arkets bring risk on. i.m.f. meetings are later this week. don't talk do rich people help poor kids get an elite education and excel. good morning everyone. this sis is "bloomberg surveillance" live from our headquarters new york monday april 13. i'm tom keene and with me is olivia sterns. we will get straight to the top head lines. olivia: hillary clinton says she is hitting the road to earn your vote starting her quest to be the first woman president. hillary clinton: i'm running for president. americans have fought back from tough economic times but the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top. every day americans need a champion and i want to be that champion. olivia: clinton is the first democrat to announce she is running. tuesday and wednesday she will campaign in iowa. another republican is expected

to enter the race today. marco rubio of florida is holding a rally in miami. that is 6:00 p.m. tonight. president obama and fidel castro met over the weekend in panama the first encounter in more than 50 years. president obama said that the two difficult on issues and can turn the page. the tphebgsnext big step is whether they remove the designation as state sponsor of terrorism. the obama administration will be selling the iran nuclear deal this week to a skeptical congress. cabinet members will have a closed door briefingor members of the house today and brief the senate tomorrow. he argued they should be able to negotiate a final deal before congress ways in. john kerry: we have earned the right with what we have laid out in this parameter that has been

set forth we have earned the right to complete this without interference and certainly without partisan politics. olivia: the senate is about to take up a bill that would give congress 60 days to review any final agreement with iran about of economic sanctions could be lifted. in china exports unexpectedly plunging by the most in more than a year last month. overseas shipments down more than 14% from a year ago adding to concern in growth that the government will do more to stimulate the economy. plenty of demand for the apple smart watch. delivery date is all the way to july for some. it goes on sale on april 24. tom keene is getting one. that is when delivery begins for devices ordered but some won't get them for almost three months. tom: not there yet. i'm just not there yet. i'm there with great golf over the weekend. jordan spieth went wire to wire to win the masters. what an effort across four

rounds the 21-year-old tied mr. woods's record for the lowest ever. he finished 18 under par defeating justin rose and phil mickelson really turned it on. that was great. mr. spieth won $1.8 million and will fit in green jacket. there is talk he could make something in the vicinity of $10 million a year in endorsements. we will see if eshe is going to. olivia: i think he is the new tiger woods. tom: you think so? i'm not sure. olivia: it is incredible how he held the lead since the beginning. that is enormous. it is pretty cool. tom: discuss me-- excuse me? crush. he is 21. he's like magnetic. what a great buzz over the weekend. i do remember how to do this

after taking a day and a half off. futures negative two. 10 kwroeurb -- 10-year yield .57. we have a real risk on field. nymex crude 52.50. then 13 14, 12.58. master complacency in the market and euro 120.73. dollar index making a dash. here is the euro trade weighted euro. here is weaker euro or stronger dollar. way off the trend. this is back 30 years. weak euro. weak euro and once more. olivia: how about this call from morgan stanley pulling for the parity. 98 cents against the euro which the end of 2015.

that means the poster woman has brought it forward to december of 2015. tom: certainly this is the market color in the currency markets. the hit must paper showing decidedly risk on with the new dash of euro weakness. politics leading the way over the weekend. the senator from new york secretary of state runs again. hillary clinton is the clear front-runner for the democrats but pin search of a tphunew tone and rationale. medical hreupb melinda melinda, i want to take you back to your work at the "dallas morning news" a few years ago and how does secretary clinton win texas? away from iowa how does she attack texas? melinda: i don't think that state is going blue any time soon.

i don't see that. but she has a lot of other states that are quite winnable we are hearing her described as the presumptive nominee business -- nominee which is both an asset and liability. 72% of democrats say they would love to see a strong primary challenger. tom: you look at the challenges with mr. rubio coming in this evening as well. are there any others to push against her or do you give her the nomination this morning? melinda: it is not up to me to give her the nomination but i would say that she's in an extremely unusually strong position that we don't see anyone right now that could take it from her conceivably. that doesn't mean that the unexpected happens in politics

all the time so that doesn't mean it is out of the question. olivia: there's been so much talk about how hillary clinton might try to reshape her image, whether she will play up the fact she is a grandmother and this will be a new softer version of hillary clinton. i don't know if you were watching -- tom keene was on the beach but i couldn't this on "saturday night live" showing how she would become more intimate. >> except for announcing the candidacy via social media we thought it would be fun if you filmed it on your own phone. that way you would be more personal and intimate. >> i better take off the jacket then. olivia: what did hillary clinton learn from the 2008 campaign she will apply to 2016. melinda: one thing she learned is the importance of staffing it

correctly. another thing was that she knows she has to from the very beginning and we saw this with the announcement video yesterday she needs to communicate the message that she knows she has to get out there and earn every single vote. that she doesn't feel that this is hers by right and doesn't. as "saturday night live" said -- or maybe it was the unonion campaign who said i deserve it. she can't communicate a sense of entitlement. she has to get across the message she is going door to door and house to house and work as hard as she can to earn the support that the presumption of her nomination is already giving her. tom: melinda thank you so much. we begin the week strong and now

the chief executive officer of dune real estate partners is with us. we will speak on education later but another wall streeter comfortable in supporting hillary clinton from bank of america. you are an active supporter of secretary clinton. do the people of new york funding somebody you are so comfortable with how does she adapt to the vast republican field? >> i think the relationship she made with people in new york she has a lot of credibility. i don't think for the tphorbgnew york supporters she has to do anything to change the way she acts. tom: what did you observe four years ago to say this is a change that you need to reconnect with the rest of america? daniel: new york is different than the rest of america. tom: in is a "bloomberg

surveillance" break folks. daniel: i think that the grandmother element i think being more personable and when sleeves more vulnerable she was more successful. i think that a hreullittle last time she may have played not to lose. olivia: a lot of op-eds focused on that she needs to mutt more meat on tkrb-- needs to put more meat on the bones. how will she difficult from president barack obama. daniel: a lot of things obama did and as we look at the economy an united states we are doing pretty well. i think continuing to pursue that will be positive. maybe she will have a different rhetoric as she explains the policies. i look at people that i work with i think a lot of it has been the problem obama has been his rhetoric as opposed to what he's done and hillary will be more inclusive and more about

bringing everyone together as opposed to playing people against each ear. olivia: but the -- each other. olivia: but a difference in tone? daniel: i think it is more about tone. tom: i will go short term two years out you are looking outside five years 10 years, 30 years out. last time everybody billed it as the economy election. the economy is doing pretty well. if we sustain that how does secretary clinton or senator rubio adapt to that? daniel: from a longer-term perspective looking at some issues we are focused on you look at the clinton video it was a focus on demographics. young, millennia getting people in the workforce. so they will be key to winning voters. tom: you saw the "saturday night live" and it sis focusing on

minorities minorities and women. i was on an airplane. was it morning in america? olivia: no a very quick question for daniel the convert question do you think a president hillary clinton would be got for wall street? daniel: yes i think it would be. tom: this is the angle of senator schumer taking over real leadership in the democratic party. for global wall street that is a pair very comfortable. daniel: they both have to support wall street but the middle class. olivia: schumer said commit is the most opaque person he's ever met whrfrplt do you think would a president hitter be good for wall street? ♪

tom: the presidential race is under way but many other stories in washington. right now the top headlines. olivia: hillary clinton's new campaign is going on the road after announcing candidacy in an online video heading for iowa where she started before. another republican senator is expected to join the race. marco rubio is hosting a rally in member. it was a brief but historic en counter president obama and raoul castro. the u.s. is reportedly widening its role in the yemen conflict. "wall street journal" saying

starting are being checked for saudi arabian air strikes and ships being searched for weapons from iran. rebels have overrun most of yemen. a new video shows militants destroying an ancient site. it dates back to the 13th century b.c. they posted this on line. and the space launch is expected this afternoon but rainy florida weather may get in the way. it packed with food, equipment and experiments including an he is press so machine. we remember the voice who was a fixture for years on bloomberg radio. he was diagnosed with brain cancer and he was 68 years old and i know tom he was a very close friend. tom: we will have more on this.

we have had so many comments. olivia: the obama administration will be selling the iran nuclear deal to a skeptical congress. john kerry and others will have a closed door briefing for members today. they will brief the senate tomorrow. for more peter cook joins us from d.c. how much support does the president have for this? peter: he's got enough support that he most likely will be able to defeat any effort in the senate to try to blow up this deal. it will be very close. these conversations that secretary kerry and others will have will go perhaps a long way to decide what the outcome will be. they are trying to reach out in particular to democrats who may be on the fence. skeptical democrats but not one to stand in the way of the president. olivia: as i was driving in this morning i heard that states

could effectively veto the deal. is that possible? peter: a lot of things could blow this thing up but the reality is that the president himself himself, the most important vote is the 67 votes in the senate. that is the number you have to keep a close eye on. if the president -- if the senate were to pass something without more than 67 votes that veto-proof majority then he should be pretty good. he should be safe. but the real question there are democrats who feel strongly congress needs some say. the question is how can they give the congress some buy into the deal without blowing it up. tom: what pageantry it panama over the weekend with the president and mr. castro. what does this go? within the talk of washington and our history with cuba what is the next step for president obama? peter: i think the next step is

in the next few days, perhaps a week or so you will hear a final decision on whether or not to take cuba off the list of state sponsors of terrorism. he's gotten the recommendation to do that and he has to go through the formal process. that is a big step because it sis not symbolic, it means cubans in the united states their mission could open a bank account. that is not insignificant. next is faster than people think will be embassies opening in both countries. i think that will be another symbolic step but an important step going forward. tom: it goes back to dwight eisenhower and richard nixon in 1959. this is before your time. it is before my time. olivia: president obama wasn't even born when the castro brothers took power in havana. in is a long time in the works you could say. peter, a question on how this fits into the broader regional strategic of president obama. it was like this might not be

happening if venezuela's government wasn't about to implode and kaoufb cuba wasn't worried they would lose a life line. peter: the talk was the u.s. president could have much broader impact on the hemisphere and so a lot more optimism than you might have expected. tom: peter cook, thank you sophomore. our twitter question has to do with presidential politics. rubio thisin this afternoon. will president hillary clinton be good for wall street? ♪

tom: a euro weaker 105.32. olivia is on a parity watch. but first the morning must read. olivia: you said it. it is from a bloomberg article stimulus spin rally back on. s&p only up 2% but it market maintain kwrafplt 14 out of 47 national equity bench mashes reached all-time highs. stoxx 600 has come up 21% as they started buying pwaopbdz shanghai composite up 25% on speculation the chinese government will do more. it is euphoria but it is the punch bowl. tom: that is an opinion we see. we have a person in commercial

real estate business and we will taubglk real estate. do you see euphoria. has it gone to the financing of large properties? >> there are certain properties trading at extraordinary prices. i think that while there is a euphoria there is a lot of concern in the sense that is this too good to be true and will it teupbcontinue. tom: isn't that healthy -- daniel: a little fear, yes. but i think the interesting question is while people are worried i'm not sure the behavior reflects that concern. tom: i'm fascinated within the theme of how much worry do you need? you have some worries but do we have a wall of worry within the market that olivia mentions? >> we look at water. we have close to 50 countries currently in a state of water stress scarcity. we have seen california four straight years in a drought.

last year it cost over $2 billion. you have major secretarytors. tom: how does that affect real estate? daniel: west l.a. is spectacular and san francisco is off the charts. olivia: they are all drink ging almond milk. tom: i have never tried t. will you get me some? can we go out for an almond milk? olivia: yes. would president hillary clinton be good for wall street? ♪

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bloomberg] [ tom: good morning, everyone "bloomberg surveillance." what are we watching? futures are negative three. and i would note the euro weaker the dollar stronger d.x.y. here 100. let's get to our top headlines with olivia stearns. olivia: hillary clinton is off to iowa beginning her second campaign for the white house and she ended her suspense on whether she would become the first female president. she used a video to announce she is running. she'll campaign in iowa at the

caucuses and president obama spoke of the woman he defeated in the 2008 campaign. president obama: she was a formidable candidate in 2008 and was a great supporter of mine in the general election. she was an outstanding secretary of state. she is my friend. i think she would be an excellent president. olivia: president obama was speaking in panama with fidel castro. and members of congress are skeptical of the nuclear deal in iran. this week the administration will try to change their mind. secretary of state john kerry and other cabinet members will hold a closed door meeting and brief the senate tomorrow. the administration wants to be able to negotiate a final deal without lawmakers interfering and was the message kerry sent on the sunday talk shows. mr. kerry: i think we have achieved what we laid out in

the parameter we set forth and earned the right to complete this without interference and certainly without partisan politics. olivia: the senate is about to take up a bill that would give congress 0 days to review a final agreement with iran before economic sanctions could be lifted. pope francis is wading into a controversy that lasted a century. the pope says the killing of armenians during ottoman rule in world war i was genocide. serbia rejected this charge saying the pope's statement cannot be accepted. armenia says 1.5 million people died in actions that amount to genocide. an activist is urging qualcomm to consider breaking up. they are being asked to think about spinning off its chip making unit from its patent business. the patent account from most of their profits show qualcomm is down 11% in 12 months. in orlando there's been a fatal

crash at a exotic car racing ride. it crashed into a guardrail killing the passenger and injuring the driver. they pay up to $400 to drive with a professional. disney is not commenting on the incident. tom: he's caught between two kings. poor john. the debut of "game of thrones" went smoothly last night for the most part and is the first time h. -- hbo's package has been offered outside a tv bundle. some sling tv customers reported delays and sing said the problems were reduced after updated software. hbo says four episodes of the show linked online hours before the day but reportedly were downloaded illegally 100,000 times including the keene household. it's exciting. the only thing i watch. the dragons got bigger. the dragons got bigger.

and it's "game of thrones" and a battle between two kings. olivia: who were you rooting for? tom: john. i would be thrown out of the house if i didn't. let's look at something bigger than well, maybe kings landing they are concerned about investing. consider a big pond filled with numerous black swauns and consider the view from 60,000 feet. the head of investing at merrill lynch, considering themes looking out years and decade. one of your great wall of worry is oil. i thought we're up to your eyeballs in oil. guest: you have to look at the fact that globally the demands will increase over the course of 15 years. tom: everybody is supply, supply supply and guys like you are looking at demand. guest: only 4% of oil goes into electricity around the world so what will the chinese do going to 250 million cars mountain

next decade when oil is priced at $20-$120. and is a huge hit. tom: this weekend we hit the 140th anniversary of apomatox and know the 30 years of reconstruction. if you did thematic construction in 1966 i would suggest it's really gloomy and yet ended up with a boom 60 years later. how can you be so gloomy if this is america? mr. nahal: you look at the performance of our top picks, areas like safety and security, obesity and health and wellness are up 24% since september 13, significantly outperforming the benchmark. olivia: what's your top contrarian theme? mr. nahal: we're seeing corporate spending and health and wellness in the food and beverage sector and we're aware of sugar taxes and restrictions on marketing practices. mainstream consumers are eating

healthier and we like the move to robotics and like renewable energy. tom: is the cloud a fad, is it a vogue or something bigger and broader? can you give a straight answer? mr. nahal: it's much more than that and you look at the uptake of the internet around the world and the fact we'll have 50 billion devices connected to the net by 2020. tom: do you go long i.b.m.? how do you play the cloud as a thematic investment. mr. nahal: for a lot of small to medium enterprises it's cheaper and more efficient to of move to the cloud than try to do this themselves. olivia: dab, these are all big overawaying themes, which one impacts your world? dan: oil has an important part in improving the economy in general and improving performance. in certain markets it will be an issue like in houston who

bet on shale development and is spotty in terms of where it will make a difference. tom: when you take thematic investment and go to may of 2014 can you long in the markets? mr. nahal: definitely. these are our issues. they are 5-25-year shelf life but at the same time the investors have to be on top. tom: what do you say, you're at a merrill lynch market and going 60,000 feed and somebody says i'm scared stiff i'm all in cash. mr. nahal: capital is becoming increasingly thematic and see it in the pension funds and the longer onlies and retail investors. millenals in the u.s.a. 3/4 list thematic investment a factor when making a decision. tom: thank you from the bank of america, merrill lynch looking out decades. olivia: i'm waiting for someone

to come on to chat up the inflation trade. as we head to the break, our twitter question of the day what do you think? would president hillary clinton be good for wall street? we want to hear your thoughts. this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom and i will be right back.

tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." the yankees crushed the boston red sox. season's over. we welcome you to bloomberg "surveillance." olivia: i'm so proud of you for admitting that. tom: season is over. what is it, april 13th. season is over. need a single best chart to get me out of my depression. olivia: while on the beach, g.e. capital selling off its real estate assets to blackstone for $23 billion. it's the largest real estate transaction since the financial crisis. the chart you're looking at on screen shows that u.s. commercial property prices are now 7% higher than they were during the 2007 peak. very interesting. with us on set is dan. what do you think of this deal, blackstone buying in a strong market, you think they overpaid? dan: i wouldn't think so. given it was a negotiated transaction both sides probably

did pretty well. olivia: how hard is it to find bargains in commercial real estate right now? dan: i think there's a lot of capital out there and i think that maybe you can pick and choose and maybe on a relative basis you can do better. but i don't think it's the bargains of the past five years. tom: exactly withstand it comes to the idiocy of people in residential plunking down money and don't know what to do with it as opposed to guys like you doing an analysis. is the cap rate analysis prioritized now or is there something new to do on a spreadsheet? dan: the a rith make particular is the -- the math is the same. and the question becomes how do you think cap rate shoes reflect what's going on in interest rates? but i think that clearly zero interest rates near zero

interest rates have made a difference in how real estate is being priced. tom: what overclouds everyone here is central banks giving it away. olivia: because everyone wants to buy an apartment when you can get a 30-year mortgage for 3.75%. how about what you and tom were talking about during the break what's going on with b-class properties? what happens? dan: you have to differen she eight the markets. -- you have to differenshiate. you need to keep your tenants. if you're no new york city or san francisco, i think having a b-class property in an a location is going to do really well. olivia: you buy malls anymore? or do you think people won't walk in them anymore. dan: the mall sector has done well. tom: when was the last time olivia stearns was in a mall?

hillary clinton was running for president [dan: one of our sons was 15 and said he went to the mall one day and he said, so what and he said he never had been to a mall before and when you grow up in new york, it really happens. but the mall sector at the top end where you have towdmon and simon, that's fine but what happens in a b minus mall is more complicated and has to remain to be seen how it works out. tom: are you doing these feet as or am i? i have photos of me on the beesm and -- beach and it's an ugly sight. olivia: our number three photo comes from spain. our world's first holographic protest took place outside a madrid parliament. this is not a cnn graphic but a real thing. there's a law that's been passed that said you can't protest but they put up a placard.

it will go in effect in july and more than 2,000 virtual images were used in the hour long demonstration. and they're celebrating in russia. orthodox easter. now this is in greece. orthodox easter was celebrated by firing rockets at churches. the tradition goes to the 19th century and churches participate in a mock war with thousands of rockets. local residents guard their home with chicken wire for protection. tom: very cool. i have to read about this. i have no idea the symbol. what is it, the crusades? olivia: no, because it's 19th century. i always love a good animal photo which brings us to the number one feet off the day. tom: first class.

olivia: koalas were given first class treatment to a photo shoot and flown to their new home at the singapore zoo and heard good things about them from our reporter. the koalas were offered treats including lemonade, gum treats and hot towel. tom: do koalas bite, dan? dan: i don't know. i haven't seen them in first class. tom: my whole thing is they look so cute they've got to take your finger off. olivia: they have big claws and the claw is more you should worry about. tom: they would bite me. olivia: i see the pictures of president putin and the recent g-20 in australia hugging the koalas. tom: that gets us started on a busy week with i.m.f. meetings. olivia: things you need to know monday morning. can everyone get a elite education? dan nydek stays with us.

this is bloomberg "surveillance" streaming on your tablet and phone on bloomberg.com o. >> today's "single best chart" brought to you by invesco.

tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance."

with olivia stearns. brendan is off today to a tax extravaganza. olivia: hillary clinton's campaign is hitting the road after releasing a video online to announce she's running and is headed to iowa where people say the 2,000 bid started to unravel. another republican senator is expected to join the white house for the race today. mark rubio is holding a rally in florida at 6:00 p.m. and the obama administration starts trying to sell the iran nuclear deal on capitol hill. secretary of state john kerry and cabinet members will brief members behind closed doors. they'll discuss a bill to force the president to give congress a voice in any such deal. also crossing the bloomberg terminal this hour an overflow crowd turns out in south carolina to mourn walter scott. the 50-year-old african-american was killed nine days ago by a white police officer. community leaders if north charleston are urging calm. the officer, michael slager is being held on a murder charge.

authorities in oklahoma release a video showing the death of a black suspect during an arrest. the man was fatally shot april 2 in tulsa and killed by a white reserve sheriff's deputy and the officers said he thought he was holding a taser not a gun, when he fired. and if you think air travel is getting worse, some university researchers say they have the numbers to prove it. a report out today shows more u.s. flights were late last year and more bags were actually lost. as you can imagine, customer service complaints were way up. and the man who threatened a nazi secret, his notes are going up for auction and is believed to be the only man you script. it is expected to bring $1 million and how he broke the enigma code was the focus of the movie "the imitation games." tom: i was looking at their space expect and it is cool the stuff they have and were

featuring the turring exhibition. they have verner zom brom after world war ii on a yellow pad and paper on a pencil, defining his peace program. he invented the b-2 rocket. just amazing stuff. what do we have to look forward to on bloomberg's "surveillance." gary langer will join us the american expert on the consumer and looking forward to his update, martin fieldstein will join us, must listen and watch with the professor on the state of the global slowdown. then i believe there's a presidential race to 2016 and we'll look at that through the hour with secretary clinton and governor rubio marching in in the last 48 hours forward and back. olivia? olivia: we've been promising a conversation about education so here it is. you look at the boardrooms across this country and you notice they are overwhelmingly white. this is a nonprofit on a mission to change this their goal is to develop a generation

of leaders who reflect the country's population. so far the results are impressive. harvard, yale and columbia are a few of the top skills that they have helped high school the get into and now is the type of year they have to commit. dan nydek was just on the board for prep for prep. thanks for joining us. it's a wonderful thing, lot of programs are trying to give educational opportunities to minority students and what are they doing that is working? guest: what's important is it stands for a comprehensive approach and we start with students at a critical age in middle school where they know enough about the exposure to know what they don't have and when they can access these top independent schools in the city and boarding schools in the northeast they can seize the day and rise to the challenge there. so i think we start with them young enough and stay with them all the way. tom: do you pay their tuition?

aileen: no, they pay upwards from there. olivia: how do you know it's working? aileen: we have more than 4,000 kids interested in 200 spots and it's harder to get in for prep for prep than harvard. that's an initial marker and we look at where they attend independent school and where they're admitted to college or college graduation rates and we acted on the front end, harder to get in harvard but on the other end more of our kids graduate from harvard. tom: four or five times a year someone throws something at you debating this and not about the anger but the reality of people saying it's so competitive and so tough, here's this fancy program really helping great kids who need this but nobody's helping the broad middle class advance into elite education. how do you as a board member respond to this, dan? dan: i think we try to focus on what we're accomplishing as opposed to what we're not

accomplishing. and i think the great thing is it does work and helps thousands and thousands of kids and think that's what we should be focusing on the kids we help through smart connections where we've had almost 800 kids. tom: how many kids in your program have choked? aileen: two dozen. dan: we're trying to create leaders. and it's important to help everyone but also important we create leaders of color. olivia: he said it's a comprehensive program and you stay with the students. give was percentage of what your graduates go on to do. aileen: they refer to it as prep for life and we have two rhodes scholar from your alma mater, burley and dozens of soros fellows and a top indicator of fellow success. tom: what's the secret sauce,

they can't play mine craft? aileen: we are clear with opinions on video games that this is extraordinarily high standards. tom: can you come over at dinner and yell and scream? aileen: we look at our own children and wonder if they'd work this hard and prep for prep has high standards and don't cut student slack and are expected to rise to the challenge and when they go to independent schools are at the top of their classes. olivia: can i ask about education reform obviously there's no panacea but if you could change something in the public school system, what would it be? aileen: getting more prep for prep alums. and the number one employer is the department of ed. tom: these kids do rigor, right? dan: absolutely. it's almost like boot camp. olivia: 14 month, they give up their summer holiday? tom: can you come back? olivia: tom wants to talk about stem.

aileen: if you look at the number between black and latino kids it's not fair and we're doing something about it. tom: i looked at a math problem this weekend and about died, how about this the euro weaker.

tom: road trip, get off the gulf screen. hillary clinton goes voter to voter in iowa. the spring i.m.f. meetings are this week. martin feldstein joining us this hour. the american consumer is more confident they are saving for a rainy day. good morning everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance." live from our world headquarters in new york. it's monday, april 13. i'm tom keen joining me is olivia sterps. brendan greeley off today. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: the suspense is over, hillary clinton is in the racened the former secretary of state has begun her prep for become president. she announced it online. hillary: i'm running for president. americans have fought their way back from tough economic times but the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top. every day american peoples need a champion and i want to be that champion.

olivia: clinton is the first democrat to announce she is running. on tuesday and wednesday she'll be campaigning in iowa, site of the first party caucuses. another republican is expected to enter the race. senator marco rubio of florida is holding a rally in miami. look for that at 6:00 p.m. a historic meeting in panama over the weekend as many are asking what is next for the u.s.'s relationship with cuba? president obama and president raul castro met at the summit of the americas and was the first encounter between the two countries in more than half a century. president obama said the two can differ and still, quote, turn the page. the next big step, whether or not the u.s. decides to remove cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorists. president obama will make that decision in the near future. and the obama administration will be selling the iran nuclear deal this week to a skeptical congress. secretary of state john kerry and other cabinet members will hold a closed door briefing for members of the house and tomorrow brief the senate. kerry appeared on all three talk shows arguing the

administration should be able to negotiate a final deal before congress weighs in. john kerry: i think we've earned the right in what we have in the agreement and what we laid out in the parameter that's been set forth. we earned the right to complete this without interference and certainly without partisan politics. olivia: the senate is about to take up the bill that would give congress 60 days to reveal any agreement with iran before economic sanctions could be lifted. in china there are more strains on an economy already slowing down. exports unexpectedly falling last month, by most with more than a year. overseas shipments were down 14% from a year ago and adds to concern of china's growth and there's speculation the government will do more to stimulate the economy. and plenty of demand over the weekend for the new apple smart watch. online preorders pushed the delivery date for some watches all the way back to july. the apple watch officially goes

on sale april 24 and when delivery begins for devices that have been preordered. but customers ordering some models won't get their watches for almost three months. tom: and in sports, it was a wonderful weekend of golf the masters for the record books, jordan spieth, 21-year-old from texas. . he ably ties tiger woods' record for lowest score ever in masters history. he finished at 18 under par, beating mr. rose mr. mickelson by four shots and won $1.8 million large and far more than that the ceremonial green jackets. he is one of golf's most marketable young stars and he can be set for $10 million in endorsements. i loved what karen krause said in the "new york times," the caption, mr. spieth, younger than four of the seven amateurs in the field. very cool. olivia: i think he's the new tiger woods, only five months older than tiger woods when tiger won his first masters. tom: for those of you on the

radio, that's a crush by olivia stearns. olivia: he's a little young. holey moley he's on a streak. tom: that's always a bad sign. let's look at commodities. looking at futures negative on the euro 105.32. it's a weaker euro over the last number of days and a real dash to parity or we'll speak of morgan stanley research with two announcements from morgan stanley and one of them is euro through parity ala through citigroup. the first lady, the senator from new york and secretary of state decidedly, hillary clinton runs again and different. she's a clear frontrunner for the democrats but a frontrunner in search of a new tact. melinda hannan berger spent years looking at the political derby, a senior require with bloomberg politics. i was thunderstruck by the delivery of the secretary of state. who is advising her? is this she and bill or is there a team of six?

is it like "game of thrones" and is there 10 people around her locked in a room saying no, do this? who is driving the van? melinda: i'm sure there are more than 10 people in that room and i'm also sure that it always comes from the top. the team always reflects on the candidate and on the principal. so she is running this campaign and yes, she's launching very differently from last time, in a much softer, smaller way, trying to get across the message that this is, as she said in the video, this is not about me this is about you, the voter. it's your time. tom: i read bloomberg politics and all the other rags, what i notice is there's no real definition of momentum. does she have momentum? i love this, olivia, driving the van down i-80 to iowa? are you kidding? she's driving a van? olivia: and calling it scooby. tom you've got to be kidding me. is this stunt for real?

melinda: well, i think that in iowa, people like to see you consuming that ethanol product. i don't know. van or no van i think that she really wants to underline that message that, as she said in the video, i'm hitting the road and i'm going to earn your vote each and every vote, i'm going door to door. you're going to see me many times and i'm going to do whatever it takes to earn that vote. olivia: marco rubio now looking like he'll be the third republican candidate to throw his hat in the race. we're looking for that announcement 6:00 p.m. this afternoon from miami. would he be a formidable challenger to secretary clinton? melinda: a lot of people think he has been underestimated and that he's very inspirational that he would certainly address the problem that the g.o.p. has had in presidential races with the hispanic vote, which was a

particular problem in 2012. for romney. i think that he is a fresh face and one of several people who republicans really are willing to take a serious look at. tom: thank so you much. melinda: it's such a wide open race. tom: it's only getting started. thank you so much. bloomberg politics. look for her workout at the bloomberg politics website. this is one of our most special guests and he won all sorts of cool award for polling. gary languager is with langer associates and is our comfortable guy and does the bloomberg comfort index, years with abc and now with us with terrific perspective. if you were having a cup of coffee with olivia stearns and tom keen what's the single thing in the polls now about us that's interesting? what's the one thing that stand out right now? guest: there's a lot going on and we're seeing changes of the economy and not to be

underestimated because they impact everything. tom: do they impact hillary clinton? gary: in 2008 change ruled. absolutely. people were worried about the condition of the economy and needed something different to happen. today with the economy improving, experience matters as much as change does. experience works much better for hillary clinton and change lasts well as we saw in 2008 and changes the dynamic right there simply because of how people are feeling about their economic prospects. economic attitudes are on the upswing. right now this week their best since before the recession and that's critical. it's critical to our politics. tom: what's great, olivia, with the polling has already started? olivia: how does the former secretary clinton's favorability compare to senator clinton's favorability in 2008? gary: clinton has gone up and down in favorability and peaked at 67% during her tenure as secretary of state. a great job for favorability. get the flag and wave it and

represent the united states. when she's in the fray, the to and fro of election politics, it's different. her rating was last this low when she last ran for president and is back down to an even split in favorability. she's gone from 67% to 68% down to 49%. olivia: what do polls say about gender? does being a woman tip the scale? gary: it's huge and not as discussed as it should be. if elected she'll be the first female president and is critical to her candidacy. women and minorities are her strength and the reason she's a frontrunner. tom: in pennsylvania she needs men to vote for her. olivia: white men in pennsylvania don't vote for her. tom: have we moved beyond four years ago? you talk about nixon-castro. have we moved beyond 1959 with our thoughts on a woman president. gary: it's not only for a woman president. the demographics won the vote. president obama lost by whites by 20 points and yet won the

election. this notion that marco rubio would take the hispanic vote away from the democrats is hard to support. tom: what have you learned about that? gary: take jeb bush against joey clinton head to head. clinton has 71% support among hispanics and look at that among rubio it's at least as high or even higher for clinton. being a hispanic does not in and of itself get you the hispanic vote. olivia: who is the last one hillary wants to run against? gary: jeb bush. tom: i learned a lot. olivia: so glad we could do that for you. still to come on "surveillance" we'll discuss the i.m.f.

tom: china brazil, even the u.s. is doing better but some wonder. martin feldstein is professor at harvard university and suggests priced easy money he would teach but man q threw him out the door a couple years

ago. wonderful to have you here. is anything going on at the i.m.f. meetings in the text books on international economics. martin: i think the i.m.f. meeting is worry building a problem that doesn't exist and focus on overall global growth. what matters is growth country by country and many countries are doing much better than you would think based on what madam le guard is saying. tom: let's keep it on an international response, would say that you are fearful of an inflation that hasn't shown up and that will show up. can you sustain that criticism for the united states if you've got these other nations struggling so much? martin: well, of course. if it's a question of inflation, that's going to depend on what happens in the u.s. we're basically at full employment. we have an unemployment rate of 5.5%. if you look at college graduates, the unemployment rate is 2.5%. so the pressure is going to start to build.

i'm not saying we're going to have runaway inflation but i think the concerns about deflation i think they don't make much sense. olivia: is this a one-way track, is the fed concerned about stability? martin: the fed is not concerned about financial stability, or if they are, they're keeping it a secret because it's not in anything that they talk about or write about. so they are basically focusing on driving down the unemployment rate. now at 5.5% to under 5%. that's not sustainable. tom: within the date, professor feldstein is the idea of what any central bank should do taking as a whole dragi kuroda yelling and the others, when they become more prescriptive, what's the best way to get the rates up, get them there quickly or a measured manner? martin: getting them there quickly could be destabilizing and is important to get them with started with the process

and start moving those rates gradually up. tom: i look at this. we could talk to him for four hours. olivia: we have martin feldstein in for a half-hour. start sooner and go gradual. tom: we'll hear about domestic policy as well and the debt. olivia: a lot going on in politics which brings us to our twitter question. what do you think, would hillary clinton be good for wall street. tweet us.

tom: good morning, everyone. "surveillance" in new york city. we have martin feldstein. but first we look presidential with olivia stearns. olivia: hillary clinton is hitting the road after posting a video online announcing she's running and is headed to iowa where many say her 2008 bid for the nomination started to unravel. another republican is expected to join the white house race today. marco rubio of florida is

hosting a rally in miami and look for that at 6:00 p.m. tonight. it was a brief but historic encounter, president obama and cuban leader raul castro met in panama and is the first such meeting between the two leaders of the countries in more than 50 years. also crossing the bloomberg terminal. the u.s. is widening its role in the yemen conflict. targets are being checked for air strikes and ships are being searched for weapons from iran. rebels backed by iran have overrun most of yemen. and a new video shows islamic state militants destroying an ancient site and wrecked parts of anymore rod with explosions. the city of mosul dates back 3,000 years and the militants posted this video online. a space x launch is scheduled in cape canaveral but rainy florida weather may get underway and is packed with food and experiments for the space station including an

espresso machine because there's an italian astronaut up there who needs a little pick me up. tom: you're not kidding? there's an espresso in space. olivia: on its way up. tom: let's get to physical analysis and demountainwestic economics. you'll need fingers and toes to who will be president. debt to g.d.p. mere anywhere aunra. martin feldstein has heard it before and served several republican presidents preaching responsibility. he knows if elected, free beer. there's the politics. you've seen all this before, haven't you? martin: yeah but i'm optimistic the debt to g.d.p. ratio, candidates understand it and hope that they will and hope that congress will deal with it after this coming election because we haven't been dealing with it for the last several years. tom: one of the things floating out is someone like paul crugeman, and at princeton, a

school in new jersey he would suggest we need to go back to 1936 1939, john hicks old keynesian strategies, you age reading this stuff. where is mr. krugeman off the mark? martin: he's worrying about a problem that doesn't exist and worrying that we have a big high unemployment rate when the unemployment rate is down to essentially full employment. so we don't need a fiscal stimulus at this point. five years ago, maybe. but not today. olivia: professor, i can't believe i'm doing this but because tom is talking about the 1930's others are warning if the fed raises rates we'll see a stock market correction like we did in 1937 and he's concerned the fed will go too soon and you're concerned the fed will wait too long. martin: that's exactly right. and what he points to is the fact that the stock market fell in the late 1930's, he puts all

the blame on the increase in interest rates but there also was a big tax increase at that time for social security, so we had a big jump in fiscal tightness, which contributed to the fall in the stock market. tom: gary langer is here with perspective on the consumer and i would suggest we're smarter about the pulse of america. guys like professor feldstein have better data through the national bureau of economic research. see how i got that in there? shameless plug. but guys like you can help the feldsteins of the world because we know the pulse of the consumer better than dalios 37. gare eye: people are living in this economy and for example, the public rating of the buy climate, it's a good time to spend money on things you need, went up by 2 1/2 points. we saw it rise that far 63 weeks out of the last 1,500. tom: is the fed behind, mr.

feldstein? martin: they're not noticing what's happening in the economy but focusing on trying to bring down the long-term unemployed, i understand that's a serious problem but they can't really solve it. there's no way that we can fix long-term unemployed by trying to sustain an unemployment rate below 5%. gary: a point to keep in mind, we talk about full employment at 5.5% but have underemployment and still is a problem and many americans are discouraged workers. many americans are part-time when they want to be full time. there's still some lingering effects. tom: is john edwards' tenure too early? gary: the income back is remarkable. we look at the consumer comfort index from 0-100, if your income is less than $50,000, you're in the 30's, 36, 38 on that. if your income is $50,000 or more, you're in the 60's or nearly 70 and is a huge

difference. olivia: if janet yellen should not be focused on unemployment, what should she be focused on? martin: among the things she doesn't seem to be focusousing on, she should be focusing on whether these very low interest rates, zero rate at the short end for six years, long rates, 2%, whether that's creating financial instability problems. high risk lending high risk investing. olivia: if you strip out oil, is inflation healthy? martin: inflation is ok. there's not a problem with inflation now. the danger is the fed has said they want to drive the unemployment rate down under 5%. that's not a recipe for price stability. tom: martin feldstein, we'll see you in the spring meetings with the i.m.f. with harvard university. olivia? olivia: this conversation brings us to our twitter question of the day. what do you think, would a president hillary clinton be good for wall street? send us your thoughts.

professor feldstein, would hillary be good for wall street? martin: heaven knows. dends on what she does and congress does. tom: that's called surveil an silence. olivia: tweet us, please.

tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." we welcome you all to new york city and welcome you to the bloomberg terminal. let's look right now at the euro. this has been a story the last couple days. this is the euro 30 years. here's the trend line which is ever slightly weaker and

trading the euro as weaker and here's the advent and deutsche mark invethed -- inverted. it's a brutal change but we're here. we're back down to two standard deviations of euro weakness. olivia: it's the speed of the change that caught everyone offguard. and how about the fact overnight morgan stanley came out bringing forward their call for parity and think we'll see 98 cents to the euro by the end of 2015 and plus think we'll see a rate hike. tom: it's rit cal they link hans work to ellen. olivia: she's been mrs. 2015 rate hike and they bring it forward. tom: that's the kind of catch-up they're bringing to wall street. is this euro weakness or dollar strength? i don't pretend to have an opinion. olivia: there are argumenting there is a structural short in the market and $9 trillion, a record amount in corporate and

sovereign debt in dollars that is going to come due the next few years and provide a bid for the dollar. there's a big dollar strength story. tom: i know bob cinch is adamant this is about flows of funds, money coming out of euro trying to find a start. olivia: it's interesting because actually the last couple weeks it's been good news coming out of europe. it's been relatively good news. tom: gary langer, senior vice president good news a we look at the consumer comfort index. let's take f.x. stronger u.s. dollar how do you link stronger dollar to the pulse of america? gary: what it does to our imports is a question, consumer sentiment is driven to a large extent by what people are experiencing in the marketplace. right now one of the drivers of improved consumer sent sment this notion it's a good time to buy things. inflation has been low and wages hasn't been great but if inflation is low people have been ok with it and employment is back up but if we have the strong dollar and impacts the

price of our imports, what will that do? it's a good time to spend money. tom: we'll talk to mr. langer about this throughout the hour. here's olivia stearns. olivia: hillary clinton is off and running and beginning her second campaign to the white house with a trip to iowa that started today. mrs. clinton ended the suspense whether she would try to become the first female president. the former secretary of state used a web video to announce she's running and will campaign tomorrow and wednesday in iowa, site of course of the first party caucuses, president obama spoke about the woman she defeated in the 2008 campaign over the weekend. president obama: she was a formidable candidate in 2008. she was a great supporter of mine in the general election. she was an outstanding secretary of state. she is my friend. i think she would be an excellent president. olivia: president obama was speaking in panama after a historic meeting with the

president with cuba raul castro. members of congress are skeptical with the nuclear deal in iran. this week the obama administration will try to change their mind. john kerry and other cabinet members will hold a closed door briefing for members of the house and tomorrow go on to brief the senate. the administration wants to be able to negotiate a final deal without lawmakers interfering and was the message kerry sent on the sunday talk shows. john kerry: i think we've earned the right through what we achieved in the interim agreement and what we laid out in this parameter that's been set forth. we've earned the right to be able to try to complete this without interference and certainly without partisan politics. olivia: the senate is about to take up a bill that would give congress 60 days to review any final agreement with iran before economic sanctions could be lifted. and turkey is accusing pope francis of disportion and slander. speaking of the mass at st. peter's basilica, the pope said the killing of armenians during

ottoman rule in world war i was in fact genocide. turkey has always rejected this charge and said yesterday the pope's statement cannot be accepted. armenia says 1.5 million people died in actions that amount to genocide. and an activist is urging qualcomm to consider breaking up. according to the "wall street journal," janet partners is asking qualcomm to think of spinning off its chip making unit from the patent licensing business. the patent account for most of qualcomm's patents shares are down 11% in the past 12 months. and in orlando, police are investigating a fatal crash at disney world's exotic car racing attraction. police say a lamborghini crashed into a guardrail killing a passenger and injuring the driver. customers pay up to $400 to drive exotic car with a professional driving instructor. disney is not commenting on the incident. and those are your top headlines. now let's give you a quick check of the markets before we open. you see u.s. futures are a little lower, s&p futures off

.3. after the s&p rose 1.7%. the euro, with a little weaker against the dollar now. nymex crude up 1% as the president tries to convince a skeptical congress about the iran deal. good morning, this is bloomberg "surveillance." i'm olivia stearns. here with tom kean it. tom: ken prewitt dying over the weekend. we've known he was very, very ill and this has been tough. here with michael. michael: you two were such a great team on bloomberg radio. tom: i was so intimidated by that voice. tom, just be polite. don't have a tantrum when you go in and ken didn't miss a beat. michael: ken was the pro and

you struggled and they put ken with you and it clicked. tom: we did bloomberg on the economy you did as well and of course huh decades of experience going back to ray vick and gorbachev. and here was this guy who was a radio guy, back, i think he did the civil war. i think he was appomattox. and we walked into a guy totally a class act and totally patient with me. we'd really get going. what's great about this we hope to give you a couple minutes, folks, some of the vignettes we knew. he would keep it under -- he was such a pro and keep his fury under guard whether it was politics or dealing with me. michael: anyone that knew him knew he was the ultimate gentleman and not only was he a gentleman he looked like a gentleman with his silver hair and tall proud bearing. he was the epitome of the southern gentleman. i'm not saying which side he probably would have been on had he been at appomattox since he grew up this north carolina. tom: i don't know which side he would have been on but it was a civil between us.

and as i said many times, it was almost a marriage where ken got the love notes and i got the hate mail. but within all this was the craft he brought into it is so different from what you or i do. he didn't do economics like michael mckey. he wasn't the sophisticate of the moment. he was a very common man. michael: the thing about ken, he knew what he was talking about and had done business news for years but he didn't get into the minutia. he remembered the viewer. he remembered the listener. the person who didn't know as much as you two knew and he was always after you and of after me to explain to people what was going on. tom: i look at brad hence or someone at sanford bernstein or any of the other people we would interview and what would drive me nuts i'd be going blah blah, rate of return, first terivetive and ken is going, ken, ask me something in english, please. michael: i'm talking to a lot

of people who knew him the last couple weeks and universally praised coming on with him, they loved to talk to him because he would bring out the best in them without getting into too much into the weeds and allow them to explain what people needed to know in order to understand what they were talking about. tom: if he didn't have his morning coffee, he was surly. within the grind that we do here, he needed it. you're doing bloomberg "first word" on radio and we do "surveillance." but the grind of it, he literally taught me better how to do three or four or five hours straight. michael: he taught you how to take a nap. ken: wednesdays he would be tom, you've got to stop doing that. you need a damn nap. michael: he'd go home and take a nap and then get out and do some of the things he loved to do. he loved to get out to the country and he had a place up in the mountains and loved to go fishing and some of my favorite stories from ken were about fishing and the time he spent on the rivers and lakes.

tom: of course he had stock lines he would bore us to death but one of the things you did was go to wyoming and he would say look for a trout the size of your leg. but he really did. he was the real deal when it came to fishing. michael: absolutely. and of course he was actually kind of a quiet, small town boy who made his career in the big city and did it so very, very well. tom: ken prewitt passing away. where is a surveillance kleenex. mike, get me through this, please. michael: well, tom, we've got to say goodbye to ken and thanks to ken for everything he contributed to us and to making our careers what they are today, and we wish the best to his wife. tom: we'll be back. more with bloomberg "surveillance" and talk to gary langer the pulse. the nation begin as presidential race through november of 2016.

what am i looking for in the markets? i'm looking without question at the weak euro. ken prewitt couldn't stand it when i talk about the weak euro.

olivia: good morning. this is bloomberg "surveillance."

i'm olivia stearns. here with tom keene. the sun has arrived and is sunny over the weekend. 21-year-old jordan spieth won the masters. and what a victory. spieth finishing at 18 under par. beating justin rose and phil mickelson by four shots. the 21-year-old won $1.8 million and of course the green jacket. matt miller was in georgia at augusta national golf club and unfortunately showed up in this pink jacket on set. matt: i don't have a green jacket but a lot of the members of augusta will wear a green jacket and pink tie and thought it was a fitting combination for my return to new york. it was honestly one of the most amazing experiences of my life. i got to walk with phil on saturday. he had an amazing round. i got a tour of the club from a very gashese -- gracious member there and got a hold a bottle of president eisenhower's wine and touch a table made of his tree.

so it was a very memorable weekend. tom: away from the tv grod cast done at like the sistine cap ell and waiting for the pope to walk in. away from the broadcast, what's the masters experience they don't capture in the wonderful cbs coverage? matt: one of the most amazing things i brought back from it compared to other golf tournaments was the u.s. tournament is there were far fewer people that go to the masters. they keep the course incredibly well maintained and keep it less crowded than you would any of the other majors. olivia: and very formal, no cell phones, no fishing. him matt: you can't bring them on the course and a 10 meter radius on the course where you leave phones and cameras and you don't get people taking pictures or a lot of selfies or a lot of noise. olivia: this is so exciting is jordan spieth the new tiger woods? this is just nuts. 18 and under ties tiger for the best performance.

matt: it was insane. the only part of it that was so nuts, really was his first round. he scored a 64 in his first round. had he not done so well in that round, he wouldn't have won the tournament. phil and rory both scored better than he did in the second, third and fourth rounds. tom: he uses the first name only. matt: sometimes i call phil lefty. olivia: what's up with the hat? matt: very sunny down there and obviously very warm and with the lack of hair, i need a little bit. -- you want to wear it? olivia: i want to wear it. tom: tell me about those that are grandfathered in. matt: that was the touching experience. ben crenshaw. he'd been down there for 44 years tom: he was the jordan spieth at another time. matt: he won after his first masters and had a couple

seasons of trouble and his caddie karl whom he helped save from a horrible medical event helped him win a second masters and embraced his caddie at the end of the final round and was an amazing experience and was the talk of augusta the whole weekend. tom: you look like such a tool. olivia: worse than me? tom: you look beautiful, olivia. olivia: our twitter question of the day, is jeed an spieth the new tiger woods and would hillary clinton be good for wall street?

tom: we welcome you to bloomberg surveillance. watching here in our new york city headquarters. right now we need our top headlines. here's olivia. olivia: president hillary clinton's campaign is going on the road after releasing a video she is running. she's headed to iowa where many say her bid for the democratic nomination started to unravel. another senator is expected to join the white house race

today. marco rubio is holding a rally in miami to hold at 6:00 p.m. this evening. the obama administration starts to try to sell the iran nuclear deal on the hill. cabinet members will brief lawmakers behind the doors. an overflow crowd was on hand to honor mr. scott, killed by a white police officer. community leaders are urging calm. the officer michael slager is being held on a murder charge. and authorities in oklahoma have released a video showing the death of a black suspect in an arrest. he was fatally shot in tulsa and killed by a white reserve sheriff deputy and police thought he was holding a taser and not a real gun when he fired. if you think air travel is getting worse, some university researchers say they have the numbers to prove it. a report out today shows more

u.s. flights were late last year and more bags were in fact lost. customer complaints were way up. notes written by the man who cracked a secret code is going up for auction and is believed to be the only manuscript by fu -- turring. how he broke the enigma code was shown in the movie "the imitation games." those are your top headlines. tom: matthew miller will speak of secretary clinton and her effort to become president front and center through the hours. matt miller zfers which diamond ring to buy. a guy like matt miller will go two or three carats and go large.

olivia: maria is a lucky lady. tom: look for matt miller to announce his engagement in the next hour. let's look at consumer confidence. gary langer of langer research. a lot to talk about resurging american consumer but there are nuances. you are so good at your weekly data that's your hallmark, not once a month but every week. what is the other half doing in america thought the elite buying this, that and the other thing, what is the other half of america doing right now. gary: consumer sentiment is up across the board and it's critical. includes personal finances and how people are doing in terms of their own finances and assessment of the spending. tom: you said we are underemployed. gary: that breaks by income. while we're up across the board there's a dramatic income break. tom: where is the break? gary: $50,000.

and linear but still hurting. tom: can we say "lynn yeah." olivia: gary, is this rational if rages are stuck in 2% rut? gary: of course it's rational. if you've got a job and prospects and doing ok financially, then the national economy is looking better. it's an ok time to spend money or save money and your personal finances are in shape. olivia: what about the election? gary: it's critical. when we had greater dislocation in 2008, people were demanding change, a candidate that would make this better whether they got it or not, it's taken a long time. now when you ask people what's more important, experience or new ideas, it's experience by an 18-point margin and dramatic change from what we've seen the last couple elections. and that reference works for a candidate. tom: let's fold in the politics what we do at "surveillance" and comes down to two americans

there's been a declining confidence back 15 years. it's better but are we back to normal and is it an optimistic two americas. gary: if it's normal it's not good enough. the new normal still has the striking vast wage disparate and why you hear clinton in the announcement and other candidates talking about working with the middle class about improving opportunities because there's still that sensitivity to the underemployed and those who are still damaged economically and have not gotten back yet. they do need to be brought along. olivia: we are still over a year and a half out from the 2016 vote, how accurate are your polls 570 days away? gary: they're accurate for the moment. olivia: what is the correlation between these poll results and what happens in a year and a half? gary: pretty high but would pay less attention to the horserace and more attention to the underlying factors we're talking about. the role of the economy in election preferences and where these candidates stand on the issues and preference on the issues.

we found some sleeper issues in this election, including support for government action on climate change and increasing concern to americans and one by which 2-1 the public prefers the next president to be one that takes action on this initiative. tom: olivia, i think you're on to something in this. let's rip up the script and get it on polling. we get to april of next year and year puts. olivia: here's the problem, one month before iowa, hillary clinton had a 20-point lead in the polls. and lost. gary: it's true. that was really encouraging because it tells us campaigns matter and issues matter and what the candidates talk about and how the public responds to them matter. these measurements are not meant to be predictive but meant simply to frame where we're at right now. tom: i'll go with that but how come i've never been called for a poll or ms. stearns has been called for a poll. gary: when we make a telephone

call, every cell phone in the country has the same probability of winning. you have better odds of getting hit by lightning. olivia: i don't know. tom: it's a disease and we're all addicted to the polls. gary langer is with the bloomberg comfort poll. we got a small response -- a huge response. olivia: the twitter question was what do you think would a president hillary clinton be good for wall street? here's some of the answers, first answer, bill created more jobs than any president since unless a tax cuting conservative gets the nod, it's hillary for conservative me. tom: interesting. that's really critical, can she get that vote or a margin of that vote. that's interesting. gary: bill clinton now has a retrospective job approval rating of 73%, better than he got at any other time. tom: how large are secretary clinton's negatives? gary: almost half the country,

46% sees her unfavorably overall and gets an almost even division whether she's honest or trustworthy and has an even division in understanding empathy. olivia: is she the most polarizing candidate? gary: no. she has polarization but weaknesses as well as strengths but her strengths are considerable. she's at an even split in favorability and every one of the him republican candidate, these republicans are underwater in favorability. olivia: number two, second answer, wall street has positioned itself to the point political parties have little relevance. the fed is not political. tom: it's there. you wonder about the political parties. you see what's going on in the united kingdom where there are eight parties. olivia: three main parties. it looks like they'll have to have a coalition. tom: it makes for good surveillance. olivia: a lot depends on what

she can do to wall street through congress. if she can, it will be more carrots than sticks. tom: it feels like today is the beginning. gary: it's unlikely she'll run for president by saying she'll be good for wall street. olivia: of course. of course. it's why it's a controversial twitter question. tom: let's get to an agenda. olivia, start us off. olivia: marco rubio, at 6:00 p.m. we're looking for him to announce his candidacy for the white house at the freedom tower and we are expecting a thousand people. i wonder what it does with the vote with jeb bush. does he split florida? what will happen. very interesting to see and how different from how hillary clinton announced. tom: madam lagarde i'll have a conversation with her as the i.m.f. meetings begin on thursday. olivia: quickly today the president tries -- begins the process of trying to convince

very kept cal congress he wants the political room to negotiate without iran getting involved. tom: this was really great, olivia. lots to talk about on a monday. olivia: did you thank me for doing the show with you? thank you, gary. gary: you're both awesome. olivia: you look so tan. we missed you. tom: it was rainy the whole time. .

ma good morningt. tyou are "in the loop": and i am met her. in for betty liu.

a great show for you this morning. we will get a take on a nuclear deal with iran as secretary kerry gets ready to brief congress later this morning. we are joined to discuss -- first, here is a look at our top story. hillary clinton is going back to where her 2008 rate went wrong. going to iowa for her appearances wednesday. the former secretary of state announced her campaign sunday in a video posted online. hillary clinton: i am running for president. americans have fought their way back from tough economic times. every day,