♪ >> racing to reform. the greek prime minister. we are live in berlin and aston. >> a deal in a purchase valued at $14.5 billion. the hsbc under fire. a political storm surrounding it with unit. we will tell you what is at stake.

hello, and welcome to countdown. i am mark barton. >> i and anna edwards. >> and i and manus cranny. >> "birdman" suite the authors with best actor best director, and best cinematography. you can find more on this story at bloomberg.com. >> ok, we are getting some breaking news. the swiss half and they gave numbers and they deliver their news today. obviously, the report in swiss and that comes in lower than the market had estimated at 1.3 swiss franc, below the forecast of 1.4. in terms of how the business is going to perform, the volume

will rise in all regions. last week, they put a clear target on that. there is a rise between 2% and 5%. now, when it comes to the fourth order, specifically the fourth quarter, sales missed estimates four point 97, but on an actual operating profit, we had a. -- eight beat. this was forecast by bloomberg. a rise in all regions. this was company, let's just see if they day on the swiss franc, and we will keep an eye on that. the ceo of the new merged company, 6.5 billion euros worth of assets couple of weeks ago. no news yet.

share buybacks and capital rewards to shareholders. what let's get back to our greek story. feeling the pressure to meet the monday deadline to come up with reforms that satisfy both the demand of its euro area creditors and the anti-austerity party at home. the prime minister and the finance minister have until tonight to work out the details of a deal agreed with euro area finance ministers on friday. hans nichols joins us for more on today's high-stakes negotiations. good morning. another day, another deadline. greg that is one way to put it. we had a late friday night, but the drama is not over. by tonight they have to submit a specific list to creditors and how will this wear what they told their own voters and promises they have made -- how

will they square what they told their own voters in the promises they have made their creditors. they will be pouring over the list in brussels and madrid and here in orlando. >> we are in the process of compiling the list that we promised the institutions and our partners. it will be cemented in good time for them to have as much time as possible or them to assess it and we are pretty confident -- actually, we are very confident that that list is going to be approved by the institution and therefore embarking upon a new phase. >> now, the germans certainly walked away from that meeting in brussels they had gotten important concessions. the greek prime minister said the greeks will have a time explaining this to their voters. i am interested to hear what air has to say from aspen few minute about what the political situation in life there.

i know have to have a primary budget surplus. it is 4.5% next year, but they did give up most 11 billion euros that was in a bank a lot package, because thanks are in a better position. they will not have access to that funding so there is the approval and the conference call on tuesday morning. >> we will be out in athens in just a moment, and as these that, the greek prime minister it has been characterized as such for many weeks some of that the germans were pushing hardest, was he really is greeks had faith in brussels? >> he had an important enforcer and perhaps a more important in forcing, the spanish minister and he was pushing for this idea that there needs to be validation so this is according to people familiar with that meeting, and here is what happened.

they wanted to have another meeting to validate what grief submits. that was voted down. that did not pass, and then the spanish minister said wait a second. we need to hold their feet to the fire, and that is how they came up with this idea of a conference call. clearly, the government doesn't want to give any idea, any notion that you can go ahead and we can austerity, and if you did cut and stared to deal, you should be thrown out by your voters and they are dealing with it in madrid. >> thank you very much. our correspondent hans nichols in berlin. greg bloomberg's erik schatzker good morning. what seems to be the thought in athens today? >> good morning. the reaction here, better, quite honestly, than i anticipated. we arrived in athens yesterday, and i thought we would your cries of betrayal given what we

know to be true. we know they were able to win very little concessions would be group that went to the 11th hour on friday, and though you might anticipate, of course, the three the party and government -- the party in charge of the government they might be feeling, as i said, betrayal that the promises are unfulfilled. yet, it takes so little to make progress in this country. it is difficult to under and from the outside just how tough the terms of a rarity had in greece. terms of austerity perhaps more so with terms of inflated mid. that is what the greek people feel, and that is why concessions like no longer using detroit to come aboard level like no longer feeling -- referring to a professional program, some feel that the

prime minister and others have actually made it stand to progress even if on paper there is very little to show for it. >> and what are these can turns around the proposal that the finance minister will submit today? >> well, the concerns have more to do with the right to. i am going to continue calling them the troika because it is easier than saying the imf the the, and others. whether they are too vague, that is the main concern. clearly, they want to put off as long as possible the hard work, the number crunching that is going to be required to renegotiate the bailout agreement to the satisfaction of the euro route, but they have to put something on paper now that lends confidence to the idea that they are compared to undertake reforms and that they are prepared to cut spending in

a way that meets demand of the eurogroup and that demonstrate that grief is committed to the terms of the bailout and to the spirit of the riemann that was on friday. >> thanks a lot for now. erik schatzker in athens today. >> hsbc reports is 2014 fourth-quarter earnings, an analyst expects profits to drop. it is struggling to contain a political storm involving this with unit's involvement in tax evasion. hsbc confirms bonuses held in a swiss account while paying taxes in hong kong and the u.k.. in response to the report from the guardian newspaper well -- >> they did not accuse gulliver of wrongdoing but highlight of the accounts just a week after he apologized in a full-page ad in british newspapers about how

the hsbc's with unit handle this in past years. >> meanwhile, the chief secretary called for a new criminal offense to be created to deal with individual who are involved with tax evasion. he spoke to the bbc. >> we should have a new offense of corporate failure to avoid preventing this, and also the organization to facilitate evasion or who encourage evasion should face the same level of financial penalty as the invaders themselves the creating a much stronger incentive for companies helping people to do that. >> we will bring you more on this story throughout the morning, and come up with some of the hsbc fourth order earnings are due out at 8:15 this morning, and we will hear from other u.k. banks later in the week rbs and others, and they will all be reporting. >> now all eyes were on the

london fashion week, and we kept up with philip green behind the scenes at the show and asked how these sale is coming along and what is next for his crown jewel, top shop. >> first, bloomberg. >> i would say no disasters. >> you put it for sale five weeks ago. how is it going? >> i will let you know to mark >> when. anything else up for sale? top shop seems to be the real standout. >> it is a combination. we have got so much going everywhere, i need to freeze some of my time. really there are a lot of things that we are doing that

the delivery attention, and the level of travel this year. >> gave me a sense. will it be dude in the next couple of months, in general? are people going to be were cautious? >> who knows? we take it day by day. as a retailer. i am not in the clairvoyant business. we will figure it out as we go. that's the top shop valuation, the last time you sold something, it was 25%, and you had expansion. you have grown so much. do you have a figure in mind? >> a lot of good things happening. as i said, i am really excited about of the line work we are doing, three or four new channels, which really look like

we are to gather some real momentum. the franchise is strong. we open our first european store next thursday in amsterdam, and we have got a few others we are looking at. we open, i think, atlanta on march 12, another on the 19th and we have got two or three others. we are sort of thinking about maybe doing something different in japan, so we have got a lot, a lot going on. >> right. the top story on bloomberg. a canadian drugmaker is buying another company where $10.1 billion will be paid in cash and the rest comes from death and cash on hand. the drugmaker is known for taking advantage and acquiring small to midsize companies and then cutting r&d costs to boost profit. the former u.k. secretary has

suspended himself as a member of parliament after the daily telegraph newspaper alleged he made offers in exchange for thousands of pounds. and there was another foreign secretary with hidden cameras, talking about it. both have been referred to a commission of standards, and a full investigation could take months. and just a reminder market in athens are closed today for a bank holiday. the first day of the eastern orthodox his chin length. >> join the conversation on twitter. i have actually tweeted. and to be fair, i did tweet about hsbc. >> i have tweeted another headline, another hsbc tax

story. does that sound like déjà vu? >> and "birdman" win best picture. >> can the greek prime minister have a plan that satisfies both creditors and can to it estimate that is next on countdown. ♪

♪

>> it is time for the new greek government to approve their latest reforms while simultaneously hoping to keep the faith of the electorate who voted against their team. >> i do not think they will scrap it all. we are going to do it our way because we have been doing it our way till now. we never do with ourselves but i think if they go to the eurozone and say that they will roll over again and again and again, they may find a good situation for, a new program. >> athens is full of people like

him, angry about the past, but also looking for greece's future. >> it is not the only hope that we have, but it is the main hope that we have. i believe in a revolution and something for the people. >> it can be hard to understand. during the crumbling, people were forced onto the street. the greek depression is clear to see. while it's leadership are clear underdogs in the eurozone greeks have gotten used to a struggle. >> i am excited. once you touched the ground, you have to go up and you will go up. i am very confident about this. >> looking to change greece or the better, but they risk ending up like governments from the past.

in order to succeed, they must maintain the trust of the people while taking risks with europe. >> the ride mentality and the right -- the right mentality and the right ingredients to do something good for our society what if they are going to do egg in the same things, especially over the last years, it is, you know, it is a really bad situation for us. -- but if they are going to do the same thing it is really a bad situation for us. >> let's get more on what is to come of grief on this special day, and that bring in our next guest, and international cio. nick, great to have you with us. there was that piece from the

people of athens. on change. the world, the market of the world seem really quite like in regard to what is going on. next and i think the markets have the right way. it is a different framework from the first greek crisis of 2012 though you have now gotten much worse knowledge banks in the eurozone. you have actually got much more solid government, and you look at the spanish and italian yield, so institutionally you're in a very, very diff place. >> think the market are right to not worry too much? what about june? time for this conversation four months in the future? >> you are right. do you remember that old phrase, kicking the can down the road? that is what they are doing again, but the reality is a lot

of negotiations can happen over the next you are or five months and undoubtedly they will. >> within the eurozone, you look at the surprise. for europe, it is going that way. for the u.s., it is going that way. that is thing, isn't it? >> it is, but these are relative surprises. when you look for absolute growth, what you're likely to see is eurozone growth at 1% 1.5%, which is a long way from 0%, and in the u.s., what you're looking at is growth at 2.5% or 3%, so you will still have the u.s. probably growing at double the rate of the eurozone. >> let's talk about the u.s. for a moment. when you go to your bond stories the steepest monthly losses for the u.s. treasury market in five years. janet yellen speaks tomorrow. the treasury market is holding

up for a very, very well be ride. how do you look at the treasury market and the u.s. treasury bond risk? >> you had treasuries at 217. where did they and the year? it is somewhere between 2.5% to 3%. you have to get modest losses on treasuries but we never 2014 some pretty decent gains therefore fixed assets. as the final year to on treasuries is probably wage inflation, but remember, also this year, there is a big journey with treasuries. part of that journey will be inflation. headline inflation this week in the u.s. is likely to be negative. >> a rate increase in june, he gets june is starting to look very busy. that space in june. >> september, december.

think of the context. how can the federal reserve ways interest rates when you have got negative headline inflation to mark that is a stretch -- when you have got negative headline inflation? that is a stretch. >> there was a more dovish federal reserve. does she prepare us to get rid of the word patience and even when we get rid of it, it does not mean that rate hikes are imminent. >> i think that is right. i think the fed has got to get away of these single phrases. still, probably some commentary around the quality of job creation as opposed to the quantity of job creation. yes lots of jobs are being created, but are they really good polity job? arguably not. this is not the message you're

likely to see from janet yellen this week. >> you get to choose which way we go. russia, friday night, or japan where you have got shinzo abe. which is more important for us? >> it is japan. the world economy. it is a test case in how to deal with monetary policy at these very very low rates, so when you look at japan, the risk is that actually they do a lot more. they do a lot more in terms of quantitative easing. they are forced to move their deposit rate negative. >> shinzo abe was basically saying rings are fine. in terms of the currency. that is not the language of moore, is it? >> well, we will see. ultimately, you have to get inflation back at 2%. this is from where inflation is right now, and we do.

>> we get some inflation rates. >> if you think of the differences between the bank of japan in terms of their monetary policy accommodation and the federal reserve about to raise restraint later this year, it is the currency that takes the strain. >> should reread too much into this bloomberg view, the bloomberg report that members of the boj think it is counter productive to raise it further? is that just a red herring? >> well, how then do you practically get inflation back? we are already two years into agbebenomics. when you look at the actual growth rate, the message from other central banks is that actually you have to do more rather than less. >> the dollar/yen at 1.50.

these cio. >> coming up, hsbc releases earnings today. we will have details, next.

♪ >> you are watching countdown this monday morning,: 30 in london, the dollar just up at the moment, and janet yellen, the head of the fed, will testify she has the unemployment data, but what she does not have is inflation data, as our guest just said. you have got the greek situation and mario draghi. these are all of the elements that can make it an interesting week in terms of where the dollar goes. dollar/yen, you have got the yen

rising. this is fairly flat. as far as dollars/yen is concerned, well, you have a number of issues at play. the yen has weakened to a comfortable level, and advisor to shinzo abe, and the bank of japan could hold off on more stimulus. that is the advice that is being given at the moment to shinzo abe. from the j.p. morgan asset management, what our guest just said, they need to be more easing actually come through. keep an eye on the euro/dollar. as i said, you have got a number of different issues. you have got to go data. that is expected to show confidence at a four and month high. -- at a four-month high area standard charter called the euro as the least ugly.

which currency do you want? that seems to be they least ugly of them all, so the euro virtually unchanged at the moment. we will see how that turns out. they may want to consider reigniting short positions. >> the top stories on bloomberg. pro-russian rebels have attack ukrainian positions, killing two people at a rally, according to the defense ministry in kiev. speaking to the bbc, the u.k. house of commons member said russia risks worsening if sanctions if it did not change its behavior. >> there is a huge long-term price for russia with what it is doing, for his country, and you can see this developing even quicker than some of us predicted a year ago. ukraine voted in the elections

so most of the population of ukraine have turned the other way. things will get worse if they do not change their behavior, and nato, as you know with these thomas many nato nations have pledged to increase defense expenditures, so the cost to russia are mounting, and they will go higher. like the russian economy, moody's cut the country's credit rating to junk. they downgraded to the highest junk rate in line with countries including hungary and portugal. rescue efforts are underway in bangladesh after a fairy collapsed northwest of the capital. eight children are dead, and about 30 are missing. the boat flipped over after it was struck by a cargo trawler. and in northeast nigeria, a

female bomber detonated an explosive at a market, and at least 30 were injured but nobody really claim to the attack. >> and in one of our stories, hsbc is under fire for helping some to avoid taxes. bloomberg spoke to a director for his analysis and top tips to manage a crisis. >> the problem for hsbc is it is a bank, and banks are unpopular and have been unpopular since the recession, so there is no quick fix. i am a director of a pr agency working in the financial sector. i have worked in the pr industry now for over 20 years and have been a spokesperson for the u.k. water industry. we worked through 9/11. i think what hsbc has done so

far is what any good business would do in a situation with a solid pr team behind it, which is to take control of the situation, to apologize where it can, but the problem it is facing is this is just running out of its control. now, the politicians are using this as a stick to the one another. whatever hsbc does right now, it will not tear it. there is no silver bullet. step one is usually to isolate the problem as much as possible so this was a lone employee. this was a particular unit. steph two is to prevent it from happening again. so we have put procedures in place so this will never happen again, and step three is to take your pennant be it financial or whatever, and then to go through a rebuilding exercise over the next months. >> and you can find more on that story at bloomberg.com. >> and join us on twitter.

coming up, a tough 24 hours for the greek prime minister. we will get the latest on the greek debt talks. stay tuned for that.

>> these are the u.k. top stories. and election poll leaving for

the first time since 2012, and an opinion poll asked which party they would vote for in the general election if it was held tomorrow, and the results is the conservative party at 35%, labour less. jaguar is recalling some vehicles after finding some passenger-side airbag do not open on impact. the company said it has received no reports of accidents or injuries tied to the problem. car owners will be notified in april and will be able to take their vehicles to dealers for a free software update. rbs will write down the value of its u.s. unit by 4 billion pounds this week, according to a person familiar with the matter. one year earlier than analysts expected to reduce the bank profit, but it will not affect its capital.

>> 6:30 nine in london. last night was the biggest night on the hollywood calendar, and taking the oscar for best picture, best director best screenplay, and directing, "birdman" but did it win on their or big bucks from studio backing? >> i would say the average of the campaign cost $8 million to $10 million. it was reported a few years ago that the average cost of it off their campaign is about twice what it needs. reportedly, the most expensive one was $15 million. grexit it has being show that having an oscar will increase your box office by about $12.7 million area although it is hard

to tell because the oscar-nominated films do tend to be the best films of the year, and better films tend to gross more money. and you can really see that money has made a difference, so the film crash was a real outsider in 2005. and they won. that really helped them, because that made that seen by more people. >> behind this metal and glass. >> for the actresses, it can cost $3000 to $4000 a night, and once duty of spent a lot of money. being a nominee is a lovely experience. you will get a goodie bag, and there are gifts. a medical equipment. trips. but when you win an oscar, one of the terms you have to find onto is you ever want to sell it, you have to give the academy

the option to buy it back for one dollar, and that is to stop the market for people devaluing the market. you can also send your statue back and have it recoded so it looks like new. >> our digital picture time. what better subject to choose than the oscars. it was a runoff, they said, between "birdman" and "boyhood." what did the right one win? >> i have seen the best picture. i went there. i went to the cinema, and i loved it. it is a brilliant film, and it is by -- about a washed up actor played by michael keaton, and it

is essentially about this washed up actor whose mental state deteriorates through the film. it is a wonderful film directed by the man who won best director dan who also got best film, best cinematography, and best original screenplay. but an oscar for everything. and the brick got the best actor for playing stephen hawking in "the theory of everything," and julianne moore got the best actress for "still alice" and patricia arquette got best supporting actress and j.k. won for his portrayal of a man learning to play the drums. i think a half go -- and author

for every thing i think i would have liked michael get best actor. >> and i wonder about be filming in greece. >> looking very trendy in his black jacket. >> and there was a really great piece. who made germany europe's boss and it basically contrast the role -- it is easy to characterize this as a battle of the germans and the greeks. hans nichols was picking up on this earlier. put on the table by the greeks and what they called the dismissal out of hand by the germans, and also it was said that many commentators were surprised by just how seemingly willing germany was about greece leaving if they did not stick to the plan. it is europe's biggest creditor.

there are reasons for germany to shout loud. he said germany can and should leave, but it has no right to dictate, and there are questions there, what he called unenlightened views on debt and deflation, and it was said that europe needs stronger leadership. >> i prefer to go slightly more market street stock markets, $67 trillion last week record being made by the u.s. records we have not seen, so a strong dollar, strong equity markets, and gold traders are reducing their long positions by nearly 20% and this man that you are seeing on your screen, john carlson -- john paulson. what you are seeing is gold last week, $4 billion, and money managers have reduced it.

they are betting on gold rising by the most in 15 weeks and if you want to look at what the negative side are doing, they are backing against them by 44%. we were talking about this, and we will talk about this to one of our guest coming up about commodities. you have got a whole lot of moves in terms of net wedding on the commodity space. that bullish betting is up by 15%. you have to go to the article. >> the best to your for a low energy crisis. that is something we will pick up one of our guests later. >> copper i think is the best performing commodity. >> coming up on the program, it is going to be a tough 24 hours for the greek prime minister as he races to deliver a reform

plan that will satisfy the creditors and his party. we have the latest on the greek debt talks, coming up. ♪

>> let's talk greek markets. the greek prime minister is walking a tight walk as they try to come up with measures to satisfy creditors and his very own anti-austerity party.

we have a strategist who joins us from abu dhabi. a very good morning to you. equity markets seem to be very sanguine about greece's deadline , the end of monday's deadline, to put forward these measures to win this four-month extension. are you as sanguine as the equity investors seem to be? >> yes, good morning, and thank you for having me on your show again. to start with, greece and all of the trouble we have seen, it is the same as five years. the greek exit happening, i don't think so. at some point, they will come up with a deal. but they will lose some of its majority maybe. or his support.

they started to backtrack. we were waiting for germany to backtrack or retreat on the demands, but unfortunately, greece wanted an extension. in terms of the stock market, i am still buying it in europe. the ecb continues to print money, and we will keep line them. >> and do you prefer europe to the u.s.? we have seen a number of headlines in the last week how hedge funds and legendary investors, such as george soros, are moving money from the u.s. to europe and asia. is that something you are doing? >> possibly, yes. the situation in the u.s. is getting even worse either day. if you look at the numbers we have seen for the past, and since the end of qe3 more than 80% of february numbers came in

totally away from the market expectation. one of the things also, the federal reserve will not be able to raise rates, and the fact that orders fell by five months in a row, went back in 2012 if you go back through history, durable goods went down and that sparked qe3 and right now we have even worse than five months in a row. at some point, the federal reserve will backtrack again and keep the rates low. and i am assuming that even if the numbers came in worse, they might start saying about further measures, and don't forget that inflation is still there, so i would prefer to keep buying europe for now and stay with the u.s.. especially right now, where citigroup surprised the most since 2012. >> and if the fed puts back its

first rate hike, does that mean it might be time to start rethinking our u.s. bond strategy? u.s. treasuries in february are on track for their worst month in five years. is it time then to buy u.s. debt is the fed puts back its rate hike? >> well if -- again, the same argument since 2009, if the reserve will raise rates, and if the market continues in the same situation, but the situation in the u.s., everybody should rethink this strategy of the u.s. and the strategy of the federal reserve is up, so continuing with the cheap money or more than seven years, and when the two we stops, it is like we said, once it stops, everyone is dancing. the bond market could be the

same. when you look at the u.s. or across the globe, there are deals almost everywhere, so i think at some point, everybody should think about what is happening, especially in the bond market. 30 basis points away from an inverted yield curve, which means we are talking about a recession being entered very thin, and i think we will enter that recession, that if you also listened to what alan greenspan said over the weekend, we cannot get out of the zero interest rate arora without a recession worse than what happened in 2008. >> you are saying the u.s. will be in recession again. how soon? >> yes, well, how soon? if you look at what happened in q4 and even q1 -- i mean, q4, the estimates were 3.2%. right now, the initial numbers

are 2.6. if you divide all of the numbers it is below the expectation or below the target. that is number one. number two, 88% since the october meeting, since the end of qe, most of the numbers more than 70% of the numbers came in far away from expectations. again, if you look at the numbers, every single qe -- don't forget, the u.s. dollar right now the exports are in a very bad way. the trade balance deficit is the most on record, so at some point i believe the federal reserve will backtrack. they might start talking about it, but how soon will the economy go into recession, i think maybe six months to see some for a confirmation for that. this is possible.

>> ok, thank you for joining us a chief market strategist. >> join all of us on twitter. tell us what you think whether the germans are being too harsh on the greeks and you can visit anna. and the greatest threat since dodd-frank. >> they are saying they are going back into recession. >> yes and the fed is being pressured from the left and the right. countdown continues in the next hour. we have a packed our coming for you, and to kick it off, we will go live to athens and to berlin on this show day for greece. we will speak to someone who says greece has to go out of the eurozone. you will not want to miss that, coming up and stay tuned, that

is coming up on the next hour of the program, and we will bring you the latest on hsbc. the bank gives earnings, and we will have more on that, when we come back. ♪

bikes prime minister tsipris defined financial measures ahead of today's deadline. we are live in berlin and happens. >> the pharma dealmaker acquires a purchase valued at $14.5 billion. >> hsbc reports earnings. we will tell you what is at stake. ♪ hello, welcome to countdown.

>> coming up we are going to speak to somebody who says greece has got to go. you won't want to miss that interview. it is the head of the economic institute. >> let's talk about greece. in athens the greek government feels the pressure to come up with reforms that satisfy demands of euro area creditors and the anti-austerity party at home. the prime minister and his finance minister have until night -- until tonight to work out the details. we are live from germany and also from greece. hans nichols joins us from berlin. let's start with you. what's the timeline we need to be aware of across europe?

it is high-stakes negotiation we have in front of us. >> by no means is it a done deal. tonight we are expecting a specific list from athens. they are going to be sending that to brussels. creditors say they want specifics. all of those finance ministers want to see what happens actually comes up with. what are they going to do on pension reform privatization? the government has already talked about halting the sale. are they going to continue with that? what about the minimum wage. the government plan to go from 680 euros to 750 a month. the new government pledged to rehire 12,000 government workers. it's these kinds of specifics

that are going to be laid out tonight. there is a conference call between the finance leaders, and they basically vote on it. if it doesn't pass muster we have to wait and see what happens next. will there be another meeting? even if it does pass they all have to sell that. they have to pass something but we are all waiting on the list. >> terminate is often portrayed as the eurozone enforcer. was it just germany resting athens on this? was shoulder -- scheuble the most skeptical voice. >> the spanish minister was clearly talking about what could happen in his own country, because there they have the sister party.

if it looks as though spain cut a bad deal that spain didn't get everything they could have out of the eurogroup, they could have a difficult domestic situation on their hands. you are seeing off hard-line not just from the germans and the austrians but the spanish and portuguese. it seems there is a firm block wanting specifics. we are going to get it in a few hours. then there will be the conference call tuesday morning. >> thank you. >> let's get to athens for the take on the ground. what seems to be the reaction from the people in athens? >> the reaction is largely supportive. there is a small faction of members that are concerned the finance minister and alexis tsipras are selling the party

down the river in negotiations with the eurogroup and with respect to the deal that was reached in principle on friday night, but it does appear to be solid. the hard work is being done, which is to say the government is sitting down and trying to draft a list of proposals it can present in hope of winning approval tuesday morning. hans gave us a very good sense of what is on the table. the german newspaper is reporting this is what the greeks are going to offer. they are going to offer $1.5 billion in revenue from illuminating gasoline smuggling 2.5 billion euros and wealth tax and 2.5 billion euros further in collecting tax that is currently unpaid. difficult to know whether that is true and realistic.

at the end of the day it might be immaterial. the greeks need to demonstrate they are willing to put numbers on the table and there is a sense of commitment they are willing to live up to those promises. i want you to listen to the finance ministers speaking and happens yesterday, still putting forward a confident tone about what he can achieve in these negotiations. >> when compiling the list it will be submitted in good time. we are very confident the list is going to be approved by institutions, and we are embarking on a new phase of growth. >> there was a report late yesterday that he had already submitted these proposals to the

european commission, the imf, and the ecb. verify this -- he was up late last night tweeting our reform list is almost ready, but rumors we have dispatched it already to the commission are false. he has not emerged yet today. we are left to assume he is holed up with his advisers finalizing the list of proposals he will be making to the troika now known as the institutions later today. >> what are the concerns that the finance minister will submit today? >> on one hand there is concerned they will not go far enough. as he put it on friday following the announcement of that agreement if greece cannot win

approval with the troika, greece is dead and buried. the future would be sovereign bankruptcy and almost certainly a financial collapse. it is an axis dental situation for greece. -- existential situation for greece. he cannot afford to fail. he still has election promises the prime minister made to the greek people. it does appear the greek people are willing to take very little in the way of progress. that is why it is possible for tsipris to say they had won a battle in this negotiation but had not yet won the war. that is why you hear yanis varoufakis speaking in these terms because he knows any progress represent something completely different than what

people experienced before. >> the hsbc reported their earnings. that is not the banks only problem. it is struggling to attain a political storm involving tax evasion. hsbc confirmed he holds his bonuses in a swiss account while paying his taxes in hong kong and the u.k. in response to report by the guardian newspaper >> the highlighted the swiss accounts just weeks after he apologized in an ad in british newspapers for how hsbc's swiss unit handled accounts for tax invaders and criminals in past years. >> the uk's chief treasury secretary called for a defense to deal with individuals involved in tax evasion.

>> we should create a new offense of corporate failure to avoid preventing an economic crime and also the organizations who facilitate innovation or encourage evasion should face the same level of penalty as the invaders themselves. that way there could be a stronger disincentive to companies helping people do that. >> we will bring you more on this story. hsbc fourth-quarter earnings are due at 8:15 this morning. you're going to hear from other u.k. banks later this week. >> from banks to fashion, all eyes were on the best of british at london fashion week. we caught up with philip green behind the scenes at top shop's catwalk show and asked how the brand is innovating online. >> at the my guys have worked on something special with twitter

which i think is interesting. we have got to keep working hard. we're working hard in different places. it is really working very well. you can't not be in that world. it's a question of hopefully picking the right things. it's not easy. so many things come at you all the time. some you get right. >> what has changed over the last two or three years? >> i think mobile click and collect. there is so much choice for the consumer. interestingly, i had maybe 50 young people 50 or 60 guys in our office. what was interesting is their interest is still to go shopping. they are looking online at where

they want to go, but all the people came, three different groups were excited to come to the stores and see what is going on. i don't think anybody doesn't want to touch or feel -- i still think it is part of the business. >> top stories, the canadian drugmaker valley and is buying the pharmaceuticals company. 10.1 billion will be paid in cash. valley and -- valeant is known for taking advantage of the tax rate. jack straw suspended himself as a member of parliament after the daily telegraph alleged he offered access to diplomats and exchange for thousands of pounds.

another foreign secretary were filmed with hidden cameras talking about their offering. a full investigation could take months. markets in athens are closed today for a bank holiday. it is the first day of eastern orthodox christian lent. >> you can join in the conversation on twitter. don't forget the tv part. >> it does matter. i decided to just use my name. >> someone has taken my name. >> a deal was struck on friday with some uncertainties surrounding the future of greece.

are the markets concerned? we will discuss the impact, coming up next.

>> greece's new government is waiting for eurozone bosses to approve reforms while keeping the electorate against austerity. here is the mood in athens. >> i don't believe they are going to scrap the debt and they

are going to say, we are going to do it our way. we never do it our way. from 97 until now we never do it ourselves. i think if they go to eurozone to become france or germany and say, we can do it over and over again. maybe we are going to find a good situation for us like a program or something they are going to hold for us. >> athens is full of people angry with the ruling elites of our past but hopeful about greece's future. >> it's not the only hope we have, but it's the main hope we have. i believe in revolution.

i believe maybe they gave something to the people. >> it can be hard to understand. buildings are crumbling. people are forced onto the streets. recent depression is clear to see. while its new leadership are clear underdogs in the battle with the eurozone, greeks have gotten used to the struggle. >> i'm excited. once you touch the ground you have to go up, and you will go up. >> they promised to change greece for the better, but they risk ending up like governments in the past. in order to succeed they must maintain the trust of the people while taking risks in europe. the right ingredients to start to do something good for our society.

if they are going to do the same thing with new democracy it's a really bad situation for us. >> this surprised many with the growing support. perhaps the party can surprise its people. >> last week european stocks closed at their highest level since november, 2007. will their momentum continue? thank you very much for coming in. our equities right to shrug off what is happening around greece for now? >> i think the situation is such that we should question whether greece has the power to disrupt the equity market because there are powerful forces, and we are seeing huge moves for the tailwinds. we're seeing the u.s. dollar as

well as the low oil price. now the question in the future is will we have more ambiguity on that. the ambiguity may not come from greece. it may come from the fed, but i don't believe greece will have the power to disrupt the market. we may have a rally based on compromise. we will find a way through. >> one thing that caught my eye was you shifted your call in commodities. we talked about a strong dollar. you shifted in your commodity view. you have gone to overweight. are you contrary in? >> in some ways. we are seeing the weather coming back and giving a lift in energy, but it's also the fact that in the short term the euro

may be on the floor, and the false may come into commodities. we don't talk anymore about deflationary sales as far as i know. the economy is recovering. look at europe. look at retail sales. look at consumer spending. this is going on. it might be good because the emerging market will continue. >> break it down for us. which part of the commodities spectrum should we be buying? >> energy is a major leader in the commodities spectrum. the base metal should be supported. the precious metals are in a no-fly zone. this is mainly the energy that should drive commodity prices. agriculture is more non-croley

did -- north -- more non-: rated. -- non-correlated. it is such a low yield. you need to have something new. besides that we remain overweight equities. you need to play things in a different manner. >> stay with us. more with him when we come back. 22 minutes past seven here in london this monday morning.

>> welcome back. we were talking about the various asset classes you are interested in. you have upgraded your exposure to consumer discretionary cyclical products. why is that? where in the world is that? >> if you look at europe it's probably the area where consumer discretionary will benefit the most from the low euro. also the luxury has been falling very dramatically last year. and maybe a turnaround because the company are just adjusting. they are revising the market segment so it's not the end of the luxury market. also brands in the u.s., the brand companies will benefit from the fact that they are

backing it. this is something we enjoy very much. >> he worked me up and said it. you have an interesting call. >> it is not as high. there is still an ambiguity with the federal reserve messaging. they seem to normalize. they are not imitating european central banks. one day they have to adjust their own reality. this will probably be the year. that's why the march meeting is so important. 3% looks a bit aggressive. there are still powerful forces to buy quality bonds all over the place. >> we are going to have to draw the line.

great to have you with us. >> coming up, pro-russian rebels continue attacks in eastern ukraine. we will bring you the latest as more sanctions against russia are on the line. stick around. ♪

>> it is 7:30 in london. the devil will be in the details of what the greeks say they are prepared to do to get the bailout funds. it needs to be ratified. they have got to agree with what the greeks actually put in front of them. you are going to get the confidence index out of germany. overnight reports say this is

the least ugly contest. the national australia bank says you could see the euro drift a little bit higher. you may want to reconsider reentering a short position according to national australia bank. looking at the yen this is where it becomes a little more interesting. you have a slight turnaround. we saw the yen originally strengthening. one of the key advisors -- weaknesses that a comfortable level for the dollar yen. the bank of japan could hold off on stimulus at the moment. we just heard from jpmorgan

asset management that more stimulus has to come. back to you. >> the top story this hour. a pro ukraine rally in the eastern city. the u.k. house of commons leader william hague said russia risks worsening its sanctions if it didn't change its behavior. >> there is a huge long-term price for russia. you can see that developing even quicker than was predicted a year ago. the population has been turned the other way. sanctions will get worse if they

don't change their behavior. nato has a summit. many nations plan to increase their expenditure. the cost to russia are mounting and are getting higher. >> moody's cut the countries credit rating to junk. the credit rating downgraded russia one level to the highest junk grade. rescue efforts are underway in bangladesh after a ferry capsized on the river northwest of the capital. a children are dead and about 30 people are missing according to the deputy -- eight children are dead and about 30 people are missing according to the deputy minister. the boat tipped over after it was struck. a suicide attack in northeast nigeria killed at least seven people according to police. a female bomber detonated the explosives with a mobile phone. at least 30 injured.

no one originally claimed responsibility. >> talks between euro members. talks will be expended -- extended pending the troika. it is a positive step for greece but not out of the woods yet according to our next guest. the head of the g 10 foreign exchange strategy. great to have you with us. it looks as if the piece i just did -- it rallied. greece is going to deliver structural reform today. you wanted to resell as you go into this strength. >> the market has been responding, but clearly an

agreement will be reached. they might be right, but i think we're going to see more volatility ahead. they have agreed on the roadmap for negotiations. this is far from over. >> there are a lot of maps. how much detail do we need to be aware of? what is likely to be the flashpoint in today's negotiation? >> the government's proposal for reforms is the next step. the government already said they agree with two thirds of the reforms already in the program. it will be reviewed by the european commission and the imf. they will provide their opinion to the eurogroup, and hopefully we have a decision before the end of this week. >> there will

be institutions. >> will cerise as a party stomach it? one of my guests made the call that the party would fall apart. is that playing out right now? >> this was the risk. they have expressed disappointment. although the syriza led government would not be able to deliver some of the promises for austerity it's up to them to keep greece and the eurozone and to reform the country. if they do these things, i think it could upset the fact they have not been able to deliver other things because of pressures from the rest of europe. >> we have got sterling moving.

we have a good set of data in the united kingdom. friday we are going up with the election. you are almost at a seven year low against the pound on friday. where are we between now and the election for positioning, and how do we look at a u.k.? >> this has been a high year. it has done quite well so far. volatility is still steep compared with other currencies. when we look at evidence, volatility always increases before the elections. who knows what is going to happen? very difficult negotiations for the coalition afterwards. >> there could be uncertainty. in very simple terms, what looks good for sterling in terms of coalition building and what looks bad? is it possible to make simple

assumptions about what sent the pound higher and what sends the pound lower right now? >> it's hard to tell because historically this is good for sterling. this time it decreases the probability. this is why we don't have a strong conviction of the direction but we have a strong conviction of buying volatility. >> the fed chair testifying in the semi annual address to congress tomorrow and on wednesday. the dollar reached its all-time high. it hovered below those highs. what is going to make it break new ground? >> i think for the next few months most likely the next big trend is not with the dollar. having said that, ms. yellin might be more optimistic tomorrow compared to the relatively dovish minutes last week. i think the testimony will be

more consistent with the statement. looking forward, i think we have to be more tactical. the market is already long dollar. there are other opportunities. the oil prices have stabilized. in terms of the dollar, we believe there is room for the canadian dollar to weaken. >> do you think interest rates will go higher in the u.s. in the summer, later in the year not at all? >> there is a risk it might be lower. the fed has been ignoring inflation expectations. however they suggest looking forward there may be more concern about it. >> it would be interesting to get all the risks around the markets. >> 7:30 nine in london. you can join in the conversations on twitter. that is where you will find us

if you want to engage in conversation. >> do engage. engage is good on a monday. up next it's our chart time. will the russian ruble rebound last? ♪

>> welcome back. will the russian ruble's rebound last?

it has been quite a rebound. the ruble has risen 12% against the dollar. it's on track for its best month ever. since the ruble closed at a record low against the dollar at 6946, that was january 30. f the yellow circle. it rebounds at 12%. this is dollar ruble. the dollar rising. the dollar has been falling. the ruble has been rising. this is a closing basis. the record low actually happened on december 16 when the dollar reached 79 point 16 after the russian central bank raised rates to 17%. since then the ruble has rebounded a 24%. one man is unimpressed i the rebound. he is an analyst. he says the ruble may reach fresh lows this corridor as the

plunge in oil threatens its investment-grade rating and turns russians away from the currency. he said the comments just before on friday we had moody's cut. russia's investment grade to junk. it is worth listening to because it topped bloomberg's ranking of foreign exchange analyst through december last year. it predicts the ruble will average 77-79 in the first quarter of this year from a level of 63 today. that call is more bearish than the 67.5 forecast of analysts surveyed by bloomberg. according to analysts, the second quarter is going to be the low for the ruble this year with the medium forecast of 68. credit suisse is the most bearish with the prediction of 83.3.

the most bullish is 53.1674 forecast. the auction data shows a 35% probability of the russian currencies setting a new all-time low by march 31. while we acknowledge the ruble has rebounded in february, it's on 43% against the dollar in the last 12 months. -- it sunk 43% against the dollar in the last 12 months. that's the second worst of those we tracked after the ukrainian currency. will the russian ruble rebound last? >> these are some of the top stories. u.k. prime minister david cameron's conservative party leads its rivals for the first time since 2012. an opinion poll asks which party they would vote for if the general election was held

tomorrow. results at 35%. jaguar land rover is recalling vehicles after finding some passenger-side airbags do not open on impact. the company says it has received no reports of accidents or injuries. car owners will be notified and will be able to go to dealers for a free software update. >> let's turn to europe now. grecian negotiate an orderly exit from the euro. that's according to -- greece should negotiate an orderly exit from the euro. that's according to our next guest. thank you for joining us. an orderly exit from the euro is what you would propose. would an orderly exit the possible? >> everything is possible in

this world in particular. private investors have been able to escape. greece has received two hundred 63 billion euros of public credit, which was 143% of gdp. about half of that money was used to pay back loans by foreign investors. they are saved. if greece exits there won't be a contagion to the capital market. the greek spreads went up. no one else is impressed by that. >> all the spreads show people don't think reese will leave. how can you be sure your interpretation is correct? >> it's very clear. the spreads or 10%. the market expects greece to default but no one else. usually the other spreads will also go up but this time not. the markets clearly isolate greece from the rest. we have rescue packages for the

rest. the contagion via the capital markets is not there. why should greece leave? i think it should leave for the benefit of the population. five years ago the rate of unemployment was half of what it is now. during that time since public credit from other countries increased there was so much help austerity mitigation, austerity coming from markets was mitigated by other european countries which finance greece, and it didn't help. the finance minister of greece is perfectly right when he says this approach has not help the people. i think it's time to think about more fundamental solutions.

what's the problem with greece? >> sorry to interrupt. another fundamental reassessment or solution could be forgiveness of more of the debt. i know the prime minister likes to talk about periods of german history and europe were german debts are being forgiven and likes to draw parallels between them. is there any appetite for enjoying that parallel with germany? >> of course there is a parallel. in 1920 220% of gdp in germany including marshall aid, which was 5% of gdp. we are speaking about 143% of public credit given to greece. the haircut alone at the expense of public creditors that took place in 2012 was worth 43 billion euros, which is 20%.

they received the haircut similar to the london debt agreement, and they need much more. i am in favor of those who say let cap the greek debt to a considerable extent, but as always when a country goes bankrupt you need to do something to make it competitive. think of the asian crisis. when all these countries went bust after they devalued and the devaluation was the recipe for recovery. >> what do people make of an institution, if that is what you can call the euro? if there is a revolving door that perhaps let them back in again. what does that do to the euro? doesn't make it stronger or weaker if that is allowed to happen? >> i think politically stronger because we try to keep something together, which cannot stay together in the way it is.

greece is not competitive. and this inflationary level they lost their competitiveness. we know the interest rates went down from 25% down to 5% when greece entered the euro. this was tempting for the government to borrow to employ more government employees. the old economy began to live on foreign resources, on private credit. it is simply too expensive. they have to come down to a competitive level. no country can be competitive if the wages are higher than productivity allows. that's a problem. you cannot cut the wages inside the currency because then you have to fight against the union. then you have problems driving people into bankruptcy who have debt obligations. the only way of doing it is moving to another currency d

evaluating and then begin anew. i would say they could return after a couple years to the euro. i see the exit is a temporary exit. after hospitalization, they could return and be a functioning member of the currency union. >>, to appetite do you think there is in berlin? -- how much appetite do you think there is in berlin? is there really appetite amongst those in government in berlin to allow parts of the eurozone to leave? >> no, there is no appetite. part of the problem being they don't want the haircut. it is much easier to give new loans and kicked the can down the road. on the other hand, the people in

the german government are beginning to see their approach to solving the problem is not really working. the mood is changing. >> thank you for joining us. >> another of our top stories, hsbc is under fire for helping customers avoid taxes. bloomberg spoke to the director for his analysis. >> the problem for hsbc is it is a bank and banks have been unpopular since recession. we are looking years into the future and are rebuilding the banking industry. i am a director of the pr agency working the financial services sector. i have worked in the pr industry for 25 years. i work for lloyd's of london.

i think what hsbc has done so far is what any good business would do in a situation with solid pr behind it. that is to try to control the situation, to apologize where it can but the problem it's facing is this is running out of its control. now the politicians are becoming involved. whatever hsbc does it is not going to solve this. there is no silver bullet. for any business dealing with this type of crisis, step one is to isolate the problem as much as possible. step two is to prevent it happening again. we put procedures in place to stop it. step three is to take your penance. then to go through a rebuilding exercise over the next three months. >> we will bring you more on

this story. hsbc earnings are at it: 15 this morning. we are going to hear from the other bank. tsp as well. join us on twitter. tell us what you think. >> we had a good interview with anna. what interested me most was when he said that greece essentially takes the hospital path, recovers, the values the currency because that's the only way it can make it competitive. it comes back. >> the revolving door is perhaps not part of the language in berlin, which he can see at the end of the conversation. that will do it for countdown. >> those numbers are going to break in less than 20 minutes.

we are going to bring you analysis through the day. equity futures are indicated to open a little bit higher. carrying the seven year option higher.

>> good morning. welcome to on the move. just moments away from the start of european trading. stock markets expected to open a little bit higher. brussels breakthrough. greece strikes an agreement to keep bailout funds flowing for another four months. the government has to draw up a list of reforms that satisfy creditors and the electorate. hsbc under political fire. the investment bank reports earnings in just under 15 minutes time as allegations of facilitating tax evasion continue to heat up. depends negate to 25 kicked off the week extending a high.

a record high in london. just 15 points away from the all-time high. futures markets a little bit higher. dax futures up 0.8%. one man with the european market open. it's manus cranny. >> it looks like the devil in the details in terms of what greece gives us for an agreement. we are already seeing one of the oldest political members of cerise -- five reza taking to the internet -- syriza taking to the internet. we have had the best start of the year since 1997. volatility is on the up. v