mark: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm mark crumpton. this is "out of line," the intersection of business and economics with a main street -- this is "bottom line" the intersection of business and economics with a means street perspective. to our viewers in the united eighth and those joining us from around the world, welcome. we have full coverage of the stock and stories taking headlines on this monday. scarlet fu takes us off the charts and a look at insider selling head of earnings. and peter cook has the latest as

the obama administration looks to sell the iran nuclear deal. but first, the top stories we are following. let's show you how the equity markets are doing. the intraday chart shows the s&p 500 is up nearly a full percentage point, trading at 2085. the dow jones industrial average also up new in full percent. in 164 point gain. and the nasdaq composite index is up three quarters of a percent at 4925. the price of oil is rising today. two possible causes first iran's nuclear agreement to make it clear when the country could start selling oil again on the open market. and second, saudi arabia has raise prices for shipping to -- shipments to asia, because it sees global demand rising. and california governor jerry brown warns that a drop me not be limited to his state. california drought is now in its fourth year and the governor

haslam account and cities to reduce water consumption by 25% also he tells abc news it's not just a california problem. governor brown: remember, the weather that is happening in california, that weather will be reflected and show up in other parts of the world. i can tell you for california climate change is not a hoax. we are dealing with it and it is serious. mark: governor brown said the order does not apply to farmers who use 80% of california's water supply. he said they are not frivolously loot -- using water on their lawns or taking long showers. the pace of interest rate increases is "likely to be shallow "in other words the fed is likely to move slowly. dudley said the weakness in the economy will probably be temporary. another sign that the biggest part of the u.s. economy is

holding up, service industries grew in march at about the same pace as the month before. those industries include retail, utilities, health care, and finance. it accounts from 90% of the u.s. economy. an appeal is underway on north carolina voting rules. for now, justices refused to approve republican backed voter restrictions that could shape the elections. they want to eliminate same day registration and out of precinct voting. president obama is in sales note. he's trying to sell the iran nuclear deal to a skeptical congress and to iran's nervous neighbors in the middle east. washington correspondent peter cook is at the white house with more on how the president is doing so far. peter, does it ministration think it is making progress? peter: i do think they think

they are making progress. the white house is pleased with the response they gotten so far to the iran nuclear deal. first they think the public reaction has been pretty good. the pope gave it his blessing given day. even the reaction from some sunni arab countries so far, any criticisms they have they kept those private as opposed to airing them publicly. the reaction from israel is not to be unexpected. we are hearing criticism from benjamin netanyahu. most significant perhaps, some key republicans in the congress who might have the lead to stand in the way of the steel has been -- have been limited in what they said. bob corker says he wants to see a deal ultimately. that kind of talk is something the white house finds encouraging at this point, but they know they have a very skeptical congress, as you said. mark: is the congress opposed to any deal?

peter: that will be the challenge. bob corker and others have said that congress needs to have a say in this in some form or fashion. the white house is not totally opposed. they do not want to see an up or down vote. the president said this has to do with presidential power and the precedent he talked about in the "new york times" over the weekend. president obama: my hope is that we can find something that allows congress to express itself, but does not encroach on traditional presidential prerogatives and ensures that if, in fact, we get a good deal, then we can implement it. peter: bottom line, it sounds like the president wants congress to have a say but he does not want to have any real impact. that will be the crux of the controversy as congress returns next week. it has been harder to have a coherent strategy of criticism

against the steel with lawmakers gone from town. mark: peter cook joining us from the white house. thank you. it lyrical strategist at -- a political strategist at potomac research group joins me now from washington. greg, welcome back to bottom line. good to see you again. do we in the media have this all wrong? is it possible that congress is closer to backing and iran nuclear deal than we had been reporting? greg: i think there is a key number and the number everyone has to focus on is 67. it takes 67 votes to override a presidential veto. as peter said, if there is a bill that goes to the white house that gives congress an up or down vote, the president will veto it, and i think he will get enough democrats probably to be sustained. it's a close call. but i thought a key development over the weekend, other than the

pope i guess, was dianne feinstein, a moderate democrat who is pretty hawkish on foreign policy said basically, the deal is a lot better than i thought it would be. if democrats like feinstein all into line, he can get enough votes to have his veto sustained. mark: let's look at the other side of the isle. can the senate foreign relations committee chairman bob corker sell this to his colleagues, and will he and president obama be able to work together to seal the deal? and as you know, since the president is prepared to fight to cement his foreign-policy legacy, how much political capital does senator corker have to use? greg: i think he has to use a lot. i have met with corker. he is pragmatic. he is not going along with all of these republicans are running for president, who are seeing if they can outdo each other with the most strident comments about this deal. you know, getting into benjamin

netanyahu territory. there are some republicans like corker who i think will give this a fair look. i think corker and president obama can work together. mark: what is the view on possible lifting of extinctions -- of sanctions on iran? greg: down the line, maybe late this year, you could see more supply of oil in the market. that is not a positive story for the industry. mark: bill bentley says the increase in the fed interest rate is in his words, likely to be shallow. he also said the future of the economy cannot easily anticipated. does this fly to the contrary of the fed dropping the word "patient" last month? greg, i think dudley is absolutely right.

it will be a very gradual policy. maybe after the first rate hike, probably in september, they might skip a meeting, they might skip two meetings. early next year, the fed could still be a 50 basis point. it will be a very gradual move upward, but i do think they've got to start doing something this year. and i think it's worth noting that anecdotal evidence, and now some real evidence, is starting to show that wages and inflation are starting to firm up a bit. i think that gives them an opening to move later this year. mark: you pointed out that the former fed vice chair donald: is not -- donald cohen is not fully ruling out a rate hike in june. this could be the first interest rate hike since 2006. what data will the fed be looking for in the may and april reports? greg: i think it's all about wages. if you start to see this creep up, that will be interesting. all over the country, we are

running out of skilled workers wages are going up. you look at mcdonald's, walmart but we have not quite seen it yet in the data. if the data starts to turn around the next two or three months, there is an outside chance that the fed could move in june. the safer bet, i think right now, it never. mark: let's get back to politics for a second. kentucky senator rand paul is expected to announce his candidacy for the republican nomination tomorrow. how do his fellow republicans view him? and will the shakeup the party? greg: he is well-liked by his party members. i thought he would really shake things up. he is an isolationist. he is a libertarian. he doesn't want the government to get into your business. oddly, he has shifted on a lot -- suddenly, he has shifted on a lot of his additions. he is in favor of robust spending and a more robust

foreign-policy. the rand paul that we all thought was going to run half a year ago has really toned it down. mark: very quickly, does he then moved to the right and try to outflank marco rubio or others who may be interested in the nomination? greg: it is crowded territory. that helps jeb bush. but there was a great piece on sunday to point out that while jeb bush is raising a lot of money, the reception to him within the party has been pretty tepid. mark: joining us from washington, greg, always a privilege. thanks for your time. coming up, more mondays top stories, plus analysis of the crude oil trade after the long weekend. the latin america report at -- from mexico, and former baseball pitcher rod dolling is at the ballpark in washington. -- ron darling is at the

ballpark in washington. all of that and more when "bottom line" continues in just a moment. ♪

mark: welcome back. there's speculation that the fighting in yemen may escalate. according to pakistani officials, the saudi led coalition fighting shiite rebels has led pakistani soldiers. that has raised speculation of a ground offensive. so far, they have only attacked from the air. the rebels the capital city aden, and they've both -- forced the saudi backed president to flee. greece is looking at a number of fronts today. the prime minister is heading to moscow to meet with vladimir putin. the prime minister wants russia to restrict greek food products. and the finance -- wants russia to stop restricting greek fruit products.

in the finance minister says the cash reserves are running out. a controversial story of a gang rape at university of virginia an outside review calls in a journalistic failure. the school says they fail to follow basic journalistic practice. rolling stone has asked columbia to review the story. the magazine said no one involved with the peas will be fired. a big jump in sales at tesla. electric carmaker, elon musk says it sold 10000 cars in the first quarter, a 55% increase from a year ago. they are on track to beat last year sales total. the company will come out with an electric suv in the second half of the year. coming up, we will look at comments from new york fed resident william dudley on the face of great interest -- interest rate increases.

at 2:30 p.m. alix steel will join me on the close of oil. and at 2:45 p.m., ron darling with his views on opening day. ♪

mark: welcome back. this is "bottom line" on bloomberg television. a hiccup in the jobs data may give federal reserve officials caused a safe ponder the right time -- pause as they ponder the right time for liftoff. one made the case for a cautious approach for raising financial rates. >> raising financial rates after

liftoff is just as important as the timing. here, expected to be rather shallow. prices the still in evidence, particularly in what we see for residential mortgage credit. mark: mr. dudley is the first of the bank's inner circle to speak publicly following the disappointing jobs report on friday. paul joins me in studio. he used a lot of nasa metaphors, it talking about liftoff. where's the launchpad? paul: the launchpad seems to be shifting to later this year, following the." in the jobs data. i don't subscribe to the view -- following the pic up in the jobs data. i don't subscribe to the view that there is a story here. it should have shown up in the

weather rather than a march numbers. it is hitting the export sector hard, but also domestic industry. we are seeing that increasingly popping up in surveys, like the isn survey and whatnot. and even dudley today acknowledged it as much in his speech, saying that the dollar will contract as much as .6% of a percentage point off of gdp growth this year. that is a resist angel reassessment of growth considering the currency move. mark: this boomerang is down to come around. paul: exactly. president dudley has been one of the more vocal component that a strong dollar is an indication. we have heard it from the chicago fed, and now president dudley at of the new york fed today. a lot of the fed members have been fairly dismissive saying it will hurt exporters but only with a transitory impact. i think now that they have seen this jobs report, they are

realizing it's going to be a more sustained impact on the economy and something they have to look at a lot more seriously. mark: mr. dudley use the term shallow. how do you define shallow? paul: it was interestingness speech today, because with this dot plot that if follows, even with the timing of the stock, they have been using the same rate increases about 120 five basis points per year. now we are seeing fed officials talking about a more shallow post liftoff policies. maybe that is the evolution in the. plot -- in the d.o.t. plot a slower pace. he made it very clear that the fed is going to tiptoe into rate normalization and will largely be dependent on the market reaction, how frequently they follow up with the rating. mark: so many dots it starting to look like a rorschach test.

how will the response to the fed actions determine the rate increases -- the pace of the rate increases? aren't the market already pricing in the moves this summer? paul: they are pricing in a june move toward september. that is not what he's talking about. he is looking at the broader rate transition. stocks for us, currency again, all of these factors. they want to see a gradual tightening of transitions. we basically see the dollar zooming stronger or a big swoon in the equity markets, then the fed will be quick about backing off and not following through with the subsequent hikes. on the other hand, if we have a greenspan conundrum, where the fed's height mean -- hiking rates, but we do not see the transition to the high-end of the yield curve, then we will have to be more aggressive. mark: did he signaled today that policymakers will have to work

through and not shocked the market karl: -- shocked the market? carl: he did signal that today. mark: mr. dudley also talked but inflation in his words, that it will move toward the end of the year. does that suggest that it will finally move toward the fed 2% threshold? carl: the fed is still at slightly low levels, almost half of where they were last year at this time. also, it depends on with the dollar is with a lot of consumer products. they do not need to see it necessarily a 2%, but have some confidence that it will head that way. mark: i've spoken to you pass -- twice in the past two days and you keep emphasizing the impact

the dollar will have on all of this. are not enough people paying attention to that? carl: i think a lot of forecasters, including some of the fed can have paid short trip to the dollar. last friday's jobs report served as a wake-up call to a lot of forecasters that it could have a significant economic impact. mark: were you surprised at the friday jobs number? carl: it was certainly a week report relative to what other people were anticipating. i look forward to the stronger dollar to start to materialize. an i thought maybe what happen in q2, i did not know as early as the march report. in hindsight, i relied, but the timing is everything. maybe a couple of more months -- i realized, but the timing is everything. and maybe a couple more months is what i thought. mark: coming up, plenty of oil out there. what does it mean for iran? alix steel looks at that when

bottom line continues in just a moment. ♪

mark: welcome back to the second half-hour of bottom line on bloomberg television. i'm mark crumpton. let's get to the top stories we are following at this hour. let's begin with a check of crude oil and the close of floor trading here in new york. up nearly 6%, trading it 52.05. president obama is going to deal with the run the best bet by far. he tells the new york times that the agreement will make sure the iranians do not get nuclear weapons. also, the president tried to reassure those who think the

deal could put israel in dangerous. president obama: what i'm willing to do is to make the kind of commitments that will give everybody in the neighborhood, including iran clarity that if israel were to be attacked by any state that we would stand by them. mark: israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is not convinced. he says the deal will lead to a nuclear armed middle east. electronic trading firm vitrtu financial says it will try to raise as much as $14 million in initial public offering. lester, is the latest offering after the publication of michael lewis's book "flash boys," alleging that they and others

had rigged the stock market. according to the wall street journal, disney is investing $250 million in online fantasy sports business draft things. that -- draft things. that values the company at about $900 million. in return, draft kings has promised to spend about half $1 billion advertising in the coming years. -- $500 million advertising in the coming years. the government plans to -- sharp plans to ask a government backed innovation network corporation of japan for assistance. sharp wants to form aces the did very -- wants to form a subsidiary to make smart phones and tablet. let's return to oils ratty. west texas crude traded at about -- above $50 per barrel today but prices are still 50% lower

than last year's peak. alex deal is here with more on what is driving oil -- alix steel is here with more what is driving oil up to stop it is always something. alix: today, we have a little more demand and a little less supply, discounting iran. percent, saudi arabia actually raised its vices for oil going to what that means is saudi arabia is seeing stronger demand. if you cease robert a man, you will want people to pay for it. there are great margins right now. as long as they have juicy margins, they will want them to increase the product. on the flipside, you have drillers in the u.s. reduce the number of rigs to the 802 lastly, the lowest level since 2002, and we are finally seeing some slowdown in production because of that. we deceive production -- we did see production fall faster as a result. nothing to write home about, though.

mark: what about the agreement we have? alix: morgan stanley as saying look, you will not see any physical market affected until 2016. and if you look at what iran can and cannot do, it is currently exporting 1.1 million debt -- 1.1 million barrels of oil and that would increase to 3.4 million barrels per day. it's not nothing, but it will take a while to ramp up. at the same time, you do have more oil coming on the market. and barclays is writing a great report over the weekend about where this oil is coming from. verse, if you look at india, the refinery business is kicking up. refiners going to maintenance, and they don't need as much oil therefore they're not buying it. other thing, the floating stores . about 30 million barrels are estimated to be floating off the iranian coast to be sold at any moment's notice. and i would lead to more oil on

the market. mark: what about the oil companies that are not doing business in iran? are they anticipating getting ready to run back in if they are allowed? alix: we heard that could be the tape -- the case, in particular iol and others. all the big ones happen in 2011. the contract that iran has, oil companies do not like them. they are called by back contracts. at the end of the day, that means the big companies do not have control of their productions and do not get to put the reserves on their books. it's not as interesting to them as other agreements in the middle east. a lot might have to change in terms of construction for iran to move the companies over. mark: and right here in my script it says "coming up on street smart --" alix: look at that. bill jennings will be joining

me. we will talk about oil, but we will talk about the crazy -- bill janeway will be joining me. we will talk about oil, but also the crazy valuations that we see. mark: "street smart" coming out of the top of the hour. still ahead, president obama has back to the summit of the americas in panama this week. we have details on this historic trip in today's latin america report live from mexico when bottom line continues in just a moment. ♪

mark: tonight on charlie rose on bloomberg, part two of charlie's discussion with admiral mark -- admiral mike mullen. he served as joint chiefs of staff from 2000 7-11, and was the top adviser to president obama and president bush during the war in iraq and afghanistan. that is that some :00 and 10:00

p.m. tonight. let's go to our partner in mexico city. jose, good afternoon. jose: good afternoon. it's very good to see you again. we rose to a full week after a weak u.s. jobs report added to speculation at the federal reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates. the reality -- the real gains 211 -- 2.1%. and the president of brazil said in an interview with bloomberg last week that narrowing will help that economy. now to pamina -- panama, where organizers of the summit of america's will be in their this weekend. they will gather leaders from

the western hemisphere and my the topics over the normalization of relations between cuba and the united dates. -- united states. some experts are expecting some discussion of the opening of the american embassy in upon -- in havana. these are the top stories making headlines here in latin america. back to you. mark: the latin america report for this monday, jose, thank you. coming up, our chief market correspondent scarlet fu will have the addition of off the charts on the other side of the break. ♪

mark: welcome back. let's get you some of the top stories we are following at this hour. president obama the deal on iran's nuclear program -- called the deal on iran's nuclear program a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity." it does not mean we will give up military superiority or fail to protect israel. in the meantime, the chair of the senate foreign relations committee says congress needs to play a role. senator corker: look, i know a lot of water has to go under the bridge in the next several days and it's very important congress be in the middle of this teasing out those important questions. mark: in the meantime, benjamin

netanyahu is blasting the deal saying it will lead to a nuclear armed middle east. it is raining today, but forecasters say it's not enough to ease the drought in california. cities and towns are under state orders to cut usage by 25% stop and governor -- by 25% and governor jerry brown says it's not just a concern for california. governor brown: it will show up in other parts of the world. from california, i can tell you climate change is not a hoax and we are dealing with it, and it's serious. mark: farmers use 40% of california's water, but the order does not affect them. governor brown says they are producing food, not wasting water on lawns or taking long showers. the currency held by the world central banks -- the currency reserve help of the world

central banks is ending. it is down from a record 12 trillion in august, 2014. the stronger dollar is partially responsible. but it still underscores a big shift. central banks had added an average of $824 billion to reserves each year over the past decade. that is a look at the top stories were following. coming up, ron darling joins us with a look at opening day. and later on "street smart," the ceo of free bird next on the company's ipo. in sports, it was the moment march madness bracket got busted all over america. wisconsin shocked undefeated kentucky on saturday and will play duke tonight for the ncaa men's basketball title. >> kentucky was a team of destiny, but now wisconsin having beaten that team of destiny, there is nothing like march madness.

everyone feel -- filled out their brackets. it's a religious cult. it's the second largest sporting event on television, next to the super bowl. the only difference is that it lasts for three weeks. mark: duke has one several championships and wisconsin has one back in 1941. we do have the winner of the bloomberg charity bracket full service looks like goldman's gary: will take on the -- gary cohen will take home the best score by taking -- by taking all of the best teams. here is him talking about it. gary: all of the guys who watch the agency or the big east they look at the big ten teams. they don't have the best, best country -- best record in the country because they beat each other up all year long but when they come in and play the the teams, they tend to shine. and year after year, it happens. it happened in the ohio -- in

the playoffs. ohio state won the big ten. it wasn't done luck at all. -- dumb luck at all. i picked michigan state and wisconsin to be in the final four. and i think it was, for guys to watch the big ten basketball pretty obvious. mark: and a win for him means 360,000 dollars to his charity, harlem r.b.i.. it provides inner-city youth with opportunities and membership -- mentorship. investors are waiting until the end of the earnings season to determine whether stocks should keep climbing higher. in today's edition of off the charts, scarlet fu joins me to look at whether corporate executives are putting their money where their mouth star. scarlet: we talk about companies buying back their own chairs which has the effect of reducing earnings per share, but does

extend to individual corporate insiders, officers, directors, employees echoed it turns out, -- employees? it turns out, not so much. in the global strategy note today, the first chart shows us this. the red line tracks the number of insider purchase announcement. it peaked in 2009 during a recession, of course, and spiked again in the second half of 2011 and 2012 has fallen off. the latest reading is on a 12 year low. if you look at the blue bar, a bit difficult to see, but you can see the seasonal pattern there. the overall trend, though has been a move higher. and in the past three months, it has tallied more than 1800 selling announcements. markus: of the two measures which is more significant? the insider buying or the selling? scarlet: people want to diversify their portfolio, especially if they aren't a company insight -- are a company insider.

but they typically buy shares on the open market for one reason the stock is cheap. the fact that we are seeing a drop in by announcements, you could see that -- you could say that stocks are no longer cheap. another way to slice it is to look at the ratio of insider sells to buy. right now, this ratio is at 14.6, which means there are more than 14 in a half cell announcements for each buying announcement. mike -- mark: those are subject to blackout time frames. how does that factor in this time around? scarlet: most occur within march to may. we are seeing the sweet spot right now. we are seeing the highest march on record for selling announcements, and the highest month on record. and that plays out as well inside -- in the insider purchases as well.

mark: let's connect the dots and go back to the stock market. does this mean the bull market will come to an end? scarlet: if you look at the market, there is no real cause and effect. the stockmarket has been pretty resilient. insider buying is one of the tools you use in this environment. right now, the macro headwinds are important. the stronger dollar will factor into when the fed raises interest rates. and all of that factors into earnings. analysts are looking right now for earnings in the s&p 500 to fall in the second quarter and third quarter. if you strip out energy, this are -- those are slated to fall by about 2%. mark: scarlet, thank you. opening day for the remainder of

major league baseball. rod darling -- ron darling will join me next. ♪

mark: it's opening day for the first time ever with 28 teams scheduled to begin their season on the same day. former professional pitcher ron darling is an analyst with sny here in new york. he joins me now on the phone from nationals. welcome back to "bottom line,"

and good to talk to you again. i've got to begin with what it's like. if you could take us back to your first day as a murder -- a major league or, when you started on opening day for the first time. ron: what you play for 25 years or five years that opening day jitters, the adrenaline rush you get on that day is unlike any other. it's unlike even the post season, where so much is on the line. not that much on the line in the first game, but a lot on the line as far as your emotions. they are running as high as they will ever run as a professional player. mark: the new pace of play roles that will take effect this year, how important is it to speed up baseball games? ron: i think it is vital. i think we have an audience that watches baseball that is getting older. we need to do a good job of getting more younger people interested in the game.

when you talk about the top 10 professional athletes, usually baseball players are not included in all of this. it's got to change and it's got to change with a quicker pace of the game. it's up to change with quicker games. so many games have gotten longer each with the last six years. that has got to stop. mark: an annual survey said the average ticket price rose 3.3% the season to $28. that is the steepest increase in many years. our average fans price tag? ron: i think some are -- priced out? ron: i think some are priced out. but with all of the investment in new ballclubs and stadiums, i think that is vital, that they are made to offer 1000, 2000, whatever the number of tickets are to kids second, and purchase them for five dollars. or whatever the price will be.

that is the way to get fans for the future, to make sure they get these people in the ballpark. mark: commissioner rob manfred says one of the places major league baseball is looking to expand his mexico. how could a team help the league in acquiring top talent and what would it means in terms of marketing for talented their? ron: it would be huge and it will be great for mexico. it would be great for the fans because in mexico city, you have been jumping over the fences all day long. as baseball starts to its stand, and montreal, mexico city, -- to expand, thinking of montreal, next the city, that would be a great move for major league baseball. mark: the defending champ, what are their chances of repeating?

ron: my prediction this year, the seattle mariners are the club to pick. mark: ron darling, former world series champ, and now sportscaster with mlb. he joins us from where the mets and the national kickoff at 4:05 p.m. washington time. thank you for your time. get the latest headlines at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio, streaming on your tablet command on bloomberg.com. that does it for this edition of "bottom line" on bloomberg television. i'm mark crumpton from new york. ♪ . .

alix: welcome to the most important hour of the session. 60 minutes left until the closing bell. i am alix steel and this is "street smart." both sides debate the timing of sanction relief. another looming deadline for greece, this time to the tune of $500 million. the country says it will pay up, but at what cost? i will be talking silicon valley with my guest host. "street smart" starts now.