john: i'm john heilemann. mark: with all due respect to cher the on say, it is time to make way for hillary. ♪ john: on the show tonight, ready for hillary. rubio is ready to go. first the great clinton campaign announcement is coming on saturday or maybe sunday. definitely sometime this weekend. it'll be on twitter or maybe facebook. then she will go on to why what or maybe new hampshire -- iowa or new hampshire. or maybe it will be new mexico. john, it is finally happening.

my question to you is what could possibly go wrong? john: let me count the possible ways. this is -- her relationship with the press is not great. this game they have played of not doing this in a straightforward way has annoyed members of the press who are already inclined to be annoyed with her, but i do think there will be a story. as soon as she speaks, there will be what is the message, what is the beat? there is nothing here. i think that is the likeliest thatbad narrative. mark: it is unfair the press plays a big role. i don't know why a campaign would try to get their candidate better relationship with the press is launching in a way that will annoy the press. the expectations are skyhigh. the media expect this

to run like an incumbent campaign. they will get back coverage for the bumps. john: why not announce it a week from now? because of all these things, it is going to be 200 reporters in des moines. she will be in a coffee shop and they are saying they will go low to the ground -- you cannot do that with 200 reporters. they will figure out a way to get a few in the room but 200 -- that is not normal. mark: if she delivers a great message, she can pay for these problems. coming this weekend. john: we will see. here are three things that hillary clinton is not what you singing. trey gowdy a blackberry commercial and our new poll. we will have new result coming. the first four numbers are all bad for hillary clinton. bad number 1 -- her favorability

number is down to 40%, the first time it has been below 50% in any bloomberg poll since 2009. that number 2 -- 72% of democrats and independents say they would like to see hillary facfe a stiff challenge. just 42% of democrats say they would definitely vote for hillary if she is nominate. bad number four, about a quarter of democrats and independents say she was not completely truthful about the e-mails of benghazi. that is a quaddeckaer of badness. which of the numbers is the nastiest? mark: i think it is the issue of people wanting competition because we are dealing withh this extraordinary situation -- very qualified woman. we have not seen a coronation of

this before of a nonincumbent. a lot of democrats would like to see the competition. if she performs great, if she reminds people wow, this is why we put it all -- all are tips on her to win, i think she will be ok but those numbers are bad. john: the one i look at his favorability. horserace numbers do not look that much this far out. favorability really matters. she if you think about it, it is the first time she has been down below 50%. at a time she was at 65%, close to 70%. the most popular public figure in america, almost as popular as the pope. she is down to 48%. i think the e-mail story has taken a toll on her. you are starting to see an across-the-board. this has happened. it has hurt her in a quantifiable way. mark: you look at her public appearances, her book tour, they

have been paid speeches, vacation all things like the event that was not originally good. and then the e-mail bank. thing. this is probably the third time i said this -- you probably need shshe needs a strong performance and if she does, she can win the primary. john: the scouting report -- we have one of our categories of the best moments of the 2016 cycle. i know we are not finished with that but what we both agreed on is we cannot come up with one. it has been -- she has been on this for over a year where there is not aot really a good moment for hillary clinton. this is the moment she has to turn it around. mark: another brainchild. there are two things americans love those best -- pizza and

guns. in the face of the nra, it was kicked off before hillary clinton's announcement. >> from a coronation, you don't get the best from america or even the best from the democratic party. what you get instead is hillary rodham clinton. illegal gifted, monicagate, benghazi gate, e-mail date white server gate. she will not bring a dawn of new promise and opportunity. hillary rodham clinton will bring a permanent darkness of deceit and of despair forced upon the american people. mark: a lot of potential presidential candidates spoke after him. headed into 2016, who is on the office? star wars or gun control?

john: you look at the polling -- after sandy hook and newtown, we doubt there will be a turning point. we got the nra was weakening. none of those things are true. it is not like there was not a second amendment absolutist position. the majority of people are more for gun rights now than they were three years ago. it is clear. mark: the democratic nominees for president, since blue bill clinton, have been people that are a little more aggressive on gun safety. one of the many questions about hillary clinton and how she will perform is what does she do about these issues because she will probably follow her husband's instinct which is s less aggressive. you can see every major republican presidential

candidate with one or two exceptions -- rand paul, chris christie -- at this meeting and basically speaking about the importance of this second amended. john: i think the key thing is it is true there has been thehat gun rights are on the march. it is a matter of salience for voters that care enough to vote about it. those people will vote republican anyway. those are not movable voters anyway. this is not an issue that is going to hinge on. mark: be look at this stage that will decide the election -- virginia, colorado, ohio -- those are very big. john: all states that barack obama one. won. mark: the poll numbers have shifted to some extent. maybe not as they were before but they have changed. john: the convention today was a good conservative bought annaroo. maybe like jumbo shripmp?

we will have a lot more to say about it when we come back. ♪

mark: the nra convention in nashville is wrapping up. to be didn't have all of you watch it, we did it for you. john: let's start with some hunting stories from scott walker. scott walker: i love to hunt whether it be with my rifle or shotgun or sometimes i use a good bow. i love to hunt. sometimes i think it is about the heritage of our state that has really been from one generation to a next about hunting and trapping and fishing. really, it is more fundamental than it, it is deeper than that. it is about freedom. when we signed into law concealed carry after the previous governor vetoed it three times, it was about freedom. when we signed a law about

something that has been talked about for years, it was my freedom because we wanted to people -- give people in our state the right to stand up and protect themselves and their families and their loved ones and their property. it is about freedom and we need more about that in america and that is what is at risk in this country. not just from this president but from people like hillary clinton and others. it is not just the second amendment that is at risk. john: was just frame this up. -- let's just frame this up. it has been a catapult. a lot of what we're looking at is how do these guys connect with the base? scott walker has been on a roll this entire year. that rolled up sleeves thing but that was a pretty good performance. he is speaking their language. he is talking to the issue and framing it in terms of the liberty agenda. some of these guys are basically doing speeches or talking with

stuff that did not have any integration of the gun message with the broader conservative fame. i thought scott walker did a good job. mark: he is probably the strongest of the people that spoke today in terms of audience reaction which is weaving the message. he is very comfortable giving that kind of speech to that audience. the fact is as we try to figure out where scott walker is going to play in this notion of india you going to play in the establishment bracket, the social conservative bracket -- yes the play with the most votes are. he has great support amongst gun rights advocates. john: that is why he is dangerous to a guy like jeb bush. the wisconsin thing, that seems credible. mark: as comfortable as scott walker was, today was another opportunity to see if jeb bush could figure out to give a prepared speech. today, the results were at best mixed. jimeb bush: it is the

worldview of barack obama and hillary clinton and eric holder and all that other people that want to take the guns out of the hands of the good guys and the hands of the law-abiding citizens. the second amendment is one area where the obama administration has run into a wall. that wall is the kevlar covered wall of the end our day. florida was one of the first states to make the castle doctrine the law of the land. if somebody enters your home and you fear for your safety, you should not try to escape first. before the law was passed jurors were told we were supposed to run away from your home rather than defend yourself and your family. we fixed that. mark: another great speech and he gave his florida record and gave good buzzwords. i have to say he is making me think that bush 41 was a better public speaker than jeb bush. john: he put me to sleep. mark: that is an audience that

wants to be fired up. john: to go to this is that establishment -- it looked like he was at the board room of procter & gamble or something. jeb looked lieke a ceo. mark: finally, let's take a look at marco rubio at the nra today talking about liberty. center senator centersenator rubio: we cannot restrict our enemies. my dad working as a bartender in a hotel and my mother working as a maid and startcock clerk, they were able to achieve the american dream. we going to leave our children worse off than ourselves? that is the question that would find this generation -- defined

as generation and i have an answer in mind. in three days in miami, i will announce whether i will run for president, for reelection to the senate or commissioner of the national football league. [laughter] mark: i love that cute little smile. he was good. he also did what walker did was go with a personal story speech with rhetoric that would appeal to the nra. john: he is a viagra free driven candidate at this point. -- biography driven candidate at this point. his family story is at the core of hisof his message. even his fans are saying he needs a second act because that story is one that a lot of people in the party have already heard. mark: rubio and walker probably the two strongest but nobody dominated in the first day of

speeches. john: coming up, the 21st century's r.w. johnny apple. jonathan martin will be here when we get back. ♪

mark: our guest is the jennifer lopez of political journalism and i mean he does it all. jonathan martin of the "new york times." thank you for coming back. rand paul announced this week and if you believe the media he has had a horrible week. what is your sense? is there gas between what the elite press are singing about him fighting with journalism and what it is actually happening in iowa or new hampshire were circlingor south carolina? jonathan: short-term we get wrapped up in what he said to this reporter or that report.

mostly voters do not care. in the short-term, does not hurt him. in the long-term, it does because it gets out one of his court challenges which is he has audiological issues but also performance issues. the fact is when you keep behaving like that on my television it is going to create -- live television is going to create -- mark: it is insane going into it knowing that this is your biggest weakness. not of what he did really helped him. he could not handle scrutiny. jonathan: that is one of the central challenges. you cannot apparently have discipline to basically go on tv, take tough questions and answer them at a civilized straightforward fashion. this is not a new issue for him. this goes back to his campaign for 2010. i note for a fact, his people have talked to him about it. he knows he has an issue because

-- for some reason, he cannot seem to restrain himself. john: here is my question -- a lot of attention has been given to the extent as to -- the libertarian rand paul which has become more conservative. there is this shooting in south carolina. he has made a huge banner issue out of criminal justice. when he is asked about it by what blitzer and other people, he backpedals. this is mostly wanted her signature -- one of your signature themes. a republican -- what is the strategic calculation behind that? walking away from the things that is both make you different when different is supposed to be your brand. jonathan: i don't think there is a calculation. i think he is a talented political performer, but somebody that is playing on a different level right now. john: a lower level? the minor leagues?

jonathan: it is going from playing on a pretty good high school battle team basketball team to playing in the final four. mark: it was very well done, right? in louisville? by the end of the week, you think he is stronger in your view than before his announcement as potential nominee or does the totality of the week make you think he is weaker? jonathan: he had a good plan for his announcement in kentucky on monday. if you asked him or people -- what is your strategy in the interviews you are going to do starting with the today show tuesday morning going through the week, i don't think he would have an answer. what was his goal after the announcement and was not clear to me. mark: moving to rubio -- if you

talked to people in the rubio camp and the clinton camp, you hear different things about is this a coincidence that she is going to basically announce on a sunday and he will announce on monday. both cancer trying to spin this as not either, this was a plan or great for us. is a good for marco rubio to have the opportunity to juxtapose himself with hillary clinton or is bad because he will be overshadowed? jonathan: it is not bad but it is not great to see it as a great thing. if you would had a ted cruz read a ride on the media like we had two weeks ago, yes. is he going to find a way to try to create a dynamic where he is this generational bookend on monday to her sunday announcement? yes. will it be effective? we will see. mark: how does he do it? jonathan: he makes changes to his speeches to talk about what she said on monday. it is a frame about his campaign

about why be a summary that reflects a 21st century approach to government. john: one of your colleagues wrote a piece about how the arc of rubio going from a protege of jeb bush tonelli potential rival. -- two now i potential rival. what made you think he is a plausible challenger against this guy -- jeb bush? what flipped the switch rubi for rubio? jonathan: jeb bush is as strong as marco rubio. it is a striking difference. i think rubio looks at that and said yes, jeb will take up a lot of the money but are there actual voters for him #the answer so far very early is to be determined. if you are rubio, you will give

him a shot. he has until late next spring. he has options. for now, jeb looks not vulnerable, but he does not look invincible. mark: can rubio beat bush and walker? can he go after them and take them down? jonathan: i think it is possible but he would need to help. mark: for you -- these debates. jonathan: you will have nine or 10 candidates at least on stage and it will be going after a comomon target. mark: i'm using the metaphor roller derby. where is rubio vulnerable? if people decide he is a threat where is his greatest vulnerability? jonathan: i think it is the immigration issue. on style, it is the question

about we have artie tried barack obama -- we have already tried barack obama wants, we will not try it again. a really good speaker, someone who is talking about generational change but did not have the kind of governing experience to back it up. the rubio folks will argue a different scenario -- he was the speaker of the florida house more policy innovations that obama. n obama. mark: it is been announced that rubio will do it interview after his event on monday. guess who we is doing it with? jonathan: sean hannity. mark: correct. jonathan martin, thank you. we will be right back. ♪

john: we are only on the twoube a half hour a day. we are on bloombergpolitics.com. mark: up next, "taking stock"

and on radio "bloomberg law." sayonara. ♪ . .

pimm: hello. i am pimm fox. u.s. stocks rallied today. the s&p 500 closed within 1% of its record, and the markets moved higher. it was helped by g.e.'s 10% jump coming after the company announced a $50 billion share buyback program. shares of netflix gained more than 3% in late trading after asking investors to approve a huge increase in the number of shares, a possible prelude to a stock split. former secretary of state and former new york senator hillary clinton is expected to officially launch her 2016 presidential bid on sunday.