Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Bottom Line  Bloomberg  April 22, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

2:00 pm
mark: i am mark crumpton and this is "bottom line." to our viewers here in the united states and those of you joining us around the world come welcome. full coverage of stocks and stories making headlines this wednesday. latin america reports looking at venezuela's lockout of data and what it means for bond investors. agriculture reporter alan monitors a u.s. supreme court case involving the marketing of
2:01 pm
raisins. our chief washington correspondent peter cook has the latest on the justice department meeting with comcast and time warner cable on the proposed merger. those stories are in a moment. let's first get you right to the top stories we are following in the hour. accused of playing a role in the 2010 flash crash $7.5 million bail. ordered to live at his parents house. he cannot use the internet or a phone with internet access. his parents must pay a fine and will surrender their passports. he is charged with helping some of the dow jones industrial average wild 1000 point dive on may 6 of 2010. ryan has this report from outside the suspect's house. ryan: we are in a london suburb. a noisy place to you can hear a plane taking off right now.
2:02 pm
perhaps not the kind of place you would expect to find a crater with enough weight to throw around to cause the market crashed. that is exactly what u.s. prosecutors allege. they say a day trader operating out of his family home on this london street, plays 19,000 that's may 6, 2010, the day of the flash crash, sending the dow jones down by about 1000 point raising about one chilean dollars worth of value and netting him make all $9,000 in profit. it is something difficult to get their heads around in the neighborhood, not to mention the media circus in their street. bloomberg, west london. mark: he will have to report to local police station three times a week. hearings on the bed have been scheduled for may 26 and august 18. u.s. officials want him
2:03 pm
extradited to face charges. that is a look at top stories we are following. it could be make or break time for comcast. officials are meeting today with justin -- justice department to fit -- officials for the proposed $45 billion deal with time warner cable. peter cook joins us now with the latest. peter, any word on how things are going thus far? peter: not a lot of reporting out on this very important meeting. the justice department and comcast basically not even acknowledging it is happening. we do have knowledge of this meeting between comcast and officials set to put take place today. it is not entirely clear and the focus of the conversation is again justice department concerns about the accommodation of comcast and time warner the size of the entity and its hold on the broadband business in this country. a combined mark of 57% of
2:04 pm
broadband subscribers in this country. that is a central area of concern on the part of the government. the justice department attorneys were leaning towards recommending the government sue to block this combination, that they had not reached a final company -- a final decision on that yet. mark: what can comcast offer the government to make the deal succeed? peter: that is the $45 billion question at this point. they could try to reduce the footprint in terms of the number of subscribers and perhaps selloff geographical areas. but that is part of why they're putting this combination together in new york chicago l.a., these are media markets. a lot of customers comcast would very -- very much like to keep that is part of the calm -- the conversation. can they sell off some of those assets to satisfy the government? could they also perhaps to other conditions meet the test that
2:05 pm
this be competitive? mark: thank you. paul ryan spoke to peter about the merits of the trade promotion authority bill. the senate finance committee is scheduled to vote on fast-track legislation today in -- which would renew 2% trade deals congress can endorse or reject but not amend. corey bowl is a senior analyst with his area of expertise is u.s. government economic policy. he joins me from washington. welcome back and i appreciate your time today. a white house official told bloomberg that president obama will oppose any effort by prominent senate democrats to amend the fast-track legislation containing provisions that punish countries for manipulating exchange rates. can trade promotion authority actually stop currency manipulation?
2:06 pm
>> i do nothing think so. this administration have always consistently argued trade deals are not the place to settle allegations of currency manipulation. there has been a push to include strong and binding currency language into this will. thus far, they have been unsuccessful and i would imagine that would continue as the process goes forward. mark: japan's's ambassador to united states says the japanese prime minister minister and the president may be able to declare next week that the u.s. and japan have all but completed their part of the negotiations on a transpacific partnership agreement. would this be enough to get the other nations to sign on? >> the timing may be ambitious, but when the u.s. and japan conclude negotiations, it will be we think enough for nations to come on board. australia, canada, and others
2:07 pm
may have their own relatively minor gripes, but they will not walk away from a deal that gives them access to 40% of the world economy. mark: two of the issues are u.s. and japanese differences over cars and agriculture. what exactly are those differences and can they be over, this late stage? >> the u.s. has made concessions p or what is happening now is japan is unwilling to make a final round of domestic and russians necessary to finalize treaties or at least the u.s. and japanese portion of the treaty until they are sure that the u.s. congress will not get in the way and try to amend or block the deal. we think certainly that once it is in motion, it perhaps does not have to get all the through congress, but once it is clear it will pass eventually japanese will make concessions regarding autos basically in the agricultural space, we are talking about winding down subsidies paid predominately to
2:08 pm
rice farmers and we are talking about fully opening up the japanese market to foreign makers of cars. u.s. makers of automobiles, in this context. mark: how much -- pressure does this put on the u.s. and the jeopardy's set aside their differences? >> i think pressure is a good word to use. a major diplomatic bungalow when it tried to put pressure on its own allies not to join. instead of -- the u.k. did voice intentions to join and it left the u.s. with egg on its face and japan, which was clearly of the same view for them to now conclude the trade greedy -- treaty, it reasserts the two nations as a major force and
2:09 pm
prove to the world the u.s. is not to be messed with when it comes to these international trade measures. mark: president obama warned that international trade talks, setting rules for international trade, is he right? >> he is actually right. for the u.s., it is far more of a geopolitical treaty at least for the short term, and it is an economic one. it is about the u.s. saying to china, you guys have to start playing by the rules that the rest of us abide by. when you sign a trade treaty and we expect the treaty to expand over time, it really does make it more difficult for china and other perceived that players to act as they had been for a number of years. mark: is nasa the elephant in the room? does it cast its shadow over trade agreements involved in the united states? >> certainly when it comes to
2:10 pm
the senate it does. there is still a sense of misgiving among democrats who may have supported them back then. they feel it led to an outpouring of u.s. manufacturing jobs. i would argue in reality, a lot of those manufacturing jobs went to china and other lower-priced regions of the world that had nothing to do with it. perhaps that was a bit misplaced. mark: does a deal gets done -- get done or not? >> we think a deal gets done. through congress and the next month or so, it is only 70% because it will be in the house floor, where the vote will -- be very close. they do not write now have the votes they need, but they're working hard, republicans and democrats. we think they're more likely than not to get there by the end of may. mark: always a privilege to get
2:11 pm
your expertise. thank you for your time today. another check of the wednesday top stories and later, our latin america report will tell us why wall street is refusing to accept venezuela's blackout. that and more when we continue in just a moment. ♪
2:12 pm
2:13 pm
2:14 pm
mark: let's get you some of the top stories this wednesday. sales of previously hoped -- owned homes rose to the highest level since september 2013. the increase is more than 6% to an annual rate of 5.2 million homes, well above the median forecast. prices rose by the most in a year. deutsche bank allowed for the first quarter. a settlement with regulators. lenders still expect the quarter profit with revenue close to a
2:15 pm
record. it says it will provide more details when earnings, scheduled for april 29. greece has one access to more emergency funding for its base. people familiar with the decision say the european central banks governing council raised the cap on emergency liquidity assistance by about $1.6 billion to $76 billion. finance ministers will meet april 24 in the latest attempt to persuade greece to commit to economic reform so that aid payments can be released before the country runs out of money. european antitrust regulators have now have guessed problem in their sites. the big russian energy company may have imposed unfair prices by preventing gas from flowing from certain european countries to others. the trust regulators ready to talk. >> at this stage, all roads are open.
2:16 pm
first, and that is very important we would like to get in touch and talk with the people responsible. mark: it expect there will be a solution with the help of the russian government. french police say they prevented a potential pet terrorist attack on churches to france's interior minister said police arrested a 24-year-old man and found weapons, ammunition, and software. >> on sunday morning in the 13th district of paris police found an arsenal of where weapons, handguns, bullet-proof vest's, and computers and telecommunications systems in a car and at the home of an individual injured by a gunshot. mark: authorities say the attack was planned for the past sunday. france has been on high alert
2:17 pm
since the terrorist attacks in january killed 17 people. in paris, soldiers and police have been patrolling possible targets. the taliban has e-mailed the media, announcing afghan family in on friday, the first time the taliban has launched its annual campaign without having to face nato troops. the taliban appears no closer to its goal of overthrowing the afghan government. that is a look at top stories we are following. coming up, the u.s. supreme court hears arguments in a challenge to the government passes raising marketing program. our agricultural reporter will have the latest. tom petri joins me from denver with analysis of oil prices and the latest inventory report. at 2:45, i will speak with the godmother of fashion are at all that and more when we continue in a moment. ♪
2:18 pm
2:19 pm
2:20 pm
2:21 pm
mark: welcome back. the u.s. supreme court heard arguments today in a challenge to the agricultural department's raising marketing program designed to stabilize raising prices by requiring part of the crop to be set aside during high production years. luby's agricultural reporter is in washington. what is the issue here and how did raisins and up before the united states supreme court? >> what is at issue is a sickly a program designed to provide -- four raisins. the supply issues the crop faces, the government can take up to 40% of a raisin crop if they judge there is a surplus. they take that, they can store it, sell it on the world market
2:22 pm
but for some reason, growers in california said, wait a minute these are our raisins and we should do whatever we want with it. they took them to court, saying this is an unconstitutional government seizure of robbery and that is a question the supreme court is looking at today. mark: we are talking about a program that is 65 years old. >> correct. it dates to the great depression. mark: are these programs common in agriculture? would we expect changes in consumer prices as a result? >> part of what is interesting about the case, this is the way farm programs used to very largely live. it is supply management it when a farmer has a surplus you should be able to set some of the surplus aside for a lean year. the con -- it goes back to the story of joseph in genesis. in the great depression, it was called the ever normal greenery policy. you see large crops like calling
2:23 pm
and sorbent -- corn and soybeans, they largely exist for fruits and vegetables. in the case of raisins, the usda is arguing growers are not hurt by the program because by keeping the price lower, prices are higher than they otherwise would be. if you got rid of the program, you may see larger surpluses and that would push the price of raisins down. that is one specific product, not something affecting agriculture today as a whole. mark: we are talking about marvin and laura from central california, who grow seedless raisins. how did their case get to the court? >> a simple refused to turn over their crop and marketed the crop under their own label outside of the normal cooperative structure. this legislation going back to the 1930's allowed cooperatives to be informed that helped set
2:24 pm
these orders. the usda was trying to find them hundreds of thousands of dollars for not complying with the program. they said we should not do this and these are our raisins, and they took it to the so you -- the u.s. supreme court today. mark: give -- did the government take ownership of the raisins? >> that is what happens. they will say there is some compensation for the growers to this largely in the form of higher races they give amma but it is the government's's decision and not the growers decision and the growers wanted to have this a. mark: -- the say. mark: what types of questions with a raisin? >> justice antonin scalia, a very common opinion when he said legislation that goes back to 1937 that was a time when central planning was considered a good idea by a lot of people. even democratic justices had questions about whether this was the right role for government in
2:25 pm
regulating a crop. he saw a real skepticism across the board as to whether this was the right way for the government to be regulating a program aired certainly, that was going across the spectrum of the court. some people were wondering rather -- whether or not they should be compensated for this given the fact they were benefiting from the higher market prices of the program. that would be a question dealt with later. mark: which crops are affected and what might a change in policy do? >> there are some crops affected by this. a reserve program specifically applies to raisins. reserve programs for crops like walnuts, cherries but again, these are just a few isolated examples almost vestigial examples of a policy whose time has passed. mark: when might we expect a decision? >> may be around june. i will tell you, if i hear something through the grapevine
2:26 pm
i will tell you sooner. mark: [laughter] our agricultural reporter joining us from washington. thank you so much. before we had to break, breaking news. tony ressler has entered the bidding for the nba's atlanta hawks, fronting a group that includes former all-star grant hill according to three people familiar with the matter. they were part of a group that unsuccessfully bid on the los angeles clippers bought last year by former microsoft ceo steve ballmer for a record $2 billion. stay with us. we will have more details on the breaking story as soon as we get them. of course, you can check the latest information on our website. up next, crude oil inventories. i will speak about oil market reaction to a slowdown of inventory gains with tom, the chairman of petri partner spirit he will join me from denver when we continue in a moment. ♪
2:27 pm
. .
2:28 pm
2:29 pm
2:30 pm
mark: a group led by tony ressler has made a bid to buy the atlanta hawks. the sale price was $730 million. that is the second-most ever paid for an nba team find steve ballmer's 2 billion dollar
2:31 pm
purchase of the los angeles clippers. let's check some of the other top stories we are following and begin with a check on the price of crude oil. it closed down about .75%. for more on the oil market and the inventory report, i'm joined by the chairman of retreat partners -- chairman of petri partners. how much of an impact's rig count having on production at this time? guest: it's clearly going to have an impact down the road. we have seen two consecutive months of a modest decline in north dakota but the amount of variation there is more a function of how many wells are being completed versus how many rigs are running to drill new wells. the big impact from drilling and
2:32 pm
lower drilling activity is going to come third quarter fourth quarter of this year. maybe next year. mark: west texas intermediate reversed losses today, after they said stockpiles at the biggest oil storage hub in the u.s. slowed. what does this mean for the oil market overall? tom: a week to week numbers can be somewhat noisy, so we want to be careful of that. basically, we are still at a high level of production. i would not be surprised to see while we have slowed a little here, the give and take is not the whole answer. part of the reason that is happening is we are pushing some
2:33 pm
of those supplies to the gulf coast to build up gasoline and diesel for the higher driving months of the summer. while it is important to look at cushion, don't rely too much on it as the only indicator that matters. mark: why is saudi arabia still producing so much oil and what about the geopolitical risk? we heard a saudi-led coalition let an airstrike targeting iran-backed rebels in yemen. tom: they have been bombing there and now they have announced they are not going to do it. the geopolitical aspect of this is very mixed. there are a lot of crosscurrents going on and what it means is we have to be fairly humble about our ability to predict what's going to happen over the next
2:34 pm
six or seven months. the thing i am looking at as we are getting early signs that the much lower price of oil in the world $100 brent down to $70 oil. we are starting to see what i think the saudi's really wanted a pickup in global demand growth. that is an important factor and very well may become storage and cushing by mark: labor day. has oil bottomed? what is the floor price? tom: we are up by $12 or $13 a barrel. i have to tell you that we could still test below 50 and maybe into the mid-40's very easily. if we do, i think it will be a confirmation of that ottoman process -- that auditing
2:35 pm
process. -- that bottoming process. it depends on what happens to the u.s. economy -- is it going to slow during the balance of the year or is it going to pick up? it turns a lot of what's happening with the negotiations between the u.s. and iran land whether there is the expectation we might have more iranian oil coming on the market not just for a quarter or two, but for the next 12 to 18 months after there is an agreement. mark: is that which you mean by being humble about all of this? they're just too many extraneous factors that could change on a dime? tom: you are exactly right and that is well put. another way to think of it is we are trying to solve a rubik's cube that has been fully extended. we may get to the point where we solve a rubik's cube but if you
2:36 pm
think of each of the cubes that make it up, what's happening in turkey, what is happening in syria, what is happening in terms of asian demand growth and what is happening with russia there are some big events that are not predictable now. overall, i'm feeling more confident that we are closer to having more information where we can say we have put in a bottom but that doesn't mean we retest that bottom. mark: always a pleasure to have you on the broadcast. thank you for your time. up next, we will look at how investors are dealing with a lack of reliable data from venezuela. our latin america report is next. ♪
2:37 pm
2:38 pm
2:39 pm
mark: welcome back.
2:40 pm
it is time for today's latin america report. bond investors suspect the venezuelan government is running low on cash, but how low? no one truly knows. venezuela has stopped releasing even the most basic economic data on a timely basis and that has become a problem for investors. how are investors able to make decisions on investments in venezuela if there is a data vacuum? guest: i was just speaking with someone who said it's like a surgeon operating without a next rate. you are in the dark. what economists are scrambling to do is create alternative data series. you have bank of america deutsche bank, economists at all of these banks are trying to put together something that will be helpful to investors. they need to come up with inflation numbers and government spending numbers.
2:41 pm
government spending hasn't then reported since 2013. mark: this is basically their best guest -- best guess because they do not have hard data to rely on. guest: one of them described it as being a private investigator you are just piecing together something to give investors an alternative. investors i talked to have data series from all the different economist and are conservative from there. mark: the international monetary fund seems to be ok with this data. why are they ok with it? guest: they censored argentina for misreporting inflation and economic data. but during the imf meetings, the deputy director said venezuela reports in a lag.
2:42 pm
if you imply it wasn't misreporting the data if you are an investor you don't have time to wait for a lag. mark: speaking of legs, let's look at the historical arc from when hugo chavez was president to now. how is there a difference? guest: folks are telling me it has gotten much worse. if they reported a lag, it wasn't super credible, under the new president the inflation rate and black market has skyrocketed. mark: any idea why this is happening? guest: there are things that are painful to report and we can't know what's going on there. in argentina they fired the whole statistics department had just put in their own people, so it's not as clear as that.
2:43 pm
we as investors are grasping at straws. mark: the lack of data -- how is that showing up as far as an appetite for venezuelan debt? guest: investors in venezuela are very concerned about default. they'll have 20 billion in reserved. how much is actually cash -- it's a question of how much they could sell in an emergency, so there are massive premiums and risk involved in this. it has always been reflected in venezuela. all countries that are sketchy with their data, they have to pay up in the bond market. with oil crashing, you need to know the data now. in the traders and derivatives market, this is the third riskiest country in the world after ukraine and greece. mark: thank you. that is today's latin america
2:44 pm
report. still ahead, lessons from fashion icons. we will look at what determined to makes the cut in the highly competitive fashion industry. the creator of new york fashion week joins me when "bottom line" continues in just a moment.
2:45 pm
2:46 pm
2:47 pm
mark: welcome back. the national football league has one final approval of a $765 million settlement of explain or head injury claims. a federal judge ruled the revised deal covering more than 20,000 players was fair. the ruling is expected to be appealed by opponents who argue the money falls short and deal terms are unfair. a group including billionaire tony ressler and grant hill has won the bid to buy the atlanta hawks according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. the sale price was $730 million.
2:48 pm
that is a look at the top stories we are following. fashion is a trillion dollar global industry. what does it take to make the cut in this crowded and highly competitive world? the creator of new york fashion week joins me now. it's a pleasure to meet you. i was reading the "in style" website -- here is how martha stewart described you. she's a professional in a difficult and fickle world. how have you managed to navigate the absent flows of fashion globally? guest: by being nice. that was my mantra, be nice. i've been involved for over 30 years. mark: as i mentioned in the intro, it can be known as cutthroat. how are you cutthroat in a competitive industry? guest: i am not cutthroat, but
2:49 pm
the industry is. it's very competitive, but it is very rewarding when it works. it has been an enormous economic engine. mark: what does that industry due to new york? fern: fashion week creates billions of dollars in the new york economy. fashion week started -- i had just been hired by the council of fashion designers to be the director and it was market week. michael kors had a fashion show in an empty space. they put the music on and when the music goes on at the fashion show, anything not nailed down moves will stop the ceiling came down and they brushed it off and kept walking. chunks of leicester landed in
2:50 pm
the laps of the fashion editor of "the new york times." they wrote the next day that they live for fashion but they don't want to die for it. mark: the business of fashion -- how does it balance need to be trailblazing with the understanding successful businesses listen to what their clients want? fern: a successful business should listen to what clients want. some listen and some don't. the ones who listen obviously listen to their customers. the best ones in the ones featured in my book are the ones who spent their life going to trunk shows and working hand-in-hand with their clients, knowing what they want and making close that self -- making clothes that sell. mark: what do you think of the rise of fashion bloggers? do they have too much influence?
2:51 pm
fern: it is the future. we cannot ignore the way things are shifting and moving in technology has become such an integral part of how it is -- others have a website and have no garlic -- have no knowledge of the history or reference collection. they are able to say this works because of this. but it's a democratic world. everyone is a reviewer and a critic. mark: the book is part and parcel of the interviews you have been doing since 1997. why do these fashion icons open up to you in a way that leaves them so vulnerable? fern: thank you for saying that. i think it is because i know most of them very well. mark: you ask them blunt questions.
2:52 pm
fern: i do a lot of research and homework and i warm them up about their astrology signs. then their parents, families and what their bedroom looks like what their house looks like. you are already into this warm and cozy story of their lives and they are comfortable. i'm not asking them something that they are going to look at bingo wide you ask that? mark: do the icons tell you their failures taught more than their successes? fern: yes. very important. their failures and bankruptcies not partying at studio 54 at night. mark: her book is out now. you had the book party yesterday. fern: you can buy the book at
2:53 pm
saks amazon and everywhere. mark: we will be back in just a moment. ♪
2:54 pm
2:55 pm
mark: get the latest headlines at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio and at streaming on your tablet. that does it for this edition of "bottom line." thank you so much for joining us. off the charts with scarlet fu is up next. i will see you on thursday. scarlet: uncertainty over when
2:56 pm
the fed will raise interest rates isn't exactly causing the swing in asset prices you might expect. where is the volatility in the u.s. stock market? joining me is the chief global strategist at wheaton and company. you came bearing gifts. this is on the different between u.s. and european stocks. the spread between the v stocks and the vix. there shows that it shows a conscious uncoupling. what is it telling us? guest: there's a fear, a spike in volatility becoming uncorrelated with each other. as you were just suggesting, in the euro zone, we have had a spike in the volatility while our vix has been contracting.
2:57 pm
ultimately, that's a healthy sign we are far from those risk on, risk off dates so if it's a factor like the grease problems aggravating europe or good old-fashioned profit taking after an aggressive rally in the eurozone, it is healthy to see that conscious decoupling of allah till at the across margins. scarlet: does it tell us anything about risk on-risk off process in the future. guest: that paradigm is at least for the moment it seems to be fading and the systemic risk seizures are right now pretty low. scarlet: let's move on to our second chart which comes back to this idea -- it combines the balance sheets of the fed, the bank of japan and the boe.
2:58 pm
we got a pop in and the study move higher because of the end of the fed's qe program. then we have this green arrow. what does it show us? alix: guest: it is what the bank of japan and ecb have pledged they are going to be doing. it's a sort of global stimulus. it ultimately came down to zero. that trajectory what you see is if the doj and ecb stay with what they have talked about, it's a pretty reasonable assumption. you can see the overall trajectory of global stimulus is as high as we have seen over the last six or seven years. what that means for the united
2:59 pm
states is more rate suppression and in turn, more volatility suppression. thanks to lower rates. the 10 year continues to not really move higher than the 2% level. scarlet: until the ecb and doj and the program. guest: then it is a very different card game. scarlet: "street smart" is next with alix steel. ♪
3:00 pm
alix: welcome to the most important hour of the session -- we have 60 minutes left until the closing bell. stocks are climbing toward the record as investors weigh quarterly results from coca-cola to mcdonald's. we have treasuries sliding on speculation interest rates will climb this year. and we are counting down to earnings from qualcomm, facebook and ebay. "street smart" starts now. here are the top stories we are watching ahead of the closing bell. goldman sachs is seeking to raise about $3

82 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on