reforms to secure more bailouts. saudi arabia pledges to continue strikes for as long as necessary. futures a little bit higher as we go into the open. over the next hour, the president to have bundesbank and mark carney also speaking. i'll bring you to highlights. for now, manus cranny at your market hope. manus: it is really aggressive back-to-back declines on the stoxx 600. a couple of things that just caught my eye. deposits are at a 10-year low in greece. in february deposits dropped by 5%. 23 billion euros were pulled out of greek banks. you are reaching that break

point in greece. they have to decide what they are going to do in terms of their plan. it has to be robust. equity markets have a little bit of a jump this morning. let's see what is driving our markets. the results of the tragedy of germanwings is forcing many of the international carriers norwegian air along with end zone jet to have two people in the cockpit -- easyjet to have at least two people in the cockpit which is the u.s. style. let's go to some individual names we're keeping an eye on this morning. commodities. nymex giving back some of its 17% gain. down 1.8%. i think why are they absolutely

obsessed with crushing the situation in yemen? a part of it is to do with their own population and where the population is dominated. brent down 1.5%. gold just below $123 1,200 a barrel level. energy is really going to be a focus. never in the past eight years has it been so divergent. socgen at one end and bank of america at the on the other hand. oil around the $69 level. those are the commodities spectrums. rio tinto seeing -- there are reports there will be job cuts.

nova trading up. their insulin drug it looks as if that is a step closer to regulation approval. up 12.84%. the irish are defying me. we have the full year report and we're seeing statements there quite warm towards the i.a.g. that is state of play. japan's inflation was in your top news. there you go. the best performing currency in 2015. it is taking a little bit of reprieve this morning. that is the best performing

currency of 2015. the yen, what happened? inflation, will it get to 2%? stims are it only hit 1% by this time of year. they have to continue to do -- 120 is almost mission impossible at the moment to get through. pair ba up around 140 in the near term. back to you. jonathan: thank you very much. data out of japan this morning on the surface inflation data doesn't look so bad. consumer prices rose a solid 2% from the month of february. it is only when you -- last year's sales tax increase that a darker story starts to come to life. this is bank of japan for third measure of inflation. grounded to a halt zero% and seemingly poised to drop below that. all of this as the labor market

tightens. the jobless rate there is 3.5%. the amount available to each applicant continues to rise. kuroda suggests any drob in prices is temporary. andrew help me out here. what if it isn't temporary. what if we go subzero and they have to do even more. >> if we go, still an if, i suspect the bank of japan will do more. inflation has disappointed. tds really down oil prices. the measure includes oil prices. it excludes fresh foods but includes oil. wages are picking up. the labor market is really tight in japan. it is going to be a tens tense few months for the b.o.j. you expect to see inflation

picking up. the 2% target still looks pretty optimistic but we certainly expect to see inflation picking up in japan as we would in other places. jonathan: the global scene has put a -- on bond yields. we go low, low low. we follow the inflation rate lower. is that the right trade to make then if you're expecting inflation rebound? >> weary about how low yields have gone. you need to distinguish between what is going on in the u.s. and europe. a lot of downward pressure on inflation. in the u.s., the inflation numbers that we had out this week were up a little bit. 1.7 versus 1.6 previously. wage pressure starting to emerge. you see this in the trucking sector. increase in minimum wages on the card. all of these things are putting some upward pressure. this is not an inflation scare.

you need to distinguish between what we're seeing in europe and the u.s. and the japanese labor market. jonathan: let's talk about the market in europe. you see the curve. the german sovereign curve now compared to just 12 months ago. it has collapsed. where do we go from here and how do you look at things now? >> the amount of buying that the e.c.b. is doing is pretty extraordinary. they certainly surprised on the positive side in terms of the q.e. program. putting that floor of the depo rate for maturities for which they will buy has really pushed that buying out. it is part of the reason we're seeinging the long end of -- but certainly the german curve performing so well. this program, we're knowledge our third week. we have 18 more month s of this. i think it would be right to expect some further downward pressure. there are going to be a lot of other factors in play.

how much further does it depreciate? as the big force pushing yields down. that is e.c.b. jonathan: let's talk about the factor from all of this. europe to the u.s. i look at the oil price as well. treasury yields lower. bottomed out a couple of months ago as did treasury yields. if you think oil could rebound from here, is there trades to be made >> i think that is right. it has a huge inventory issue to work through in the u.s. we're going to stay around here. if you move higher, and stay there, that will clearly put up with pressure on inflation. the way the labor market is going to be the key. it seems to us around the 2% on 10 years. expect to see them moving higher. particularly with the fed in play. probably not in june. but a very good chance they are

raising rates. jonathan: we look at the japan situation. that is a tight labor market by any measure. the wage growth, though. when does the wage growth come? >> we have been waiting for a while. it is a lagging indicator. it takes a while before people start feeling confident enough to push for increased wages. the tight labor market puts pressure on companies that they have to put wages up. in japan, we're seeing entry workers having higher wages. it is happening. it is just not enough to really impact the numbers. we're not seeing it across the board. macro numbers. i think by q 3 and q 4, we will see the wages picking up.

jonathan: a very busy weekend lies ahead for the greek government. details when "on the move" returns. 10 minutes into the session. the dax up 60%. the ftse 100 down about .1%. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." let's bring you up to speed with some of the top stories on bloomberg.

nigeria, the vote pits good luck jonathan against the dictator. saudi arabia propping up the country's government. saudi jets continued to bomb the capital city. strikes will continue as long as necessary according to a saudi spokesman. searching for the flight recorder from germanwings flight that crashed. it killed all 150 onboard. any motive remains unclear. after the tragic germanwings incident the focus for airlines shifts to preventing situations in which a similar situation can occur. the downing seeps to be enabled

by precaution taken after 9/11. norwegian is among those changes procedures so that a commercial pilot cannot be left alone in the cockpit. i guess my first question would be this has been a u.s. retirement for a while. why was u.s. behind the curve? >> i think you to actually direct that question to the european -- because it is not a law and requirement from those people. but we have at norwegian, we have thought about this for a little while how the and actually when this was known as a factor of the accident two days ago we decided to actually put a little more pressure on what we already had been working

on. so we actually implemented a new rule yesterday evening stating that a cockpit crew member should never be left alone in the cockpit. even if the other pilot has to leave for physical needs or a safety reason. jonathan: i understand this has to wait for regulatory approval. what do they have to approve? what would they be worried about? >> difficult question. from our point of view, leaving, you know it is a general rule that cockpits should be operated by two pilots. one of them can occasionally leave for physical needs or safety reasons. but the thing is when that pilot is alone, he has nobody to help him.

nobody to look after him in a way, because we can -- i don't think the suicidal prospect is -- it is quite odd. the thing which is more actually more concerning is fatigue or if the pilot becomes incapacitated for some reason. they have to have someone to help them get the other pilot into the cockpit. that is the whole idea. jonathan: clearly pilotless things are something for decades ahead. as you look at things, can we avoid every situation? we have to put our trust in the guys who fly the plane. would you say actually we're at a point where you need to trust the guys flying the planes?

there is no other option? >> basically you're right. i don't see any option. when we take our pilots, we definitely have to be careful what kind of pilots we are recruit. -- recruiting. i must also remind you this is a very odd situation. the probability for something happening is extremely low, but at the same time, we as a company has to do every means to make sure that we have the right guys onboard sitting in the cockpit. jonathan: thank you for joining us this morning. fantastic insight. the director of flight operations at norwegian. we'll talk greece when "on the move" returns. the dax a little bit firmer. the ftse 100 pretty much dead

flat. the euro, weakness in the last hour. equity across europe in the green. we're back in two. ♪

jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro. it is crunch time in athens. policy makers there are set to work the weekend.

the greek government has until the 30th of this nopt submit a comprehensive list of reforms. april 9 then looms large. the need to come up with 458 million euros to fay i.m.f. the government grapples with their own liquidity issues. deppeds deposits continue to leak out of the banking system. bank deposits have dropped 15% plunging to a decade low. time is running out. let's bring in andrew. time is running out. we have said it before. why is this time any different? >> the money is running out. that is the truth. we have been asked to put in place a number of measures to forestall that event. i think there is focus now on the reforms. i think the e.u. finance ministers will want to look

through that pretty closely. if they neat the requirements, the finance ministers maturities coming up through the middle of april. maybe that disbursement doesn't happen until late april. i think this cash crush will continue for a little while longer. those list of reforms will be key. the hard task of implementation begins. the big question that markets are focused on are does it happen just because we have the right reforms or will there be some conditionality? do we need to see those reforms implements? does it require legislation? i think we'll be talking about it for another month or more. jonathan: we know this matters complacency. would you stay market is being complacent?

>> it is certainly difficult. you have this potential problem in greece. at the same time, of course, you have the e.c.b. there cucking its quantitative easing program, purchasing bonds in periphery. normally you would take a more cautious view around peripheral bonds. we talked about german yields being so low. spanish and italian yields have come down. everywhere those yields are very low. as long as they stay there, things are happening there . growth is doing ok. they are in good shape. it is very difficult to try and invest around something like this. jonathan: when i look at risk vepts coming up in april, we talked about the rollover in the treasury bills. in any other country rolling over treasury bills is easy money. in greece, how easy is that

going to be if this isn't sorted out? >> it all comes back to reforms. i think we're going to be in for a tense couple of weeks as we see what those reforms look like, the reaction from the e.u. finance ministers and exactly what kind of condition at they put around the greek reform process. jonathan: i look at european equities. phenomenal performance. where do we go from here? surely this has beaten any of your expectations. >> we expect european equities to outperform. that is has outperformed in dollar terms. it has outperformed the u.s. the weakness in euro will help european earnings. there has been some improvement on the underlying economic

conditions in europe as well. they probably outperform here. the case is stronger than it was two or three months ago. jonathan: how much sometime are you spending with guys on the fx desk? are you becoming more of an fx strategist? >> we talked about it a lot in the past as well. it makes a big difference particularly for european companies. a large part of their earnings comes from outside the eurozone. you become you know, a foreign exchange strategist for sure. but again, you have to go back to the underlying companies and look at the strength. we have good earnings in many sectors that are sort of supporting our positive view on european equities. it is not just an exchange rate game. you can't ignore it. jonathan: you were long equities short euro/dollar.

the big move is happening in the next three months. has the big money already been made this year, dare i say it? >> no, i think there is a long way to go. there has been a big move in the dollar for sure. we're taking a bit of a pause. we talked about the volatile any something like euro/dollar. there is still spent of opportunities here. -- plenty of opportunities here. we take a pause in this dollar rally. i think we could see another leg up in the dollar. pause take some breaths and mostly the dollar continues to move higher. jonathan: are you short aussie kiwi or long aussie kiwi? >> i'm from new zealand. jonathan: this you go. andrew wilson. coming up, we'll talk saudi.

the latest conflict does it put saudi arabia on a collision course with iran? we'll discuss that after a short break. ♪

jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into your trading day. this is how things are shaping up in friday's trading session this morning. equities on a little bit of a rebound. the dax is up by 76 points. the cac about 20 pints. losses on the ftse 100 but gains across much of the eurozone. euro dollar a little bit of weakness. 108.21 as i'm looking at the terminal screen how the. let's look at some of these indexes. caroline: i'm look at the top performer today.

it is all about a main insulin drug. it could be in the u.s. by the turn of the year. it is going to be reapplying to the u.s. regulators. there is more data analysis on risks this drug may have in terms of cardiovascular risks risks to your heart. the drug is a step closer to approval. it was rejected once but it really could dominate in terms of sales for novo nordisk. swatch saying look, our sales are looking pretty rosy. we see full-year revenue growth at the top of our estimate.

on the downside, it is all about oil. so volatile. we see oil prices move, so too do the stocks related to oil whether ns the service sector in the big excavators of oil. down almost 2% this morning. jonathan: thank you very much, caroline hyde. we're going to talk nigeria's crude addiction. we're a day away from saturday's presidential election in high in year jeeria. it is expected to be a -- in nigeria. it is expected to be a tight race. great to have you with us this morning. what can you tell us about the two candidates? >> it really is expected to be a tight race this time around. let me take you tow the two candidates. the main candidates are incumbent president good luck jonathan.

jonathan is 57 years old. he is the nigerian president for the last five years. during his time in office he has been credited for privatizing nigeria's sector. he has been criticized for failing to put an end to insurgency by bokeo har a.m. the poupt came to power in 1983 following a military coup. he ruled for about a year and a half. he is predominantly from the north. many nigerians remember his time in power for brutality and a clampdown on freedom of speech and many politicians were jailed during that time. this is his second time running

against good luck jonathan. many observers feel he has a fair chance of winning. jonathan: nigeria's economy has been battled by -- battered by oil prices. what is at the top of the agenda for whoever is the new president? >> you're right. the oil prices have fallen almost 50%. nigeria, being africa's biggest oil producer and 2/3 of government revenue coming from oil, this will heavily impact the economy. they have lost 18% against the dollar in the past six months. the next president will have his hands full with the economy but he also has to deal with boko haram. they led a bloody insurgency in the north of the country where they controlled some areas and human rights watchers said they killed about 5,000 people in

nigeria. these are issues the next president will have to deal with. jonathan: the election postponed in february because of the insecurity. has it improved? >> yeah. the military have said they couldn't guarantee security as a result of boko haram. in the last six weeks sprks situation has -- chad joined forces with high in year gentleman to put some pressure on them. they have reclaimed some of the areas occupied by them. security another concern is political violence. nigeria has a bad track record when it comes to political fraud and violence. people are hoping that things will go peacefully. the situation seems to have been

solved by the government. of course it is a wait and see after tomorrow's polls. jonathan: thank you very much. thank you for joining us on the phone this morning. elections very much in focus elsewhere in the world. in the u.k., it is the first of four television events. prime minister david cameron and ed mill bant getting a -- ed miliband getting a grilling. it was not a debate. it was a con volume out aed -- convoluted thing. now we have to figure out who won. >> who wan? crudely put by the guardian running a poll that said that cameron won. 54% said cameron won. 46% said miliband won.

interesting to look at how much we learned about these individuals and these two men involved. of course there are many parties standing in this race race. these are the two involved in last night's debate. one of the criticisms leveled at david cameron is he is out of touch with ordinary people. no surprises that the questioning started around the subject of food banks, free food for people who can't afford it. quickly went on to talk about zero hours contracts. and talk about whether he could survive. >> the point is some people choose the contract. if you're a student for instance and you want to do some part time work, a zero hours contract with work for you. we haven't outlawed them all together. no, i wouldn't live on one of those. >> if that is the weak point for david cameron. the weak point in the polling for ed miliband, just how suitable are you to be a prime

minister? he was asked how he would be in a room with vladimir putin. this was him trying to prove that he has statesmanlike credentials. >> am i tough enough? he yes i'm tough enough. the thing i have learned most about this job is to be yourself. that's what i am. people have to decide. do they want my ideas and principles? i stood up not just to president obama, but to rupert murdoch fighting for ordinary people which is what i believe in, that i came into politics for. anna: that is ed miliband there. he fought comp television his brother to get the -- jonathan: did we learn anything about policy at all? anna: the wound s of his

brother have not quite healed. there are lots of marks about how the toriv going -- and how labor party is going to put up taxes. in terms of deficit cutting, how much is going to fall on the welfare budget and where specifically is it going to be? this is what david cameron had to spafmente >> we said that breaks down into 13 billion that needs to be saved in government funds. 12 billion in welfare and 5 billion from cracking down on tax evasion and avoidance. we have identified for instance freezing benefits for two years. to raise some of that money. but the 12 million, the 12 billion compared with 20 billion that was saved in the last parliament in this current parliament by this government on welfare. this is well within the range of

what we can do. >> do you know where these cuts will fall? do you know and you're not telling us or do you not know? >> we know there will be difficult decisions. that we will have to go through every part of welfare budget. anna: this was david cameron giving us a little bit more on -- cuts that are going to come from the welfare budget. we have a bit more from ed miliband on europe. it is not yes or no to a referendum. if there is no big transfer of power on the agenda then there won't be a referendum. if this were a possibility there could be a referendum. jonathan: we have various ways to check this or how it may have gone. we can use the polls or go to twitter. do a quick search and look at

some of the messages there. what are you finding out on social media? anna: we have this hash dag battle. you might be surprised at some of the success. it was very dominant yesterday in terms of twitter traffic in the u.k. clearly at that time people watching tv were watching this and talking about this. in terms of what what got the most mention, cameron or miliband cameron got more but the labor party got more mention than conservatives. the most tweeted phrase was at the end. this was made into a vine clip. it has gone viral as they say. jonathan: going forward what is left? what is on the agenda? anna: we have more. a series of debates. there won't be a head to head

between cameron and miliband. we will see them on stage together but with lots of other parties in there as well. it is not the -- that some in the media were looking for. others have said they do a lot of head to head debating but the u.k. electoral system is different and maybe doesn't need it. jonathan: political theater even if you don't live in the u.k. as we head to break, a quick check on crude this morning. a surge after strikes on the capital of yemen. brent heading back towards $60 a barrel. we are lower be 2%. $58. nymex also down by 2%. we'll talk about this after the break. the saudi-led air strikes continue to batter.

is saudi arabia on a collision course with iran? we'll discuss that after the break. ♪

jonathan: good morning. happy friday. welcome to "on the move." we have to talk about oil and the middle east. saudi strikes against rebels conned overnight. middle east editor elliott gotkine joins us now. give me the latest.

i understand the saudi-led strike continued into the early hours this morning and are expected to continue over the weekend. elliott: they will continue their campaign until they feel they have achieved their objectives. the prime objective is to try to bring a swift toned this operation in order to get shiite rebels to the negotiating table to reach a peaceful settlement but at the same time the saudis are determined to ensure first of all they do not overrun yemen. they don't want a proxy for iran on their border. they don't want to prop up the internationally recognized government. it is not just what is according to some already, already basically a civil war. but they don't want to see the likes of al qaeda, for example, having more of a free reign on the peninsula.

they don't want to see conflict moving on to the border with saudi arabia itself. it is a large number, a large laundry list of goals and objectives that the saudis have. the principle one seems to be to try to bomb them into submission. to try to get the president back in charge and bring some kind of peace to yemen. jonathan: elliott gotkine, thank you very much for joining us this morning. we have to talk about the impact on the commodity market. crude -- yesterday after the bombing began. oil moving in another direction, lower. that surge yesterday was just a knee-jerk reaction. it seems the market agrees. we go higher by 5% 6% at one point yesterday. now we go dourn by 2%. there has been some nervousness

around this though. why? >> it led to the -- yesterday. if you look a a at the end mental stiveed picture it is the weak market you're looking at lower supply leading to -- in the market. oil stocks rising in the u.s. even china. storages are running out slowly but surely. as far as fundamentals are concerned, they are quite weak. i think yesterday's news nearly brought that uncertainty, geopolitical risks. that existed 1 1/2 years ago and had a much bigger impact. markets don't know how big an impact yemen and saudi destruction would have on the greater middle east production area. when they realize it yes, ma'am season a smaller producing region and the potential would

be limited unless they -- 4 million barrels per day. jonathan: what should the geopolitical risks be at this point? >> related to yemen, prices did go up $3 or $4 per barrel yesterday. to be honest based on the current glut in the market it should get dampened by the glut that we have in the market at present. jonathan: some nervousness in the market. a week later it is completely off the radar. what has to develop? what are the warning sign u.s. to that makes youity of that situation differently? a fundamental change in oil market? >> what we are really monitoring is -- between the saudis and the iranians. this crisis in yemen.

if this really spreads into these two many oil producing regions or beyond in the widespread region of the middle east which are big oil producers, that is when we will start worrying a bit. then you're not just looking at -- you could be worried about other important -- like the hormuse strait. jonathan: now i look at the global oil situation. u.s. production. we have been seeing it closing the gap over the last five years. a phenomenal change. the interesting part is saudi production is stable. it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. it is higher if anything. you look at that chart there, does it change in the next 12 months in a big way? >> saudi arabia's position here is quite clear. they want to main thain tear market share. they ever clearly done that in the past in the last six months by keeping the production levels high and they are justifying that by saying that the demand

is strong. the global demand has been slightly stronger especially in the north american part but in the asian side, we are expecting strong demand. in the future looking at the u.s. and saudi, we expect -- it remains a political issue. as long as they want to maintain the market share and make sure producers are taken out of the market they will continue with their policy. as far as the u.s. is concerned, we take a slightly different view in the market. could potentially lead to a stronger than expected decline in the growth rate for u.s. oil production. what we were expecting 1 million barrels per day could get closer to 200,000, 300,000 barrels per day. jonathan: in 10 seconds we have i know it is like darts with a blindfold on. the year-end forecast of brent?

>> we are expecting at 157 dollars a barrel. we expect the spreads to remain wide in the second quarter between brent and the -- there is pressure closer to the end of the second quarter. jonathan: thanks for joining us. we head to the break, 52 minutes into the session. it is the morning of two days of losses. just coming off session highs on the dax. the ftse down .1%. we'll discuss these markets and tell you what to look at for the day ahead. ♪

jonathan: good morning, for those of you listening on bloomberg radio, "the first word is next." "the pulse" is coming up. guy, i'm looking at the markets. 10 week s of gains on the dax. the market showing a little bit of strength. the conviction, a little bit of uncertainty. guy: nothing is a straight line. you'll always get little dips. look at any chart. there are plenty of wiggles on it. i think this week may be one of those wiggles. next week is going to be fascinating. the back end of next week, we

start to get into the u.s. payrolls. i think next week could be an interesting week. jonathan: interesting next week it comes on a good friday. guy: i won't be here. jonathan: we won't be here. why is next week so different? guy: i think as we pile up the number of things that greece has got to pay and then subtract the amount of money it has got, then at some point simple basic arithmetic requires that we need a solution to this. this is -- the simple money and the -- of the money doesn't work at some point. jonathan: politicians are doing with going to allow the e.c.b. -- it becomes a little bit of an issue. we're going to talk oil. that is a big story. what's happening in yemen. and the import/export banks. that is a big conversation given

what's happening in china now. jonathan: thank you very much, guy johnson. continue the conversation with me. i'm at twitter. jonathan ferro tv. have a good weekend. ♪

guy: european airlines that to adopt u.s. style rules to have pilots in the cockpit at all times. francine: the risk in the middle east versus the oversight in the oil prices. guy: cameron beats miliband in the first major televised debate. good morning. you're watching "the pulse." here in london.