beneath the headline data with jpmorgan. america is divorced from reality , the cost of attending olivia sterns eight wedding. it is tuesday, april 14. i'm tom keene. brendan greeley is off. eight weddings or nine weights? brendan:olivia: i want to 13 weddings last year. marco rubio says it's time for his generation to lead america during he held a rally in my auntie to say he is running for president. he is just 43 years old. he did not target any of his republicans. he went after hillary clinton. >> a leader from yesterday began

a campaign for president by promising to take us back to yesterday. yesterday is over. olivia: clinton makes her campaign debut in iowa today. by traveling by van she stopped to eat at eight to pulling and was not reckoned ties. john kerry will try today with the senate. kerry said he had hopes he could clear up misconceptions. >> it's good to be able to discuss with people what is really contained within the parameters and also to lay down some of the work that we have left to do. we have two and a half months more to negotiate. that is a serious amount of time

with some serious business still to do. olivia: congress must review any final plan. the senate committee may vote on another would give congress the power to reject the deal. russia is being criticized for lifting its man and air defense missiles to iran. they could be used to protect iran. talks are underway for a huge deal in the telecom industry. note the a once to -- no kia wants to acquire a french company. it could be valued at $14 million. in tulsa, a 73-year-old volunteer has been charged with manslaughter in the killing of a suspect earlier this month. he fired his pistol by mistake instead of his taser.

he is white and the victim was black. the lawyer says it was obviously a mistake and he should not have been charged. a baggage handler who decided to take a nap got more than he had bargained for. it he woke up in the air. it does not in the cargo hold of an alaska airlines plane. when the jet took off from seattle, he woke up and started banging on the wall. listen carefully to video captured by a passenger on the plane. >> olivia: the captain declared emergency return to seattle. the man was found safe and sound. he was taken to a hospital and has been released. tom: that is fascinating. he won't live. esther brady should stick to football.

he should stick to the day job. he threw out an embarrassing first pitch at fenway park in boston. it's obviously the off-season and no arm strength at all. are you kidding me? that is an outrage. on the other hand, he does have another super bowl trophy. the red sox have had fever. we think it will be over in april. olivia: was it deflated properly? tom: bob kraft could've thrown the ball better. that's true. i could just see you launching the orbit. it's a long way to home plate. it's much farther than you think. it's not softball. it's harder. they are telling me in the control room to get today to check. what the you think hillary ordered, pinto beans or black beans? equities bonds, let's go to

jpmorgan's in the next hour. the euro and a crude be a focus in this hour. the vick is showing 13.9. the euro yen is what the pros watch. take out the dollar. this is a stronger yen versus the euro over the last number of days. let's look at german tenure bonds. let's go over to the terminal. this is with the pros are looking at. take the 10 year yield for the u.s. and subtract out that german yield low. it is cyclical back to german reunification. because of that lower german yield and the relatively high u.s. yield, we aren't two standard deviations out. this is only the second time since unification.

olivia: this is the widest yield in 25 years. it's just incredible. tom: money will flow from the euro through parity. it will come to the united states. another idea here is linking this. olivia: that is just wild. we surveyed a month ago average economists think it's going to be a spread by the end of the year of 198 points. i don't know if that's in the cards. tom: it's three digit tuesday. olivia: i thought it was standard deviation tuesday. tom: the markets are most interesting in light to central bankers data dependency. this is the spring meeting of the imf. jon ferro is in london.

we've been talking about this for days. we will talk about swiss in a moment. why is the german yield at 10 years owing to go negative? >> inflation is nowhere to be seen. rates at the ecb are -.2%. i would say bring up the twos, threes, the force. the ecb can combine all of that stuff. it is trading below that threshold. anything below zero is ridiculous. anything below minus two point set, the ecb can't even buy it. tom: the canary in the zurich coal mine we were in dallas for that big announcement. you can see the massive move. it bounces back. it's rolling over again. olivia: it's back to where it

was. tom: it's rolling over again. this is deflation. why is this? >> rates in switzerland minus .75%. they could not defend it anymore. they collapsed. i spent some time with president thomas jordan of the swiss national bank. we had a chat. he tried to talk it down. it did not work. that is the problem for the swiss national bank right now. they are fighting and every week to euro. the euro swiss parity, forget it. that swiss franc strength is ripping apart the swiss economy right now. for the next couple of months, things are going to get difficult for the people of switzerland. olivia: this is at a record high. we've seen economic news

surprise on the upside. where are we on corporate earnings? >> a big luxury player had earnings out overnight. you translate those sales back to euros, you get a little more bank. i think that will play out over the next three months we compare that order of euro strength last year to witness this year. going forward, that's going to be the story. forget the translation. people want to see real bottom line growth want to strip out the effect of the euro and demand. how you going to get that pick up in europe? the bar is very low. the consumer in europe still looks very weak. tom: thank you so much from london. we will continue this discussion throughout the week. let's look at the effects here on oil. it's gone modest in anxious stability.

attention is turning to demand dynamics. there is a deck called a speculation. the price component. we have been given terrific ideas. are you still on the guard for a new lower price? guest: we think we are near the bottom on fundamentals. we expect there is going to be volatility. we still have the oversupply. what is happening now is we are moving into transition where we are going from storage bills to storage draw. that is happening for three years -- reasons. production is starting to slow. we think is still growing. it may be turnover. we think is still growing. it would not be surprised to see month-to-month declines. the underlying story that is not getting attention is the rise in crude runs. tom: what is accrued run?

guest: they are starting to run harder. we have added a couple hundred thousand barrels a day. what we think will happen between now and summer is one million barrels of a day being processed. if the refineries are running a million dollars a day more, that is 7 million coming out of storage. it stabilizes the price. what it does is the combination of the slowing of the production side and we are going to draw out the bottom. we are putting less on the top and pulling up more out of the bottom. that starts to squeeze the supply/demand balance. we start get the market back in bounce. it will stabilize. tom: is he wrong that we can't get to $20 a barrel?

guest: we don't see how you get to $20 or $30 or in the demand is growing globally. when i think may be the point is the volatility. every coming of storage report that top sis on the downside like last week, you can expect a downward movement on the oil price. as you work the next couple of weeks in the fundamentals get firmer, you get that back up. tom: it's that was to have you here. this is going to kill you on the wedding circuit this summer. olivia: because plaintiff gets her expensive? tom: have you had? olivia: i have no friends getting married in europe this summer. tom: it's a busy summer of divorces. olivia: at least we are having a conversation about oil demand and not simply supply. our twitter question of the day

marco rubio sets up a battle for rich donors. he is going against his mentor jeb bush. we are going to follow the money. we are streaming on your tablet, your phone it, and bloomberg.com . good morning. ♪

tom: good morning. we are in new york city and its gorgeous today. it's been a very or just april so far. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: we begin with marco rubio who says it's time for his generation to take over. the republican announced he is running for president. he is the son of cuban immigrants. hillary clinton is and i were

this morning remaking her first campaign stop. john kerry will make the case when he meets with the senate today. he made the same pitch yesterday to the house and some lawmakers insist that congress should review any final plan. for ex blackwater security members will face long prince terms. they were sentenced yesterday in the shootings of 14 unarmed iraqis. the rest were given 30 year terms. the nigerian president is not promising a return of more than 200 schoolgirls abducted. they were kidnapped one year ago today. their whereabouts are not noted he's unsure if they can ever be rescued. and missy international says they been forced into battle or sex slavery. amazon a harpercollins are turning a page.

they struck a deal covering sales of print and e-books. it puts too bad a long-running dispute. move over peter parker, you've got competition. the french spiderman reached the top of the dubai skyscraper over the weekend. he used only chock and tape on his fingertips to climb the semifinal story tower. the thought of you scaling a building is frightening. tom: we've got a step stool in the kitchen. let's look forward to what we've got today. it's a busy day. we've got skip york with us. he will tell you it's not midland texas in the 80's. the cost of saying i do olivia demanded that we do this. she's got oil future hedges with

all of the summer. on we go to yahoo! and women and pay in the technology sector. right now politics or in olivia: marco rubio is the latest can to announce. he explained how he is different from the current administration. >> they are busy looking backwards. they do not see how jobs and prosperity today depend on our ability to compete in the global economy. our leaders put a city disadvantage. by taxing and borrowing and regulating like it was 1999. olivia: he has a message to donors as he makes the pitch that he is a fresh face in a crowded and expensive republican primary contest. julie, how divisive is this for

florida? who are these floridians going to bankroll? >> i think they love having the spotlight. there is plenty of money in florida. there is no denying jeb bush is going to lock down a lot of those donors. marco rubio is going to look to some of the newer money in florida. olivia: talk to us about the personal attention. i read that there was a shakespearean twist. these are two people who have been very close. they live two miles away from each other. this jeb bush feel betrayed? >> i do think he feels betrayed any more than i feel marco rubio feels betrayed. jeb is annexed -- unexpected entry. marco rubio has been trying to go down this path way. tom: i look at chapter three of

the next epic florida is the shakespearean tone. what i get here is junior senator from an important state and he is in the single digits in polling. i think i've seen this before. what can he learn from what the president did eight years ago? >> he's got to hope for some that same enthusiasm. tom: do we observe the tone that we saw with the obama race nine years ago? >> i don't think so. he's got to have a couple of things shake out his way. he can hope for jeb bush to stumble a little bit. he has not even declared this point. his message needs to start catching online and fuel some of those restaurants donors that obama was so lucky to count on. olivia: we have so many questions. can hillary when florida?

>> that's going to be a great state to watch. already, the floridians are laying the groundwork to keep the state in their corner. tom: she can get rid of the pythons in the everglades. they have snakes in the everglades. olivia: it's the alligators on the golf courses that are bothering the donors more than the stakes in the everglades. this brings us to our twitter question of the day. what are you looking for in bank earnings this week? we will be covering jpmorgan's earnings. wells fargo will be reporting. we want to hear what you think. ♪

tom: good morning. it is april 14. that gives us back 150 years to 14 are. -- for dear. president lincoln founded an escape from work. one place he frequented was the new ford's theater from the white house. he wanted to watch rehearsals and his spirits were refreshed. this is a wonderful comment. this is a photo of the atlantic magazine did. this is the single best photo i've ever seen. to get up close to it. he aged dramatically in the final year of his life. read this.

we're going to bring back read this. david herbert donald. this is a spectacular one volume from 20 years ago. this is the one volume to read. i just reread it. one of the major takeaways is i need to read more about henry clay. i am ignorant about henry clay. it's a great book on the important day. olivia: no more talk of henry clay. we discuss what $50 oil might mean for the lone star state economy.

her solar and moon survey bloomberg bloomberg bloomberg and lou tom: talk about dinosaurs. we will talk about that on bloomberg television drug today. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: marco rubio says he wants to make helping the poor of public an issue. his generation can do it. he held a rally in miami. he is running for president. he is just 43 years old. he is the son of cuban immigrants. he wants to create jobs. >> if we reform our tax code and reduce regulations and control spending and modernize our

immigration laws if we do these things the american people will create millions of better paying modern jobs. olivia: his campaign slogan is a new american century. he is a fresh face in what is shaping up to be a crowded republican field. the senate is ready to prepare president obama and his nuclear agreement with iran. they may vote today to give congress the chance to weigh in on any final deal with iran. president obama has vetoed through -- to threaten that measure. john kerry briefed the house yesterday. he wanted to clear up misconceptions. >> it's good to be able to discuss with people what is really contained within the parameters and also to lay down

some of the work that we have left to do. we have two and a half months. that is a serious a lot of time with serious business still to do. olivia: many house members are still skeptical of the deal. the iraqi prime minister is looking for financial aid. he arrived today and will meet with president obama today. he will meet with the imf and executives of the american banks. they want to retake territory from isis. isis is losing ground in iraq. militants of loss control of up to 6500 square miles. they have gained territory in syria. for a corporate america's biggest names are teaming up to make it easier to analyze health data. they are joining forces to create technology so that health care companies can analyze

patient information in the cloud. they will create personalized health care plans. for the first time since it started issuing drilling reports, the government is forecasting a drop in shale oil output next month. pledging oil prices have forced half of the oil rigs to shut down. the u.s. has its biggest oil glut since 1930. tom: nasa just released a video showing astronauts working on the exterior of the international space station. he strapped on the go pro before leaving. they were going about five miles a second. those are your top headlines this morning. go pro is really changing everything that is out there. olivia: that's the investment

thesis, how cool the video is. it's valued as a media company. tom: let's look at oil in a new texas. they are adjusting from $100 to $60 barrels. he has a unique texas perspective. what's different now from the debacle of midland texas ages ago. guest: i think it's the diversification of the economy. they learned was an oil state. oil collapse will -- told the state that the days of being a one track pony was over. that kaiser's vacation -- diverse vacation has helped tom: i can't think of a state with more stereotypes in texas. guest: the 10 gallon hat.

tom: that's part of the entrepreneurial myth of the cowboy up in abilene. olivia: shall i break into song? i was at a wedding and i had to pay an arm and like to get to in dallas. tom: that's the stereotype. guest: if i compare the areas, i think you saw that abilene or the western texas was concerned but felt they would get through this as a community. we are starting to see a bit of that pessimism. there is some softness starting to come in. i was talking to one of the major real estate brokers last week. he was saying that houston's real estate prices would whether this.

they are seen prices flattening. tom: you have to put water in there. we want to go beyond just the headline data on the california drought. it moves east, does it move down the rio grande to texas? guest: it is spreading. it's a western phenomenon. you're starting to see some of the fight raking out for water fights and water access. olivia: it was a front-page story yesterday. tom: the pictures were stunning. olivia: apparently it's not just almond farming. we came into this with a piece on rig cap -- count. guest: it's a leading indicator of where the industry is going. we are getting to a point where the rigs have gone up so much faster than we anticipated.

we thought it would be a noble response, it's been more nimble than we expected. we have uncompleted wells. olivia: that is a really dramatic chart. combine that with the forecast out this week, the shale boom is grinding to a halt. guest: it's definitely -- the foot is off the accelerator. we are in a coasting strategy. i think the strategy from saudi arabia is working two ways. i think it wants to test how robust are non-opec economics. they wanted to see what happened. the other part is what happens outside of opec. there is a story going on underneath this. the production outside the u.s. is starting to decline. volumes are coming off. we've got wells --

tom: do you buy lower for longer? like 1986? guest: i don't think it's a 1986. we are not going to see a recovery like we saw in 2008 or 2009. we don't think -- we think by the time we get to the end of 16, we will be in the mid to upper 70's. olivia: do you have to wait for a cathartic move? guest: i think that's a really good question. tom: it's tuesday. i'm done. guest: we had to strip so much as the exploration budget. what we are setting up for is a. time beyond exploration. do you let things get lower? tom: what we doing on twitter today? olivia: i think it's a big day

for jamie dimon. jpmorgan earnings are coming out. what are you looking for in the bank earnings this week? tune in at 7:00 for jpmorgan and 8:00 for wells fargo. ♪

tom: single best chart. olivia: this is near and dear to my heart. holy moly our weddings expensive. if you just received another invitation, put aside some more money. this shows the cost of attending a wedding. according to new data from american express, the average guest will spend $673 this year. when others say i do, your wallet will as well. tom: that's an amazing trend. argue under pressure to do

something stupid? olivia: people don't register there. this is the problem with having a destination wedding. my gift is i bought a plane ticket to attend your wedding. i bought you a bachelorette present. i buy you a bridal shower present i brought you a wedding present. i paid for a hotel. how can you say no? i just turned 30. tom: you're 30? you are well preserved. we live vicariously. olivia: destination weddings are huge. nobody has the nerve to throw themselves a wedding in your. i have many friends who think they are princesses. paris greece, italy.

they've all been beautiful weddings. tom: at our age -- olivia: how can you afford to spend $3000 to attend a wedding. it's just bananas. tom: i do agree. olivia: if i got out of a wedding with six and $73 i would be excited. i went to two weddings in new york city last year. tom: they were both at city hall, right? olivia sterns with a wedding update. this is a mage of major angst for those in their 20's. it's an outrage. let's look at photos. olivia: we have jordan spieth. my favorite 21-year-old won the masters. he is joined to market makers

later today. he won a gust up at 18 under par. he was right second in the world rankings. tom: he is doing under armour. olivia: he will be on market makers. he's a good looking guy. not marriage material. i do what you're thinking, tom. our number two photo is thai new year's celebration. they take place in a water fight. this looks like a foam party. tom: it's a great photo. olivia: this is what happens at the keen household? tom: no. olivia: our number one photo comes from fashion week in australia. these are animal rights protesters from peta.

they painted their bodies to represent animals. tom: the headline is the global reach of fashion it's not just new york and london and paris and milan. it's sydney. tom: skip york, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it. olivia: still to come, we are going to stop the wedding conversation. where going to talk about silicon valley and whether it sexist. we speak to one tech onto the newer about gender inequality. that conversation is coming up next. we are streaming on your tablet your phone, and bloomberg.com ♪

olivia: good morning. let's get you straight to our top headlines marco says it's time for his generation to lead. he announced he is running for president. he is the son of cuban immigrants. hillary clinton is in iowa and won't be making her first campaign stop. john kerry will

make the case for the iran nuclear deal with senators. he made the same pitch yesterday, but some lawmakers insist congress should review any final plan. fighting is flaring up again ukraine. there is heavy shelling near rebel stroll home -- strongholds. much of the country is in room. a jury could finally be seated in the trial of james holmes. he is accused of a california -- colorado movie theater shooting rampage. more than 9000 people were screened. the deck is stacked for landlords. the u.s. rep is more than $1100. the rent increase is faster than inflation and double increase of

home prices in that span. a bidder is paying $1 million for a notebook. he was a math genius who broke nazi codes during world war ii. they can't name the buyer. those are your top headlines. still to come, jpmorgan earnings come out. we go below the headlines with michael moore. the president of yemen has an op-ed in the new york times. this is a proxy war between iran and saudi arabia. is the fed ready for a liftoff? we will explain the rate hike call. i never played the gender card. our industry is not one where i think it's relevant. that is what marissa mayer said in a recent interview about

sexism in silicon valley. thank you so much for joining us. some say this sounds progressive to say stop saying -- playing the gender card. guest: i think what i took issue with was gender is a relevant. it's very relevant. we live in an area where most of the companies that are funded are funded by an industry in which 96% of the partners are male. that has only changed one percent in the last 20 years. we live in a country where we don't have paid maternity leave for all companies. it's very much relevant. olivia: we are the only developed country that has doesn't

have paid maternity leave. is it more to do with tech or the size of the company? guest: i think the size of the country matters. marissa has made headlines at yahoo! for doing a number of things that make it easier for new parents to work at the company. i do think there is a gender issue. in any candidate environment where the majority of the funders are men, you will see this kind of dynamic. olivia: alan powell recently lost her discrimination lawsuit. she spoke with katie couric this month. >> what are some of the problems women face in the tech industry? >> one is the difficulty in being taken seriously. there are often the woman is assumed to be an assistant or the junior person. it could be that women are not

seen as being technical. people assume that you are not technical. olivia: what is your response to that? guest: i think it's absolutely true. anecdotally for me, this issue plays out at every conference we attend and a lot of the fundraising we have done. the gender dynamic is extremely relevant. olivia: is it harder to raise money as a woman? guest: i think in any environment where 96% of the shareholders are men, you will have problems. i think that's really telling. olivia: she said there is going to be no negotiating about pay because women don't negotiate as well as men. when they do, they hold it against them.

does that make sense? guest: i think the data backs her up. the data shows that salary negotiations are overwhelmingly one i men. and one of the reasons why men are paid more. olivia: sheryl sandberg would tell me to go negotiate for more money. guest: i think we can ask women to do more and they are stepping up. we should not allow these dynamics to persist. i think there are legal and institutional things we can do to make it easier for women and men who want to be better parents and played more of a role in family. olivia: today is officially equal payday. guest: it's interesting. i share this argument all the time that women should lean in more and if we make less it's

our own fault. i know few women who are as aggressive as manic. i think the only way we will get to equal pay is why starting to understand the institutional dynamics that lead to it. olivia: you agree with alan powell that it's held against women when they asked for more money? guest: i think the research backs it up. tom: thank you so much. let me do a foreign exchange report. we heard about german yields earlier. excuse me. this shows a lack of tension. you can see it in the euro and the yen. this is a stronger swiss franc. it is really underscoring the dysfunction that we see in europe. that will be in the jpmorgan report that we will see at the top of the hour. we are thrilled to bring you michael moore of bloomberg news. he is one of the great experts

on the too big to fail banks. that will be at the top of the hour. you need to stay with us. good morning. ♪ . .

>> this is "bloomberg

surveillance." tom: something is not right in europe. further disinflation -- can the united states keep distance from deflation? jpmorgan raises their dividends. they announced it moments ago. and in this hour, a conversation with ellen zentner of morgan stanley on a fed that will delay but not into 2016. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" from our headquarters in new york city. olivia sterns and 90 to go over the jpmorgan earnings stop what is your first glance at the headlines? olivia: jpmorgan planning to boost the dividends. also, first quarter earnings coming in at $1.45, ahead of wall street estimates looking for $1.41. i was also looking for cost control, any updates on how their legal defense is digging in. my very first read, we have michael moore onset, who knows much more than me --

tom: tangible equity again. a lot of noise -- the noise of the conference call, will be what james dimon says about jeffrey immelt. jv capital is not in the earnings and the good news with the dividend right, but how will you set up about what mr. dimon will say about mysteryr. immelt? michael: jpmorgan is committed to the business and it will benefit as more holdback in the midst of the higher capital requirements. ge capital -- one of the reasons they are pulling back as they are treated like a jpmorgan, but jpmorgan says only a few of us can survive in this world. tom: i want you to dive into the earnings report while we get to top headlines. very quickly, what is the ratio you look for when you died in? i am fascinated by what you look

for in a 45-page press release. michael: fixed income, trading revenue, that was expected to bounce back -- it did. that may translate to some of the other banks. tom: top headlines come and we will get back with michael moore. olivia: marco rubio calls it a new american century. declaring he is in fact running for president. rubio is a 43 are sold and is also the son of cuban immigrants. he made it clear who he is running against -- hillary clinton. mr. rubio: just yesterday, a leader from yesterday -- [crow d boos] begin a tempe and for resident by promising to yesterday. -- began a campaign for president are promising to take us back to yesterday. yesterday is over. olivia: hillary clinton will

tour a community college and hold a roundtable discussion while traveling to iowa i than. we heard the van's name is scooby. clinton stopped to eat at a chipotle and was apparently not recognized. and he did not do much to change opinions in the house. secretary of state john kerry will try to do the same with the senate. talking to members of congress about the nuclear deal with iran. he hoped he could clear up misconceptions. secretary kerry: it is good to have an opportunity to discuss with people what is really contained within the parameters and also to lay down some of the work that we have left to do. we have 2.5 months more to negotiate. that is a serious amount of time with some serious business still to do. olivia: lawmakers say kerry's briefing did little to dissuade them by insisting congress must do a final plan, any vote on the bill would give congress the power to reject the iran deal. both the u.s. and israel are

criticizing russia for agreeing to lift it ban on the sale of air defense missiles to iran. those missiles could be used to protect iran from an attack on its nuclear facility. it is a deal that would create the world's largest maker of wireless network equipment. nokia is in talks to acquire a french company that makes networking equipment and transmits mobile phone calls. alcatel is valued at $13 billion. in tulsa, oklahoma, a sheriff volunteer has been charged with second-degree manslaughter in the killing of a suspect. he apparently fired his pistol by mistake instead of his taser. the volunteer is white, the victim is black, his lawyer says it was obviously a mistake and he should not have been charged in the first place will stop it is a lesson to anyone works at the airport. he careful what you take. one baggage handler took an

unexpected trip. the man apparently dozed off in the cargo hold when the jet took off from seattle for los angeles was up he woke up and started banging on the wall. listen very carefully. the video captured by a passenger on a plan. see if you can hear it. that would be completely terrifying. the captain declared an emergency and return the plane to seattle. the man was found underneath the man was taken to the hospital, and he has now been released, so he is safe and sound. tom: mr. brady tossing the ball almost to home plate. this is the new england patriot quarterback, it is obviously brady's off-season no arm strength. olivia sterns could have thrown it better. brady launched off the mound. a big hug from mr. ortiz. olivia: maybe the ball was

overinflated. [laughter] tom: oh, quote of the day from olivia sterns. an overinflated basil, no question about it. of course, jpmorgan out with earnings also "bloomberg view" 's" michael moore with us as well. what i'm struck by is the media ballet, it is up one dollar or whatever, it is amazing how this ink is minting money versus the peak of 2006, 2007. most people say oh woe, is me jamie doing so poorly. michael: 4014 is up 50% over 2007, so obviously it is a bigger bank than it was. it bought bear stearns but a number of banks, so it is a bigger piece and the are oe is the main thing. -- andy the roe is the main thing. tom: adam park at morgan stanley

going overweight with his group. this is of course jpmorgan churning up in an bouncing up here against resistance recently. we bounce up and against. what valuation would you use for the banks, is it like you drive by and see how many people, how many branches? >> no, that anecdotal stuff never works. tom: what works? >> the data obviously works. jpmorgan has less conversation than they did precrisis was up evaluations have shifted because they are bigger, they picked up their turns for a song practically free. they have been accumulating more asset, more clients. it is just a bigger, better run bank than it was before the crisis. tom: olivia, the financial tables as lumber get this place from operating income at $33 billion up to $39 billion, $46 billion, i would suggest it is

almost apple-like. olivia: they are up against several lawsuits and we are looking for in the: update again the latest in the expenses. mike, my question to you is net interest margin, is the bank still getting squeezed by lower rates? michael: the banks are waiting on the fed to raise rates. it has been a long time coming, and they are continually getting squeezed. tom: what does jamie dimon want janet yellen -- what is his wish list at the fed, barry? barry: everybody is so hyper focused on that. look at the money they are making with rate that essentially 0. they have been able to crank out gross revenue and profits in an environment that is very challenging to a lot of their competitors, not the least of which was ge capital so think about what happens if two things

occur -- if rates go up, so there is a little more room for them to have some spread on their loans, and is credit standards ease just a touch, they are very tight now for making mortgages, for making other loans. if they are able to do more volume because the credit quality slips just a touch there is a lot of potential upside in their gross revenue. olivia: mike what happens to fixed income trading revenue? michael: it is up. olivia: that is a really big deal. michael: yeah, yeah, it is up a little more than expected, so it is a good sign for things picking up a little bit, and equities and investment banking were both up well above expectations, so it looked like trading bounce back a little bit with some volatility in the first quarter. olivia: as our canadian quarter erik schatzker likes to say what else do you see? michael: as he said, the interest rate spread for them

dropped away 2% for the first time, so clearly they want long rates to go up at some point, and we are seeing mortgage banking bounce back a little bit, but maybe not as the part production revenue was not as good. tom: not specifically on jpmorgan, but what will be the body count over the next 1, 2, 3 years for the major banks? do you see 50,000 jobs go 100,000 jobs go? michael: it is difficult to put a number, but you had the immediate cost cuts after the crisis and now you get into the more secular software technology is replacing people. tom: michael moore, thank you so much. olivia: much more on wells fargo out at 8:00 a.m. we will be right back. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. let's get to a smart international relations morning must-read. he resulted yesterday. olivia: my morning must-read is from the "new york times" this morning -- so this is a guy who is a guy who was backed by saudi arabia. critics say to they false

presentation of the conflict between saudi arabia and iran, and a lot of questions about what extent these houthis are proxies for our granny shia militias. tom: basically aden is in total chaos. olivia: this is the poorest country in the middle east. the saudis are leading a coalition of airstrikes against the country -- tom: that was three weeks ago, right? olivia: no u.s. attend the intelligence was overrun in a have left the country, but there is the shia-sunni sectarianism. much more tribal politics and it is the outside players who are trying to make this into a proxy war. tom: yet oil has been remarkably stable. olivia: the big concern because of where dislocated, this is a very important to local to the global supply of crude. there are fears that this could become a base for al qaeda, the red sea a base for piracy, and

it would affect the global -- tom: you have been great on its coverage area. barry ritholtz with us. i screw up all the time. i think i spent the first three days on the human crisis not knowing where it was on the map stop i thought it was by dubai and abu dhabi. olivia: come on! i wrote a paper in college, and it is shocking how little has changed. the paper was on the 1960's. tom: i am glad you brought this up. the southwest corner of the arabian peninsula near the red sea. barry: a fascinating aspect of that is a few years ago this sort of turmoil in that part of the world and that crucial corner would cause oil to spike $10 or $20, and this really to me -- if you want to interpret this -- this is telling us that opec is on a long downside and we have no idea where it ends but they have completely become neutered as a global economic power. tom: are we 1986, 1987 1988?

barry: it is a fudge of how much the u.s. continues to crank out in terms of supply plus how much the global demand remains soft. we are still below precrisis driving levels in the united states. that is amazing. tom: barry ritholtz with us from "longer view," ellen zentner and with us next. -- from "bloomberg view," ellen zentner with us next. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." ellen zentner with us in moments. let's get to top headlines with olivia sterns. olivia: j.p. morgan chase posted first-quarter results that to beat analysts' estimates. thanks to rising revenue from fixed income trading, net income rose to $1.45. analysts were looking for $1.41.

senator marco rubio says it is time for his generation to lead his country. during a rally in miami, the florida republican announced he is in fact running for president. he is the son of cuban immigrants. hillary clinton is in iowa this morning and will be making her first official campaigns. also crossing the bloomberg terminal this hour four security guards facing long prison terms wants new trials. they were since it's in the fatal shootings of 14 unarmed iraqis years ago. one guard was given a life sentence, the rest four-year terms. and amazon and harpercollins are turning the page. the company's struck a multiyear deal covering print and e-books. amazon angered some publishers and authors by insisting on discounts. and what is the big risk in the credit market? according to activist investor

bill ackman, it is student loans. there is $1 trillion of student loan debt outstanding and there is no way borrowers will ever pay it back. u.s. says 9% of out outstanding debt balances are already in the fall. and move over, peter parker, you have got new competition. the french spiderman reach the top of dubai's skyscraper over the weekend. he used only talk and tape on his -- chalk and tape on his fingertips, 70 minutes to scale the 1000-foot structure. this is what tom keene does in his free time. that explains the calluses on his hands, scaling the bloomberg tower. barry: that is scary to watch. tom: it is. we look at iran, our peter cook from washington in new york today will have an important conversation on senate activity. and then a very important --

this is a must watch him must listen, barry ritholtz will join us for a discussion on valuation within the market, and yes, we will talk enterprise value which is always a good thing. right now, and morgan stanley has made a set of calls in the past days, never weaker euro under parity or through parity i should say, stronger dollar of course linked two that come in all of this type to ellen zentner's call on the fed. she is of course chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley. obviously what everyone wants to know, ellen, is this a capitulation of your outlier call back to consensus, or do you still feel consensus will come to december 16? ellen: it has raised eyebrows. it has been about two years that we've had a call for the fed to hike breaks in -- hike rates in 2016. the winds have been shifting in that direction 40 later rate

hikes, we think of december will be the trigger. tom: the first thing i thought of -- there is a heritage to do nothing in december, any number of reasons, holidays, lack of liquidity, can't a rationalize a related to the first meeting of next year just because of the holidays? ellen: they could rationalize that, but they decided they wanted to taper in september 2013. financial markets titans, they decided to delay tapering, so they made the announcement in december for a january start. you can have something like that play out where they announce a december start to rate hikes -- i am sorry, in december announced they start to january rate hikes, and if the world fall apart before them, they can say ok, we delay. we think december is the appropriate meeting because we think the fed has sent a very clear signal at its march meeting in fact that despite its downgrade the growth, despite its downgrade to inflation, it would take a much bigger hit to the economy to make them not raise rates. tom: olivia, jump in here, but

very, where is consensus right now? barry: i am not sure. there seems to be a pretty clear split in the fed -- tom: september, june? barry: i cannot fathom i guess, but the risk factor of being too early is very different than a risk factor against being too late. you're too early, you create a 1938 recession. and look, by most measures, this is still -- tom: if you're too late, ellen zentner keeps her job. barry: right. if you're too late, hey, you just tighten, and before that, the genie is out of the bottle. olivia: a big emergence between what the fed five future rate is saying, and what the fomc is saying. ellen, you have said falling oil and rising dollar will mean a place in his for janet yellen to raise rates will stop love having you on, but what changed?

ellen: i tell you what, core inflation we think does weaken from here. it bottoms around june of this year where it is going to move sideways for a time. you are the change in yellen's rhetoric that concerns me -- before, she was solidly implying that she wants to see a take-up in the data before moving. i do still think she is going to err on that side, but lately in remarks a couple of weeks ago friday night after markets closed when she made her important speech, she said prices do not have to turn up before raising rates. so she keeps trying to drive home this message that it seems like no matter what happens this year or how the economy unfolds, they are really determined to get a rate hike under the wire before the end of the year. tom: ln, stay with us, i want to talk about the rate differentials. olivia: still to come here on "bloomberg surveillance" it is

the first big day of bank earnings. we got number stuff from jpmorgan. they beat analysts' estimates. we will dig below the headlines. we will have michael moore, who covers banks for bloomberg, back with a sunset without artwork question of the day -- what are you looking for in bank earnings this week? please tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's go to the bloomberg terminal. we do that with ellen zentner of morgan stanley. german yield, u.s. yield, they are both moving. particularly the german yield. it is cyclical. we are way out to a big u.s.

yield, ellen zentner, and the german yield grinding down to 0. you have got matt hornbeck and hans goodnutner, how do you synthesize? ellen: hornbeck believes that spread remains wide between bunds and treasuries on the side and hans believes more digestible for the fed. tom: i think i knew what your answer was going to become a five set you up for that -- i am sorry about that. a dollar donated makes wrapped around mario draghi and this anti-spread. ellen: a leveling off of the trade weighted dollar was one of the three boxes they said needed to be ticked in order to raise rates so the dollar is the wild card. if the appreciation takes off

again as we've had since last summer, just out rages appreciation, that will stay the fed's hand. tom: we heard this on camera and off-camera from feldstein. olivia: i think he disagrees with ellen zentner. i think he thinks it will trade at the stabilized rain 0.14. tom: but it is an international fed. ellen: they have to be. the dollar dynamic is hard to digest come and that is being driven by international, not just a mastic, cyclical factors. tom: i know you have got to run here. thank you so much, ellen zentner shifting from 2016 to december of this year. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: marco rubio says he wants to make helping the poor and the middle class a republican issue and says it is his inner asian a can do it. the republican senator from florida held a rally in miami last night to declare he is in

fact running for president. he is just 43 is old and is also the son of cuban immigrants. one of the major ones of his platform -- creating jobs -- senator rubio: if we reform our tax code and controls bending and modernize our immigration laws and repeal and replace obamacare, if we do these things -- [cheers and applause] if we do these things the american people will create millions of better paying, modern jobs. olivia: rubio's campaign slogan is "a new american century," underlining to donors that he is a freshfaced in what is said to be a crowded, some say familiar, republican field. one step closer to a confrontation with obama over iran. the senate foreign relations committee may vote today on a bill that may give congress the final chance to weigh in on an iranian deal. the white house does not want congress to do anything that would upset negotiations. meanwhile, secretary of state john kerry briefed the agreement

yesterday with a closed door session. he said he went to clear up its inception. secretary kerry: it is good to have an opportunity to be able to discuss with people what is really contained within the parameters and also to lay down some of the work that we have less to do. we have 2.5 months more to negotiate. that is a serious amount of time with some serious business still to do. olivia: many house members are still skeptical of the deal. kerry will brief the senate today. iraq's prime minister has come to the u.s. and is looking for millions of dollars in aid. he will meet with the president today and also with the imf and executives of big american banks. iraq needs the money as it tries to retake territory from the islamic state. meanwhile, the pentagon says islamic state is losing ground in iraq. the militants have less control of up to 6500 square miles of iraqi territory. on the other hand, islamic state

has gained territory in syria. and four a quarter and america's biggest names are teaming up to analyze health data. ibm, health tron apple and others personalized care solutions. in the u.s. shale oil boom was not turning into a bust. for the first time since it started issuing monthly reports of drilling in 2013, the government is forecasting a drop in shale oil output. plunging oil prices have forced half of the country was the oil rigs to shut down. the u.s. is now facing its biggest oil glut since 1930. tom: very good. gopro video on skydivers -- how about nasa? this is video on the iss, the exterior army international space station. kelly virt strapped on the gopro.

this is a long way from the early gemini expeditions. a bigger euro today, nymex crude churns at $52 and brent elevated higher this morning, futures right now more than flat. olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i've olivia sterns here with tom keene. there is senator corker senator rubio, is your president obama's favorite senators as the legislative branch agrees to agree on an iran deal. we are focused on the knowledge of our peter cook. great to have you on set. peter: nice to be here. olivia: what does senator kerry say to convince the -- what does secretary kerry say to convince the senate? peter: i am not sure what he can

say. i will be talking to senator corker, and they need some packets to allow congress to have some say over the deal, and in senator corker's mind, not do anything to derail the talks in the meantime. any action by the foreign relations committee by the congress as a whole could in fact jeopardize the talks and effectively scare the iranians away. tom: the policy you are so good at, peter cook -- peter: he will be back for this meeting. tom: what is the back story of the dynamic between the senator from tennessee and the other republicans of that committee? peter: the reality is senator bob corker has been very willing to work across the aisle, to work with the obama -- tom: with senator schumer? peter: with senator schumer with this president. bob corker is probably his best bet, and if you cannot convince bob corker that congress cannot have a say in this, he will not be able to have a say in this. tom: barry ritholtz. barry: that letter that caused

such a brouhaha a few weeks ago, are there any lasting repercussions, or is that actually impacting foreign relations and domestic policies? peter: i think if you talk to the white house, they will say it has had an impact. the president's argument is listen, foreign policy come of the debates over this stop at the water's edge traditionally but now this is a new and different ball game one that not only this president does not like but future presidents republican or democrat, may not like. that is the argument of the white house, that it has done lasting damage and this book will do lasting damage as well. tom: this is an august committee, and i am thrilled about it but what happens when we get to john boehner? help me with the next 101. does this end up in the house? peter: if corker passes a bill, it will go immediately to the house and be approved there. it is important to know what this bill does and does not do. right now, before they consider

changes, there are 50 amendments that more conservative members want to make it even tougher. you have got democrats want to water it down a little more, make it more palatable to the white house but what it does is effectively gives congress 60 days to review the deal and in the 60-day period, the president cannot waive anything chance. that is important because we know that it will take some time for the thing since we dropped even by the white house, but the white house oncewants the flexibility to pick and choose the sanctions. olivia: the june timetable is going up the window. a sales ban lifted on missiles to iran. what is the reaction? peter: they are not happy about it. tom: talk about a photo out. p. peter: it with another indication of the challenge with the russian relationship and the interests on the part of a a lot of foreign countries to go ahead and do business with iran again. if the talks break down -- one of the arguments the white house makes is it is game over because

those other countries are not going to stand by and they're going to blame the united states for blowing this up, and they will start doing business with iran. tom: you are so good at the beltway perspective. is this front and center in washington? is i ran the only conflict in washington, or is there another story here? peter: there are a few people running for president that jammed a business -- olivia: you heard it last night for marco rubio. peter: and hillary clinton certainly. this is a big issue. this has a political equation to it, the republicans would like nothing more than to embarrass the president him and then republicans and democrats who really are worried about this deal all stop this is a big big change in american foreign policy. tom: at chipotle, did secretary clinton have the black beans or the pinto beans? [laughter] peter: at the "surveillance" camera, i cannot see. it's a pulley was not worried about her being choice, either.

tom: -- but chipotle was not worried about her bean tom: choice, either. come to new york more often. peter cook, a conversation with senator corker. stay with us. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance."

we're going to digress here. peter cook joining us, our chief washington correspondent, and it is a wonderful time to catch up with him as he goes to senator corker later in this morning on bloomberg television, but away from the senator in tennessee, the senator from florida made a big us lash yesterday. i am thunderstruck by -- made a big splash yesterday for so i am thunderstruck by the age differentials here. they are stunning. how does that play within the money combine that always comes out of k street or l street or whatever in washington? peter: marco rubio, you heard him last night, he is presenting himself as the new face of not only the republican party but the american politics -- tom: is he running for the department of agriculture? peter: this is a big decision for this guy. he could have waited his turn as he was to do new in the senate and he did not do it, he won the senate.

he is only in his first term at the senate still. this is a guy who could have easily waited, and he did not. it will be a long shot for him because he is that a couple of things against him. he will not be able to raise as much money as jeb bush, but the same question catherine has been raising on her bloomberg politics team, what state could he win early? tom: president obama this point in the campaign had 25% support versus single digit. olivia: i heard a lot of reaction to be speech saying they thought marco rubio was the barack obama of the republican party. peter, what is the personal tension between marco rubio and jeb bush? he says a mentor and protégé close clinical partners, they live 2.5 miles apart. peter: they flew on a plane the other day and sat next to each other on the plane plane back from an event, and by chance they were on the same plane. olivia: is it a betrayal? peter: i spoke to marco rubio some months ago and asked him about this decision.

wwould jeb bush's decision affect your decision you go he said at this stage, you cannot allow someone else's decisions affect your decision. olivia: he initially said he would never challenge him for the senate. peter: i know. this is brought with the relationship issues. tom: away from the soap opera, help me and barry ritholtz with the money question. is the process this time around the primaries, the conventions the vice president -- is it going to be the same as the other ones you have covered, or is 2016 different? peter: they are always a little bit different, and what strikes me as the sheer amount of firepower in the republican field. there are a lot of candidates who have a lot of equal strength, if you will, so these sharp elbows that will have to be used to distinguish yourself in that field are going to be big. tom: when do you speak to senator corker? peter: 8:15 this morning. tom: peter cook from washington,

speaking to the senator from tennessee. dow futures -2. just a turn to the market before retail sales. olivia: how about before jordan spieth, my man, the 21-year-old winner of the masters in augusta is joining "market makers" at 10:00 a.m. you do not want to miss this guy. he is the new tiger woods. he finished -18, tie-in tiger woods. do not miss it. ♪

tom: breaking news. the other successful johnson & johnson have run into what ellen zentner was talking about, dollar dynamics, they cut their forecast mostly attributed to a currency adjustment. we will see this much, much more through the earnings season, the effective grantee on america's great multinationals. there is j and j with a little bit of math. let's get to top headlines. olivia: i begin with j.p. morgan chase, with less than an hour ago posted first-quarter results that beat analysts' estimates things to rising revenue from fixed income trading. that it increased to $5.9

billion or $1.45 per share. analysts surveyed by bloomberg were looking for$1.41. wells fargo posts at 8:00 a.m. and during a rally yesterday the republican marco rubio said he was officially running for president. meanwhile, senator linton is -- senator clinton is in iowa. also, police and samadhi is the eight people are dead after an attack on a government office complex for stop the capital city of mogadishu. they stormed the ministry of higher education after a suicide bomb detonated at the gate of the complex. islamists extremist group al-shabaab is suspected of being behind the attack. last year, the nation was the pharmacy bill was $374 billion, an increase of 13% from the year

before, the biggest increase since 2001 for so much of the increase is due to new, more expensive treatments. as renters know, the deck is stacked for landlords. the average u.s. rent is more than $1100 a month, up 14% since 2014. rent increased 4% faster than inflation and more than double the increase of home prices in that span. an unidentified beenidder is auctioning for -- the 2014 movie "the imitation game," and those are your top headlines. tom: the 8:00 hour on bloomberg television, the senator from florida into the race, our peter cook with an interview with senator corker of course here on our foreign relations. secretary clinton is in iowa in a van. i am not quite sure where --

barry: down by the river. tom: that will be part of our debate today. in the iran deal, look for that importance interview with cook and corker at about 8:15 a.m. as well. olivia: how do you value a stock? it is a question mckee he's a cottage industry of market commentators chirpinig. -- of market commentators chirping. barry ritholtz has made a fortune. the number of batteries that elon musk can make, what is the right metric for valuing stock? barry: no single metric capitalizes where we are on the earnings cycle. people forget this is not a still picture, it is a moving image, and you have to put it in the context of all the data that is constantly changing. most valuation metrics are predictions. there are very few that are true

valuation measures. that being trailing pe. you know the price was, the earnings -- olivia: predictions based on an historic norm. barry: right. sometimes the analyst community consensus is right. often it is wrong, so when you guess wrong, your valuation measures are often incorrect which is why we advise people -- don't just cherry pick the metric that confirms your own bias. if you are bearish, do not just take the schiller. or if you're bullish, do not just look at net income to gdp or things like that because that shows us stocks as relatively cheap. look at all the metrics, take an average, and basically say well where are we if we take the sort of 538 approach. tom: how young cash flow analysis is, most people think this goes back to 1920.

cash flow analysis is relatively recent, and you feature total enterprise value is thebibita, which brings in the operating cash flows as well. what is the magic of that ratio? barry: it gives you a valuation of the enterprise value of a company, and when you look at the various metrics that have been around for decades, this is the one with the best track record of forecasting -- tom: can you take it critically across industries? my major problem is you do not use ebitda with banks. it does not work. barry: banks are different because they are dependent on where interest rates are and other conditions, but we do not look at this for individual companies -- we look at an entire market. the question is for investors -- art stocks cheaper? tom: this is absolutely critical

was very just said this is ratio analysis of the market olivia not individual stocks. olivia: on an s&p 500 basis, enterprise value divided by ebitda is the stock market overbought? barry: shows the stock market is overvalued and the returns are about average, somewhere between 8% and 10% including dividends. tom: what does schiller get wrong? ba it is not that he getr somethingr wrong. when kate is elevatedy,: you fall when -- barry: it is not that he gets something wrong. when cape is elevated, you fall. it is only undervalued 2% of the time. that is a little odd. i think what cape does not pick up our two key factors. one, the return on technologies for anything that is software or along those lines from a much

better than when you used to have to build a giant steel mill , and it is higher leverage. second, and this goes right to what cliff has written, when you look at the cost of being an investor today, it is a fraction of what it was like before there were indexes, before there was deregulation. tom: are you going to write more on this? very: yes. -- barry: yes. is a daily or weekly, are you saying? olivia: what is the right way to measure a bank, price to book? barry: i'm not really sure. we are in uncharted territories with banks because we have been a 0 balance for so long, and because the competition sector is becoming a monopoly where it is not quite a monopoly, there used to be plenty giant, money centered banks, and now we're down to four or five giving on where you want to draw the line. it is a lot less competition, which is why in the environment, jpmorgan is killing it. tom: we do not have time for the

fury in this hour. barry ritholtz. olivia: at least it is over. it is time for the agenda. tom, what are you looking at? tom: 8:30 retail sales, we are at april dashing to the first quarter mystery, and into the second quarter, retail sales i know michael mckee is putting a lot of weight on this report with this morning at 8:30. olivia: on my agenda, wells fargo due out in just under four minutes from now and different from jpmorgan where we were looking for adjusted her scorner earnings-per-share. -- first-quarter earnings per share. barry, what are you looking for? barry: the key number for jpmorgan is thomas less they are spending on legal costs. olivia: and investment banking bounceback. barry: right. it is starting to recover. but with wells fargo, the biggest mortgage underwriter, it will be interesting to see what their credit standards, if that

has changed at all, and what sort of demand for refi's and mortgage. olivia: exactly. jpmorgan boosted its dividend to $.044. tom: use of cash still strong. here is to, our craft team has analyze this the welcome only is front and center for secretary clinton. she is in iowa. the ballet begins. i'm sure there'll be another candidate a week from now. do you get a similarity here to or years ago, or is this something different? barry: there is a little similarly to 80 years ago. she started out as the presumptive nominee in two dozen eight and was blindsided by barack obama -- there is a little similarity to eight years ago. she started out as the presumptive nominee in 2008 and was blindsided by barack obama. the challenge to republicans some of the person who gets

through the primaries -- tom: my take away is -- will we see jeb bush in a van here? barry ritholtz, thank you. we will continue on bloomberg television, betty liu will be with you, and we continue on bloomberg radio. we hope you have a good morning. ♪

betty: good morning. you are alive from bloomberg headquarters. i am betty liu.

senator bob corker is in the loop this morning. he could get congress the final vote on any agreement the u.s. reaches with iran. how will he get the bipartisan support? sales numbers are out in just a half hour on the consumer. the founder ben fischman joins us. it could make the ladies very happy because it is about shoes. a close friend of tiger woods on whether jordan spieth will be the next star. i want to get straight to scarlet fu. scarlet: we will start with earnings per share. reported earnings per share in the fourth quarter, analysts were looking for $.98.