>> that momentum is hard to maintain. caroline hyde. >> let us see how equities is opening up. dax record high. in fact, the global benchmark is 1% of -- of an all-time high. why the euphoria? it was mario draghi. two tents of a percent. yesterday, all about the fact that monday we start that 60 billion euro per month asset.

the stimulus package -- the details. draghi will keep on buying debt until inflation is back where they wanted. near the 2% level. so confident. it will help oil prices on the downside. we'll see 1.5% increase in gdp this year. it is all about the united states. 35,000 is the magic number. unemployment to 5.6%. jobs gaining for the 12th straight month. phenomenal stuff. u.s. treasuries -- after the moves yesterday. 2.11% when you're looking at the

u.s. 10 year debt. if you stop buying treasuries today, you will be out of the money. these yields rise to 2.6%. you will be out of pocket. all about the pickup in the u.s. economy. we do see the acceleration. a look at how it is affecting the rest of our market. the euro, currently flat. goldman sachs is saying it is going to be parroting. we saw moves in the euro yesterday. the dollar up 1%. 11 year low down.

i want to show you commodities as well. china, 7% growth. that is phenomenal. that has been hitting commodities. copper, 7/10 of a percent today. s.a.p. we had that breaking news. 2000 more jobs to go. 3/10 of a percent after it rose yesterday. tens of thousands of companies using sap to use -- to run their finances. they are ramping up the cloud very quickly. they offer their services online. you do not get so much bang for your buck so quickly. they are having to make some job cuts.

thomas cook unchanged. we are seeing moves into the stock by a chinese buyer. 73 million of your shares. i want to own 10% by the time i'm done. meanwhile, 4/10 of a percent by the end of the month, they will be facing their finds. -- facing their fines.. blacklisted countries could be at least $1.4 million. >> thank you for that roundup. the ecb president, mariota draghi, dominating the conversation. the euro lower. drug he says the stimulus is

helping growth. the inflation remains a big concern. >> the inflation projection has been revised downward. mainly reflecting the falling oil prices. >> and investors take on the rhetoric. stephen isaacs of the investment committee. stephen, glad to have you with us. a lot of the rhetoric came -- i listened to that news conference. triumphant in his approach. it is a bit early. >> i'm glad you picked up on that. we should say "bravo yuriko -- "bravo."

the last time we were in the abyss his comments were we will do whatever it takes. here he is 2.5 years later and he has managed the situation. now he has played his cards. he has come back with a confident projection of growth and inflation. mr. druggie is telling us -- mr. draghi is telling us the solid is the best growth. >> we were doing the ecb show yesterday. euro-dollar at a tenure low. is this a currency trader?

>> that is one of the reasons why the german should be leading the charge. in the sense that what is in this mixture of changes that may deliver a different picture for europe? one is in the changing currency. is it already in the price? anyone that is buying european equities -- as if they suddenly woken up to the fact that qe is starting next week. i would be concerned about that. deflation reform system. those forces do give a sense of risk off.

they may will drive the dollar higher. the dollar is the chief beneficiary of this strange set of events. >> it is strange. will buy sovereigns to the tune of -2%. today is jobs day. we can be -- we could be in for 12 straight months. fed governor saying waiting for the target may mean overshooting. when do you believe it will happen in terms of rate hike? more importantly, -- ex line --

>> i am concerned about the u.s.. all of the other data, domestic we focused companies, figures are still good. other figures are showing a significant change in tone. some people are saying that is because of the effects of shale oil. you take away growth in places like texas and you have got a different picture. some say it is the weather. i think it is the business cycle. >> is it fair to say that is contrary and? >> -- is it fair to say that is contraryian? >> when markets are certain and

they do not quite get it then you can get quite a change in the market positioning. that is the real concern. >> let us talk about the shift. there was an article yesterday the close on the s&p last year. $16.8 billion came from trader bonds. nearly $17 billion -- the diversions has never been this clear. would you advocate that as a reduced equity exposure? even if it is consensus that is it -- that it is an outlier? >> the market is focused on one of two stories. one of which is apple.

the prophet was only 2.5%. -- the prophet wasprofit was only 2.5%. >> why has no one else extrapolated the apple numbers? >> it is convenient to enjoy the high. it is difficult to say apple is going to failure to perform in 2015. i'm pointing out the risks that people are taking. the iphone 6. the smartphone game -- new products emerge. samsung just came out with fancy gloss. >> would you sell apple? >> yes, i would sell apple.

>> is it a longer term trade? or a whiplash? >> people will continue to sell all lot of products. a p/e ratio of 15 16. >> stephen, a you are going to stay with me. -- stephen, you are going to stay with me. have a look at this. thomas cook, china's group, is buying stake in thomas cook. s.a.p., this story we have -- s.a.p. has 2000 jobs.

s.a.p., the global software company. london, just coming back by about 1/10 of 1%. dekes trays at 11. more after the break -- dax trades at 11.

>> welcome back. i am manus cranny.

isaacs is with me. before we went to the break, he said bonds are not going anywhere. cling to me -- explain to me why -- that is the state co-of where we are. >> i think it will grow at around those levels in sheer. on that basis, we have a double's mindset. chairman who is trying to see through short-term pressures. that context means rates do not rise. we are in a global context.

after qe europe where bond yields come down. that means 2.1 -- 2.2% yields in u.s. are attractive to global investors. they are a value. another factor is the federal reserve owns half of dated treasuries. 10 years or longer. where are the sellers? who are going to be selling these bonds? if there are no sellers, there is a net. the cap on the yields high. the fed aggressively raises rates. if that happens, i am wrong. secondly read the tea leaves. the u.s. business cycle, if you go back 100 or more years there

is something called the business cycle. every postwar economic extraction in the u.s. is about five years. we are pushing out the boundaries. >> the paradigm is completely different. the recovery, based on technology, jobs. >> every time we get toward the end of a business cycle -- i'm afraid i do not agree with you. >> what is different? >> there's an argument to say there has not been an interest rate rise. this time round, the fed has not gone anywhere. there have been higher market rates.

interest rate pressures have changed. the bottom is around 1.5%. we have been bouncing higher since then. there's an argument to say the market has done a little bit. what happens in the business cycle is the competition goes up. the capacity overwhelms pricing and earnings. >> we did not quite get as much -- it is not that at all. i'm curious. >> the global is is cycle -- the global business cycle -- brazil turkey, many emerging markets -- that allows them to export. >> do you think those moves will stand? is it that your view? >> what does it do to global

deflation? there is an export and global deflation everywhere. that is our concern. once deflation takes root -- as we saw japan -- it is far more destructive to asset prices. the market at the moment is paying attention. bond coupons if you're saving -- that is our key concern. >> let us leave it there. we could have gone on. that is where we are going to and. stephen isaacs, chairman of the committee. >> coming up, u.s. banks. yes, it is true. all 31 banks. what areas are still concerned

for the market. find out after the break. ♪

>> letters bring you up to speed for him -- let's bring you up to speed on some of our top stories. stake is worth 92 million pounds. europe's biggest software company, s.a.p. is cutting over 2000 jobs.

the company ships its focus to internet-based applications. according to a brief, the settlement would resolve a separate moderate -- separate money laundering matter. let us keep an eye on banking. a marked improvement from the dark days of financial crisis. the big banks were subjected to u.s. federal reserve's stress tests. they passed. caroline hyde is here to elaborate. they do these tests. much curley burley is made -- much hurly burly is made. why do we care? >> they can whether a storm.

stock market plummet by 63%. this is the kind of pain the u.s. reserve revels in. it makes each bank work out whether they can whether the storm. they can. they are more financially -- this is the first time since these tests have been run. they make these banks jump through hoops. it is getting better. there is four to $90 billion. -- there is $490 billion.

>> if i am right, this is a quantitive estimate. there is part two of the drama. some people say part two is more interesting. what is next week about? >> thursday is when you have to wait until. that is when the reserve will say gay ornate. -- will say yeah they ornate. nay. if they are skirting near that requirement, they may not be able to. if they only managed to keep a percent in the coffers. last year, citigroup past -- citigroup passed. this is another issue. goldman sachs only had 6.1 in

the capital buffer. >> skin of their teeth. up next, emerging markets. stay with us for that conversation. ♪

>> welcome back to on the move. i'm manus cranny. 30 minutes into the trading day. it is the end of a busy week. we know the shape and the size. we know the ecb will buy bonds. negative 2/10 of 1%. where will the euro go to? a parity on the euro-dollar. let us see what is going on in the markets. caroline has your market check. >> top of the leaderboard. up 16.5%.

the united kingdom. better love from china. on by billionaire. -- owned by billionaire. he is buying shares. synergy is to be had with some of the companies. feeling the warm breezes blowing from that particular purchase. this particular company trading up on some speculation in the market. oil and gas engineer. perhaps ge capital is buying it up. here we have it at 180. people are buying it. meanwhile, on the downside, -- this is on the back of a sale of shares.

owns 40%. that is a company that does testing in their laboratory. selling 10.9% on this particular company. when dell, wants to be of to splash the cast -- splash the cash. bureau veritas on the downside. >> caroline, thank you very much. the prime minister made his first visit to moscow yesterday. one of the items is the situation in the ukraine. >> we were of my -- we were of one mind that the parties must agree on the 12th of february. i am certain this opens the

possibility of a peace conference. certainly for launching a dialogue between tf -- between kiev. >> henry meyer joins us. where are we with the eu's relationship with europe? have they got the wherewithal and strength to become more aggressive in sanctions if this agreement is broken? >> eu is hoping the agreement will be implemented. there are different views on that within the eu. italy which became the first country to convert and have a bilateral visit. an indication that they are

camping on this agreement working. the u.s. has a spoken about thousands of russian troops, which remain inside of the ukraine -- russia denying this of course. the issue with sanctions is the eu is going to have to decide whether to renew sanctions that come up in july. a decision whether to extend them. russia is very keen. this is going to be a difficult decision. on the one hand, they want to keep the pressure on russia to stick with the agreement. on the other hand, they have economic interests. >> henry, you have this event going on with the opposition leader. being in detention for 15 days. these things are well

orchestrated as part of a sequencing. how significant is the release go -- is the release? >> the idea was to keep him inside so he would not be able to lead and opposition march. what happened that march turned into a memorial march to make -- to nemtsov close to the kremlin. blaming the political leadership for having to order the tip -- the killing. when he comes up, he's going to be trying to build any momentum from that march. it attracted 50,000 people. it is going to be difficult for

him to do that. the opposition is in disarray. >> henry, let us leave it there. >> sticking with russia, cpi making 16.7% yesterday. russia is dealing with sanctions from the u.s. and the eu over ukraine. the loyal -- the lower oil prices is hitting russia as well. you have the dollar ruble. tracking against brent. one of the most important aspects as many analysts have referred to. thank you for joining us, craig. when you look at this story -- the political situation moves quite quickly -- oil is a key part of the russia story.

based at 60 bucks. inflation in the past days is edging down. where are we? >> this year is going to be a bad year for russia. upgrading the forecast for russian inflation. 4.9%, but that is not the worst on the streets. in terms of inflation, oil -- russia has shot itself in the foot with this on imported food. >> what is the business -- what is the biggest risk? >> unless you think oil can go further that is a separate issue. how much worse can it get?

that is one thing that will hit russia. otherwise, the global economy has affected this year. it is harder to see a bigger risk at the moment. >> russian equities relative to emerging markets i suppose there's a reason -- looks like a duck, walks like a duck, it is a duck. the mathematics say that russia offers value. equity index rising this year. the ruble is coming back low 60. are the markets already pricer than what you just said? a more benevolent view? >> a small posturing of price could lead to a better performance.

wider ranging bans on export in russia. it could get worse as well. >> think governor williams. in honolulu saying june is when start getting it going. you have oil in terms of trying to find price around $62. all around, what is your sense? where would you want to be positioned for 2015 as you look at it economically? >> one thing we are concerned -- one thing we are concerned about -- anyone with exposure to financing is going to feel the

pain. someone might look at this -- the financial requirements. in that measure, turkey is expose south africa is exposed. >> we are seeing the lira make new records. really putting pressure -- you talk about a relationship. yet central banks and politics. you have the lira aggressively moving. do you expect further moves on those pressure countries in terms of rate? >> turkey's strength -- more broadly, yes. brazil, that is a potential problem spot. >> what do you make of rue soft.

>> she backpedals on all campaign promises. i am a shocked as you are. she is a hand that she is having a hands-off approach. partly because of her being involved would make things worse. she does not want to be associated. if it does exceeds, she says -- i think she is going to struggle to put anything into the palminteri process. -- parliamentary process. impeachment is being discussed in relation to the petrol brass. it is a possibility. otherwise, you can say

politicians lie in campaigns. she will be around for a while. unless the scandal and also completely. >> what a wonderful line. you can come back during the british political campaign. thank you so much for being with us. coming up, sap says 2000 jobs is going. we will bring you the latest. the journalists who broke the news. where does he work? bloomberg. ♪

>> let us bring you up to speed with top stories. chinese investors with a 5% stake. the deal will allow thomas cook to collaborate with other traveling businesses, including club med. merrill lynch is being sued by two financial advisors. the former trainees accused the company of violating fair labor standards. damages exceed $5 million. harrison ford is recovering in the hospital after his plane crash landed on a golf course in

california. the 72-year-old is said to be in stable condition. he was flying solo in the plane when it came down. europe's -- one of the biggest companies, sap has breaking news this morning. forgive me we're going to go to the reporter who broke the s.a.p. story. he is joining us now to talk about this. and, you talk to stefan rice -- aaron, you talked to stefan rice. what are the details? >> hi good morning. i spoke to the head of hr. sap is this huge enterprise

software company. it runs back office and front office operations. tens of thousands of companies. this is the second round of cuts. the ceo of sap is saying they are eliminating 2200 positions this year. that is on top of the workforce reduction they did last year. the hr lead says they have found new places for some of these people within the organization. >> this market shift in strategy -- every time i have spoken with him. he keeps saying about the cloud. the transition to the cloud. the cloud is nowhere near ready to balance sap. it is a business -- a growth.

>> you're talking about bill mcdermott. he has been there a long time. he joined sap in 2002. he ascended to co-ceo five years ago. he is now the sole and ceo of sap. he realizes the ground is shifting from under them. things are changing. anyway the corporations is undergoing a seat change. what you're referring to is the fact that sap has made a great business -- some 20 billion euros per year. software that companies install. it is a very profitable business. what a shifting is more companies is wanting to rent software over the web. it is less lucrative in the

short-term, so squeezing sap's profit margin. that is behind this cost reduction we are seeing. >> aaron things for breaking the story. as we get a little bit more, we will come back to you. one of our main german stories this morning. it involves violating sanctions. caroline joins me on set with this news. we knew this was coming. >> we did. the second-biggest lender in germany. as soon as this month we may see them pay $1.4 billion to settle accusations leveled that they violated their sanctions rules. the dealings with blacklisted countries.

they're having to pay $1.4 billion. that is combined. they can be divvied out to the justice department, the federal reserve, the u.s. department of financial services. the list goes on. everyone wants their pound of flesh. this is something that is being a doubt. -- this is something that's being eat out. ked out. agreed to pay 8.9 billion dollars. this is a part of a deferred prosecution agreement. sort of getting two birds with one stone. 22 cases against financial firms in 2000 nine -- in 2009 about sanctions.

>> how they deal with it is always fascinating in terms of whether they plead guilty. this is not the first time they have had problems, is it? >> 2011, it's the first time. it was a hundred $75,000. this time, it was from 2005. 10 years ago they were accused of violating cuba's control asset violations. 70% of the commerzbank is held by germans. trying to get itself back to normal. trying to repay the government. trying to get better capital. >> caroline, thanks for that. coming up bailouts.

3% of the country's gdp. we spoke to the prime minister. find out what he had to say. after the break. ♪

>> southern european island nation of ball to is the biggest contributor by proportions to the grace bailout according to the country's prime minister.

johnson spoke to the prime minister yesterday. ask for his thoughts on the greek bailout -- asked for his thoughts on the greek bailout. >> we had some red lines. one of the red lines is that we agreed that we would not accept any sort of haircut. we want our money back. to get our money back, we need greece not to default. we need greece to stay in the eurozone. we need greece to grow. >> speaking to a very young guy johnson. >> let you pointed that one out. >> playing games of me? when you look at the numbers on that greek bailout, you can understand. >> the ball tease are not happy -- the baltese are not happy.

he is interested in duration extension. he considered the idea of gdp bonds. he is not against that. he is against the idea that we do not get our money back. when you put 3% and, that is quite a lot of cash. >> i do not know whether you are toying with me as far as the subject matter. i'm going to say to you, what is big in the pulse? >> ellis kitchen was sold. he has set up another company called pennies bathroom. that is what i have kept secret. ella was his child. his other child patrick, he is

setting up a business. >> ok. maybe i need another one. i will join you on the pulse for a few market checks. ♪

guy:the euro continues to trade softer after investors digest the ecb's buying plan. the u.s. released payroll data. a strong number may push the feds towards a rate hike. sap plans to cut more than 2000 jobs in it's ceo's second big round of playoffs. guy: