♪ mark: shares rise 11% in u.s. trading. flatlining at zero. manus: that is the inflation forecast ahead of the figures due out later today. a miss could see the uk's slide into deflation for the first time in five decades. caroline: president putin lift the ban on delivery of missile systems to iran. ♪

mark: welcome to countdown, i am mark barton. caroline:-caroline hyde. mark: the world's largest luxury goods company lvmh has had a sales search. -- sales surge. manus: equipment makers join the end and a --m&a action. caroline: it is a deal brewing and industry rife with dealmakaking. it is a deal that has been speculated about four years. could be buying alcatel -- no kia could be buying alcatel.

the deal could be announced as soon as this week. it would boost nokia's presence in china and the united states. you have 1.3 billion mobile subscribers. this is a real area of strength for alcatel. but their wireless network area would also bring to key players in the united states market verizon communications and at&t. the contract that they have bring in 25% of their overall revenue. key areas of growth. we could see them did not only for the wireless area of alcatel but also for alcatel as a whole making it the second-biggest player. it would be the second-biggest network equipment maker in the world after erickson.

let's take a look at whether no kia --nokia could even afford alcatel. we would see a 34% premium over alcatel's market value. what we have to keep in mind is that with the french -- will the french government back this. would it back a deal for the wireless assets or for nokia to buy alcatel in its entirety. previously they had said they don't want any m&a and had blocked key corporate mergers in the country. they are trying to protect french jobs especially in research and development. nokia has the cash as they sold

their device unit last year and completed that seven and a half billion dollar deal to sell off the devices they made. but also, there is now talk of selling their maps unit. suddenly this fuel the share price rally yesterday. let's have a look at what really was going on in terms of the maps unit. nokia is refocusing. the chief executive is really honing down on what nokia provides. 90% of the money comes from the networks area. they also have a research and development licensing area. but one key player is the maps unit. valued at some 2 billion euros overall it could generate 2

billion overall if it sells this area off. four out of five navigation tools in cars uses the maps unit to navigate. who could be interested? it could be over -- could be uber. even german carmakers have knocked on their door asking about this particular asset. they've also been looking at private equity groups to potentially sell the maps area. that would bring in 2 billion euros would help in paying for alcatel, whatever size they buy. remember, they bought it for $8 billion in 2008. quite clearly, this is an area that has lost some of its overall strength. they had difference in strategy

as they lost their had last year . back to you guys will stop -- to you guys. mark: just a few weeks to go before the u.k. election. what will their plans mean for the economy? jamie murray joins us now. let's kick off with economic data today. will the u.k. escape deflation once again? jamie: roughly 50-50 i suppose. what you see is a wide range of views. some people see it going up. the reason for the dispersion of views as people don't know how the oil price will feed through or continue feeding through the prices.

we know that fuel prices are no longer falling so that will not be pulling the inflation rate down any further. you want to keep an eye on what is happening with that. manus: some significant risks year rj? -- aren't they? we have had people saying we're not a very productive society and we are losing our productivity here in the u.k.. the debate is how much slack is left. i suppose the second risk is that if you have zero inflation does that push into wage negotiation? jamie: the committee is currently quite divided on where they see the risks of those wage negotiations. you have the one side which seems to be quite can turn -- quite concerned, and you have

most of the other members of the committee on the other side. i think the view that inflation will have a significant effect on wage negotiations is mainly a marginal one on the committee. in april, we will find out -- that is when 40% of pay settlements are in the united kingdom . caroline: what are all the implications of these figures feeding into the election? jamie: we have done some analysis on what the parties'plans are. for labour's plans, they are offset 121 --one to one.

labor would cut spending a lot less than the tories would. these are nontrivial -- manus: labour and tory would be 100 million pounds of part -- 100 billion pounds apart in terms of spending. jamie: that has applications for the guild market and monetary policy. if you don't cut spending as much, you don't need as much monetary offset to stabilize the market. mark: jamie, thank you for joining us today. bloomberg intelligence chief economist. we are hosting the grant thornton is this election debate, live from the british museum. anna edwards will moderate. liberal democrat shadow business

secretary vince cable and nick foles make their cases to the british business community. manus: rushes lifting a ban on the delivery of a missile system to iran, drawing objections from the u.s. and israel as new talks continue. the timing of the withdrawal could give russia a commercial line to iran if economic sanctions are lessened against the islamic republic. the russian foreign minister said the ban is on a voluntary basis to begin with. lavrov: we are convinced that at this stage there is no longer need for such an embargo. manus: let's get straight to hans nichols who is in berlin. when you look at this, it is the timing of it. it is spectacular in terms of

what pugin is doing -- pugin is doing. hans: what you have from lavrov is him saying that this was done in the spirit of goodwill. they insisted it is about stimulating progress in those very nuclear talks that concluded, at least limited early concluded, on april 2 in switzerland. what lab rock is insisting is that these missiles will not be pointed at israel. >> the s-300 is a defensive weapon that cannot serve offense of purposes and will not jeopardize the security of any country, including of course israel. hans: the u.s. were pretty measured in their criticisms. what both sides agree on is that the 2010 you and weapons ban does not include a ban on the

s-300. what you are really seeing, and you saw this overnight in washington, is that republicans in congress are seizing on this issue to talk about obama's and russia's intentions in this negotiation. many are saying this is just about russia seeking a commercial advantage when the sanctions are lifted. ultimately this will be decided when these talks reconvene, if you do have a deal by the end of june on iran's nuclear framework. the foreign minister, mr. lavrov and his counterpart work here in berlin for talks on ukraine. that wrapped up last night ahead of this g-7 summit in germany that starts later today. manus: what actually came out of the foreign ministers meeting in berlin? it us a bit of a context on that. hans: it went five hours long.

there is a joint statement from all four parties. that is france, germany, russia, and ukraine. they expressed grave you -- grave concern about the situation in ukraine. there are separate russian media reports that ukraine and russia had agreed to some sort of limit on small caliber weapons in eastern ukraine. perhaps the most negative out of all this was the german foreign minister who talked about the cease-fire being close to being in tatters and a real danger of an escalation of violence. manus: hans nichols in berlin. caroline: let's take a look at some of the other top stories. greece has denied a report that it is preparing to default. a paper reported that the country would withhold payments if no debt deal is reached with creditors.

meanwhile, the singapore dollar climbed after the central bank kept its policy unchanged. that is following unexpected monetary easing back in january. florida senator marco rubio has announced that he is running for president in 2016. the republican candidate is a son of cuban emigrants and at 43, would be that u.s.'s youngest and first latino president. the world's largest luxury goods made her -- goods maker lvmh shares are up 30% this year, helped in part by a weaker euro. mark: you can join the conversation on twitter today. tell us what you think of the show, the stories you want to hear more about. manus is t @manuscranny

caroline is @carolinehyde and i ma @markbartontv. it is what hundred and 50, so it is actually conservative relative to the imf. caroline: the economy is remaining the focal point. if you have been renting, now perhaps they want you to buy we'll stop manus: we are looking at deflation. we will ask our next guest that could do to the pound. they with "countdown" ♪

♪ mark: welcome back to stop -- welcome back. what could deflation mean for the pound. a senior fx strategist at ubs is here. they think inflation will move towards the 2% target.

does the deflation mean anything for the exchange rate or is it a purely symbolic move? >> i think the bank of england had seen much of this coming. in a speech earlier in march they actually started talking about exchange rate pass-through. that was generating an excessively strong currency. i think the bank of england will welcome that. they will go back to the language saying that it is more transitory right now. caroline: today, we also have bank lending. talk to was a little bit about how this is feeding into what is happening in the united kingdom? geoffrey: one of the things that

the eu is trying to do with qe is forcing european money out to other markets. the most liquid currency with a nonnegative yield curve. maybe the u.k. has actually enjoyed a bit too much money coming in which is generated strong sterling as well. it is kind of unwelcome. within the eurozone itself, the survey does show the conditions are continuing to ease and that complements the signs of recovery we're seeing in the eurozone right now. if you look at pmis reflation is happening in the eurozone. manus: on the eurozone debate we have reports on greece preparing for default and greece denying those reports. the market is short of euros.

if the markets every balanced in terms of central banks, what is the debate gekko -- what is the debate? geoffrey: so many clients have asked us that if the market is too short on euros, but we put out the valuation argument saying that the euro is probably too cheap right now. that is a force as well. the second question that clients will ask is if the ecb will and qe early. i think they are committed to this and their outlook is predicated on seeing out this program. greece could throw some spanners into the works. manus: we will ask you a little bit later what you will be looking out for. ♪

♪ caroline: welcome back and still with us is the senior fx strategist at ubs. we have had a big week in terms of the eurozone and we have a ecb meeting tomorrow basically expecting nothing more to happen in terms of interest rate cuts.

what are we going to get from mario draghi? geoffrey: one big part of the central bank austria's is to extend a positive message. -- central-bank's role is to extend a positive message. i think he will be asked about greece and he will try to be as diplomatic as possible. it always get down to the politics at the end of it especially when it comes to tricky questions. i think other central banks such as sweden, norway, are looking for signs of adjustment. sweden has done intermediate -- intermittent rate cuts and qe. no additional news from the ecb on easing side. they should be under no illusion that the ecb qe is not here to

say. manus: more qe from the japanese? geoffrey: the next few inflation figures will be essential for japan because now we get clean numbers without the tax rise. if that starts to slip, then i think markets are looking for more qe enforced in the second half of the year. five-year inflation expectations are still 1.6, 1.7. not that great, especially when they said five years ago that they were watching qe to get to 2%. yes, they can get that but is that healthy inflation? all you need is a seven recovery in oil prices and that will slice margins in japan.

the dollar yen correlation could break. i think a stronger yen is because of oil and energy in general. manus: thank you very much jeffrey. ♪

♪ manus: time to check in on the foreign exchange markets. it is 6:30 a.m. in london. the singaporean central-bank has decided not to soften the position in the monetary market. the monetary authority of singapore. you're seeing quite a significant move on the day. you have the singapore dollar rising with the dollar falling.

they have joined the australians, joined the indians in terms of just hitting the pause button in doing anything more with their currency or intervening. they tentatively their currency. the amount of business that is being done out there is nowhere near the normal levels. last week, out of the g 10 currencies, there was only one above normal volume and that was the hong kong dollar. singapore is hitting the pause button. dollar-yen, we also had this conversation with ubs. dollar down, yen rising on the day. what you have is one of these advisors to mr. abe says there is no need for the dollar to fall much further. it is going to come down to what

they call clean numbers in terms of inflation guidance from japan over the next couple of months that will guide what happens next with the bank of japan. sterling is down by 18 again. -- 1//8 again. today, the bank of england will release the consumer price index. has the bank of england dodged the deflation bullet? will it hold off on raising rates in till next year? back to you mark. mark: the international monetary fund ahead of spring meetings on friday in washington has issued numbers today on the global economy. one german official says greece

will be stuck on the sidelines at the meeting. an official says that last autumn a flash crash in u.s. treasuries could happen again due to the changing nature of the u.s. government debt market. the executive president of the federal reserve bank of new york urged investors and banks that a sharp intraday price move could be, more common. after citing concern he concerts -- citing could security concerns the lng plant in yemen halted supply. google is getting ready for the eu to decide how to proceed with the four-year-old antitrust probe against the company. that is according to people familiar with the case.

the eu has been investigating allegations that google discriminates against rivals in search results. you can find more on that story at bloomberg.com. caroline: another day, another deal. nokia is in advanced talks to buy assets from the other equipment maker alcatel. they need the approval of francois hollande first. men well, we have heard about --manuel, we have heard about this deal or a while, why now? >> this has been a rumor for a long time and it seems like now is the perfect timing for this. there are big discussions

between nokia and alcatel on and off for the last few years and now they have seemed to come to terms. one of the biggest hurdles you mentioned was actually in the government of france, who was approached -- who was opposed to the transaction before because of jobs and research cuts that the transaction would imply. now seems to be the perfect timing. we also have two companies that are in better shape than a few years ago. nokia is in a much better position. manus: let's talk about the money. nokia to do this deal might have to sell their maps business for about 2 billion euros. how would they do this deal? is that integral to doing this deal? manuel: i think it is not

crucial because they already have about 5 billion euros in cash. they would have a big chunk of cash to do the deal and they can structure the deal in shares too. i think it is not crucial to sell maps. that said, what they want to do is streamline the business and focus on telecommunications equipment, so i think what they really want to do is focus the strategy and that is why they have been struggling with the maps software unit for a while competing with the likes of google. they just realized that they prefer to focus on one business. mark: what further consolidation can we expect in the console it -- in the tech industry gekko? manuel: tech has been quite interesting because here in europe we have erickson, nokia

alcatel. we have seen some deals in semi conductors, for instance, or other bits and pieces. i think tech as well as telecoms and media will see more deals in the years and months to come. manus: this gives them a bigger exposure to the u.s. players and this is the crucial part. netgear does not have the scale to win those per -- when those contracts at the moment but putting the two companies together gives them a better chance. manuel: i think telecommunication companies have been suffering a little bit. their profitability has been suffering and they just need to combine, and that is one of the main reasons why they have been merging in the past few years. i think the exposure to the u.s.

and to china will help nokia but i think the business will face more challenges. mark: thanks manuel. manus: let's turn our attention to germany, because the hanover mass is to be the latest in robotic gadgets. on display this year is the first robotic kitchen. ♪ >> we are making a crab dip today. we start off by sauteing some shallots and melted butter. it cooks exactly how i would be cooking it. >> he knows how to cook, he won tv show master chef.

tim anderson has every right to be scared stiff but machine in front of him. >> it does the exact same thing the right way, every single time. i've 32 thick of it as the ultimate sous chef. -- i'm starting to think of it as the ultimate sous chef. >> it is programmed to cook a dish precisely how tim has made it. the system features a dexterous hand used by nasa. the possibilities of combining robotics and every day tech that we are already starting to take for granted. the recipe can be downloaded from a library, enabling a hold of digital infrastructure. but if you are not sure about trusting a machine with your sharpest kitchen knives, they say there is nothing to be scared of.

downloading someone's ip from anywhere around the world should be more than just recipes. >> it is unlimited. this is why the machine should change our lives. >> the company kept quiet about how much the machine currently costs. they've been working on it for about 18 years. but they are hopeful that they will be able to start rolling it out for $15,000 in only a few years. tom gibson bloomberg. mark: join the conversation on twitter and tell us what you think. one of the trending topics is #righttobuy as the conservatives launch their manifesto.

david cameron will look to offer one .3 million poor families a chance to buy their own home. that is trending. and don't miss the business debate moderated by our very own anna edwards. @carolinehydetv @manuscranny @markbartontv. caroline: we will ask our next guest about the one thing none of the u.k. parties are talking about. ♪

manus: 73-year-old eris of the fashion and perfume house ricci has been sentenced to prison after being found guilty of tax fraud. she was caught in a massive leak of names. florida senator marco rubio has announced that he is running for president in 2016. the republican candidate is the son of cuban immigrants and i-43, it would be the -- and at 43 he would be the youngest u.s. president. the japanese prime minister as

indicated that the yen has appreciated enough. they tried to spur inflation that is stalled. mark: 23 days until u.k. voters head to the polls. one issue that dominated the cycle this election is the relationship to the eu. the possibilities of a greek exit might be on people's minds, but foreign policy has not entered the pre-election debate too much. why is that? robert: this is one of the most dangerous times and foreign policy we have had in decades. you have the iranian nuclear deal syria, is.

i think it is partly because there is not enough distinction and differentiation between the parties of what they would do. britain is in a rather weak position to change any of these outcomes so the own have anything to do, you don't go there. caroline: we see the rise of ukip coming to the fourre. robert: i think britain is still in a post-iraq mode of being skeptical of any kind of intervention. libya ended up being an absolute disaster in terms of the outcome. the british public looked at military intervention in a skeptical way. we have done some polling that shows that the british people

still think of britain as a great power. as one of the members of the un security council, keeping its nuclear capability. they still think of it as being able to intervene, they don't like the way it has intervened recently. the public is more skeptical about military intervention, and especially in the middle east. manus: whoever gets into power whether it is one of election or two will have a new president to deal with next year. and that special relationship with the united states encompasses everything you are talking about because it has everything to do with how this country acts in the middle east. robert: this special relationship has been a touchstone of british foreign policy for decades now. david cameron has talked about wanting to back away from it a bit. talking about commercial diplomacy, reaching out to china and india. taking a different view of

settlements in israel. they use the phrase essential relationship as opposed to special relationship. so we have a government that has been a little bit more skeptical of the u.s. we might see if there was a labor government that might say that we should reengage a little bit. manus: in terms of britain being the poodle of the united states and the middle east. robert: the conservatives have to worry about a ukip instinct that is anti-american as much as it is anti-european. the anti-cosmopolitan approach has often seen britain as being a poodle. daily mail readers are quite skeptical of u.s. leadership and david cameron has played that angle quite well. mark: you say we are one of the world's major powers but it seems as if politicians do not

seem to bother on the surface of defense spending falling below that crucial 2% of gdp level. if that trend continues, can we as a nation help peace and stability in the world when you are spending less as a proportion of your gdp? robert: people are thinking constantly, how do you measure influence internationally? does having a larger army and defense capability make much of a difference? the united states is the largest defense spender in the world but has not been able to change things as much as governments expected to in the past but has focused on spending in international development and aid. i think, at the moment is defense the absolute guarantee or not? probably not in terms of influence. but when you are a permanent member of the united states -- of the un security council, one of only five countries.

your air force has been cut and your army may go down 60,000 troops. your ability to offer deterrence diminishes. it is not so much that defense capability is important today or tomorrow in terms of being needed, but it is being able to provide the deterrent capabilities. caroline: someone might need to tell the scottish national party that. they want to potentially scrap trident. that means one key would actually want to move away from this sort of deterrence. robert: i think it is interesting that none of the parties aside from the scottish nationalists are against the idea of keeping some kind of nuclear capability in the british armory. there is a difference among parties about how many summary you have but even the liberal

democrats have come around on it. i think no party wants to be called out on foreign policy. they want to fight the election on the differences at the economic level which are severe. on trident, you will find the snp as an outlier. manus: let's talk about grexit because that is european policy. cameron has had changes for us to vote on but not much success in currying favor in europe. the relationship is becoming more strained. where are we in that debate if cameron does exceed to power? robert: i think david cameron and the coalition government had been slowly moving forward to the point that they would need

to announce to the british public if they win the election. they just don't want to talk about it because it is not big enough to unite the conservative party and not big enough to keep off a ukip challenge. on negotiations, there is actually quite a bit of openness to changing the way that they deal with caps on migrants. it gives you a little room for maneuver. not letting workers in, but on benefit caps. there is a push to have a larger role for national parliaments. there is a new commission which is the most pro-british in its reform agenda that we have seen in decades. i think david cameron could probably say that he got most of what he said he would try to get for you but he got that at

intellectual suicide from the point of view of the conservative party. if there is a victory, how do they keep the conservative party together and do a referendum. caroline: coming up, we will be looking at our favorite stories from bloomberg digital output. ♪

manus: some say the box office could be the biggest ever this summer in the united states. mark: disney has the latest marvel film and that is against the new jurassic park. can't wait for them all. manus: not to look like a jerk -- how not to look like a jerk when you are wearing your new apple watch. turn off your notifications. it is darn rude to look at your watch, look at your watch. respond quickly without shorthand and don't use syrian republic --use siri in public.

caroline: and alaska airlines flight took off from seattle and an employee was still in the package area. back in a moment. ♪

mark: new network play. they are making a bid for wireless assets. manus: the inflation forecast ahead of the figures later today. this could see the uk's slide into deflation for the first time in five decades. caroline: russia risks escalation. germany warns of a breakdown in peace talks with cease-fire violations.

mark: welcome to countdown. a weak euro means a strong start to the year. a 16% sales surge with a billion euros in revenue. we discover the appetite for european lunch. >> this time, it is the telecom business. will they do a deal with no kia? the question is out there. the have enough cash on their. that is for sure. the other issue will be whether it takes market share. it looks like it would. along with that, it has the maps

business. it is caroline hyde with the story. >> they discussed whether they could sell assets to each other and we understand it could be announced as soon as this week. buying the wireless assets, in particular. the unit brings in cash. 4.7 billion euros. and clearly, the reason they want to get into this is boosting exposure to china and the united states. strong in europe and asia. they want skin in the game. suddenly, if you inherit that, you get to key players.

another one is at&t. we know that wireless may not be bought. +++ lucent as a whole. erickson trumps the likes of quality -- of huawei. it is one third higher than alcatel lucent. the overall valuation is bigger. notably, we have to see if the french government will back it. will hollande say yes to the

deal? there has been concerns with the corporate mergers in the country. we understand the government officials are there and try to figure out how to predict in france. interestingly, they have been building up and selling assets. it is to the tune of simplified billion dollars. now, it might be selling a unit. this is a story the have exclusively. it suddenly saw a rocket in share price. people started wondering why they are doing this deal. are they exploring it? this is phenomenally widespread. also, every four out of five navigation systems are provided by no kia.

it does not bring in all that much cash. also, carmakers are interested. it could value the entire unit at 2 billion euros. compare it back to the a billion dollars they had to pay back in 2008 when they bought the company. it is an area that has lost value and it has been tumultuous. they saw the top at the home of the unit step down and also, whether they would be focusing on consumers or enterprise focus. there is a fair bit of value. nonetheless, it is clear that even if they don't sell it, the have offloaded the overall mobile phone unit to microsoft.

this means they could well have the splash and seal the deal. >> just over three weeks to go. we are seeing the rollout of the party manifestoes. what does it mean for the parties? let's talk about the economic data is and just the economic data and the price data. any chance it will flip into deflation? >> yes. well, yes i think we are looking at a 50-50 chance. you look at the surveys for flat prices and there is the use among economist. the reason this is there is because people do not know how much it will affect the broader range of goods. we know that fuel prices and stock is falling.

so, really, the fall the pens on this. manus: the other big debate is the slack in the economy. we talk with non-bia economists. mark: we are caught with data in the kingdom. -- in the united kingdom and it is pre-much a straight line from the early part of the year. it went out half a percentage point. we are looking at a sign for wages and it eroded entirely.

we'll get some more points and at the end of the week, they will give us wages. they don't know much about the pay settlements. caroline: tell is about the implications of all of this for the elections. how different are the parties with what they have to play with? >> they are limited in the sense and people are moving on from the aunt that. the difference is substantial. you look at the stated objectives of the labour party and it targets investment. you look at the conservatives and the difference between those is quite large. you look at the parliament and

it could be within the range of conservatives. caroline: wow. manus: talk about that from the election point of view. we have numbers at 100. you are at 100 billion. the disparity is huge. the market does not think you will get a rate hike until next year. mark: we have consolidation to offset. the policy changed coming in. mark: good to see you. bloomberg intelligence's top economist. why his analysis is saying that

you take election is less scary. stay tuned to bloomberg today. we are hosting the business debate and museum. the liberal democrat shadow secretary and nick f boles. they make their cases to the british community at 8:30. manus: russia is lifting a ban on a missile system to iran. the timing of the withdrawal could give russia commercial lines to iran, if economic sanctions are less. the russian foreign minister says it is voluntary.

>> we are convinced that there is no longer a need for the embargo for a voluntary russian embargo. manus: let's go to hans nichols. what does this mean? more interesting is why they are doing this. it really is saber-rattling all stop that is my interpretation. >> that is the interpretation from congress and the republicans who are critical of the deal stop russia is saying in this year it of goodwill they want to stimulate progress with the talks. they are insisting it is self-imposed. the iranian missiles would not he pointed towards israel.

>> it is exclusively a defensive weapon which cannot serve offensive purposes and will not jeopardize the security of any country. mark: republicans seized upon this and criticize russia. the criticism from the state department and john kerry was measured and he spoke with his counterpart yesterday. they say they agree with the russians and that the 2010 van did not include the missile system. the selling and releasing of these weapons was always voluntary by russia. it will complicate talks. the other criticism you are hearing is that this is just a way for russia to get their foot in the door. if sanctions are lifted, remember we have the preliminary agreement.

he needs to wrap things up by the end of june. will be waiting for when the g7 gathers. what the iran issue is doing and the issue in the ukraine. >> talk to me about the minister meeting and what came out of that. what was the sentence? >> we had statements from ministers and in the ukraine that warned of a situation in eastern ukraine. mr. steinmeyer, the german minister, -- russia and ukraine say that they made an agreement in preventing the front lines. maybe a little bit of optimism.

steinmeyer was negative. the cease-fire is close to being there. >> thank you for being there. >> the top stories on bloomberg this hour. greece denies that there preparing to default on a payment. it was reported that they would hold payment if no debt deal was reached. greece said creditors are not preparing for the scenarios. meanwhile, the singapore dollar climbed and the central bank kept the policy unchanged. separately, the government announced growth in the economy empty analyst estimates. the florida senator has announced that he is running for president. he is the son of human

immigrants and would be the youngest and first latino president. a 60% increase in third-quarter sales. the world's largest luxury growth maker saw success in the americas. shares are up 30% this year. >> tell us what you are following today. tell us what you think of the show. hillary 2016 is trending and it would be david cameron's take tallest the announcement today. caroline is that caroline hyde. do not miss the debate. just over an hour. >> and i will be analyzing that. mark: in association with us here. manus: you see the trend.

mark: coming up, bailout talks continue. greece is on the way out of the euro. we will find out why after the break.

caroline: welcome back. greece continues the bailout talks. the next guest says we should

brace ourselves. that is a from the chief executive of armstrong investment managers. that is your long-term view. i do not think it will happen within the month. there will be a span of negotiations to relieve the funding. it will be a long process of negotiation. their other countries and, after winning the voters -- >> they like that in spain. >> absolutely. if it was a greek exit, i think we would be there. now, we have the bigger picture and it is something that is bothering the equity story and

the initiative at this point. mark: is it containable? >> it is. we have the benefits of qe and good impact on the equity markets. it is growing at 1.5%. the negotiations in the system. >> it is front desk it is in front of the quarter. it is around the periphery and 25% higher in some of the take markets. you cannot top that. >> think the market is nervous about the big story and we see a

bit of politicking ready. and we have equity for exporters and it is an issue. the price is 30%-40% higher than in europe. now 60%-80%. chinese buyers used shopping in europe and hong kong. the company still has to adjust the prices. the equity is one of the main themes and it is along with japanese equities. caroline: you talk about china and putting money in chinese mainland stocks and you worry

about a bubble forming. caroline: china is one of the causes. mark: it is 19% higher. you could recall that. caroline: clearly -- >> clearly monetary policy is helping and all counterparties are counter to government entities. it is unlikely we'll see a shock in the system because the borrowing increases. they are not through with the defaults and there are developers facing trouble because they are constrained because of offshore funding. we could see worse levels. the have been trying to change the quality of gdp to

consumption growth and the current incentive is 35%. that will increase because of investment decline to gdp. to really succeed in both, we need to implement easing up monetary policy and people have to feel comfortable that they can spend and they need more systems. china still has a long way to go. mark: come back to japan and you say the policy is working. there is little inflation. how on earth can japan reach the target. it is push back another year. mark: it is not within easy

reach. they also are working on the wages and they are implementing growth and what is working in japan is the corporate restructuring story. we have improved transparency and the three arrows seem to be on the right track. caroline: -- manus: i read a telegraph article yesterday. the german bonds. >> the german bonds. they are not the main by. we have an exposure. manus: let me rephrase it. the worry is this. you have government bonds and the whole world is crowded into sovereign debt. the bond yields in europe are

negative. it is crowded when inflation comes. you get the one gate and they'll want to go through the gate and you have a crisis. you have a market crisis. it is getting dangerous to participate in the bond markets. >> yes. also, there is a large amount of those that are about to mature in the short term. the question is where the money is going to be reinvested and i don't think it is going back into the same. i think, when you consider the investment across asset classes, the favorite asset class is u.s. equities over time with german bonds. caroline: many feel that they are topping now and you still think there are equities that

are a buy. mark: -- >> even after growth, multiples look good and they are increasing the market share. especially in the light of the slow chinese growth and the recovery in japan and europe. the margins look good and the revenues are strong. there is pressure on the whole story. it is not performing as well as european equities. i would still go long. caroline: wonderful having you here. thank you very much for your time. manus: a weak euro means strong sales for luxury companies. one of those, we will focus in. did you buy a watch or did you stick to fashion. all the details. as i said, join us on twitter.

we are all there. join us and tell us what you think and what you think of the calls commentators have made today.

manus: welcome back. time to check in. another central bank decides not to act and these are the singapore monetary authority using currency as a way to ease policy and the economists we surveyed suggested there would be no further action this month by the monetary authority of singapore. when you have is the dollar rising and falling.

why? growth outstrips where the market estimated. the market thought it would grow and it was colossal from singapore. they joined and hit the pause button, in terms of action. everybody is waiting for june and september. they say the current seas had an analysis piece and volumes are dropping below normal levels last week and this week and the volumes are below the long-term averages. it happened with the dollar yen and you have the dollar down with the yen rising. one of the advisors to abe says

that 125 is not justified and, if anything, he suggests that 105 is the appropriate level. there is no need to really force the inflation target. why do any of them have a 2% inflation target? stephen ion the dollar sterling. it is down and, will we dodge the deflation bullet? that is the question. we have numbers at 9:30 and 10:30. 0% is the number we are looking for. mark: the imf used the outlook on the global economy efforts. global growth meets 5% in 2015 and 2016. a german official says that greece will be discussed on the sidelines of the meeting.

a senior official warned that the flash crash and the u.s. treasury could happen again because of the changing nature of the government debt markets. the executive of the federal reserve urged investors and banks to revise their guidelines . it could become more common. reporting from the only liquefied national -- natural gas plant. clashes between rebels and the coalition are worsening. tribal fighters seized posts. google is getting ready for the eu to decide how to proceed with an antitrust probe against the country. that is according to people familiar with the matter. they have been investigating allegations of google discriminating against rivals

since 2010. you can find more on the story on bloomberg. >> it is a strong u.s. dollar and it has helped a sector out. the world's largest luxury good maker reported a 60% increase in sales. talking about what is behind the robust numbers, talk to us about the results and the watches. they saw a real pickup in sales. >> that was certainly better than expected performance on a divisional basis. it grew at three times the rate anticipated and the drop in wine and spirits was not as bad as people anticipated.

overall, total sales were in line with estimates. as you pointed out, the week euro helps tremendously. the translation affect is really helping drive revenue growth forward. caroline: they are saying that if fires on more cylinders. what about the rest of the industry? does it mean that they are also seeing the growth? >> i think there are a couple of reads. you have what they are doing with their business and they have been taking a series of self-help measures to navigate tougher economic act drops. it has notably been repositioning the contributes -- what contributes to the process. it seems to be happening with

expensive products and the exclusive image seems to be translating through the top line at the moment and that is positive. there is a read across the industry and what is interesting is that volumes are up overall and that is in spite of the fact that there has been a 15%-20% value drop in china. some of the cheaper blends are helping to drive growth. >> when it comes to leather goods, you go higher end. what about it going forward? are we expecting a ramp up in asia? >> that is right. in the second half of the year, we will see the acceleration of sales. at the moment, we have organic

growth of about 3% and it should be seen in perspective against the third quarter. vat hike caused a flurry of activity in the run-up to that. organic growth is seen accelerating and it will be helped by a pickup in jewelries and in sales. i think that analysts think the trend will come to an end. that is what we are looking for this afternoon with the presentation to the analysts. caroline: thank you very much for bringing us all the insight on that. mark: top on to twitter if you fancy having a comment with us. we are all there. what you make of what the russians are actually up to, in

terms of the self-imposed ban on missile the terrence to iran? thatcher bringing home ownership. that is another revolution on the way. mark: you had help. up next, our hong kong stocks in a frenzy?

mark: time for the bart chart. the hanging saying rose. it was the best-performing major global benchmark over the five day and sent the index to a five year high. the index rose the best winning stretch since july of last year. the yellow circle is the point i am referring to and it is the starting point. the index is one of the best-performing global stock markets. is up with inflows from china that have propelled another index in china. it is the enterprises index.

it is the gauge of shares. it scored 23% and is the best-performing global benchmark out of the ones tracked at bloomberg. they will converge with the mainland and chinese stocks as measured by the composite, have risen 93% in the last 12 months on the speculation that the policy will do more to support growth. they are using the exchange link to hunt for bargains in hong kong. to assess the extent of the frenzy, traders have never been so bullish on the stock market. surging demand for contracts has been topping it gains.

analysts struggle to keep pace with the surge. international holdings expects the index to hit 32,000 by june and be up from barely 28,000. there are warning signs. be aware. a technical indicator signals the gangs -- the gains could be overdone. 8.6 on friday was the highest since 1993. it signals the gains are overdone and the shares could be up out to drop -- could be about to drop. on a violation basis, it is trading at 13.3 times the projected earnings. compare that to the s&p trading at 17.3 times the projected earnings.

it is much cheaper, relative to the other benchmarks. it is a chart usual keep an eye on. manus: anna edwards will host the election debate from the british museum in the middle of the u.k. party manifesto mania. the conservatives released a manifesto about a right to buy and the potential homeowners having a funder. it is causing quite a stir. good morning. >> good morning. welcome to a british museum where we are hosting a debate about the conservative manifesto . manifesto mania gripping the electorate and the business community. it is a great time to host this

debate. we expect to hear the conservatives about the extension of the right to buy. more families are being taken into the plan and they are getting housing accommodation. it will be paid for by local authorities being given the instructions to sell off viable property assets and use the money. that will raise 4.5 billion pounds. real echoes of margaret thatcher. it was a cheap policy of thatcher and the have look at that policy as something to build a home owning culture and create a working tory one.

this is an extension of it and take into account millions of families. conservatives have dreamed of building a property owning democracy and he will try to sell this as being the party of the working people. will they be speaking with a different vocabulary today? manus: your panel, i tweeted it out earlier, you have the #and your guests and yourself. >> exactly right that you can get in touch if you want to during the debate. the room is lonely right now. it will be filled with businesses and finance chiefs from the businesses with people who know fiscal responsibility when they see it.

we will talk about this with the assembled. you outlined them. incidentally we invite you to be part of this event. you can watch us live on bloomberg television on the television or bloomberg.com. we have all the basis covered and we are talking about things that really matter to finance directors. and we will get more details. this is the week that nigel was

challenged to aid tool. i do not think that u.k. politics needs that violence right now. manus: a shake down there. enjoy the day and we will join online and on tv. caroline: let's check in with what the city of london looks like. we have told minutes to go with trading. it looks like a pretty flat one. it is --

>> welcome back. it is confirmed by no kia that they are in talks to buy the entirety of it. they confirm the talks with agreements and transaction. they are talking and they have advisors talking with government officials to negotiate on prospects to protect a mystic research. overall, a 36% valuation and

simplify billion dollars. it does have some money and it could be selling out. more telecoms and consolidation. on that note, all things markets and -- >> vodafone and they have the cash burning a hole in their pockets. we may see a pop in their shares. mark: are you getting nervous at

the levels? >> i have been nervous for some time. we have the ftse around 7000. mark: we are on. >> obviously telecoms and mining is quite a good area. the valuations and the distressed assets. back to last week, they had a tough time of it with the lower prices and the copper prices.

the companies are best geared for that and, a few years ago, i don't think they have talked. it feeds into a wider narrative first small mining companies. they will get doubled up. manus: we get inflation data and it is expected to dodge the deflation bullet. >> i think we could see a negative print of 0.1%. if not this month, next month, let's not forget the energy price caps. they took effects destined affect on the 28th -- they took

affect on the 20th. we had results this morning. aldi is the sixth largest u.k. supermarket. as we look ahead to this month looking at tesco later this month, they are going to be heavily in. manus: we are looking at more write-downs. that was the story. >> you look at the food retail sector and they had a significant balance. the tesco shares are off the lows and there is a little bit of a pullback there. there is more scope for a squeeze of margins as we head into this year. manus: thank you for joining us. that is it for countdown. it is on the move next.

wrong person, wrong show. no kia has confirmed they are in discussions to buy the whole of alcatel lucent. what will it mean for the gear makers in europe? that is discussed next. .

jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. moments away from the start of european trading. a little bit out of the rally. the ftse 100 dropped 25 points. the stoxx 600 makes a fresh all-time high. your stocks a little bit weaker. dax futures up. this morning, strict your morning brief. we are watching the telecom space. nokia is in advanced talks. in luxury lvmh catches a euro tailwinds. the greek government denies the

country is preparing to the vault area negotiations with the eurozone continues. u.k. inflation. inflation data is due out in 19 minutes time. consumer prices are expected to stagnate. in just 30 minutes, keep her right here on bloomberg for the u.k. election. from the british museum is coming right up ahead of the open. we are a little bit weaker. a little bit weaker yesterday on the ftse. we traded lower. it was i we will try to lower. manus cranny has a pretty -- it looks like will trade lower. manus: these equities have had the best quarter since 1998. slightly lower open as equities are any seven-year high. china lowered money market rates. i had the gdp figures tomorrow. will the u.k. dodge the