greece is to make a payment to the international monetary fund today. they are risking a cash crunchah later this month. ead of the equity mark -- i had of the equity markets. a stellar run for the germany benchmark. a higher open. let's get to manus cranny. manus: seven-year highs from the equity mark. indeed you are right. it was up over 4% and traded -- this morning, china. what is next for china? a reserve requirement lower? premier keqiang in for an we have lots of room to assist. back to european equities. the debate what happened with the dollar and that your role. we saw a 12 year low trade overnight in the asian market.

-- with the dollar and the euro. it could be interesting positioning and worth talking about. bullish bets 18 of the major commodities on the bloomberg index. dropped by 35%. bullish bet by 35% on the commodities. let's check in. nymex down. so much a storage space and you run out especially in oklahoma. storage tanks flowing and almost white the rate in norm -- at almost twice the rate it normally does. krugman is down 1%. -- crude is down 1%. brent is down. gold traders run away at a pretty fast pace.

reduce on the gold market. gold in a little bit of a bind nymex and brent trading lower. premier keqiang's comments about getting involved in the chinese market. black rock saying don't be cruel. get ready for an 8% drop as a the 70 level according to black rock. the dollar is down by 0.4%. taking a breather. wait to see if janet yellen and the fomc is prepared to remove the word "patient." dollar strength, 2 beige book reports so far this year.

dollar strength was mentioned six times. you're not seen that number of references to strong dollar in almost 15 years. he said does have international. jenna that bank it is fed week in europe. -- jonathan: it is fed week in europe. qe working. qe apparently will not work for your or at least not for greece. that is the message from the finance minister yanis varoufakis. the country continues to wrangle with creditors as a pays down another charge of debt to the imf today. hans nichols has the details. hans: good morning. mr. varoufakis things quantitative easing is giving us nothing but an equitable and it could be unsustainable. varoufakis contrast mr.'s

comments -- contrast mr. varoufakis's comments a he wants an investment led were covered in what he likes to call "the merkel plan." contrast what he was saying with what mr. pier carlo padoan was saying. he talked about the importance of quantitative easing and what it is doing to drive down the euro and greater strength in exports. on greece's ability to pay debt, mr. pier carlo padoan seemed to be suggesting there could be bumps down the road. pier carlo padoan: i'm fully confident the solution will be found. the greek government has popular support which in some stage may clash with requests from europe. i am confident a compromise will be found in the interest of both. hans: greece has a payment due

today. 588 million euros. on friday another 350 million two. they need to roll over about 1.5 billion euros in short-term debt. that could be the biggest question. who will buy the debt? will the ecb put pressure on them not to stop up? mr. varoufakis speaking to german broadcaster, in an interview aired last night and he referred to greece's liquidity problem as "insignificant" and they would not have a problem meeting their short-term obligations. we have big payments are due and they get bigger as the mother goes on. jonathan: big redemptions. hans nichols from berlin. thank you very much. equity bulls on sustainable seems to be the word from yanis

varoufakis. portugal has surged around 20%. is it sustainable? let's give the question to joseph. he has overseen $1.5 billion. the majority of the exposure in southern europe. great to have you with you. the dax surgeon. not unsustainable. you did have longer to go. why? joseph: i do not think it is sustainable at all. we are in the first inning. probably a long bull market. you have a fantastic cocktail of good news and that incredibly positive for continental europe. you have the euro that has gone down from 140 and that is very good news particularly for

southern europe and the german economy is more set for a stronger currency and qe and that is a very powerful cocktail of good news for this market. jonathan: how short are the tailwinds? how short-lived are the facts? joseph oughourlian: it it depends how long the prices will stay where they are. it looks like the crisis will stay low or at least not rebound greatly in the coming months judging from the supply out of the u.s. the euro, i guess everyone is to bearish on the euro. i do not see it rebounding strongly with all of the qe. i think you see the effects will

be gradual this year and next year. it will have an effect on gdp and even greater effect on companies earnings. this is the first time in five years that continental european earnings are going to rise in perhaps double digits. jonathan: whiffs in a big move in -- and we have seen a big move and some of these markets. is it buy the dibs?> joseph oughourlian: i think the playbook isn't the united states. what is happening in europe is probably going to be shorter. -- i think the playbook is the united states. reaction stronger, more powerful than announced by the fed. undervaluation of european and people say the playbook. they have seen it play out in the u.s. jonathan: i want to talk by italy.

the ftse has been on an incredible run. you have been in this country since 1998. you have seen growth flatlined. why is that going to change in italy anytime soon? joseph oughourlian: the performance of the other italian economy has been nothing short of -- again, the same sort of cocktail of news and positive macro developments which are greatly helping the italian economy. you're probably the best italian government we have had in a generation. for 20 years, the government was doing nothing for the economy. making no performance. the renzi government has implemented and voted in a number of key reforms. no one is getting any credit for it. jonathan: when the do i see it have a business impact? when i go, i see every branch in

every town and talking about consolidation. when is it going to start to have an impact? joseph oughourlian: you are right. reforms take a bit of time in macro. it doesn't wait for the effects to play is self out. and consolidation of banking sector, an important point. they desperately need to consolidate. a major credit crunch, qe will not work out currently unless the banking sector is back in place and can start lending. jonathan: you are hopeful they will do it? joseph oughourlian: i think so. i think they will do it in the coming months. the effect of qe is incredibly powerful. the lowest it has ever been. the incentive for banks is quite

strong to start lending again. jonathan: stay with us. after the break, we will talk about political risk. london house prices. we take a look if the upcoming vote has investors spooked. the ftse 100 is a little higher. you have big moves and standard life. we talk about that after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning. jonathan ferro i am. -- i am jonathan ferro. some stock movers. h&m shares up after it beat estimates. 15% higher in local currency. holcim in focus. they said they are willing to revisit -- they point out no other aspects of the deal will be reconsidered. the stocks of each on the perspective companies trading lower. standard life reports it may raise its stake in indian partners to 90%. it is trading lower by 16%. you may have heard this year's europe election is the most uncertain in generations. a labor government needs to get

in bed with s&p? this weekend, he offered to support the tories if they hold a referendum on britain's membership in the eu. what does it mean for anybody investing in the u.k.? let's give that to joseph oughourlian. given the political situation in southern europe that is where you are invested. are you worried about here in the u.k.? joseph oughourlian: everybody is worried about southern european politics and i would be more word by u.k. politics. not because it looks more if but because people are not paying that much attention. i cannot see a positive scenario. jonathan: how do you invest around that? how does it play out? is it a sterling story? not clear to me how it plays out. joseph oughourlian: sterling is

the obvious short, if you will. i would stay on equities and financials. we do not know who is going to win those elections. the eu referendum could create a lot of uncertainty in markets and out right labor victory with smp would be devastating for u.k. financials. jonathan: if you look at the referenda we could have that is if he has enough seats to make that power play. on the continent, you are experienced a enough, are they worried about london? joseph oughourlian: they are to some extent. not a big headline grabbing news. people in the government are worried if the u.k. leaves, it is not good news for the eu in general.

jonathan: i want to bring the conversation to the eurozone. democracy was apparently the risk for this year. has the message been to syriza it doesn't mean you will get much from us? joseph oughourlian: the way greece will be dealt with will be key and the message that will be sent to the greek will be very important in terms of credibility. i think if the greeks were to exit, the monetary union and they were faced with the consequences of that, it would be dramatic for the greek economy but not a bad day for the rest of europe. it would show that you have to abide by the rules and you cannot promise anything to your people. and it would send a strong message to the parties in italy and spain and in france.

instead of saying, we can beat the euro and we will be better. jonathan: it would take a strong message and a lot of guts to make it happen. i was told last week the consequences would be great. is greece left the eurozone could we think there will be no contagion? joseph oughourlian i: do not think there will be any contagion at all. if you look at southern europe despite the greek crisis despite all of the headlines and despite a widening -- it has been resistant. the markets are saying, we do not care about greece anymore. that is the problem the greek government is having. the whole case was if we leave there will be contagion. but there will not be. jonathan: was you are saying is issue not be any credit risk?

joseph oughourlian: ecb is so powerful that [indiscernible] any credit risk from the spread. i do not think the bonds are particularly attractive. jonathan: amber capital founder, joseph oughourlian. he is invested in years making big gains. we will bring you the budget in full on wednesday. a special daily program looking as a key issues and the run-up of the election. that is weekdays 11:00 a.m. u.k. time starting this wednesday. we speak to a car parts manufacturer behind the land rover. we check out the stop. it is up by over 35%. we will speak to the ceo of vael\leo after the break.

♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." we have seen the impact of equity markets. valeo the october parts maker -- october parts maker. plenty of cars around half of its revenue comes from europe and the company is growing. joining us is the company's ceo.

jack, great to have you with us. it is easy to make a trade in europe. you lose conviction. it gets done. for business, you build a factory a you have made a commitment. are you positive about the real economy? jack: we have customers everywhere in the world. we have plans in europe for china and the american market and we are committed to europe to grow as long as our market is growing. our market is growing but not as fast as in the u.s. to stop the global market will grow more with gdp. we are growing much faster because our innovation allows us to grow much faster. if you take an example here, we are round 9% in europe.

the difference is all of the innovation well brought into the european market. we are committed to the european market. we are breaking a lot of innovation. jonathan: we will talk about products in all moment. in terms of diversification, a weaker euro does it make much of a difference to your company? jacques aschenbroich: not much. as i told you, intercontinental products a protection for us. when the euro is strong [indiscernible] now it is weaker. jonathan: take advantage of the funding conditions? jacques aschenbroich: of course where to make an acquisition. we are committed to the growth. we are not excluding acquisition.

our growth is around 8%, 9% a year. what we will say later today, we think we are the technology to keep on growing at 8% a year which is a long growth -- jonathan: is that what you are excited about, the technology? jacques aschenbroich: where we are in with fuel, where we are investing a lot. and driving, a combination of the car and driving and a human machine interface. drivers has to get used to the car being driven by its self. has to be comfortable with a car moving by itself. not here in london, but going to show business how far the driver

can get in a driven car. jonathan: in terms of the stop the stock is up 35%. i know you have diversified. is this a move about qe in the ecb or reflected of the fundamentals of your company? jacques aschenbroich: the fundamentals of the company. as we have looked as it has moved over the years, it has been 35%. and our long-term prospects because it increased last year and as much as -- our investors are having real confidence in our growth story. jonathan: they are confident. i am sure jacques aschenbroich is confident, the ceo and chairman of valeo. we will talk russia. where is putin?

speculation about vladimir putin amounts, he is set to make an appearance. more about that after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move to 30 minutes into your trading day. it a picture of the markets in europe. the ftse 100 up 0.3%. the dax up by 87 points. the stoxx 600 at the highest level since july 2007. the moves in crude and euro-dollar worth speaking about as well. euro-dollar touching a 12-year low overnight. shanghai hitting an august 2009 hi. premier li said he is ready to act. there is the move in nymex.

there you see the move in the shanghai overnight. euro-dollar comes back by 0.4%. a stronger euro this morning. mark barton over at the touchscreen. >> holes in one's to change the terms of its deal with lafarge. lafarge, the french company, has said today it is willing to consider revising the share exchange rates in that deal. holci is prompting some investorsm to say that the swiss company should call for a bigger stake in the new entity. both shares lower. lafarge is performing worse, down by 4%. h&m, you know the company. the number two clothing retailer in europe. shares up by 2%. february sales increased 15%.

we were anticipating a gain of 12.6%. the shares hit a record 365 swedish krona. that was on march 2. we are not far from there. about 16 swedish krona shy. siemens, shares of by 1.5%. the german industrial giant signed a 10 billion euro deal with memorandum for understanding with egypt to help expand its electricity network. those deals were signed at an economic conference over the weekend in a resort. that resort conference boosting investment to help revive the economy. lafarge lower, h&m up. jonathan: mark barton, thank you very much. a busy week for all things russia. today, eu foreign ministers meet to discuss that fragile truce in ukraine.

this wednesday marks the first anniversary of the annexation of crimea. the world has one question. where is putin? the russian president has not been seen since march 5. the internet a lot with speculation and rumor. if you believe any of that, the russian president has either been overthrown, has been with a lover, or has been struck down with a bout of flu. joining us to break through the noise is leonid. great to have you with us. where is putin and what is the significance of the fact that he hasn't been seen since march 5? guest: nobody really knows where he is. he is supposed to resurface today in st. petersburg. the president of kurdistan has flown there. i expect putin to show up. he's not likely to stand of the president of kurdistan

especially their. where he's been for the last 10 days is a mystery. you pick the rumors that you want to believe. i guess the issue is, everybody gets worried when putin goes missing for a day or two, which means he's basically concentrated all the power in russia in his hands which is not a nice arrangement. jonathan: do you really think that is the significance of this? is this just a western media hype story or something really being felt on the streets of moscow? leonid: well most ordinary russians are not really worried about putin. the journalists and the political establishment are in turmoil. it is very uncomfortable not to

see him every day as people have gotten used to. he hasn't been gone for so long from public view since 2003. this is an unusually long absence. for people who care about you know, how russia is run about the political side of things they are a bit worried. jonathan: just to wrap things up, you've got eu foreign ministers meeting today. where are we in terms of the relationship with the eu, the u.s., with russia? are things set to get worse before they get better? leonid: well, right now, the truce in ukraine is pretty much holding. there's been more achieved then after the first truce was agreed in september. there has been a pullback of

heavy your very -- of heavy weaponry from both sides. there are hopeful signs. actually, i think things are getting better. we are still pretty far off from the lifting of sanctions against russia, because basically, you know besides need to see the true successful. i'm pretty optimistic that so far it has been holding better than the previous cease-fire. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this morning. let's keep the conversation on russia. our next guest thinks the russian ruble could be one of the few currencies to hold up against the u.s. dollar this morning, this year rather. tom leviton joins us chief rate strategist at spur bank joining

us from moscow. bullish on the ruble. what is the logic behind that? tom: i think being bullish on the ruble may be stretching it. what we are trying to say is that with a bounce in the u.s. dollar through the course of this year, it is going to take a strong local story to see a local currency hold up against that strengthening u.s. dollar. the russian ruble, i wouldn't say it is a strong domestic story. what i would say is that financial markets are very depressed. valuations are very low. there is a potential for russia and the ruble to hold against the dollar, compared to many other currencies. jonathan: how exposed is that the rate to the price of oil? is that what this is all really about? tom: i think by and large you have to look at the oil story

first before you extrapolate out any particular scenario for the ruble. this is an extremely volatile currency. if you look at the market dollar-ruble, volatility strength -- still trades above 30%. we only recently moved away from that managed currency regime. there are very elevated risks around the ruble. what we have seen over the last few weeks is that financial security has returned. we haven't got the panic we have late last year. the central bank is cutting rates to try to inject life into the economy. there are some positives. it is a question of when you are coming to the market. jonathan: let's talk about the central bank. another sizable rate cut last week. some people were looking for more, several hundred basis points off the benchmark rate. are they likely to cut even more

given that rates are still above where they were in november last year? tom: i think so. i think the best case scenario is that they would fully remove that emergency rate hike that we had in september. that was during the height of the financial crisis, when markets were really very concerned. clearly, the economy is going to contract quite sharply this year. there are signs that inflation will be turning lower. we expect that to happen this year. i think the central bank will continue to cut rates. we think a 100 basis point rate cut at each meeting during the first half of this year. jonathan: tom, i want to keep it on the currency story. if you look at the strength of the dollar, dollar-denominated debt in russia is a big story. we haven't really seen it come

through into the markets. when do we start to see this story come to fruition? tom: to the honest the redemption story, that was one of the things which caused a lot of concern over the last few months, that largely plays out over the first quarter of this year. march, the current month, we had a redemption for the russians to pay back u.s. dollars. beyond that, that story is by and large played out. that's one of the reasons we can be slightly constructive on the ruble. we've seen a steady flow of investors in russia. we've had the two ratings downgrades of russia from two of the agencies, but there was definite interest about picking the right time. jonathan: final question for you. i'm not going to ask where's putin.

for you, are you seeing that uncertainty in the political sphere bleed across into any uncertainty in markets? it seems to mean that the markets are holding up quite well. tom: absolutely. as you say, this story has certainly caught the imagination, but if you look at the ruble at the open today, it has been pretty solid. at the moment, markets aren't particularly uncomfortable. the bigger event this week is the summit at the end of this week. i think the major sanctions due to expire in july will be rolled over until the end of this year. jonathan: tom levenson, thanks for joining us this morning. fx and rate strategist at sberb ank. as russia waits for putin to reemerge, we take a look at the

country suffering under its shadow. can the ukrainian economy come back? liebling you an exclusive -- we bring you an exclusive report after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back. let's -- equity markets continue their run of games. the dax going through 12,000 points. new all-time highs on the german equity benchmark. the equity market still up by 0.8%. the ftse mib gains around 20%

this year. the rally continues. up by over 1%. the ftse 100 in london up about 28 points as i speak. of course, russia also in focus this week. marking the anniversary of russia's annexation of crimea. one year on, we take an in-depth look at eastern ukraine. ryan chilcote got a look at an industry fundamental to ukraine's economy, mining. ryan: life in eastern ukraine was tough enough before it became a battlefield. this is coal coal country.

in the town, all but two of the 17 mines had already closed before the conflict began. life now is grinding to a halt. we are at the goal line, one of the towns --the coalm mine, one of the conn's last places of economic activity. >> my father was a miner. my great grandfather was killed by the germans and thrown into a mine. >> the miners on today's

shift are following in the tracks of at least three generations before them. this is absolutely crazy and not a place to go if you are claustrophobic. nowadays, the coal isn't easy to come by. the miners have to travel further for less. where we are right now in this mountain of coal -- boy, is it dusty. the last time they used the heavy machinery meant forgetting at big patches of coal was two years ago. the richest deposits are gone.

the mine was slated to close this year, but the new separatist government decided to keep it open. these miners are working for the promise of pay. none of them have seen their $90 a month paycheck in three months. even then, they only got 40% of it. they are working because they say the whole town will die if they stop mining. they just come like volunteers to work. >> i guess we broke away from ukraine. we are alone, just surviving. >> joining russia might be better, but it depends. >> who knows? have they said with any kind of conviction?

if they will provide work and a steady salary, why not? anyone will agree to that. >> a day in the mine doesn't wash away easily. especially now that the water is ice cold. the town's name means "snowy." legend has it, catherine the great gave it its name after conquering the turks. it became part of what she called new russia, a term that is popular again with the pro-russian separatists. so productive and fabled were its miners they were the focus of the world's first ever documentary with sound. nothing to brag about today. jonathan: that was ryan chilcote

with the first of his special reports on ukraine. we will bring you more from the region and an update on putin's whereabouts throughout this week. as we head to the break, equity markets over in germany, the dax through 12,000 points for the first time ever. it comes back a little bit, but still higher on the day. what a run of games we've had. the winning streak going into its 10th week, the longest winning streak since 1988. quite a run. we will talk about it after the break. ♪

jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro live from london. frankfurt taking the headlines. the next going through 12,000 points for the first time ever. let's get out of berlin. hans, we've gone back-and-forth about qe for several years. it has been germany that has made the most noise opposing qe. i'm seeing their benchmark equity index goes through 12,000 points. i've seen their borrowing costs near record lows. they are benefiting from it. hans: it is clear that germany is benefiting from it. they are also benefiting from a weaker euro. you can have a lot of debates

about quantitative easing whether the long-term gains are going to translate into investment. it is clear that it is going to drive down the euro. we get below 1.05 over the weekend. now it is trading a little above that. that is nothing but good news for the auto exporters, for germany's export and industrial economy. they are going to further benefit from that. i just looked at the seven-year note. it is basically free money for seven years. long-term yield very close to zero. remarkable story on the lending side. what is this going to do to the banks? we have commerzbank, deutsche bank, are they going to be crowded out? are they going to we having a harder time turning a profit? are they meeting their capital requirements if they can't make a whole lot of money because they are competing with the biggest bank in town, the ecb? jonathan: hans nichols, thank

you very much. i'm excited that you can get a return on seven-year debt in germany. "the pulse" coming up at the top of the hour. we are joined now by guy johnson. guy: i think we will talk about the markets. think about what has happened this week. germany going through that level the fed backing this all into midweek. oil continues to come under pressure. there is a mechanical process to discerning what is underway here. equity markets are trying to figure out whether larger oil companies are going to do better because of the lower exchange rate. if you are a non-euro investor, you've got a string of cash and a currency and the currency is moving lower. everything gets a little moved around as a result of the currency move. it is interesting stuff. money is pouring into european equities right now.

if you get a really strong signal from the fed this week, you start to see the u.s. markets under pressure, is that going to yank away from that? jonathan: that is the story for the markets. the top story for twitter where is putin? guy: there's a couple things happening. one of which is the aviation geeks tracking an aircraft that putin regularly uses. it landed this morning. maybe he is there. it is a fun story. i think the putin story is one that needs to sit next to the sanction story, the ukrainian story. we've got these foreign ministers meeting in europe today. this could i think generate -- jonathan: busy on "the pulse" this morning. it is another day of gains for european equity markets. the dax at an all-time high. remarkable stuff, heading for a

10th week of gains. if you want to talk, you know where i am. i'm on twitter. a very good luck for the rest of your day. ♪

guy: reaching new heights. germany's dax hits 12,000 for the first time ever. for the crude plants, oil drops to 2009 lows as investors await news from the fed. and, where is putin? after disappearing from the public eye, the russian president is scheduled to be in st. petersburg today. good morning. you are watching "the pulse."