tv The Pulse Bloomberg March 16, 2015 5:00am-6:01am EDT
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guy: reaching new heights. germany's dax hits 12,000 for the first time ever. for the crude plants, oil drops to 2009 lows as investors await news from the fed. and, where is putin? after disappearing from the public eye, the russian president is scheduled to be in st. petersburg today. good morning. you are watching "the pulse."
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we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm guy johnson. francine lacqua is not here today. let's start with some big market news. at the end of the first trading our this monday morning, that act in germany -- the dax in germany has hit an all-time high. we are through 12,000. we are up nearly 1%. european equities are largely -- money continuing to move into the european space. the gap between u.s. equities in valuation terms and u.s. equities, european equities, absolutely massive. how long before we see that starting to compress? oil is the flip side of all this. 2009 lows is where we are. we are down by nearly a percent this morning. nymex over in the states trading at 44.46, down 0.8%.
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big event of the week we all know what it is. the fed, is that language going to be changed? how significantly will it be changed? anyway let's figure all that out. let's get some context from hans nichols. hans, i guess it was an inevitability. with the euro doing what it is doing and money looking for a home, the dax is going to go through this level. a significant day. hans: we will see whether or not it is a significantly technical day, whether or not pushing through 12,000 opens an air pocket about that. there have been a lot of debate about what will happen when europe undertakes quantitative easing. we saw that over the weekend with master varoufakis. except on the point of whether it will -- of what it will do to the equity markets.
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they are both united. it is going to lead to a boom. look at what the s&p did in the states after the third round of unabated easing. they got their balance sheet to 4.3. we will see whether or not the run in the dax and other european indices are as high and as fast as what happened with the s&p and other indices in north america. also take a look at borrowing costs. we were talking about this a few minutes ago. the seven-year, pretty much close to zero. that is a good indication of what the borrowing costs are going to do. when we get to the valuation section, we have to see what corporate earnings will be, how much benefit is there going to be from a weaker euro. it is going to help the companies. how much is it going to help the export driven countries? guy: i think what is going to be really interesting is to talk about the wealth effect. one of the reasons the fed
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decided to pump up asset prices was because of the wealth effect. it is unlikely to have anything like a meaningful impact in germany. hans: the important thing about what the fed did, is they bought a lot of mortgage backed securities. it wasn't all sovereign debt. they want to play in the housing market as well. when you look at the ratios, what draghi is trying to do is more on the sovereign side. are you going to be able to get banks to start moaning to small and medium-size businesses so they start hiring people? not just in germany, but in the southern states. in some ways, we are in uncharted territory. in some ways, we are not because we have the fed example. the fed example was a booming stock market, rising inequality lower borrowing costs, and a downtick in unemployment. guy: hans, thank you very much indeed. the dax through 12,000. the european union's foreign
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ministers are meeting today in brussels. the issues most likely to top the agenda ukraine and sanctions on russia. for more, let's go to brussels. walk us through what the goals are for today's meeting. >> the foreign ministers, it will be there latest meeting on the russian sanctions and the situation in ukraine. they face a complex situation. on the one hand, the situation in eastern ukraine seems to have stabilized a little bit. the cease-fire seems to be holding. that is the main criteria that they are looking at in terms of whether or not to the five the sanctions or lessen the sanctions. they have to be looking at all that including what mr. putin had to say yesterday, saying how crimea, he orchestrated the
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annexation of crimea ahead of time. these are his strongest words yet on russia's participation in that. this week is the first anniversary of that annexation. the foreign ministers in brussels are going to have to look at the whole situation and try to get an idea of what is going on. guy: it was interesting, talking about the nuclear element to it. talking of another nuclear element, in terms of priorities today we are also needing to talk about iran. jones: iran is a side issue for the foreign ministers. the iranian foreign minister is going to be in town and have meetings with the eu germany france, and the u.k. after the regular foreign ministers meeting. they are trying to get a framework agreement before the end of this month. at this point, it is unclear how much progress is going to be
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made. the u.s.'s kerry is trying to push these talks forward, but we are getting mixed signals from the u.s. and the eu foreign ministers are trying to coordinate their approach with the u.s. guy: jones, thank you very much for that update. and, one of the stories we are focusing on, mr. putin. russia's president, vladimir putin has been front and center in the press over the last few days, but not physically. putin disappearing from public view. he hasn't made an appearance since talks with the italian prime minister, matteo renzi, back on march 5. there's been a great deal of gossip about his whereabouts, speculation about his health. the kremlin has put out a schedule for the week. it starts today. putin apparently is set to meet with the president of cars a
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stand. we are waiting to see if it is going to actually turn out to be a reality. let us know what you think. the very simple twitter question of the day, where do you think vladimir putin is? some say he's got the flu. some say there are other things going on in his life. where do you think he is? let us know. this is what else is on our radar. oil has extended its collapse to the lowest price since march 2009. the fall comes amid speculation record u.s. supply may start to strain storage capacity. the international energy agency predicted u.s. crude tanks may fill up -- the cubs we are seeing are failing to stem the amount of oil flowing. chinese stocks rose today after premier li pledged to take action if economic growth slows too much.
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li says the government will take additional steps in china's growth, which the government is targeting around 7%. the shanghai composite closed 2.3% higher. israelis cast their vote tomorrow. final opinion polls show the opposition led by isaac herzog with a minor lead over benjamin netanyahu. polls also show netanyahu having a better chance of pulling together a coalition with parties who share his wariness of making further concessions to the palestinians. coming up, u.k. cancer george osborne says they are watching any giveaways and his budget. we will have a preview of wednesday's announcement. plus, victoria beckham. we will talk to the fashion designer about her big plans in
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this is good for everybody in the euro area. this generates additional growth momentum which has to be strengthened by further measures in the country as well. not just exports. guy: that was the italian finance minister speaking to us in cernobbio over the weekend. this morning, we continue to see it being pushed ever lower. 12-year lows, trading a little bit off a little north of 1.05. we are off by thre -- by 0.3%. what is going to happen with the fed? we can't ignore what is happening with greece. let's talk about all this. let's talk to bnp's head of fx strategy. good morning, stephen. wednesday is the big event, isn't it?
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the fed, if we start to see the language changing significantly, how much more is priced in? >> this is the key event of the week. the markets are still pricing in, if you look at two-year yields in the u.s., plenty of potential for them to rise. from that perspective, you could see the dollar continued to do more. we think the key point is going to be -- we think that that will probably tweak it by saying this doesn't mean we honor tightening. they want to maintain flexibility. we think september is the timing, but we wouldn't rule out june just yet. guy: my sense is, and this is only anecdotal, that there is a belated realization that this is going to happen. i don't know if it is muscle
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memory or whatever it is, after such a long time with weights -- with rates where they are people can't believe that it is going to happen. steven: i think that is a fair point. the key focus is the low level of headline inflation. what the fed has told us is, they are willing to look through that headline inflation and look at where inflation is going. if you are a central bank are, you don't really care about inflation. it is where inflation is going. i think from that perspective the fed will hike. as far as the market being positioned for it, i think the key focus here is what is priced in as far as the dollar's concerned. we have our own proprietary positioning indicator. it tells us that the market was longer dollars in january than right now according to our perspective. we think there could be further to go.
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i would say maybe dollar-yen and dollar-swiss could be the ones to play catch-up right now. the dollar has gone up against the euro. guy: did the speed of the euro move catch you by surprise? we read some analysis talking about, if it continues to move at this pace, the germans are going to be saying, we can't do qe. how critical is the pace of change here? steven: i think it caught everybody by surprise. going back to the positioning, our view would be that the market wasn't positioned for eurozone qe in january. i think it was on the skids as her whether it would be introduced. as far as the impact on ecb qe our view is that they are going to stick with their guns. they are going to stay with the september 2016 end date for qe.
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i think the key focus is credibility. they need to maintain the credibility. you mentioned germany during that is a good one. the point we would make is, german growth is likely to pick up. you can see it already. i would draw a comparison with japan. when we had qe in japan, what did it do, boost the nikkei and weaken the yen. our view is that we will see a similar pattern in the eurozone. guy: stay with us steven. i want to talk about the u.k. in a few minutes time. after the break, we will be talking about victoria beckham. she is looking east. we will hear from the british fashion designer about her hands in hong kong -- her plans in hong kong. ♪
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guy: welcome back. we are gearing up for the u.k. budget this week. with less than seven weeks to go the general election. george osborne has told the bbc there will be no gimmicks on wednesday. let's get more on what we can expect. what can we expect? what are the headlines? >> we know a few things. the personal allowance is going to be raised. pension reforms are going to be extended. what we can expect is a surprise
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of some kind. he doesn't have much room, but he has some. this is his last chance. guy: it is difficult because of the way he can't actually legislate anything to make it stick. to what extent is he going to leave things out of the budget and have them more as an election campaign rather than announcing them today? is there a political debate happening about what he can and cannot do with the budget? svenja: yes, there is. he is still in a coalition. the lib dems have to sign off. any short terms will be signed off by the liberal democrats. we might get a few little things here. we might get things that look big but when you get into them
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they don't cost the taxpayer that much. what we are certainly going to get is a sense of austerity paying off in the future. so promises that the years of pain will be worth it. subtext will be, if you elect us, which many feel they need to hear. guy: stephen, let's bring you into the conversation. is it more of a prelude to what we can expect in terms of the general election? steven: i think as far as the fx markets, the election is the story and particularly whether there will be a referendum on the eu. as far as the budget is concerned, a key point here is what is going to be the impact on rate hikes in the u.k. our view is february for the timing of the first rate hike. if we have a loosening of fiscal
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policy, it could make that earlier. from ours active, that is the key driver of the pound. we've got qe in the eurozone very loose policy. the eu -- the u.k., like the u.s., set to tighten policy. sterling against the euro has come a long way. it has come from a low level. euro-sterling was trading at 60-65. we are still only at 71. we think over the medium-term there is a lot further to go. guy: it is interesting he brings up the issue of this referendum. over the weekend, we had this whole by ukip. how does that actually stack up politically? svenja: well osborne dismissed this yesterday. it is going to be very, very hard to hold a referendum before 2017.
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the promise that was made is, we will get a referendum by the end of 2017. there's been talk of a possible plan for 2016. what you've got to remember is that cameron will be campaigning for britain to stay in the eu. it is in his interest to have as much time as possible to get the reforms he wants before he puts into a national vote. guy: how does this all play out? we are in a scenario right now where we don't know if it is going to be 2015 2016, 2017 for a referendum. how do you price in the risk? steven: i think this is a tricky one. that is why the election is so important. it is the conservatives that pledged the referendum on the eu. i would argue a conservative victory may actually create uncertainty as far as sterling is concerned. you could see a spike on a
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conservative outcome. if it is a labor victory, or labor has a cast of form a government, i think there's less fallout as well as -- as far as sterling is concerned. the bottom line is, the market has to compare this near-term volatility with the fact that we are going to get a rate hike. i think the way to play this is probably position longer sterling towards year-end, maybe by a little protection around the election. guy: svenja, give us the inside track as to what people are saying in westminster. we've got a budget coming up. we are into what feels like the final phases of the election. it starts to get sticky from here on in. what is the gossip? what are the key things people are focusing on? the inside track is often different to the one that we see. svenja: i would love to say that everyone is making predictions.
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this election is really quite astonishing in the fact that even the most seasoned political commentator has no clue what is going to happen on may 7. the talk is all about political scenarios. what you can say is that nothing is off the table until you get that vote. any kind of coalition or possibly the tories making a deal with ukip cannot be completely ruled out. that's why senior politicians have been careful not to do so. guy: how critical is this week? how critical is the budget? if people's a rabbit out of the hat, how critical could that be? svenja: there's some debate over pre-election budgets. i think the data has been behind him. i think the tories have certainly come across as being the most trustworthy. what they've also got to show is
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. . . ♪ guy: good morning, you're watching "the pulse" live from european headquarters. we're in london. i'm guy johnson. let's get some of bloomberg's top stories now. more than a million people took to the streets of cities across brazil to protest government corruption. some called for the impeachment of president rusef embroiled in a corruption firm called petrobrass. and his ratings plummet after he won an election last november. they plan prescription measures
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in response to the protests. the government has declared a nationwide state of emergency after cyclone pam tore through archipelago. at least eight people were killed and communications with remote islands have been cut off. aid has already begun arriving. but president baldwin says the president has quite wiped out development on the island. and in moscow, a fire has broken out in the bell tower of the novodevichy convent. it dates from the 17th century and is a unesco world heritage site. 24 hours to go until the
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israelis vote in their election. points for a win for the zionist union but doesn't mean it will form the next government. our editor explains. elliot: after the government imploded two years before time, israelis will vote for a new one march 17. up for grabs, 120 seats in israel's 20th knesset or parliament and the chance to be israel's 19th prime minister. no party has ever won a majority. coalition is inevitable and where things get interested. of the 26 parties running fewer than half are expected to get more than 3.25% of the vote, the minimum needed to win a seat. those that do may find themselves as kingmakers either in a right wing government led by benjamin netanyahu or by a coalition led by isaac herzog who leads the zionist union.
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it there is one possibility they join forces to form a government of national unity. in israeli politics you never know. bloomberg, tel aviv. guy: for more on the israeli election and how results could impact the country's business climate. let's go live to elliot who is in tel aviv. elliot: thank you, guy joining us from the tel aviv stock exchange and joined by the c.e.o. of the exchange to discuss how these elections are affecting business here in israel. great to have you here again. for the stock exchange and companies listed here, for your members, do these elections actually matter? >> absolutely. in a country as small as israel probably matter more than most countries and unlike prior elections, the economic discussion is very lively and i believe the result of -- whatever the result is will benefit us greatly because the focus will be on the exchange,
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not solely obviously but on the financial markets and what we can do to help the israeli economy. elliot: what do you want from the next government, whatever its composition? yossi: one conclusion we have is the most important thing for the israeli economy is to encourage growing companies. we have a phenomenon here that we are the startup nation but in a way a lot of companies reach semimaturity and they actually get sold to larger companies and that's great obviously for the founders and investors but not good for the economy. elliot: you want to encourage growth companies to list and persuade them to come here first rather than the u.s. but how will you persuade growth companies to come here companies here already, big companies, oil and gas companies, banks, for example, are being hammered by regulations right now. yossi: there's a huge difference in between companies growing fast in which issues of
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control, stakeholders and such don't exist. the country made a decision that the premium that was paid by the fact there was a controlling interest in the company should be somehow changed and they've changed legislation and done all they're going to do and i think they're done. now the focus is on small and large growing companies and small companies don't have the issues and startups have reached the stage they're worth $200 million and not ready for nasdaq yet but are too small and need capital and we have to encourage them and doing that will include changing the laws putting incentives in place. we have a plan together and as far as i understand all the politicians think they are very, very good ideas and think anybody, whoever comes into power and will be the finance minister will implement the things that are needed and is good for us. elliot: glad you mentioned the finance minister because his party could well be a kingmaker and he's kind of campaigning solely on his possibility of being a finance minister and
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netanyahu has offered him that role already if netanyahu wins and forms a government of course. and he says, to quote him, will sit in any government that allows us to beat the banks and doesn't bed well for many of the companies like lumi. yossi: they are bank membered and honors because we haven't mutualalized yet. the focus of the tel aviv stock exchange are the small and growing companies. and all the ministries will focus on this and understand it's important and would be absolutely no issue putting together and pushing forward the plans and what we think we should do. elliot: i have to ask you a couple other questions. very quickly, you were still negotiating with nsci to be included in the european benchmark. how are those discussions going? yossi: we're now in a stage of what their customers are
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saying. elliot: what are they saying? yossi: we haven't had time to go around and ask them, we should be included in europe because as far as we're concerned, the economy is tied to europe more than any other place and is our hope and hope it will succeed and solve the problem of exposure of the israeli economy and companies to use foreign investors. elliot: you're looking at maybe getting the exchange to trade friday to friday instead of sunday to thursday and would change our weekend and ours and happy other people. is it likely to happen if i'm right in thinking the securities authority didn't seem too keen on the idea. yossi: what they said, rightly so, if this is what the foreign investors want and the exchange members think they should do, we should. we're in the middle of the process because the cost potentially associated with that could be quite high. for instance, banks don't open all their branches on friday and suddenly if the exchange is open they may have to do this and include costs and we're trying to understand the precise modeling whether it
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will say to us it's a good or bad idea and suspect the next two months we'll reach a decision and say 50/50. i don't know. i don't have an right or wrong. if the market needs it we'll do. elliot: the c.e.o. of the stock exchange. thank you. i didn't ask you who you are going to vote for but see if it has an impact after tomorrow. for now we'll hand it back to you in london. guy: thank you very much, indeed. coming up we'll speak exclusively to the c.e.o. of the conduct authority. that's a conversation that you do not want to miss. stay tuned. he'll be here shortly. ♪
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guy: good morning. welcome back. you're watching "the pulse" live from bloomberg's headquarters. general electric is selling its australian and financial services unit. it's been bought for $6.3 billion by an investor group made up. they're calling it one of the largest equity deals, adding to the assets sold by g.e. in the last year. they said they are willing to consider revising the share exchange ratio of its plans, merging with halston but has ruled out further modifications
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to the terms and they have received a letter indicating the swiss company won't pursue the planned mergers under the terms agreed last summer. the c.e.o. of valio has said his company is growing fast in the european market and spoke to bloomberg in london later today. here's what he had to say. >> we're committed to europe but will grow as long as our market is growing in europe. our market is growing but not as fast as it is in the u.s. or china. the lower market in europe will grow more or less at the speed of the g.d.p. growth but we're growing much faster because our product shows motivation and allows us to grow much faster than the european market. guy: tough new banking regulations are being unveiled in the conduct authority. martin wheatley will announce the changes later today but before he does he joins us now
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for an exclusive interview. good morning. this is about personal responsibility? martin: that's right. so much reforms focused on liquidity, leverage and this is about to getting individuals accountable for what goes on in industry. guy: how will you make this happen? martin: there's a new regime that will focus on the senior individuals and the old regime was too widespread and being quite clear of with a the responsibility of those individuals are and there then will be an accreditation scheme where semiconductor people in firms, the firms themselves will be required to account to us on an annual basis that those individuals continue to meet the standards we expect of them. guy: one of the issues we've seen with the banking sector, those are the top that not necessarily have line of sight with those that are maybe doing things they shouldn't be. is this going to help to correct this and stay with that problem? martin: i think that's one of the problems when something goes wrong, they say not on my
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watch or i wasn't aware of it. one of the things we're requiring firms to do is a responsibility map, tell us exactly who is responsible, who is responsible for treasury and remuneration packages and different product lines? once we've got that map, we'll know exactly who the individual is we look to in the senior line and also they will know what we would expect from them. guy: how quickly does this change things? once you start seeing responsibility being mapped out more quickly do you think it has an immediate effect on behavior, do you think this is part and parcel of a long going trend within that behavior modification story? martin: it will have a fairly immediate effect and this regime will come in effect by march of next year and is not a huge amount of time by those getting that responsibility maps designed. i think it will focus the mind. when somebody tells you you're not only responsible for this within our organization chart, but this is what the regulator will hold you to, i think it does focus them. guy: how does it fit with the
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global picture and what others are doing? martin: everybody in the world is struggling, frankly. this is a u.k. response and is a follow-on from the parliamentary on banking standards and is what the u.k. is doing but other regulators in europe and u.s. are looking at the same sort of issues. the fact is you can't wait. if you wait, you move at the pace of the slowest and it's quite a complex thing to negotiate on a international and global scale. guy: where are we in getting to the points you and the regulators have imposed enough oversight, enough change on to the banking sector that you feel you're beginning to get a grip on the story? 's martin: i think in terms of change in terms of european regulation, we're probably halfway through the number of directives that have come in. the u.s. have clearly, some way, will recognize it's some way to go. in the u.k. we made our own initiatives and own specific tailored responses to what happened.
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now it's about implementation and not about the creating new rules and policies but about making them stick. guy: follow a question on this subject. the fact you are having to put in effective maps of management structure, that you the regulate -- regulator are having to do this for these banking institutions tells me the institutions are too complex. it's absolutely amazing some is something management doesn't already have. martin: it's fascinating. we have experiences we may want to investigate and have a rogue trader in the bank and we have gone in and tell us who the immediate line manager is and the bank can't tell us and we go and identify four people who say these are the people we think and every one will turn up with their lawyers and give us a good argument why they were not a manager of the particular trade. but it's surprising that's the case but it's a fact. guy: the conclusion from that is the banks are too complex. martin: i think they're undoubtedly complex, but i think they haven't been managed or tightly as well as they
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could have been. guy: are they too complex to manage? the example you just gave, is that an indication that he are too complex to manage? him martin: i don't think so. i think they have not been managed well. guy: one final quick question as well. we're waiting for the budget this week. and we're waiting to see what the mention rules changes are. i'm not going to ask you to precondition, but you are in a very interesting position where to see how difficult it is to establish rules on a second annuity market give us a sense how complex that will be? martin: i think it will be complex. the nature of anunity is about trying to work out some combination of compound interest, future inflation prospects in longevity and that's a tough calculation to make. clearly, all the insurance companies have actuarial tables and can work that out. for an individual it's a incredibly difficult thing to value. one of the things we'll be working on the next year is what sort of rules those firms who are offering this sort of
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service, what are the rules they have to aspire to. the truth is once you give people freedom and this is what all these changes are about, it's about giving individuals freedom, then they're also free to make mistakes. it's all very well to be free to take your own solutions but have to be free to make mistakes as well. guy: are there models we can work where with we can see this elsewhere in the world? martin: i think in australia they've had this market operating for some time. i think the u.s. market and second half life policies effectively you can learn a number of things from that as well. it's not impossible and have existed in other markets around the world. guy: thank you for your time. martin wheatley, the f.c.a. c.e.o. coming up, russia waits for putin to reemerge, we'll look at the country suffering under his long shadow. can the ukrainian economy come back from a year of devastation? we'll bring you an exclusive report. ♪
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ryan: life in eastern ukraine was tough enough before it became a battlefield. this is coal country. the land of slag has been on its back since the collapse of the soviet union. in this town, all but two of the 17 mines had already closed before the conflict began. life now is grinding to a halt. ryan: we're at one of the town's last engines of economic activity the coal mine, and we're heading 600 meters beneath the surface. >> been doing this 20 years, going down in this elevator. my father was a piner, my
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grandfather was a miner, and my great grandfather was killed by the germans and thrown into a mine. ryan: the miners on today's shift are following in the tracks of at least three generations before them. this is absolutely crazy and not a place to go if you're claustrophobic. nowadays the coal isn't easy to come by. the miners have to travel further for less. check this out. where we are right now in in mountain of coal is exactly one
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meter above us and boy is it dusty. the last time they used a heavy machinery meant at getting to big patches of coal was two years ago. the richest we posits -- deposits are gone. the mine was slated to close this year but the new separatist government citied to keep it open. these miners are working for the promise of pay. no one has seen their $90 a month paycheck in three months and even then they only got 40% of it. ryan: these guys aren't getting paid but working because they say the whole town will die if they stop mining. so they come like volunteers to work. miner: i guess we broke away
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from ukraine. seems nobody needs us. we're alone just surviving. joining russia might be better but it depends. who knows. the grass is always greener and who knows if they want us. if they said with any kind of convention we'll take you under a roof and why you possess this and that and we'll provide work and a steady salary, then why not? anyone would agree to that. ryan: a day in the mind doesn't wash away easily, especially now that the water is ice cold. the town's name means snowy. legend has it katherine the great gave it its name on a snowy day after conquering this land from the turks and became part of what she called new russia a term that's popular again with the pro russian separatists.
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so productive and fabled were the miners they were the focus of the world's first ever documentary with sound and the right to light a star on top of the mind and at last lit the star a couple years ago, nothing to brag about today. guy: ryan down a mine in eastern ukraine showing how tough life is in that part of the world right now. we're going to have more throughout the week from ryan. in the meantime, let's talk a little bit more about russia. the big question everybody is asking themselves is where is vladimir putin? he's been m.i.a. the last few days. a lot of speculation about his whereabouts. he is a master tactician some would say, if it's part and parcel of the process. he is scheduled to be in some pieces but today i've been talking about it the last few days, somebody might have
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will vladimir putin darken the door in st. petersburg today. he is missing. will he meet with the kurdistan president. there are 67 teams and the university of kentucky march madness desends. good morning everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york. it is monday, march 16. i'm tom keen. joining me, olivia stearns and we welcome back from a long sabbatical one bee greeley as well. how was brazil? >> from a week's vacation. i'm tanned neither rested nor ready. tom: let's get to our top headlines. here's olivia stearns. olivia: john kerry is hinting they are ready to walk away from talking from the iran nuclear program. kerry is there to resume negotiations and warned the clock is ticking to a deadline the end of march. kerry appeared on cbs' "face the nation" and repeated his
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