will today's report shifted the view of janet yellen? the dollar shifts ever stronger. olivia wants to forget the apple watch. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." olivia timex sterns joins me. olivia: and about 2.5 hours, the government releases the employment report. it may be as much about the weather, as it is about the jobs. the data may distort the report. bad weather made a lee -- may delay the release of the report. the jobless rate will probably drop 0.1% to 5.6%.

vladimir putin had his first state to state visit since the beginning of the ukraine conflict. matteo renzi met with putin. putin said the two agreed on ukraine. >> we were of one mind that the conflicting parties must strictly comply with the agreements reached in minsk on the 12th of february. i am certain that this opens the possibility for a comprehensive settlement and from watching a direct dialogue between kiev donetsk, and luhansk. olivia: the cease-fire agreement has been holding in recent days. the big banks all past their stress tests. all 31 banks have enough capital to survive a financial crisis. it is the first time since the stress tests were launched in 2009 that every firm has passed.

goldman sachs barely made the cut. goldman will not be a low to match the dividends and share buybacks it rewarded investors with last year. a fraud involving apple pay. criminals have been typing stolen credit card numbers into apple pay and trying to make purchases. banks require users to know call them before they activate credit cards. both runways at laguardia airport are open this morning after the delta airliner skidded off the runway after landing in a snowstorm. one passenger said it was like fishtailing in a car, a much larger car. a federal safety team is investigating. >> this particular runway had been plowed shortly before the incident.

pilots on other planes reported good braking action. olivia: actor harrison ford is recovering after crash landing his own plane on a golf course near santa monica, california. he told air-traffic controllers he lost the engine during the flight. his injuries are not life-threatening. people took advantage of the snowstorm to protest a ban of sliding on capitol hill. senate democratic leader harry reid has been asked that he left that ban. tom: it is a great hill. i would be out there in a heartbeat. olivia: it is almost cruel not to let the kids slide. flying drones, i understand, but sledding. tom: let's look at equities,

bonds, currency, commodities. the jobs report will come dribbling out after 8:30. futures are flat. the euro is breathtaking. we could stop and do two hours right now on it. we are truly on a parity watch. moving on to the next screen. buoyant equity markets. gold is back under 1200. the brazilian riel breaking through. turkish lira. olivia: record lows in emergency currencies. what is on the screen is the collateral damage, which is a stronger dollar. tom: let's go to the bloomberg terminal. here we go back.

this is where you decide if you should look at the west wing or the east wing. [laughter] what we need is a strong dollar. america believes in a strong dollar policy. weakness. we are getting going there right now. there it is. olivia: and there it is on all the big s&p 500 companies. tom: we will talk to a wonderful set of guests for four hours this morning. it is jobs day. dribbling and with weather-related issues in washington. peter cook is that our news bureau in washington. give us the update on what we are going to observe at 8:30. peter: what is going to happen

this is the first time that this has happened in my covering the jobs report but because the federal government is delayed for two hours this morning, that means that folks at the labor department who normally would be in the office and giving this report to those of us who are reporters covering it at 8:00 in a closed, locked room and then we release that information at eight: 30 they are going to post this information live online at 8:30 to the website and that is when we will get this information. it may not be precisely at 8:30 and it may dribble out over time, but the goal is to post it as close to them as possible and we will be looking at it just like everybody else. olivia: fortunately, you did make it into the office through the snow. walk us through the forecast. peter: the forecast for the jobs report and i can tell you it is 12 degrees outside i used to do

the weather, too. we will limited to jobs right now. [laughter] 235 thousand jobs added last month, the unemployment rate ticking down solid numbers to be sure. it has been a strong three months. the weather is a factor that needs to be considered this time around, given what has happened in the northeast. the thing that everyone is going to be looking at average hourly earnings. that's all such a big pop last month. they're waiting to see whether there is some indication that there is real traction there. tom: thank you so much. alan krueger will join us later. ubs has won countless economic forecasting awards, backed by a resilient optimism on the economic experience.

why are so many americans miserable? let's get right to the theory. these are great reports. things are great, but a hunk of america is left out of this joy. why is that? >> americans of not embraced the fact that the labor market has gone -- gotten much better. no one is willing to quit their job. you are last in, first out. people are saying, i'm not willing to walk away from the job i just got to get the better job. the quitting is not happening at the pace you would like. we are seeing a slight take up in claims. -- tick up in claims. that is a sign of a healthier labor market. tom: we have come down and we are well under 6% and we are

going to some nirvana number. where is the ubs calculation of what normal unemployment is? drew: right now it is about 6%. tom: you are stunningly outliers. drew: we are talking about wage growth because it is clearly above 5%. it does not look like there is a huge amount of pressure, but if you were to chart wages versus the number of job openings to unemployment, what you would find is that we are at a point where it is close to vertical. tom: this is critical. this jobs report is critical for janet yellen. olivia: you are saying we are already at nehru. how does janet yellen engage? drew: she probably thinks we are

approaching it quickly. the comments from the president of the san francisco fed were very telling. he is saying, we should think about rate hikes in june. tom: did you get the memo that we don't do newtonian mechanics in march? row equals mv. olivia: let's please not. why is it so stagnant? drew: in part because no one is willing to quit. you don't pay up employees because you like them. olivia: his unwillingness to quit a problem of perception or attitude or because there really is a two-tiered american economy? drew: if there a two-tiered american economy it is kind of

hard to see who is winning. i don't believe in the two-tiered labor market in the same way i don't believe that the u.s. middle class is dying. we just don't address -- adjust the metrics we use. tom: does the dollar matter or does it begin to matter as we go into 2015? drew: it does not matter as much as people think a to the fed it does not matter at all. tom: what is that? drew: look at the transcripts from 1998. nothing mattered to them until it began to affect u.s. market functioning. i have not seen a move yet that would tell me that u.s. market functioning is affected. tom: a great first briefing from drew matus. olivia: wages do matter. that brings us to our twitter question of the day. do you think we should raise the minimum wage in the u.s.? this is "bloomberg surveillance."

happy friday. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia sterns is with me on this jobs day. olivia: the report may be as much about the weather as it is about jobs. bad weather in washington may delay the release of the report. vladimir putin had his first state to state visit by european leader since the ukraine conflict. he met with the italian prime minister and they agreed to set up a $1 billion investment fund. leaders of the palestinian

liberation organization want to suspend its security deal with israel. plo leaders say it is an occupying power, so they should pay to keep peace in the territory. amazon is trying to reach more shoppers in china. they are opening a store on a site owned by alibaba. google is hoping california drivers shop for car insurance. the new feature compares quotes from up to 14 participating carriers. policies can then be bought online through agents with google receiving a cut from the insurance sale. ancient mars held more water. much of the red planet's northern hemisphere was wet for millions of years.

it offers fresh evidence that mars might have sustained life. tom: very good. the mars thing is amazing. the unmanned spacecraft effort of the last couple years. we are going to land on some planet this year. olivia: courtesy of elon musk. new currency, new casualties in the currency war. new record lows in the past few weeks. the euro has dropped to 1.09 against the dollar for the first time in over 11 years. sebastian, rbs says the euro could hit parity as soon as next month. sebastian: we are looking for a 1.05 at the tip end of this process. there is a lot of deleveraging

which is happening right now. the market is looking for three targets. the third target is 1.05. it is very rare that the market gets what it wants. tom: let's put this into historical perspective. bring up these three factoids on the strong dollar. the dollar strengthened 16% off the bottom. the move is 43% of the rubin dollar move. how big is big in your world? how big is dollar dynamics? sebastian: it is big because we are looking at low volatility for a long amount of time. from a historical point of view, it is not a big deal. tom: so what matters? sebastian: you have to put it in context.

there was a rapid emergence of emerging markets. as they did, the overshot the markets. tom: financial markets are flat on their back. olivia: a very interesting op-ed from richard sharma as always. is this about the innate strength of the u.s. economy or weakness abroad? sebastian: it is linked to the rise of the dollar and exposing a lot of the weaknesses in emerging markets. it is also because the ecb and the boj have been aggressive to weaken currencies. tom: we have an arch u.s. economist in drew matus and we have a foreign exchange guy. do you drive a ferrari? drew matus how does dollar dynamics change our imports?

is olivia going to get the bmw she has always wanted? drew: if you want to look for an effect inside the u.s., it is consumer preferences. people are making more money and they are going to spend the money on imports. exports tend to be much less elastic. if the price changes around -- tom: imports do tend to change. drew: yes. tom: i want to drag you into it. this janet yellen care about this discussion? sebastian: to some extent. they are very happy in the u.s. emerging markets are going to repack themselves and the u.s. is going to have easy financing. for the u.s., it doesn't matter. it means there is a bit of a deflationary shock which is going to percolate to the u.s.

it is a strong consumer at low inflation, which is an odd situation. tom: the deflationary impulse is not something that happens by june or september. drew: absolutely. and i would disagree. i would say there is little evidence to suggest that we import deflation outside of things like apparel, which is a miniscule part. tom: are we allowed to have guests that disagree on friday? [laughter] drew: we are disagreeing with smiles on our faces. olivia: we have had 17 central banks worldwide cut rates this year and it is march 6. when does this end? sebastian: i think we are getting closer. fx will overshoot interest rates . emerging markets, we are still uncovering damages places that

have not reacted completely. drew: if the rize war we are all allies. if the u.s. hikes rates and the ecb is easing, we take pressure off of the other central banks. olivia: but american companies take the hit with the stronger dollar. sebastian galy thank you for joining us. tom: we have another conversation coming up. alan krueger will join us in our next hour. we will focus much more on the debate on your wage. it is jobs day. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." olivia sterns has a big morning must-read. olivia: the elephants are out at the ringling brothers barnum and bailey circus. "the cruelest show on earth." there was a year investigation back in 2011. many of these elephants are actually physically lame because they spend so much time being forced to balance. tom: i would like to hear the debate. olivia: it does feel like it is fallout from "blackfish."

they are trying to get ahead of this. tom: you are saying ringling brothers is doing this because they see what is coming? olivia: yes. kids go to the circus and they worry about the animals. you said you were worried about the tigers. elephants are smart, social animals and they should not be in cages all day long. tom: ok. olivia: i think it is good news. no more animals, no more elephants millions of americans have been forced to skip school or work. we will discuss how the recent weather will affect the jobs report. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." alan krueger in our next hour. olivia: the economy is coming on the best three-month hiring spree in 17 years and there may have been more of the same in february. the jobs report comes out in two hours from now. economists say that employers added to lunch at 35,000 jobs last month -- 235000 jobs last month.

t bank met with a european leader in a state to state visit for the first time since the ukraine crisis. italy called russia a privileged partner. they said the tubing agree on ukraine. >> we were of my mind -- one mind that the parties must agree with the agreements in minsk. olivia: putin was talking about the latest cease-fire agreement, which has been holding in recent days. another development in the story of hillary clinton and her personal e-mail account. the washington post said the state department is reviewing the e-mails to see of clinton violated policies covering sensitive information. they are looking at tens of thousands of her e-mails to see

if they can be released to the public. >> last year, the department sent a letter to representatives of the former secretaries of state requesting that they submit any records in their possession for proper preservation. in response secretary clinton provided her e-mails. olivia: she submitted 55,000 pages of e-mails to the state department already. officials are letting a train that derailed unexploded burn itself out. people living nearby were evacuated. no injuries were reported. there is one catch to the plan to launch a wireless service. it will not even work on other phones that use google plus android operating system.

it will allow google to show off its technology. a granola maker named one of its cereals haulin' oats. tom: they are killing me. daryl go get them. olivia: i can't go for that. they have been accused of violating trademark protections. the owner of early responded with a hall and oates song of her own. tom: we are going to talk about this later. the copyright usage and all that. olivia: i like it. tom: the weather. there was a time when winter was winter and economists adjusted for snow by taking three days o ff. no more. this year has brought an uncommon february.

drew matus, the weather. drew: we came down a little bit because of the weather, but last winter was bad, too. the other part of it is simply that a lot of the united states did not have bad weather. this is one of those cases where everybody is sitting in new york thinking about how bad things are, but you are not on the california coast. tom: natural gas used to correlate out of what are the temperature in the new york subway was. this is optimism when we did not have it. this is the unemployment report. it was an ugly 10%-12%. i did not realize how this all in unemployment rate has really come down quite well. drew: it has come down quite

well. this is my least favorite indicator on the planet, to be honest with you. tom: thank you. that is why i put it up there. [laughter] drew: america has a strong bias to tsonga stored the question of would you take a job if you are offered one. america has a strong bias toward work. olivia: that is the premise of the entire season three of "house of cards." drew: i watched the bbc version. tom: this goes to slack. slack is so 2014. olivia: you don't like that metric? black rock is looking at productivity that has been a little soggy. drew: he has a great point. smart guy. here is what i think about. some of the gdp b numbers don't

make a lot of sense. we are forced to balance between what we know and what we think we know. the employment numbers are so much easier to calculate than the gdp numbers that i have to put my money on the fact that we would not be creating jobs if firms were not making money and selling things. i think gdp numbers are probably a little off and are understating the activity. we could do a special on why gdp is wrong and why we are not capturing it. olivia: please don't get him excited. tom: yes! drew: i think you will see productivity numbers get reese -- revise tire. olivia: i went to a lunch yesterday with a couple of investors at the 21 club. tom: stop, stop, stop. we were done at fresh spending eight dollars on an avocado sandwich and you were at 21? olivia: i was at 21 -- for work

purposes. drew: did you bring your jacket? you don't want to have to borrow. olivia: the point is, these guys are excited. tom: bring this in as a leading indicator. drew: this is consistent with the ubs view. as people sniff out rate hikes you will see an acceleration in capex. tom: we seek capex and better industrial america. where does the rate get to be too low? drew: once you get below 5%, you tend to get to that point. the fed is well behind. they have already waited two years too long. they have already built the lag in. tom: let me translate that for you.

drew just took a shot at alan zentner. [laughter] olivia: congratulations. it is international women's day on sunday. that gives us a reason to talk about how far women have come in corporate america. according to the single best chart, we still have a long way to go. this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪

tom: let's get to our single best chart. olivia: we are focusing on women head of international women's day. we are taking a look at the number of women who run big companies. there are more men named john who run s&p 1500 companies then there are women. only 4% are women. no tom's on there. eve says you can laugh about this cry about this, or roll your eyes and do something about it. this chart illustrates something we have been talking about for years. everybody seems to be on board and in agreement about doing something about it and improve on it.

what has actually changed? eve: 19.2% of all s&p 500 board members are women. 19.2%. we are moving but it is slow, really slow. it took three years to go from 16.3% to 16.9%. over just last year it went to over 19%. it is still abysmal in a country where the majority of college degrees and graduate degrees and phd's are all awarded to women. over 50% of degrees are awarded to women and yet under 20% have those names or are men. there are answers. i want to see us get to parity which means 50% in my book. there are a few different ways to get there. business leaders need to

understand that there is a financial reason and a business imperative to get to parity. companies that have more women on their boards have stronger financials and the research is out there that shows that strong correlation. once they recognize the financial imperative, they can do the move forward. olivia: there are various strategies. there are also initiatives to get more female board directors. what actually works? eve: one of the companies that we invest in, innovation helps in terms of recognizing that there is a financial reason and

that business leaders need to look for women for their boards. the pipeline of women is strong. there are many women who are leaning in. the male board members need to move over. one of the answers is really to have tactful term limits so that men do move over. olivia: there has been modest progress, but there is still the additional glass ceiling of getting to the top job. dupont and ibm are the only two dow industrial companies run by women. why is it that much harder to take the top job? tom: why is it harder for ruse to take over james gorman's job? i was going to get you in the timeout chair on that one.

eve: i think it takes innovation . a biotech company in the boston area their ceo and diversity officer have put their heads together to do something about this. they have a program that they just started college raising the bar. they are trading women employees -- training women employees to be board members and other companies. olivia: thank you so much. tom: top photos. olivia: venice, california. harrison ford crashed a vintage world war ii plane on a golf course. he was taken to a hospital with a broken arm. he is expected to make a full recovery. tom: the buzz was that it was

remarkable. there is a huge buzz that he was able to bring the plane down. olivia: he clearly had some flight training. in north carolina, the world's largest and fastest roller coaster. tom: why do i think all morgan stanley wealth managers are going to be on a road trip here? [laughter] i hate roller coasters. i never got it. olivia: pretty impressive. a webcam spotted a bald eagle. eagle stay warm by eating and fluffing their feathers. this couple's bigs or expect -- eggs are expected to hatch soon.

tom: can i do a shout out? no one in america has done more on this than henry paulson. he has done it and put his money where his mouth is consistently. he single-handedly saved a species. olivia: some say he also saved the financial system. tom: eagles. olivia: coming up, smart watches are all the rage. mechanical timepieces are surviving the test of these technological times. that conversation is next. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we will be back. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day. bill gross and jim glassman will join us on bloomberg radio. betty liu will have alan krueger with her. we have our top headlines. olivia: it is jobs day in america. the federal government releases

february's jobs report and it may be as much about the weather as it is about jobs. the weather in washington may also delay the release of the report. in moscow, vladimir putin had his first state to state visit from a european leader with matteo renzi. a woman who nearly died in the boston marathon bombing offers her testimony and writes an intense message to the defendant. she addressed the accused man directly, calling him a coward. singh, you can't handle the fact that what you tried to destroy only made stronger. she lost her left leg in the explosion at the finish line. america's increased oil output is creating a problem. where to put it. they oil supplies are almost 7% of capacity.

they might be forced to sell oil a cheaper prices. the latest wintry blast paradise -- paralyzed much of the nation. the famed iditarod sled dog race because there is not enough snow in alaska. the weather that pounded the eastern u.s. left alaska fairly warm. it is climate change, not global warming. i do want to get hate mail for that. tom: apple is expected to birth a watch on monday. you won't hear any taking, which is the point. adults still aspire they want to watch that ticks. shameless plug this is a really interesting issue about what i do on the weekend. i'm a casual guy on the weekend and it is a casual revolution.

these are beautiful timepieces. what are they? >> we have a couple of watches from a french watchmaker. the watches are made in switzerland, he is french. right in the middle of downtown geneva, these are all made. they produce about 900 watches per year. they are innovating on the mechanical front. tom: what happens when everyone -- when everyone runs out to get a digital watch? >> i do think affluent people will buy after -- apple watches. tom: you are wearing a 40-year-old rolex on your wrist. will you buy an apple watch? >> i probably will. olivia: i am thinking about it.

there were rumors there was going to be a 24 carat gold watch and i will not buy that one. do you think that is going to sell? >> i think it might. if anyone can change our behavior, it is apple. olivia: i have spoken to the ceo terry stern about this. he has said he is worried about the apple watch because it gets the new generation back into the norm. >> i think that is very true. while i will buy an apple watch for sure, i am not getting rid of my 40-year-old rolex. i will not stop lusting after these kind of watches. it is a companion device, not something that will replace it. tom: i am advancing one day at a time with my antique watch

because of the leap days in february. the calendar did not advance. why am i still doing this? >> there are watches that will do it for you. they have kind of come up with everything. drew: did they make it past the millennium? >> everyone hundred years you have to reset the perpetual calendar. they are not getting hammered but they are having to make adjustments. there was a price decrease in the united states, which was huge. this watch is an investment, as much as an accessory or a toy. when you buy a watch on monday and someone announces a price decrease on tuesday, they have essentially devalued your asset overnight. olivia: what is the hottest thing in watches right now? >> the boston world trade show. it starts in just two weeks in switzerland.

we will see everything that we will be buying for the next year. tom: what watch does drew matus need? give us a name of a swiss watch. drew: there are high watches made in the u.s. now. >> in pretty small numbers. olivia: in detroit. drew: in lancaster. >> for me, the travel watch to beat is the rolex gmt. olivia: when are we going to see a super high-end watch on a chinese or muslim calendar? >> we have seen them. there are arabic dials and calendars. the market might have overcommitted a little bit to china. tom: the deal here is of drew matus nails the number, he gets a complementary watch him aright? >> if you want to give him one

i fully support that. tom: thank you so much. a terrific magazine with great insight. let's get insight from our foreign exchange report. the euro under a 1.10. that is a wow statistic. alan krueger is next. ♪

>> "bloomberg surveillance this

is "bloomberg surveillance." >>tom: there is a mystery to when we will see wages rise. the dollar shifts ever stronger. when will a dollar become too strong? the blurred madness of the new copyright theft. the estate of marvin gay asks what's going on? this is "bloomberg surveillance ." it is friday, march 6. joining me, olivia sterns s. olivia: unusually cold temperatures and record amounts of snow have made -- may delay the release of the report. out of 235 -- added 235,000

jobs. they say the jobless rate will drop to 5.6%. vladimir putin had his first face-to-face visit to a european leader in the ukraine conflict. putin called italy a privileged partner and the to set up a $2 billion investment fund. he said the to agree on ukraine. -- two agree on ukraine. >> the conflicting parties must strictly comply with the agreement. i'm certain this opens the possibility for a comprehensive peace settlement and for launching a direct dialogue between kiev -- olivia: putin was talking about the cease-fire agreement which has been holding in recent days. the banks all got a passing grade. all 31 banks subjected to a

stress test have enough capital to survive a financial crisis . goldman sachs barely made the cut, suggesting the total risk-based capital ratio barely met the minimum. they won't be allowed to match the dividend share buybacks of last year. fraud involving apple pay. criminals have been typing stolen credit card numbers into apple pay and then try to make purchases. that has prompted banks to require users to call them first before they can activate credit cards used on the service. the delta jetliner this get off the runway at laguardia is now removed be her both runways at the airport reopened several hours after the accident yesterday. six people were hurt. they will check the cockpit data and voice recorders.

supervisors -- the runway had appeared to be in good shape. >> this particular runway had been plowed shortly before the incident. pilots on other planes reported good braking action. olivia: harrison ford is recovering after crash landing his plane on a golf course. he told air-traffic controllers he lost the engine. the actor's injuries are not life-threatening. lawbreakers on capitol hill. if you people took advantage of the snowstorm to protest -- a ban on sledding. there were a fair amount of cameras around. a capitol police officer asked this letters to take it elsewhere. harry reid has been asked to lift the ban. -- asked the sledders. tom: how about a data check

before the jobs report? currencies is the litmus paper right now. 33 all per dollar -- 33 all per peter cook has seen -- what is different on this jobs day? >> those of us who go into a locked closet at the labor department at 8:00 eastern time normally to get a sneak peak of the jobs data will not be able to do so because the government is facing a two hour delay because of the weather. instead the numbers will go live at 8:30 a.m. eastern time on the website and we will get to look at it along with everyone else. he have our team ready to go to give you some context that it may take a few moments for us to get to the headline numbers and

dig deeper into the report. all the more recent people should be watching bloomberg television today to get those numbers tom: a shameless plug. >> of course. the weather is important. for the report itself, there could be some weather noise in there as well. olivia: nobody cares about the headline number anymore now that we are below 6%. everyone wants to know about wages. >> it is so important you we . after the big pop we saw a month ago of 0.5% the question is, is there going to be some traction for wages? are americans going to have a little more in their wallets? we will see if this report gives us any indication of that. tom: we rip up the script. alan krueger with us, the former

chairman of the president's council of economic advisers. what is the deal with the weather? >> the weather can affect the numbers, no question. unprecedented for them to delay holding this delay releasing the numbers. tom: you were a big shot in washington for the president sitting in the west wing and that guy from princeton shows up. when you walk on that floor at bls, who do you visit? >> i rarely walk down the floor of bls. just once did i give a speech there. other interactions were over the phone or they would deliver the reports to my office but it would be rare for me to go over there. tom: let's start with the jobs they coverage. -- jobs they coverage. why isn't jason furman, why

isn't the president taking a victory lap on this fabulous job growth we are seeing? >> i don't think the american people are fully feeling it. that takes some time. we saw that in the mid-1990's. the president told me last time i saw him that the economy got much better after i left. he said we are still trying to decide -- olivia: the president went to detroit and did a victory lap. how far away are we from -- >> by the end of 2015. tom: drew was on earlier with the stunning number of 6%. he says we are essentially there now. >> i would say low 5%. tom: the backup for us is the

equities market. that is not bad. >> not bad at all. pretty fairly valued been we . you have to look at secular growth -- gdp is fine and it will be slow growth. look within the markets to see where you -- if you get wage inflation down the road, tax cuts from energy, what areas will do well? we think the refining sector. they are pockets that will do well in pockets that won't do well because they are commodities. olivia: gdp is looking good and unemployment is looking good. productivity is looking wobbly. >> we should be worried if it persists. the numbers continually get revised.

it may be that we look back and we say that gdp growth was faster. i would wait before we make conclusions about productivity growth. olivia: we are much lower than 3%. >> we have strong job growth. it is possible that productivity is declining. i wouldn't be surprised if we have problems measuring output. tom: i look at it as a three ratio function. there is a lot of noise. >> absolutely. we have trouble measuring gdp in the sectors that have been growing. tom: this raging debate, is at one america or two americas? do you reaffirm the janet yellen's challenge that we have

two economies? >> absolutely. it is affecting consumption. tom: is it affecting investment that leads to marginal job growth down the road? >> it could possibly be but then we would expect to see faster productivity growth that we are seeing an investment has been rather adamantly -- rather ordinary. don't forget the undefeated princeton women's team. olivia: did for l williams and robin thicke rip off marvin gay? ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. how about a morning must-read? i'm gasping over the jobs report. generous electric -- the idea of his long tenure at ge. it is possible that the eventual chosen one may be someone hardly anyone outside ge has heard of yet. a great column on what jack

welch did. the beginning of the discussion of this american icon, how you move on to the next person. olivia: a fascinating discussion. i want to go back to professor krueger. we have cheap oil. >> that is one factor. the energy revolution will help the manufacturing sector. the rise in compensation costs are brought is helping to bring more manufacturing jobs back home. >>olivia: i know you have spoken with ge many times. what is your take away? >> jeff, like any president -- you are given the cards you are dealt. he was given some cards. there has been a lot of controversy. he is certainly vital right now. my take from a distance is you

have a 15 year tenure with a lot of challenges coming out of ge capital. this is a guy who has to decide, does he want to see it through or work on the number one job of any major ceo, secession? bob nardelli isn't an ge guy that went on to other challenges. -- is a ge guy. >> he has two big bets going on. one in the energy space and one in health care. those are long tail investments. i don't think he will be around for the next five years to see those go through. tom: you think he will begin to look for an exit here. >> it is a different company and will be a very different company in the next five years. tom: where are you on chairman and ceo? >> i'm not a fan of having both.

you need a control because the chairman and the ceo come if they control the board and how the company is run -- you need more strategy going forward. olivia: please answer our twitter question of the day. we want to know, should we raise the minimum wage here in the u.s.? should there be a federal mandate? ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. it is jobs day. alan krueger with us. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: it is jobs day in america. february's employment report later this morning and 8:30 a.m. record snowfall may distort the data from february.

bad weather in washington may delay the release of the report. vladimir putin has his first face-to-face meeting with a european leader since the ukrainian crisis. five people injured in east jerusalem after a motorist rams his car into a group of people. four of those hurt our police officers. the driver was shot and wounded after he exited his car brandishing a knife. john kerry is offering reassurance to arab leaders. he says the u.s. is not seeking a grand bargain with iran. the u.s. is only trying to prevent iran from building a nuclear weapon. google is helping california drivers shop for car insurance. the service could foreshadow the search giant's attempt to shake

up the industry. policies can be bought online. nasa scientists think much of the red planet's atmosphere was wet. they offer fresh evidence that mars might once have sustained life. you are excited about this. >> absolutely. the california federal courts heard closing arguments in the blurred lines copyright trial. marvin gay's family claims the hit rips off "got to give it up." you have followed boy using some -- the great institution that is

bmi. jeff perez is at nyu. he has played with stanley clarke, which means no introduction is necessary. there is copyright people and then musicians talking about copyright people. how upset are you about where we are in the theft of rifts and tone and vibe of old songs? >> the laws are antiquated. the way this case played itself out is disappointing in the fact that the similarity between these two songs lie in their recordings and other composition. tom: you are bringing it over with the digital tools or is this a chord melody rhythm issue? >> there is rhythm, melody and harmony. rhythmically, the patterns are exactly the same. tom: he did 50 ways to meet your

lover with paul simon. they do that and steve is going to sue them? >> rhythm is like the stepchild of the three elements. tom: if i got the way we were barbra streisand ripping it up now. if summit he goes out and takes the records out of that and the rhythm and majesty of that -- >> it depends on if it's an essential element to the song. the similarity between these two songs lie in their vibe. olivia: what about tom petty and sam smith? >> you would see the same melody. tom: great work on "stairway to heaven." where does this go with george harrison? that was an interesting rhythmic debate.

>> the most interesting thing about that case is the lack of intention. george harrison never set out to steal the song. pharrell williams is saying he had no intention of doing this although he admitted after it came out that it sounds a lot alike. olivia: pharrell williams, not sure if you are familiar with him. tom: come on. that is outrageous. olivia: tom keene sung fallout boy on the show. he's tapping the feel of marvin gay. >> the laws were from 10 finale days. they are talking about sheet music. tom: i don't know if they send a

check but she's onstage with them in honor of her -- >> one of the disappointing things about what's happening right now. they admitted it's in a mosh -- a homage. tom: is the estate supposed to assume him for 10 sons -- sue mumford and sons? >> it is pop music. olivia: what is the verdict? what about hall and oates, the oatmeal company? >> a funny story. you can't copyright a bible or feel. -- a vibe or feel. tom: and my taking us to break?

-- am i taking us to break? ms. croft on where oil is and her geopolitics of the middle east. stay with us. it is jobs day. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance. it is wild kingdom. a beautiful march morning. a bald eagle 54 miles northwest of baltimore on a southern pennsylvania border. it is magical.

just superb. a bald eagle, little babies. olivia: i'm so grateful you told me this morning that hank paulson not only saved the financial system but has been out -- tom: massive leadership on this. let me go to the monitor quickly. alan krueger with us from princeton. broad dollar, price adjusted. this is a meeting with a bunch of financial ministers. strong dollar -- why are we talking about a jack lew dollar? >> because it is euro weakness. there is no question the dollar has gotten stronger. it is also yen week. tom: he says we will shift to

analyzing strong dollar. do you agree? >> i think the fed will start to move back monetary policy. olivia: i look at this and i think collateral damage from the currency wars. 17 central banks cutting rates. tom: let's get to our top headlines. olivia: can you barely wait -- we will see what the economy does for an encore. the government release its february jobs report. the best three-month hiring spree in 17 years. economists say employers added 235,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell by .1%. how much did bad weather hurt hiring and where is wage inflation? another twist in the story of hillary clinton and her personal e-mail account.

she used nongovernmental e-mail accounts during her entire tenure. the rule would allow her to use -- the state permit is reviewing those e-mails to see if she violated policy covering sensitive information. john kerry says clinton has been cooperative. >> the department sent a letter to representatives of the former secretaries of state requesting that any records in their possession for proper preservation. secretary clinton provided the department with e-mails that span her time at the state department. olivia: clinton has already cemented 55,000 pages of e-mails to the state department. islamic state has slowly advanced on in iraq he army offensive. -- an iraqi army offensive.

they are being helped with heavy weaponry from iran. a train of oil tankers have derailed -- no one was hurt in the accident. the train was carrying oil from north dakota. there is one -- it will only work on google's next is a smart phone. it won even work on other phones that use android. -- won't even work on other phones that use android. a granola maker with a taste for 80's music named one of its cereals hall and oates. they have told the company to remember one of their big hits

"i can't go for that." the owners responded with a song of their own, "say it ain't so." imitation is the highest form of flattery. tom: let me do a data check. we have some dollar strength almost a 3% move. you see it expressed in the euro. they suggest parity is a reach to get to, but the movement is to weaker currencies. olivia talking the turkish lira and -- oil up to $50.90.

gold under $1200 now. euro and yen under 132. dow futures at negative nine. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we look at india. olivia: india is banning stake. possession of beef fillet can get you up to five years in prison. the managing director -- cows are sacred in india. the only people who will care about this headline are foreign businessmen who can no longer get their t-boned at the time at the taj. do we underestimate the sensitivity to operate there? >> you look at what he has

done for business in the past -- the issue most people have with him is he is now -- these are things being pushed by local governments within india and there are no fight back. you can have things getting better economically but if you start to go back to where we were 50 years ago, that is not going to help a country where you want freedom of speech. you can't have these things going on if you want to be in the next century. olivia: this was the reason he had a travel ban on the u.s. initially. >> he has had in his history when president obama went to see him, he changes tune and says we will be more open to other religions as well. this is the stuff we have to get behind and focus on what needs to get done more productivity

-- tom: we have pakistan bangladesh hindu versus muslim. is there something new within this relationship? >> unfortunately cummings coming back to where we were two years ago. -- where we were 50 years ago. you had more strife going on. you don't want to go back to that. right now, things are ok. people were not fighting. they get along just fine. you don't want to start that underbelly because that will put you back many years. olivia: indian gdp is finally catching up with china as china isn't slowing. -- is slowing. >> why are people focused on india?

because brazil, russia and china are not doing well. 80% of oil is imported. you come with a pro-business economy where taxes are getting lower, more joint ventures -- tom: let's bring in alan krueger . india is applying first order academics to these issues. >> there are a number of good indian -- india has tremendous potential. i was there in september. india's gdp per capita is a quarter of china's there's no reason it can't be half. if india makes the right moves, i would be very bullish on india. olivia: india's demographics are considerably better than china's.

there is a catch it when it comes to productivity come india has been a lagger. >> it is abysmal. look at textile manufacturing, it is awful. they need to make a big leap in terms of productivity. >> if the government wants to build a second airport in mumbai, they can't. tom: how do you spur that constructive investment? >> it is going to take time. it is piecemeal. you get rid of bureaucracy, get rid of people in their clicks. this is not an overnight activity. it's two steps forward, one step back. olivia: they banned 50 shades of gray this week. >> one of the issues he will face -- france has their own issues. olivia: please answer our twitter question of the day.

we want to know, what do you think -- should we raise the minimum wage? should there be a federal mandate? ♪

olivia: good morning.

this is "bloomberg surveillance ." sunday march the 25th annual international women's day. stephanie ruhle joins me now to discuss her three-hour special coming up on "market makers." most powerful women in business and politics. this is an issue near and dear to your heart. >> business, politics, entertainment, lifestyle. not one not to, but three hours to some of the most extraordinary women out there. i had a chance to sit down with the one and only gwyneth paltrow. i asked her to wear a paper bag over her head or turnaround for the interview. she's an oscar-winning actress. her lifestyle blog has turned into a massive site. many say she is the new martha stewart. what is it like for her to sell products? do they want to buy gwyneth paltrow or invest in gwyneth paltrow? do bankers want to give her money? >> it has been an interesting

experience out of my comfort zone. my pedigree is the payment business, a much different business. it is bold or a bull and challenging and exciting to put yourself in a situation where you are laying out your idea and your numbers and your open rates and revenue and seeing that people are interested in being involved in the business and becoming partners with you in the business. >> she gets a tough rap out there. the media loves to give her such a hard time. her business is not mass-market. she has a specific customer. she is the kind of customer. do people want to buy it? olivia: you profile so many women doing well in business. it looks very different -- s&p 1500 companies, more men in the

top spot than women. how do we fix this? >> there is no resolution today. we are celebrating women. we have the ceo of neiman marcus , senior adviser to the white house, the chief technology officer of the white house two of the most senior women in investment banking. what can we do? show these women who are kicking ass. olivia: they are trying to invest in funds that are disproportionately led by women. other people are trying to get female directors on their board. which of these strategies work? >> there is none we can point to because the numbers are so abysmal. you have 20 women leading fortune 500 companies, people should be him elated. many people thought this would be the chance because things are getting shaken up. that has not happened yet. all we can do is take the women

and honor them today. olivia: we have you here as managing editor. >> and mother of three. how does she do it? olivia: you can catch this special three-hour version of market makers today. we will be joining -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. it is jobs day. we get started with our top headlines. olivia: barely half an hour away, the federal government releasing its february employment. it may be as much about the weather as it is the jobs. temperatures and the record snowfall may distort the data. bad weather in washington may delay the release of the report. vladimir putin has his first visit by a european leader since the conflict in ukraine. they agreed to set up an investment fund.

a woman who nearly died in the boston marathon bombing offers her testimony. rights and intense message to the defendant. calling him a coward and saying you can't handle the fact that what you try to destroy you only made stronger. the post went viral. she last -- lost her left leg at the finish line. widespread use of self driving cars could end in 90% -- and 90% of all u.s. auto accidents heard thousands of deaths would be prevented and there would be an annual savings of $190 billion in damages and health care costs. it will still be another 15 years before there is mass adoption. more americans are doing the big dig again this morning. the latest winter blast brought life to a crawl in new england. heavy snow stranded drivers on interstates in kentucky.

there is a different problem in alaska. the famed iditarod running on a new course because there is not enough snow in alaska. the weather pattern left alaska fairly warm this winter. tom: cuba gooding was once in a movie about that. olivia: there are jobs in north dakota. not so in rhode island. states like texas, michigan and hawaii are poised for growth on this jobs day. alan krueger is with us. you talk a lot about a two-tiered economy. how much of that has to do with regional differences? >> there are certainly regional differences. even more important are gradients we are seeing based on education and worker skills and

the type of industry and occupation they are in. there is no question that the energy states like north dakota have done quite well. i suspect that will reverse given the change in oil prices because of their tremendous success. other states like rhode island and new jersey have been poorly. olivia: which are the sectors that are hiring? >> we are seeing broad-based hiring. the recovery is more resilient. we are seeing continuing growth and health care manufacturing, construction bouncing back. tom: one of the questions about this is the quality of those 200-7000 jobs per month. do you buy the idea that part-time jobs go into full-time jobs? or do part-time jobs state part-time or even go to this flex time world which is maybe

not the quality of a full-time job? >> excellent question. what we saw was a huge jump in part-time work during the recession. in the recovery, most of the growth has been in full-time but we still have a large number of people working part-time who would like to work full-time. i look at average hours. average hours are back to trend. i don't think there is as much slack. tom: the arch issue here mohammed el-erian e-mailed in to me about the dollar dynamics. as he suggests, it's a romance of international economics and dollar economics against the iis curve or the real economy of the united states. you and jason -- do we have

enough to push aside dollar worries? >> i think the recovery is never going to take off. i think we are going to see stronger consumption growth especially when it comes to discretionary -- tom: do you agree with that? >> i absolutely do. we are looking at the market and saying where is the purchasing going to come from? people with more money in their pockets. look at the retail space. good companies like macy's or nordstrom's. one of the areas we like is the organic food site. the cyclical growth of the millennial's -- that's what they are going to buy.

olivia: you will buy an eight dollar bag of organic hall and oates granola. >> and taro chips. olivia: i want to ask you about the auto recovery. you wrote recently "the auto sector has led the recovery through a greater extent than has been the case in past recoveries." you were quite surprised how well detroit has bounced back. where are we today with those jobs in michigan versus 2007? >> a much, much better place. olivia: are we back to the same employment level? >> all of those jobs are not back and they don't pay as well as they used to. in order to restructure the industry competition was cut

dramatically. the production has been superb. autos tends to be a pro cyclical sector. it has been stronger than manufacturing overall and has led the recovery. tom: when does janet yellin begin to raise rates? anyway june guy or september guy? >> the summer of this year. that puts me june-julyish. i am consistent. tom: he would give me an answer. olivia: time to answer our twitter question of the day. should we raise the minimum wage? "it will curtail government social spending and raise corporate profits."

"a hike in minimum wages benefits marginal employees who retain their jobs." tom: these are way too microeconomic for a friday morning. olivia: did you think gwyneth paltrow was watching? "more beer money for 21 million college students." >> i think the u.s. has had a minimum wage for a long time and it has served our country's interests. it has been at $7.25 for several years. you are seeing states raised them in wage. red states voting overwhelmingly to raise the minimum wage. tom: is there any research indication that the drama of a double-digit minimum wage cuts jobs, cuts output cuts spirit? >> i think the weight of the evidence suggests a moderate minimum wage benefits the economy.

when you talk about double-digit, look at the u.k. which introduced the minimum wage after margaret thatcher. it has done quite well and there is not debate about an adverse effect on employment. they have updated their views in light of the evidence. olivia: many economists raise the opinion that what matters more than raising the actual wage is the number of hours worked. >> we have a great diversity of workers in the u.s. someone flexible hours, someone full-time and we have a diversity of jobs. tom: thank you so much. particularly the comments on india. it is jobs day. i continue on bloomberg radio.

look for bloomberg television throughout the day for interpretation of the nations jobs report. stay with us on bloomberg television and radio. good morning. ♪

>> good morning. it is friday, march 6, jobs day in america. we are 90 minutes away from the

opening bell. we have a great lineup are you this morning. the jobs report out in 30 minutes. mohammed el-erian, jason furman alan krueger mike turner of ohio and the renowned investor and ceo of 3rd avenue. a huge lineup this morning. the numbers may be slightly delayed due to the weather in washington. the weather is creating havoc around the country. here is a look at our top stories this money. vladimir putin meeting with the european leader since the first time since the ukrainian conflict. sitting down with the italian prime minister in moscow. they say they agree on the cease-fire efforts in ukraine. hillary