hill republicans sing the final cut. and congratulations. plans to call bebe sometimes

have. netanyahu says he will form a new government. what effect does bebe's election have? >> iran, the concern about the u.s. entering what many consider to be a bad deal there is not a lot of huge difference. the president would have been in the position of having to be inclusive and take his views into account. he can marginalize bibi because he has done that.

the reelection makes it harder for the president to not strike a deal but to sell a deal. i believe if and him vetoes the deal that struck, the deal will be dead. republicans will not be swayed by the russians are chinese are the germans. if netanyahu -- herzog would not have done a deal. campbell: he believes this is his legacy. if there is movement toward a deal that he does not believe is good for israel he could very seriously look at taking unilateral action. there could be a non--- and opportunity to say to the iranians i have one guy screaming in my ear and republicans in the other. you have bibi and tom cotton, take your pick.

let's move on, same topic but different point. and not answering questions about a two-state so-called solution about the israelis and palestinians. here is some real talk with bibi's reelection. is there any chance that this snowball survives? mark: the notion that these guys will get a deal not just because netanyahu says he is against the two state solution but the u.s. will be under pressure to do something to join with europe and other countries that want to move in a palestinian direction. there is no way. campbell: anyone who has

studied the region said that this particular moment, this is not the right environment. if you look at hamas, the gaza war. the region blowing up. mark: it is still the case of the bush people believe that everything in the middle east is tough. it does have spillover effects even if you're trying to make a deal. i do not think you can get to play in a room. the treasure will build to move against israel at the u.n. and that will take up the bandwidth. >> that was pressure -- puts pressure on bibi to dial it back in bed. his staff are already starting to walk his comments. in a way it is good for israel to be part of a peace process even if it is not real or you do not believe it will happen and

even before for theatrical reasons. it says to the world that they are trying. mark: the government that he will form in the next days or weeks will not be interested in peace talks and the israeli government -- all their efforts will be made. john kerry has plenty to do without starting talks that will not go anywhere. here is the headline for our fiscally minded viewers. senate gop plans to balance budget in 10 years. sounds fake -- fantastic. there are some caveats. let's turn to barack obama to explain. president obama: the authors were not specific about the cuts they propose and they imply someone else will bear the burden. it is not just a budget -- it

doubles down on trickle-down. mark: sounds like a man running for reelection in 2012. he is out there bashing the budget. the senate moved today, they are divided about how to deal with the senate republicans in the house republicans. is there any way of getting their way on big-budget issues? campbell: they have been beating up obama fervor for not putting course a budget of his own and he has. a lot of it is between the fiscal hawks and the defense hawks who are coming to some kind of agreement among themselves over how to address that. they have to come up with something. they have to sort out there on internal differences and kick the can, hope they can get to the fall when presidential politics will be far more centerstage and they will end up kind of a deal that they are not happy with what it will be a lot less embarrassing than what they

have now if they cannot work it out. mark: this is a brutal thing for them. they are talking about things that are unpopular. they are not explaining it. they are not doubling down. the budget did but they are not explaining it. if they are saying put us on a path to popularity they will have spokespersons talking about it. i have not heard a single candidate saying this budget is fantastic. if they do not take risks, they are dead. they want to make obamacare the center of their argument. mark: it is not great if you are the forward party and you have to put the budget force.

they are using budget gimmicks and trying to downplay the changes rather than embracing them. it is a risk that a risk without defending their position. campbell: i agree. barbara bush is asking for money from her -- for her son, jeb. george w will be in las vegas. mark: this is one that has been under-commented on. she is not a huge rainmaker but

they officeholder in texas, his father, his mother. these are people who raised more money than the republican candidates can themselves raise. campbell: right now i am seeing these numbers in the articles, $100 million by june and one that had $500 million by june. that is an enormous extraordinary amount of money to have been raised at this point. does that send a message to the base that he already owns this thing, we have not had a chance to weigh in. is there risk of being that far out and that far ahead on the fundraising side that there will be blowback for it. mark: they will wait before they take big checks. then they will say we may be

raising more but everyone is taking big corporate money. they will try to limit the publicity about how much they are raising but it is out there. jeb bush has real problems. there is a downside to the bush name. the upside is no one's pretending they will be close to him in fund-raising. campbell: every article talks about this. it is a process story about how much money he is raising. the story about walker is about who he is meeting and where he is going. jeb should get out there. mark: he is going to georgia and traveling to other states. there is no bigger advantage he has right now than his ability to raise money and his family's ability to raise money. take advantage even if there is a downtown -- downside.

more on the interesting american-israeli relationship. obama and bibi right after this.

campbell: our guest tonight is so familiar with israeli politics he does not just like it on facebook he likuds it. thank you for coming on and tolerating that bad joke. why don't you give us an overview on where things stand today? guest: assuming the polls were correct, he did rally the base and told them, the other guy

will get into power. you must focus your votes on the likud and it worked. mark: he basically got the people on the right to say this is the one choice to keep the kind of government you want. he is a great politician. he does not want the iran deal but he faces incredible hostility not just from the personality of the american government but the possibility that in the u.n. he will start to use -- lose. guest: netanyahu has fundamentally focused on the homeland and the two parties that he stole from, both have home in their name. his goal is to say if they are doing an international game it is to say the stuff going on around us is so much worse, you

have global issues on your plate and i am happy to help but the idea of a two state solution right now, while this is happening, get serious. that is what he will say. campbell: i am going back to the netanyahu speech before congress. the hostility from this administration but not from republicans but there is this view about has he alienated young people, does america feel the same way toward israel? the relationship has never been stronger, people only family members fight this intensely. ethan: there is some truth to that. it is almost like a kind of marital argument. support is crumbling -- if there is support crumbling, there is dated to suggest that among the young and liberal and educated

and american jews, there is less support. american support is overwhelming. it has been for 60 years. every since -- ever since there has been data on this topic. there is no real decline except if you look at the segments of the young and the liberals. we do not have data on the young from a long time ago so it do not know what to compare with. mark: military option. lots of reporting says there is no good military option. does netanyahu think there is a military option? ethan: he that there was a couple of years ago and there is his issue that it becomes impossible for it to work. i think that he thinks the general thinking is absolutely

necessary it can happen but i agree that a deal will be harder to get than people think. mark: is it to eliminate the program or send a signal to them? ethan: you kind of slow it down but do not eliminate it. that has been kind -- the kind of military view. there is this famous phrase that applies into the west bank cutting the grass. it is something you have to keep going at. you will not eliminate the problem, you manage the problem. they say you are crazy. we do not have the weapons. mark: not just iran but the region. ethan: no one is advocating much even if netanyahu is not. campbell: have the chances of getting a deal changed or is it going to be this no matter what,

it was always going to be very hard. ethan: that is a great question. i do not see who is prime minister necessarily negotiating between iran and the world powers. it is hard to see it being that big a deal because we all know that herzog and the labour party do not like this deal, either. mark: has the u.s. making -- made a mistake, making it seem like it is the u.s. versus israel rather than russia, germany, great britain, that it is not just a u.s.-iran bilateral deal. ethan: that is true. i do know if you are right if that is how they were traded. if they did that is a mistake. it is the world powers that want this. one of the reasons the u.s. is moving toward this deal as they do not think that other countries are interested. that is what netanyahu's

argument has been. let's tighten the sanctions. campbell: thank you so much. after the break we answer the question, iowa, hot or not? we will be right back. ♪

mark: the former aide to scott walker committed a comment -- a cardinal sin of politics. over a couple of days tweets derided iowa's role, including this one. that is not the only shot the caucuses have taken as of late. he majored donor for chris christie said this referring to

iowa and rick santorum's victory in the last go around, what did it do for him overall? how are you going to let a bunch of old ladies determine who is going to be the next president? a major butler for chris christie. the party did not want to comment on that. neither did chris christie's campaign but it does show that iowa's place in the process is not totally sacrosanct for some to discuss. our colleague from our washington bureau. the -- what are the brickbats thrown in iowa? guest: you have to become less electable in the other states.

when you saw -- the complaint was pretty generalized. everyone had to make nice with steve king on immigration in hand or on ethanol policy. certainly scott walker had to pander on the policy. once you win ohio you have wanted yourself in order to win 10,000 not people in one small state. >> it is right wing on some issues. it is pandering positions on other issues. if you win iowa it hurts you because to win you have to say and do stuff that will hurt you down the road. david: there is a strategy of candidates hourly going to us in the media and saying i am not going to compete in iowa.

lindsey graham has done that this year. john mccain did it with a straw poll in 2007. the iowa republican party has changed the location of its straw poll and trying to rebrand it. people are tired of driving around the state. it is difficult strategically to navigate the place. they are spending all this time for what exactly? they get a couple of delegates out of it and they have embarrassed themselves on policies they do not want to talk about. they are asked a lot. steve king who is open and avuncular continues to make people nervous about what their nominee will look like. campbell: don't you think scott walker overacted given what she had said, the guy who worked for bush had all these sexist tweets and she told the truth.

what she said. doesn't walker more than anyone have more leeway to not have to pander because he is a midwestern guy to begin with? he is not having to struggle to connect with the iowa people in the same way other candidates might. david: you are right and this is why this will have a longer tail than the average staff finding. liz was can -- connected with the [inaudible] they liked her and agreed. conservatives say i will not give you free money for farms that you do not need anymore. conservatives are happy that walker had appointed someone was more of a libertarian mindset. that is what -- all the things

that made this worse, that is on the list. liz had worked for him and then all of a sudden she was unacceptable because of a couple of quotes. mark: they think they have to win iowa at all costs and cannot take any risks. it shows that he does not have the willingness, the courage to say that not everyone who works for me will agree with me on every issue. i care about the iowa caucuses and she is a great and valuable voice in my campaign. campbell: or just the experience to put your head down and write this out. mark: thanks very much. we will be back with able prediction from president obama. ♪

campbell: there are the oddsmakers.

every year, president obama makes his march madness picks. if the wildcats are listening do it for the president. mark: we talk to new hampshire voters. sayonara. ♪

pimm: i am pimm fox. janet yellen is losing patience but in a good way. the central bank deleted the word patient from their statement. yellen spoke about the change in a news conference. >> just because we removed the word patient from the statement does not mean we are going to be impatient. pimm: u.s. stocks and bonds rallied after the fomc meeting. the european central bank was under siege today.