scarlet: tsipras in brussels. francine: fiat chrysler says a deal could be done. probed by the fbi, bill ackman's fund as investigated. we will speak to the billionaire investigator later today. welcome to "the pulse," live from london. just getting some figures from

the iea the international energy agency with its oil market report. having bottomed out in the second quarter of 2014, global demand has steadily risen the record u.s. oil glut is continuing to cut prices. we'll keep an eye on oil. quite a lot of volatility and fluctuation. opec joining the conversation. brent at $57. tensions high in europe as greece's prime minister meets with the president of the european commission in brussels. greece formally complained about wolfgang schaeuble. let's bring in hans nichols in berlin. marcus is in athens. the spat between wolfgang schaeuble and varoufakis is very

public. hans: we had a formal complaint tuesday night from the greek ambassador to germany lodging a complaint claiming that mr. yanis varoufakis called him "foolishly naive. here is what mr. wolfgang schaeuble said. he was commenting on mr. varoufakis' communication strategy. some greek papers and markets might be in a better position to talk about this. mr. schaeuble said to be called

for shall he naive -- foolishly naive is insade. -- insane. marcus: what has annoyed the greeks is the characterization of the debate. mr. varoufakis does speak a lot to the media. it goes back to the eurogroup, there is a sense that a lot of the debate over greece's bailout has become personalized. the latest comments from schaeuble were perceived as the final straw. in fairness to varoufakis he himself and the things he said, although there is a lot of

that., he tries his best to avoid becoming personalized. he gave an interview wednesday evening where he tried his utmost to avoid --the journalists try to get a response and he avoided getting drawn in. he said when i speak to schaeuble i'm respectful and i will not slip into the trap of bad manners. francine: we had, i am quite fascinated by the insults. it feels personal. we have guests here who are insulted, including german lawmakers. we had a bloomberg scoop saying the ecb increased the ela ceiling. how bad do greecek banks need it? marcus: i agree with hans nichols' comment, there is a lot

of noise and it can take the wrong momentum. when people speak a lot there is valid criticism about the communication strategy because people can -- things can spiral out of control. about ela, we are hearing that greece is still, it is a small increase. we are hearing that the banks have a cushion of about 3.5 billion euros before they reach the ela ceiling. it is not as if they are about to run out of money. and what suggests stabilization of deposit outflows after the eurogroup decision on february 20 has continued to remain stable. if that 3.5 billion cushion is correct. of course the deposit situation is sensitive. a few bad headlines can draw

can't worry people. which goes back to the communication strategy schaeuble is criticizing. it does not leave a great deal of leeway. francine: we also spoke yesterday to the pundits bank -- the pundits bank -- the bundesbank president jens weidmann. hans: maybe the banks do not need that much more breathing room. they do not need that much more extra ela access. there's concern from the germans that ela may be being abused. and there is a danger it could turn into monetary financing. have a listen. mr. weidmann: ela is a emergency liquidity strategy. it covers temporary liquidity needs.

it can only be granted to sovereign banks. both of these conditions have to be met and we have to respect the other conditions. we cannot allow monetary financing. the judgment of the situation where a government is unable to tap the market, banks are unable to tap the market there are concerns about monetary financing. hans: some very serious central-bank talk from mr. weidmann. he is weighing in on the back-and-forth between mr. schaeuble and mr. varoufakis. if i call you naive and i also called you foolishly naive which would you be more offended by? francine: naive is probably just as cutting. depends on what you call me naive for. if it was something on the markets i would be offended. if it was something i should not

be knowing about i would not be offended. hans: that is fair, context matters. sometimes context gets lost when we are translating this from german to greecek back to german. then you have formal complaints. i do think this is significant. attention is in the open and went schaeuble and -- detention is in the open and when schaeuble and varoufakis have their next meeting there is going to be more media attention. the very thing schaeuble has been criticizing mr. varoufakis for. francine: thank you. some more colorful tweets, mr. varoufakis is on twitter and often responds directly to journalists' criticism. should leaders tweet more or less? that is the twitter question of the day. e-mail our tweet me at @flacqua in @guyjohnsontv.

on the greek situation, let's go to hsbc's stephen. we are -- you are the most accurate forecasts are in terms of what bond yields would do in 2014. your insight is important. if you look at the greek situation. >> i think the point about naivete is important. the opposite of being cynical. it is probably quite nice. flattering. the ela is not increasing as fast as it was before. that is a more interesting development. it is a big number. the rate of increase if that is slowing down that is what people are looking for. if mr. weidmann is worried about monetary financing, we can find a couple examples around the eurozone. it is not just greece. francine: how worried are you about greece? >> i'm really not.

i was involved with esi -- francine: why? is that naive? >> it's the quantum. one day qe is 3 billion euros. on day one of qe it was 3 billion euros, that is all greece needs. there's a lot of noise around this. with all the respect, there's been a fair bit of misreporting. not by bloomberg, of course. just grabbing headlines and jumping on the back of what the ela means. this happened with ireland and we've seen it before with greece . i don't think it is that alarming but the market seems to want to jump on it. if you look at the price action on treasuries and other euro zone periphery markets, they

seem to be ignoring greece. francine: because of qe? >> it may be the tail risk is being swamped by the liquidity. francine: is there a danger that we are not factoring in -- this war of words, i hate that expression -- they are is there a danger that one country gets fed up? it could be germany or greece. saying we do not want to be part of this anymore. >> if this was a husband and wife, we are at the he said, she said stage. you would go to mediation and someone needs to get involved. it needs to be depersonalized. it is not going to get anywhere like this. if it was a couple you would find someone at dealing with it. it is a symptom of underlying fundamental differences and tensions building up over a long period of time.

francine: we should not worry, there is no divorce coming. >> this might involve a quiet dinner. francine: do you think risk is mispriced. >> there's a possibility that in some of the risky asset prices this is what has been happening. if you look at credit spreads and term preemie as well as credit risk premium, it is low. the worry for greece is one thing but i'm more worried about the momentum and seeing money flowed into very low yields in credit. francine: thank you so much. this is what else is on our radar. russia's central bank is expected to cut rates. russia lowered its interest rate to 15% in january, having raised

it six times last year. the move comes ahead of next week's anniversary of russia's annexation of crimea. u.s. officials investigating the possible manipulation of herbal life stocks by bill ackman. the investigation as part of a long-running probe of the dietary supplement maker. tune in to bloomberg at 2:00 p.m. london time. we had an interview with bill ackman himself. the field chrysler ceo, sergio marchionne has said his company is open to a tie up with gm or ford. and that a deal would be "technically feasible." he added that any deal would be saving the highest amount of capital. gm and ford representatives say they are focused on their own businesses. a star-studded event at the opening of an exhibit showcasing the late designer's work.

i spoke to the ceo in an exclusive interview. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." back with hsbc's head of fixed income global research. the most accurate forecaster of u.s. yields in 2014.

2015, you are just saying that you do not think yields in the u.s. will go lower. >> i think we saw the lows last month, 1.64. we are targeting 2.5. it is not that controversial. we are looking for a steeper curve. not a flatter one. at the moment everyone is positioned as if nothing can go wrong. my suggestion would be there is a lot that can go wrong. francine: raising interest rates too soon? or consumption not being there? >> the curve could steep been through a number of routes. they could heighten rates by last. expectations could pick up. there could be uncertainty around this liftoff, which is volatility. the fed may change guidance. maybe they stop reinvesting. why are they investing into all

these bonds and distorting the yield curve? francine: why are the markets ignoring this? >> markets want to focus on one thing at a time. it is about the conundrum and the yield graph. we have known that since last year. we have known there were more buyers and sellers. which is the most patronizing thing. you have to think about what could happen to change that. where could there be a new supply of bonds? a couple ideas -- u.s. corporate are looking at the euro to issue in. they know the euro currency is going down and they can save on interest rates. japanese investors may question whether they should hope bunds -- hold bunds when the yield is less than jgb's. everyone is assuming there is no willing sellers. francine: insurance companies -- >> insurance companies have obligations and yields down

here, they have to keep buying. that keeps the longer and underpinned. we are not talking about twos into tense. francine: in terms of dollar parity, it seems it is not fairly valued. it cannot stay at this level. >> it has moved so quickly. the first point is about what is the fair value? francine: do you have one? one point 20, 1 .25? >> most parity estimates are not far from the average. it may be that the policy is working. if the policy objective is to get the currency down and push inflation up. mr. draghi should be delighted with this. it has happened very quickly. the question i would ask everybody is if inflation expectations are going to rise because of the currency, what is the bund yield doing down here?

the market does not want to address this. bund yields low and inflation going up. >> when you look at equities the markets do not want to adjust the fact that we may be in a bubble. you look at the nikkei highs on the ftse ended cac -- and the cac. the nikkei is closing above 19,000 for the first time since 2000. what is that mean? are we mispricing risk. >> equity fund managers will be looking at the long-term discount rates. in germany if you have a choice of 0.24 with a bund or a company with a dividend of multiples of this, what are you going to do? same in japan. i would not argue against this. francine: do not argue against central banks until you have a flavor that they may reverse what they had done? >> i would not argue against the trend in the equity market until we have a clear sign there's

going to be a shift in bonds. i'm talking about very modest changes in the bond markets. 2.5 for u.s. bond yields. the most bearish i can get is neutral. all we are looking for is a modest correction. i suppose the more interesting thing is the steepening of the curve. if that happens, that has all kinds of applications for different asset classes. they could be equities having a steep yield curve. francine: thank you for your time.s teven from hsbc. waiting to be here from russia's central bank. will they cut rates? live to moscow, coming up next. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse," live on bloomberg and streaming on bloomberg.com. rush upon's central bank is expected to cut rates. it lowered the interest rate in january. the move comes ahead of next week's anniversary of the annexation of crimea. live to moscow. how much of the move how much of a move is the market expecting? anna: yes, we are one hour away from the decision. the median of the forecast is for a 100 basis point cut. economists tend to be more

conservative. the market is expecting something more close to 200 basis points. if that doesn't happen, bonds can be disappointed. we do not expect the ruble to be impacted as much since it is more connected to oil prices. with all the roller coasters we've had with interest rates, forecasts are all over the place. some expected to go as low as 1250. russia is entering a recession. the economy contracting will curtail inflation. it is now about 16 and it might peak over 17 in april. by the end of the year, they expect inflation to go down to maybe 12%. with that logic we can see the central bank cutting the rate and maybe helping the economy. the rates are still high, it is hard to do business investment act this point. there has been pressure on the central bank about that.

francine: vladimir has not been seen in public for weeks. what is the latest on his whereabouts? anna: i know. with all the excitement we lost our leader. he's nowhere to be found in terms of the public eye. the official version from the spokesperson is that he is in good health. he's had a lot of internal meetings, the public was not invited. right now, on bloomberg terminal, he will have a meeting monday in st. petersburg. maybe we will see on monday. francine: all right, thank you so much, anna in moscow. coming up. under investigation, bill ackman being probed because herbalife. that story is coming up next. funny more coming up on "the pulse." keep it here. our twitter question of the day. covering the spat between alexis tsipras mr. varoufakis and the germans. should leaders tweet more or

less? president obama says he does not have time to tweet he needs to get the job done. what do you think? ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." live from london. i'm francine lacqua. commerzbank says it will pay $1.45 billion to settle multiple probes in the u.s.. after legal trouble of her sanctions violations claims and its role in one of japan's biggest accounting scandals. let's go to shane, who has details. what are the conditions of the settlement? shane: commerzbank agreed to pay

$1.45 billion. they will be letting go of some employees involved in the activity. additionally, they will install and external bank monitor. summit who comes in and looks at the bank's compliance to make sure they rm the right track. this looks like a pretty standard package here and we've seen this before in other european banks and banks like hsbc, barclays and deutsche banc. they have agreed to external monitors. francine: has the bank set aside enough money to cover the settlement? shane: that was the big question. nobody really knew. the bank only disclose provisioning for legal cases, it does not break down individual cases. for this particular settlement, nobody knew how much. yesterday after u.s. authorities said that they settled,

commerzbank said ok, we're going to take a one-time charge of 338 million euros. this is the number people were waiting on. people wanted to know commerzbank, do you need to put aside more. investors have clarity and now they know how much money they need in addition to what they put aside. francine: what does it mean for the bank in the coming years? shane: looking for its toward bash looking for -- looking forward to 2016 the bank is restructuring to increase profitability. martin blessing has said a few weeks back that the bank might have a problem getting to this targets. when they said the targets a few years back for 2016, they did not note europe was going to be stuck, they did not know interest rates would be suppressed for so long. it is going to be difficult

coming forward. the payment is money people are saying they could be using better the $1.45 billion. they could be setting it aside to reach their capital ratio target or increasing profitability. management is going to have to sit down from what i hear, and sort of asking the question are we going to make our capital target? how are we going do that? should be interesting. francine: thank you so much for that. shane in frankfurt. time for today's other top stories. ubs raised compensation for the ceo by 4% to 11.2 million francs. the bank restated fourth-quarter profit, lowering it by 105 million francs. ubs' as provisions after agreeing to pay to settle a u.s. lawsuit related to currency

raking. intel says sales would be higher. the chipmaker shares fell to the lowest level since july after it said revenues will be no higher than $13.19. the leader of the you can't opposition lab --the leader of the u.k. opposition labour party ed miliband said he did not want or need to join forces with snp. the snp is expected to make gains in may after enjoying a surge in popularity following the scottish independence vote. next wednesday we are launching bloomberg politics u.k. election 2015. we will be bringing you a special program looking at the key election issues and how they could affect businesses and industry.

at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time and 12:00 p.m. central european time weekdays from march 18. five years from the death of alexander mcqueen, linda's victoria -- london's the tory and albert museum is hosting an exhibition. it has proven to be a sellout with 70 thousand tickets purchased on presale. i got a sneak peek and spoke with the ceo about the legacy and how the business is going. >> we are very excited. for me and my team, we are very proud. we are a british company. we are like a family. this is about lee. we felt duty-bound to do this and show his incredible work in his hometown of london. francine: what do people love about it? so different from anything else. >> mcqueen was a creative

genius. one of the best in his field. he was a teller of stories. that is what fascinates people most. he would often start his collections from the concept of his show and build it around that. people love story. certainly with this exhibition once people come to see it, i'm convinced it will become viral and everybody will be mad to come. francine: the imagination of the clothing and the way it is set is incredible. do you think it is the man with the most imagination the more risk taker, the more -- the guy that shook up fashion? >> he was up there with the best. there were a few others but certainly we made a lot of noise . he spoke his mind, he was happy to break all the boundaries. it is important to see, i do not think people understand the

level of craftsmanship you see is second to none. that is something that really makes us stand out from the rest. it is great. francine: does this translate into sales? an exhibition like this, is that brand recognition, people who already by alexander mcqueen or do you think you will see sales? >> we did when it was in new york. it brought the brand to a different audience. i don't know, let's see. this -- we have not done this for any commercial reasons. we've done it because we had to and we felt duty-bound. this is more about lee mcqueen as more than a brand. francine: the brand is doing phenomenally well. what is most exciting about the brand for you? what are the challenges and what are the opportunities? >> the most exciting thing is that we have proved after losing the founder that was a true genius that five years on we

have become probably one of the biggest and best brands in the u.k. we are very proud of that. we are going to build on that. lots of areas we are focusing on. we've gone from being a brand that was very much seem to be a conceptual designer brand to an international luxury brand. that is exciting and that is what we are focusing on, to strengthen that. francine: within the group, you are one of the most successful brands. in the u.s. or worldwide? >> it is across the board. all our brands are doing really well. we have been holding our own and doing well. america is our biggest market at 30%. we've had exceptional growth in asia. the brand awareness in asia is something that is surprising for the last three or four years. francine: as ceo, what worries you? do you spend time worrying about fx sales, strategy or creativity? >> it starts with products. if the product is not strong,

you will not succeed. what keeps me up is to make sure we are continuing. you have to push toward you have to move forward and evolve the brand and excite customers. fx and things like that are important but you have to start with the product. francine: do you feel that fashion is taking up? risk >> the world of luxury has really evolved over the last 20 years. the pressures that come with that are enormous when you are running a business. now it is more about in the digital age and the last five years, it is more about the customers. you cannot stand still. you have to really reinvent your brand and bring things in. that really makes you take more risk. francine: social engagement? or is it that people want a different look? you've been in charge since 2004, has anything changed?

>> something is hot one minute and you have huge volumes of something one minute, you cannot rely on that. people get bored. they want things new and they want fresh things all the time. that is generated by things like instagram. people sharing things all the time. they want to see the next thing tomorrow. francine: no one has predicted that. five years ago we did not know it would be a social media driven world. >> if you look back 10 years ago, things evolved at a slower pace. classics and logos and now it is completely different. francine: how exciting is it to work in luxury and see the transformation? >> it is the best industry you could possibly have a jobin. it is constantly changing. it is truly global. it is very exciting. francine: the retrospective of

alexander mcqueen starts and opens to the public tomorrow saturday, march 14. under investigation, bill ackman being probed because of herbalife. that story is coming up next. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's london

headquarters. bill ackman under pressure. federal officials investigating. let's bring in hans nichols. how much of a surprise is this? hans: it is a surprise. bill has been public and his campaign. he has hired consultants but he has been clear heat wants to reveal it is according to him, a ponzi scheme. he has courted the media and they have put out presentations. unclear where and how you come against the legal line when doing that. people from his staff have not been deposed. herbalife is claiming excuse me, bill ackman's group is claiming they had done nothing wrong. here's a statement from pershing square, "we have been transparent about our position in our research and have acted lawfully in every respect." it is about a $1 billion bet.

on the company. stock is down for herbalife about 50% on the year. more from herbalife's response. herbalife is being looked at, i don't know if investigation is too strong. being looked at by several regulatory authorities stateside, including the ftc. there that investigation is ongoing. now we have one on the other side. looks like it could get nastier. francine: hands, can you remind us what happened? it was always a controversial move. hans: herbalife is a nutritional supplement. it is in many different countries, venezuela among them where they have had currency issues. what bill ackman's allegation is is they basically push more people into selling their product. a pyramid scheme, there cannot

be enough returns to justify everything they're putting out. carl icahn, daniel loeb investors have said this is a solid company that has a solid business plan and we are going to get behind it. as a public back-and-forth. bill ackman is sticking with his position here it when i interviewed him in amsterdam when he took part of his company public to raise money, he was insisting they would be vindicated and he wants to sue the company closed down to the point that their sales model is no longer viable. we are at this situation but it looks like ackman may be investigated as well. it has not gone to the formal level of depositions just yet. francine: he's quite a colorful character. we are speaking to him at 2:00 p.m. london time. is he what are we expecting him seay? hans: talk about tennis. he's a very smart guy.

he's one of the biggest hedge fund is out there. he's had some successful moves and some not so successful mix. he tried to put in the new director of jcpenney, that did not work out. his fund is up over the year. i don't know how it is performing against the s&p are against peers. he's had a good year. we had a cover story on bloomberg markets magazine a couple months ago saying bill ackman, how do you like him now? talking about his success. at least on herbalife, it is down 50% on the year. francine: interesting. thank you. a story we will follow. hans nichols from berlin and then we speak to bill ackman erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle at to the clock p.m. london time. do not miss that. here's a snapshot of the financial markets in terms of where we are in european stocks. little change. stoxx 600 gaining 0.1%.

if you look at a breakdown of what is gaining, industrial companies are offsetting some of the declines in energy stocks. among the stocks that are moving on corporate news, salvatore ferragamo reported better-than-expected earnings for 2014. having a little bit of the impact on ftse in italy. ftse flat. currencies in, we were speaking to steven of hsbc comment saying the 10 year german bond yield makes no sense and will have to go up. when you look at the tenure from the u.k. and the tenure german bund that says it all. are the most pressing risk? -- are they mispricing risk? an exclusive interview with the jp morgan chase chairman, that is coming up at the top of the next hour. to tweet or not to tweet?

our twitter question of the day should leaders tweet more or less? you can tweet us hashtag #thepulse. @guyjohnsontv, @flacqua. ♪

president obama: i do not

physically tweet in general. there are times when i am responding, a particular issue and we are trying to get something out. i will get on there so i am interacting. on a special event. generally speaking, i have got other stuff to do. francine: president obama on the american late-night talk show "jimmy lkkimmel." should leaders tweet more the greek finance minister yanis varoufakis is keen to defend himself on twitter. should he and president obama tweet more or less? tweet us -- @flacqua,@guyjohnsontv. the u.k. and i think it is looking to join the chinese asian investment bank. u.s. officials raised concern

over whether the new body would meet the standards of the world bank. u.s. oil ceos trying to persuade lawmakers to lift a 40-year ban on oil exports. the u.s. is selling oil $10 less than global benchmarks are decent yield phillips was among investors that flew to washington.' shares of toymakers rose on disney's announcement it is working on a sequel to "present." shares of mattel jumped after the news. disney also revealed the eighth sale of "star wars" will be released in may 20 17th. let's get more on our top story. greece. in a interview with nouriel roubini dr. doom argued severity would prevent a greek exit. mr. roubini: there would be

massive contingent. -- contagion. there would be a run on eurozone banks. once one country is out, people will ask who will be next. economically and financially it does not make sense. even the germans realize it. geopolitical consequences, their actions are becoming more aggressive, not just in ukraine and the politics but also the balkans, from mulder the to serbia 0---- moldovia. greece may end up in the arms of the russian bear. you have terrorists in paris. the middle east is a mess. from a german point of view and does not make sense to have an exit of grace -- of greece.

it would cause economic, financial and political damage to the eurozone. there will be a compromise between the two sides on the debt and structural reform. i do not think the greece exit from the eurozone is likely. francine: that was nouriel roubini talking to us from italy. let's check on currencies. we've been on parity watch. the dollar resuming its best rally this morning. it is not anymore. we've seen a little bit of swinging currently at 1.06. at 6:00 a.m. it was resuming its rally and it has declined a touch. coming up, tom keene takes over with "surveillance." in the u.k., another hour of the pulse. an interview with the jp morgan chase international chairman. one of the experts in monetary policy.

we asked him what he thinks and when he thinks the fed will raise rates. we will see whether he sees any real distortion and yields here in europe. there is distortion because of qe, does that mean the markets are mispricing overall? that is the question for jacob frenkel. we have a great exclusive with the ceo of seefiat-chrysler, is the company looking for a merger? you can follow us on twitter. i am @flacqua. the twitter question of the day should leaders tweet more or should they tweet less? we have been talking about the spat between the germans and the greeks. mr. varoufakis often taking to twitter to defend himself and his country's policy. should he tweet more or less.

a couple responses already. continue tweeting us. i am @flacqua. a lot of people saying leaders should get on with their job and not tweet it off. ♪

tom: markets churn. japanese stocks had a central high.

we discussed the shades of passive investing. cate blanchett has never been more evil. shades of joan crawford. "cinderella." why is there never an evil stepfather? good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." joining me, olivia sterns. are you going to see the movie? olivia: yes. let's get you straight to top headlines. a manhunt is underway for the suspect who shot two police officers in ferguson, missouri. there were more protests overnight, but they were peaceful. this is fallout from the shooting of a white -- of a black teenager by a white police officer. president