mania. what is the next sector up for sale? it is not tiger's fault. who is to blame for golf's declining popularity? this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from new york city. i'm olivia sterns. brendan greeley is joining me. tom keene is actually off today. brendan: greece is all paid up, at least for now. they repaid about half $1 billion to the imf today. greece is trying to persuade europe to unlock billions more in aid. >> i think they are mistreating the greeks and also are mistreating themselves. the eurozone, as a ruler, is not doing well.

brendan: in february, the greek prime minister reached a deal with europe to hand over money but that was based on tsipras making changes to the economy. oil is trading near a one-week low. the market was rocked by government reports that crude stockpiles got larger. inventories grew three times as much as expected. the glut is getting bigger. the jury found dzhokhar tsarnaev guilty of the boston marathon bombing and they will decide whether he will face the death penalty. massachusetts governor knows where he stands on the death penalty for dzhokhar tsarnaev, but says it is not up to him. >> i would support the death

penalty. i continue to. obviously, this is a decision made by the jury. brendan: the penalty phase may begin next week. he will escape capital punishment if just one juror decides against it. olivia: a white police officer arrested for shooting an unarmed black man in the back has now been fired. video shows him firing eight shots into walter scott's back. the mayor of north charleston is ordering that all the police start wearing body cameras. the board of perrigo will discuss the takeover offer by mylan. the masters gets underway today but it is hard to believe the tournament will have any more magic than what we saw in yesterday's par 3 contest.

that shot was jack nic klaus -- hole in one. brendan: the golden bear. olivia: the golden bear. his first ace at augusta. brendan: there are a whole generation of people watching it saying, of course. olivia: those are your top headlines. brendan: listen to her speak of the eight iron, as it is -- as if it is a thing that we know of. olivia: my father has had three holes in one. brendan: all right. from the golf course to london. alexis tsipras is return from moscow. his finance minister is in paris. the country will pay the imf half $1 billion. jonathan ferro joins us from london.

can greece make its own pension payments this month? >> that is a big question, isn't it? you still have to meet the payments for salaries, pensions. it is unknown whether they can do that. you have to navigate all of these things leading up to that eurozone creditors meeting on april 24, where they need to unlock more aid. it is groundhog day in europe. the fact that they 450 million euro payment to the imf was in doubt gives you a look at the scale of the mess that that country is in. olivia: there are a few things they could do here. when does greece actually run out of cash? >> it is not clear to anyone at all. the deadline on april 24 is key. if they don't unlock aid, they

are up for monster redemptions. we are talking several billion euros. if they don't get the cash there is no reaching behind the sofa to come up with it. they just will not have the money to pay back the ecb. brendan: what is greece's strategy right now? it is really hard to figure out what is going on. what is the end game for them? >> i struggle to see what the strategy actually is. you flirt with russia, russia flirts with them. who are they trying to wind up? greece has lacked leverage. they haven't got any leverage over the eurozone creditors and that has taken place in the marketplace. you see greek assets and yields surge up the back of this kind of thing every now and again. they are down again. the fact of the matter is that volatility in greek assets is

not spinning over to european assets. they are not a threat to european markets like they were 3-4 years ago. they don't have any leverage over eurozone creditors. you just cross your fingers and hope. the bottom line is that the other side are not folding. they want to see the reforms. until then, you don't get the money. brendan: the way to understand the story is to look at deadlines and understand what they mean. >> the death of the deadline -- april 24 is pretty key. they meet with the creditors in the eurozone. if they don't unlock that money. you cannot keep scraping up the odd euro here and there to meet the payments. you have got to come up with billions. economists said that greece would need 30 billion euros to get through the rest of the year

and pay their creditors. you do not just a magic up that kind of cash. i will not give you a firm deadline, but april 24 is a pretty key one. olivia: thank you so much for joining us. our guest host for the hour is leland miller. great to have you on this morning. let's talk about what is happening in asia. a huge move in equity markets. talk to us about the macro picture for china. >> it is interesting. the government is finally talking about the slowdown. at the end of last year beginning of this year, they were talking that china needs to slow down. how much of the economy is slowing down for good reason and how much is it because they refuse to reform and restructure? brendan: does the government have a handle on local governments. the central government comes up with plans.

when you read into the details it seems like the local governments are taking up loans that they cannot pay. do they have a handle on that? leland: they don't, but the plan is to swoop in with some sort of development bank, by up the loans. there is no plans. they feel like they can do with the problems on a one-off basis. it is a problematic approach to dealing with an economy. olivia: the shanghai composite is up 90% over the past 12 months. what is the outlook for corporate profits? leland: it is interesting. we are more bullish on corporate profits. despite the fact that the economy is slowing down pretty dramatically, firms are doing ok. firm profits are ok. that is not what is jolting the equity market. they are buying on margin. they are swooping in and buying

everything they can see because they think they are about to get on the easing train. olivia: we had mark mobius on bloomberg tv earlier this morning and he says you could see a 20% correction in chinese equities. if that were to happen, what with the follow-up be? total panic? leland: i think you see more than 20%. i think it should be expected that it is going to happen. people have to realize that equity performance is not reflected by real fundamentals. there is nothing in the economy that is boosting equities. you can't get money out of china, so people are levering up and they see china as a perfect opportunity to go win before the do more interest rate cuts. the rally will end soon enough. brendan: ok. a lot of money looking for a good place to go. we have already seen $100 billion deals.

we are going to talk about why m and a is heating up. that brings us to our twitter question of the day. what is the next sector up for sale? tweet us. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." here are your top headlines. greece is all paid up for the time being. they gave nearly a half billion dollars to the imf. boston marathon bomber dzhokhar tsarnaev faces one of just two

outcomes. life in prison or the death penalty. the jury will now decide his fate. he was convicted in the attack that happened almost exactly two years ago. also on the terminal right now the secret service is suspending a high-ranking supervisor after a female employee claims he suspended her -- he assaulted her. senator ted cruz has $31 million in his presidential campaign coffers. his only official rival so far is kentucky senator rand paul. potentially deadly bacteria is prompting a nationwide food recall. savbra is recalling hu mmus. the nfl is hiring its full first time -- its first full-time

female official. those are your top headlines. olivia: still to come we will take a look at china's brainchild the asian infrastructure investment bank. at 6:40, the masters tournament kicks off tonight. tiger woods decided to play. what has been his influence on the golf industry? plus, 2014 was the hottest year on record and it may just get even hotter. why are we doing more about climate change? there have been over $100 billion worth of deals announced in a 24-hour span. fedex proposed to buy tnt airways. shell announced a major merger to buy bg group and now mylan is offering to buy perrigo for $29

billion. bob, great to have you on this morning. when was the last time m&a was this busy? >> i think it was the 1980's. [laughter] >> i'm not really sure. it is phenomenally busy. olivia: why now? >> we also of expected it. cheap capital and all the rest of it. things piled up. companies brought in a tremendous amount of equity. you can only do that for so long. eventually, you have to do something about the deleverage balance sheets. this is a strategic market. the most amazing fact yesterday was that the mylan stock went up. that tells you that their investors are saying, thank you

for doing something with that balance sheet and not just buying back your stock or letting cash set. olivia: you also did see that shares went higher on the offer price. >> yes. we are not involved in that deal. obviously, i would not be talking about it anyway. the disclosure is different here than in the eu. it may be that, it may be not. brendan: why not invest in growth? why not invest in organic growth? >> this is what drives m&a. do you buy or do you build? especially in the pharma industry. the odds of success of organically creating that drug and the long time it takes to get it onto the market it'll most always make sense to buy. olivia: i find it incredible

that both of these companies have already inverted. i am wondering about price. this deal had a 25% premium. the shell offer as a 50% premium to read what do you think the prices of the deals? >> there have been some pretty phenomenal multiples. the craft-heinz -- kfratraft-heinz multiple and that food business is not going to be on a tear. the show multiple -- the show multiple, it does make sense. brendan: what you have going on right now is lots of international movement of capital. how much of this activity is just taking advantage of the best taxes where they can get them? >> it is a factor. if your tax rate is lower, you

can get more. the multiples can get higher on the other side in these inversions. it is a factor. a year ago, we were all saying this is driving the train. i don't think it is the driver of the train. it is part of it. brendan: what is the single thing driving that locomotive? the availability of cash? >> corporate america is very deleverage. if all you do is buy back stock you are just doing financial engineering and investors like buying back stock, but looking down the road, they are saying, you have the balance sheet you've got to invest in the business and that brings up the buy/build question. olivia: a quick final question. the biggest energy deal in a decade. everybody is trying to figure

out if it is 1998 again. do you look at the deal as a sign or signal the people in the industry think oil prices have bottomed? >> it is a signal that one there is a radical change in the underlying fundamentals, deals are going to happen. there is going to be a ton of stuff on the shale side. those are going to be shotgun weddings and all the rest of it. it is not a game changer, but it is a fundamental event you have to look at. it is the kind of thing that tends or triggers consolidation. there is the mega major and the major and the mid-major. the mid-majors are saying, maybe this is not a bad time to get a really good number. one of the important things about the shell deal is that there is a big stock component, which means of those synergies

-- two point 5 billion estimated synergies -- if they find a path shareholders can share or they can take the stock. olivia: we will let you get back to work, but i expect to see more of you in the coming days. brendan: that is our twitter question of the day. do you build or do you buy? what is the next sector up for sale? tweet us. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm brendan greeley with olivia sterns. that is the capital dam. -- that is the capitol dome.

tom keene is in an undisclosed location. we don't know where he is. we are taking a look at my morning must-read. "diving into empty pools." there is so much data on this coming from the oecd right now. for example, by 2050, the world's population will be to 9 billion. leland miller, does china have a plan for this? leland: not really. everyone thinks of air pollution in china. water pollution and the lack of available water is one of the major problems china is going to have for years to come and it is going to be a major track on gdp

growth to try to figure this out. brendan: this problem is so much bigger than california. it should not have come as a surprise. it is a surprise in a developed economy like california but the report is deeply depressing. olivia: this is not just about the rise of almond milk. this is a serious global challenge. it is scary how many developed countries do have a critical dearth of infrastructure for it. brendan: how does that play into the politics of china? the leadership has taken it on as a real problem but at the local level, do people talk about water? leland: they do now. environment used to be a localized issue and then it became an economic issue and now it is a political issue. you have to do something about the environmental constraints on water, the pollution in the water. they have no choice but to deal with this as a tier one political issue going forward because it is something being

talked about by the average person. brendan: water -- olivia: water costs a lot more in london. i did not even really have a water bill in new york. leland: you have to watch what kind of water you drink. it is dicey. brendan: leland miller. the china-based book international. our twitter question of the day. olivia: this flurry of m&a we have seen. what is the next sector that is going to be up for sale? pharma? energy? tweet us. ♪

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olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get you straight to our top headlines. greece is running out of cash. we have said it before. today, it managed to repay its debt to the imf. prime minister alexis tsipras wants european lenders to unlock more than $7 billion in bailout funds that greece desperately needs. tsipras has not come up with economic reforms that the lenders want to see. the head of the oecd said those

reforms are not just for the lenders. >> the structural changes have not been taken. some steps continue to be needed going forward and it is something that is going to be adopted or done eventually for the benefit of the greek people for the benefit of the greek economy. it is not necessarily because they are being demanded by the outside. olivia: a greek newspaper reports that european officials have given officials six more days to come up with those reforms. futures are up 2%. yesterday's drop of 7% may have been excessive. oil inventories rose last week by the most in 14 years. a jury will not decide whether dzhokhar tsarnaev lives or dies for carrying out the boston marathon bombing. those same jurors have convicted dzhokhar tsarnaev on the 30 accounts -- on the 30 counts.

one of the victims was emotional after the verdict. >> he should be held accountable for his actions and i am very thankful for each of the jury members that are making him do that. olivia: the penalty phase of the trial may begin next week. his lawyers argue that the real mastermind was his brother, who was killed in a shootout with police. brendan: president obama is in jamaica. it is the first stop on a three-day tour of the caribbean and central america. tomorrow and saturday, president obama will be in panama. he will meet cuba's president there. the president is expected to announce that he is taking cuba off the list of countries that sponsor terrorism. want to watch youtube videos without the commercials? soon, you will be able to, but you will have to pay for it. that is according to a person

with knowledge of this matter. directv has ended the commercials featuring actor rob lowe. comcast had complained about the ads. the better business bureau told directv to pull them. olivia: bye-bye world bank hello new infrastructure bank. american politicians are freaking out. they're worried that china is stealing america's economic clout in the region and they have unsuccessfully asked european allies to get out. yesterday, we spoke to the world bank president. >> what we are saying is that the world bank is embracing this

system because the task of ending extreme poverty and investing in infrastructure is a huge problem that requires more players. olivia: with us is leland miller, the author of the china-based book. -- the china beige book. this has devolved into way and argument about whether the u.s. is seating global economic leadership? is that fair to say? leland: that is not fair to say. this is not that big a deal. it was made into a big deal because the issue was so badly handled by the administration. if that had not happened, there would not have been leaks about being mad at our allies. brendan: we spoke yesterday when the president of the world bank came in for a meeting and he was very clear that china is doing

this not as an affront to the u.s. but because they have a lot of cash sitting around and the need to do something with it. do you agree with that interpretation? leland:they are recycling their surpluses. they need to do this for economic regions -- reasons. do we need to watch out that this might get hijacked? sure. but it is not that big a deal. olivia: infrastructure looks like the next best thing since treasuries. brendan: do you think there will be something to prevent the worst excesses of the world bank from the 1960's and 1970's? leland: no, and that is why i think the u.s. should be hands-off on this. let it go. olivia: you don't think we need a baghdad to beijing highway? leland: these are ways the

chinese are going to spend money to create projects that allow them to use chinese goods and services abroad. they are not going to be economic or good projects. this should not be a tier one issue for americans. olivia: is this in addition to the world bank? leland: this is in addition. they are not looking to create parallel structures. it is in addition to it. brendan: they still have projects in china and they see themselves, the world bank does as some combination of a consulting shop and a lead investor on projects. you could see projects led by the world bank with capital on the asian infrastructure investment. leland: you are going to see all these combinations. all of these organizations will work closely together. olivia: let's be honest. it is $50 billion. leland: drop in the bucket. olivia: it is not a lot.

brendan: tiger is back in the masters. we will discuss how his performance as an impact on the game. this is "bloomberg surveillance." streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. ♪

brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." with olivia sterns. we actually have no idea where tom keene is. it is time for single best chart. tiger woods is ranked 104th. that could cause you to feel empathy or disdain. use callaway as a proxy for golf. they just sell golf stuff. that is simple share price and we plotted it against tiger's ranking. he hangs out a number one for a while but the share price dropped well before tiger had his recent problems of the past 3-4 years. we have matt miller on set with us, bloomberg's noted golf enthusiast who is headed to augusta this very day. matt: straight after "in the loop." definitely not tiger's fault.

not even close. the popularity of watching golf sword because of his success. a lot of people got into golf because of tiger. a lot of guys on tour will credit tiger with the reason that they got interested in golf. when rory was seven years old, he said he wanted to be tiger. there have been other factors. for one thing, the housing decline. the callaway golf chart seems to tank early. during the housing decline, it took down a lot of golf courses. there was a big growth in golf courses 2004-2005 because they were built with a whole bunch of housing developments and when the housing bubble burst, a lot of those went bust. brendan: that is interesting. it is kind of a property place. it requires so much property. you have to look at it as a real estate issue. matt: absolutely.

the 1960's was a big boom for golf courses. it became a lot more popular and a lot more people played because the biltmore three par courses and more community courses that -- they built more three par courses and more community courses. olivia: golf is less and less popular. are the changes having any success? matt: i will definitely playoff the ladies tees if i am out there. a lot of people feel that it is more fun to play back and it shows that you are a better golfer if you play from the pro-tees. olivia: jordan spieth is he the new tiger woods? matt: i don't know if he is the

new tiger woods, but he is exciting. he is only 21 years old. a masters is going to be super cool because you have a playoff between one guy who really earned his career and that is jimmy walker. he played for 10 years without winning anything and then he won 5-6 and now he is developing his talent to a level where he could win the masters. jordan spieth just showed up at 19 and went pro with under armour and was born with that gift. brendan: you when i are going to england this summer where we are going to play around the foot golf. bigger holes, no golf, played with soccer balls. matt: that sounds like something you could do in washington or colorado state or in california with a prescription. [laughter] olivia: matt is stoked for the masters. matt: super stoked.

brendan: the control room has given you permission to stay for the top photo. matt: really? thank you so much. olivia: photos. matt likes goldfish. a goldfish invasion. in colorado, goldfish has taken over keller lake. it has turned into several thousand goldfish. they are threatening the ecosystem of the lake. the community is left with two options. manually remove the goldfish or drain the entire lake. brendan: why did so many goldfish show up? if you put them in a reasonable environment, they grow and survive. goldfish were not designed to die the way they do at home. matt: are they eating everything else or pooping everywhere? olivia: they are eating everything. in austria red bull partnered

with a world champion skier who went down a slope through holes filled with colored dye. explosions of color at every turn. isn't that cool? matt: it is literally my number one favorite place to ski. olivia: i totally agree. brendan: when are they going to stop being so cool? that is amazing? matt: the selling that horrible disgusting tasting drink yield you enough money to make such cool videos? brendan: the problem is you are older than 35. olivia: our number one photo of the day. women on $20. they are now down to four finalists.

they want to get a woman on the $20 bill. miller, who would you choose? brendan: kate upton -- matt: kate upton would be my choice. [laughter] brendan: is the susan b anthony dollar still a thing? what happens to old andrew jackson? olivia: i don't know. i would like to see eleanor roosevelt. brendan: eleanor roosevelt would be good. olivia: miller, thank you so much. matt: it was a pleasure joining you. tell tom keene to disappear more often. brendan: i have no comment on that. we discuss the repercussions of global warming next. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

olivia: good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." butts get you to the top headlines. we begin with greece. they are all paid up for now.

next up for prime minister alexis tsipras, trying to persuade europe to unlock billions of dollars in aid. in south carolina, the white police officer charged with murder in the shooting of an unarmed black man has been fired. the video shows him firing eight shots at walter scott as scott attempted to flee. he is being held without bond. iran's president wants sanctions lifted after the nuclear deal is finalized or iran will not sign. the deal does not pinned down a timetable. president obama is condemning therapies aimed at converting gay and transgender young people. some religious and conservative groups back the practice. the president said he would like to see a band on the state level. property insurers are getting the ok to fly drones.

the faa is giving the green light to aig, state farm, and usaa. a legendary tv journalist is calling it a career. he will retire after nearly half a century. he has hosted "face of the nation" since 1991. brendan: coming up on "surveillance," greece delivers debt to collectors. that is the good news. what happens next is unknown. is the shell deal a beginning of a new wave of m&a? we have been saying yes. what will be the real impact of the strong dollar on your portfolio? we will be breaking it down with our guest host for the hour. 2014 was the hottest year on record according to data compiled by bloomberg. 13 of the hottest 14 years occurred in our last century.

the co-author of "climate shock" is with us. you are basically telling us that no matter where you stand on this issue, we are probably lying to ourselves. let's take the perspective of somebody who believes that climate change is happening believes it is caused by humans, what is the lie that people are telling themselves? >> i would not call it a lie, because i am one of those. [laughter] >> basically what we know is bad and what we don't know as much worse. we have been to cocksure about what will happen. i cannot tell you what the next 100 years look like. brendan: do we have any sense of what the economic cost will be? >> the economic cost of averting the disaster will be much lower of the cost of sitting and waiting for it to happen. brendan: the uc any political will anywhere to pave that cost? >> that is the good news.

2014 was the hottest year on record and it was the very first time co2 emissions did not increase despite not being in a recession. olivia: i think a lot of people very simplistically look at this conversation and say you call it global warming and now we color climate change. they cannot make sense of the snow in boston and what we consider to be freak storms. they are not sure if this is an exception. it looks like we are also sang record cold temperatures. >> yes, we got a lot of snow. now you can basically say, anything, everywhere, always is related to the climate, and it is, of course. at the end of the day, it is precisely these extremes that are going to cost us the most. averages are bad enough but it is the tales that matter. brendan: one of the lines we

heard from president obama when he was running for office is green jobs. this idea that it is not going to cost you anything to avert climate change, that this is all going to work out for everyone. do we need to get used to the idea that there will be a cost? >> there is no such thing as a free lunch. it turns out sometimes we are being paid to eat our lunches. the slogan basically is don't tax good, tax bad. put a price on co2 not a price on labor. you will get more jobs and less co2. olivia: how much progress is the chinese government making with green reforms? leland: they are trying to push it as an economic matter and a political matter. the issue is that they have got to maintain stability.

they also cannot do anything massive at once. they are trying to order local governments and provincial governments to do things they don't want to do because they need to keep their growth up. there is a divergence between what the central government would like to do and what the local governments are willing to do. brendan: is china a partner or opponent on climate change? leland: both, neither? you have chinese growth slowing. if they don't peel back their environmental problems and co2 emissions you will soon larger problems down the road. olivia: you said they need stability. i assume you meant economic stability and they need to keep the economic growing and that is why they would allow pollution to continue. when you see those pictures and you see the smog in the air, isn't there a risk that there is going to be political instability and people will reject the brown air? leland: absolutely. what you are seeing are that foreign workers are no longer

willing to go to beijing. or they will demand hazard pay. you are having immediate problems with this. it is something that china is trying to deal with. brendan: it is happening in delhi as well. ex-pats are leaving. what government is getting this right? >> china is actually a fantastic example. they have seven trials putting a limit on pollution and they are writing the national law as part of the next five-year plan. brendan: the author of "climate shock" is with us. read it and stop lying to yourself about what we are going to have to do. olivia: also, our thanks to leland miller. but stick a quick look at what is happening on the forex markets. the dollar is a little bit stronger, the euro weaker against the dollar. we saw those fomc minutes showing that the fed committee

is divided about whether or not we should be raising rates in 2016. the euro is a little bit stronger. the japanese yen, dollar. the dollar index spot up by about 0.25%. ♪

olivia: greece settles -- lexus

is a press -- will you have enough cash? m&a mania with $1 billion worth of deals in just three days -- $100 billion worth of deals. building a coalition block by block. will the next u.k. government look like a lego model? good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm olivia sterns. tom keene is actually off today. let's get to our top headlines. brendan: greece has paid up and on time. the greek government repaid half-billion was to the imf today despite being strapped for cash. the greeks are trying to persuade europe to unlock billions more in aid. eurozone countries have done a poor job of handling the crisis. >> they are mistreating the

greeks. the eurozone is not doing well. brendan: in february, alexis tsipras reached a deal to hand over another $7.5 billion but that was based on him coming up with more changes to the economy. so far, his plans have come up short. oil is rebounding today after it biggest drop in two months. teachers up more than 2% in new york. speculation that yesterday's decline was too much. prices fell after report that stockpiles rose by more than 14 years -- will it be a life sentence or the death penalty? that same jury will now decide whether he gets capital punishment. he was convicted of carrying out the biggest terror attack on u.s. soil since 2001.

the massachusetts governor knows where he stands on the death penalty. >> i said last year that for a crime like this come i would support the death penalty and i continue to appeared this is a decision that gets made by the jury. brendan: the trial may begin next week. he could escape capital punishment if one juror decides against it. brendan: olivia: olivia: more developers in the case of a white police officer arrested for shooting an unarmed black man in the back. the video shows the officer firing eight shots. deficit has now been fired. he is being held without bond and the mayor is now ordering all the cities police officer start wearing body cameras. the board is set to meet to discuss the takeover offer from my -- para go makes a range

of products that include skin gels and nasal sprays. in sports from a 45 minutes from now, the masters tournament gets underway. what happened in yesterday's par 3 contest? a golden moment for the golden bear appeared jack niklas on the tee at the 123 yard fourth hole. it was a hole in one. he won a record fifth masters -- it was his first ace in more than 50 years of playing at a gstaad -- at augusta. breaking news coming out of the bank of england, deciding to leave its current asset purchases unchanged. we are lucky to have with us francine lacqua. she just blew in.

any reaction to the bank of england news? francine: this was pretty much expected. you're looking at it uncertain election. you're worried that the fed has not done anything yet. it is powering ahead. wages are not rising any still have the productivity -- olivia: sounds similar to what's happening in the u.s. it looked like england was going to be the first major g-7 economy to tighten. now, not so clear. francine: you look at greece europe this may spill over into the u.k. if you are in the u.k., why would you go first? let's wait for the fed and then maybe he goes next. brendan: alexis tsipras has returned from moscow. his finance minister is in

paris. the country will pay the imf half-a-billionaire dollars. at the conference where you are in the actual senate, they are talking about economic macroeconomics. outside, i imagine they're talking about greece. what are you learning ge? >> fragility -- all the issues are on greece. the message is very clear. on the way to meeting the imf obligations. i met the oecd -- they met with the greeks because this whole issue comes down to trust. do you release the funds to greece and do you trust the greeks to deliver what they

promised? hunting for taxes, stopping the oligarchs, going after tax. the conversations with the greeks but reassuring the rest of the creditors in europe yes the greeks can deliver on these promises. we understand so far that the imf has been paid. what happens next week? a billion and a half euros in wages, pensions real life on the streets in greece. francine: one of the things we've been looking out for -- saying it's not useful to point fingers. as the eu and greece seeing more eye to eye or are we still talking about reparations from world war ii and stuff like that? >> hope you're having a good time. i think we've moved on.

the eu today said we expected greece to hang in there. the crux of the matter is this -- it could be an accident. the discussion here the institute of new economic thinking backed by george soros, get real europe, you have to get real. the greeks have so much debt, they can survive under this pilot debt. -- can't survive under this pile of debt. we had the president of imf -- we are supporting them, getting them the infrastructure. there is a huge willingness to get over the line. do the greeks want to come over the line or take it to the wire? olivia: we will leave it there.

a meeting with the oecd outside of paris. francine, this is your -- we've had so many one minute to midnight moments. is greece really on the brink right now? should we care right now? francine: they are not modeling it because it is so preposterous that they actually leave. i would rather have a plan b, but that's a personal opinion. it is always crunch time. european politics always comes together and that's what people are banking on now. it's a strange government. they have the support of the people and so it's tough to push a lot of this through. pensions and privatization. olivia: in jamie dimon's letter he said jpmorgan is modeling for a greek exit. brendan: the chief u.s. equity

strategist for morgan stanley -- which one do you take seriously? >> none. i do u.s. equities. until a series of u.s. corporate's tell me their earnings are impaired, i think i become complacent. think about the number of things we've had to plug into our computer in the last five years i plotted things in my computer portuguese, spanish bonds -- let's focus on earnings and cash. i'm giving you the reason you get jaded. brendan: as far as u.s. equities are concerned, greece is a sideshow. >> you have this event, maybe it's 30%, whatever it is but you can change the dollar's value versus the euro and that would impair earnings for number of companies. it is there that we have a huge focus on. just right now, i'm not

embedding it into the base case for how to do s&p in a portfolio. brendan: we know your economist is pulling for a rate hike in 2016. what is your take away from the fed minutes yesterday? >> it is a status quo. they have not really changed their tune at all. olivia: they are divided. >> i don't think they will act anytime soon. there's implications for beating the s&p. olivia: lucky us. brendan: adam parker just teased. olivia: pros onset. euro weakness means dollar strength. don't miss it. ♪

olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." time for the morning must-read. mine comes from the financial times this morning. nick butler writing about shell lost bg takeover. the industry has been shaken by the price fall and has just realized that low prices could persist. -- shell's bg takeover. it is just the beginning. with this onset, adam parker of

morgan stanley. how do you play m&a? adam: three primary ways to our calls have been on small caps over large. you get the surrounding securities going up. small caps is one way. you tend to see it in -- once it happens in sector, it happens for a while in that sector. you see it in health care. three is the brokerage industry. olivia: all of these deals are in europe. it's all about europe. have you ever seen at this busy? francine: not in two decades. you look at the energy prices they say shell is one of the

only ones that can afford to do this. it is difficult four companies to have that kind of valuation. brendan: you are looking at a lot of companies sitting on a lot of cash. the choice is build or buy. are you seeing disappointed that no one is choosing build? adam: you buy a portfolio and short stocks that have low capital spending to sales, -- only capital-intensive businesses -- you have to time that investment cycle perfectly and investors alike that. you have the ability to do deals right now where the replacement crossed is below what they are trading valuation must. test valuation wise.

-- valuation wise. every research note i read in the 1990's is -- your free was long enough out that no one would call them on it. that totally has changed. -- years three. brendan: what is the next sector up for sale? this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio and your tablet. ♪

brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is on vacation but we don't actually know where he is. if you see him, send up a flare. we begin with greece, which is all paid up for the time being. the government gave a half billion dollars to the imf. next up, trying to persuade europe to unlock billions more in aid. joke our son i havthe boston mom her

face is one of two outcomes. he was convicted -- the boston bomber bases one of two outcomes. another blackeye for the secret service and the director, joseph clancy. a female employee claims he assaulted her. it happened last week during and after hours party at the agency's headquarters. ted cruz has $31 million in his presidential campaign conference -- his only official rival so far, kentucky senator rand paul. jp morgan chase had jamie dimon warning shareholders about u.s. treasury. last year's volatility was a warning shot to investors and the next financial crisis could be made worse by a shortage of security.

yields fluctuated by nearly 4/10 of a percentage point. the league is hiring his first full-time female referee. sarah thomas has been officiating football for 19 years and earned high marks after calling a preseason game last year. olivia: still to come we dig a little deeper into that letter to shareholders from jpmorgan bosts jamie dimon. a look at the upcoming elections in the u.k. alcoa kicked off earnings seasons unofficially yesterday afternoon. a little bit better than expected. with the huge slump and commodities come are we in an earnings recession? dollar bulls are booking bill is in the south of france. the euro trading at $1.30 today. a strong dollar might be good for your travel plans but it's not clear what the impact is going to be on your part leo. -- portfolio.

we keep hearing that the strong dollar is going to be negative for earnings lots of companies have blamed for x. can we say strong dollar is bad for equities? adam: no. you can say it is bad for earnings in the u.s. you go back and look when the dollar has strengthened, the earnings were impaired but the price-earnings ratio with the multiple expanded. they're both and of a stronger u.s. economy. when you can prove is household and personal products staples, machinery chemicals, select health care are the most exposed. as we try to be the s&p 500 with a portfolio we try to play that game within the markets to avoid those that have a high exposure. you cannot show historically that it is bad for the overall market. brendan: you said something

interesting in your note to her used to say we don't do macro. they don't say that anymore. are we all macro economic strategists now? adam: we track the fraction of the average performance in the u.s. stock and say the rest is company specific or stock specific and we track that overtime. if you look back in the 1980's and 1990's come i can only explain 25% of the average stocks returned from macro factors. it declined over the next decade and tromped out and 11 -- in 2011. at that point, and it can explain 70% with macro factors. now, we are about 50-50. recently, it has been a little more macro with oil dominating

most conversations. francine: what is your take on european equities? there's a misconception that when the euro is low it benefits european equities. 40% of what europe makes goes inside the euro bloc. the benefit from that is very small. his germany a good pick? adam: morgan stanley's strategist has been optimistic on european equities. a lot of the move so far has been in local currency, as we talked about. you have to hedged if you are a u.s. investor. i see the argument, six months timeframe that they continue to do well, that's his view. you have quantitative easing maybe upside earnings expectations. as a u.s. investor, the only thing i would point out is come i think the u.s. is europe if you take all the good companies.

francine: great companies that may be overvalued? adam: we have areas that just don't exist -- the wolf rate in the west, you can find pockets of growth that look more attractive. francine: and they are not overvalued? adam: we are not recommending tech right now. the issue was on margins, not growth. the west should trade at a premium to europe because it has superior business models in many areas. brendan: you telegraphed the punch was coming. adam: my guys have had heard it internally more than once. olivia: lots more questions including the divergence between u.s. and european equities. britain decides may 9. less than a month until the election. the uk's role in the eu hangs in the balance.

no party is going to win a majority. another coalition government could be in store. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio your tablet your phone and bloomberg.com. ♪

olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." time now for my morning must-read. my comes from jpmorgan. jamie dimon writing in his annual letter to shareholders

"some things never change. there will be another crisis and its impact will be felt by the financial markets." where is the next crisis coming from? adam: i don't know. he might be from us thinking of tom keene in a bikini somewhere. that is the crisis right now. one of the things we monitor carefully is the laundry list of things we call the top of the cycle. this will be a long expansion in the u.s. i'm looking at economic factors like consumer behavior corporate factors. i don't think it is that frothy right now. of course there will be a crisis someday. is it in my investment horizon? i don't think so. i think it will be farther out in the future.

brendan: i've seen the corporate headquarter index before. how much stock do you take in indicators like that? adam: someone told me the size of the ceos photograph on their website -- i look more at capital spending and inventory. you want to make sure you are not impeding the margin progress. that can be what causes a collapse in earnings and makes the market correct. right now, hard to argue. to call that crisis it's got to be worthy -- olivia: thank you so much. another reminder of our cap headlines -- top headlines this morning. greece paid the agency half-a-billionaire dollars -- alexis tsipras wants european

lenders to unlock more than $7 billion in bailout funds that greece desperately needs. he has not come up with the economic reforms that lenders want to see. those reforms are not just for the lenders. >> the structural changes that have been taking and some that continue to be needed going forward are some that will be adopted or done eventually for the benefit of the greek people and the benefit of the greek economy not necessarily because they are being demanded by somebody from outside. olivia: european officials have given greece six more days to come up with those reforms. oil is bouncing back today after its biggest decline in two months. futures have been up this morning -- there is speculation that yesterday's drop was excessive. prices fell after the u.s. government reported that oil inventories rose last week by the most in 14 years. injury will have to decide

whether the boston bomber gets the death penalty for carrying out the bombing -- those jurors convicted him on all 30 council or the attack that killed three people and wounded 260 others. >> he should be held accountable for his actions. i'm very thankful for each of the jury members that are making him do that. olivia: the penalty phase of the trial may begin as soon as next week. his lawyers argued the real mastermind of bombing was his older brother who was killed in a shootout by police. brendan: president obama on his first u stop in kingston, jamaica. president obama will be in panama for the summit of the americas. he will meet with cuba's president. the president is expected to announce that he is taking cuba off the list of countries that

sponsor terrorism. there will soon be a way to watch youtube videos without all the commercials. you will have to pay for it. google plans to offer a subscriber version of youtube as soon as this year. google has been moving closer to charging users for content. directv has ended those commercials featuring rob lowe. comcast had complained about the ads -- directv says the plan had always been to end the rob lowe ends at ads at the end of the first quarter. olivia: you can see equities features little changed come s&p futures off by 1.8. the euro a little bit softer against the dollar the form c

statement showing the policy committee really is divided on whether or not we should hike rates early this year. nymex crude getting a bit of a bounce come up by 2% after falling more than 6% yesterday after another report of searching inventory. -- surging inventory. britain goes to the polls in 28 days. once again, the race is so tight that it's unlikely anyone will do well enough to govern alone. another coalition government may be required. that's where the hard work begins. >> her majesty the queen has asked me to form a new government -- our country has a hung parliament were no party has an overall majority. >> in 2010, david cameron formed the coalition in just five days. this time, it will be much harder no one is expected to get

an overall majority. you will have the greens the welsh nationalists, the scottish nationalists, the labour party conservative party, u.k. independence party and liberal democrat party wanting to have a say in what happens next. olivia: who knew they mainly goes with bagpipes? you can watch the full piece on bloomberg.com. how difficult will it be to get another coalition? francine: this will be one of the most difficult elections since 1908. you have seven parties, no clear majority and we are talking about alliances. you have a divided three main parties and smaller parties getting traction that are not in the best interest of the u.k. as a whole. brendan: the loser is the

liberal democrats. francine: the liberal democrats that came to this coalition five years ago were very much like. the leader was in his charismatic in the coalition did not work for him. he did not get enough and that's why he's seen as such a big loser. he did not deliver. olivia: every once in a while, the name is coming up -- how strong is the u.k. independence party really? francine: in the last local election come he got quite a few seats. he strong anti-immigration, he has strong views on the fact that the u.k. should be more british. because david cameron has lost voters, he has also called for a referendum.

the economy is not doing badly at all. it is immigration and spending cuts. brendan: he is important enough already that there is already a lego of him. has he already won in a sense? francine: he is getting what he wants but if you look at the latest polls, a lot of these smaller parties -- her election campaign is "i want what is best for scotland." she was saying we don't want to change the age of retirement because scottish people die slightly younger she is doing really well. tea or coffee? that means you are more likely to be a conservative supporter.

we have this great study by cancer worldtor world panel -- green party members have the most eclectic shopping baskets. brendan: avocados or mangoes? adam: i'm allergic to mangoes. brendan: what is that say about your policy? adam: and i don't like tea or coffee. put that in your algorithm. i like water. olivia: there is real data to back that up. francine: stop reading my charts, olivia. i'm really confused. brendan: olivia: adam parker gets a bit 4:12 so he can -- gets up at 4:12 so he can work out our twitter question of the day

what is the next sector up for sale? ♪

olivia: good morning.

a live pictures from a soggy new york city this morning. the ceo will be on "in the loop" talk about how the company measures millions of viewers with the most effective brand messaging. brendan: it is a scary how much they know. not just how much you watch, but what you see online and when and for how long. they can determine from that who you will vote for what kind of car you will choose to drive. most major automakers use ran track data to shift people. the swing voter or the swing buyer.

somebody who would buy a ford you want them to buy a chevy and you use the data to shift these people over. brendan: you use this to tailor -- >> to tailor your media by and your message as well. brendan: there is a real market that is -- better data has been wanted in this industry for a long time. >> absolutely. i don't know what about nielsen does -- that seems pretty old-school. a lot of other things what people are using these days -- we will talk to bill. i'm really excited to talk to hannah elliott today. she writes for bloomberg's luxury division downstairs. she follows cars.

she goes out to geneva, to frankfurt, to the big deal shows. she looks at the really expensive vehicles. she will be doing a piece on million-dollar cars. it is out on bloomberg.com right now. we often have slightly different opinions on what is ok and what is not. i don't believe it is ok for a ferrarri -- if i had $1 million i probably would buy an event aventedor and a rolls-royce ghost. brendan: what is your million-dollar car? adam: i like american muscle. francine: i'm confused about a ferrari 4 x 4.

>> it is a 12 cylinder. they will not be making an suv. they have said they will not do it. the only carmaker i can think of who isn't. olivia: we will see an alfa romeo suv? matt miller speaking to the ceo of ran track. ♪

olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. we begin with greece, which is all paid up for now. the government gave half $1 billion that it owed to the imf. next up for the prime minister, trying to persuade europe to unlock billions more euros in aid. white police officer charged with murder in the shooting of an unarmed black man has been fired. the video shows the officer firing eight shots as scott attempted to flee. a french tv network is trying to stave off a massive hacking attack.

the attackers blacked out 11 channels belonging to tv five. the network's website and social media sites were also blacked out. rouhani says iran will not sign -- a deal is in place to live to the healthy once iran says it will not build nuclear weapons but it does not in an exact timetable at&t taking new steps to protect customer information. workers overseas still personal information from 300,000 accounts. the toughest such action ever by the ftc. bob schieffer will retire this

summer after nearly half a century at cbs. he has hosted face the nation since 1991. brendan: coming up at 8:00 we focus on the fed after its latest minutes reading. at 8:05, the new wave of m&a. a look at the life insurance industry. earnings season is upon us alcoa kicking it up beating estimates. adam reminds me that i'm underdressed. he helps me understand -- i should probably wear a tie. he helps me understand equities. you write that we could be seen in earnings recession but that might not be a bad thing. adam: we are in a earnings

recession without an economic one. you don't have the gdp declining. what is currently embedded in the bottom-up consensus numbers down earnings in april and then down again in july. we looked at how often this happens and what happened following that. surprisingly, it was not a negative harbinger. it happened in 1986, 1999 -- if you look at the quarters after those periods, the market was up 13 out of the 16 quarters. it's about believing things will improve. you have an interesting set up right now, the consensus numbers are too low. they are for $119 in earnings this year. about in line with what you had in 2014. have come down so sharply is that the expectations of our 40 earnings growth. -- for zero earnings growth.

our number is 124. even if you are incredibly lazy you had to cut your numbers and energy, material, certain areas, but you don't have to raise them yet and consumer or other areas that might benefit because you are saying, let me wait and see. there is a deflation first reflation later element that pans out. printing: is there a fundamental macro reason why this is happening? >> i think half of that decline is from oil or related securities. half is strong dollar. i don't think you can argue that your whole 2015 economic outlook is lower than it was three months ago. olivia: cheap oil is responsible

for half of that? adam: the bottom-up consensus numbers are for 50% less earnings in the energy sector the master. -- than last year. clearly, there are benefits. analysts have not taken the numbers up there yet and they will. there's tons of areas where that will help and there is a lag effect that comes out over the summer. it has only happened six times in the 39 years there have been estimates. if you want to romanticize your contrarian bowl, that is your formula for this summer. olivia: my number for this summer is at zero parity. adam: maybe that's where tom is.

brendan: i'm going to dublin at the end of this month. olivia: a lot more whiskey. we ask you, what sector do you think is up for sale next? european industrials, due in part from u.s. dollar strength. what is your take? francine: look at the m&a activity, a lot of it is u.s. money coming in investors issuing debt and euros. why wouldn't you? we are seeing a lot of asian companies trying to spur m&a. they like the stuff in europe the brands they recognize and they have spare cash. olivia: our second answer, grim outlook, that the middle management, pecking order retail , entertainment and education.

cable companies are next for consolidation. there seems to be a paradigm shift to internet viewing. adam: you've already seen a ton in cable in other areas. is it in the late innings there? i think it will be energy industrials, health care as the main areas right now. brendan: when you are looking at media, you have the fcc emerging in the last year or so in a way it had not the last 10 years as a strong force against consolidation. olivia: clearly blocking some deals. what's on your agenda? francine: it's always about greece. we are hoping to speak to this man on-screen. he is in paris. it will be nice to get his take on the rhetoric and the reforms he wants to put on paper.

the prime minister is in russia. some pretty strong -- is a worse deal for the eu but nobody wants to leave. olivia: does anybody think there isn't going to be a bailout? francine: it has to happen. we need to find some kind of deal and then talk about restructuring. brendan: there is no way it can't. francine: it is just not sustainable. that will have to be dealt with as soon as they come together. olivia: my favorite story one of the many reasons i admire francine is because five years ago, we were standing outside a leaders meeting in brussels and it went all night and i could not believe it. it was the night they decided the first greek bailout. since then, there have been 24

all nighters and we are back to where we were in may -- francine: the leaders are tired. they still need and decide on not too much. brendan: my agenda is following the president, in panama this week for the summit of the americas. perhaps that is where tom keene is. it's going to change -- one more milestone in a change in our approach to cuba. olivia: the masters tournament. t office already happened, all eyes on bubba watson. -- tee off has already happened. a lot of guys and women like the new up and comer. jack nickless has already had a hole in one. are you watching?

adam: on the weekend. brendan: thank you so much. that does it for "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

matt: good morning. it is thursday, april 9. you are "in the loop." i'm matt miller, in four betty liu. 90 minutes away from the opening bell.

roger crandall joins us to discuss how insurers are investing amid the current low interest rate environment. how the company is targeting minority else -- millennial's. we will speak with roger lynch after the issues his company faced. a look at the $1 million and more car trend. what is driving this demand? first off, a look at our top story this morning, greece is paid up for now. the debt ridden government said nearly half $1 billion is owed to the international monetary fund. it is still asking its neighbors for help. a french economist says europe has mishandled the crisis. >> they are mistreating the greeks. they are also mistreating