john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. and with all due -- lindsey: whoa, yankee boy. i'm lindsey graham from south carolina. and with all due respect to my south carolina friends, get your butt to new hampshire, i need your help. ♪ mark: a granite state greeting and top of the evening to you from manchester, new hampshire. on the show tonight, budget cuts. jeb bush's struts. and lindsey graham's guts. but first, it is tuesday, it is election day in israel. we will not know for a while if prime minister benjamin “goes by b.b.” netanyahu will retain his title.

the exit polls suggest the race between netanyahu and main challenger isaac herzog is as close as a shank bone is to the haroset on a passover seder plate. oy vey. netanyahu is declaring victory his pollster says he will win, but it is going to be close. if he does retain prime minister, what are the implications? and if he is kicked off the job, what are the implications? john: i want to know what a haroset is. if he ends up winning this race he has done it in an ugly way. the last couple of days, he has gone very far. he has now said he is not in a favor of a palestinian state. that is out of line with multiple generations of u.s. administrations on what the solution should be. so the relationship has been bad. it is going to be very rocky. if he does not, everything will be different. mark: he does not retain the job, you're going to see an attempt by john kerry to reignite the peace process and you will see a chance for the

israeli people to have a conversation. they are expressing confidence. i would not put it past netanyahu to be illustrate -- blustery. forming a coalition is going to involve some bluster, and that is what they are doing. john: back in 2009 he came in second and he was still able to put a coalition together. if herzog ends up prime minister, it will really change the whole atmosphere around the iran talks as well, because that overhang is driven by the hard-line rhetoric of netanyahu. mark: i was surprised to hear from a netanyahu adviser who cast a netanyahu victory as a defeat for barack obama. that is a window into the mindset. john: i am saddened by it. it is a horrible place for

american-israeli relations to be. bb could be emboldened by this and that will be bad for relations. for the first time, john boehner joins republicans in calling for hillary clinton turning over a private e-mail server to a third party for review. at a press conference this morning, he stops short of saying they would subpoena clinton, but he says an independent review is the the fairest way to trust hillary clinton. the state department did not sign a form certifying she had handed over all her government records since leaving office. i want to come back to john boehner. what do you think his strategy is? mark: i think he things what hillary clinton did is highly suspicious. i think he realized the house has leverage to try to get her to hand over this to

republicans. and i think he realizes the more they can pin her down, the better it is for his presidential candidacy. john: i believe those things are true, but there is a subclause to your point b. the council main -- house mayhap not have enough leverage. he has to play this from a political level. mark: the state department took a week to answer the question did hillary's on the form? they did not say that she did not sign it. they said there is no indication she did. we do not really know, but it is an interesting question. is the state farm acting in the interest of the clinton campaign or the public interest? a lot of people suspect they're trying to protect the secretary. john: the big take away for me is between john boehner, this

story is not going away. her press conference last week, if it was supposed to shut this thing down, it has not done that. mark: a lot of and unanswered questions. there are four states that matter in presidential politics. iowa, new hampshire nevada, and south carolina. jeb bush completed his pre-campaign to work of those states. he spoke to a crowd in greenville, where he stepped up his criticism of president obama and fine tuned some familiar themes. >> every chance he has had to validate is mandate, it is not that i'm going to be the most hard-line president in american history, it is that there are no blue states, no red states. he has invalidated that every chance he has had. i am not going to change my views because people covering the story think it is unpopular.

that is what is wrong with american politics. people want to have people speak their minds, say what they believe. have a dialogue, and interaction. interact with the breast -- press. mark: is jeb bush -- how is that going? john: i think we agree that he has had a pretty good run. the thing that is most interesting to me, the idea of a republican candidate trashing president obama, hardly big news. but it is a very common argument, that president obama would be a bipartisan figure, and he has not done this. it is interesting that jeb bush is running the same way that obama, bush, and clinton ran. none of them were able to make good on that promise. mark: one of the strengths we

saw last week in new hampshire is he does not overreach in his rhetoric beyond what he feels. what he is saying about president obama is not a consultant's view, it is what he thinks. i think it is one of his strengths that voters can find touch with. john: the only part is where that is not true is where he he adds a little twist, sort of adopts a far right rhetoric. i do not think he thinks that. that is what seems to me fake red meat. i think he thinks barack obama has been about president, no doubt. but there is a little rick santorum in there. it feels a little off key to me from where he actually is. mark: the reason you might be wrong is because he is so conservative on the free market

and so dismissive of president obama's view of what the market should be on health care and environment, a range of issues. he has had a good run. the question now is, what does he do now? john: we have to move on. i like big budgets and i cannot line. the gop wants to make policy to make medicaid a voucher system. food stamps and tell grants on notice. all that stuff, the gop budget stuff, how dangerous is it to the field of potential republican president candidates? mark: it is hugely dangerous. mitt romney embraced the ryan budget and it hurt him. democrats are good about saying they want to change medicaid student loans. i think the republicans have no choice but to go down that path. it is not going to pass in the senate. we could not get a presidential candidate to take a position in this.

in 2000, what did george bush say when house republicans were cutting programs? they are going to balance the budget. no republican is going to say that. eventually, people are going to have to take positions that will prevent. john: we are talking about this because the ryan budget was such an albatross around it romney's neck. i do not think this is as toxic as the ryan budget. but i think that turning medicaid into privatized grant that in and of itself as toxic. it has bad connotations. mark: republicans are doing what they believe, and i think that great. but they are going to have to prove they can talk about it and defend it in a way they have not been able to do in modern politics. aaron schock from illinois target of an investigative unit, announced he is quitting congress after reports surfaced

about how he spent campaign contributions. it was not just the downton abbey style. sloppy expense records landed him under the microscope of the office of congressional ethics. they opened an investigation into him last month. when we heard the nurse -- news we were surprised. john: goes off into the sunset very well-dressed. mark: when we come back, lindsey graham will make some jokes. ♪

mark: our guest tonight is more sober than most at the 5:00 p.m. hour. he was very sober after our st. patrick's day irish breakfast, in nashville this morning, where we talked about the art of political stand up. mark: describe the comedy stylings of lindsey graham.

lindsey: sheckie greene. mark: who are your favorite comedians? lindsey: richard pryor. mark: do you like louis ck? lindsey: yes. jonathan winters, you could get -- give him a spoon and he could do 20 minutes with a spoon. robin williams there are those who can just go for hours. jerry seinfeld can do stand up without being dirty. john: how many people do you think have had a drink? lindsey: the more you drink your, the more this will make sense. john: getting back to richard

pryor, if this were an evening event, would you be more tempted to loosen up? lindsey: i have a lot of material nobody knows about. that is good. when you have one too many, never mind. john: senator mccain has been giving you advice? lindsey: he is a good friend. he certainly is. john: what advice has he given you about comedy? lindsey: he tells the same jokes over and over again. it is the delivery. he told me to come here and stake new hampshire. it is a battleground for me. i think i will do well. john: i like to just do the punchline. lindsey: it would just be me and

you at that dinner. remember that? the guerrilla and handcuffs? mark: i do not know that one. lindsey: i cannot tell any jokes are. john: around 2007, you and senator mccain used to enjoy watching the i feel pretty video. have you seen anything that funny? lindsey: that was pretty funny. here is a little known factoid. john edwards and i were born in the same town. south carolina. john: in the same room? lindsey: i don't think so, but very few people know that.

mark: we think your best joke today was about the clintons. why are the clintons a resource of humor? break it down for us. lindsey: number one, they can take a joke. it is not funny overtime if you cannot take it. and they can take it and give it. my god they have had a thousand episodes skirting political death. when his back is up against the wall, that is when he is most dangerous. we will see how hillary goes. bill clinton is a guy that has survived. i think people look at him and say he is smart, confident, and that is a testament to his not giving up. he is tough. people on our side think, bring her on. she is very tough. these are folks that survived a

lot. john: if prime minister netanyahu is not reelected, what are the implications for the united states? lindsey: i do not think it will matter that much on the iranian nuclear negotiations but a lot in terms of our going forward. it would be a rejection of his main theme that israel is in a state of national threat. the whole election is around national security versus domestic concern. if he lost, it would be evidence of people in israel not as worried about the iranian nuclear threat. john: do you think there is a chance he loses, that some of the blame will be blank -- wait on him coming to congress? lindsey: i do not know what it means. john: you mentioned hillary clinton being tough. this e-mail controversy, do you think she is lying? lindsey: i am not going to say

she is lying. i am saying there is a contingent that is probably not good for. i do not know how she denies somebody a chance to look at the private server. today, there are not many people in the political system that the public would trust. i think she would have a hard time maintaining the approach she is taking that this private server cannot be looked at by an independent group. mark: over the weekend, it has been said the party needs to move on from old names. where do you come down on the? do you think the party should could continue looking at a third bush? lindsey: the country will evaluate jeb bush on being jeb bush. we do not like dynasties, but we like individuals. if there is anything consistent about america, she will give you

a chance to make the case as to who you are and let you fail and come back. like bill clinton. the idea of jeb bush being kind of shouted -- shadowed by his brother, here is what i think about america. they are going to give you a chance to make the case about who you are. when you are talking about somebody based on your name, i do not think you quite understand who we are as a party or country. he is going to have to make the case and prove to people he is his own guy. here is the question for scott and george -- what we have to offer. most elections are about the polls. when you think about the last 40 years, reagan's antidote -- antidote to carter clinton to

bush, what is the antidote to obama? a technical savvy guy? maybe so, maybe not. mark: could be. lindsey: how about a guy who can do but some things? a guy who has a record of being willing to tell his party something they do not want to hear. how about a guy who understands the world for what it is rather than what he would like it to be? a guy who has been more right than wrong about radical islam. the next president of the united states is going to be seen as a guy ready to serve on day one and a person who can bring us together. mark: a quick final comedy question. john stuart and stephen colbert made fun of you a lot. who did you prefer? lindsey: i think jon was more

biting and hit home more often. colbert is from charleston. he maybe could not quite go to the next level. i want to to be on jon's show before he left. he is tough on everybody, not just republicans. somebody has to fill that space in american politics. mark: thank you, senator lindsey graham. mark: we will be back after this. ♪

mark: comedy central, if you're looking for a new host of the daily show, maybe give these folks a chance. who are your actual favorite comedians? >> you got me in a tough one there. mark: louis ck? >> i don't know who that is.

alan sherman? >> i was going to tell you the prime minister of india. >> i do not mean to ignore governor pataki in new hampshire. he has others that are doing that already. >> in my 12 years of governor i issued one pardon. mark: four lenny bruce? >> i am tough on crime, but he was dead. >> me being here today has made to the front runner. any democrats here? raise your hand. you don't have to email me, just raise your hand. you had better be glad scott walker is not here, he would be at you up. me and hillary, and a contest for president.

the first thing i would say to her is let's talk about e-mail. i did not think bill and i had anything in common. but i found one thing. neither one of us e-mailed hillary. if you can believe that. [laughter] [applause] speaking of snakes, saint patrick -- [laughter] >> i told my staff, whatever you do do not let me follow senator graham, because he is funny. my staff is so incompetent. [laughter] but what can you expect, they worked on the romney campaign. [laughter] i know governor christie will be back in new hampshire, and he can get you a really good deal on an atlantic city casino if

you would like one of them. the only problem would be trying to get it across the george washington bridge. i do not expect to get a few nightclub gigs as a result of what i did this morning. i'm going to wait and see if i get contacted. but i am not holding my breath. john: up next, and irish dancer. ♪

john: on april 7 rand paul plans to announce he is running for president, but we just did that for him now. mark: we leave you with some more standup -- irish dance. ♪

pimm: hello, i'm pimm fox and this is what i'm taking stock of this st. patrick's day. the israeli election results are too close to call. the future of benjamin netanyahu will be decided by the voters. exit polls indicate a battle with isaac herzog. a win by the unity party may not create a dramatic change in u.s. israel relations. >> herzog will be not that far off from where netanyahu is an will be just as michael of the iranian track that the u.s. is on right now. pimm: u.s. airlines such as delta are pushing for what they call fair skies.