mark: i am mark halperin. john: today you are hired. tomorrow you are fired. ♪ happy national chocolate covered nut day, sports fans. barack obama, hillary clinton, and rahm emanuel. and a town hall with chris christie. but first the new poll out of iowa puts scott walker the top of the pack by healthy margin and raises some critical issues for jeb bush.

if you could hear me across the hudson, who at this moment is the current republican front-runner? mark: by every measure it is jeb bush. he will raise the most money the establishment likes him, a lot of members of congress would like to see him be the nominee. scott walker ahead in the new poll and is being seen by younger people as a more exciting alternative to jeb bush. if you go by traditional measures, jeb bush is the front runner. according to web fundraising it is scott walker. john: right now, scott walker, the poll puts him ahead. he has 17 points between him and

jeb bush in iowa. a place where scott walker needs to win. you also see in this poll that jeb bush way worse numbers than anyone else in the republican field. 40% unfave and a lot of republicans will not vote for him. he is the front runner but scott walker is coming out strong. mark: bush needs as the front runner to play in all of them. does he stretch himself too thin trying to beat walker and others in iowa, trying to be crisp in new hampshire, he will have to have a place to win. you have to win an early stage and you have to compete everywhere. john: rand paul did better with moderate republicans. hillary clinton broke a long silence with a paid speech and i do mean paid. unless you think 300 k is chump change. she was talking about women and technology.

she did kind of wink at us. >> my friend madeline albright famously said there is a special spot in hell for women who do not help other women. so, what you do does not have to be big and dramatic. you do not have to run for office. [laughter] [applause] although, if you do, more power to you. >> this was covered extensively. what was most important overlooked thing about it? mark: the fact that the right-wing did not attack her. hillary clinton out in public for the first time. i cannot find any evidence that the right wing would find anything to latch onto.

she performed pretty well and was not attacked. john: that is right for sure. there was a lot of coverage about the income inequality message and so on. what you saw in the video, a much looser, much more spontaneous, much funnier hillary clinton. the hillary clinton that some of the reporters know, not the stiff or robotic hillary clinton. a whole different look than she had in 2007 and through most of 2014. you cannot stress enough how important it is to her candidacy. the other thing that was interesting is the sense that she is forming a message around middle-class and working class not just women but voters in general. and people who think she cannot be authentic on the economy if they watched the whole thing

they would see someone who feels comfortable in that space, not extreme left but not too hard to the right uncomfortable talking about our economy. >> the embrace of the feminist hillary clinton. the woman message. we talked about this yesterday on the show but it was a huge absence of her campaign in 2007, 2008. not embracing the notion that she would be a historic nominee. she sounds like she is ready to embrace that in a full throated way. women are going to be the thing if she gets elected president. that will be a huge part of why. women love this woman. >> no question. the people who criticize her for not answering all the questions, that is true of all the republicans who are running. she did just fine on that score. she is reassuring not just on the west coast but to her

supporters who were worried about whether she is to speed. she played the crowd very well. >> one bad thing, that 300 k reporting, that is not a good look. >> stop giving paid speeches. >> president obama. remember him? he is embarking down a three-month ideas toward get everything ready for hillary. he also unsheathed his patent on keystone and launched a new assault on wall street greed heads. what are the implications of obama's offensive for 2015 and 2016? mark: 2015, you see the republican disarray on the homeland security department. you see that republican disarray on how to approach improving the economy. the president can have a stronger nine months than a lot of people thought.

in terms of 2016 he is once again framing the economic debate in a way that will be advantageous to whoever the nominee is. republicans will not have as easy a target as they thought. >> not only the economic argument, the most important thing president obama can leave to hillary clinton and his party is the extraordinary coalition of the ascendant that elected him and is even more important in 2012. if he is a fading figure, it is hard for hillary clinton to inherit that demographic coalition. if he is a forceful, out front figure it put her in a easier position. that would be a huge advantage to her and all the electoral college advantages. mark: there is maybe rand paul and no one else in the republican field right now who can go into a town meeting like that and expect to give the kind

of answers and performance that president obama will give tonight. that is a huge part, the coalition of the ascendant that he will deal with. john: you think about jeb bush one of the reasons he is a strong nominee, he could crack the code on hispanics and get the numbers up to 40%. maybe marco rubio would have a chance of doing that. that strength -- >> i messed up when i said rand paul. jeb bush could do it. >> the party has to be in the right place or they are never going to get the numbers of hispanics they need to win the presidency and barack obama is pushing that agenda harder. really important for 2016. congratulations to our pal, rahm

emanuel who will be part of the mayoral runoff. his opponent said he could win this thing. it beggars belief but is it possible that rahm emanuel could actually lose and if so what would it take for that to happen? mark: a lot of people in the city will rally around rahm emanuel. business interests, a lot of white voters will rally. it is so hard to say what will happen because there has never been as you said a runoff in a chicago mayoral race. if he attacks this guy and people see it as a white mayor in a city where racial politics are still in the forefront, that could rally nonwhite voters, even african-americans for this candidate. it is a dangerous situation for rahm emanuel but i still make him the favorite. john: the turnout in this race

in the primary was horrific. it was in the mid-30's. he has got to get turnout up and work on the precincts in the areas of the city where he is strong and get turnout in those places. garcia would need to get out a big chunk of the black vote to vote for him. there is not a lot of historic love between the hispanic and african-american community in chicago so that will be hard for garcia. there are ways in which this could go south. it would be a wake-up call for rahm emanuel. mark: people keep saying wake-up call but the fact is he knew it was far better to avoid a runoff and he pulled out the stops. he was not complacent, he brought up president obama, his allies went after the guy he is in the runoff with. i'm am not sure there are more stops to pull out and there is a danger if he pulls out too much, there could be a backlash. >> john: i guess that is the

point. going negative is really dangerous. mark: he tried to get turnout up yesterday and did not do it. john: he will have to do it better than he did in this one. it will be fascinating to watch that race. a couple years ago you would have thought he was impregnable and there was no way he would end up in the situation. this could be an actual real race. mark: watch to see if any of the prominent african-american entertainers represented by his brother end up in chicago to endorse rahm emanuel. john: i will watch that. i bet it will happen. our garden state correspondent and the talk of the town hall, chris christie. that is next. ♪

>> chris christie tried to dislodge himself today.

we dispatched mark to be the eyes and ears of the event. tell us what you saw. mark: this was the first time he has been at a town meeting and the audience was respectful. there were none of the huge youtube moments that have made these town halls famous. i talked to him briefly and asked him about people saying he is dead and his candidacy is not going anywhere. he said he was an underdog in the sense that jeb bush is the son of a president. i also asked him about that new york times story in which they talked about the luxurious lifestyle that he has led. we did not get into specifics but he said he was ready for that kind of scrutiny if he does run. in the town hall itself, a lot of nuts and bolts questions. he is still very much immersed in governing the state although he has been traveling. detailed questions on fiscal policy and sandy recovery.

he got a question about atlantic city. the big thing he talked about was this deal that he reads, tentative outline of a deal to go forward to deal with the pension crisis with the teachers union. he talked about how he worked in the past in new jersey and how he is working now. >> we are not going to solve this by yelling at each other or by pointing fingers at each other. we will solve this by working together. that's what i tried to do the entire time i have been governor. sometimes i have to yell and scream to get people to work together and i do that sometimes, but ultimately, in a state like ours, when you are a republican governor with the democratic legislature and more of your citizens in the opposite party than your party, you want to get something done, you got to reach your hand out and be willing to compromise and work with them. >> that is the message that he

got up to the national stage. being tough with unions but compromising. >> that is the old chris christie. before bridgegate. what i'm curious about is whether there has been so much inflicted on him. i can understand why he is trying to get back to that place. given everything that has happened. i have some significant doubts and i am curious if you think this is the beginning of him reclaiming that mantle or if he is just whistling dixie. mark: if he were elected president he would have a republican legislature in washington to deal with. the crowd did not seem particularly moved.

the democratic legislature while they were willing to work with him in his first term they do not see him inclined to give more deals. he does need a pension deal and there could be a deal if he keeps the teachers unions and negotiating with them. let's talk about another thing. john: one of the hard things is for some people there is the memory of the bridgegate thing and in 2013 where he talked about talking up with democrats, he punished democrats who were against him in that fight. people wonder how much this talk is belied about the tactics he engaged in in that race. on to the next topic. mark: the other thing he talked about a lot and in response to some of the questions was taxes. it is a huge issue when republicans have been empowered. tom keene in -- it has been a hard-line anti-tax message.

he talked extensively and got the best reaction from the crowd for most of the day about read his lips, he will not raise taxes and made fun of the texas them in his own state. >> we will tax you for the temerity of dying and then we're going to tax your grandchildren accepting the money from grandma or grandpa. we have our hands in your pocket at every stage of life. john: if he is not raising taxes, it will be difficult to do. and again it is a very tax sensitive state. he does have his voice on that. i'm not sure how he thinks democrats will pin him down but he does not intend to consider raising taxes. that would be poison in the context of running for president.

john: he has positioning and one other is the candidacy. the question of whether he can get the economy back on track is a big question. you can see him maybe trying to signal that he is going to move into a very aggressive antitax posture if he runs for president. that might get him some contrast and traction against jeb bush. maybe supply-side and sweeping is where he wants to go. mark: it will be interesting to see if he says that in the context of running for president. almost all these questions were about state issues. they were about sandy relief the economy and atlantic city, some health care policy issues. the one question he got was the

one about hog farming regulation which he said democrats were trying to gin up to embarrass him. he closed with the notion of continuing to govern new jersey while he ponders running for president. >> there is all this conversation about me running for president. easy, now. and there is this sense or feeling that that decision will determine whether i do my job or not. and whether i am here are not. maybe if i decide to run and if i won, i will not do both at the same time, nor would you want me to. i am focused on this job. i can walk and chew gum at the same time. mark: the biggest thing i take out of the town hall and my discussion afterwards is he

understands he has to have his temperament in check. there was not much to make him mad but he is determined to erase the image of him as a angry guy. the reason i am nearly alone in saying he is in this hunt for the nomination is he has better skills at answering questions in a genuine way than almost anybody in the race. john: you are right when you say i am much more skeptical than you. you could see it was happy smiley chris christie today. i do not think we will see many of those youtube moments in the future if it is up to him. he will try to stay on the happy warrior side rather than the old chris christie mode. we will move on now. it is time to go in get a snack because there is lots to unpack of our matchup when we come right back. ♪

john: the annual jamboree known as cpac is upon us. we are both going to be down there in washington, d.c. on hand. curious to hear from you what the things or we will be looking for. everyone will be there. for whom is cpac the biggest deal? mark: jeb bush will almost certainly be asked about common core and immigration. that will be the first flesh and blood litmus test about how they feel about jeb bush. everyone can be at the star and that is a great opportunity for everyone there. john: we will be looking at donald trump who we are hearing

has hired some political advisors and he has done pretty well. where watching chris christie, that will be a big speech for him just as all the things he is trying to do to get himself set up. if you do not have plans for cpac, come hang out with us on the internet. we will be streaming the whole thing through bloombergpolitics.com. to give you a taste of all the red meat on offer, we put together a greatest hits canape and we grant full permission for the union to use it. >> we need to repeal every single word of obamacare. >> our ideas are better than their ideas and that is what we have to stand up for. >> the biggest, hottest collection of cpac classics. >> the irs should be eliminated

once and for all. >> get the hottest speeches. more than 82 full hours of hits, dozens of people who might run for president for only $9.99. >> let the sleeping giant of american enterprise create prosperity again. >> featuring the stars you love who are there to pump up the bass. the conservative base. >> i am all about the base. >> all about that base. no liberals. >> call now. no liberals. ♪

>> now we are going to

but hello i am pimm fox. the greek finance minister yanis varoufakis in an exclusive interview. he says he is counting on the european central bank to help the country avoid default, but he says the ecb owes greece $2 million. practices our money. they find a way -- >> this is our money.