?
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the ecb is coming into the market. i'm going to be pushed out. maybe i have to take these yields and swallow my pride. guest: that is the point. you are getting into this crowding out mentality on the back of ecb qe. we are going to have another tightening on euro credit. there is an argument for higher trades in dollar and sterling. ahead of that ecb qe, maybe it is early to be looking at that. yes you are getting into an environment where capital preservation is increasingly on people's radar, not because we are expecting huge default rates, but ahead of all the volatility and the question marks around grexit. they are very happy to take that low level of yield on a top-rated corporate. you are floating negative yields. jonathan: just a final question. where should that chart beat trending in your mind to really
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price in the risks associated with greece? guest: i think it is the back end of the curve that is going to underperform. one of the key points now is that greece and peripheral eurozone risk has been taken off the private sector balance sheet and put on the public sector balance sheet. the exposure to other eurozone countries is fairly limited. s&p said there should be limited ratings implications of a grexit. you are looking at something in the 125-150 if it kicks off. i head of qe, we are going to edge tighter still. jonathan: simon of "the first word." "the pulse" begins in five minutes time. francine is with us now. francine: it is all about grace. we are going to continue that with a panel. we will be talking to the chief economist of unicredit and
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asking that very question, why the markets are higher. that and we speak to a former fed governor. jonathan: looking forward to that. as we had to the break, let's check in on euro-sterling. euro-sterling setting a fresh seven-year low. there it is down by 0.1%. the ftse 100, we are higher by just 2.5 points. the dax, 0.2% lower, coming off that all-time high. the cac 40 over in paris also trading lower into those key talks in brussels. they made a compromise. it wasn't enough. it got a little ugly. we will talk about that later in the morning. if you want to consider the conversation, you can follow me on twitter. good luck for the rest of your day. i hope the sun comes out in london. ♪
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francine: on the brink in brussels. europe's finance ministers meet for the second time this week. praise and germany continue their standoff. the ukraine truce tested. a rebel offensive takes the strategic town of debaltseve. capturing the chinese consumer. london fashion week celebrates the year of the sheet as luxury companies try to win over shoppers. welcome to "the pulse" live from london.
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