>> a pledge for your. the labor leader kicks off election campaigns. a pitch to british businesses. and a commitment to the eu. >> redrawing red lines. submitting proposals. facing lawmakers. can he unlock the bail out and keep his promises to voters? >> china search stocks in the biggest rally of 2015. the central bank indicates more stimulus could be in the cards.

>> welcome to "countdown." i'm caroline hyde. i'm manus cranny. >> coming up, another deal deadlock. diplomats gave differing accounts on what is needed to reach an agreement before the self-imposed deadline. >> campaigning for the u.k. general elections officially kicks off today. prime minister david cameron is expect it to visit the queen of buckingham palace. anna edwards has the story. really it begins without pomp -- with the pomp ceremony. >> yes. the official start. the official start of campaigning. this is in the financial times. this is the advert the labour

party has taken out. the threat of an eu exit. really trying to rehabilitate the image of the labour party with the business community on capping energy prices. there is some work to be done to rehabilitate the image. beyond that, we have that other details to show you what we're going to hear a little bit later on. a vote on the eu would be a recipe for two years of uncertainty here there is the europe focus. that could play well with some at least. there are many voices within the community who don't want to see a referendum. at least not the uncertainty that it creates. labor will promise to keep

corporation the lowest. the first move the labor government would take would be to increase it to 21% unit there talking about reforming takeover rules. we will see how that goes down pit want to see some traction. employees to sit on the committee. we will get more details on infrastructure plans of their backing the establishment of the british investment bank. a lot of policies coming through. a focus on europe will be at the center. >> they have been saying it is on the threat, whichever party comes to the helm. moving on, we have had so much over the weekend in terms of policy. what stood out to you? >> let's start with the polling.

that has been moving a lot. not necessarily in that direction you can interpret much. they suggested that the labour party was four points ahead. a bounce in reference to the interview they did. but then there's another poll out overnight you is says completely the opposite. that the labor had no bounce speed and that it was four points behind. >> i thought david cameron had won from the initial reaction. >> exactly. there was a pull it said he had done better -- poll that said he had done better. you cannot read all that much into that. the other noise, fascinating things going on in glasgow. the leader of the s&p talking

and try to entice the -- 20 put a more favorable image to those who may have been -- trying to put a more favorable image to those who may have been alarmed. back the s&p. >> if there's a whole parliament -- i call on labor today to match that pledge. make clear so that labor and the s&p compliant has more than the tories. they will join forces with us in a vote of confidence to lockette david cameron out. [applause] >> very important, of course. polling suggests we will see labor and a great deal of

trouble. nicola saying they could take everyone. we will see how much success they managed to have. >> labor is going to reenact what they did in the run-up. flood scotland in terms of bring back in some of the scottish voices. >> we could see that. we spoke to the snp. what is the criteria for having another independent referendum? that could be a factor as well. good another referendum feature in the manifesto? it doesn't sound like it. what they told us was that they were going to see what westminster will be able to

deliver before they decide whether there will be another independent referendum. no doubt another top behind closed doors. -- no doubt another topic behind closed doors. david cameron -- we have seen both of the major parties, the biggest polling parties, the conservatives and labor, all taking steps. we have david cameron over the weekend talking about national health. something the labour party has been the only ones talking about in recent weeks. some things i found most interesting at that particular event was how personal the criticism was getting. critical of his ability to be peace men like enough to be the prime minister. this is what cameron said. >> i know what this world needs. frankly, i don't think ed --

some might say, don't make this personal it but when it comes to who is prime minister, the personal is national. the guy who forgot to mention the deficit would be the one in charge of our whole economy. the man who is too weak to stand up to the tribune's at home could be the one facing enemies abroad. the leader who thinks leadership is climbing aboard the latest bandwagon seems to be the one making those make or break calls in the middle of the night. >> ed miliband making those maneuvers if you like over the business community, trying to woo back the this is community. >> let's see how the day progresses. let's see what miliband has to offer. thank you so much. >> let's get to breaking news. we had seen a deal being

confirmed. this is a swiss company. it is going much bigger into the world of what you should be dying -- buying. world duty-free. they want to raise 2.2 billion and swiss francs. they want to sell shares. then got to get their share holder sign-ups for that news. there will be cost reductions of 100 million swiss francs. overall, they are also getting investments from the sovereign wealth funds in the middle east. >> 19 countries. >> they are exiting, aren't

they? >> this is where the debate comes from. it comes out of the stake in the company. >> premium their managing to get on the share price overall. they want to expand. the key to it all. >> let's move things on. talking about greece. the prime minister will go before the country's parliament to push for more economic reforms today. in an interview over the weekend, he warned you will cross any redlines in cutting wages or pensions. we go over to hans nichols who has been following developments for us. debt deadlines looming.

are the measures going to satisfy them? >> good morning. they may not be specific enough. they also assume a 1.5 or 1.4 growth rate to get to that 1.5 primary surplus. here is what they will be showing. they say they will raise an additional 3 billion euros in revenue. 2.5 of that will come from the property tax. that is important. also, increasing the valued added tax. based on those two fronts, he is moving towards creditors. as you said, nothing on labor market reform. nothing on pension reform. that could be a dealbreaker. is what he told news over the weekend in a sunday night interview. it is no prospect of taking any recessionary measures whether cutting wages or pensions are

liberalizing on mass dismissals. it is unclear if this was going to be specific enough to relieve any of that seven point billion euros in aid that is still left over in the bailout. the met today's deadline. they met to these deadline on getting a list -- excuse me wednesdays deadline, getting a list to brussels. and then there is an ecb meeting. they might decide on whether to increase the emergency liquidity. the banks and greece are under great pressure. have got a big payment. 458 million euros due april 9. that is paid to the imf. later, big payments. rollover date to consider. april 14. treasury bills. three days later another billion in treasury deals. i greek banks going to be allowed to buy this debt? -- are greek angst going to be

allowed to buy this debt? will they allow such purchase of that? look at the risk considered. this is pricing in the likelihood that greece will raonic on their debt -- will re nege on their debt. we saw fitch downgrade their reading yet again on friday -- rating yet again on friday. >> what both assumptions is the government in athens making? they want to restructure the debt to any growth prospects in greece. >> what they are suing is a 1.5% growth rate. that is for the year. look at what happened in terms of capital.

it is difficult to assume how greece is going to continue to grow if they have all this capital leaving their country. we won't get a gdp indicator until later on in maine. in the month of january and february, tax receipts have been down. they're not even in a primary surplus. that is the big question. are they going to be going fast enough to meet their targets? will this list be specific enough for creditors? >> so many questions left unanswered. thank you. hans nichols. >> foreign ministers from the world powers from you ron are in switzerland in a bid to reach an agreement on the country's nuclear program before tuesday night's deadline. it looks as if we are nearing the end game on this initial round. if there is a balance of putting too much in writing and leaving

so much for people to pick over isn't it? >> that is one of the concerns it both sides are saying the other has got tough decisions to make it both putting the onus on the other one to make more concessions. i expect that in any negotiations. you try to get the best deal possible for your own constituency in exchange for offering as little as possible. the world powers at the security council plus germany want a tougher deal when it comes to you ron's nuclear program, particularly when it comes to the amount of uranium that iran is allowed to enrich. in exchange, he wants to stagger sanctions. you wants the sanctions scrapped as quickly as possible and exchange for making as few concessions as possible. have gotten tilt more night to reach an agreement for the various comments that you hear from the various prime minister's. it could go either way.

looks like it could go down to the wire. >> tell us this, what is at stake? for iran it is to have sanctions lifted for that -- sanctions lifted. for the rest in the west, they seem to be jockeying to move to some kind of more normal relationship with you ron went -- with iran. >> there's a huge amount at stake. yet that the foreign ministers of china russia they united states, britain, france, and i ran around the negotiating table shows you how important these negotiations are. from that iranian respect if the key for them is basing to be an international pariah. they want sanctions lifted.

it has cost them aliens of dollars in lost revenue. -- billions of dollars in lost revenue did they want to trade with the world once more. they want to get back to the printer of trading relationship they had -- back to the trading relationship they had. the obama administration wants to notch up a big foreign policy victory or achievement, if you like. there is no peace between israel and the palestinian spirit if you could get some kind of deal with iran -- this is the framework deal that tomorrow night's deadline relates to. the definitive deadline is in the summer. the u.s. administration would be happy to grab that deal. they have been keen to point out that they will walk away from any bad deal. >> thank you. let's see what news breaks over

the next 24 hours. your see. >> -- thank you. >> let's have a look at the top stories. china's central bank chief has said the rate has fallen too fast and policymakers have room to respond. they have forecasted further monetary easing. japan's industrial production fell in february. 3.4%. the weakest since june. it adds to pressure from the drop in consumer spending. in france, former president sarkozy made gains in elections. voters expressed anger at president france a hollande -- francois hollande. and earthquake struck off pop in the guinea -- papa new guinea.

the warning has been lifted. >> join the conversation with caroline and i this monday morning. 6:18 a.m. in london. never has the market ever been ever in history of data been so short of euros pretty like it you some sense of what is going on on the greek story. not sure what you treated. join as pit we are there live -- join us there. we are line. -- live. >> indeed. the country could see more stimulus. we break it down for you. please stay with us. ♪

>> and ed miliband. we bring in the first interview of the date right here. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." tiny stocks are rallying to the central bank -- china stocks are rallying.

the slightest whiff coming from the people's bank of china, that growth might fade a bit. the us stocks are roaring. +++ the best in 2015.

>> right. the nation's growth tumbled a bit too much. china does have the room to respond to that. further monetary easing is on the way for china both in interest rates as well as quantitative easing -- let's take a look at what he also said. they will be looking hard. they need to be vigilant. they will see if deflation is going to happen or not. analysts are expecting more interest rates cuts as well as a cut in those triple r's. let's talk about the reaction overall. stocks were heading to the biggest gain this year. some local fund managers scheme seems to be trying quality shares ahead of the stock in a. on friday, we learned more about the new policies coming out from that regulators. we also saw big movers. infrastructure stocks. financial shares. some of the biggest movers today. china can still offer asian nations trade and investment opportunities. as well as an asian infrastructure investment bank that they think could help bolster the economy.

>> at think the other thing that many people locust in on -- focused in as well -- this is one of the big issues, isn't it? they are inching towards not exactly free float, but a more relaxed view on the currency. >> that is right. adding more speculation that they do want this in the reserved basket. i also want to talk about this index. before he even took the spot, he talked about how he measured gdp growth not buy this numbers. he said those numbers were men made. he wanted to look at three different things. bank lending, a change in that

rail freights, and electricity consumption. when you look at the index, growth is under 4%. it is below the 7%+ ddp the nation has seen. the same pace as the u.s. economy. >> aegon, thank you -- if yvonne thank you. >> coming up, the corporate angle on numbers. down 20% in terms of profits. >> absolutely. >> movements in asia. middle east and japan starting to improve. >> i will get you one for your birthday. more in a minute on bloomberg. don't go anywhere.

♪

>> you are watching "countdown" this monday morning. let's see how the dollar is performing. this is right in the middle of tried to make a decision on where it wants to go and continue to rise. janet yellen spoke late on friday evening and telling the market you're probably going to see rates rise in 25th team. it probably won't be like any other cycle of rate rises in recent times.

it didn't exactly explode the dollar. the question that one needs to ask itself is whether that huge push in the dollar is overdone and whether we have priced in what is going to happen. it is jobs day. what may be the first to tell you it will be wrong in your ears between now and friday. 245 is the number that is expected. that is the dip from last month. the dollar is up i a third of 1%. have a look at the euro. the euro is coming up a little bit lower. greece will deliver a proposal as we hear from constant. what will they deliver? we have got 82-week rally. the euro -- 1%. 14 of its major peers. the market has positioned itself

absolutely to the balance on the dime side. the market is betting against the euro. it is a record short position. that is according to the cftc. keep an eye on the yen. have got that little bit. i mean, it has moved. it is a must like a radio voice on your iphone or cell phone. 119.19 is where we are. the debate will be we are next. the cap telling you -- i kept telling about this opportunity that was trying to get through this 120 level and failing and has done for number of occasions. does that mean that more connotative easing is well

priced in? caroline, back to you. >> is get a check on the top stars -- let's get a check on the top stories. goldman sachs international paid its employees on average about over $537,000. it has cut them out revenue has paid a plea since the financial crisis. -- employees since the financial crisis. they will invest as much as 5%. so take a holding in a new stock trading venue. and under service attacks. the san francisco-based service that helps program share ideas says last night it is detecting

attack traffic. it may be an attempt by china. china central bank chief says the nation's rate has fallen too far. the statement was broadcasted for further monetary easing. >> let's talk about the corporate impact in china. it is in fact in luxury goods makers. deborah aiken joins us. i caught up with you at another part of the building. what is going on? a drop in profit. >> mostly yeah.

you have to look at europe and the context of currency implication from last year. china is still negative. the second half in q4 is less negative. >> right. >> in terms of china, it is in hong kong that seems to be the sticking point? >> it is. if we look at the numbers, i think tourists were down. when you look at product numbers you could see -- >> presumably.

the currency is the big issue here is a europe? >> -- big issue here. is it europe? >> the currency following the currency. where you can get more for your money. absolutely. tiffany said 40% of sales are from tourists. that was down significantly. you saw difficulty with the u.s. dollar and what was happening at tiffany's elsewhere. a huge performance from european countries. tourists expected to come in. there's a lot going on in terms

of where terse are moving. >> how long do these trends ride out for? perhaps the easing we're seeing in china or hong kong. >> it depends brand by rand and how quickly -- brand and how quickly they are bringing in new products. as manus said they didn't have enough accessories at the lower price point. below $500 were seeing more difficulty. they will bring out new products at those levels. >> what is the risk? what you have got is -- if you see someone else walking down the road with a product bag that is $500 and you pay $2000 suddenly that unique experience

of owning a very luxury product dissipates or am i being snobbish? [laughter] don't answer that one. [laughter] >> it is about the brand managing across different price points and categories within the price points. they have done it for a long time. >> they do it well. >> absolutely. we can move from having seen what has happened with kate spade and tory burch and michael ckors. the aspiration all end -- as pirational end. in terms of accessories and scarves and beauty being brought in as well, so much going on. >> burberry.

>> absolutely. and also i comment that -- a co mment that l'oreal made. we will use that to be much more effective in the u.s. this year. >> that should be the core point. europe and the european providers really have got a lot more efficient. >> absolutely. the have worked hard to manage a difficult situation. we have seen that in the u.s. i think you're going to see a lot more. their evaluations -- even comments out in the market. there's so much they can do with their money and what will

happen. it will be interesting. >> deborah, thank you for putting that into context. our luxury goods analyst at bloomberg intelligence. >> africa's largest economy and biggest oil producer nigeria, has presidential elections this weekend. the official results are still unannounced. some are calling the vote rigged . what is the latest for us? >> thank you. according to most of the observers, it was generally peaceful. i myself went from polling station to polling station. it seemed quite peaceful except for some technical issues that arose from the new biometric card readers which led to the one-day extension of voting. there was some tension.

tensions are high in an oil-producing state. they asked for an annulment. they said voting was rigged. we will be watching that situation closely. when it comes to the results all eyes are on the electoral commission. they say results will begin at a rental p.m. today -- 12 p.m. today. >> tell us a little bit about that candidates. >> yes. it was a very contentious election. edge area does have a legacy of political violence. the 57 old has been in power for years. the democratic party has ruled for the past 16 years. they have never been challenged until now.

a 72-year-old former military dictator took power in 1983 after a military coup. this a be his fourth consecutive time running for president. what some are wearing is that both sides -- looks like it will be a close result. nigeria is somehow divided along religious and ethnic lines. to put it simply, the two of them represent that divide. president jonathan is a christian from the south. the general is a muslim from the north. >> representing very different parts of the country. this comes at a very challenging time. what do these particular issues mean? >> you are right. new jersey economy have a tough time. what it means is these are some

of the top issues the next president will have to deal with. let me talk to about some of the issues. falling oil prices. political uncertainty. when we look at oil prices, about two thirds of government revenue comes from oil. walling oil prices will heavily continue -- following well prices will heavily impact nigeria's economy. the next president will have his hands full with the economy. on the other hand, no it and groups are leading a bloody insurgency in the northeast where they control some areas. in the past four years, certain groups have killed over 5000 people. these are some of the major issues in nigeria right now. >> thank you for breaking that

down. >> join the conversation on twitter. caroline is there. i'm there also. caroline is focused on u.k. property here at the london property. >> the south bank. >> loving a bit of london. up next, 38 days to go before the u.k. elections it would look at the party strategies. stay with "countdown" on the election. ♪

>> welcome back to "countdown." prime minister david cameron set the whole of his tory party campaign. ed miliband spoke to activists. have a listen. >> i know what this world needs. frankly, i don't think ed miliband is it. some people that say, don't make this personal. when it comes to who is prime minister, the personal is national. the guy who forgot to mention the deficit could be the one in

charge of our whole economy. the man who is too weak to stand up to the trade unions at home will be the one facing down our enemies abroad. the leader who thinks leadership is climbing aboard the latest bandwagon could be the one making those make or break calls in the middle of the night. >> also coming up, we hear from labor leader ed miliband did he will unveil his manifesto . we will bring in his first interview of the day following that speech. >> joining us now for a look at the competing party strategies a previous labour media chief and advisor to tony blair p is now an independent hit thank you for coming in. >> thank you. >> we were just listening to david cameron suddenly going on this calling labor hopeless and

sneering socialists. having a go at ed. right strategy or what do you make of it? >> i think david cameron had a bad week from the publicity of round his pronouncing his departure from the election. he hasn't won yet is disappointing performance in the debate and the mr. shenanigans append to get rid of the speaker in parliament. david cameron had to do something to gain initiative back. virtually he decided to go personal. i hope it is not a tone of the campaign to computex a gable turn voters off. people want to know what you will do if you get elected and not just dispatch the other side. >> we have ed miliband trying to woo. bringing up parts of his manifesto dedicated to business. is that the right tactic? >> sure.

i think there is big core agenda around the issues of europe immigration, and skills. i think that should be part of the campaign. i think it should have been more. in terms of making that appeal -- ultimately when voters are looking at judging the parties on economic credibility, they hear the parties throwing numbers backwards and forwards. they also listen to what significant leaders say. >> isn't it a concern? how much can they offer? they will cap bonuses. reversing cuts in corporate taxation's. there is an much to give apart from the referendum. >> i think the eu referendum is not to be dismissed. it is a big deal. i think there is a broader agenda as well. ed is saying what businesses are

saying. responsible capitalism and so on. it seems to be making a contribution. i don't think the two agendas are mutually exclusive. of course you have issues of tax come up and so on. i think the labor approach needs to be around that. >> i'm looking here. 20 were interviewed. the truth of the is and bill have any chances of forming a government, this is what businesses are most worried about. not just signs. >> sure. also in scotland, you get points are bashing the city of london. that is inevitable. i don't want to see a labor snp

coalition. whatever the outcome -- who knows? >> if you have this minority government whether it is tory or labor they need to do a pact with the snp. >> it all depends on the relative size of the snp and liberal democrats. return the two of them come it will determine which way the numbers fall. there are people in both parties who are trying to go for a minority government and seeing how that goes. >> you used to work for tony blair. what would you be telling ed miliband to be doing in terms of media coverage and fending off personal attacks that are coming from the likes of david cameron? >> he has got great personal

resilience. ultimately what ed needs to do is make or who doesn't get drawn down to david cameron's level. he's got to give a sense of what would be different about written after five years of the labor government? that is his challenge. make sure that people can imagine him going through that door number 10. >> and the catch phrase -- hell yes. it is so unrealistic. hell yes. [laughter] >> i'm not sure he will be repeating it. >> you could try to get him to do it. [laughter] good to have you with a spirit as you say, nothing is decided yet. the polls have yet to say -- one was in the morning.

do you believe in the polls at all? >> the polls show the race is too close to call. they will bounce around a bit. i don't think either party will have a massive breakthrough. the groundwork getting voters out -- >> great. we have got a long way. thank you. >> stay with us. ed miliband be visiting bloomberg later in the day to unveil his manifesto. we'll bring in his first interview of the day. >> at this time of the day, i'm about to turn around and pick up a digi pic. have you got yours? >> i have. london. asian investors. we had the in breaking news.

>> yes. >> a key player is going into london. they are paying millions of pounds for a development. they are also holding hands with other players. hotel properties. it is showing the missing london is the favorite -- they are saying london is the favorite when it comes to putting assets to work, take literally from asia. -- particularly from asia. >> this debate -- a minority government or a european referendum? or reduce the appeal of london as an investment? it has become the most trendy

almost as trendy as where you live and perhaps almost as expensive. i have gone for cars. 22. honda gaeve this 22 year old the opportunity to design their next hope for the future car. it is a roadster. the small zippy car. it is about designing. unlike other japanese companies come age and education don't mean anything at honda. there you go. you be 400 other competitors. the car will cost around $16,000. what a phenomenal opportunity. >> wow.

all about the youth and inspiration. "countdown" continues in the next hour. we go right to athens. stay with us. ♪

manus: miliband's for europe. the kickoff's his campaign was a true businesses and the the with a business and the eu. caroline: jim he unlocked the bailout and keep promised -- karen he unlocked the bailout and keep promises to voters? manus: more stimulus could be in the cards.

caroline: welcome to countdown. also coming up, another deal deadlocked over iran's nuclear programs. iranian and western diplomats give differing accounts of what is needed to reach an accord 48 hours from the self-imposed deadline. manus: the british prime minister will go before the country today before in brussels to update -- greek's prime minister will go before the country today after noon in brussels. caroline: we have been following all of the developments. hans, deadlines looming.

hardly going to satisfy the creditors -- are they going to satisfy the creditors? hans: the key question is will it be enough to get some of the left over bailout. what we have is some sense of what they want to which is that they are assuming a great deal of economic growth and they want to raise 3 billion in tax revenue. $2.5 billion come from the property taxes, the same tax inhe railed against. they also want to extend the value-added tax. two concessions. the list of proposed reforms does not have anything on the labor market or pension reform. that is something that in germany they want to see something done.

this is what he said in the interview with real news, he said there is no prospect of taking recessionary measures whether cutting wages or liberalizing regulation on mass dismissals. we do have deadlines coming up on wednesday, when they have to have the final list submitted to creditors in brussels. the next day they haven't ecb meeting. -- have an ecb meeting. we have seen them do that at frankfurt. and then later we have the euro payment due to the imf. there are crucial payments in the week thereafter. 1.4 billion and treasury bills will need to be rolled over. on friday we did have fitch come out and say that greece presents

a substantial credit risk and there is a 72% chance that they reneg. earlier in the month it was 67%. there is a question as to whether they will be allowed to refinance the t-bills and how healthy the greek banks are. caroline: a phenomenal amount of debt, have him euros worth -- 8 billion euros worth. -- have over a trill -- half of a trillion euros worth. manus: the started your is cold and the -- starter gun is pulled

and cameron has dissolved parliament. >> the biggest risk is the eu exit. this is the full-page ad, the first step in wooing the business lobby. they will be here today to take the plunge and focus it around commitments on your. -- europe. torries plunged and -- pl;edged and in/out referendum. this could resume positively by many in the business community but we are likely to your other things. -- your other things particularly around labor day. -- labor tax.

we do you carry are going to see corporations tax folder 20% of this week -- fall 220% this week/ other details we are likely to hear, they want to take some action on wages, employees on renumeration committees,ta tax breaks for living wages. that is what the labour party is doing. on the conservative side of things we are going to hear from david cameron later on today and he will dissolve governm -- dissolve parliament. it is part of the parliamentary. manus: with a helicopter. anna: there will be flags" and circumstances. caroline: -- and pomp and

the circumstances. caroline: he was getting a personal with ed miliband. anna: they look according to the most recent polls to increase standing in westminster. the lead in edinburgh but they will make great strides and nicholas is calling on the labour party to stand with the s&p to do everything it takes to keep conservatives out of downing street. >> if there is a whole parliament, smg will vote to stop a tory government getting off the ground. i call on labor today to match that pledge, to make clear that if labor and snp have more

votes they will join in a vote of confidence to lock david cameron out of downing street. anna: use all the main parties margin -- you saw the three parties marching onto each other's patchses. ed miliband is talking to business and david cameron is talking about the national health service. things started to get personal and this is what david cameron was saying. prime minister david cameron: i know what this little needs and frankly i do not think that ed miliband has it. some people might say do not make this personal but when it comes to his prime minister, the personal is national. the god who forgot to mention the deficit could be -- guy who

forgot to mention the deficit could be in charge of the economy. the leader who thinks that leadership is climbing aboard the latest bandwagon, it could be the one making the make or break goals in the middle of the night -- calls in the middle of the night. caroline: the question overnight was if we were going to see any impact and it seems like we have mixed reactions in the polling. manus: it has gone from cameron trupmed to labour trumped. anna: we had ita poll showing that labor had a bounce but then we have a whole overnight that showed the opposite, that the conservatives are ahead. polls are not compatible with each other, they are best compared with each other.

you have to go with the history. to put a party in a four-point lead is significant because it has been so tight. there are other players, the last one showed the two parties are tied at 34% each. before that they showed labor ahead. the bigoted conservatives a two-point lead. -- then they gave conservatives a two-point lead. we are not seeing anything that we can hang our hats on predicting election results. manus: i was standing on the treadmill pluged in, and i thought, what do you do when you get the polls in? that is my sunday morning on the treadmill looking at the polls. ed miliband of course his party

pledge will be right here at bloomberg. his commitment to keeping the u.k. in the european union we will renew that speech and after midday we will have the first interview with the labor leader. caroline: we will be speaking to all of the major parties in the run-up to the general election. right now let's just give a little bit because foreign ministers from iran are in switzerland to work on the framework deal ahead of the tuesday night deadline. elliott will have more for us. both sides are saying that the other one needs to make tough choices. elliott: it is very interesting that they are both paraphrasing one another but let's not forget that these are negotiations. when you enter in the negotiations of any kind you want to get the best deal for your own constituency in

exchange for the minimum amount of concessions. they want to have the toughest regime possible when it comes to iran's nuclear program when it comes to research and development and the amount of enrichment in exchange for staggering the sanctions later on. iran wants the sanctions scrapped as quickly as possible and wants to make as few concessions as possible and reality. got until tomorrow night to reach the deadlines. when you listen to the comments being made -- they have got until tomorrow night to reach the decisions. when you listen to the comments being made it seems like it could go either way at this stage and it could go down to the wire of tomorrow night's deadline. caroline: they did make sure for what is at stake -- paint a picture of what is at stake because for iran it is the economy.

elliott: there are a huge amount of stakes for everyone involved. you have the members of the permanent members of the security council, china and france and germany and iran's ministers there to #the deal, -- hash out the deal. from iran it is about not only the economy, although that has cost them 100 $20 billion in lost revenues. it wants to be able to trade freely with the world -- $120 billion in lost revenues. it wants to be able to create freely with the world and not to be a pariah. european companies are queing up to get in and the obama administration wants to have a big foreign-policy achievement to say that they got that on his watch. it will not be used with the

israelis and palestinians. if you can get a deal with iran bring it from a revolutionary state to a normal one, that is something they would be keen to do although they say they will not accept a bad deal if only that is on the table. caroline: the clock is ticking for the deadline. thank you very much indeed. manus: let's get you up to date with some of the bloomberg top stories. the chief has said that the growth rate has fallen to far and policymakers have room to respond. this forecasts monetary easing. japan's production fell more than forecast. the weakest figures since june. there is a drop in consumer spending and faltering inflation. in france, former president nicolas sarkozy and the national

front made games in the -- james in the national election. -- gains in the national election. at a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck just off the coast of court, new guinea this morning. -- papua new guinea. caroline: you can join the conversation with both of us this morning, let us know what you think about the show and what you want to hear about. looking at effects, read bets on the euro, record high -- the bets on the euro, record highs. manus: the deadline for greece comes hard. we will look at the details and what the issues are. stay with "countdown." ♪

caroline: welcome back. let's talk greece. for six years struggling, they are short of funds. they might run out of cash in a matter of weeks. keeping in mind that nobody has left the euro, take a look at what might happen.

the next steps range from standing in the euro to catastrophic divorce. the greek prime minister will have to accept austerity in exchange for loans. without cash, how long will the government last? if no compromise is reached, bailouts will still. that means -- stall. that means capital control. this could be the start of a new coalition involving pro-european partners. or the populists may respond badly and force the government to put a new currency. the weakened economy forces banks to default and the country is left in financial limbo. greece leaves the euro in a messy default. no help is offered to support a new currency. banks collapsed.

a new depression forces europe into recession. manus: let's stay with greece. today is the deadline for the reform proposals. greece could access 1.4 billion euros allocated for the banking system. hans is the head of global strategy at morgan stanley. great to have you with us this morning. this really is crunch time in terms of what northern european partners will tolerate in terms of doing a deal with c yprus. hans: this has an impact on the currency market and on the rate expectations going forward but talking about the forex market as long as there is uncertainty about the future of greece that

is a negative for the euro itself and it will drag it lower. you could see it in the release of the positioning on the imf positioning were you have a record euro short position. what i think is very crucial, if there would be a decision that maybe greece would have to leave, the question is what would happen thereafter because that is going to determine the medium-term trend of the euro. if you would have greece taken out of the currency zone you would have no political response to that end the euro would decline further simply because it would turn the euro into a block of fixed exchange rates. you need to have a roadmap to make sure this is not going to happen. you need to have a step towards a political union.

you have to strengthen political institutions in europe. in european politician's the one about this and that actually means that in the forefront of the uncertainty is the selling pressure. you have to expect a policy response to that, a political response, positive headlines. caroline: is that your best case scenario, that greece would leave? hans: it is not because they have a commitment. for the northern european policy leaders the question is is greece trying to monetize? do they try to say, if you want to keep us with you then you have to pay? of course that would not be tolerated by northern european countries. you would have a situation in which the two sides would not understand each other so you would have a sleepwalking process were gre -- where

greece would be walking out of the currency union. that situation cannot be totally excluded but on the basis situation that greece will stay in the currency union. to be perfectly clear greece staying in the union is more negative for the euro than alternative situation where greece would be out and you would have as a result a political response, a roadmap towards a political union in europe and strengthening of institutions. manus: and that is what pimco was saying but we are miles away from that. hans: we are running a suboptimal currency union because we are not on the way to political union and people do not see that happening. we need another event to push us in that direction. manus: we have a limited period

of time, the dollar correction is near completion. friday evening, rates may be raised in 2015. but the cycle will be unlike anything. what does that mean? han the incentive backs: -- hans: the incentive bank wants to because shows. there is a gap between what they are telling us and what the market says the radios. you start hugging -- rate is. you start hiking the rate to what is indicated by the dots, that might be a violent adjustment. mrs. yellen is trying to make sure there is a volatility control. when the central bank is hiking interest rates in the case of

the united states, bearing in mind that 63% of international loans are in dollars and therefore 63% of loans become more expensive that by itself is a volatile event and to keep the volatility control may be one of the main things that she may have in mind. caroline: you are bullish on the dollar, the euro will be under pressure. tell us about the pound. ed miliband is trying to woo bu siness. i thought that was an interesting take about foreign direct investment. hans: we did see the strange happening in the third quarter -- this change happening in the third quarter. we were in a convenient situation where the u.k. was

funding and longtime capital flows. we are more dependent on the effectiveness of the market and it is still more attractive. for the election. and -- election period and after the government is formed, we offer to veterans. what are we going -- two things. our corporate taxes going up significantly? -- are corporate taxes going up significantly? that would increase when related. -- owner ability. -- owner ability -- vul nerability. the other thing is do we have a referendum and i think the majority is staying in the club.

the economic roadmap of a future government, that is super important especially when we are vulnerable. manus: it is always great to have you. ♪

manus: you're watching countdown and it is time for a check in india and exchange markets. how will the markets look? a bit of a push with janet yellen saying you will see a rate cycle and when they begin to tighten it will not be like a cycle in recent times. the doctor -- dollar is reasserting the uptrend and that is the best case scenario, the dollar trading at 97.54.

dying ever so slightly. the jobs data will have to catch up. the dollar up by a .25%. dollar higher, euro is reciprocally lower. we just have that conversation with morgan stanley and they were saying the outcome from greece today, they are delivering proposals in terms of raising additional revenues 1.5%. the cases this, according to morgan stanley greece staying is a negative for the euro. the euro would go lower through 2015, maybe below parity for next year.

greece exiting the euro was not the best case scenario but this is ongoing in the destinations -- machinations between staying in going. the market is a record short based on data from the united states, one of the key exchanges record short bets to decline. dollar up yen ticking slightly as industrial production drops the weakest since june 2014. dollar up, yen down. caroline: thank you. check in on the top stories we are covering this hour. the european goldman sachs group says that compensation costs fell last year. still at $3 billion though. the employee is on average just over $537000 -- they pay

employees on average just over $537,000. they are trying to meet higher capital requirements. deutsche bank is holding stakes in new indian markets being developed by bombay. they are investing in the planned commodity exchange and will take a holding in the new stock trading venue. the u.s. computer programmer website has been under a denial of service attack. the company that allows the sharing of ideas for software development says that it is deflecting most traffic. the "wall street journal" says that this might be an attack by china over censorship policies. manus: nigeria hosted presidential elections this weekend. the main opposition party is

calling the vote rigged. we are joined from legos. we have been following the story over the weekend. reading about the election, it was delayed and there were accusations that the technology was not up to scratch. goodluck jonathan himself was delayed in voting. big issues. >> like you mentioned, goodluck jonathan had to wait 15 minutes to get his vote in and the reason was there were technical issues on the new biometric readers the commission was using. uche: this offer to the one-day extension of voting into sunday. according to most of the observers it was peaceful. i myself want from polling

station for polling station and it was a peaceful process altogether. we did see tengion rise in -- tension rise. the opposition has asked for an annulment as a result of allegations that saturday's ballot had been rigged. protesters plan to march tonight. we are watching the situation closely. when it comes to the results we have not heard numbers just yet. they say the coalition -- collation will begin and results are expected to come out tomorrow. manus: give me a bit more flavor on the candidates. goodluck jonathan is facing off against an next extender -- and accidents t -- an ex-dictator.

uche: goodluck jonathan has room for years and this will be one of the closest elections. his opponent is a former military dictator who our after a military coup. this is his fourth consecutive time running for president. what voters do find worrying is that both sides are strong about thinking they will win so it looks like it will be a close result. nigeria is divided along religious and ethnic lines and i will put it simply, the presidents represent that divide. jonathan is a christian to the self and his opponent is from the north. there are fears in the country there is a legacy of political violence. with the different candidates we are walking -- it is a contentious election so we are watching how people react. manus: bloomberg africa's uche.

caroline: elections closer to home, campaigning for the u.k. general election officially kicks off today. prime minister david cameron has said the tone of the tory party cap and an attack on labor party leader ed miliband -- party campaigned with an attack on labor party leader ed miliband. prime minister david cameron: some people might say do not make this personal. but when it comes to who is prime minister, the personal is national. the guy who forgot to mention the deficit would be in charge of the whole economy. the man who is too weak to stand up to trade unions at home could be the one facing down enemies

abroad. the leader who thinks leadership is climbing aboard the latest bandwagon could be the one making the make or break calls in the middle of the night. caroline: sonia o'donnell is our westminster reporter. you have been on the road and that you can be watching here later today -- now you can be watching here later today. how are the campaigns stacking up? sonia: people are expecting a repetition of the top lines we have heard so far. what cameron is saying exemplifies what the tories are focusing on. leadership being ed miliband is not up to the job. report rate him as being in alex salmond's market. because of the numbers, and unofficial alliance with the snp. labor is interesting because

they tried to win over with the launch of the business manifesto. under ed miliband of the relationship with business has not been great and that is putting it mildly. we had a series of attacks from business leaders saying he is antibusiness trying to bring britain back to the 1970's style economy and today that is his pitch to convince them that labor has other plans in europe, fighting against the referendum is one of the main lines in which he will do so. manus: that kind of eu referendum, labor would maintain that is what will keep business distracted and foreign investment away. it will be a real repellent. and that cameroon raising the potential for serving a second german calling it a day began -- second term and calling it a day. svenja: it is an interesting

issue because if you look at p olls, europe is not the top of the issues that comes up. immigration, the economy, the nhs. but for business leaders europe is at the forefront of their concerns when they look at this election not knowing who will form the next government because the polls are stark. the fact that there might be a referendum is delaying investment decision to some and making the climate cautious. caroline: you are going to be traveling for the next 38 days. it will be a long time for you. thank you for being on the beat in terms of westminster. manus: stay with us because the labor leader ed miliband will be here.

he has a manifesto for british business and we will bring you his first interview of the day right here on bloomberg. caroline: we will be speaking with members of all of the main political parties in the run-up to the election will stop did you date, may 7. manus: join the conversation on twitter. ♪

manus: the greek prime minister will go before the parliament. cyprus will update lawmakers on talks. it'd interview over the weekend he warned that he will not cross red lines by cutting wages or pensions. let's go to athens for our reporter. it us an update -- give us an update. >> they are taking measures they call them red lines. he says it looks primarily with the surplus and an additional collection of caribbean revenues. officials say that the list is somewhat inadequate and big, far

from the-benefit analysis they are looking for with a timeframe for when they will go to parliament to be voted for. it seems that this week or even the next is unlikely and this creates a big problem because as everybody knows greece has a cash crunch and it is worse everyday. there is 1.4 8 billion euros and half of that is foreign investors so the government will have to cover that. on the ninth there is an imf loan repayment. at the same time, on april the eighth. this will create much more uncertainty in greece and i

expect deposit outflows to keep rising. the system has lost almost 30 billion euros this year and i do not know how much longer it will have support to be able to stay afloat. this is rising every day and i think we have wasted too much time. we have not tackle the essence of the problem and it is one of those cases where we have failed to prepare and it is preparing to fail. manus: let's see whether the european institutions to accept the proposals. caroline: let's stay with greece and get an investor's take. with us is stephen:. wonderful to have you on the show. what is your best case scenario? are we going to keep on

fighting take it to the wire and just manager? -- manage it? stephen: that is the base outlined, the compromise that as soon as you get into the details you realize how far apart people are. the pressure is building very, very quickly on greece to deliver more, the reforms so far have been not enough and that is a big challenge for them. they are trying to get the go-to move will retain a vestige of the mandate and that is very hard because they are very far apart. we are steadily moving towards something that will at least get everyone comfortable that we can keep greece and. it is obviously not a great situation. manus: one of the articles that was written by one of our editors is that qe has more bang

for its buck in the market than u.s. or japanese qe, that government bonds have sllumpoumped, and equity markets are cranking. stephen: i think it has have a bigger -- had a bigger impact in some ways. the bigger impact is on the bond market does the qe -- because the market is much bigger than the u.s. so they are buying more than the growth that we can expect over the 12 months. that has had a huge technical impact on government bonds, pushing assets towards it. when you look at the markets germany, 20 basis points, that is qe. some of the other markets

around, although we have seen money going into them, on a relative spread basis they have not done that well. biting the rumor of qe am selling the fact has worked to an extent. it has compounded a number of factors that have driven european equities up and another of those is the drop in the oil price and the drop in the euro in the middle of last year and the final one is the fact that the european economic base has improved and has been better than the very very low expectations in december. caroline: our european equities still what you are attracted to -- are european equities still what you are attracted to? stephen: we continue to see money flowing back into europe. the warning signs for us that we need to be focused on, number one, valuations. caroline: 20%?

stephen: hundred percent load in the index. we need to see that come through. analyst revisions have been -- 20% move in the index. we need to see that come through. investors have gone from being bearish to be overweight and we need to be cautious about positioning. caroline: stay with us, we will be moving the conversation. manus: a shot of the city. where do you want to put your money? is it great, is it dull? caroline: pensive, hopeful. manus: we will go with hopeful. ♪

manus: welcome back to "countdown." she's investment strategist stephen at black rock. i know that you are quite keen on cars or autos. now you are switching. autos were up 30%, expanding. banks, pulled performance but

you say that could get going. stephen: good reasons, they had a challenging 2014. in february, greece performed a rule, having performed well with qe coming. greece is a wildcard but broadly we are seeing a catch up trend with the dax and improvement in the economy. caroline: you are looking financially related corporate debt. stephen: that has been a view for quite a long time basically because the banks are in a deleveraging mode. deleveraging is slowing after the stress tests but that requires more capitalization and strengthening of balance sheets and that is good for the structure. manus: how worried are you about

equity markets? because our lead story on equities was 28 days, the longest stretch of losing back-to-back. is the edifice cracking in the united states? stephen: the u.s. is challenged by a couple of things, we have been cautious on the u.s.. it is not a cheap market corporate profits are showing any sign of slowing if you look at the forecast and you have the larger economy in the world where you get a rate hike for the first time in many years. none of that is particularly positive for us. it has been a case of not necessarily saying that the u.s. bull market is over but there is better opportunity elsewhere. caroline: that would be japan. stephen: europe is ongoing but there are good arguments about japan. manus: stephen, chief investment strategist over at black rock.

thank you so much. caroline: on the move is up next, focusing on emerging markets after the presidential elections in nigeria. and of course we will be covering the u.k. election campaign which kicks off today. ♪

anna: good morning everybody and welcome to on the move. we are just moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your morning brief. the people's bank of china signals concerns over growth and stocks store as the central bank governor opens the door to more stimulus. david cameron will dissolve parliament later today marking the official kickoff of the elections campaign. meanwhile, francois hollande's party has lost a portion of its department.

is greece any closer to getting those much-needed funds? that is what we're watching this morning. will the equity markets get a little bit of a boost? let's get to manus cranny. manus: european equities are set. a slightly higher opening. all eyes and ears will be what on tsipras presents. it is a bit like a nuclear war. actually doing it would be so disastrous that they won't. that is letting greece exit the eurozone. we had a conversation this morning on "countdown," saying the worst-case scenario is keeping greece inside this grouping of the eurozone. in many ways what is needed is a political union and we are so far from that. echoing the