tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg March 17, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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mark: from bloomberg head quarters in new york, this is "bottom line." two re: viewers in the united states and those of you joining us from around the world, welcome. we have full coverage of the stocks and stories making headlines on this tuesday. chief washington correspondent has details on the $3.8 trillion budget that increases spending and cut social programs.
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israelis go to the polls to elect a prime minister. but first, let's get you to the top stories we are following on this st. patrick's a. u.s. housing starts fell by the most important years. home starts plunged 17% you can blame the cold and unusual weather. there was a rise in a number of building permits, so this may be a temporary break. rejection of a $22 billion takeover offer they say it substantially undervalues the company. they own or have stakes in more than 50 miles across the united states -- malls across the united states.
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a chinese property owner may try to purchase cushman and wakefield. he is one of several parties considering a bid. cushman is the biggest privately held provider of commercial property services. it is currently controlled by a holding company. the managers who took over from bill gross of pimco are prospering after reversing one of his bet. it is now less exposed to debt maturing within five years. gross was a cofounder of pimco, but departed suddenly in late september. but as a look at the top stories we are following on this tuesday. in about two hours pulls in israel will be closing. let's get the latest from bloomberg's middle east editor elliott. he joins me live from tel aviv.
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prime minister netanyahu is warning against a high arrow turnout. why, and are his comments being seen as offensive? elliott: his comments are being seen as at best politically, at worst racist. he has also been trying to shore up his struggling baseball the last few days. last night he talked about there being no palestinians date on his watch. he said he would not form a government of national unity. some have said this is just politics. if he does have the opportunity to get into a government coalition with herzog of the opposition, and i am here where he will be celebrating or
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commiserating later on, he may be saying otherwise. this is such a tight election we do not only not know who will win but the person who comes second. mark: one about -- what about herzog stance on the palestinians. those talks could be revived if he is elected. elliott: one of his promises not his top priority because that is houses and the pricey living but he has promised to read that talks with the palestinians. that is something the white house will be very keen on. in response to netanyahu's comments, the white house has said that the u.s. still supports a two state solution. no one realistically thinks that
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if herzog wins, he reforms the government, and stress talks with the palestinians, and they get toward agreement that we would get one within the four your team -- year term that comes from these elections. i think it is a case of attitude and style in the white house and israel. mark: elliott joining us live from tel aviv. thank you. tom is a fellow at the center for middle east policy at looking -- at bookings. welcome to "bottom line." tom: my pleasure. mark: which candidate has the momentum?
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tom: it is clearly with the opposition. he is running at the top of the labor party and the zionist party. but it is still very close. we will not know the winner at the end of the vote tonight. maybe a few weeks before one of the candidates can form a coalition. israel is very fractured, a coalition has to be formed a long them to pass 50% of the parliament. mark: he has tried to shore up support from hardliners. are they listening to his last-minute appeals? tom: what he is trying to do is threaten if his party is not big enough he may not get the mandate to form a coalition. the fear from the right is that the kingmaker if he decides to go with the left of the left can
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form the government. netanyahu is trying to make sure his party is large enough so there will be momentum on his side. the main prey are the far right. he is going there to make sure his party is large enough in a multiparty system. mark: now, as you alluded to, he is regarded as a kingmaker in israeli politics. how did he come to exert such influence? tom: the system and israel make sure that no party has more than 50%. you have to have 50% to form a government brady will always have a coalition. when both sides are very even as they seem to be right now, than the party in the center can often have an outside effect on who wins. right now, if the numbers hold, then you will see him with that
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swing vote. if he sighs to the left, herzog might be prime minister. if he goes to the right, netanyahu seems very safe. he might get the position of finance minister, and it leaves him in a particular position of kingmaker. mark: he is alluded to reviving peace efforts with the palestinians. is that gaining any tract with the israeli voters, in light of the comment yesterday that he would prevent the establishment of the palestinian state? tom: in israel when we say right and left, we really mean dovish and hawkish.
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most israelis support a state solution, but they are very skeptical of the possibility of reaching it. or of how smart it is to reach it in this in time with the security threat run israel in the middle east. so mr. herzog is much more dovish than mr. netanyahu. they are focused more on domestic issues. it will be much more meaningful if they reignite talks, but it is unsure if they can conclude peace. mark: you spoke of either party winning a majority, that has never happened in israeli history. why? tom: the system is very different from that of the united states. there is no senator from jerusalem or congressman from tel aviv you vote for parties who list the representatives. your committee parties in parliament -- you have different
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parties in parliament with the percentage of the votes. the result is that none of the parties is very large with after form coalitions to govern. mark: a little less than a minute left, i have to ask because domestic role of six being what they are in the united states, does washington have a horse in this race? is the relationship so fracture that washington to see mr. herzog as prime minister? tom: different parts of washington, yes. it is unfortunate it is become such an issue. clearly, many people among republicans on the hill would prefer netanyahu. the division is quite clear, and for u.s. israeli relations, it is not a healthy division. mark: in terms of the economy
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what is going to happen if he is reelected? how will they deal with the economic issues? >> in terms of macroeconomics, they will have a rather similar approach. the rhetoric on the left is very different. it is much more about social equity and closing the gaps between the rich and the floor and the cost of living. you will have some very important reforms. but some of those are not leftist reports -- reforms, they are about breaking monopolies and bringing in regulation. but by and large, in terms of foreign investment and terms of macroeconomic indicators, i expect both the roots to follow a similar path. mark: joining us from
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mark: welcome back. here are the top stories we are following. apple is going to expand its trade in business to smartphones. a person familiar with the matter says apple plans to start accepting android and blackberry phones as trade-ins. the company is trying to boost sales of its new iphone 6 and six plus phones. the funds now beating android
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devices in the united states. pinterest has been valued at $11 billion, more than twice the value it placed on itself last may. the company has raised 367 million dollars from investors and may get $211 million more. that is a look at the top stories we are following. president obama unveiled his budget in february. now it is the republicans turn to spell out there spending priorities. it started today the house budget committee where tom price revealed plans dramatically different from the president. peter cook is on capitol hill with the details. . peter: i'm a little leery after reading these details, and that is the way the budget process works. last time around, chairman price took over this year and we have within his plan any controversial ideas we have seen in past volatiles.
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under the new plan, once again the balance of the government would be balanced on the books within 10 years, by cutting $5.5 trillion over the next 10 years. there would be savings of $2 trillion by repealing the health care law in full, there are also major reforms to medicare, medicaid, and food stamps. privatizing medicaid would save as well. the spending caps would stay in place from sequestration. defense spending increases from other parts of the budget. >> our budget, a balanced budget for stronger america is a path forward to that brighter future. a government lives within its means, where washington is more
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efficient, and effective and accountable. peter: they had a very different take on this proposal. the president earlier today saying that this land undercuts key domestic priorities. obama: it is not a budget that reflects the future. it is not about to the reflects growth. it is not a budget that is going to help ensure that middle-class families are able to maintain security and stability and people who are trying to get into the middle class will have rungs on the letter to get in -- ladder to get in. dpeter: he has a balancing act to pull off. we will get a different republican budget from the
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senate tomorrow, and you can see some movement on those domestic cuts. a lot of republicans in the senate running for reelection they do not want to face tough cuts. mark: thank you. coming up the deadline for the iran nuclear deal is tito weeks away. we will look at the issues that still stand in the way of a possible deal when bottom line continues in a moment. ♪
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mark: welcome back. the deadline for a deal on iran's nuclear program is an two weeks. the u.s. secretary of state john kerry is currently in switzerland to meet with his iranian counterpart. our bloomberg foreign policy corresponded joins me on the phone. are we finally going to get a deal? >> there is a huge push going on
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now to make the self-imposed march 31 deadline free -- show some sort of agreement. u.s. officials have told us that any major element could be a dealbreaker. we know it this point that talks are going to need to adjourn by friday because of the iranian new year and senator kerry has an important meeting next week. we could break for a while and come back for a push to the 31st. from the point of view of the e united states, they want to make sure that iran is at
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least one year from nuclear breakout. if they were to break out of the nonproliferation treaty, that it would take them one year to get a nuclear weapon. on the other side of the ledger they want to get all of these sanctions out of the way that of cripple their economy over the last few years. but the united states is going to do is cut off all of the path that iran has to material to make a bomb. mark: this letter, the letter that 47 u.s. senators sent to the iranian leadership, is that having an impact on these negotiations? hasn't thrown any wrench into the talks? indira: it definitely came up it was raised on sunday at a lower
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level, and then it was raised again by the foreign minister on monday morning. i think the iranians are savvy enough that they know with this letter means. it is part of a larger issue which is the public messaging that is coming up from all sides. when one side says we are almost at a deal, and of the other says i do not know if they can ever make it, part of it is about shaping public opinion, game theory, and i you can get the best deal. so yes, the iranians did not like the letter, but that is not going to be the problem that tells the deal if they are not able to get one. mark: if the sanctions are lifted, what happens to the oil? indira: that is the number one question, and the iranians want to know. the oil minister said that if sanctions are lifted they think they could add one million barrels per day onto the market
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within a few months. and the claims that this is not going to affect oil price. just to step back from this, there is no way that the international community is going to agree to let oil sanctions right away. that is a big thing at the end of this tunnel. the u.s. has made clear that they are going to ease sanctions and an -- in a gradual way. mark: r for calls be -- our foreign policy correspondent telling us about the ongoing iranian nuclear negotiations. coming up, how the desire for real sex u.s. -- four oil -- for oil affects u.s. aircraft. ♪
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mark: welcome back to the second half-hour bloomberg bottom line. i am mark crumpton. thank you for staying with us. let's get you some of the top stories we are following on st. patrick's day. let's begin by checking the price of crude oil in the close of trading in new york. down 1.25%. a change in the top four ube looking for ar -- uber, looking for a new cfo.
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american airlines ceo says the persian gulf carriers pose a threat to u.s. jobs because the middle east companies are benefiting from unfair government subsidies. investor owned u.s. airlines cannot compete with state backed lines. >> we love to compete. it just needs to be on a fair, level playing field. this case decidedly is not. and is not good for united states jobs, and we think we must have talks about it. mark: that is a look at the top stories we are following at this hour. rising demand for more fuel-efficient aircraft is pushing airbus to boost its production of its workforce playing, the single aisle a320
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matt miller spoke with alan carter about production plans. alan: we have created a production facility in mobile, alabama. we will build up to four months very -- a month very quickly. we have the capacity to go to aid a month, but we will start it for a month, and see what the market demand is. matt: what do you think about the fact that it is built in the united states? alan: look what happened in the automobile's industry when we came to united states. we will see the same effect. our airline customers are very excited about having an airplane that is assembled in the united date. matt: how many jobs when you
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create, and what do you think the impact will be? alan: there will be about 1000 jobs at this place, and it will be impactful on the gulf coast. a big deal. matt: what do you think about fuel prices? while you were doing your planning, you probably did not think that oil would go to $44 a barrel. how does that affect your long-term planning now? alan: most fleets plan 10-15 years in advance, so lower prices have zero impact. this actually allows us to have better economics to buy new aircraft. they are so much more fuel efficient. we have about 2600 new airplanes , just in the united states alone over the next 20 years.
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matt: we see them pushing to reengineer the airbus 380 to make it more fuel-efficient. alan: the industry will be more divided by these things for many years to come we see more demand for airplanes. matt: you are focused on the three tunney in mobile, alabama -- 320 in mobile alabama. when will you see the u.s. airlines order one of these? alan: in truth, there are very few 747's in u.s. air carriers. but if the 380 is operating in your market you cannot compete against it in seat cost. if you are flying from new york
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to hong kong, you will have to somehow fly it against the competition. it is a german -- tremendous airplane from the seat cost. matt: open skies, what do you think? on one hand, america and its allies are saying a middle eastern airlines are getting $40 billion in subsidies. on the other hand we just heard them say you're just gotten your infrastructure for free, you are index breaks on your fuel. alan: it is an academic debate over who has the advantage and who does not. from our point of view, we agree with boeing. this is really a government to
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government kind of debate. we just want to make sure that there is a fair playing field for all of our airline customers. it is a little bit like having one kid playing at one school and another kid playing at another school, who do you vote for? you cheer for both of them. matt: a fascinating debate. u.s. carriers saying it is not fair that the middle eastern carriers it so much money on their shareholders, which is really the government owners. that's, they think, is subsidizing the cost and allowing the carriers to provide customers with much better flying experience with much lower ticket prices. that sounds pretty good. but over the long run, they say it will kill american jobs and not be good for our industry. mark: who is airbus's biggest
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customer? matt: the emirates, as far as the 8380 -- a 380. they want to buy a few more of these giant airbus planes. i am trying to get an interview with the ceo to see if he is going anywhere and pushing these into more markets. mark: thank you. up next, the latin america room toward, not exactly the response the president was looking for. ♪
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mark: welcome back. we have the top stories but we are following. in its real, voters began casting ballots today in an election that is too close to call. one of the first to vote was prime minister benjamin netanyahu. pulls indicate that his party is trailing the sinus party of his opponent, but both are well short of the majority. they will have to form a coalition government. if he is reelected, he will not allow the establishment of a palestinian state. in crimea, a celebration of the one-year anniversary of the vote breaking
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away from ukraine and joining with russia. vladimir putin is sending troops to neutralize ukrainian forces. car sales rose at the fastest rate in 11 months. lead by volkswagen and bmw, all of them posted gains. spain's government offered incentive to trading old vehicles for scrap. the u.s. federal reserve begins its two date monetary policy meeting today. the policymakers appear increasingly congress it of the negative impact of a strong dollar on the u.s. economy. carl when is a strong dollar good for the u.s. economy, and is it good news in the present environment?
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carl: i think it is the opposite case. when you are trying to quell inflation pressures, you want to drive down the price of imported goods. that is not the case right now because the u.s. central find is one of the few central banks on track to tighten policy this year. what we are seeing is this dramatic tightening in the dollar. i think the q4 gdp number gave us a little with of what is to come this year when we saw asked for growth decelerating, and import growth dramatic week accelerating. -- dramatically accelerating. that brings us to the bigger problem here. a lot will save is the export sector that really cares, but first of all we should care because the export sector was a significant driver in the early stages of the economic cycle but more importantly investing
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industry is competing against imported goods. as import prices fall, that hurts producers who are not even trying to stall and external market -- cell and external markets -- sell in external markets. the fed was very sensitive to be clear that they were not manipulating the currency. nonetheless, taking the interest rates to zero and promising that for a long time, and an increasing the side of the balance sheet, they effectively caused a dollar devaluation. it fell to a three decade low and so that is instructive in the current environment for the ecb, where we have the same concerns that quantitative easing -- you cannot force banks to lend, and it may not help europe.
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it may be even more helpful in europe because they are that much more dependent on the exports. mark: what happens in the past when the dollar was unduly strong? carl: you see import prices fall precipitously, which we are seeing right now, and then you see the knock on effect into the domestic economy, for instance look at the auto sector. ford and gm are competing with a significantly reduced cost of a toyota or volkswagen. mark: is this going to have any impact in the fed policy in the immediate? carl: they will remove patience on the statement and indicate rate hikes are coming as early as june, but this will have an impact of the longer run because we see new orders in the national ism survey. down dress hitting the u.s. economy. it is not immediately apparent
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but you're starting to see hints of it. in the long run this is going to cause janet yellen to be very cautious in raising interest rate and not fly in the face of everyone else who is cutting with the end result being a dramatic appreciation in the dollar, even more so than we have already seen. mark: thank you. tomorrow stay with bloomberg television and we will have live coverage of the fed's. live on bbg television and streaming on your phone, tablet, and at bloomberg.com, now on apple tv and amazon fire tv.tv. street smart' alix steels joins me now. what did they say about commodities? alix: china was the growth driver for all commodities for the past 10 years. 15 years even. and now they are slowing this being the slowest growth since
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1997. for example, the hardest hit raw materials are going to be the bulk commodities like whole, iron ore, steel. they have very significant exposure to china's manufacturing sector and housing. they are trying to build their internal economy rather than rely on exports. as demand shifts to companies in india you will have a consistent demand base that will not be so the reliance on one country and the growth they're. -- so reliant on one country and the growth there. energy aspects coming out and saying that they are expecting a pretty significant downside to the correction.
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first off, you have refinery maintenance picking up. refiners are shutting down and are going to be using less crude. china was also buying a lot of loyal to build up reserves, and they are taking a break from that. on the flip side, you see supply enough, especially on iraq which we had not seen in a while. "street smart" at the top of the hour,, what is coming up? alix: we will be talking about the strategy at pimco. mark: thank you. stay with us scarlet fu will have him check of the market movers -- will have a check of
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scarlet: it is now t -23 hours until the som the statement on monetary policy tomorrow. ahead of that to the dow is lower, the euro enjoying a rev out of strength against the dollar, and oil extending its decline. technology is the best performer today lifting the guest actor the only game among the three major best much -- benchmarks. kevin tell us why he were bullish on technology when we just had intel, out and cut it was quarter sales forecast because of a stronger dollar and the pc refresh cycle has ended. kevin: the stronger dollar is an issue, but it is a passing one. when you look at the investment
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industry, it is still rising. we are in a midcycle as far as an economic cycle is concerned. with the dead starting to raise interest rates, we think the tech can perform reasonably well. scarlet: tech trading at 19 times reported earnings. great down where you see attractive prospects. kevin: it is all of the above. our interest is owning the sector overall, but when you look at older technology, you were finally finding that some of those names are very attractive, when you consider the fact that they do not have a lot of debt.
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sometimes they have cash on the balance sheet. when you look at the overall value of a company, equity market cap minus whatever caches on the balance sheet, you find some pretty good value there. do not forget about that cash. older tech is the better value. scarlet: especially when you consider how much money the life of my -- the likes of microsoft has. kevin: when you cited the multiple before, if you stripped out that cash you would find the multiple is significantly less. tidjanescarlet: good point. we know that health care companies are using their cash and making bids for other companies. there has been a lot of m&a. is that the reason you like health care? kevin: that is part of it. the other part is when you look
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at the macro data there has been a little bit of shakiness the last few months. there is some good economic growth for health care as a sector. we like the balance sheet there's not a lot of leverage there. in tech health care, as you go into them in a tightening cycle those investments are not particularly affected historically by increases in short-term interest rates. scarlet: liking tech and health care. thank you for joining us today. "street smart" is next. ♪
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>> welcome to the most important hour of the session. a 60 minutes left until the closing bell. this is "street smart." investors counting down to a high-stakes fed decision. some are saying it could be 1937 all over again. we have stocks slipping, yields falling, oil having near a six year low. "street smart" begins now. ♪ alix: global investors watching
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