tv On the Move Bloomberg April 21, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
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surge in the highest since 2012. credit suisse beat estimates. trading picked up from a slow. outgoing ceo brady dougan. manus: futures are pledging higher. let's get your market open. caroline: trying to work out how this greek news good shape of the markets. so far, who cares? talk about raonic and the emergency liquidity that has they give it to greek banks. if the ecb does that, that's when the crunch really hits greece. the markets used to be shrugging it off. flat at the moment. friends is edging golf. stoxx 600 rallied 0.75% yesterday. -- france is edging up. what about alexis tsipras? save guy meteor cash desperately
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i will go to municipalities for the money. -- saying i need your cash desperately, i will go to municipalities for the money. where hearing about potential rate rises this year. bill dudley, head of the new york federal reserve, he is optimistic. he said it a rate rises needed this year. stimulus a plenty. we are seeing a reduction on the u.s. the dollar is up almost zero .5%. euro weakness. down goes the euro. will we see a reduction? we are seeing weaker currencies first of the dollar. aussie dollar trading lower. the central-bank comments
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saying cuts could remain. central-bank divergence. that's what we're seeing. the equity markets let's check in on how steps are performed. credit suisse's of 0.3%. brady dougan was manus cranny's last interview. his last set of earnings. he went out on a high. trading approved especially in the bond market a fixed income. we are starting to see improvement. they are cutting their cost cutting targets. after regulatory charges so a bit of holding off in the surge of the stop. you will be speaking to the chief executive. third quarter sales. in dollar terms, 14%. a beat. the chip designer, go look to
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the new iphones at samsung, more bang for their buck. this quarter could see a calendar shakeup. british foods is down almost 4.5%. i painted the outlier. british foods going to prime core, they are saying sales in operating costs are down slightly and it will modestly decline. harold strengthens. a euro weakness hitting the numbers. jonathan: caroline hyde cover thank you. the ftse 100 is pretty much dead flat. monday, tuesday today's of solid -- 2 days of solid gains. germany, desperate measures and greece. prime minister alexis tsipras is asking the government to move
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money to the central-bank. bailout negotiations continue. the central-bank is said to be thinking of ways to rein in assistance to the nation. we have every single angle. we are joined by vasilis, is luck enough to be in london and david powell. we are joined by lucy mcdonald's -- lucy mcdonald. team, we have to work this out. vasilis kind of a no-brainer but the growing opposition maybe something the greek should be considering. vasilis: they should be saying enough is enough. the decree brings it to the bank
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of greece. it will be from commercial banks so it is around 3 billion buffer they have for of the us assistance and that is around said to 4 billion euros. it is actually used. -- said to be 74 billion euros. it is saying we cannot do this forever. the good part will save from commercial banks at around 100 65 billion euros is probably down to 130 billion euros. the amount of deposits they see as acceptable. you have the banks considered to be liquid. manus: we are obsessed with the endgame. maybe to modal through the summer. -- jonathan: we are obsessed with the endgame maybe twoo
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muddle through the summer. guest: the second bailout, the 7.2 billion euros, they could make it through 2015. and they need to get from their and the appropriate reformed and that would only solve their financial problems through 2015. they would need a third bailout package which and they will have to negotiate in the second half of this year. jonathan: lucy, let's break you in. you sitting there look the situation, perhaps we are desensitized to what is happening in greece. are you still paying a lot of attention? lucy mcdonald: bei expectation hasng in then den iti was a the
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best interest of all parties. al. as we understand with the liquidity issues we are hearing and we will call to it on friday, it is difficult. and so, we have the needs covering in the summer with the 7.8 billion euros. is a longer-term, the reforms and longer-term funding. it is difficult to avoid unfortunately. jonathan: unfortunately. the grexit scenario. over the past couple of days, we could have the default without the grexit. talk to me how it works in practice. david powell: 2 separate issues. the imf does not call it a default and they call it arrears. and then a default all government bonds. if they defaulted on government
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bonds the ecb will find it difficult to consider the banks solvent. that would probably be the major point of which is the ecb says no more in the end game for greece. read in arrears to imf is not as bad. the imf has a long list of eggs was you are in their writ -- a long list of arrears, there's a long list. christine lagarde is notified and she tells her colleagues. there are three or four months before they have to put a public notice out. that does not been the same as defaulted all government bonds and busy the paper on may 12. jonathan: the back and forth. if they fall in arrears, the bottom line they are running out of money, the ecb appears the politicians maintain they have a redline. what do they do? how do they
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manage politically? vassilis karamanis: i think they're trying to say political phase. they cannot withstand the europe framework. so the administration, they are balancing their way between 4 main forces. creditors and the platform. that the find a way to keep it in the government. they cannot do for much longer. we are running out of time. that is obvious. either an election down the road or a referendum is the solution. there is an opinion poll, positive opinions for the greek government is less than 50%. jonathan: lucy, i was reading through the notes. the cash should you try some of
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the volatility or go back a little bit? lucy macdonald: with had a very good start in the year in it the equity market. no major double-digit returns. in that environment to raise a little bit of cash especially at a volatile time with interest rates in the u.s. and through the summer we have greece now and going on and we also have the elections. it say seven little bit on the side for -- it seems to have a little bit on the side. jonathan: we talk about deadlines. what is the real deadline? david powell: july 20. does where the bonded the ecb holds matures. if they cannot pay, that would be a default.
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greece has until mid-july to negotiating with the euro creditors and get funds ahead of that deadline. jonathan: even books holiday. thank you very much. vassilis karamanis david powell and lucy macdonald. lucy macdonald will stay with me. a big week for tech arctic. simon seeger's, brady dougan's last stand. -- a big week for tech earnings. chinese markets reach for the sky. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back. this is "on the move." a big win for tech earnings. we will get numbers from yahoo!. -- a big week for tech earnings. the u.s., ibm, a bit of a mix. ryan chilcote has been going through the stories. what is your take away? ryan: ibm is the how a company shifts emphasis from legacy businesses like the technology and software that they used to
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provide a hardware that they used to provide and was prized for. some of the emerging businesses like mobile computing, analytics, analyzing the data and most of portal he, cloud computing. the company said it has said cloud computing and mobile computing and analytics grow by 30%. that is perhaps good news in terms of the direction of the company. however the legacy business ways down on ibm. this is the challenge for -- she has been at the company since she was 24 years and 34 years after the helm -- i should say 34 years after the company. house -- how has she done? her emphasis is to guess at the cloud computing. sheep $1 billion behind it.
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over her 10 year, share price is down about 7%. a bit of a sense of how investors feel about the company. we spoke to analysts and out of 30, 5 recommend you buy the shares. the dollar store it is a big part of the ibm story. revenue has follow the year on year for the past 12 quarts consecutively. this time they are blaming ford currency at exchange and the strong dollar. saint out of the 12% decline, the dollar alone is responsible for a percent. -- saying out of the 12% decline the dollar alone is responsible for a percentage. there are delivered at a slightly better profit than last year. the sales are basically flat. the jury is still out on ibm. all of the other companies we
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have this week. jonathan: ryan chilcote, thank you. lucy macdonald is still with us. lucy, a big week for u.s. earnings in this week. is it we find that the damage that the strong dollar? lucy macdonald: really beating expectations by now, the steward of the dollar. you can be ensured it is in there. the other thing will be looking at is also deflation. companies moving more toward the cloud what is happening to their prices. and the fed is looking to see how upfront investment is affected in the profits. if they take a lot through and that could show the picture. the potential for a lot of confusion overall.
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it in areas we are particularly interested are the business transformation. you know that is happening, you can see that happening. you can see nice, big deals. oil companies are becoming tech companies. and going through industry after industry. jonathan: that makes look at the tech sector very difficult. very diverse. not just from the valuation perspective, what are the things you are looking at? lucy macdonald: where the growth is definitely mobile and exposure to that is growth. and in the other area is cloud a deflation associated with it. jonathan: the u.s. or europe? lucy macdonald: valuations are
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low. there is a gap that favors europe and also a margin gap which favors europe. margins in the u.s. are above precrisis levels is still below in europe. it's still favors europe. jonathan: there we go. lucy macdonald chief investment officer. we will keep it right here on tech. we speak to the arm ceo. ♪
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jonathan: welcome back. earnings beat estimates this morning. the success all the new was the generation of files pushed -- phones push the need for the chip. i have the ceo. at the end of last year, a story and we were waiting for the growth. the royalty growth and not to the licensee growth. cut the -- cut through the noise. simon segars: we saw inventory issues going on in royalty was lower. we expected it to come back the second half and it did. we expected it through q1 and it did. on the licensing side, what is
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great about the numbers is strong licensing deals for. we did 30 deals compared to 26 a year ago. plenty of adoption of our technology. on the licensing front, quite a complex picture. five years or roughly 30% compounded growth per year. this year, this last quarter, it is flat from a very high level. we are very pleased with the progress of our licensing business. jonathan they when you see a drop off of 2%, you were expected that for a year and expecting things to level off. the latest processor, is that going to help licensee growth for the rest of the year? simon segars: we expect licensing products a it is the most recent we announce and web a whole load of new products in the r&d labs.
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we are working with the lead partners. our forecast in the medium-term is 5%-10%. some say it will be higher some lower. it is a lumpy business when it comes the licensing the way we do. i am not at all worried all about year on year. jonathan: the interesting thing the wearable side will be incorporated into the hole t -- whole theme. are you please of how it is picking up? simon segars: in wearables, it will be a big market sector. and medical tracking will be one area where it is really useful. look at all of the products out of their right now, you look at those technologies and pretty much all of the is find it hard. apple, we seek is great for
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wearables in particular. we expect to maintain a high share. jonathan: a couple of acquisitions. maybe you could talk to me about a strategy it would you buy the companies, the valuation, is it higher than what you be it is worth? simon segars: in some cases, yes and in some case, no. we have seen over the years where acquisitions work work is -- work is when you have the relationship with a companies and is much easier to integrate a get the values out a what you are integrated. jonathan: what i found interesting, talk to me about it. simon segars: we have been investing in graphics technology for a while. we could see how mobile devices would turn it's a gaming platforms and we saw it accelerate over the past 2
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years. the graphics all monitors smartphones is benchmarked left and right. it is really important for the performance of games. performance is important and we are working with companies to optimize expert is that consumers get. jonathan: when we talk about an optimal platform, it sounds like a high standing point. the talk is we have to shift to emerging markets. do you things could go the other way? simon segars: there will be primula and mid prices and low into. people will upgrade from the first device they get to more sophisticated devices. jonathan: going forward, the bottom end or high-end? simon segars: what will save recently is high-end of interest in the markets. we will see strong innovation
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jon: welcome back to on the move. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. this is how things are shaping up. it is 1.35% higher. the grexit risk starts to play in. china, boom. you have to say, when you look at some of the company earnings this morning, some solid beats out there. let's check in with caroline hyde. caroline: interesting effect
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the currency is happening particular the strength of the dollar. that is helping. interestingly, one of the key performers is a swiss drugmaker. they beat with profitability and they update the forecast for the full year. so does the ship design. fighting strength is really showing through there. the scales of the chips are in the billions. they beat the estimates across the board and they are saying the pound is playing into that a little bit. and the chip designer is with the samsung portfolio and more
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cap -- more powerful chips and royalties. this is a company being hurt by foreign-currency. they report in pounds and a lot of sales come in euros. retail sales are up and sugar is always a bit of a concern. it is the worst performer on the stoxx 600. they say there will be a modest decline. >> thanks. let's get to another one beating estimates. manus cranny spoke to the outgoing ceo, brady dougan. manis began talking about the
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biggest risks he faced. let's in the near term, there are a number of risks and it is clearly preoccupying people. in the longer term, the issue will be interest rates and when they start to rise. we have been in a long span here with low interest rates and the high interest rate environment will take some adjustments. in the long run, that is a bigger issue. we know it will take place. >> do you share the concern about the volatility in the bond market? they warned of a tapered tantrum. >> a lot of the changes we have make the segment of the industry safer and sounder and it has brought on changes. i think we have seen some of the impacts and some of the concerns
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are legitimate. >> the last set of earnings beat analyst estimates. brady dougan is under pressure to downside the unit and many investors are betting his successor will do so aggressively. the results cast a shadow of doubt. it is great to have you with us. for you, does that throw it up a little bit? >> he is leaving the company with a positive result and there
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is a strategy problem that is fundamentally different. now, the markets are good and it may cause reputational risks in the long run. jon: i want to keep it on investment banks. he has been under pressure. he has been adamant that the strategy is the right one. you talk about goldman sachs and the investment bank starting to come through. would it be a stretch to say that they should stick with the strategy? >> it is a question for us and we have seen in the past keeping in mind what happened
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>> this will take some time. morales low and people are suffering. i think the ceo was not the person and i think what needs to be done is focusing on the market and the management has not been committing to switzerland. we know that switzerland is still a financial service industry and swiss banking is still in the world. the have to redefine what that means in the different world today. >> what does it mean? the reputation has taken a beating over the last couple of years from the united states and the regulatory matters coming out of that country. going forward, what should the
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strategy be? bernhard: it stands for profits and many years of experience. the environment has improved a bit recently because of the dispute and the banks are really opening because of cost reasons. i think credit suisse has to rediscover talking to the average customer. i think that is what he has to reconsider.
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he is disappointed. >> you want him to focus on the whole market. it brings something else to the table. isn't that the wrong way to move about? >> they have to do both. the track record will face is -- focus on asia. the experience is shown in the past shows that he treasures the homework and he should take care of it.
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stories on bloomberg. missed estimates were hit in australia. the miner is expanding as prices trade at a 10 year low. the tech company beat estimates with sales of the mainframe businesses. estimates were revised down. they fell short of a profit goal. the fake of australia governor glenn stevens, said the australian dollar is. likely to go further. the investment outlook is weak. a 5% rise in revenue and a surge of new subscribers, adding the most in 11 years. the company reported a jump in
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year on year profits in the month of march. let's talk a little bit about m &a. the israeli drugmaker is preparing the largest takeover deal of the year. elliott got 10 is in -- elliott gotkine is in tel aviv. >> that is what we understand. there have been speculators with the giants of the generic industry drugmakers. they are pushing it in the past week or 10 days. what seems to be the trigger is the unsolicited bid for an over-the-counter drug manufacturer that is in ireland. it happens to be here in israel and we can see the impact this
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morning and it may come as early as today. we have seen shares rising and the markets like the deal and seem to like many of the deals in the industry. it was the subject of the unsolicited bid. many investors think this would be the biggest pharmaceutical deal of the year and it would be the biggest deal they have ever done. just under $9 billion so far and currently worth $33 billion. jonathan: it is being rejected before it has been tabled. >> interesting strategy.
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you either have the offer and you politely decline and they could have the offer and the executive chairman says they have been looking at it for some time and it is clear that the organization is about sound industrial logic. the investors beg to differ and we have seen shares closing at record highs and these rumors of things going towards things is a justification for many other big deals and you are talking about cost savings with the potential of increasing prices. they are worried about declining revenues and interestingly enough, the generic competition
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for the drug was last week. so, it will all work out. we are not quite there yet. it is up by some 2%. perhaps we will get an indication when the trading happens later today. jonathan: thank you very much. we are paying close attention to what is going on in china. kaiser has become -- has begun struggling with international lenders and finds itself embroiled in a draft crackdown. let's bring in christopher to join us now from singapore. i guess this should not come as
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a surprise to the market. it has been on the horizon for a while. >> that is correct. the chairman left in december and it triggered a loan default. they almost missed a payment in january and they made the payment at the last minute. they did not make that payment within the grace time. the bonds are up-to-date. that is surprising. there has been impact on the market. you look at the property index and it is down with the composite index up. overall, the market did expect it. it is not great news. >> let's talk about the legends that have to be learned. the real estate market, is that what we should be focused on?
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should we be focused on a broader story of you merging markets? is this the first domino in a long line of dominoes in the years to come? >> there are two things. there is a debt problem in china. we recently wrote a story of high-yield stories -- of high-yields in china. they make up a third of the index sees -- indices in asia. these companies have 35 times the operational income, a high number. the numbers range from 5%-10%. there is over-leveraging. they had $210 billion.
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the case of kaisa is different. the bonds were trading at 106. they had an outspoken and approachable relations person. all of a sudden, they were embroiled with chairman disappearing and taking over the company again. what happens is that investors are not sure what is going on. if anything investors are looking at if we should price in some political risk to china. we shoul -- we really do not know where it is going to come from. jonathan: i look at the high-yield auctions in china. christopher: coal miners stand
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out. they are in a grace time and it is not a full default. it is not a full default. another related company have a majority coming up and i think it is 300 million. what i remember is that they did not have enough to make the maturity. the properties were downgraded today by moody's and they have it coming up this year with the amount of cash reported on the balance sheet not being enough. the bottom line is that we can expect a few more defaults. jonathan: that is for sure. they are not in the european equity markets today.
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are joined by guy johnson. someone just tweeted to me that there may be progress in greece. that is contrary and. -- contrarian. guy: it is not looking pretty. is the ecb the right way to do it? it is a risky strategy. i would say it is a contrary view. this comes to fruition and the ecb is nervous. few would argue they have the best information out there. this is a liquidity story. jonathan: it is. fiscally a liquidity story. they are running out of money. they have to find cash. you have two hours to analyze
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this. we will talk about the endgame. maybe there is not one. maybe you give them enough money. guy: that is all the political noise is indicating. if we say you cannot have the extension, they are tightening the screws and they want action. i wonder if they are prepared to extend further. jonathan: they say they have a redline politically and maybe that is where the endgame is. who knows? i don't. guy johnson will try to find out. we had to the break and here is a picture of the markets. yesterday, it was about miners. today, tech stocks. the stoxx 600 is higher. the index is up by 2.3%.
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guy: the ecb is studying measures to limit the system to greek bank. francine: david last quarter. guy: why the competition commissioner for europe thinks that the continent is paying too much for its gas. guy: good morning. you are watching "the pulse." here in london. i'm guy johnson. francine;: i am fr
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