manus: oil heads back to a bear market, extending losses for a 70 day. we bring you the latest as wti approaches $42 a barrel. mark: is janet yellen about to lose patience? we look ahead to the fomc meeting and what the language could mean for a rate hike in the united's aides. anna: we're are live in westminster this morning as thethe u.k. chancellor readies his budget did he has promised no gimmicks and no giveaways. with just 50 days to go until the general election, we will ask just how political he will be.

caroline: benjamin netanyahu claims victory in national elections. we are live in tel aviv with the latest. manus: today marks the first anniversary of russia's annexation of crimea. we will bring you exclusive coverage from the war-torn region. mark: welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. i am caroline hyde. manus: and i am manus cranny. mark: will prime minister alexis tsipras exit the euro? we bring you the latest as greece runs out of cash and time. caroline: we're getting some news from into text.

full-year sales, 18.1 billion euros. that is an increase of some 8% on the previous year. they are leading analyst expectations when it comes to give it to -- to ebitda. they also proposed a dividend. they said store sales rose 30%. the issue here is what is it when you factor in foreign currency changes? this is a country whose number three market was russia. the russian ruble has lost about 30% since june and they have about 400 shores -- 400 stores in russia. that is going to be impacting them. now we are going to see a warmer brees going towards in the tax --+++

inditex. china is there second-biggest market. when you look at the u.s. and the u.k., you bring that home and it is bad for the euro. mark: manus said, i have a fact that will blow you away. after you said that to me, i went in search. manus: 60% of inditex is privately owned. the dividend that you mentioned came in at $.52 a share. this is what is sweet about inditex. because it is six he owned, they tend not to do share buybacks. and they paid a special dividend every year since 2003. 25% of the payout. mark: i have been looking at the valuation of inditex. shares hit a record high on monday pit the stock 600 retail

index is up by 18% in the last 12 months. only three retailers have outperformed in that time. on a valuation basis, it is trading at 36.8 times earnings right now. that is the highest since 2002. the average over that time is 24 times. analysts have a 12-month price target of 27 euros. is it expensive? manus: that is over 100 times on the -- nearly -- let's turn our attention to the oil market. west texas intermediate is falling for a second day and headed back as market prices plunged almost $42 in trading overnight. that is the lowest price in six years as stockpiles worsen. global supply is on traders'

minds. all of this coming ahead of the fomc meeting. mark: chancellor george osborne will set out the budget for the last time in parliament. he has promised no gimmicks or giveaways, but lower oil prices could mean he has some money to play with. anna edwards joins us from westminster. good morning. which policy areas are in focus? anna: good morning to you, mark manus, caroline. very timely that you are talking about the oil price this morning. the weaker oil price will weave its way through a lot of what we hear from george osborne. i have a list as long as my arm of the policy areas. let's start with oil. we have seen a reduction in investment coming through in that sector. that is something that george osborne has already said he

wants to turn around. expect some relief and policies to encourage investment in that part of the u.k. help for low earners could also be on the table. we already know that the coalition government wants to increase the minimum wage. could we see an increase in personal allowance? that is the amount of money people are allowed to earn without paying income tax. attacks on the northern powerhouse. george osborne likes to talk about how we need to take the long-term economic plan and spread the benefits across the country. expect various motorways to get a name check. all of that tends to go down very well with the tory party faithful. other areas of focus -- multinational taxation, business rates. no paper tax returns. all of that could be in the mix as well. mark: the budget traditionally is about the economy and economics but with the election

just a month or two away, 50 days is it more of a political budget? anna: you cannot ignore the politics at all. this is still an incredibly close race. a very timely reminder of just how close the political race is as we head towards may 7 and the general election. we have two polls that show conflicting indications about who would come out victorious. one putting labor ahead and one putting the tories ahead. bear in mind what peter kells was saying over the weekend. he said that the number one priority for voters in his polling is help for the lower paid. he says the number one problem that the conservatives face is an image problem. they are seen as the party of the wealthy. all of that could be very important as we see george osborne take the stand later. mark: he has promised no

gimmicks, no giveaways. how much extra does osborne have compared to the autumn statement at the end of last year? anna: he said this is going to be fiscally neutral no giveaways. but he could have a gift from the office of budget responsibility to work with. they could between king their gdp growth forecast, taking those up around 20% over the next two years. -- around .2% over the next two years. they could be substantially bringing down there inflation forecast. all of that could mean that budget deficit forecasts are able to between by the obr. that could give him more room to play with. maybe 500 pounds in terms of less borrowing required over the coming years in the next parliament. that could be the average of 42 bloomberg economics. we will be here all morning,

bringing you a preview and the results of that budget. mark: we will see you later. thanks a lot. and edwards from westminster today. it is lunch time as we launch bloomberg politics, u.k. election 2015. it is a special daily program looking at the key issues into the run-up to the u.k. election and how they might affect the election. that starts at 11:00 a.m. london time here on bloomberg television. manus: as well as the budget we are going to be watching news from the federal reserve following the fomc's two-day policy meeting. we will bring you janet yellen's news conference live and in full at 6:00 p.m. anna: -- caroline: from one election to another. benjamin netanyahu has won a convincing victory to keep his job as prime minister. let's go to tel aviv, where

elliott gotkine joins us now. netanyahu seems to have turned things around at the last minute. elliott: he does, though some would question the cost entailed in doing so. in the last 24 hours, not only did he reneg on a previous subscription to the idea of a two state solution with the palestinians he said that as long as he is prime minister, there will be no palestinian state. he also went on his facebook page and said you must get out to vote because there is a really high turnout of arab voters who have been invited to polling stations by left wing parties. some people accuse him of racism . at best, it was clearly playing a little bit of politics. 99% of the ballots counted, benjamin netanyahu's party is

the biggest with 30 seats. the opposition, 24 seats. the united arab list, 13 seats. a real turnaround from when i went to bed at around 1:00 this morning local time. caroline: a long night for you. six seats ahead. what happens now? it is all about the forming of the coalition. elliott: it is always about the forming of the coalition. what happens now is we should get official or unofficial results from parliament on thursday. they will then have a roundabout by march 25. they will present the official results to the president. he will ask all of the party leaders who they think should be prime minister. he will then go to that person and ask them to try to form a governing coalition. given the bruising campaign that we have had these past few weeks, it is not impossible to conceive that the president

might try to work out some way of getting a government of national unity. but benjamin netanyahu deals -- feels that he has the numbers to form a government. the kingmaker here is the former communications minister who managed to slash mobile phone prices by 90% of it he was once an ally of netanyahu but left his party because he was disgruntled with economic policy. if he decides to join netanyahu that would be game over for the opposition. caroline: elliott gotkine in tel aviv. thank you very much indeed. manus: one year after russia's annexation of crimea the economy the economic conflict in eastern ukraine is devastating. it has ravaged a system of

commerce that has emerged complicated and unreliable. ryan spoke with local officials about the russians and how ukraine would address their economic woes. brian: ryan: the lines are getting longer at this soup kitchen. these people are not homeless. ordinary folks need this food to survive. tens of thousands of people now depend on handouts. olga runs this place. she sees the elderly families, even minors who are not hitting fed -- getting fed. >> people are not living could they are just surviving. people are close to salvation. ryan: even a bowl of soup is

becoming a luxury. prices are rising faster than anywhere else in the world aside from venezuela. this applies him from one place and one place of -- alone. >> only from russia. from the ukraine, we get nothing. ryan: russia is not only sending food. they are's -- they are showing up in person and making a spectacle of it. alongside a convoy of humanitarian aid russia says they are supporters of the russian president. tv broadcasters broadcast the message and good deeds across eastern ukraine. meanwhile, this official tells me america is sending military advisers to the other side. >> humanitarian aid is humanitarian aid. food is food. this is not politics. i think you should not mix them together. ryan: we are at a mine that lost

dozens of its men in a tragic accident just days before could tagging along as they unload 50-kilo bags of powder and sugar. this is the heart to mines campaign. in all the years i have been watching russia, this is one of the most vivid example of soft power i have seen yet. the local official complains ukraine is blocking the flow of vital goods to the separatists. for the record, ukraine says their offers of aid were rejected. with all the weapons and troops that kiev says russia is providing russia's soft power is the academy of hypocrisy. -- epitome of hypocrisy. mark: the u.s. justice department could drop settlements. u.s. prosecutors are

investigating whether wrongdoing in currency trading means banks violated old deals. the eurogroup head raised the possibility of using capital controls to help prevent grease leaving the euro. -- greece leaving the euro. the european parliament is debating measures to boost liquidity as the country braces for debt payments on friday. an economic slowdown weight on demand in china. prices fell in 66 of the 70 cities tracked by the government. the decline came despite the removal -- the reduced borrowing costs. envoys say they have narrowed their technical dispute. this may not be enough to forge a packed -- a pact this week.

negotiators have given themselves until march 31 to find a framework agreement. caroline: join the conversation with us on twitter. let us know what you think of the show, the story, the u.k. budget that we are focusing on today. just about to put out a tweet about facebook unveiling those plans to use messenger to spend money. manus: it is budget day in the u.k. what can we expect from george osborne? our next guest says higher growth and a lower deficit. that is after the break. ♪

mark: welcome back. george osborne presents the annual budget later today. what can we expect? our next guest says it is all about growth figures. let's bring in derek. is there any scope for movement in sterling given that the obr is likely to tweak the growth figures and the deficit forecasts should be slightly better than the prebudget estimate?

>> i think it is probably a more interesting day for us individually rather than the global markets. i think a lot of what is going to happen has already been put into the market. i do not think there will be any huge surprises. from a broader perspective, it is good news in terms of 2.4% growth projections from december likely to be raised. the deficit profile is likely to be a bit better. and there is some leeway for reducing the degree of fiscal austerity in the next parliament. i think that is the key message from the tories. they want to try to dampen the big arguments from the opposition in regard to the scale of austerity that is coming, the worst since the 1930's. that would be the best position for them going into the election. today is all of that setting up the framework for the election in may. caroline: anything you are

expecting to be hauled out of the bag which will make investors reassess their view? >> there is some leeway for the tax allowance being raised -- caroline: 11,000 pounds. >> yes. some easing from the energy sector, some tax cuts. there will be some positive news for a growth projection but they will try to make sure there is no big surprise that is going to boost the popularity of the tories going into the election. manus: let's talk about jeremy yellen -- janet yellen. i suppose we have the debate, inflation is down for the ninth day, bond yields are lower, the dollar is a mighty strong currency.

where are we in the great dollar debate? >> today is a perfect day for a change in the communication. yellen can drop the word "pati ence" and she has plenty of other tools to signal to the markets that the rates will come down in june. perhaps not next year, but certainly this year. then she has the conference at which she can reinforce the points that you just made, all of which are pretty much deflationary. in that context, i think the message today will be we have changed the guidance because we did not want to be in a situation with a time commitment, but we have flexibility. currently, it is a situation where perhaps we do not have to go into -- in june. >> highest since 2009. does the view that the strength

of the dollar could not postpone the timing of the rate hike, but slow down the pace of the rate increases, is that right? how does the dollar play into it in the next 6 to 9 months? >> it is becoming more and more important. i think it is the fastest move over an eight or nine-month period since 1981. it is the speed of the move that is going to be of concern for the fed. i have charted that with the annual change of import prices in the united states, excluding energy. it is looking like it will go to something like -6.5%. it is going to be this eight deflationary impetus. if the dollar continues to go as it is, that changes the complete profile of rates. first, we have to remind ourselves that the market is priced much below what the fed

are telling us they need to do. we are at full employment in the united states. the range is 5.2%-five .5% from the december projections. -- 5.2%-5.5% from the december projections. if the market moves the way it has been, i do not see any reason to change that dramatically. they are still going to have to go. yes, perhaps they can go september or december. then the markets would consider every second meeting. that certainly would help take some of the momentum out of the dollar. caroline: give us a sense of where you are calling other currencies affected by this. the euro, are we headed for parity? people thinking we could see a push back in the euro. >> the real story is not what the u.s. is doing, it is what is happening outside the united

states. when the euro was at 1.20, we had a 1.05 projection for the end of the year and we were below the consensus. now that projection, certainly some level below parity is likely. there is going to be no change in this obvious divergence. perhaps the speed of the move changes and we do get a correction at some point. perhaps today brings about a momentum reversal for a short time. the big story is unchanged. mark: thanks for joining us today. global head of global market research at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. caroline: live pictures outside the ecb headquarters in frank for. police are guarding the annual -- the area because anti-capitalist and anti-austerity protesters attempted to block access to the

building later today. you can see them wheeling in now. manus: still to come, we take a look at george osborne's last budget before britain goes to collections on may 7. straight after this short break. ♪

manus: you are watching "countdown." 6:30, london time. let's take a look at how do for an exchange market is looking. this is the dollar. virtually unchanged since yesterday, but a little bit of momentum coming lower in the dollar. i love the comment overnight from mr. radel you -- ray dalio who runs bridgwater. the fed runs the risk of moving too fast and collapse the market.

that is the view from one of the biggest hedge funds in the world in terms of the dollar. 10-year yields are at a two-we located bloomberg survey, 89% say the federal reserve will drop the word "patient." 45% say a hike in june and 47% say a hike in september. the last comment from mr. hal penny is that we are near full employment. that is going to tie the hands of the federal reserve. keep an eye on the dollar. with that in mind, the dollar is just nibbling up by about .1%. that has switched around through the end of the asian session. you should see the euro-dollar drop a little bit lower. one great comment that has come through is the selling of the euro hitting a climax. mizuho saying it has gone too far, too fast.

therefore, you can expect a rebound in the euro-dollar according to mizuho. we have hit the buffers in terms of selling. not according to our last guest, who says we could see this go lower. mizuho saying you could see it bounce to 120. keep an eye on sterling as well. we will get a job numbers today. 1.47. back to you, caroline. caroline: let's get to the top story this hour. the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, ray dalio, is sending a warning to investors. he says if the fed raises rates to quickly the collapse of 1937 could be the result. the stock market slumped by more than 50%. emirates president tim clark

contested that the airline gets subsidies from the uae government. he reiterated that gulf carriers are playing fair. >> it is important that the united states government understands that we are here in a fair market and we are doing the right thing by consumers. caroline: starbucks' race together initiative is off to a rocky start. they are encouraging baristas to talk to customers about race in the united states and that generated a slew of criticism on twitter. starbucks said the company knew it would not be easy, what felt it was worth the discomfort. you can find more on that story at bloomberg.com along with many others. mark: george osborne will today unveil his last budget before britain goes to the polls on may 7. jamie murray looks at what to

expect. jamie: george osborne's brand is cutting public spending. if he suddenly backtracks before the election, it will do the damage. the big news is the auto statement -- autumn statement has been the collapse in the price of oil. it will boost real incomes and provide a lift to the recovery. the benefits from lower inflation could add up to as much as 4 billion pounds. if these savings materialize the temptation will be strong to do some pre-election giveaway. you hear lots of things in the run-up to the budget. the truth is they may not know themselves until later on in the process. everything has to be agreed by the court, which is the prime

minister, deputy prime minister chief secretary to the treasury and the chancellor. some wildcard policies could be a bit more plans for nhs spending. one thing that is likely to appear is some sort of relief for the extraction industries. the price of oil has fallen so far that these companies are really struggling. the trouble is we are seemingly running out of slack in the u.k. economy. unemployment has fallen very fast in recent years. the obr said there is only maybe .5% spare capacity remaining it will the economy pick up? if it does, by how much? mark: it is budget day in the u.k. chancellor osborne preparing to give his final budget before the election. anna edwards is in westminster. over to you.

anna: thanks very much. what do businesses want to hear from the chancellor when he delivers that budget? i am joined by the chief economist at the ioc. he joins us outside parliament. very good to see you. what is your expectation of what we're going to hear today from the chancellor. a short budget, he says. >> of course, we are in election mode. he has got to get something through for his coalition. we are looking at how they will position themselves in the coming general election. not that much he can do. anna: that could be a feature of the budget that we hear things that the coalition planned and the conservative party would plan if they were to be in full or control -- fuller control. >> that is exactly right. one of the things the coalition has agreed upon is the raising

of the rate bands. probably another move towards that really helps the low-paid. i think people are really keen on that. and it sends a good message. if you are in work you are going to be helped by the government. he is also going to say some of the things he wants to do if he were to be chancellor after the general election. way back when, the thing that first put conservatives on their head in the polls six or seven years ago, he may revisit that. anna: what do the businesses that the institute of directors talk to want to hear from the chancellor today? >> i think there are two things. one of them is what we call a triple lock. that is on the high rate of taxation. we do not want to see more for the taxpayers. this was never meant to be something that people paid.

it was meant to be something only the well-off were subject to. push that up and make sure it rises by at least inflation or earnings. just like we promised the pensioners, let's promised the people they will not be paying more tax in the future. the other thing we're looking at is business rates. business rates are big, fixed costs at a lot of small and medium-sized businesses. we are thinking about how we could make that more efficient to allow businesses to compete against people who are online. online is not paying that sort of tax. it is making sure that the tax regime reflects what is going on in the marketplace. anna: this is very close to the election, just 50 days to go. do you think there are votes in doing what business wants to hear or is it about taking the wind out of labor's sales -- sails? >> i think the chancellor would

argue that raising the nil rate band does address located in general, he is a very political chancellor and we are in a very political time. it would be naïve to think we would not see a political budget. at the same time we probably will have a bit of with over -- a bit of wiggle room. he might have as much as 5 billion pounds to play with. i do not think he will play with it now. he is focused on getting the deficit down. they have done a lot of work. there is still a lot of work to do. anna: he said before he wants to have a budget surplus of 33 billion pounds by the end of the next parliament if he is chancellor. does that open the door for the opr to talk about spending on public services being down to levels we have not seen since the 1930's. studies have been critical about

the cutting in spending that that was going to entail. do you think he is going to be stepping away from those commitments to a budget surplus at the end of the next parliament? labour have had a field day with that kind of statistic. >> there are a lot of ways you can spin the statistics. in general, two things to keep in mind. number one is that the actual amount of tax we have raised over the last 30 or 40 years and what we are adjusting to is living within the means in the longer term. that is the challenge for the u.k. and europe overall pick we spend an enormous amount of money on interest and we do not want to be spending that in the future. if we do not have a budget surplus, we are never going to pay down that debt. that has to be part of a long-term plan. if you are not paying down the deficit or the debt after seven years of economic expansion, when will you do it? anna: i wonder if we will hear those words from the chancellor. you mentioned is this rates.

we heard a little bit this week about business rates. we might hear some more. is there logic and having a tax based around policy? >> that is one of the things that they need to be completely rational about. at the same time what we have been talking about is, how do you make that fair? how do you make it so it does not become an impediment? somebody could be startled by a significant revaluation and all of a sudden, you owe several hundred more pounds per month, which could be critical. anna: thank you for joining us in the cold this morning. james is chief economist at -- back to you guys in the studio. mark: anna is in westminster.

we will bring you the budget info at like cap -- at lunchtime. we will launch our new show which is a special daily program looking at the key issues in the run-up to the election and how they might affect business markets, and the economy. that starts at 11:00 a.m. london time on bloomberg television. do not miss it. manus: guy johnson and anna edwards join all three of us today, caroline hyde the rose between two thorns. who am i to protest that particular fact of the day? ♪ caroline: up next, a historic move for videogame giant nintendo. why investors are celebrating after the break. ♪

manus: these are the top stories on bloomberg this hour. it is the end of the road for internet explorer. microsoft says it is replacing the web browser for most customers in the next version of its windows operating system. the company plans to roll out windows 10 in 190 countries this summer. nintendo is set to rise in tokyo trading after announcing plans

to develop games for snark -- for smartphones. they will link up with japanese mobile giant dena to create games and membership services. the stock had plunged about 80% since 2007, the year apple's iphone made its debut. the u.k. boosted annual paper tax returns by 2020. it is said to be announced by george osborne in his budget today. it could affect 12 million taxpayers, aimed at improving efficiency and cutting costs. mark: 50 days to go until the u.k. election. george osborne set out the budget for -- will set out the budget for the last time in this parliament. anna? anna: thanks, guys.

let's take this conversation on about what business once to see from the chancellor and talk about what entrepreneurs want to see. we are joined by the former advisor to the prime minister and the man behind tech city. good morning peter what do you think entrepreneurs want to see? >> i think entrepreneurs have had a good run from this government. they have had entrepreneurs visas, tax breaks for investments, entrepreneur release. -- reliefs. i think the 5.2 million entrepreneurs would like to see entrepreneurship at the heart of this government. the truth about this government it is not front and center in the narrative. so much about entrepreneurship is about the feel-good factor and knowing that the banks and the investors are getting behind small businesses. the chancellor has an opportunity to start things out and say this is a golden time

for entrepreneurship. mark: do we need -- anna: do we need a sister for entrepreneurship? >> i think we need a trade union. while there were more businesses started last year than any year in history, the voice of entrepreneurs is not as loud as it should be. without that voice, it is hard for ways to respond. let's think about how entrepreneurs can get together. anna: there have been many policies in this government. tax relief on investments in entrepreneurial businesses improved upon a couple of years ago. there have been policies already. what do we need to see? is it about the taxes and the money? is it about infrastructure,

trade, broadband? >> i think there are a few things. there are some exciting areas in the entrepreneurial economy, like so-called fit tech, technology disrupting the banking industry. regulation makes that hard. there are areas like that that i am sure you will see the chancellor talk about today. above that, i think bank lending is it the challenge or borrowing if you are a small business. one of the things the chancellor has done is put money into non-bank lending, like peer-t o-peer. i would love to see more action on that in today's budget it without lending, it is hard to build a business. anna: the chancellor represents a constituency not far from manchester he liked to talk about the long-term economic plan around the country, spreading the recovery.

is a real possibility in that a story for larger doors in britain? >> it is cool what he is doing in manchester. chancellor's run a chance -- a treasury full of clever people that think they know best. what he is saying is let's have power and spending in manchester. i think it is great. i was at an event that george chancellor and -- that george osborne was at and the amount that is going into manchester is really exciting. we will see technology emerging out of manchester very soon. anna: thank you very much. the cofounder of second home and former advisor to the prime minister as well. mark: thank you. anna edwards speaking.

she will be back later. we will bring you the digit in full this lunchtime as we launch bloomberg politics, the u.k. election 2015. it is a special daily program looking at the key issues in the run-up to the election and how they might affect is this markets, and the economy. it starts today at 11:00 a.m. london time here on bloomberg television. anna: coming up, we will be looking at our favorite stories on bloomberg digital output, including facebook. you can send money via the messenger app they have devised. also looking at monaco. we will speak -- we will be speaking about mark's best football pick. ♪

manus: welcome back to "countdown." time for digital pix. what is trending, what is interesting. i actually thought about gold. i saw this on bloomberg.com. the fed is set to hike rates. gold prices are at a three-month low. money managers are cutting their exposure to gold by the most in six weeks. get this -- anz said, forget about that. asia is going to be a powerhouse in gold. we are going to hit records. it may not be until after my particular working lifetime

which is 50 years away. but 2030 is when -- [laughter] caroline: all those gold bullion things you have been storing at home -- manus: absolutely. gold bars in the back garden. india and china will be a powerhouse in the short term. china has a bit of a bumpy correction into an open economy. caroline: just 7% growth. manus: $3,230. that is my digital pick. caroline: i am talking about facebook. it has been much-anticipated. everett since they pinched david from paypal, the online payments business, they are looking at integrating how you send money to your mates via facebook messenger. it is something that many other companies are allowing you to do

. snapchat allows you to do it already. this time, facebook getting in on the act. incredible that we saw western union share prices fall on the back of this pre-facebook is very much pegging itself to emerging market expansion. we are waiting for it to be unveiled. they have built it internally and it should be going live. at last, we can start sending that money that you might own. mark: and then there was one. once upon a time, there were 4 premier league teams. after arsenal were knocked out last night and monaco, one left. manchester city playing against barcelona tonight in spain. i want them all to lose. liverpool are out. arsenal are out. chelsea are out. caroline: barcelona could beat man city. mark: i do not want any of the english teams to do well. enough.

who is going to win the tournament? there you go. no english teams in the last 8. "countdown" continues in the last hour. we're back to the green in the budget. ♪

mark: oil heads back to the bear market extending it losses for the seventh day. $42 a barrel. janet yellen is about to lose patience. we look ahead to the meeting and what the language could mean for a rate hike in the united states. anna: we are alive and went to at westminster. with 50 days to go until the general election, we will ask how political he will be. caroline: benjamin netanyahu claims victory in national elect

elections. we are live in tel aviv with the latest. mark: today marks the first anniversary of russia's and it annexation of crimea. we bring you the war-torn coverage. welcome to countdown. caroline: i'm caroline hyde. mark: will the prime minister balancebow to demands? we bring you the latest as greece runs out of cash. the west texas intermediate is falling for the second day in falling back to a bear market. prices fell below $42.

global supply. the global dollar has weakened for the second day. this is coming ahead of today's meeting. chancellor george are osborne will send out the last agenda of the parliament. it means he must have some money to play with. anna edwards joins us. which policy areas are in focus today? anna: good morning. very interesting you start of the show talking about the oil price. the weaker oil price could find itself being weaved through many aspects. 12:30 p.m. is one he when he talks about the budget. oil could be an area that is

very much in focus. it has falling headcounts, followed levels of investments. the chancellor says he wants to attack that. low tax rates, investments to tax more. low earners' help could be helping as well. he is very mindful of the messages he is getting about how lower pay is the best performing issues with the electorate. we have heard from the coalition they want to increase the minimum wage. personal allowances, the amount of money people are allowed to earn before they sell paying cash. that is being talked about, whether we'll see an increase in those personal allowances. the powerhouses ofis a ph rase that means focus in northern parts of the country and spreading the benefits of the recovery around the country is something that chancellor has already said he wants to talk

more about. it is not having more strings to the bow. it is about securing a national recovery. we could see reference to multinational taxation annuities, pension. this is a coalition asset and we are 50 days away from the budget. we could see a mix of things today. things the budget as a coalition is committing to. and things the conservative party would like voters to vote into power to on may 7. mark? mark: as we get the election, just 50 days away, it is a political budget more than one of economics today? anna: yes, the budget is arguably always political but many are suggesting this could increase political significance because of how we close we are to the election. it highlights how they say they

could win the election. the labour party is ahead by two percentage points. conservatives are headed by one percentage point. i should point out that over the last few days, one of the biggest issues that plays well with the electorate is help for the lower pay. one of the biggest problems of the conservatives is an image problem. they are a party that focuses more on the wealthy. that is on the mind of george osborne as they put the finishing touches to it this morning. mark? mark: how much extra will chancellor are born after spend -- chancellor osborne have to spend? anna: he might have something like 5 billion pounds on average per year through the rest of the parliament. asked her to spend when you are comparing what he is going to be dealing with today as compared

to the autumn statement. that is a number that has been talked about. we have talked to it directly. where that is coming from we might see the opposite of budget responsibility maintain that the chancellor have to work within the u.k.. we might see them tweak that forecast to bring down in inflation. that could give him more wiggle room and a more substantial room when we hear from the chancellor later. what we should look out for is his commitment on a a surplus. the commitment to allow the obr to say this government would lead us down the path which would result in public spending day-to-day public spending being

at the same level as the 1930's. that is a forecast a conclusion that the labour party has run with politically. it might be the chancellor wants to change that slightly bearing in mind he has slightly a little more wiggle room this time around. back to you. mark: thank you, anna edwards. we will bring you the budget as we launch bloomberg politics u.k. election 2015. it is a special daily program looking to the key so the run-up of the election and how might they might affect the economy. that is at 11 a.m. london time. we will be watching for news from the federal reserve following the fomc tw-o-day meeting. we will bring you janet yellen's news conference live and that full at 2 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. caroline: the eurogroup raise

capital to prevent leaving the euro. this comes of the country braces for more than 2 billion euros in debt payment on friday. marcellus joins us now. how big is the cash problem in greece? what can they do to deal with it? >> good morning from athens. it is a very dire situation. we don't know the exact date where the cash funds will swing. the next couple of weeks will be very demanding. we have seen institutions raising their aggression against last week. 's data. we are seeing it is a crisis. the government is trying to pass a bid earlier today in order to

raise his liquidity on taxes and government sector deposits and giving them government securities. now, this bill was yesterday as a unilateral decision. the february meeting has had little made. they are running a spring in which somebody is already giving the signal. caroline: concerns about those debt repayments. mentioning capital controls -- how likely is this? >> the capital controls have the possibility -- and there is a possibility. it just might avoid -- we have to remember it should stay in

the euro. although this is something that will bring the economy further down, in my be needed. the spokesman said yesterday that was uncalled for of a statement by the dutch finance minister. i wonder, i think greece has been blackmailed by reality because they are riding that theme. the government has to understand the mandate of taking all this pre-election -- free election approaches to the european creditors, it is something that cannot be done. caroline: wonderfully put. thank you very much. mark: and was wanted convincing victory in the election. and keep his job as prime

minister. manus: he addressed supporters. c >> a great victory for the national camp. manus: let's go to tel aviv. benjamin netanyahu seem to have great debate whether he would have 25 or 2019. is he firmly in the driver seat? >> very much so. not only did he claim victory last night which many particularly opposition was premature. the opposition union was not in the. we have had unofficial results with none in every set of the ballots -- 99% of the ballots counted. the head of the union has conceded defeat. he telephoned netanyahu and

congratulated him. he said they would continue to fight for the valleys which they believe in. i don't think it is beyond any question that the winner of last night's, or yesterday's general electioneering is benjamin netanyahu. manus: what happens next? you are the president -- what is the feeling at the moment? will there be a coalition a grass coalition? how does it play out? >> there is going to be coalition, no question about it. you are talking about 120 seats in total. you need 60 want to have a governing coalition -- 60 want to have a governing coalition. netanyahu was due to meet with

one of the leaders today. a former communications minister looks to have seats. he split with netanyahu. he said they had never had personal differences or ideological differences. he wants to be in a government which will finally take care of the needs of young couples. the cost of housing in israel is the number one concern among voters. in terms of the timeline, we are getting unofficial results that they will do the full results by thursday. by march 25 of parliament will hand the official results to the president. he will then ask the party leaders who they think should be prime minister of israel. given there is many more seats on the right wing of the spectrum than the left it seems

inevitable a majority of them will say benjamin netanyahu will be his fourth term as prime minister. given he has the nod from the parties was looks like very likely indeed. manus: thank you. . mark: the u.s. justice department could revoke settlement of banks from getting interest rates from people familiar. u.s. prosecutors are investigating whether the wrongdoing of currency trading means banks violated all deals resulting in reading. china's crisis of economic slowdown way down on demand. prices fell in sisi six update cities -- 66 of the cities files. d. talks over iran's nuclear

program finals its final stages. have narrowed their technical disputes. this may not be enough to the watrt this feeds. negotiations have given them until the 31st of find a framework agreement. caroline: you were looking at live pictures out of the european ahead tank. police regarding the area because anti-capitalists and anti-austerity protesters attempted to block access to the inauguration of the building later today. looks like it is pretty fierce already. fires burning already. mark: we are all on twitter. caroline hyde is there. she is. the debate in the newsroom is this -- she is sitting between two thorns. caroline: blooming roses. manus: mark barton can speak for

himself. it is a space. mark: try getting up at 3 a.m.. i get here at 3:00. caroline: salt on the wounds. mark: it is budget day in the u.k. there will be good news. we will find out more after the break.

caroline: welcome back. the u.k. chancellor will unveil his last budget until voters go to the paleoll. we look at what to expect. ♪ >> george osborne's plan is cutting public spending. if he now suddenly backtracks before the election, it will be the damage. the good news is the collapse of the price of oil. this will traces way to the economic forecast. it will lower inflation boost income and lift recovery. the benefit of low inflation could add up to as much as maybe 4 billion pounds. if he is saving, the temptation will be giving pre-election giveaways.

you hear lots of things in the press about the budget. the truth is they may not even know themselves until very late in the process because everything has to be agreed by the coalitions, the prime minister, the deputy prime minister, the chief of the treasury in the chancellor. the wild caught our disease -- wildcard policies could be possessions. what is quite likely to appear in the budget is some kind of relief for the industries. the price of oil has fallen so fast that they are really struggling. it is seemingly running out of flack in the u.k. economy. has fallen very far. it only maybe half a percentage point remaining. will it pick up? david does come out much?

mark: let's bring in james. good morning. when it comes to you, it is about borrowing in the financing in the debt. let's cut to the chase. when it comes to the public finances and the ambitions to reduce the deficit of 90 billion pounds or so to a surplus within three or four years, who has the most credible plan, believable plan? >> and that is difficult one. it is a question -- there is agreement on where we are going in terms of u.k. public finances. how quickly you can get there. it may not be three years. the question really is that makes between spending cuts and potentially revenue or tax increases. i think that is a difference. the speed at which we get there. there is a lot to be worked out the details, but the direction of changes to clear.

caroline: we saw the u.k. lost its aaa rating in 2013. you say you want to see a definitive decline in the gdp ratio before we see a return to those heavy aaa days. when will we start to see definitive grinding down of that? >> it depends on a couple of things not just the deficit level itself, but you db growth. we are starting to see a pickup in u.k. growth. maybe even a little bit stronger. that helps on the debt dynamics because when gdp goes up, it goes down. when you get stronger growth and lower debt, user to see the jet to gdp ratio go down. it is not come down this year but he goes down next year. we have said it 90% is the peak level for a aaa. we need to get a dip inevitably -- get it definitively below 90.

mark: we hear from the budget of office responsibility. this year government bond sales are set to rise for the first time in four years. nearly 100 and 50150 pounds. manus: this is a government which is an issue. negative bonds. does that make guilt in british government bonds much more appealing in terms of where they sit on a global's respective? >> one would think with that yield pickup that it is more tractive but yields are higher in the u.s. than they are in europe as well. it comes down to a question of what is driving european yields into negative territory. it is not as if it is pot positive economic territory.

there are concerns about deflation that could drive yields lower and into negative territory. obviously, what the ucb is up to. it is a more attractive yield. mark: the fed, james meats yesterday and today. they are quibbling about patients. nce. we will be so glad if they drop it. is it better if we focus on the meetings? >> i'm not sure if it is dead yet, to be honest. i think the question for the fed is are rates going to increase libido of the year or will they wait until the later of the year? that appends on u.s. and -- that depends on u.s. inflation. it has been mid-2015 is when we will see the first rate rise. we are sticking with that call. you and ellen inflation numbers are coming down here -- even

though inflation numbers will come down here, we take it will continue. we think this cycle has turned. asked the language -- as to the language, the direction of change is different. caroline: the business is rating debt. a lot of countries don't want to issue in dollars if they are not based in the u.s. anymore. does that make the jump more interesting? will we have more denominated debt? >> potentially. don't forget, we saw big run-up in dollar issuances. if you look at between 2007 2014 in dollar issuance by corporate and banks and emerging markets, massive run-up. caroline: doesn't that hurt?

>> it is a concern because you are looking at a stronger dollar and schlanger u.s. tolerates going forward. -- stronger u.s. dollar rates going forward. the ones with the debt burden on the one what the bogus like brazil mexico. the biggest increases are in latin america. manus: we had stories yesterday suggesting capital and greece -- control in greece. what is the issue there? >> we don't think there will be an exit. if we see one, it will be because of a policy mistake. we don't think there will be capital control. the government will have enough cash in the short term. there are a couple of things

they can do to get there. there are a lot of questions to sort out. mark: thank you. more on our special coverage of eastern ukraine, coming up.

manus: you are watching countdown. the big dollar market is ahead of the meeting. 0.2%. i wrote my notes and the dollar was dropping for three straight days. technically my notes are really up-to-date. the interest rate market is way behind the federal reserve. the fed thinks where the

market believes it will be by the end of next year. 10-year yields are at a low. it in ain & that is the matter. mitsubishi told us the dollar continued ahigher. any drop is where corporate may want to get involved. the biggest hedge fund in the world says the fed moves too fast in terms of hiking the actual rate. that can invoke a 1937 style reich in the market. the dollar is on change. let's be benevolent. the dollar is virtually unchanged. it is the euro that is dipping by.

it is flat on the day. in terms of selling the euro, that would be the view. the markets have moved too far into fast. the start of qv with a final measure. with that in mind, they say get ready for a rebound. 120 on the euro-dollar is on the way. caroline back to you. caroline: the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund is sending a warning to investors. he says if the fed raises rates to quickly, a market similar to 1937 could be a result. there are several steps and the stock market slumped by more than 50 points. emirates has contested american let complaints that the airline gets subsidies. they reiterated that carriers

are playing fiar. >> it is important that the american government knows that we are being fair players. the accuracy of those consumer groups may help us. caroline: starbucks initiative is off to a rocky start. it is encouraging inspiration is -- it's pariss for reese coffee makers to be worth the discomfort. more on that story and many more on bloomberg.com. mark: chancellor osborne is going to speak. for more on the budget, let's get back to anna in westminster. anna: yes, if you want to

know what is happening, you can look at the polls or you can talk about the vetting. let's talk to ed. thank you for breaking the cauldron. what is going to be happening? >> the main markets, we are saying 50's minutes. gordon brown's tenure has gotten shorter. it is a no thrills budget. i'm thinking it'll be shorter than we expected, perhaps the 50 minute mark. if he is true to his word. the interesting aspect will be will it be political? normally, it is delivered in silence and then a debate. we know how political george osborne is. it is weeks away from the election.

caroline: we know there might be some key phrases to look out for -- anna: we know there might be some key phrases the lookout for. >> taxes is one. 107 times. anna: 106 times in 50 minutes. >> taxation and so on. anna: that is more than one mention in two minutes. >> that is quite a lot. i can see us having a few sellers this morning. will there be interruptions? that is the key. if it is john, i think it only might be a few. he tend to leave things alone. anna: will he use that opportunity? >> ---

anna: i remember 11 chancellor is reducing the whiskey. >> gordon brown came along and said he would have mineral water. i think we won't see any alcohol. geroge seems to get a little tight on the voice. i think he might reach the water three or four times. i'm not sure he will make much money that way. anna: let's look at the election. who do you have ahead of and what is the success rate looking at the polls? >> in terms of the pundits, they are the winners. in 2011, we got it a little wrong. this budget feel different. it all started with the reverend of. referendum. that is normally w -- that

is when we went into this budget. roughly, eight ahead of labor. is not what everyone's doing. s&p is the story of this election. 41 seats. anna: it is compared to the polls. >> three or 4% disappointment for the s&p. i will go from winning 20 seats to 55. there is a volatility. not many people believe the s&p avalanche 11. they would think the referendum is happening. we're kind of hedging our bets. we are pitching at high compared to where they are now. we are seeing a lot of buyers that think they will get 55 mp. anna: there will be more vetting along this election than the previous. two or three times as much

vetting this time around compared to 2010. >> at least. it is partially due to social media. there is a lot of back-and-forth. yesterday, the bartels came out -- marginals came out. people feel more informed so they think if they can make a better judgment. there is huge betting on obama's reelection. political vetting is really accelerating. people feel connected to it personally. a lot of people are attached to a political process. anna: a particular member should of parties. elections have been falling away in recent decades. it is interesting people are betting or less inclined to persuade. >> so many election seven forgone conclusions in the decades before.

it was not some was interest because we knew what would happen. 2010 changed all of that and we will have bipartisan politics. people, when there is more opportunity that is one betting increases. people feel they know more than we do. anna: thank you very much. 56 minutes, is that right? >> yes. anna: 108 mentions, perhaps? no conclusion on what side? a forgot delusion it will be blue? there are mystery j spirit we will see what he says. mark? mark: thank you. great stuff. we will bring you the budget in full. the u.k. election 2013. it is a special daily program. the run until the election.

business market and the economy. 11:00 as the starting time at london time on bloomberg television. caroline: let's go out to frankfurt with life pictures outside of the new headquarters being annihilated today. some 10,000 protesters planning anticapitalist protesters trying to block access to this inauguration. 1.3 euro new headquarters. we believe the police have deployed water cannons to the protesters. quite serious scenes. mark: join all of us on twitter. caroline: why would he watch any other station? mark: george, can you mentioned the budget? can you take four sips of water

because you get a bit croaky? caroline: what a better place? mark: of the head, the u.k. bonds market. stay tuned.

manus: these other top stories of this hour. margaret socko is replacing the web browser from was constantly's in the next version of this next system.

the company plans to roll out windows 10 in 190 countries this summer. intend it was set to rise in -- nintendo is set to rise because of being able to go on smartphones. dena as created the titles. ninetendo's stock plunged at 80% by 2007. the u.k. is adding tax returns by 2020. under proposals by george osborne. the treasury says the move which could affect 12 million taxpayers is aimed to improving productivity. caroline: one year after russians annexation by crimea it is devastating. the war-ravaged system of combat

that is emerged is not only complicating, it is unreliable. ryan visited the territories where he spoke with officials about those russian and ukrainian efforts to address the woes. >> while the world focuses on the human toll over 6000 dead, the economic toll is also enormous. even if the war ends, reconstruction will take years and cost billions of dollars. user ukraine -- eastern ukraine need to marshall plan. it is not clear who will foot the bill. what is clear is this separatist government needs help. the town's commander doubles as a mayor.

what is most important is industrial production. it is not shut down. the goal is to get into working at full capacity. >> bridges, airports, roads and railways lie in shambles. looks like these turks took a pretty direct hit. that don't have a goal. the political problem exists. some coal as gone to russia but ukraine is not allowing it to go freely. this plan should provide power for 2 million people but a bizarre and ironic technical snag means the plant is in peril. >> this is one of the biggest power plants in all of the area. they have two days worth of coal left in their stockpile. why? because the call it needs comes from the ukrainian side. ukraine's economic blockade of

goes beyond coal. after they froze the separatist region, banks, cash machines and credit cards do not work. all state services, salaries and pensions were cut off in november. a meager pension of of a couple dollars a day could be the difference between life and death. the lines are getting longer at the soup kitchen. but, these people are not homeless. ordinary folk need food to survive. the war means tens of thousands of people depend on and out -- handouts. he runs this place. she sees the elderly, families, even miners who were not getting paid. >> people are now not leaving. they are just arriving. people are close to starvation.

let's even a bowl of soup is becoming a luxury. prices in ukraine is rising faster in any place in the world other than venezuela. supplies in the clinton -- kitchen come from one place. >> only from russia. from the ukrainian side, we get nothing. no attempts to help. they have forgot about us. even though as you can see, there is no russians here. >> russia is not only sending food in recent, they are showing up in person in making aspect. -- spectacle. a russian official told reporters it is there on the personal orders of the russian president. state tv reporters broadcast the message in user ukraine. meanwhile, this official tells me america is sending military advisers to the other side.

quest humanitarian aid is humanitarian aid. food is food. this is not politics. i think you should not mix them together. >> he has lost dozens of his men. tagging along as miners on 50 kilo bags of flour and sugar. this is the heart and mind campaign. it is interesting and all the years i've been watching russia, this is the most vivid example of our i have seen yet\ that power i have seen yet. ukraine is blocking the flow of vital goods, some would say. for the record, ukraine says they reject it. all the weapons and troops kiev sends russians, russians off our is the vitamin -- soft power is

the academy -- a pity me. -- epitome. caroline: you have another piece coming out on friday. can you give us a tantalizing it of what you will be showing? >> on friday, we go to the international airport. it is an airport that ukraine spent hundreds of millions of dollars building ahead of the european soccer football ll championships. we went there to get a sense of what is next in this conflict. there is a cease-fire. what it can tell you without revealing too much, it did not feel like a cease-fire when we were there. that does not bode well in general for my be next in this conflict. caroline: i'm glad you are back

in one-piece. thank you very much. keep up the amazing work. we will have more from the special you bring conflict -- ukraine conflict throughout the day as well as the war-torn region coverage. mark: time for today's ecb qe good for the u.k. bond market? you would have to say yes. this is the spread or difference in yield between the u.k. bond and the similar mateurity, it is that -140. that means the germans are having less than the u.k. yields. that is interesting to see that. on march 9, the day ecb started biuyiuying government bonds

-- it was the widest since april 1997. since then, they yield has narrowed to 140 basis points. it is narrowed since that time. that is principally because they yield on the u.k. tenure dropped by 25 basis points last year the most in three years. with yields in the eurozone plunge into your record lows the bonding market here seems to be looking more attractive on the relative aces. -- basis. the regulators said -- talking about the u.k. benchmark interest rate which is one half percent -- in might look high-yield. he said the turmoil could trigger safe haven capital flows into the u.k.. other factors do come into play

when you talk about the spread between u.k. yields and german boons. we mention of the u.k. election. that is suggesting other conservatives or liberals will win. hbc says investors may sell bonds u.k. bonds in the run-up to the election. however, that could be seen as a dying opportunity supported by the backdrop of bond buying by the ecb. interest rates in the u.k. is very important to determining where the u.k. bond market is heading. 33 economists today aren't expecting a rate hike. the first quarter of next year. investors are more bullish. they are expecting more by may 16. a couple of weeks ago, they were going for slightly less a

chance. that is according to money market data. it is very rare you will see you kate yields -- u.k. yields less than german boons. the last time that happened -- november 2011. it rarely happens. u.k. yields tends to yield more than the german boon market. that is the ecb qwe, good for the u.k. markets. caroline: the fs --

day. will the word patient be removed? manus: janet can take out the word patients. and replace it with the more different word which means we are not lashed out to the rate type. caroline: we are seeing the dollar recover a little bit after three days of weakening, but many are feeling the dollar weakening once again even though the long-term directory -- trajectory -- mark: it doesn't matter the rhetoric. manus: all that is for later in the day. caroline: a new politics show. mark: on the move is up next.

as caroline says today is launch day. anna edwards with our new politics show everyday at 11 a.m.

jon: welcome to on the move. minutes away from the start of a busy day. losing patience. will be federal reserve take steps towards normalizing policy? crude crash. a plunge takes oil prices down and they are poised to reenter a bear market. it is budget day before the election. the prospects of no clear

winner. running through the show, will be watching frankfurt this morning. and the building is -- we will bring you live pictures through the morning. futures are up and manus cranny is worse for wear after st. patrick's day and has year market open. manus: patience is possessed by some in the federal reserve. patients will drop from the federal committee. do not be distressed. there is other language janet yellen can use with the equity