>> i am mark halperin. >> and i am john heilemann. with all respect to kim jong-un, we are going to take a little off the top. happy national cherry pie day. marco polo, catch me if you grant. but first, hillary clinton and chris christie need some help turning the page. donations to a family foundation from a foreign government and companies she promoted as

secretary of state. donors and accusations that chris christie gets high on his own fumes. a way to change their storylines? >> it will be hard for clinton to do it. investigative reporters are digging deep. her operation is not responding. it will be hard for her to turn the page. chris christie has more chance. he is going to unveil a budget. he will speak at cpac. i think he is coming to the realization that he is going to have to fight for the nomination. >> on the chris christie thing there is a lot of momentum. a lot of people believe in these key operatives. i think he has to take questions. that is key. he has to take questions. >> a town hall on wednesday in new jersey. >> that will help.

he has to take questions. he has to answer questions. >> what is hillary clinton have to do? >> i don't know. beyond becoming a candidate or getting out and engaging with voters, doing something that makes people take notice that she's behaving in a different way. launching her campaign. >> some stories, by not responding it is suggesting that the clintons have a lot to hide. >> there is a story in the new york times that she has hired a firm. not a great story. it feeds the narrative that they are scrambling. >> some public events coming up. she is giving a talk at a tech conference in california. >> those things -- >> i agree.

marco rubio, this guy is having a week. his book tour is going well. his response to rudy giuliani's line was boffo. >> that was really boffo. >> is senator rubio in the upper most here of presidential candidates? >> he is pushing up against it. you hear it from those people in iowa, new hampshire, and north carolina saying that we have our eye on marco rubio. he is the one who could possibly stay in a position to seize that generational thing.

i am young. i'm dynamic. i'm a great communicator. >> be in control of your public image. right now, he is even more than jeb bush in control. a young guy, but a member of foreign relations. an outspoken critic of the administration. he's going to have an opportunity as the member of the senate on foreign relations to participate in a big way on the debate about an authorization against isis. the book has helped him. he is having a good week. one last thing, the conventional wisdom that jim bush won't run and marco rubio won't run, that's a huge hurdle for him to get over. >> i think they will give him a look in the same way that they are giving scott walker a look. the rudy giuliani responses really strong. he didn't earlier in the week,

when chris christie and rand paul spoke on that issue. he came down strong. those are strong politically and personally. >> what he is done is not just make it about being young. he is made it about being a player in the national discussion. >> truth to power. >> the book to her has done a very good job. you're not seeing a lot of national coverage. he is having success in the early states. >> lindsey graham might run for president. he is in iowa and talking about staffing up. if it does happen, lindsey graham will be south carolina's favorite song. well that make the state loses

traditional bellwether status? >> very rare for a favorite sun to run. i admit to being surprised about how serious senator graham seems to be. it's not clear what would happen to south carolina. he could certainly ruin the primary, which would have huge implications for a lot of these candidates who expect south carolina to be the big opportunity. >> again, for the few viewers that know this, south carolina has been the most reliable predictor for republican nomination winners in the modern era. it would be interesting if it happens again this time. the gingrich when did a lot to take the steam out of south carolina. if they were devalued this time, it would hurt. >> it will be of the early states about.

>> you have to look at florida. >> these other southern states deserve a big place. in the end, senator graham will not be a candidate. the more he is out there, the more series he is, the more likely that the primary does not have a place in the process. >> he says he wants to run as a foreign-policy candidate. they tend to go around and make noise, promote their vision, and when he gets down to it, pull away and not go through what you have to go through to be a candidate. >> who would you say is the strongest candidate in south carolina? >> i don't know. >> wide open. rick perry. >> rick perry? mike huckabee might be in a group. >> president obama drop by and gave a pep talk.

>> i'm telling you democrats, we should never worry about fighting for these issues. they are not only right, the american people stand beside us on most of those issues. looking backward is not the answer. we have to look forward. all of us as americans. democrats, we have to be the party that recognizes and response to what americans really faced in the 21st century economy. >> no hillary clinton at that meeting, but the chair woman of the party, debi wasserman, was there. she offered to switch her position on medical marijuana. the story is "outrageous." who cares? seriously. what role does the dnc play right now given that hillary clinton did not go to the

meeting. >> the answer is a lot fewer people care then used to care. a large part of the reason is that guy we just talking. over the last six years, there has not been a president we can think of that has cared less about the party apparatus and structure than barack obama. he has done almost nothing to strengthen the dnc. it has been -- left it as a withered institution. >> compared to the rnc. they had built the party up. the conventional wisdom is the clintons will build their own machine. i really do think if you're looking at the balance sheet for the two parties, the decline of the dnc is because of president obama. it gives the republican nominee

a real leg up with an operation that will raise big money and that will be focused on the kind of party building activities of both parties care about. >> we will see after the show airs the result of the dnc's autopsy of the midterm elections. i will be interested to see whether that is a substantial document. whether that's a serious document or not. coming up, oddsmaker for the oscars. then, our own game of operation. we will be right back. ♪

>> i ain't no ray parker junior. who you going to call? will leech. he is our expert.

thank you for joining us. you have a piece that way are -- we are cribbing off of. the best picture nominees, the three front runners. your third most likely, american sniper. we will talk about that cinema. >> you don't think that you might have seen things or done something's over there that you wish you hadn't? >> that's not me, no. >> what is not you? >> i was just trying to protect my guys. they were trying to kill her soldiers. i am willing to meet my creator and answer for every shot i took. >> we know they like movies or movies that are made in an innovative way. they don't necessary like locke was just. -- necessarily like blockbusters. >> the going to give us something that makes more money than anyone expected.

it has the prestige. clint eastwood directed. a lot of people did not know this movie was going to come out this year. it came at the end. critics were positive, but maybe a little lukewarm about it. audiences embraced it in a way that i think gives it the dark horse quality. i don't think it will win, but it made enough of a late charge to consider. >> it is a conservative movie. it is a patriotic, right down the middle, american flag wrapped movie. how much does that heard it with liberal hollywood? >> i think that's it a little overstated. you've always seeing that clint eastwood's movies are not necessarily conservative, but appeal to an older environment a large percentage -- an older

voting block. i think the liberal hollywood idea, the output of movies, the more independent trustee's movies, i think that's the case but when it comes to the voting block, they are a little bit more conservative than people give them credit for. the issue of this movie, what will hurt it, is that it is polarizing. particularly people that are liberal tend to not like this movie. i think that is not the best take on it, but it will hurt it. >> i saw this movie. i was surprised by the notion that it is a pro-war movie. he suffers from ptsd. it is not strike me as a right-wing movie, but it was very polarizing. >> one thing will hurt it is that bradley cooper, who has been given such praise -- if this were a breakout, new

performance. he has had his chance. besides being polarizing, it's good. the other two will be considered great films. >> that's right. let me turn to your second most likely pick. you can tell us what the odds -- but word man. >> you guys can crank out any thing and they will see it while you are gone. i will be on that stage, earning my living, bearing my soul wrestling with complex human emotions. >> that's an incredible scene, one of many in this movie, at norton lighting up the screen with michael keaton. -- ed norton lighting up the screen with michael keaton. this is about theater, film star, talk about that, and what

your actual odds are for this movie winning best picture. >> one month ago, no one thought bird man had much of a chance, and it made a run. it won the producers guild lord. that is a good indicator of what's going to win best picture. actors are the largest voting branch of the academy. this movie is not only about hollywood, it's about the anxieties and insecurities of working in hollywood. the main character is not washed up, but an older superhero actor, much like michael keaton himself, but he wants to make a big, grand artistic statement on broadway. the director may very well win best erector. this is his big grand, artistic statement. it was shot to look like there were in the film. it is definitely about

hollywood. the oscars love movies about hollywood. about hollywood saving the world. i gave this to-one odds. i am low to be honest. it has been a late charge for bird man. a lot of people think it has overtaken boyhood, but i think it will be close. as good as it is, a lot of people don't like it as well. of the three main movies there's one movie, boyhood, that has the fewest people that actively dislike it. there are many people who actively dislike bird man. >> i saw this movie. it does not have a great third act. the first two acts were as exciting to watch as anything. performances were incredible. the technical sophistication -- i was blown away for the first hour and a half. i thought it was fantastic.

>> we will talk about boyhood now, but just to bridge that the performances in boyhood are distinctive because you have some amateurs. this film features strong performances from professional actors galore. michael keaton got a lot of attention. but edward norton, superstrong. let's look at the film that i said to myself, this film will win the academy award. i still think it's the case. one last clip. >> you know what i'm realizing in my life, is going to go like that? milestones, memories, getting divorced, the time we thought you were dyslexic, when i tell you how to write a bike, getting divorced, again didn't get my masters degree, sending you off to college. you know what is next?

it is my -- funeral. >> an incredible piece of filmmaking. i thought it was going to win from the beginning. they have blown it by not running a good oscar campaign. what are they done wrong? >> it's the best reviewed film of the year. you're right, a lot of people -- it's definitely the film that in 20 years is the movie they will still be talking about. there is this strange sense that somehow richard linkletter made it up as he went along. i've heard people say, listen, if you take the chemical way it's not that great at all. if you take away the chicken from kentucky fried chicken, you don't have any food. one of the great things about the movie is something that hurts it with voters.

people haven't seen it, they think it's much more big and dramatic. when people hear about this well reviewed movie, they expect this huge, dramatic, overarching moment. one of the reasons the movie is a great is because it is quiet the accumulation of experiences in life rather than dramatic moments. that clip is one of the more dramatic moments in the movie. that's part of the reason that it has lost a little bit of steam to bird man, but you still get a sense that it will hang in there. >> thank you. when we come back, remember remember, president's day week time after time. our week in review is up next. ♪

>> professor long in the kitchen with a knife. >> that sounds like a familiar scenario. you're right. you win. what a week at bloomberg politics. that was that time we wished roger goodell a happy 56 birthday, a time of play in the snow, that time filled rap to the millennial's. >> are you thinking out of -- of dropping out of college? >> this, that, or the other thing? >> i have to agree with mark. >> that time we asked the tough questions. >> why are you resisting in particular? >> the time our show went to the dogs. >> if you want to campaign, you need a dog. >> colonel huckabee, the

charleston courier, professor bush, the iowa state fair, and the weapon is -- >> the time i almost killed john playing operation. >> the time we asked art laffer about the dinner he had with scott walker. >> it was a little under done, but that's i like it. >> do you think the north koreans will hack us because of that. >> i don't care. i have nothing to hide. ♪

>> on this, the 10th anniversary of the death of gonzo journalism, hunter s thompson, we remember him the way he would want us to buy watching his ashes get shot into the sky with fireworks. >> red, white, blue. >> we are live 24/7 on bloomberg politics.com. >> a great story on bloomberg politics.com now about jeb bush saying he does not plan to give a speech at the big cpac, but do q&a, where he has excelled so far in this companion. an interesting choice. >> certainly better than the prepared speeches he has been giving off the teleprompters. >> we will be back with a full slate of shows next week. >> we are going to cpac? >> up next is taking stock. have a great weekend. enjoy the oscars. ♪

>> hello, i'm pimm fox, and this is what i'm taking stock of for this friday, february 20 2015. there is a deal with greece that will keep aid flowing. it is designed to buy time to work out a longer financial solution. >> we genuinely and faithfully targeted one objective. that was the interests of the other europeans. we believe the agreement that we reached through this places the interests of europeans above all of us. >> moo