>> i'm john heilemann. >> i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to rahm emanuel, if today doesn't go well, you can always go back to your day job, undersecretary for go [bleep] yourself. >> happy national tortilla chip day, sports fans. in our lineup tonight, pension tension and the poppa bear bear trap. but first, step right up, step right up, hillary land is open. secretary clinton is speaking at a conference for women in silicon valley. we will show you some of that speech later and you can watch it all now on bloomberg.com. why is hillary clinton speaking

in southern california? because of high-tech, because of the future, because of the alien -- barefoot billionaires out there none of which explains why we are paying attention to this speech. my question to you is why does this speech matter? >> you can see she has just now come out there. we will talk about it after she starts speaking. she has done very few events in the united states will stop there's a huge -- there's a vacuum now any interest of what she has to say. people can say no rush, no hurry. she needs to start defining herself with the umbrella theme she is going to run on, which is going to make history. >> we cannot take it out of context. it has not been a great time for her lately. there have been a lot of stories out there that have been problematic and she has not then out there responding them. there is bad polling and whether she's asked in the q&a about

these things or implicitly in about the things you just said this is a moment where her image has been taking shape for many years. maybe she can turn the corner here. >> we saw over the weekend that it is bad for her team to talk about the strategy of selling her. but they do and this is the kind of event where she needs to show people what she is like relaxed. >> this should be a place where she can take advantage of something that is a potential asset for her -- talking about women. women are going to be a huge part of her campaign throughout. secondly, i joked about the future, but being aligned with silicon valley and that money and with that sense, a future is big for her. >> you can watch hillary clinton's speech on bloomberg politics.com. if you don't want to watch us, you can watch that instead and come back and watch our show at 5:00 p.m. eastern.

but now we are going to move on to the garden state. on the eve of chris christie's egg budget unveiling today, a -- big budget unveiling today, a judge with an exquisite jersey sense of timing shoved a big boy back in the girl. her honor says christie broke the law i not putting money into the pension plan. >> by putting forward new solutions to an age-old problem like this, we are creating a national model. by signing this roadmap with the teachers union, we are showing government can work for all of our hard-working taxpayers. >> a deal with the teachers union, at least the start of a deal to try to work some of this out. good for christie or bad for christie? >> bad for christie. when the court comes down and says you have roque and the law, it's bad for you and it

highlights the fact that new jersey's fiscal situation is in bad shape. the big decisions are going to come tomorrow. when he goes to see pack later -- cpak later in the week, he has to give a real political speech. >> i don't think the new jersey economy has failed to improve -- his big calling card was that he could be tough on unions but still make deals with them. having a deal is good. >> that things have gone past that now. people are looking at christie through a new lens in this economy thing is one of the untold stories. >> he's a springsteen guy and i'm a barry manilow guy. he's got to get that feeling again or he has no chance. scott walker is running, bashing unions, not working with democrats. christie, tough love work with democrats. if he can recapture that, he can get his mojo back. >> i am moving on to one of your favorite people, bill o'reilly

who refers to his show as the "no spin zone." poppa bear has threatened a new york times reporter and might cancel the subscription. mark, my question to you is will the allegations against bill o'reilly stick? >> i don't think they will because his audience won't care about them and he's impervious to the kind of scrutiny that brian williams would get. he clearly used words that went beyond the known facts but lots of people have. >> he is not an anchor, he is not brian williams, he is not a guy who is counted on to be neutral or objective. that does not excuse lying about things but it's a -- it's not an excuse. it's interesting to watch fox not running from controversy running straight into keeping it. it just shovels more coal into the firehouse of fox news and everything they are about. they don't cower, they love it. >> it's a good business model for fox and it has worked. bill o'reilly has his own

platform and suggested last night he's ready to move on. i think if there are no new facts, he can move on and this won't have an effect on the trajectory of his incredible career. >> what he won't be doing is taking brian williams'job. >> unlikely. >> i'm not sure that was his ambition anyway. coming up, the doyenne of mitt romney's campaign dollars the medicine bumgardner of presidential fundraising spencer zwick, the man, the myth, the legend is here and we will ask him about everything from a twoo zwick. ♪

>> our guest tonight is the hottest free agent. everybody wants him so badly -- you would think he was wrapped by scott boris -- repped by scott boras.

spencer zwick, thank you for coming in. fundraising has been your specialty, but you are also interested in politics. we're going to talk about both in the context of 2016 full top let's talk with the financial network. a lot of generous donors at u.n. governor romney built as a team, what's the status of where those people are? a lot of people wanted governor romney to run, but where is that group? >> i would say a lot disappointed that he's not in the race but a lot on the sidelines, not ready to commit. >> a lot of people in the bush camp say a lot of them have gone to governor bush. is that true? >> a lot have gone to governor bush. he's dealing one out there saying he is actively thinking about it. but to say they have all gone to governor bush -- >> of your big bundlers, what percentage is still on the sideline? >> a large majority are still on the sideline. >> the fact that they are not with governor bush -- what do they find lacking in him that they are not tiling in behind

the guy who is the establishment front runner? >> i don't think it suggests anything other than it is early. they've had an opportunity to spend time with him -- some were waiting for governor romney and this is really early. it's february. >> you would acknowledge that governor bush has a commanding posture as a fun raiser. -- fundraiser. if you look at the other potential candidates, who looks likely to be close to him more in the number two position? >> it's early. a lot can happen between now and the debates, but who has the ability to pull the money together? clearly, governor bush will have bundlers and large donors fully on board. he already does.

marco rubio is going to excite a lot of people. there are folks in other parts of the country who are willing to write big checks. i don't think you can write off governor christie. scott walker clearly has great support. you have four right there who are going to be able to raise sufficient money to run a credible primary campaign. >> is there anyone on the more conservative side who are formidable -- maybe not as formidable as what you mentioned but really formidable, do you think? >> specifically in terms of fundraising. >> rand paul -- ron paul never did a fund raiser and raised more than $50 million. pretty amazing. to know the small dollar contributions that came in for ron paul were enough to run a credible primary campaign. i believe land -- i believe rand can do the same thing. he spent time -- will he spend time meeting with others the way he did? i don't know.

as for ted cruz and mike huckabee, i don't know if they can pull the money together. i think it's too early to know. >> you are gracious toward a lot of people who helped build the financial network, but a lot of people would like you to sign up with them. some people think you might go to the republican national committee to help the republican -- help the republican party not choose a candidate. has that been discussed? >> having been to the campaign in 2012 and then in a position to partner with the republican party when mitt romney became the presumptive nominee, the rnc will be in a unique position if they'd do their job right to provide the funds, resources and technology for whoever the nominee is. >> is it possible you can go a -- as a fundraiser and not endorse a candidate? >> i would want to be involved with a candidate, but that's not to say would help the rnc. >> who is your guy? >> how do you know there is not

a gal? >> you've talked favorably about marco rubio and chris christie -- are those that to you are most likely to work with? >> governor christie, jeb bush walker -- who knows? is case it going to run? -- john kasich going to run? >> is here forth -- is he your fourth or is it bush? >> well, i don't know if john kasich is going to run or not. >> those are the four who are thinking about running. >> you've talked about the party needs a new image. is governor bush someone who can set that standard? >> he has not been a nominee in the past. >> nobody running has been the nominee in the past. >> when mitt romney was thinking about running, he was a nominee in the past. >> you are not more favorably someone like a jeb bush? >> on the 2012 campaign, one of my jobs was to identify

surrogates who could travel a -- the country without the candidate and raise money on their own. it did not matter where we sent marco rubio. he was willing and eager to help governor romney, but when he would go places, the crowd was electrified. they love having him there. he was able to raise money, he had grassroots support. people were excited to have marco rubio. >> it seems like you are more enthusiastic about him than anyone else in the field. is that fair to say? >> i think marco rubio has the potential to catch lightning in a bottle. >> does anyone else have the same potential? >> yes. sure. >> so you are not more enthusiastic about him many -- than the others? even though you are giving off that impression. >> i'm excited to see marco rubio put a campaign together. i think he could catch lightning in a bottle. he's got a very compelling story. he's incredible on the stump. i know a lot of people say chris christie is not able to bring donors together and he's having a hard time.

you get chris christie in a debate and he's going to be strong. >> there are a lot of tea leaves out here. it's not hard to read them. if people watch this interview and come away saying he's -- likely to go work for marco rubio you would not say that is a crazy conclusion for someone to draw? >> no, but i could also go work someone like jeb bush. >> was your timetable for deciding? >> i have no idea. i was thinking mitt romney would be a candidate. i was hoping he would be a candidate. this is a guy who has been a friend, mentor and boss. i worked for him at the olympics, so i bleed romney. >> just to be clear, you think you will be all in for a candidate. you think you will be doing the kind of job, taking the leadership role for someone?

>> that's presumptuous. to claim you will do that. >> you have demonstrated a capacity to do it and almost every candidate would want you on their team. >> every candidate is going to build their own team. >> i know you have said it is early, but the bush campaign has done a lot. breakdown what they have actually achieved so far in terms of signing people on? how does that position them? >> we said in 2007, when mitt romney was running against rudy giuliani and john mccain, we felt money talks and early money screams. that was why we created call day. we raised $6.5 million at the start of the campaign. jeb bush has done a remarkable job of getting out there early and locking down fundraisers and saying hillary clinton is going

to have $2 billion or at least $1.7 billion. who is going to be able to go up against that? is it going to be someone knew -- new that has not had an opportunity to have their message tested or will it be someone like jeb issue is able -- jeb bush who is able to pull the money together early and raise more than a billion dollars? >> let me ask a question about governor romney. when we heard him do the call, it was noticeable that he left the door ajar. if any circumstance would arise where he might change his mind he said that seems unlikely. can you imagine any circumstance in which he would get back in this race? >> one thing i know about mitt romney -- if he thought there was a need and that his party needed him to be able to defeat hillary clinton, i know he would be there if called upon. but i also take him at his word that he wanted to give other people an opportunity who hadn't had an opportunity to get their message out there. but if needed, would he be there? there's no doubt in my mind. >> you are talking for him, not

just your hopes and dreams ? >> you have to ask him, but do i believe he would be there absolutely? -- absolutely. the guys a patriot. what guy is leading the poll has an ability to bring the money and would not run? i believe mitt romney made that decision because he's a true patriot. maybe someone has a better chance of beating hillary clinton. pretty remarkable, in my opinion. >> we're going to talk more about hillary clinton after the break and check in on her of -- event that going on right now from california right after this. ♪

>> we have got ourselves a classic tv twofer. spencer zwick is in the studio and hillary clinton giving a big speech right now in silicon valley, so we're going to talk to spencer about secretary

clinton's speech. let's start with hillary talking about the pay gap -- she made a reference to patricia arquette's speech at the oscars and also said this. >> you bump your heads on the glass ceilings that persist in the tech industry. one recent report on the gender pay gap in the valley found a woman with a bachelors degree here tends to make 60% less than a man with the same degree. we can literally count on one hand the number of women who have actually been able to come here and turn their dreams into billion-dollar businesses. >> that is hillary clinton out there in a place with a lot of money, where she's obviously not doing fundraising but talking to people who might be big donors. you have said she will be incredibly formidable. take that apart a little more. you mentioned a very big number a while ago. why is so formidable?

>> beyond she doesn't have any opponent? >> that that does not get you to $1.7 billion. >> we saw this in the other campaign, these outside groups. these outside groups have already started with hillary even though there is no campaign. if you look on the republican side, it takes a candidate or likely candidate to get one of those started. there are four or five outside groups who will actively play a different role in promoting or defending hillary clinton's candidacy. you name the super pac -- you had some of them on the show. they are going to be incredibly organized. i cannot imagine a scenario where they don't have at least $1.5 billion or $2 billion between the campaign and those outside groups. >> what separates people like a jeb bush who can go into battle?

if hillary is the nominee, her supporters are fired up and she is going to raise $1.7 billion. can anybody raise that or does it take someone to raise all the way to parity of national standings -- someone who's a great fundraiser, either grassroots were super pac? -- or through a super pac? >> hopefully the nominee has the energy, excitement and passion for the campaign both internally as well as to the outside groups to be able to come close to matching what secretary clinton -- >> could it be a mismatch if you nominate the wrong person? could you get a billion and be -- >> absolutely. number one, they are getting started now for hillary. whoever our nominee is will have to face a tough binary battle and spend money of their own in the primary. meanwhile, hillary is building a war chest that may be unlike anything we have seen before. >> you understand the mind of republican governors pretty well. there are a lot of things that drive donors.

sometimes it's ideology sometimes it's issues. sometimes it's electability. in this context, is the notion of i must continue to be a backer of a candidate who can go toe to toe with her financially, does that become the paramount thing? that money competition is the main criteria or there's going to be a lot of competing archery -- criteria for big dollar donors? >> i think there is some criteria but the ability to raise the money will be paramount in any donors mind. what they want to know is does this candidate have the ability not just to win the primary, winning the primary is not the prize. the prize is to defeat hillary clinton. in order to do that, you have to have the resources. >> are you and governor romney going to begin candidate in

tandem? >> governor romney is going to do what he decides to do. he's not going to differ to be. >> are you working on that together? >> what you will see mitt romney do is the same thing he did in 2014. he will travel the country and support the party. i expect him to endorse a candidate. >> that you will not necessarily wait for him to decide. >> that's right. >> tangibly, what would a scenario look like that would draw romney to get into this race a year from now? >> i think the donors and the grassroots activists from the republican party, and i'm not talking about just fringe activists, but the mainstream of the party have the same goal, to defeat hillary clinton. if we were to get behind a

candidate that has no chance of defeating hillary clinton i imagine it would be an outcry -- >> who is the next most likely president of the united states? and the next most likely. >> whose first and who is second. >> you go first. >> i asked first. >> whose most likely to be the republican nominee? i think you have four. >> give me names. who's the most likely next president? >> i can't give you one name. >> come on. >> we will take two names, tied for first. >> jeb bush and marco rubio. >> hillary clinton is owning our news cycle and we will be right back with gore. -- with more. ♪

>> big political news -- you are looking live at hillary clinton speaking in california. you can watch that speech at bloomberg politics.com.

big news from california. antonio vieira bosa -- he's out there. there's a guy out there whose making a name for himself in a sport where your name and maybe a number are what define you. somewhere in that pack is a driver that can intimidate the intimidator. a guy that can take the king 7 and make it 8. heck. maybe even 9. make no mistake about it. they're out there. i guarantee it. welcome to the nascar xfinity series.

pimm: hello, i'm pimm fox and this is what i am taking stock of. the federal reserve is holding a -- building a rate hike flex ability. reserve chair janet yellen spoke senate banking -- before the senate banking committee. she said the central bank would pay more attention to data in the calendar in order to make a decision to change interest rates. >> the modification should be understood as reflecting the committee's judgment. conditions have improved to the point where it will soon be the case that the change to the