extending a high. a record high in london. just 15 points away from the all-time high. futures markets a little bit higher. dax futures up 0.8%. one man with the european market open. it's manus cranny. >> it looks like the devil in the details in terms of what greece gives us for an agreement. we are already seeing one of the oldest political members of cerise -- five reza taking to the internet -- syriza taking to the internet. we have had the best start of the year since 1997. volatility is on the up. volatility is nearly 40% higher

in european trading on average so far this year. how is the market repositioning itself? we are getting a four-month opportunity. traders are paying the most for bearish options on this market since 2011. the most widely held option is for equity markets to drop by nearly 14%. the money is flowing in, but there is caution. what is going on with schroeder's? mine is just a little bit lower. -- minors -- miners just a little bit lower. they have had numbers come through. the currency market fell. you have the yen falling and the dollar rising.

things are just fine at the moment. jpmorgan asset management. more stimulus will come. 150 is one of the options on the table. keep an eye on the bond markets. treasuries are positioning for a bobby ryan. i was thinking -- a bumpy ride. what you have got is one of the worst starts to the u.s. treasury market in almost five years. where will the treasury market end up? asset managers say about 3% by the end of the year. we had another conversation. it really is a question of whether the treasury market is pricing in what janet yellin will say tomorrow.

+++ in the face of zero, nonexistent, even negative inflation. >> thank you very much. i'm going to take you to the last trading day, 1999 where the ftse 100 closed at 6120. we trade at 69 39 -- an all-time high. 6950 is the record high. a record high on a closing basis for the ftse 100. some are marketable moves in the market. on wall street the s&p 500 at a record high. that's the ftse now, of the third of 1%. interest rates to seal the deal.

in athens the greek government is walking a tightrope between obligations between creditors and voters as it rushes to do reforms. prime minister sipper us -- tsipris has to come up with a deal. joining us for more live from athens. eric, i am going to start with you. tell me what is the mood like in athens. is the government spinning this as a win? >> yes the government is spinning this as a victory. we have not heard from the prime minister this morning. we have not heard from the finance minister who will be submitting those reform proposals later today. here is tsipris on saturday. this is the tone he was striking.

i want you to listen to his words. >> we want a battle and not the war. the real difficulties including moves relating to our relationship with our partners are still ahead. >> you might wonder how alexis tsipras can talk about winning anything because by any analysis the greeks gained little to nothing in the deal on friday. yes, there was some flexibility on budget targets. yes, there were concessions on language. the eurogroup is no longer going to use the word troika. a much hated word here in greece. they are no longer going to reform to a bailout program. greece gained some small measure of the ability to define austerity in its own terms. that's the point. it's not about substance. it's about pride. it's about dignity. instead of being told which

limit has to hack off, the greeks get to choose which limb they prefer. whether it's the right arm or the left arm or left leg. they get to define their own destiny however painful that is going to be. that's what is at stake here. that is why there is no open rebellion within syria. that's why you have the economy minister saying earlier today or over the weekend the government is going to support whatever mr. vara cockup -- whatever mr. varoufakis does. >> let's head over to berlin. we moved straight from athens to berlin because this will need some approval at a domestic level in germany. >> that's why the specifics are so important. if it's just cosmetic and

symbolic in terms of the asset when they are going to submit to their creditors tonight for a conference call on tuesday morning. there could be a real challenge here. here are some of the questions still out here. what is greece going to do on labor market reform? what are they going to do about the 12,000 public-sector workers. there has been -- they have been a little less audible. also, privatization. the greek a room and talked about halting privatization. they are supposed to start selling 67% of the port off. if this is all about tax collection, there is a report out that greece wanted to get another 800 million euros from cigarette tax collection. if this is all about tax collection mr. scheuble is going to have a hard time selling it to the party and we could have

the deal collapsed. that's why the specifics are so important. we are waiting for them in berlin. >> we wait patiently in london as well. maybe some reassuring news from investors. he is a member of the investment committee. he joins us now. great to have you with us. this feels like a fragile agreement. let's start with the agreement. can they really spin this back to greece. >> i think it's a typical eurozone agreement. it's a last-minute agreement. they made some sort of compromise. they are leaving room for interpretation. what we have is a window of opportunity to solve the crisis.

this is probably the right direction. >> is there a risk greece doesn't come back harder and four months and the electorate don't see this as a win and they turn around and have to go even more extreme in this country falls hard as quick as it was put together? >> there is always a risk something goes wrong. i think we should admit the fact the great people are committed to staying in the euro. i think we have this sort of window of opportunity. it's not just greece. it's inside the eurozone that has a window of opportunity. what the eurozone has to do now is to put it together and grasp the window of opportunity for certain growth potential. >> let's talk markets.

my question is will this saga reduce any holdings at all, or does the shakeup present you with opportunities? >> i think you need to be very active and very global. we live in a world of financial repression. people thought the bond was as much as we could grow. now we are going from zero interest rate policy to negative interest rate policy. i think what you need to do is grasped segments where you can find opportunity. yields in excess of 3%. you need to be active in terms of the stocks in the markets where you want to be positioned. sometimes it needs to be a little bit more. look at emerging markets.

last year emerging markets were pretty mediocre. if you look at the best performers, they were china and india. >> what are the best-performing markets -- one of the best-performing markets was in italy. seven-year highs in europe. yields going lower. which one is most overpriced? >> i think when you are a global asset manager you can probably find some sort of alternative for fixed income. you have got great companies with good cash flow. good physical growth. they are probably providing something versus a fixed income market were certain segments are quite overpriced. not all segments are overpriced.

if you look at corporate bonds of the financial sector, you have attractive yields. we believe it is becoming less risky and more attractive for credit investors. >> we're going to talk about the financial sector after the break. here is a picture of the ftse 100 right now. the footsie going through an all-time high. a record closing basis, up a quarter of 1%. we're going to talk about hsbc as they deliver earnings in just three minutes time. the embattled bank under pressure and allegations of even aiding taxes. join us in three. ♪

>> welcome back. this is on the move. one company dominates headlines. hsbc earnings just raking. let's get out to an edwards for the details. >> this company possibly relieved the focus for the next five minutes is going to be very much on what they can deliver financially. hsbc pretax profit down by 17% in 2014. that's the first headline coming through. broadly unchanged in 2014. four-year reported pretax 18.7

billion against an estimate of 21.5 billion. shares are raising some of the gains they made already in the trading session. it seems the initial reaction is negative. adjusted revenue coming in at $62 billion compared to a forecast of 61 point 854. $18.7 billion. that was against an estimate of 21.5 billion. the number is lower than the estimate. the shares initially started to move lower as a result of these numbers coming out. they were previously a little stronger. capital ratio 10.9%. the ceo saying 2014 profits disappointed. the operators remain in a good

position. the stocks falling as much as 1.8% as a result of these numbers hitting the terminal. the company relieved the focus will be on the numbers, although you can see reaction has been negative. although we covered the political stories that have surrounded this business in recent weeks. >> thank you very much. still with us a member of the investment committee. stocks down just over 2%. we will talk about hsbc specifically on allegations they help clients evade taxes. for now a big mess on hsbc. were you looking to buy the stock at any point in the last 12 months? >> i don't think so. i think beyond the allegations it's difficult to know what lies

behind those allegations. our conviction regarding the financial sector is the regulatory pressure, the need for banks is not over. they will be better read numerate it on the credit base than the equity space. look at what happens a few weeks ago when we had the 7.5 billion rights issue. this is exactly the reason why we prefer credit. >> have you taken a look at hsbc in terms of their strategy of buying for credit instead of equity? is that something you have taken a look at? >> that something we could consider. this is not our preferred holding in terms of credit space right now.

we are also a shareholder of our cleat corporate bonds, but definitively that something that is part of our consideration. >> a big fund manager in the u.k. did hold hsbc. he talked of concerns of more risk ahead. is this just in hsbc thing or a financial sector play the fact there are more risks ahead? >> i think it is more of financial or issue. when you look at massive fines, when you look at standard charter, when you look at litigation with the swiss bank hsbc is not a one-off. i wouldn't single out hsbc. >> it is interesting that this continued u.k. management in the you is a key uncertainty amongst

all the other risks. how much of a risk is that? >> we know there could be a referendum in germany. the outcome could be quite uncertain. we have got to deal with the fact that they have more and more country activities. the capacity for banks to operate in one country with deficits out of another country. i am not sure an exit from the eurozone unit would hermetically change the picture for banks like hsbc. >> i want to look at the ftse 100. we have gone through that record high. we are under for the day. the ftse 100 down. hsbc stock down by two and a half percent. it's worth pointing out hsbc

makes up six and a half percent of the ftse 100. the move has pulled us back from the all-time high on the ftse 100. a big banking week ahead. we have earnings from rbs and lloyds. u.k. banks are really in focus. next we are going to talk about crude. crude is in focus. the middle eastern countries are upping their production. more on that when we return. ♪

>> welcome back. i am live from the city of london. time to talk about oil. after crude plummets we have seen a jump in the commodity. big percentage swings on a daily basis. still quite a ways from summer highs. rent up 25% of the low base last month. writing we sought a recount drop by 48, adding to a trend we have been seeing since december. let's get some final thoughts. the big take away is the drop is not feeding into a drop in u.s. production. total u.s. production keeps climbing higher. when do we start to see a balance? >> i think it will be a medium-term prospect. we believe in 12 months oil should be above $65.

that is probably the cost of production for u.s. shale oil. in the short term we could face a renewed weakening of the oil price. there is an imbalance between supply and demand. within less than six months we will have global storage capacity which will be worldwide, and that will put additional pressure on oil price. >> have you looked at any of these oil majors and rubbed her hands and thought, i am going to buy these and hold them a couple of years? >> the big question is which ones are actually integrating. a lot of major companies are already factoring in oil price in the region of $70. we quite like one canadian company, because we believe the long duration of the asset actually cuts while still generating healthy cash flow.

>> the ftse 100 coming off record highs. you're seeing gains almost everywhere. talk to me about valuations. >> i think the market is more or less fairly valued compared with where we are. obviously there is no room for complacency. we would prefer companies which can deliver sustainable earnings growth. either because they are positioning some sort of structural growth -- technological holdings or because they have a lot of potential. a fantastic company, lots of capacity to generate above 8%. that's the kind of story where we want to be positioned in order to navigate fairly valued markets. >> thank you very much.

coming up, what's next for greece after the country finally came to a deal with eurozone creditors? how fragile is that deal? we will discuss that after the break.

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>> welcome back. this is a picture of the markets. the equity markets are trading flat. we went through the all time high on the ftse 100 and we are now at 6916 coming off of the highs because of one stock in particular. that is the greek agreement rally. the dax is up. the top stock stories, that one in particular is a little bit lower and away from the record highs. it is mark barton.

>> when it shares fall that much, it takes the ftse lower. if he hits it and overcomes the previous. the previous highs i was literally here. let's talk abate -- let's talk about hsbc. they profits miss. the charges are lower and it is talking about the swiss unit that helped customers evade taxes and expressed apology for that. the biggest drop since 2013 is significant. something i discovered about the drugmakers of the stoxx 600 is that it is up at the highest point ever for the stoxx 600

index today. it is up 24% and up 14% this year. the big story is outside of the drugmakers. there are $10 billion in cash and it has the industry talking about who will be next. up at the highest levels ever and the highest since 2014 in reporting earnings for stop -- earnings. the fourth-quarter earnings beat estimates and the volume will accelerate outside of units in the first half of the year. the french company should unite after all of the regulatory processes are over. it is all about hsbc and the ftse 100. >> thank you very much. we are waiting for the opening of the stock exchange and the

markets are closed today for public holiday with greece very much in focus and the government walking a tight rope. it rushes to meet a deadline and there are reports that satisfy the demands of both. the prime minister has until tonight to work out the details that will buy the country for months of continued funding. let's talk german politics. there is a lot of german politics weaved into the deal. how will merkel sell this to the public. it is easier than what separates have. >> the germans are claiming is -- we have seen both sides position themselves and claim that they got the better deal. you heard wolfgang you say that out of the bat and said that the greek government will have a difficult time selling this to voters. he may have a difficult time in

parliament if we do not get specific tonight with the troika had a teleconference call on tuesday morning. what does greece do with labor reforms, pension reforms, and privatization. they are not going to be able to paste over the problems with cosmetic solutions. the bill will have to be passed by regional parliaments. i will be working -- looking for details. you could see the greek government come back from the pledge to higher the 12,000 who were laid off. what are they going to do about pension reform? they have a little leeway with the fiscal accounts and will be able to spend more. they have to abide by the bailout package. there will be a backlash in

spain, portugal, ireland. the details are important. we have a conference call on tuesday morning. >> let's talk about the german politics. it is interesting to read the reports around the spanish approach. what do you make of that? >> it gives you a sense of the domestic politics at play. he said they needed to have a formal vote. we understand that he was pushing for a formal vote and that was voted down. they came back and pushed the matter and agreed to have a conference call. the eurogroup finance chiefs still have the opportunity and the ability to shoot down the agreements and the specifics if

there are not enough actual cuts by the government. >> great work. there is much to discuss. let's keep the conversation on greece with the head of global strategy. great to have you with us. let's talk about leverage and a contest between the eurozone and greece. the one party that could blink is the market. the markets did blink once. do the greeks have a chance? >> i think it is difficult for them to get what they wanted. that was pretty much not a reference to the program. the current program was remade to the current arrangements and, in the end, we're talking about a complete surrender, in terms of what the other side really wanted. in that respect greece

overestimated the situation. the most important thing is that, unlike 2011, right now, nearly 85% of the sovereign debt is held by the official sector and not the market. >> let's talk the markets on this. we did not see any moves that concerns the rest of the eurozone. as far as you are concerned when i cut through the political noise and the changes, is this an extension of the existing bailout? >> i think it is. you have an explicit reference to the micro financial assistance facility. you go to page three and paragraph seven and it says the completion of the terms with the minimum understanding. that is pretty much what his

coalition wants to avoid. it is pretty much the extension of the current program in disguise. not much more than that. >> is it early? >> it is early. i have been going through it over the weekend and, it seems to me, the platform has a bit of discomfort and i would not take a bet on it. i think it is not going to be an easy job to sell the decisions internally. >> we talk about greece while this is going on. the pmi has been improving for the rest of the eurozone and credit zone is less bad. that is a low bar. let's talk quickly. it is expected to rise. how disappointing with that be?

>> i do not think it is going to be very disappointing. first of all, what we usually have is a lot of disappointing data that surprises on the upside and it takes people getting expectations revised upwards. i suspect that, at the end of the day, it will be one number. if i had to take a vote on the overall number that we have seen out of the eurozone in february, i think the majority 65-70%, have surprised. >> let's talk about the credit situation and the recovery. optimists are saying things are getting less bad and you have money supply versus sector growth. as you look at the credit situation in the eurozone, are you an optimist that things are

less bad and that things will improve question mark >> yes -- improve? >> yes. i think things will improve with the pricing over the last 3-4 months and i think that the lower oil prices will comply an increase in demand. the important thing to remember right now is that there is a problem of deflation and a big chunk of that is good deflation. it is through lower commodity prices, which will fuel domestic real demand and increased appetite for lending. i think credit will pick up further from here. >> things getting less bad, is that with credit conditions or demand taking up? it is the latter that we need. >> i am not sure that we are

there yet. i think that we are reaching a point where we see a boost in demand because of the fact that the drop in inflation is for good reasons and not bad reasons. >> if you believe that things are going to pick up, what does that translate into with your strategy? >> writes. -- right. we have revisions of all houses out there and discussions about qb. indeed, the forecast follows the euro lower from where it is right now. the main risk is that we will see it rebounds that will be harder than people expect. the greek situation has not really played any important role. if anything, it may have are

strange the euro from the fact that there is better data coming out of the eurozone. the issue is that so much has surprised the dollar and there was a major to coupling. on the other hand, the pessimism has been priced into the euro. >> do i cushion the dollar from the euro sterling on the sterling side of the trade? >> it is different because of the issue with the concerns. still when i read comments coming out of the minutes from the bank of england and, in the latest one, they say that they expect the headlines to be shocking, following the effect of the lower oil prices. that implies that they are beginning to become forward-looking.

having the rates priced in for the fed in the summer with 55 basis points in march of 2016 is too wide of a gap and it means that there is room for prices earlier. not hugely. a bit earlier. i think the margin -- i understand there is uncertainty over the political developments and the united kingdom. if i was taking a six month view, i would say the risk for the euro sterling is at the downside because the rate hike is coming. >> the rate hike is coming. that is the message from the head of global fx strategy at unicredit. the bank missed earning estimates. they pay taxes through the swiss unit. the stock makes up 6% of the

ftse 100. before the numbers came out, it was pushing a record high. we will come back flat. the ftse is trading down. we had to the break and there is the 4100 a little bit lower. hsbc dominates the headlines. we will talk about that after the break.

>> good morning. welcome back. time to talk about the company headlines. a just ec missed estimates and shares are down by the biggest drop since november 2011. the earnings are not the only problem. they are fighting off political fire after the private swiss unit was involved in tax evasion allegations. let's bring james ferguson into the conversation. james, let's start with the earnings numbers lower than expected. you put the numbers against the allegations of the evasion of swiss taxes. which is the bigger concern when you hold the stock? >> the issue about the bad press is what we have noticed over the past 2-3 years. as the provisions dropped away from the big scare, it was the

case that people noticed that regular funds gone through the roof. the regulatory fun was small. it might be one million pounds or 2 million pounds. suddenly, we are talking about aliens of dollars worth. if the bank appears to have stepped over a regulatory line the fines do not have any real relationship with the crime. it is interesting that the reporting about this talks about tax avoidance. totally legal. tax avoidance is not a thing. you can overpay or underpay. to prevent overpaying or the supply chain, you try to avoid paying the tax twice. the taxman does not tend to say, "you overpaid."

they start off by being accused of tax avoidance. you cannot accuse someone of something that is not a crime. >> there is a question about tax avoidance and the morals. on the tax evasion side, if the allegations translate bigger how'd you account for the levels of funds. >> they have gone stratospheric. we are talking about tens of billions of dollars per bank. you look at hsbc and they have data between 10 billion and $15 billion. hsbc is already the highest paying bank. you have to factor in numbers like $10 billion or $20 billion.

the good news is that we are knocking the chronic loss and it is put together on balance. >> we know how it plays out and the allegations start. the uncertainty around management begins and what role they may or may not have had to play. that look at the direction of the bank and the numbers for what we know right here right now. is this still a good buy? >> the reputation risk is more than the financial risk, at the moment. the knee-jerk response by traders is to sell shares and -- >> the move is exacerbated. >> the stock has not gone anywhere for a couple of years and it is a reasonably high yielding and reasonably solid type of play. the costs are going up at every bank because of the regulatory

impact. the swing factor is trading. that is always unpredictable. many people will take a step back and say it is time to top off. >> the founding partner of macro strategy partnerships, thank you for joining us. hsbc kicks off earnings in a packed week for the banks. wednesday, we get results. the next is lloyd's reporting. for now, let's get the top stories of bloomberg. apple tries to spend $2 billion. it is building data centers in ireland and denmark powered by renewable energy. it will start operations in 2017. -- agreed to buy pharmaceuticals for cash. investors will get $158 a share. according to data powered by

bloomberg, it will be the biggest ever acquisition. it was a big night for bird man at the academy awards. it won best picture, director cinematography and screenplay. -- picked up an oscar for his portrayal of stephen hawking in "the theory of everything." let's get back to the real business. forget the oscars. the ftse is lower on the back of the hsbc earnings. we are now 20 points off of the all-time high. we will talk about the markets after the break.

>> welcome back to on the move. this is almost it for on the move. we are joined by guy johnson. briefly, the ftse 100 made headlines and then, hsbc. >> it is a big mess. today is a focus on the numbers and the pay of the senior executives and what is happening with the senior executives being combined with taking a lot off of the stock and the index. >> that is a big focus and the other big focus is greece. i was speaking to -- of the unicredit. this was the city -- this was

the bailout agreement extended for four months. >> this is buying time and kicking the can. the fight is still on and greece is going to go back and i think they have learned a lot of lessons. you have learned a lot of lessons over the last few weeks over how europe really works rather than looking from the outside and thinking this is how it works. now you know and you go away to make a different plan. i think that will happen. the spanish and the germans are pushing hard. it will be interesting. >> the school of hard knocks over the last couple of weeks. thank you very much. looking forward to the show. it is the story of the ftse 100 and the story of hsbc. briefly the ftse 100 what to it all-time high and it came down

after hsbc, which makes up 6% of the index, collapsed on the back of weaker earnings. that will be a big story through the morning. you can follow me on twitter.

guy: greece scrambles. the country has until the end of the day to submit a list of financial measures to meet the demands of creditors and its government. francine: hsbc under pressure. the bank reports a profit mess. guy: and the winner is "bird man." the film is given hollywood's highest honor, taking home the oscar for best picture. good morning. welcome to "th